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Draft Revised Technical Paper TP.FNTP International Telecommunication Union ITU-T Technical Paper TELECOMMUNICATION STANDARDIZATION SECTOR OF ITU (30 November 2015) Future social media and knowledge society Forward This Technical Paper was developed by Mr. Jun Kyun Choi. ITU-T Technical Paper (2015-12) i CONTENTS Page 1 Scope ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2 Definitions .................................................................................................................................... 3 3 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 4 4 Vision and technology trends toward knowledge society ............................................................ 6 4.1 Vision toward knowledge society ............................................................................................ 6 4.2 New technologies for knowledge society .............................................................................. 18 5 Vision and technology trends of social media ........................................................................... 30 5.1 New trends of social media .................................................................................................... 30 5.2 New technologies for social media ........................................................................................ 36 6 Risks of knowledge society........................................................................................................ 43 7 New opportunity of knowledge society and social media ......................................................... 50 8 ICT standardization for future knowledge society ..................................................................... 61 9 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 67 10 References and bibliography ...................................................................................................... 69 List of Figures Figure 1 – From agricultural society to knowledge society ................................................................. 7 Figure 2 – Expecting value of knowledge by classification of intelligences ..................................... 12 Figure 3 – Key features of knowledge society ................................................................................... 13 Figure 4 – Data-information-knowledge-wisdom (DIKW) process (ref. [14]) ................................. 16 Figure 5 – Recursive cycle of knowledge creation (ref. [15]) ........................................................... 17 Figure 6 – Evolution of social business [41]...................................................................................... 51 Figure 7 – Social information infrastructure via ICTs ....................................................................... 53 Figure 8 – ICT conceptual vision of future ICT infrastructure .......................................................... 54 Figure 9 – Key trends of future ICT eco-society ............................................................................... 56 Figure 10 – Value-added services of future ICT infrastructure ......................................................... 57 Figure 11 – Emerging applications of future ICT infrastructure ....................................................... 58 Figure 12 – Strategic trends for future ICT infrastructure ................................................................. 59 Figure 13 – Step-wise evolution toward future ICT infrastructure .................................................... 60 Figure 14 – Recursive standardization process for knowledge information infrastructure ............... 66 ITU-T Technical Paper (2015-12) ii ITU-T Technical Paper Future social media and knowledge society Introduction Smartphone addiction Most mothers claim "my children are dying brain" since they use smartphones the whole day. They feel that smartphones are similar to "Digital Drugs". Even when children go to bed, they have their smartphones with them. If the battery is almost worn out, most children panic easily. Many couples too often fight to use the smartphone. Most people send and receive an unlimited number of short messages by using social networking services, such as Twitter and Facebook. Smartphone addictions are due to a hyper-connected society of Internet, and they are more serious than Internet addiction or video game addiction. The average usage time per day of smartphone addiction is more than eight hours, while normal users use three hours. The main purpose of using smartphones is chatting, news searching, listening to music, and games. In the near future, mobile phone manufacturers may have to attach mandatory warning on smartphones such as "Excessive use of smartphones is harmful to your health and family reconciliation". Data explosion In Cisco's report on visual networking index in 2013, the volume of global Internet traffic is expected to reach 1.6 zeta bytes. (Note that 1 zettabyte = 1021 bytes = 1 billion terabytes = 1000 exabytes [1].) It has been announced that global Internet protocol (IP) traffic is expected to increase by about three-fold during the next five years. Wireless mobile traffic will exceed wired traffic, and video traffic with high definition quality will be the best. The major factor of traffic increase is the increase of Internet users and mobile devices, which are the result of the increase of broadband network bandwidth and video watching. The traffic volume of mobile devices will exceed the volume of personal computer (PC) traffic. Moreover, wireless fidelity (WiFi) traffic will exceed wired traffic for the first time. The percentage share of video traffic with high definition quality of all the traffic is expected to increase to 79% in 2018 compared to 66% in 2013. Traffic for Internet of things/machine-to-machine (IoT/M2M) applications will increase sharply in the near future. New habit of online society While people frequently use the Internet, they develop new habits. Currently, Internet users are increasing drastically. More than 50% of the people in the world are plugged-in at the Internet. The penetration ratio of smartphones is also steeply rising to more than 50%. Such penetration is causing change in the daily lives of people. Lately, many people may have the habit of checking their smartphones first thing in the morning; they check their schedule of the day to decide what clothes they have to wear, depending on their meeting and business schedule. On their way to work, they check their e-mails and mobile messages. For their daily lives and businesses, most people always connect to the online environment by using smartphones. If they have a question during a meeting or a conversation, they directly check the related websites by using the smartphone so that they can obtain the facts from the Internet without a serious debate. To get the opinion of faraway experts, people call them immediately during the meeting. Sometimes, the meeting makes a vote from the all the participants including those who participated remotely. In some strange cases during face-to-face meetings, people start the meeting by using the social networking services in order to record the meeting results even though all the members are present in the same location. In their day-to-day life, people check their personal schedule by using the Internet. They fix dates with their girlfriends, and book movie tickets by using the smartphone. When a girlfriend does not find the exact meeting place, her boyfriend directs her from her current location. Sometimes, he ITU-T Technical Paper (2015-12) 1 asks his friends to find out a nice venue to meet. He may enjoy a major event nearby like a street parade or fireworks. He can receive a discount coupon for a nearby restaurant while he is looking for a nice place. By using the smartphone, he meets with his family and friends every day even though he could not meet them physically. Most mothers worry about their daughters when they come back home late in the evening; they can contact their daughters by using the smartphone to ensure that they return safely. Social effects of online connectivity At least once a day, people visit their social networking service like Twitter and Facebook, etc. When people are excluded to join as a friend or be a member of the social networking services, they are very disappointed and they think that are being bullied. People may worry about such online as well as offline exclusion from these communities. When people post the latest news and gossip on their social networking sites, they observe and wonder how to appeal or how to react to their friends. People may want to learn about new cultures of online social communities regardless of where they are or what they are working at. They may exercise new skills on how to live in an open culture of an online society. This online culture may be similar to a community culture like the Confucian civilization of Far East Asia. Impact of technology development toward future society The recent new technologies such as cloud computing, the web, and social networking services over the Internet are just the beginning of a wide variety of technological developments for the future. The future society is ready to invite new technologies like big data analytics, deep learning, augmented
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