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Promote New Diplomacy on Energy Through Leading Global Efforts Against Climate Change Advisory Panel to the Foreign Minister on Climate Change: Recommendations on Energy Promote New Diplomacy on Energy through Leading Global Efforts against Climate Change February 2018 SLIDE DECK 1 Japan: GHGs emissions and percentage of CO2 from energy-use waste 2％ others0.3% nitrous oxide 1.6％ CFCs 3.7％ industrial processes and product use 4％ methan 2.3% residential 5％ non-energy commercial related CO2 7％ 6.4% Japan Japan GHGs emissions by gas direct CO2 emissions FY2016 transport FY2016 preliminary figures preliminary figures 17％ 1,322 million tons 1,222 million tons industries (factories, etc.) 24％ energy conversion (CO2) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 41％ 92.4％ energy related CO2 from energy use 86.5% 93.6％ from non-energy use 5.9% 2 source: Ministry of the Environment (Japan), Preliminary figures for GHG emissions in FY2016 Global PV expansion GW 73GW in 2016: China 34GW, Japan 7GW — more than 300GW 98GW in 2017: China 53GW, Japan 7GW — more than 400GW 450 more than source: BP Statical Review of World Energy 2017、GTM Research、RTS 400GW402.6 400 350 303.6 300 250 230.6 200 180.0 150 139.0 100.8 100 71.8 50 41.3 16.2 24.5 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.7 9.4 0 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 20132013 20142014 20152015 20162016 20172017 3 GW PV installation in top 10 countries in 2016 90 source:IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, Snapshot of Global PV Markets, 2016 (2017). 80 78.1! 70 60 50 42.8! 41.2! 40.3! 40 30 19.3! 20 11.6! 9! 10 7.1! 5.9! 5.5! 0 Japan日本 China中国 Germanyドイツ U.S.米国 イタリアItaly U.K.英国 インドIndia Franceフランス オーストラリ Australia スペインSpain ア 4 Global wind expansion GW 600 53GW in 2017 — almost 540GW 540GW 539.6 source: Global Wind Energy Council (2018) 500 487.5 432.9 400 340.0 318.5 300 283.0 238.1 198.0 200 159.0 120.1 94.0 100 74.0 59.1 47.6 31.1 39.4 17.4 23.9 0 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011 20122012 2013 2014 2015 20162016 20172017 5 Wind installation in top 10 countries and Japan in 2017 GW source: Global Wind Energy Council (2018) 200 188.2 180 160 140 120 100 89 80 56 60 40 32.8 23.2 18.9 13.8 20 12.8 12.2 9.5 3.4 0 Japan日本 China中国 U.S.米国 Germanyドイツ インドIndia スペインU.K. Spain英国 フランスFrance ブラジル Canada カナダBrazil イタリアItaly 6 Global annual additional capacity of Renewables VS. Non-renewables renewables non-renewables GW 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 再生可能Renewables 14 21 31 35 35 41 54 69 75 79 104 118 119 127 154 164 非再生可能Non-Renewables 84 111 116 116 93 133 145 107 100 138 118 117 87 93 97 96 7 source: IRENA (2017), REthinking Energy 2017: Accelerating the global energy transformation, REN21 (2017) Global Status Report 2017, World Nuclear Association Global renewable heat use World and Japan World Japan EJ/year 10^18J/year PJ/year 10^15J/year 25 250250 太陽熱 solar thermal bioenergy 20 バイオエネルギー 200200 15 150150 10 210 185 191 201 197 175 180 192 197 100 159 182 191 5 100 137 142 113 101 0 2015 5050 modern bioenergy geothermal 34 31 31 renewable electricity 27 24 24 23 21 20 19 17 16 15 13 12 11 solar thermal 00 renewable district heat 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8 sources:IEA (2017), Renewable 2017, METI ”Energy Statistics” (22nd November, 2017) The levelized cost of electricity for projects and global weighted average values for CSP, solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, 2010-2022 Onshore wind Solar PV Offshore wind Concentrating solar 0.4 Auction database LCOE databasse 0.3 0.2 USD/kWh 2016 0.1 0.0 source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database and Auctions Database. note: Each circle represents and individual project or an auction result where there was a single clearing price at auction. The centre of the circle is the value for the cost of each project on the Y axis. The thick lines are the global weighted average LCOE, or auction values, by year. For the LCOE data, the real WACC is 7.5% for OECD countries and China, and 10% forsource: the ：Bloombergrest of the Newworld. Energy The Finance(2017), band represents Notes: Figures the fossil refer fuel-firedto an estimated power project generation LCOE, taking cost into range.account tariff, inflation, merchant tail 9 assumption and a 23-year project lifetime. Horizontal axis refers to commissioning year Source: IRENA (2018), Renewable Power Generation Cost in 2017 Decreasing bidding prices for utility-scale solar Sharp decline of bidding prices for utility-scale solar Recently, below 2 cents/kWh. South Africa India France Peru Morocco Jordan Zambia Germany Brazil China Argentina the US Mexico Saudi Arabia Dubai Chile 10 source: IRENA (2017), REthinking Energy 2017: Accelerating the global energy transformation Solar PV projected cost reduction until 2025 from 2015 to 2025 the cost of PV is expected to be reduced by 59% Module Inverter Racking and mounting Other BoS hardware Installation/EPC/development Other Due to the reduction in the installation cost for PV, the LCOE for utility-scale solar PV will decrease by 59% in 10 years (2015-2025). In 2025, it will be 0.03-0.12USD/kWh. