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Early Election Strategy Investing for New Majority

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Early Election Strategy Investing for New Majority California Donor Table EARLY ELECTION STRATEGY INVESTING FOR NEW 20MAJORITY 20VICTORIES OUR 2020 CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS have new significance in the 2020 EARLY presidential election; with the primary moved up to Super Tuesday ELECTION (March 3, 2020) and recent voter reforms, the state is on track STRATEGY for historic turnout. In February 2019, voter registration in California topped 20 million (79% of people eligible to vote) for the first time ever, with the growth led by Los Angeles, San Diego, San Bernardino, Orange and Riverside Counties, regions in which CDT invests in new majority voter turnout. CDT has opportunities to endorse and invest early to lay the groundwork for the electoral victories we need up and down the ballot in 2020—beginning at the local level. CDT partner Million Voter Project is leading the Schools and Communities First ballot initiative to close the commercial tax loophole in Proposition 13 and restore $11 billion to schools and community services annually. The restored funding would be allocated by city councils, county boards of supervisors, school boards and other For further CDT analysis and local governing bodies. These bodies are some of the guidance on making informed, strategic investment decisions last and most conservative strongholds in regions that contact our team: are increasingly more diverse and progressive. We need Ludovic Blain, Executive Director to help elect more progressive candidates up and down [email protected] the ballot to move a progressive agenda forward at all Tim Molina, Senior Political Strategist levels of government. [email protected] This early election strategy document outlines how you Irene Kao, Strategist [email protected] can support our partner regional tables’ and community groups’ early electoral work, especially mobilizing new majority voters in overlapping congressional, state legislative and local governance districts. It also spotlights our early endorsements of candidates who have proven track records as progressive leaders. We will share another strategy with additional endorsements in early fall, then more as the elections develop through November 2020. CALIFORNIA DONOR TABLE 2020 EARLY ELECTION STRATEGY 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 6 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY CDT PARTNER Lift Up Contra Costa County Action CDT SUPPORTED CANDIDATE Aisha Wahab for Congress PAGE 4 CENTRAL VALLEY CDT PARTNER Communities for a New California Action Fund CDT ENDORSED CANDIDATE Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs PAGE 15 SAN FRANCISCO PAGE 8 BAY AREA INLAND EMPIRE CDT PARTNERS CDT PARTNER Bay Area Rising Action Inland Empire United San Francisco Rising Action Fund CDT ENDORSED CANDIDATE Chesa Boudin for District Attorney 2019 PAGE 9 LOS ANGELES COUNTY CDT ENDORSED CANDIDATE Holly Mitchell for Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors PAGE 13 SAN DIEGO PAGE 11 COUNTY ORANGE COUNTY CDT PARTNERS CDT PARTNER Engage San Diego Orange County Civic Action Fund Engagement Table Action Alliance San Diego Mobilization Fund CDT SUPPORTED CANDIDATE Ammar Campa-Najjar for Congress CALIFORNIA DONOR TABLE 2020 EARLY ELECTION STRATEGY 3 CENTRAL CDT PARTNER Communities for a New California Action Fund (CNC Action Fund) VALLEY Pablo Rodriguez, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR [email protected] TOTAL POPULATION 6.5 MILLION CNC Action Fund is a statewide 501(c)(4) civil and human rights organization committed to achieving public policy that is socially, economically, and environmentally just for California’s families. CNC Action Fund has chapters in the Central Coast, San Joaquin Valley, Imperial and Coachella Valley. 2020 Early Election Strategy CNC Action Fund is prioritizing the Fresno mayoral race and protection of the recently flipped congressional districts 10 and 21. CNC Action Fund is also planning to engage in congressional districts 16 and 22. FRESNO MAYOR Republican incumbent Republican Mayor Lee Brand is not running for re-election after being pushed out by the Republican establishment who do not believe he can defeat Democratic candidate Andrew Janz, a Fresno County prosecutor who challenged Republican incumbent Devin Nunes in CD22 in 2018. Janz is running against Fresno City Councilmember Luis Chavez (the city council is nonpartisan, but Chavez ran as a Democrat for State Senate district 14 in 2014) and likely extremely conservative and corruption-ridden Fresno Police Chief Jerry Dyer. POPULATION BY RACE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 10 (STANISLAUS) 2% TWO OR Democratic incumbent Josh Harder will be protecting his CD10 seat, which the MORE RACES 1% OTHER National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is targeting in 2020. 