NAVER (035420 KS ) Growth engine shifting to the parent business
Internet 1Q17 review: In-line consolidated revenue, strong parent profits For 1Q17, NAVER’s consolidated revenue was in line with the market consensus, but consolidated operating profit slightly missed. LINE’s operating profit Results Comment contracted 25% YoY, but parent ope rating profit improved 26% YoY, which is April 28, 2017 positive given that the parent business accounts for the bulk (93%) of consolidated operating profit.
Revenue: In its latest earnings release, NAVER changed its classification system , (Maintain) Buy dividing revenue into five segments (ads, business platform, IT platform, content services, and LINE and other platforms) instead of three (ads, content, and other) . All categories excluding content services recorded double-digit YoY revenue Target Price (12M, W) 1,160,000 growth in the quarter. The fastest growth came from the IT platform segment (NAVER Pay, etc.), where revenue surged 92% YoY. The business platform segment Share Price (04/27/17, W) 791,000 (search ads, etc.) grew 13% YoY, while the ads segment (display ads, etc.) saw higher growth of 22% YoY. Expected Return 47% Profits: Despite LINE’s disappointing performance, NAVER’s consolidated operating profit expanded 13% YoY, and net profit climbed 28% YoY. Among operating
expense items (consolidated), agent/partner expenses (which are more variable in OP (17F, Wbn) 1,274 nature) and marketing spend rose 20% and 7% YoY, respectively. As for LINE, Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 1,327 spending on LINE Pay and its MVNO continued to increase, and expenses related to engineer hiring look likely to head higher. EPS Growth (17F, %) 18.9 Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 34.1 Growing parent businesses to capture increasing attention P/E (17F, x) 29.3 In 2017, we believe investors’ focus will move to fast-growing segments of the Market P/E (17F, x) 9.6 parent business. KOSPI 2,209.46 Parent: IT platform, business platform, and video ads are the key areas of growth , in our view. The IT platform segment is currently being driven by NAVER Pay, but Market Cap (Wbn) 26,073 should see additional growth momentum from the global cloud business, which is Shares Outstanding (mn) 33 set to get underway in 2Q17. The business platform business mostly consists of Free Float (%) 76.6 search ads. While the global search ad market is forecast to grow 5% YoY in 2017, Foreign Ownership (%) 61.1 we expect NAVER’s search ad revenue to grow faster at 15%. Indeed, the company’s search ad revenue jumped 13% YoY in 1Q17, boosted by shopping search ads Beta (12M) 0.48 (rolled out in November 2016). Revenue from video ads was also robust , growing 52-Week Low 659,000 36% YoY in 1Q17. 52-Week High 900,000 Overseas: This year, LINE is expected to focus its growth strategy on ads rather (%) 1M 6M 12M than content. Meanwhile, content and video mobile services like V Live, Snow, and Absolute -10.6 -7.9 18.9 Webtoon—which have a larger user base overseas than domestically—are Relative -12.8 -15.6 8.5 continuing steady growth. As standalone firms, Snow and Webtoon could also positively contribute to enterprise value.
140 NAVER KOSPI 130 Reiterate Buy and TP of W1,160,000 120 We keep our Buy rating on NAVER with a target price of W1,160,000. We are 110 encouraged that the parent business, a core part of the company’s enterprise 100 value, is finding promising sources of growth. While investments are steadily 90 increasing, we do not think they are unreasonably high considering the sheer size of the company’s revenue and cash flow. 80 4.16 8.16 12.16 4.17
FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Revenue (Wbn) 2,758 3,254 4,023 4,715 5,467 6,240
[Internet/Game/Advertising ] OP (Wbn) 758 830 1,102 1,274 1,548 1,812 OP margin (%) 27.5 25.5 27.4 27.0 28.3 29.0 Jee -hyun Moon NP (Wbn) 454 519 749 891 1,073 1,249 +822 -3774 -1640 [email protected] EPS (W) 13,787 15,737 22,732 27,025 32,556 37,905 ROE (%) 27.8 26.5 26.2 22.1 21.6 20.5
P/E (x) 51.6 41.8 34.1 29.3 24.3 20.9
P/B (x) 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
April 28, 2017 NAVER
Earnings and forecasts
Table 1. 1Q17 review (Wbn, %) 1Q17P Growth
1Q16 4Q16 Mirae Asset Preliminary Consensus YoY QoQ Daewoo Revenue 937 1,085 1,082 1,091 1,085 15.5 -0.2 Operating profit 257 290 291 306 302 13.2 0.2 OP margin 27.4 26.7 26.9 28.1 27.9
Net profit 165 183 211 213 216 27.8 15.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings and forecasts (Wbn, %) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F Revenue 937 987 1,013 1,085 1,082 1,160 1,185 1,287 4,023 4,715 Ads 82 97 98 123 100 117 116 143 400 475 Business platform 450 462 462 491 510 536 536 563 1,866 2,145 IT platform 23 28 31 39 43 53 56 76 121 229 Content services 31 27 23 23 24 25 26 27 103 101 LINE and other platforms 353 373 399 409 406 429 451 478 1,534 1,764 Operating profit 257 273 282 290 291 319 320 345 1,102 1,274 OP margin 27.4 27.6 27.9 26.7 26.9 27.5 27.0 26.8 27.4 27.0 Net profit 165 213 198 183 211 228 229 239 759 909 Net margin 17.6 21.6 19.5 16.9 19.5 19.6 19.3 18.6 18.9 19.3 YoY Revenue 26.6 26.3 20.5 21.7 15.5 17.5 17.0 18.7 23.6 17.2 Ads 22.3 21.0 18.0 16.0 19.0
