Checking Iran's Gambit
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Environmental
Back to normal is still a long way off Gwynne Dyer p. 12 What now of the Michael environmental Harris movement in Canada? p.11 Phil Gurski p. 11 Some MPs donating their salary increases to charities p. 4 THIRTY-FIRST YEAR, NO. 1718 CANADA’S POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT NEWSPAPER MONDAY, APRIL 13, 2020 $5.00 News Remote caucus meetings Analysis Feds’ response Analysis: Did In the time of the pandemic, the feds flip- flop on closing Liberals holding national caucus the border or wearing meetings seven days a week masks amid The Liberals' daily Liberals meetings start with the COVID-19 are using a an update for MPs on new developments outbreak? regular daily and the government's initiatives from BY PETER MAZEREEUW conference Deputy House Leader Kirsty Duncan, he federal government says call for their left, International science and expert advice is Trade Minister Mary T caucus behind its decision to shut the Ng, and Minister border to travellers and its chang- meetings. The of Middle Class ing advice on whether Canadians Prosperity Mona should wear masks amid the CO- Conservatives Fortier. Usually, VID-19 outbreak. While Canada’s a member of the are using top health official pointed to COVID-19 cabinet new science related to using face Zoom and committee, or masks, one expert says there is another cabinet no scientific evidence that could the New minister also joins have informed Canada’s decision them in updating Democrats to close its border on March 16. caucus members. “There is no science about The Hill Times are using whether it works to restrict all photographs by travel into a country,” said Steven GoToMeeting. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Iran Case File (April 2021)
IRAN CASE FILE April 2021 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 Executive Summary .....................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ........................................................................................... 7 The Ideological File .............................................................................................8 1. Women and the “Political Man” ............................................................................... 8 2. Khatami and the Position of Women ......................................................................10 The Political File ............................................................................................... 12 1. The Most Notable Highlights of the Leaked Interview .............................................12 2. Consequences and Reactions .................................................................................13 3. The Position of the Iranian President and Foreign Ministry on the Interview ..........14 4. The Implications of Leaking the Interview at This Time..........................................15 The Economic File ............................................................................................. 16 1. Bitcoin’s Genesis Globally and the Start of Its Use in Iran ........................................16 2. The Importance of Bitcoin for Iran -
Information Sheet
Council Meeting Agenda – May 16, 2017 The Corporation of the Township of Lake of Bays INFORMATION SHEET 1. Resolutions received regarding Township of Lake of Bays resolution #5(f)(i)/02/21/17 “Schedule 5 of Bill 7 – An Act to Amend or Repeal Various Acts with respect to Housing and Planning (Property Standards)”: a. The Corporation of the Municipality of South Huron, dated April 27, 2017; b. The Township of Perth East, dated April 19, 2017; c. The Municipality of Kincardine, dated April 19, 2017; d. The Corporation of the Municipality of Calvin, dated April 13, 2017; e. The United Counties of Prescott Russell, dated April 12, 2017. 2. Resolutions received from: a. The Corporation of the Township of North Frontenac, re: Hydro Reduction of 25% Not Applicable to Seasonal Residents, dated May 9, 2017; b. The Corporation of the Town of Amherstburg, re: A Bank for Everyone – Support Postal Banking, dated April 28, 2017; c. The County of Lanark, re: Request for Provincial Support: Opioid Strategy, dated April 27, 2017; d. The Municipality of Dutton Dunwich, re: Halt all Wind Power approvals in unwilling host communities, dated April 25, 2017; e. The Corporation of the Township of Adjala-Tosorontio, re: Canada’s 150th Birthday, dated April 20, 2017; f. The Corporation of the City of Kawartha Lakes, re: Supporting Certified Crop Advisors, dated April 12, 2017; g. The Municipality of Port Hope, re: Incineration of Waste, including Gasification, Plasma Arc, Pyrolysis, Energy-from Waste, Combustion, dated April 7, 2017. 3. Resolutions received regarding the Accommodation Review Process for rural schools in Ontario: a. -
Ontario Delegates
