Mayism Without May? the Crisis of the Regressive Alliance and the Challenge of Corbynism Ken Spours
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Mayism without May? The crisis of the Regressive Alliance and the challenge of Corbynism Ken Spours A publication by Compass Published July 2017 by Compass By Ken Spours © Compass All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism or review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievable system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of Compass. Compass 81a Endell St London WC2H 9DX www.compassonline.org.uk @CompassOffce Compass is a home for those who want to build and be a part of a Good Society; one where equality, sustainability and democracy are not mere aspirations, but a living reality. We are founded on the belief that no single issue, organisation or political party can make a Good Society a reality by themselves so we have to work together to make it happen. Compass is a place where people come together to create the visions, alliances and actions to be the change we wish to see in the world. 4 About the authors CONTENTS About this project 5 Four propositions 5 The Brexit era continues to dominate UK politics, but the balance has changed and a new era may be dawning 5 Mayism without May? The Tories and Regressive Alliance are in deep crisis, but they will try to adapt 6 Corbyn’s Labour has achieved a great deal, but will have to develop a progressive ‘combinational politics’ to reach out across different social groups in order to win the next general election 6 The Progressive bloc has to be led by Labour, but its sustainability will be based on a new alliance-based politics, popular mobilisations and local civic participation of the ‘open platform’ 7 Part 1 Mayism without May? Conservative political hegemony in fux 7 The 2017 general election and a crisis of Tory political governance 8 The socio-political geography of Brexit 9 Mayism as ‘Red Toryism’ – another stage in Conservative political evolution 10 The Conservative electoral bloc and the Regressive Alliance 12 Mayism, the Conservative ‘double-shuffe’ and the next adaptation 15 Part 2 Tensions within Conservative political hegemony 15 The election and the attempted ‘coalition of chaos’ 16 The rise and anticipated fall of Theresa May 17 The longer-term crisis of UK Conservatism 19 Conservative political hegemony – down but not yet out 20 Part 3 Can progressives build a better bloc? 20 An expanded, combinational and collaborative politics to defeat the Regressive Alliance 21 The left bloc is narrow and imbalanced – the need for progressive alliances 22 A new story of a democratic public realm and economic and technological modernity 23 The politics of place, connection and the concept of the ‘progressive national interest’ 24 Grass roots movements as the base of the Progressive Alliance 25 Part 4 The challenge of Corbynism: the challenge for Corbynism 25 The balance of forces in June 2017 – a politico-military metaphor 26 The strengths and limitations of Corbyn’s Labour and the left bloc 27 The crisis of traditional social democracy and its potential renewal through civic socialism 28 The challenge for Corbynism: an expanded left force but not yet mature 29 Three fnal refections 31 Notes 3 Mayism without May? The crisis of the Regressive Alliance and the challenge of Corbynism ABOUT THE AUTHOR ABOUT THIS PROJECT Ken Spours is Professor of Post-Compulsory Compass is the pressure group for a good Education at ULC Institute of Education. society, a world that is much more equal, A committed Gramscian, Ken was a sustainable and democratic. We build alliances Eurocommunist in the 1970s and 1980s and of ideas, parties and movement to help make now is a member of the Labour Party. He is systematic political change happen. We don’t Compass Intellectual Strategy Co-ordinator and just want a bit of change - we want a lot of it. a Compass Associate. He was the author of That demands a hegemonic project and must the Compass report The Osborne Supremacy therefore start with analysis of the dominant and ‘The Very Modern Prince’: the 21st century bloc that determines the common sense of our political party (https://www.compassonline. society. Despite its current weaknesses that is org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/The-21st- still the right. If we are to build a countervailing Century-Party-Very-Modern-Prince-2.pdf). political bloc then it is the strength and weaknesses of the right that we must ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS understand. Future publications will examine issues around progressive political strategy I would like to thank the following - Neal Lawson, based on this Gramscian analysis. Michael Young, Ann Hodgson, David Guile, Freya Johnson-Ross, Martin Doel and Nick Pearce – for their assistance in the production of this post-election version. 