IFP/WKP/FGS(2011)3 MULTI-DISCIPLINARY ISSUES INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME OECD/IFP Project on “Future Global Shocks” “Reducing Systemic Cybersecurity Risk” Peter Sommer, Information Systems and Innovation Group, London School of Economics Ian Brown, Oxford Internet Institute, Oxford University This report was written by Peter Sommer and Ian Brown as a contribution to the OECD project ―Future Global Shocks‖. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries. Contact persons: Pierre-Alain Schieb: +33 (0)1 45 24 82 70,
[email protected] Anita Gibson: +33 (0)1 45 24 96 27,
[email protected] 14th January 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................... 5 SYSTEMIC CYBER SECURITY RISK .......................................................................... 9 DESCRIPTION AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT ......................................................... 15 Early days of business and government computing ..................................................... 15 1970s and 1980s: changing patterns of risk ................................................................. 15 Routes to democratisation ............................................................................................ 16 The emergence of the Internet ...................................................................................... 17