Christine (she/hers) a second-generation Vietnamese Canadian born in Mississauga and raised in Toronto, Ontario. Growing up, Christine had a determination for knowledge and leading others. At Brookview Middle School, Christine participated in Hockey HEROS (Hockey Education Reaching Out to Society) mentor-based ice hockey program that helps empowers at-risk youth. From the lessons she learned from the program, Christine was recognized by CIBC as, “Most Inspirational" (2012) through her initiatives working with others as a team. Her legacy carried onto University as a community organizer and ambassador for the Vietnamese community. In the second year of her undergrad, Christine relaunched the University of Toronto Scarborough Vietnamese Student's Association (UTSVA) by providing students the opportunities to network and build leadership within themselves. After one year, the United Vietnamese Students Association Eastern Canada (UVSAEC) and United North American Vietnamese Students Association (UNAVSA) acknowledge Christine, "VSA Member of the Year (2018)". Since 2017, Christine continues to be socially active in school and the Vietnamese community by encouraging others to join leadership initiatives and teaching about civic engagement in her social circles. Christine wishes to pursue social justice and education by eliminating barriers to marginalized communities by working with DOV delegates and Federal MPs towards challenging and reducing inequality in Canada. My name is Lovleen Goraya and I am currently an undergraduate student at York University. My major is Political Science. I am planning on using my degree to work closely within Canadian Politics and transfer this knowledge towards practicing law in the future. HI! My name is Alia Samem. -
Core 1..16 Journalweekly (PRISM::Advent3b2 17.25)
HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA CHAMBRE DES COMMUNES DU CANADA 42nd PARLIAMENT, 1st SESSION 42e LÉGISLATURE, 1re SESSION Journals Journaux No. 22 No 22 Monday, February 22, 2016 Le lundi 22 février 2016 11:00 a.m. 11 heures PRAYER PRIÈRE GOVERNMENT ORDERS ORDRES ÉMANANT DU GOUVERNEMENT The House resumed consideration of the motion of Mr. Trudeau La Chambre reprend l'étude de la motion de M. Trudeau (Prime Minister), seconded by Mr. LeBlanc (Leader of the (premier ministre), appuyé par M. LeBlanc (leader du Government in the House of Commons), — That the House gouvernement à la Chambre des communes), — Que la Chambre support the government’s decision to broaden, improve, and appuie la décision du gouvernement d’élargir, d’améliorer et de redefine our contribution to the effort to combat ISIL by better redéfinir notre contribution à l’effort pour lutter contre l’EIIL en leveraging Canadian expertise while complementing the work of exploitant mieux l’expertise canadienne, tout en travaillant en our coalition partners to ensure maximum effect, including: complémentarité avec nos partenaires de la coalition afin d’obtenir un effet optimal, y compris : (a) refocusing our military contribution by expanding the a) en recentrant notre contribution militaire, et ce, en advise and assist mission of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) in développant la mission de conseil et d’assistance des Forces Iraq, significantly increasing intelligence capabilities in Iraq and armées canadiennes (FAC) en Irak, en augmentant theatre-wide, deploying CAF medical personnel, -
Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market
Iran: World’s Largest Untapped Frontier Market Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market IRAN IN BRIEF Population 78.4 million (2nd Stock exchange $100bn largest after Egypt) (Tehran) Area 1,648,195 sq km (2nd No of listed 314 largest in Middle East) companies GDP (2014, $404bn ($401bn of Literacy (10-49 97% current price) UAE) ages) GDP (2014, PPP) $1,334bn ($1.508bn Young population 60% under 30 years of Turkey) old GDP per capita $17,114 ($16,100 of Major industries: Manufacturing & (PPP) Brazil) mining, oil & gas, services, agriculture Crude oil reserves 4th world‘s largest Key exports Crude oil, petroleum products Natural gas 1st world‘s largest Gross official $110bn reserves reserves Crude oil 2nd largest in OPEC External debt 1.8% of GDP production 2 Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market CONTENTS Iran in Brief 2 Iran in Numbers 6 Summary 8 Recent Key Developments At a Glance 9 Economy 11 GDP and Oil Exports 11 Foreign Investments: Inviting Global Oil Majors 14 Inflation and Exchange Rate 16 Government Finances 18 Economic Outlook 20 Key Macroeconomic Indicators 22 Politics 23 Political System 23 Presidential Elections 24 Nuclear Program 25 Comprehensive Nuclear Deal 27 Framework Nuclear Deal 28 Landmark Interim Agreement 29 International Sanctions on Iran 30 Key Industry Focus 33 Oil & Gas 33 Mining and Manufacturing 36 Banking and Financial Services 39 Power 41 Transport and Aviation 43 Telecom 45 Retail Market 47 Pharma and Health Care 49 Education 52 Tourism and Hospitality 55 Digital Economy 58 Opportunities Across Asset Classes 60 Public Equities 60 Private Equity 64 Real Estate 65 Annex I. -
The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו רטל ( למ ו מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: A Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr. Raz Zimmt November 5, 2020 Main Argument The Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has become a major intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Republic, having increased its influence and broadened its authorities. Iran’s intelligence apparatus, similar to other control and governance apparatuses in the Islamic Republic, is characterized by power plays, rivalries and redundancy. The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, operates alongside the Ministry of Intelligence, which was established in 1984 and answers to the president. The redundancy and overlap in the authorities of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization have created disagreements and competition over prestige between the two bodies. In recent years, senior regime officials and officials within the two organizations have attempted to downplay the extent of disagreements between the organizations, and strove to present to domestic and foreign audience a visage of unity. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (ILNA, July 16, 2020) The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, in its current form, was established in 2009. The Organization’s origin is in the Intelligence Unit of the IRGC, established shortly after the Islamic Revolution (1979). -
