2012 Election Analysis Revenge of the Amendments

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2012 Election Analysis Revenge of the Amendments Steve Peterson Top of the Ticket in MN The Talking Heads The Other Winner Nate Silver & Math! Popular Vote Nate Silver & Math! • Electoral College Nate Silver & Math! • Chance to Win Amy! Amy! Amy! MN State Legislature • 11 DFL House seats – 5 Greater MN – 6 Metro • 9 DFL Senate Seats – 3 Greater – 6 Metro Turnout, Turnout, Turnout Voter Excitement? VOTE NO SD w/Higher No Votes, Higher Overall Turnout Yes Voters – No Increase in Turnout Suburban Turnout Driven by No Vote Greater MN Turnout Not Driven by Vote Yes Marriage Amendment Senate Metro Map Photo ID’s Surprise Defeat Survey USA Polling Photo ID Resistance Increased 50+ and Greater MN Huge DFL Vote Increase in Senate Senate Swap Senate History 2010 Senate Margin of Victory 2012 Senate Margin of Victory Metro Senate Map 2010 vs. 2012 Senate Map 2010 vs. 2012 Fewer Greater MN Seats GOP Senate Majority Caucus 2011 DFL Senate Majority Caucus 2013 Senate Leadership and Key Chairs • Majority Leader - Tom Bakk • Assistant Majority Leader – Katie Sebien • President – Sandra Pappas • Tax Chair – Rod Skoe • Finance Chair – Richard Cohen • Cap. Investment – LeRoy Stumpf (likely) GOP Senate Minority Caucus 2013 Minority Leadership • Minority Leader – David Hann • Asst. Minority Leader – Michelle Benson • Asst. Minority Leader – Roger Chamberlain • Asst. Minority Leader – Warren Limmer • Asst. Minority Leader – Dave Thompson Greater Minnesota Senate Delegation 2013 Large DFL Vote Increase House Swap House Party History 2010 House Margin of Victory 2012 House Margin of Victory GOP House Majority Caucus 2011 DFL House Majority Caucus 2013 House Leadership • Speaker - Paul Thissen • Majority Leader – Erin Murphy • Key Chairs? – Taxes – Ann Lenczewski – Cap. Investment – Alice Hausman – Finance – Lyndon Carlson GOP House Minority Caucus 2013 Greater Minnesota House Delegation 2013 Top Ten Votes GOP’s Trip Back to Minority • Weak Top of the Ticket • High Turnout • Amendments Backfired • Popular Governor Scorecard DFL GOP Governor 1 0 Statewide Offices 3 0 U.S. Senate 2 0 U.S. Representatives 5 3 MN Senates 39 28 MN House 73 61 Total 123 92 .

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