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Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 1993.Pdf ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 1993 UNITED NATIONS New York 1994 UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 1993 ST/ESCAP/1363 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.94.II.F.8 ISBN: 92-1-119634-5 ISSN: 0252-5704 ii FOREWORD The Economic and Social Survey o f Asia and the Pacific 1993 is the forty-seventh in the series of annual Surveys prepared by the secretariat. It provides information on recent economic and social developments in the region and analyses selected development issues. The Asian and Pacific region has once again distinguished itself by recording a high average growth rate in 1993 despite the lingering recession in the industrialized world and low growth in other developing regions. A particularly noteworthy feature is that a number of least developed countries have significantly improved their performance; however, the economies in transition in Central Asia continue to experience contraction in output. Economic growth in the region has been assisted by a variety of reforms in areas such as trade, investment, financial and fiscal policies implemented by Governments. Major recent reforms in these areas are highlighted in the context of the discussion on macroeconomic performance. Fiscal reform has been an important component of policy reforms. In most countries of the region, fiscal reform has achieved a substantial measure of success in augmenting government revenue, restraining the growth of expenditure, and reducing budgetary deficit. The incentive structure generated by reforms in tax bases and rates reflects the greater reliance on the private sector and more outward orientation of economies. At the same time, greater concern for the public provision of social services is evident from the changing patterns of allocation of expenditure. The region has undergone notable economic transformation resulting from sustained high rates of economic growth for many years. A rising share of manufacturing output in gross domestic product and rapid urbanization are but two manifestations of the transformation, which has not, however, been accompanied by a commensurate increase in the share of employment in manufacturing/urban sectors. This imbalance has been partly responsible for a number of social problems in the region. The progress achieved in social development with reference to selected issues such as poverty, employment, health and education is reviewed. The challenges that remain in these fields, as well as some emerging social problems such as crime and drug abuse, and their policy implications are highlighted. Finally, the Survey analyses the demographic change in respect of the rates of growth, age composition, and spatial distribution of population, and brings out their implications for education, health, employment and the environment. The emerging differentiated approaches to demographic issues in different countries, reflecting varying degrees of success in managing the transition in past years, are highlighted. As usual, the Survey is published on the responsibility of the ESCAP secretariat and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of member and associate member Governments. Rafeeuddin Ahmed Executive Secretary February 1994 iii CONTENTS Page I. World economic developments and prospects ............................................................... 1-15 The lingering recession Output trends Unemployment Demand de ation Constraints on policy International trade, balance of payments and ance Trade slow-down Payment imbalances Development nance Short-term prospects and implications for development in the ESCAP region II. Macroeconomic performance and policies in the ESCAP region ............................. 16-49 A perspective of the region Performance by subregion: major indicators East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia Output growth Demand components In ation Policy response The Central Asian republics Output growth Macroeconomic adjustment and in ation Paci island economies Output growth Structural adjustment and demand management Prices III. International trade and balance of payments: performance and policies ............. 50-66 Trade underpins region’s resilience Merchandise trade: performance in 1992-1993 East Asia South-East Asia South Asia The Central Asian republics Paci islands The invisibles and the payment balances East Asia South-East Asia South Asia IV. Fiscal reforms ..................................................................................................................... 67-84 Objectives Recent reform measures Taxes/revenues Direct taxes Indirect taxes Non-tax revenues v CONTENTS (continued) Page Expenditures Effecting economy Enhancing efficiency Reforming public enterprises Reform measures in economies in transition The impact Deficit reduction Expenditure restraint Revenue productivity and reorientation Concluding observations V. Economic transformation and social development ......................................................... 85-105 An overview Some aspects of transformation Income growth Composition of output and employment Urbanization Selected issues in social development Poverty The incidence of poverty Locational characteristics Poverty alleviation: an unfinished agenda Health and education Health Education Primary school enrolment and adult literacy Mean years of schooling Other selected issues Crime Substance abuse VI. Population dynamics: implications for development .................................................... 106-129 The dynamics of change Growth trends The age structure Sex composition Migration Implications for selected development issues Population and education Population and health Population and employment Population and the environment Policy approaches Stemming growth Spatial distribution Role of women Concluding observations vi BOXES Page I .1. Unemployment in industrialized countries: the causes and the cures.......................................... 4 I .2. The Uruguay Round concludes.................................................................................................... 11 I .3. Globalization: major aspects and implications for development .................................................. 14 II. 1. Potential for development through cooperation among neighbouring countries in Northeast Asia.. 19 II .2. The social problems accompanying the transition to a market economy ...................................... 23 II .3. National currencies in the Central Asian republics: evolution and implications .......................... 44 III. 1. Growth triangles: a new form of regional cooperation ................................................................ 52 III.2. Growing volume of capital inflows and related issues ................................................................. 61 IV. 1. Tax reforms in the Central Asian republics.................................................................................. 76 IV 2. Reducing military expenditure in the Asian and Pacific region.................................................... 80 V.l. GNP: an inadequate indicator of welfare.................................................................................... 87 V.2. Highlights of recommendations adopted by the First Session of the Committee on Poverty Alleviation through Economic Growth and Social Development................................. 95 V.3. Drug abuse, AIDS, prostitution and poverty: a complex nexus .................................................. 99 V 4. Ombudsman Commission: an instrument for the resolution of crime and conflict...................... 104 VI. 1. Towards a strengthened commitment for the welfare of the children ............................................ 110 VI.2. The drop-out problem in primary education................................................................................. 115 vii TABLES Page I .1. World output, 1989-1994................................................................................................................. 2 I .2. Summary indicators of changes in world trade, 1989-1994............................................................. 7 II .1. Forecast growth rates of gross domestic product at constant market prices, 1993-1995 ................ 17 I .2. Selected developing economies of the ESCAP region. Growth and inflation, 1989-1993 ............ 29 II.3. Selected economies of the ESCAP region. Summary of macroeconomic indicators, 1986-1992...................................................................................................................... 38 II .4. Economic performance indicators for the Central Asian republics.................................................. 43 III. 1. Total value and annual rates of change in dollar value of merchandise exports and imports, 1990-1993................................................................................................................... 56 III.2. Balance of payments: principal components, 1990-1993 ............................................................... 63 IV.1. Central government budgetary balance........................................................................................... 77 IV.2. Annual trend growth rates of central government expenditure in real terms.................................. 78 IV.3. Central government revenue buoyancies with respect to gross domestic product in selected developing economies in the ESCAP region ...............................................................
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