Overview of the Presidential Election Process
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“The Return of the Brokered Convention? Democratic Party Rules and Presidential Nominations.”
“The Return of the Brokered Convention? Democratic Party Rules and Presidential Nominations.” By Rick Farmer State of the Parties 2009 October 15-16 Akron OH Front loading, proportional representation and super delegates are changing the dynamic of the Democratic presidential nomination. Since 1976 capturing the early momentum was the key ingredient to winning. Barack Obama’s nomination in 2008 demonstrates how these three forces are converging to re-write the campaign playbook. Front loading created a 2008 Super Tuesday that approached national primary day status. Proportional delegate allocations kept the race close when another system might have put the delegate count out of reach; and with a different result. Super delegates made the final decision. The 2008 Democratic presidential contests produced, in effect, a brokered convention. Without reform, many more brokered conventions appear to be in their future. Below is a discussion of how the reforms of the 1970s and 80s combine to produce this perfect storm. Then, the 2008 campaign illustrates the effects. The major reform proposals are examined. Finally some conclusions are drawn. Reforms of the 1970s and 80s American political parties grant their nomination to a single candidate at a national convention. Both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party nominations can be won with a simple majority of the delegates. Delegates are pledged through a series of caucuses and primaries. Both parties are following similar calendars but Republican Party rules result in a different type of contest than Democratic Party rules. Parties have met in quadrennial national conventions for the purpose of selecting a presidential nominee since 1832. -
The Economist/Yougov Poll
The Economist/YouGov Poll Sample 2000 General Population Respondents Conducted April 8 - 11, 2016 Margin of Error ±2.8% 1. Some people seem to follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs ... ? Most of the time . 48% Some of the time . 30% Only now and then . .13% Hardly at all . 9% Don’t know . .1% 2. Would you say things in this country today are... Generally headed in the right direction . 26% Off on the wrong track . 62% Not sure . 11% 3. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don’t favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable know Hillary Clinton 21% 20% 12% 44% 2% Ted Cruz 11% 23% 19% 36% 12% John Kasich 7% 28% 24% 18% 23% Bernie Sanders 23% 28% 17% 26% 7% Donald Trump 18% 16% 11% 52% 3% 1 The Economist/YouGov Poll 4. How would you feel if the person listed below was the 2016 Democratic nominee for President? Asked of registered voters Satisfied Dissatisfied but not but not Enthusiastic enthusiastic upset Upset Not sure Hillary Clinton 22% 20% 12% 43% 3% Bernie Sanders 22% 29% 20% 23% 6% 5. Who do you think is the most likely candidate to become the Democratic nominee for president in 2016? Hillary Clinton . .60% Bernie Sanders . 21% Not sure . 20% 6. Regardless of who the Republicans select as their nominee, do you think the Democratic presidential candidates listed below could possibly win or could never win the general election in November if he or she was to become the Democratic nominee? Could possibly win Could never win Not sure Hillary Clinton 74% 14% 11% Bernie Sanders 58% 24% 18% 7. -
“Mcconnell Majorities” in Supreme Court Decision-Making
PRESIDENT-SHOPPING FOR A NEW SCALIA: THE ILLEGITIMACY OF “MCCONNELL MAJORITIES” IN SUPREME COURT DECISION-MAKING J. Stephen Clark* WASHINGTON, June 29—By the slimmest of margins, the Supreme Court today ended its decades of protecting abortion rights and overruled Roe v. Wade,1 the 1973 decision that established abortion as a constitutional right.2 The breaking news one day in June 2019 is the demise of Roe v. Wade. By a vote of 5-4, the Supreme Court has overruled the precedent and left the protection of abortion rights to the sole discretion of lawmakers. There had been no majority for such a decision until President Trump had the chance to make two appointments to the Court. One of those appointees wrote the majority opinion. Perhaps fittingly, the author of the opinion was the successor to the late Justice Antonin Scalia, who strove for this goal more vigorously than any member of the Court since 1973. Of course, every supporter of abortion rights realizes that the Trump appointee now sits on the High Court only because President Obama’s nominee for the same seat was ignored by the Senate for eleven months. The overruling of Roe is directly traceable to that stonewalling and its mastermind—the majority leader, Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Why should supporters of abortion rights accept the legitimacy of a Court decision handed down by a bare majority that owes its fifth vote to Mitch McConnell’s Supreme Court Justice? The answer is that they would not, nor should they. Contrary to McConnell’s repeated claims, his posture of determined inaction * Professor of Law, Albany Law School. -