Business platform 13.3 16.0 16.0 14.7 15.0
IT platform 92.0 90.0 82.0 95.1 90.0
Content services -23.7 -10.0 15.1 20.4 -2.0
LINE and other platforms 15.1 15.0 13.0 16.8 15.0
Operating profit 32.1 44.0 27.6 28.9 13.2 16.9 13.4 18.7 32.7 15.6 Net profit 22.7 71.8 69.5 29.6 27.8 6.8 15.5 30.3 46.8 19.7 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; revenue was reclassified into five segments: ads, business platform, IT platform, content services, and LINE and other platforms; new classification only applies from 2016; ads include general and shopping display ads and video ads; business platform includes general and shopping search ads; IT platform includes NAVER Pay, IT services, and cloud services; content services include music, Webtoon, and V Live; LINE and other platforms include LINE, Camp Mobile, and Snow Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Table 3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 17F 18F 17F 18F 17F 18F Revenue 4,696 5,448 4,715 5,467 0.4 0.3 - Revised up cost estimates related to LINE and Operating profit 1,371 1,645 1,274 1,548 -7.0 -5.9 other platforms Net profit 941 1,135 909 1,095 -3.4 -3.5 - Revised up non-operating profit estimates EPS 28,184 33,979 27,025 32,556 -4.1 -4.2 OP margin 29.1 31.0 27.0 28.3 Net margin 20.0 21.4 19.3 20.0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling and non-controlling interests; EPS is attributable to controlling interests Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 28, 2017 NAVER
Key trends
Figure 1. Ad s: Affected by seasonality; mobile contribution on Figure 2. Business platform: Mobile and shopping search ads the rise driving up growth
(Wbn) (Wbn) 150 Ad revenue 540 Business platform revenue +13% YoY +4% QoQ 510 120 +22% YoY -19% QoQ
90 480
60 450
30 420
0 390 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P
Note: Excluding LINE and other platforms Note: Excluding LINE and other platforms Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Figure 3. IT platform: NAVER Pay made the greatest Figure 4. Content services : Impact from transfer of app store contribution; On a steep uptrend business faded YoY; V Live starting to contribute to earnings
(Wbn) (Wbn) 60 IT platform revenue 40 Content services revenue
+92% YoY 45 +11% QoQ 30 -24% YoY +4% YoY
30 20
15 10
0 0 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P
Note: Excluding LINE and other platforms Note: Excluding LINE and other platforms Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Figure 5. LINE: Content revenue stagnated, but ad revenue Figure 6. R&D/ capex : Trending up, but still not burdensome rose relative to revenue
(Wbn) (Wbn) 420 R&D costs Capex LINE/other platforms revenue +15% YoY 300 26% of revenue -1% QoQ 250 400
200 380 150 360 7% of 100 revenue 340 50
320 0 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17P
Note: Including LINE, Camp Mobile, and Snow Note: Consolidated data Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 April 28, 2017 NAVER
NAVER (035420 KS/Buy/TP: W1,160,000)
Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Revenue 4,023 4,715 5,467 6,240 Current Assets 4,200 5,421 6,797 8,332 Cost of Sales 0 0 0 0 Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,726 2,486 3,417 4,474 Gross Profit 4,023 4,715 5,467 6,240 AR & Other Receivables 694 823 931 1,063 SG&A Expenses 2,921 3,440 3,919 4,429 Inventories 10 12 14 16 Operating Profit (Adj) 1,102 1,274 1,548 1,812 Other Current Assets 1,770 2,100 2,435 2,779 Operating Profit 1,102 1,274 1,548 1,812 Non-Current Assets 2,171 2,174 2,211 2,276 Non-Operating Profit 30 64 60 59 Investments in Associates 182 216 251 286 Net Financial Income 30 44 58 74 Property, Plant and Equipment 863 735 633 553 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -9 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 112 95 83 73 Pretax Profit 1,132 1,338 1,608 1,871 Total Assets 6,371 7,595 9,008 10,608 Income Tax 361 427 513 597 Current Liabilities 1,804 2,098 2,396 2,703 Profit from Continuing Operations 771 912 1,095 1,275 AP & Other Payables 425 504 584 667 Profit from Discontinued Operations -12 -3 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 227 227 227 227 Net Profit 759 909 1,095 1,275 Other Current Liabilities 1,152 1,367 1,585 1,809 Controlling Interests 749 891 1,073 1,249 Non-Current Liabilities 437 491 545 601 Non-Controlling Interests 10 18 22 25 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 150 150 150 150 Total Comprehensive Profit 724 909 1,095 1,275 Other Non-Current Liabilities 287 341 395 451 Controlling Interests 733 998 1,202 1,400 Total Liabilities 2,241 2,589 2,942 3,304 Non-Controlling Interests -9 -89 -107 -125 Controlling Interests 3,595 4,453 5,492 6,704 EBITDA 1,265 1,420 1,662 1,901 Capital Stock 16 16 16 16 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 1,010 1,251 1,433 1,574 Capital Surplus 1,217 1,217 1,217 1,217 EBITDA Margin (%) 31.4 30.1 30.4 30.5 Retained Earnings 3,810 4,669 5,707 6,919 Operating Profit Margin (%) 27.4 27.0 28.3 29.0 Non-Controlling Interests 535 553 575 600 Net Profit Margin (%) 18.6 18.9 19.6 20.0 Stockholders' Equity 4,130 5,006 6,067 7,304
Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Cash Flows from Op Activities 1,164 1,251 1,433 1,574 P/E (x) 34.1 29.3 24.3 20.9 Net Profit 759 909 1,095 1,275 P/CF (x) 18.5 18.2 15.7 13.8 Non-Cash Income and Expense 624 522 565 608 P/B (x) 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.2 Depreciation 146 128 102 80 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.2 15.9 12.8 10.5 Amortization 17 17 13 9 EPS (W) 22,732 27,025 32,556 37,905 Others 461 377 450 519 CFPS (W) 41,966 43,417 50,345 57,114 Chg in Working Capital 88 197 224 209 BPS (W) 150,192 176,242 207,749 244,518 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -56 -89 -90 -92 DPS (W) 1,131 1,200 1,300 1,400 Chg in Inventories 0 -2 -2 -2 Payout ratio (%) 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2 Chg in AP & Other Payables 11 0 0 0 Dividend Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Income Tax Paid -339 -425 -513 -597 Revenue Growth (%) 23.6 17.2 15.9 14.1 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -942 -426 -432 -444 EBITDA Growth (%) 28.3 12.3 17.0 14.4 Chg in PP&E -97 0 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 32.8 15.6 21.5 17.1 Chg in Intangible Assets -21 0 0 0 EPS Growth (%) 44.4 18.9 20.5 16.4 Chg in Financial Assets -662 -426 -432 -444 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.9 Others -162 0 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 311.2 416.8 412.4 409.4 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 698 -32 -35 -37 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg in Financial Liabilities -290 0 0 0 ROA (%) 14.1 13.0 13.2 13.0 Chg in Equity 1,084 0 0 0 ROE (%) 26.2 22.1 21.6 20.5 Dividends Paid -32 -32 -35 -37 ROIC (%) 169.2 389.2 -1,939.1 -400.5 Others -64 0 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 54.3 51.7 48.5 45.2 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 913 759 932 1,057 Current Ratio (%) 232.8 258.4 283.6 308.2 Beginning Balance 813 1,726 2,486 3,417 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -73.1 -81.6 -87.9 -92.0 Ending Balance 1,726 2,486 3,417 4,474 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 181.5 272.0 330.4 386.6 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 April 28, 2017 NAVER
APPENDIX 1
Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History
Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) NAVER NAVER (035420) 04/04/2017 Buy 1,160,000 1,500,000 No Coverage 08/30/2016 Buy 1,050,000 1,000,000 04/28/2016 Buy 900,000 07/30/2015 Buy 820,000 05/04/2015 Buy 890,000 500,000 04/03/2015 Buy 1,050,000
0 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price ( ─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy ( ▲), Trading Buy ( ■), Hold ( ●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Equity Ratings Distribution Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell 72.86% 15.58% 11.56% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2017)
Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject co mpany and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.
Disclaimers This report is published by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 April 28, 2017 NAVER
the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.
Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Mirae Asset Securities (UK) Ltd. in the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “Relevant Persons”). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U.S. by Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U.S. persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U.S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Mirae Asset Securities (USA) Inc., which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U.S. The securities described in this report may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U.S. or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Mirae Asset Securities (HK) Ltd., which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person. All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Mirae Asset Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 April 28, 2017 NAVER
Mirae Asset Daewoo International Network
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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7