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Aging in China: an International and Domestic Comparative Study

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Aging in China: an International and Domestic Comparative Study sustainability Article Aging in China: An International and Domestic Comparative Study Jie Feng 1, Ganlin Hong 2 , Wenrong Qian 2,*, Ruifa Hu 3,* and Guanming Shi 1 1 Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53705, USA; [email protected] (J.F.); [email protected] (G.S.) 2 Department of Agricultural Economics and Management, School of Public Affairs, China Academy for Rural Development (CARD), Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310000, China; [email protected] 3 School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100811, China * Correspondence: [email protected] (W.Q.); [email protected] (R.H.) Received: 17 April 2020; Accepted: 14 June 2020; Published: 22 June 2020 Abstract: This study investigates the age structure and aging process in China over the last two decades. Comparing internationally, we find that China’s aging status is currently moderate. However, its aging process is accelerating at a rate faster than that of developed countries and the other BRICS countries, but slower than other East Asian countries except for North Korea and Mongolia. Domestically, we find increasing divergence and spatial variations in the aging process across regions and between rural and urban sectors by applying spatial statistic comparisons using data from the China Statistical Yearbook. Results from the spatial econometrics model suggest that factors such as urbanization and regional GDP, but not population density, could deepen the urban–rural aging gap. The transition of the aging process over time, across regions, and between sectors could influence social and economic activity. The results can guide future research on aging in China. Keywords: aging; global; rural; urban; China; regional differences; spatial econometric models 1. Introduction Aging drew global attention in the last decade primarily because of the challenges it brings to the labor market [1] and to public health and economic security, as seen in the recent devastating spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. With decreasing birth rates and increasing life expectancies, the world has witnessed an overall aging process in both developed and developing countries. China, as the most populous country and with the second-largest economy, contributed 15.86% of the world’s total GDP (Data source: World Bank (2018)), with 18.34% of the world population in 2018 (United Nations, 2018). Understanding China’s aging problems could have important socioeconomic implications for other countries. The imbalanced development between urban and rural areas in China across different regions could also result in significant socioeconomic consequences. We study, specifically, China’s aging situation, both domestically and internationally. We qualitatively and quantitatively answer the questions of whether unbalanced regional urban–rural development could influence the disparities in the urban and rural aging process, and also whether the inverted pattern of urban and rural aging has been reversed in some areas. As a natural process, the aging trend in China may follow a path that is similar to that of other countries, especially those in a similar stage of development (in economic terms) or other East Asian countries (in terms of ethnicity). However, China has several unique social and cultural factors that may differentiate its aging progress and demographic transitional path. First, China has experienced Sustainability 2020, 12, 5086; doi:10.3390/su12125086 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 5086 2 of 17 two dramatic fertility rate reversions since the 1960s: from the maximal 6.4 childbirths per woman in 1965 to 2.6 in 1980; and from 2.6 to 1.5 childbirths per woman since 1980 (Data source: United Nation (2018)). The first drop is due to China’s family planning policy change in the late 1970s [2], and the second drop is primarily associated with rapid urbanization since the 1980s [3]. Second, the residential registry system in China, known as Hukou, (according to the regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Household Registration since 1958) has generated unbalanced urban–rural development and substantial internal labor migration since 1984 [4]. The flow of rural and urban populations within the Hukou system resulted in different demographic compositions and aging structures between the two sectors. The rural population decreased from 80.25% of the total population in 1960 to 41.48% in 2017 (Data source: China Statistical Yearbook (2018)) (The China Statistical Yearbook calculated the rural population percentage according to Hukou before 1982, and by residency after 1982). The rural sector may face a more severe challenge than the urban sector due to this unequal labor force change. Adamchak (2001) [5] argues that the one-child policy in China affected the age structure and aging process in rural areas more due to the underdevelopment of formal systems of elderly support. The proportion of the Chinese population aged 65+ reached the UN’s 7% threshold for the classification as an “aging society” (The United Nations (UN) defines a country/region as an “aging society” when the population of age 65+ accounts for more than 7% of the total population in 1956.) in 2000, while China’s rural areas reached this threshold before 2000. This study documents the age structure and aging process between urban and rural sectors and across regions in the course of urbanization and internal migration. Our paper closely relates to three lines of the literature: (1) research that illustrates the consequences aging could bring to social, economic, and health care perspectives; (2) the spatial exploration of unbalanced aging progress; and (3) the urban–rural disparity in aging. Aging and uneven age structures can cause both economic problems and social anxiety, such as slower economic development [6] enormous health care challenges [7], and labor supply issues in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors [8–11]. Major countries in North America, Europe, and East Asia all face various levels of problems associated with aging. They all suffer from the challenges resulting from the increasing proportion of older people in the population. For developing countries, such challenges could be more demanding if their population is “getting old before rich” (the phrase “getting old before rich” refers to the situation in which the ratio of one country’s aging population becomes disproportionally high at the early phase of that country’s economic development stage) [12], and if facilities and institutions have not yet transitioned to an elder-friendly model. Financial burdens related to the senior population’s social welfare and health care provision could be substantial and challenging to the economy. Our study conducts an international comparison of aging issues between China and other countries with a similar development status and geographical locations to position China’s aging status quo in the global environment. From the global perspective, studies have shown a heterogeneous aging rate on different continents overall in the past half-century [13]. The decreases in the fertility rate and the death rate, together with the increase in life expectancy, are the fundamental causes of the global aging phenomenon [1]. China has had a fast-aging tendency and regional disparity across time. In this context, spatial analysis models are of particular importance in understanding aging issues in China, given massive rural–urban migration activities since the economic reforms in the late 1970s. The geographical research on China’s aging has had various focuses, e.g., its spatial distribution, the spatiotemporal evolution of the elder generation [13,14], and the relationship between aging and the other socioeconomic factors [15]. The previous studies usually explore the relationship between the proportion of the aging population and other factors from the spatial perspective. In China, rapid migration from province to province and from rural to urban areas could alter the dynamics of the aging situation. More specifically, the enormous internal migration in China may have potentially increased regional disparity. Wu et al. (2019) [16] studied the factors that impact China’s aging by incorporating spatial heterogeneity and dependence in an empirical Sustainability 2020, 12, 5086 3 of 17 model. Yang et al. (2019) [15] also examined the determining socioeconomic factors that affect aging in Northeast China, where aging, accompanied by a significant economic slowdown, was most acute. In this study, we tackle the regional unbalanced aging issue using the concept of the urban–rural aging gap. We contribute to the literature by employing both statistical comparisons and spatial econometrics models to reveal the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the regional unbalanced urban–rural aging gap in China. Our study is also closely related to existing studies on urban–rural aging disparity. Kinsella (2001) [17] shows that the elderly are more likely to reside in rural areas. The main reason is probably the migration of the young labor force and the return-migration of the older one. China’s unique Hukou system not only generates the migration from rural to urban areas but also incorporates the migration from city to city. Previous studies summarize that the proportion of the elderly population was higher in the less developed areas and the rural regions of China in 1990 [18]. They also predict the most developed regions, such as Shanghai, Beijing,
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