CLOSER to NOMINATION ELECTIONS Marchhas Passedand Thereare Only Ahandful of Voting Days Left Untilbothpolitical Partiesholdtheir Conventions
8A » Sunday, March 27,2016 » KITSAPSUN AJOURNAL MEDIAGROUP PROJECT CLOSER TO NOMINATION ELECTIONS Marchhas passedand thereare only ahandful of voting days left untilbothpolitical partiesholdtheir conventions. HillaryClinton 2016 andDonaldTrump areleading in thedelegatecounts, butthatstill does notmeantheyhaveaneasyroadtotheir respective party nominations. When delegate totals arethisclose,anythingcan happen at thenationalconventions this summer. Millions of people have votedinprimariesand at caucuses duringthe first fewmonthsthisyear. Theirvotes arenow in thehands of just afew thousand people. MEETTT THHEE DELEGATES The modern presidential nominationprocess —linking avotecastfor acandidate to the allocation of adelegateatthe convention level—was born outofalaw passed in 1910 in Oregon.In2016, 35 U.S. jurisdictionshaveorwillholdprimary elections, 13 have or will hold caucuses andeight have some combinationofthose. With rulesvarying from partytoparty andstate to state, theprocess of selectingapresidentialcandidate is alot more complicatedthanjustpicking someoneinthe ballot booth. DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Thereare twotypes of Members ooff theeD Deemmooccraratic Republicanshs h avete twwoo typesos off andahd a hyybbrriidds system. SSttaatteess set delegatesonthe Democratic National CoCommmmiitttteeee,, Congress, convention delegates: bound thepe peerrcceenntatage ththrreesshhoolldd side: pledgeddelegates and statege goovevernorsas anndd delegatesand unbound aac caannddiiddaattee must rreeaacchh unpledged superdelegates. distinguished paparrttyyo -
Bloomberg Politics Ohio Poll
EMBARGOED Bloomberg Politics Ohio Poll SELZER & COMPANY Study #2144 802 Ohio residents who are likely voters in the 2016 general election September 9-12, 2016 Margin of error: ± 3.5 percentage points 1,138 general population contacts weighted by race and age Poll Questions Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. If the general election were held today, and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton for the Democrats] and [Donald Trump for the Republicans], for whom would you vote? (Alternate candidate names every other interview.) (If not sure or would not vote, ask:) Toward which do you lean? Q.2a Q.2b Total Hillary Clinton 39 4 43 Donald Trump 44 4 48 Other/would not vote (VOL) 9 6 6 Not sure 8 3 3 Would you say your vote for Hillary Clinton is more a vote to support her for president, or more a vote to stop Donald Trump from becoming president? (Asked only of Clinton voters; n=329.) 56 More to support Clinton 37 More to vote against Trump 7 Not sure Would you say your vote for Donald Trump is more a vote to support him for president, or more a vote to stop Hillary Clinton from becoming president? (Asked only of Trump voters; n=403.) 49 More to support Trump 45 More to vote against Clinton 7 Not sure If the general election were held today, and the candidates were [Hillary Clinton for the Democrats], [Donald Trump for the Republicans], [Gary Johnson for the Libertarian Party], and [Jill Stein for the Green Party], for whom would you vote? (Rotate candidate names in brackets.) (If not sure, or would not vote, ask:) Toward which do you lean? Q.5a Q.5b Total Hillary Clinton 38 1 39 Donald Trump 43 1 44 Gary Johnson 10 - 10 Jill Stein 3 - 3 Would not vote (VOL) 1 1 1 Not sure 6 4 4 EMBARGOED If the elections for the U.S. -
California's Open-Primary Reform Leaves Open Questions As to Its
Issue 1603 California’s Open Primary Primer May/June INTRODUCTION TABLE OF CONTENTS California’s Open-Primary Reform Leaves Open Questions as to Its Effect on Golden State Politics INTRODUCTION By Bill Whalen California’s Open-Primary A funny thing happened to California on the way to its moment of glory as the decider of the fate of the next Republican presidential nominee. Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Reform Leaves Open Questions Governor John Kasich abruptly quit the race in early May, a month before California’s as to Its Effect on Golden State June 7 vote, leaving the California landscape wide open to Donald Trump. Politics by Bill Whalen Quicker than you can say “Lucy pulls the football away,” the Golden State found itself flat on its back, once again without a significant role in the selection process. (The Democratic contest between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Vermont Senator Bernie POLL ANALYSIS Sanders has been pretty much a given going back to March.) California’s June Primary: The last time California was a real player in primary season? Ronald Reagan needed the Laying the Foundation for What Golden State to stay alive, in 1976, during his challenge to Gerald Ford. Otherwise, we’re is to Come looking at 1968 and Robert F. Kennedy’s fabled run that ended in tragedy—and 1964 and by Carson Bruno the GOP ideological rift that pitted the conservative icon Barry Goldwater versus the decid- edly moderate Nelson Rockefeller. FEATURED COMMENTARY This isn’t to suggest that California is irrelevant in 2016. -
