The Arcc West Africa Regional Climate Change

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The Arcc West Africa Regional Climate Change BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE ARCC WEST AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT March, 2013 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Tetra Tech, ARD. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. Government. African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change Project Curt Carnemark BACKGROUND PAPER FOR THE ARCC WEST AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT USAID African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Contributors to this report, in alphabetical order: Sandra Baptista1, Leif Brottem 2, Alex de Sherbinin1, Melika Edquist1, Alex Fischer1, Marc Levy1, Emilie Schnarr1, Cynthia Simon1, PV Sundareshwar 3, Sylwia Trzaska1 1 Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA 2 University of Wisconsin-Madison 3 USAID Africa Bureau (AFR/SD/EGEA), 1717 H Street, Washington, DC, USA March 2013 Background Paper for the ARCC West Africa Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment TABLE OF CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................6 Executive Summary ...............................................................................................7 1 Introduction..................................................................................................16 2 Overview of West Africa Geography ........................................................16 3 Overview of Climate ...................................................................................18 3.1 Observed Climate and its Variability ..................................................................18 3.1.1 Average Climate ................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1.2 Current Climate Variability.............................................................................................................. 20 3.2 Climate Projections...............................................................................................23 3.2.1 Methods and Challenges................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.2 Projections of Climate in West Africa .......................................................................................... 24 3.3 Current Climate Risk Management.....................................................................26 4 Climate Change Vulnerabilities by Sector and Issue...............................27 4.1 Agriculture .............................................................................................................27 4.1.1 Overview.............................................................................................................................................. 27 4.1.2 Crops .................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Pastoralism and Livestock Production................................................................33 4.2.1 Background.......................................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.2 Climate Change Direct Impacts...................................................................................................... 34 2 Background Paper for the ARCC West Africa Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 4.2.3 Agricultural Expansion and Resource Competition................................................................... 36 4.2.4 Intensification/Diversification of Livelihoods................................................................................ 37 4.2.5 Responses and Adaptations ............................................................................................................. 38 4.3 Rivers and Water Resources ................................................................................41 4.3.1 Major Watershed Overview............................................................................................................ 41 4.3.2 Groundwater Aquifers...................................................................................................................... 43 4.3.3 Estimates of Changing Demands in the Region........................................................................... 44 4.3.4 Hydroelectricity.................................................................................................................................. 44 4.3.5 Data Availability and Climate Modeling......................................................................................... 45 4.3.6 Risk and Water Resource Vulnerability Indices.......................................................................... 45 4.4 Inland and Coastal Wetlands ...............................................................................47 4.4.1 Extent and Distribution of Wetlands in West Africa ................................................................ 46 4.4.2 Sahelian Wetlands .............................................................................................................................. 47 4.4.3 Vulnerability of Floodplain Wetlands............................................................................................. 48 4.4.4 Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands.................................................................................................. 49 4.5 Sea-Level Rise ........................................................................................................50 4.6 Forests and Woodlands ........................................................................................50 4.6.1 The Regional Ecological Gradient................................................................................................... 50 4.6.2 Historical Patterns of Land Use and Forest Cover Change..................................................... 51 4.6.3 Land Use and Forest Cover Change Scenarios under Climate Change................................ 52 4.7 Fisheries..................................................................................................................52 4.7.1 Current Role of Fisheries in West Africa..................................................................................... 53 3 Background Paper for the ARCC West Africa Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 4.7.2 Challenges and Strategies in the Current Fisheries Sector ...................................................... 53 4.7.3 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries.......................................................................... 54 4.7.4 Food and Economic Security Impact of Reduced Landings ...................................................... 56 4.7.5 Adaptation Challenges ...................................................................................................................... 56 4.8 Human Health........................................................................................................57 5 Regional and Local Challenges ...................................................................63 5.1 Potential for Conflict.............................................................................................63 5.1.1 Overview.............................................................................................................................................. 63 5.1.2 Farmer-Herder Conflict ................................................................................................................... 69 5.2 Climate Change and Migration ............................................................................71 5.2.1 Recent Environmental Migration .................................................................................................... 72 5.2.2 Future Climate Change Impacts on Migration............................................................................. 72 6 Guidelines and Recommendations ............................................................73 References .............................................................................................................86 INDEX OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1 ..................................................................................................................17 Figure 2 ..................................................................................................................17 Figure 3 ..................................................................................................................19 Figure 4 ..................................................................................................................20 4 Background Paper for the ARCC West Africa Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Figure 5 .................................................................................................................22 Figure 6 ..................................................................................................................23 Figure 7 ..................................................................................................................25 Figure 8 ..................................................................................................................26 Figure 9 ..................................................................................................................28
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