Takfiris in Tehran: the Sectarian Face of Iranian Counterterrorism by Mehdi Khalaji
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2637 Takfiris in Tehran: The Sectarian Face of Iranian Counterterrorism by Mehdi Khalaji Jun 24, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mehdi Khalaji Mehdi Khalaji, a Qom-trained Shiite theologian, is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis While the severity of the Sunni extremist threat inside Iran is debatable, the regime's recent operations against suspected terrorists highlight its pattern of exploiting sectarian sentiment to bolster its regional adventurism. n June 14, Iran's Ministry of Intelligence launched a series of operations leading to the arrest of ten O "Wahhabi takfiri terrorists" in Tehran and three other provinces. Following the initial announcement of the crackdown on June 19, Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi provided further details about the captured suspects two days later. According to him, "their plan was to attack several crowded spots using remote bombs and car bombs"; they had prepared a list of fifty targets in all. Agents also reportedly seized about one kilogram of explosive material and used "sophisticated measures" to prevent the delivery of two tons more to "terrorists." Video clips claiming to show the sting have been posted to the website of Fars News , a media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The actual scope and severity of this threat remain uncertain for now, but the rhetoric surrounding the regime's response holds clear domestic implications. In addition to treating terrorist infiltration as a political football in recent years, various officials have been using loaded words like "takfir" to rally the public behind Tehran's sectarian regional agenda. -
Debates of the Senate
DEBATES OF THE SENATE 2nd SESSION • 43rd PARLIAMENT • VOLUME 152 • NUMBER 42 OFFICIAL REPORT (HANSARD) Thursday, May 27, 2021 The Honourable GEORGE J. FUREY, Speaker CONTENTS (Daily index of proceedings appears at back of this issue). Debates Services: Josée Boisvert, National Press Building, Room 831, Tel. 613-219-3775 Publications Centre: Kim Laughren, National Press Building, Room 926, Tel. 343-550-5002 Published by the Senate Available on the Internet: http://www.parl.gc.ca 1523 THE SENATE Thursday, May 27, 2021 The Senate met at 1:30 p.m., the Speaker in the chair. BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY Prayers. Hon. Paula Simons: Honourable senators, this morning, the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association announced that the World Organization for Animal Health, the OIE, has declared Canada a SENATORS’ STATEMENTS country with a “negligible risk for bovine spongiform encephalopathy.” That is the lowest possible risk for BSE, a development that we can hope will mark the beginning of the end OPIOID CRISIS of trade barriers to Canadian beef around the world. It’s an extraordinary tribute to the Canadian prion disease researchers, Hon. Vernon White: Honourable senators, I’ve spoken about veterinarians, inspectors, farmers and ranchers who have worked the opioid crisis Canada has and is facing twice in the past week. together to achieve this hard-won status. For many of us it is a crisis that impacts the unknown addict, but the reality is very different. It was 18 years ago this week that a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy was first detected by a provincial lab in Alberta. Today I want to put before you some of those who have died The cow in question had never entered the human food chain. -
George Committees Party Appointments P.20 Young P.28 Primer Pp
EXCLUSIVE POLITICAL COVERAGE: NEWS, FEATURES, AND ANALYSIS INSIDE HARPER’S TOOTOO HIRES HOUSE LATE-TERM GEORGE COMMITTEES PARTY APPOINTMENTS P.20 YOUNG P.28 PRIMER PP. 30-31 CENTRAL P.35 TWENTY-SEVENTH YEAR, NO. 1322 CANADA’S POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT NEWSWEEKLY MONDAY, FEBRUARY 22, 2016 $5.00 NEWS SENATE REFORM NEWS FINANCE Monsef, LeBlanc LeBlanc backs away from Morneau to reveal this expected to shed week Trudeau’s whipped vote on assisted light on deficit, vision for non- CIBC economist partisan Senate dying bill, but Grit MPs predicts $30-billion BY AbbaS RANA are ‘comfortable,’ call it a BY DEREK ABMA Senators are eagerly waiting to hear this week specific details The federal government is of the Trudeau government’s plan expected to shed more light on for a non-partisan Red Cham- Charter of Rights issue the size of its deficit on Monday, ber from Government House and one prominent economist Leader Dominic LeBlanc and Members of the has predicted it will be at least Democratic Institutions Minister Joint Committee $30-billion—about three times Maryam Monsef. on Physician- what the Liberals promised dur- The appearance of the two Assisted ing the election campaign—due to ministers at the Senate stand- Suicide, lower-than-expected tax revenue ing committee will be the first pictured at from a slow economy and the time the government has pre- a committee need for more fiscal stimulus. sented detailed plans to reform meeting on the “The $10-billion [deficit] was the Senate. Also, this is the first Hill. The Hill the figure that was out there official communication between Times photograph based on the projection that the the House of Commons and the by Jake Wright economy was growing faster Senate on Mr.