A Canadian Primer to the 2012 Us Primaries and Caucuses
A CANADIAN PRIMER TO THE 2012 US PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES A Policy Update Paper By Colin Robertson CDFAI Senior Research Fellow January, 2012 Prepared for the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute 1600, 530 – 8th Avenue S.W., Calgary, AB T2P 3S8 www.cdfai.org © Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute A CANADIAN PRIMER TO THE 2012 U.S. PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 2 Who’s running for the Republicans and what are their platforms? .................................. 3 Where do they stand? ........................................................................................................... 3 What’s the difference between a primary and a caucus? .................................................. 3 Is the process starting earlier than usual? ......................................................................... 3 Are the Iowa caucuses (January 3) important? .................................................................. 4 What about the Iowa Straw Poll held last August? ............................................................ 4 And the New Hampshire primary (January 10)? ................................................................. 4 Do the parties do their primary process differently? ......................................................... 5 Haven’t there been a lot more candidate debates? ............................................................ 5 Do the debates matter? ........................................................................................................ -
{Download PDF} Who Will Be the Next President? a Guide to The
WHO WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT? A GUIDE TO THE U. S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SYSTEM 2ND EDITION PDF, EPUB, EBOOK Alexander S Belenky | 9783319446950 | | | | | Who Will Be the Next President? A Guide to the U. S. Presidential Election System 2nd edition PDF Book Howie Hawkins April 19, Retrieved July 27, It could even be worse than the Hayes-Tilden election of , which was settled two days before the inauguration. Unpledged delegates don't. Modern history portal Politics portal United States portal. Senator from Delaware — Born November 20, October 4, FOX Attorneys controversies short tenures Dismissals U. The much more likely scenario, however, is that partisan politics will drive decisions in each state—and quite possibly dueling decisions in some states. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting although some states have redistricting commissions. Retrieved April 14, Retrieved October 22, Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, They'll get you the answer or let you know where to find it. Tilt D flip. Retrieved May 4, September 23, Accepted 3rd party nomination April 23, , votes. Retrieved November 14, Who Will Be the Next President? A Guide to the U. S. Presidential Election System 2nd edition Writer In 48 states and Washington, D. Retrieved July 27, The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of electors, as Maine and Nebraska have used in recent elections. W: April 5, votes 0. Retrieved December 6, This led to the concern that Biden may have contracted the virus from Trump; however, Biden tested negative. -
Contingent Election of the President and Vice President by Congress: Perspectives and Contemporary Analysis
Contingent Election of the President and Vice President by Congress: Perspectives and Contemporary Analysis Updated October 6, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R40504 Contingent Election of the President and Vice President by Congress Summary The 12th Amendment to the Constitution requires that presidential and vice presidential candidates gain “a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed” in order to win election. With a total of 538 electors representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, 270 electoral votes is the “magic number,” the arithmetic majority necessary to win the presidency. What would happen if no candidate won a majority of electoral votes? In these circumstances, the 12th Amendment also provides that the House of Representatives would elect the President, and the Senate would elect the Vice President, in a procedure known as “contingent election.” Contingent election has been implemented twice in the nation’s history under the 12th Amendment: first, to elect the President in 1825, and second, the Vice President in 1837. In a contingent election, the House would choose among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a contingent election. Representatives of states with two or more Representatives would therefore need to conduct an internal poll within their state delegation to decide which candidate would receive the state’s single vote. A majority of state votes, 26 or more, is required to elect, and the House must vote “immediately” and “by ballot.” Additional precedents exist from 1825, but they would not be binding on the House in a contemporary election. -