Poll of academic economists
The Economist polled 100 academic economists on the Bush record and the economic plans of Mr Bush and Mr Kerry; 56 responded. However, totals do not all add to 56 as not all respondents answered each question.
THE BUSH RECORD 1. Please rate the state of the US economy. (1=very bad, 5=very good)
1 2 3 4 5 SUM 0 11 27 17 1 % 0% 20% 48% 30% 2%
2. How much credit/blame does the Bush administration bear for the state of the economy? (1=none, 5=all)
1 2 3 4 5 SUM 5 13 18 18 2 % 9% 23% 32% 32% 4%
3. Please rate the following Bush policies. (1=very bad, 5=very good)
The tax cuts 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 21 19 6 7 3 % 38% 34% 11% 13% 5%
No Child Left Behind education reform 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 8 16 17 11 1 % 14% 29% 30% 20% 2%
Medicare prescription drug benefit 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 17 21 13 2 0 % 30% 38% 23% 4% 0%
Trade Policy 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 6 24 17 8 0 % 11% 43% 30% 14% 0%
4. Overall, please grade Mr Bush's economic policies in his first term. (1=very bad, 5=very good)
1 2 3 4 5 SUM 15 26 10 3 2 % 27% 46% 18% 5% 4% THE FUTURE 5. Please rate the following challenges facing the US economy. (1=a crisis, 5=not a problem)
The budget deficit 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 10 31 11 4 0 % 18% 55% 20% 7% 0%
The current-account deficit 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 1 20 15 15 5 % 2% 36% 27% 27% 9%
Outsourcing of jobs overseas 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 1 2 5 20 28 % 2% 4% 9% 36% 50%
Baby-boom retirement 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 7 31 9 6 3 % 13% 55% 16% 11% 5%
Health-care costs 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 12 28 8 7 1 % 21% 50% 14% 13% 2%
6. Please rate the following components of Mr Bush's campaign agenda. (1=very bad, 5=very good)
Make the tax cuts permanent 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 26 15 6 3 5 % 46% 27% 11% 5% 9%
Reform social security by creating personal retirement accounts 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 11 10 14 16 4 % 20% 18% 25% 29% 7%
Reform the tax code to make it "fairer, simpler and more pro-growth" 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 7 3 21 10 14 % 13% 5% 38% 18% 25%
Overall, please rate Mr Bush's economic plan 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 13 19 14 6 3 % 23% 34% 25% 11% 5% 7. Please rate the following components of Mr Kerry's campaign agenda. (1=very bad, 5=very good)
Roll back tax cuts on incomes>$200,000 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 4 6 8 22 16 % 7% 11% 14% 39% 29%
Remove tax deferral on profits of foreign subsidiaries of US firms 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 6 13 17 13 5 % 11% 23% 30% 23% 9%
Healthcare policy (provide government-funded catastrophic healthcare coverage and expand Medicaid/SCHIPS) 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 3 10 15 18 9 % 5% 18% 27% 32% 16%
Trade policy 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 10 23 17 4 0 % 18% 41% 30% 7% 0%
Overall, please rate Mr Kerry's economic plan 1 2 3 4 5 SUM 4 11 16 20 3 % 7% 20% 29% 36% 5%
8. Which candidate has the better policies on the following issues:
Mr Bush Mr Kerry Promoting fiscal discipline SUM 10 44 % 18% 79%
Preparing for baby-boomers' retirement SUM 15 34 % 27% 61%
Controlling health-care costs SUM 14 33 % 25% 59%
Free trade and globalisation SUM 27 14 % 48% 25%
Creating jobs SUM 18 24 % 32% 43%
Energy policy SUM 9 41 % 16% 73%
Boosting Economic Growth SUM 17 23 % 30% 41% 9. How important is this election for the course of American economic policy? (1=not important, 5=extremely important)
1 2 3 4 5 SUM 2 10 13 17 13 % 7% 20% 29% 36% 5%
10. If you had a chance to work in a policy job in Washington, would you take it?
yes no SUM 21 33 % 38% 59%
11. For whom would you rather work?
Mr Bush Mr Kerry SUM 3 17 % 14% 81%