4 Mayism without May? The crisis of the Regressive Alliance and the challenge of Corbynism FOUR PROPOSITIONS This think piece starts from the premise that it is important to understand political adversaries not only when they are thoroughly dominant, but also when they have suffered a signifcant reversal. Such an understanding will have implications for the strategy of Labour and the wider left to move beyond the current stalemate, and achieve a future election victory. This paper’s analysis can be reduced to four major propositions: • The Brexit era continues to dominate UK politics, but the balance has changed and a new era may be dawning. • The Tories and Regressive Alliance are in deep crisis, but they will try to adapt. • Corbyn’s Labour has achieved a great deal, but will have to develop a progressive ‘combinational politics’ to reach out across different social groups in order to win the next general election. • The progressive bloc has to be led by Labour, but its sustainability will be based on a new alliance-based politics, popular mobilisations and local civic participation of the ‘open platform’. THE BREXIT ERA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE UK POLITICS, BUT THE BALANCE HAS CHANGED AND A NEW ERA MAY BE DAWNING The Conservative strategy has been to create a wider Regressive Alliance centred around Hard Brexit, which would allow them to draw on UKIP votes. The opinion polls leading up to the 2017 election suggested that this strategy was working as the Tories polled in the upper 40s and UKIP’s share of the vote dived. However, the outcome of the general election and Labour’s surge may have reshaped the direction of Brexit. The period of right populism in England may have passed its peak and a new progressive anti-austerity era may be dawning.1 MAYISM WITHOUT MAY? THE TORIES AND REGRESSIVE ALLIANCE ARE IN DEEP CRISIS, BUT THEY WILL TRY TO ADAPT The Conservatives have formed a weak government and the Regressive Alliance, defned more narrowly as the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), is in disarray. While Theresa May is isolated and 5 Mayism without May? The crisis of the Regressive Alliance and the challenge of Corbynism living on borrowed time (hence the term THE PROGRESSIVE BLOC HAS TO BE LED BY LABOUR, ‘Mayism without May’), the Tories may try to BUT ITS SUSTAINABILITY WILL BE BASED ON A NEW delay a leadership contest and certainly avoid ALLIANCE-BASED POLITICS, POPULAR MOBILISATIONS AND LOCAL CIVIC PARTICIPATION OF THE ‘OPEN a general election for as long as possible. The PLATFORM’ Conservative’s unstable equilibrium continues for now with the support of the DUP and the Arguably the most exciting long-term outcome ‘full fat Brexiteers’ in order to fnd space to of the 8 June 2017 general election was the adapt. The Cameron–Osborne modernisation realisation that all over the country people and Mayism as the new Tory nationalism were (and especially the young) were working for a both political adaptations and the Tories will progressive victory, not only by getting involved try to use the interregnum not only to elect a – the notion of the ‘pop up’ progressive alliance new and more communicative leader, but also of local groups working together – but by also to attempt another adaptation. They may seek making political sacrifces. The smaller parties, to move away from a Conservative version of in particular, collaborated in different localities ‘Blue Labour’ and neoliberal austerity towards in order to clear a path for Labour candidates, a more open and cosmopolitan politics, with with no fewer than 40 local progressive alliances an offer of sorts to young people. Any political emerging. This made an important contribution shift of this sort will be strenuously resisted by to the Labour tally, but its symbolic difference those on the right, who will put forward their own was potentially more signifcant. It signalled candidate (such as David Davis); therefore, the that the politics of the future are underpinned adaptive process could be very confictual and by not only popular mobilisations, but also unconvincing. There is also a longer-term crisis a collaborative and open spirit that truly of conservatism – demographic, cultural and represents a long-haul progressive now economic, with a renewed decline in hegemonic politics. living standards. CORBYN’S LABOUR HAS ACHIEVED A GREAT DEAL, BUT WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP A PROGRESSIVE ‘COMBINATIONAL POLITICS’ TO REACH OUT ACROSS DIFFERENT SOCIAL GROUPS IN ORDER TO WIN THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION The winning of 40 per cent of the vote, which involved the mobilisation of young people and the transfer of some UKIP votes, has been a signifcant achievement. However, Labour cannot simply replay this strategy for the next election. The party will have to up its game through developing a ‘combinational politics’ by forging an internal alliance within the Labour Party to harness a wide range of talent, creating a more coherent Brexit position that articulates the concept of the ‘progressive national interest’, and projecting a much more publicly understood transformative economic strategy.