David A. Wallsh ______________________________________________________________________________________________ EDUCATION The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Medford, MA PhD in International Relations May 2018 Field Exams: International Security Studies, Middle East Studies Dissertation: Switching Sides: Foreign Policy Realignment in Syria and Egypt MA in Law and Diplomacy May 2011 Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem MA in Islamic and Middle East Studies August 2009 Honors: 4.0 GPA, summa cum laude University of Florida Gainesville, FL BA in Political Science May 2005 Study Abroad in Prague, Ice Hockey Team PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Center for Naval Analyses Arlington, VA Research Analyst, Center for Strategic Studies 2017-present • Conduct analyses of international security issues including regional political-military dynamics, irregular warfare, and international security cooperation, among other topics. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy (Middle East) Washington, DC Expert Advisor on Counter-ISIL Strategy / Jordan Policy Director 2014-2016 Expert Advisor on Israeli-Palestinian Security 2013-2014 • Advised the Secretary of Defense and Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy (OSD Policy) leadership on matters relating to the Middle East security environment, including preparation for engagements with foreign counterparts and staffing U.S. leadership travel to the Middle East; • Managed multiple transnational initiatives involving regional security cooperation and security assistance; • Advised DoD leadership on communication strategies regarding official statements and speeches, Congressional testimonies, and press inquires; • Advised the Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense for Middle East Security on Israeli-Palestinian security matters in support of 2013-2014 Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Al-Nakhlah Online Journal on Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization Medford, MA Co-Editor-in-Chief 2010-2011 • Managed policy-oriented research related to the Middle East and Islamic world. Israel-Palestine Center for Research and Information Jerusalem Project Manager, Israeli-Palestinian Business Forum 2008 • Managed project aimed at mitigating conflict through joint bilateral commerce; Co-authored a 90-page business guide to help local businesses manage risk while conducting cross-border trade. Acknowledgments This dissertation is the product of the support of many individuals and institutions. I would first like to thank my dissertation committee, Professors Robert Pfaltzgraff, Richard Shultz, and Malik Mufti, for their time, guidance, and expertise. In addition to fostering my intellectual development, my advisors provided invaluable flexibility during a three-year period in which I left campus in order to serve in government, and I am indebted to their patience. I would also like to recognize Professors Andrew Hess and Bill Martel for their mentorship during my time at Fletcher, as well as Ph.D. Program Director Jenifer Burcket- Picker for helping me to navigate this program through her sustained support and encouragement. I am equally fortunate to have received the financial support of many generous institutions. Thank you to the Fletcher School and the Fletcher School Ph.D. Program, the Eisenhower Institute at Gettysburg College (Eisenhower-Roberts Fellowship), The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation (Bradley Foundation Fellowship), the Fares Center for Mediterranean Studies (Dissertation Fellowship), and both the International Security Studies Program at Fletcher and the Sarah Scaife Memorial Grant in International Security. Lastly, I would be remiss if I did not also thank the librarians at Tufts University’s Tisch Library and the Fletcher School’s Ginn Library for their consistently reliable and friendly assistance and for cancelling not a few overdue book fines over the years. My tour-de-horizon of the Fletcher School would not be complete, however, without mention of the friends and colleagues with whom I shared countless brainstorming sessions, presentation dry runs, and fun times. To Mike Baskin, Matt Herbert, Nick Kenney, David Knoll, Barbara Ramos, and Ivan Rasmussen, thank you for your friendship. During my final year of graduate school I had the great fortune to hole up in a Delaware bungalo and concentrate on my writing. For that opportunity I am deeply grateful to my mother- and father-in-law, Nina and Sol, for granting use of their home for this adventure. My in-laws’ support, generosity, and willingness to engage in foreign policy discussion know few bounds, and I count my lucky stars that my amazing wife happens to come from an amazing family. In addition, I would like to express my appreciation to Ms. Margaret Melson at the local public library for helping