4% AFRICAN RACES Harder is facing four Republican challengers in this Leans Democratic district AMERICAN and has raised nearly $900,000 in the first quarter of 2019 (he raised over 6% ASIAN 51% $8.4 million in 2018). AMERICAN WHITE & PACIFIC CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 21 (KINGS) ISLANDERS Democratic incumbent TJ Cox is protecting his CD21 seat, which the NRCC is 36% targeting in 2020. Cox is currently running unchallenged in this Toss-Up district. LATINX CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 16 (MERCED) Democratic incumbent Jim Costa is a moderate Democrat who has been consistently bad on immigration reform and farm worker issues. Progressive VOTING POPULATION Fresno City Council President Esmeralda Soria may run, which would make this 83% of eligible voters are race a priority. registered to vote CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 22 (FRESNO) 17% NON- 32% Republican incumbent Devin Nunes is running for re-election. The Democratic REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has made this a 2020 target, VOTERS although the DCCC has historically not proven to be a strong asset in Central 3% Valley races. Janz has thrown his support behind Latinx Democrat Phil Arballo, OTHER a financial advisor. PARTIES Early Election Budget $1,050,000 for new majority voter engagement up and down the ballot 23% NO PARTY 42% OVERLAPPING DISTRICTS PREFERENCE REPUBLICANS STATE LEGISLATURE AD21 (Merced), Safe Democratic: Moderate Democratic incumbent Adam Gray won in 2018 by 42.6% margin (44,000 votes); no challengers AD32 (Kings), Safe Democratic: Moderate Democratic incumbent Rudy Salas won in 2018 by 13.4% margin (9,000 votes); no challengers (CONTINUES NEXT PAGE) CALIFORNIA DONOR TABLE 2020 EARLY ELECTION STRATEGY 4 CENTRAL OTHER RELATED WORK CNC’s sister 501(c)(3) organization, CNC Education Fund, is leading 2020 VALLEY Census outreach to hard to count residents in the Central Valley. There is a (CON’T) large percentage of immigrant Latinx and Asian families in the region that live in mixed status families. CNC’s initial analysis found low and moderate propensity voters—especially Latinx, African Americans and Asians—significantly overlap with the top hard to count census blocks. These same census blocks are the ones most significantly impacted by budget cuts to schools, community colleges, vital community services such as parks, libraries, health clinics, safe roads and a«ordable housing. CNC specializes in engaging and mobilizing low/ moderate propensity voters to cast ballots, and will begin early Census 2020 education with the same voters. CDT ENDORSED CANDIDATE: Michael Tubbs is running for re-election as mayor MAYOR MICHAEL TUBBS, of Stockton, a city with a population of 310,000. STOCKTON He defeated the incumbent in 2016 to become Support Michael by making Stockton’s first Black mayor and, at 26, the youngest an online contribution via ActBlue or via check. If by person to hold that o®ce. Since then, Michael has check, please note in the received national attention for his public policy memo that the contribution innovations — launching Advance Peace, a program that provides is through California Donor people convicted with violent crimes with mentorship and stipends Table and send it to: to access help (which contributed to a 40% reduction in homicides Michael Tubbs and 30% reduction in violent crime), and piloting a basic income for Stockton Mayor 2020 program (nearly one in four people in Stockton live in poverty) to 4921 Alee Lane provide $500 a month to low-income residents with no requirements. Stockton, CA 95206 Prior to serving as mayor, Michael served for four years on the city FFPC #1380040 council, enacting criminal justice reforms, increasing investments There is no maximum in underserved areas of the city and building coalitions to address contribution in this race. community priorities. He is currently running unchallenged. We are endorsing Michael as a progressive champion with a promising political future ahead of him. CALIFORNIA DONOR TABLE 2020 EARLY ELECTION STRATEGY 5 CONTRA COSTA CDT PARTNER Lift Up Contra Costa County Action (LUCCA) COUNTY Jess Jollett, DIRECTOR [email protected] TOTAL POPULATION: 1.1 MILLION LUCCA, a 501(c)(4) project of Tides Advocacy Fund, is a group of economic, labor, environmental and racial justice organizations that have come together to develop a county-wide civic engagement table. PARTICIPATING GROUPS/PARTNERS: Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment Action, Asian Pacific Environmental Network Action, Communities for a Better Environment Action, Contra Costa AFL-CIO Labor Council, Richmond Progressive Alliance, SEIU 1021, SEIU 2015, and The Safe Return Project Action. 2020 Early Election Strategy LUCCA is prioritizing two Board of Supervisor races —Districts 3 and 5 —in which they may have the opportunity to support more progressive and e«ective candidates of color. LUCCA is also looking to engage in opportunities
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