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 11 source:IRENA (2016), The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025 Global Investment in Power Capacity, by Type, 2012-2016 Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuel, Nuclear Power billion USD Fossil and nuclear fossil fuel nuclear power Modern Renewables Solar PV Wind Power Large-scale hydropower Bio-power Other ※Others include CSP, geothermal, small hydropower, ocean power 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12 source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2017 Clean Energy Investment by Region 2004-2017 $bn BalanceBalance shifts shifts from Europe Europe as as largest-investinglargest-investing regionregion to to Asia Asia asas number number one regionregion APAC EMEA AMER 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 APAC 13 source:Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017 Outlooks for power capacity expansion in 2040 IEA: Global average annual net capacity additions by type 2017−2040, renewables will be significantly expanded Nuclear Power source: IEA(2017), World Energy Outlook 2017 Gas Coal Renewables Solar Power Wind Others GW Bloomberg: Renewable Energy will dominate the electric power mix in 2040 Small-scale solar 1.7% source: Bloomberg(2017), NEO Utility-scale Solar 3.2% Geo, Solar Thermal 0.3% Geo, Solar Thermal 0.3% Onshore Wind 7.1% Bioenergy 2% Small-scale solar Coal 10.8% 13.7% Coal 30.8% Gas Hydro Utility-scale Solar 17.9% 2016 24.2% 2040 14.7% 6,528GW 12,879GW Oil 2% Nuclear Nucler 3.5% 5.3% Gas Onshore Hydro Oil 25.0% Wind 12.6% 6.4% Off-shore Wind 1.5% 15.4% 14 Bioenergy 1.5% 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Examples of “decoupling” in the world 0.6 Germany 0.4 0.2 0 1990 GDP 2 1991 1.8 1992 Primary energy supply 1993 1.6 1994 GHGs 1.4 1995 1996 1.2 1997 1998 1 1999 2 2000 0.8 1.8 2001 0.6 2002 1.6 2003 0.4 the US 2004 1.4 0.2 2005 2006 1.2 2007 0 15 2008 1 2009 15 0.8 1990 2010 1991 GDP 2011 0.6 1992 2012 1993 Primary energy supply 0.4 2013 UK 1994 2014 GHGs 0.2 1995 2015 1996 1997 0 1998 1999 1990 2000 1991 GDP 2001 2 1992 Primary energy supply 2002 1.8 1993 2003 1994 GHGs 2004 1.6 1995 2005 1996 1.4 2006 1997 2007 1.2 1998 2008 1999 2009 2000 1 “Decoupling” is also starting in Japan 2010 2001 0.8 2011 2002 2003 2012 0.6 Japan 2013 2004 Source: Primary2014 Energy Supply 0.4 2005 2015 2006 0.2 2007 2008 0 2009 2010 1990 GDP 2011 1991 2012 1992 Primary energy supply 2013 1993 GHGs 2014 1994 2015 ・ 1995 GDP 1996 ： 1997 OECD/IEA1998 1999 2000 2001 （ 2002 2017 2003 ） 2004 CO2 emission2005 from fuel combustion, GHG 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Relationship between clean energy investment and GDP until 2050 If energy conversion measures (REmap scenario) for decarbonization to achieve the 2 degrees target are implemented, 29 trillion USD will be required as additional investment until 2050. GDP will be boosted by 0.8%. Additional investment until 2050 Net 29 Trillion USD End-use sectors fossil化石燃料 fuels 原子力nuclear power Power generation エネルギー効率化energy efficiency renewabls 再生可能エネルギー CCS and others Upstream EarlyCCSその他 building replacement旧式建築物の建替え T&D,T&D バッテリー、バックアップ buttery & back-up 2015-2050Additional investments年に必要な追加的投資（兆ドル） in 2015-2050 (USD trillion) GDP increase 2030 2050 GDP increase in 2050 0.8% Full crowding out Partial crowding out No crowding out Source: IEA/IRENA (2017), 16 (central case) Perspectives for the Energy Transition Jobs in renewable energy around the world in 2016 Solar PV Liquid Biofuels Large-scale Hydro Wind Source: International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2017 Solar Heating/ Cooling Solid Biomass Biogas Small-scale Hydro Geothermal CSP 17 Comparison power generation cost among major countries Comparison Power Generation Cost among Major Countries （LCOE, 2017 First Half） Cent USD/kWh Fossil fuel ※ Exclude Oil-Fired Wind (Onshore) PV Coal (Average) Gas Combined Cycle (Average) China India Japan Germany UK Brazil Chile US Wind (Onshore) and PV (Average) Asia Europe North America / South America 18 source: ：BNEF（2017）、Levelized Cost of Electricity Comparison of PV costs in the world low cost middle cost high cost Source: IRENA (2016), Power to Change left to right, PV cost is higher from 19 China Germany India UK Italy Jordan France Chile Spain USA Australia Japan Energy Efficiency Status in Japan Summary of IEA Recommendations on Energy Efficiency for Japan: General, Buildings, Transport, District Heating and Cooling, including Co-generation • Continue to develop policies that will deliver energy efficiency improvements in small and medium-sized enterprises.
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