me to take full advantage of Delaware’s interlibrary loan system. To my parents, Richard and Harriet Wallsh, simply put, I could not have reached this milestone without your love and inspiration. My parents have have nourished my interest in the world, instilled in me the values of service and seeking to make the world a better place, and encouraged me in my pursuits, and it is to them that I dedicate this dissertation. Finally, it would be impossible to capture the words to fully convey my love and indebtedness to my wife, Tamar, who stood by my side my throughout this process, encouraging, reassuring, and ultimately driving me to the finish line. Tamar more than any other bore the brunt of the sacrifices involved in writing a dissertation, and I am blessed to have her in my life. Dedicated to my parents, Richard and Harriet Wallsh Switching Sides: Foreign Policy Realignment in Egypt and Syria, 1970-2000 David Wallsh Dissertation in support of requirements for Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in International Relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Advisor Committee: Dr. Robert Pfatlzgraff, Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies (Chair) Dr. Richard Shultz, Lee E. Dirks Professor and Director, International Security Studies Program Dr. Malik Mufti, Professor, Tufts University Department of Political Science Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 1 PART I: EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY DIVERGENCE IN THE 1970S 20 CHAPTER 2: EGYPTIAN FOREIGN POLICY REALIGNMENT (1970-1979) 23 CHAPTER 3: SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY NON-REALIGNMENT (1970-1979) 48 PART II: SYRIAN NON-REALIGNMENT FROM IRAN 80 CHAPTER 4: SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY NON-REALIGNMENT (1985-1989) 80 CHAPTER 5: SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY NON-REALIGNMENT (1991-2000) 105 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 126 BIBLIOGRAPHY 134 Chapter 1: Introduction Why do states realign their foreign policies between competing adversarial blocs? In other words, why do they “switch sides”? Such “Brutus-like betrayals”1 may be rare but, when they occur, are nevertheless some of the most important phenomena in international politics. For example, Egypt’s realignment in the 1970s from Soviet client state to American partner has served as a cornerstone of U.S. Middle East security strategy for approximately forty years. Syria’s durable alignments with Moscow for most of that period and later with Iran, in contrast, stand as a longstanding challenge to the United States and to many of its regional allies. The primary research questions driving this study are: Why did Egypt and Syria adopt such dramatically different foreign policy trajectories following the 1973 Arab-Israeli War? And why, in a region known for its constantly shifting alliances, did Syria’s alignment preferences largely persist throughout Hafiz al-Asad’s thirty-year presidency from 1970 to 2000. Indeed, if the decades after post-colonial independence and leading up to 1973 war witnessed the overlap of Egyptian and Syrian foreign policy interests, the mid-1970s stands out as the period during which these interests dramatically diverge. Underlying this question is a more general theoretical inquiry into why states realign their foreign policies between adversarial poles, a phenomenon that is crucial to understanding international politics beyond any one time or space. As one Chinese scholar recently wrote, “the core of competition between China and the United States will be to see who has more high-quality friends.”2 As such, I examine multiple cases of Egyptian and Syrian realignment decision-making in order to glean theoretical insights regarding this behavior. This introductory chapter proceeds as follows. The first section explains why the divergence of Egyptian and Syrian foreign policy in the 1970s is so perplexing in light of both the historical record and international relations theory. I then define and discuss key concepts of this study before providing an overview of the relevant theoretical literature. The subsequent research design section is comprised of many parts. I open with a discussion of my theoretical argument and propose three hypotheses for testing. Following that, I provide a detailed explanation of my case selection before concluding with a discussion of my research methodology. The Puzzle Both the historical and theoretical literature suggests that the divergence of Egyptian and Syrian foreign policies in the 1970s is a puzzle that merits explanation. For one reason, the two countries share a history of common foreign policy interests. Both adhered to a doctrine 1 Timothy Crawford, “Preventing Enemy Coalitions,” International Security 35, no. 4 (Spring 2011): 165. 2 Xuetong Yan, “How China Can Defeat America,” The New York Times, November 20,