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CFSGAM Ex-20 Australian SMA Model Portfolio Quarterly Factsheet 30 September 2019 for Adviser Use Only

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CFSGAM Ex-20 Australian SMA Model Portfolio Quarterly Factsheet 30 September 2019 for Adviser Use Only CFSGAM Ex-20 Australian SMA Model Portfolio Quarterly Factsheet 30 September 2019 For Adviser use only Portfolio Description Monthly return (%) A portfolio of 20-50 stocks that is benchmarked against the S&P/ASX 300 Portfolio Benchmark Accumulation ex the S&P/ASX Top 20 Index. As a result, the Portfolio will not 10.0% hold the larger financials and resource companies that dominate the S&P/ASX Top 20 Index, focussing instead on the small to medium sized companies in 5.0% its benchmark. Up to 10% can be held in cash with a minimum of 1%. 0.0% Investment Strategy -5.0% We believe stronger returns are achieved by investing in growing companies that generate consistent returns and reinvest above their cost of capital. -10.0% Indepth industry, stock and valuation analysis is the foundation of our process. -15.0% By tapping into the broader opportunity set of the S&P/ASX 300, the Portfolio is able to diversify away from the larger financials and resources companies 03/2019 06/2019 06/2018 09/2018 12/2018 09/2019 that dominate the S&P/ASX 20 Index and focus on medium to small cap, 03/2018 quality Australian companies with strong balance sheets, earnings growth and Top 10 holdings high or improving returns on invested capital. Stock Investment Objective * Aristocrat Leisure To provide higher long-term capital growth with some income by investing in Charter Hall Group the broader set of Australian companies in the S&P/ASX 300, but outside the Domino's Pizza S&P/ASX 20 Index. The Portfolio aims to outperform the S&P/ASX 300 James Hardie Accumulation Index ex the S&P/ASX Top 20 Index over rolling three year Megaport periods before fees/taxes. Northern Star Resources Key Investment Personnel and Experience (Industry / Firm) REA Group The a2 Milk Company Dushko Bajic Head of Australian Equities, Growth (1996 / 2014) WiseTech Global David Wilson Deputy Head (1987 / 2015) Xero Christian Guerra Head of Research (1996 / 2016) Sorted alphabetically Product Overview Risk Characteristics Inception date 23 March 2018 Period 1yr SI Benchmark S&P/ASX 300 ex 20 Accumulation Index Portfolio standard deviation (%) 15.8 14.6 Target Asset Allocation ** Australian shares 95-99% / Cash 1-5% Benchmark standard deviation (%) 12.6 10.6 Number of stock holdings Typically 20-50 Tracking error (%) 6.1 7.0 Minimum investment As per platform provider Portfolio Sharpe ratio 0.5 0.6 Managed account fee (p.a.)*** 0.75% Information ratio -0.2 0.4 Beta 1.2 1.2 Performance summary (%) Period 3mth 6mth 1yr SI Net return 3.2 12.7 10.0 16.0 Benchmark return 4.6 11.5 11.0 12.7 Excess net return -1.4 1.2 -1.0 3.3 * Investment objective is not a forecast and returns are not guaranteed. ** The target asset allocation should only be used as a guide. The portfolio managers aim to maintain each portfolio within target investment allocation ranges, however, the actual asset allocation may vary from the target investment allocation. *** Additional fees and charges may apply. Please consult your platform provider. CFSGAM Ex-20 Australian SMA Model Portfolio Growth of AUD 10,000 Investment Since Inception Portfolio Benchmark $13,000 $12,500 $12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $9,500 $9,000 03/2018 06/2018 09/2018 12/2018 03/2019 06/2019 09/2019 Top 5 attributors to performance (3 months) Top 5 detractors to performance (3 months) Sector Weight Sector Weight Information Technology 0.91% Consumer Staples -1.44% Materials 0.58% Industrials -1.34% Health Care 0.53% Consumer Discretionary -1.10% Communication Services 0.51% Real Estate -0.33% Energy 0.33% Utilities 0.13% Performance returns are calculated net of management fees and transaction costs. Performance returns for periods greater than one year are annualised. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Data source: First Sentier Investors 2019 Data as at: 30 September 2019 Market review The theme of ongoing monetary policy stimulation outweighed the lacklustre reporting season with the S&P/ASX 300 ex S&P/ASX “Top” 20 Accumulation Index rising a robust +4.6% over the September quarter. The Reserve Bank again lowered the cash rate in July – the first back-to-back cut since 2012 – in a bid to “support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium term target”. However, the market positivity following the interest rate cut faded in August as the domestic reporting season provided little excitement to shareholders. To the benefit of equity investors, RBA meeting minutes from the September meeting were unexpectedly dovish and hinted that another rate cut may be on the cards in the October (since confirmed) and November meetings. The impressive rally of the Consumer Staples sector through July helped it to become the best performing sector over the quarter. The +9.7% surge over the quarter was supported by strong performances in Bellamy’s (BAL), Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) and Coles (+18.4). BAL surged 56.7% after receiving a takeover offer from Chinese giant, China Mengnui Dairy Company, which was subsequently backed by BAL’s board. TWE (+25.8%) recovered from previous weakness early in the quarter as trade data showed that the value of Australian wine exports to China rose to new highs. A positive FY19 result in August bolstered investor sentiment with the ANZ and Asia regions exceeding expectations. Notable performances from JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Domino’s Pizza (+24.9%) and Jumbo Interactive (+21.2%) helped push the Consumer Discretionary sector into second place (+6.9%). JBH delivered a stronger than expected FY19 result as it exceeded guidance with a 7% lift in net profit. The result came as a surprise to the market, with the share price rallying +10% on the day, and was driven by margin improvements in The Good Guys business. Utilities (1.6%) lagged over the quarter as sector heavyweight, AGL, fell -0.9%, largely owing to poor performance over the earnings season. The company flagged a 17-25% downgrade to earnings guidance for FY20 owing to headwinds including electricity prices, the Large-scale Renewable Energy Certificate (LREC) charge, retail regulation and cost pressures. Even a 5% buyback was not enough to ease the pain to investors. Financials also struggled, only managing a 2.5% gain over the quarter. CYBG (CYB), the holding company that owns the UK bank assets demerged from NAB in 2016 including Clydesdale Bank and Yorkshire Bank tumbled -39% over the last three months. As well as suffering from the broader concerns associated with the Brexit uncertainty, CYB (-18.4%) also announced higher than expected costs from Payment Protection Insurance claims forcing management to make an additional provision of £300m to £450m. AMP (-13.9%) also fell heavily earlier in the quarter when its plans to sell AMP Life was thwarted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand imposing conditions that apparently undermined the commercial returns expected from the sale. Portfolio performance With the benchmark (the S&P/ASX 300 ex S&P/ASX “Top” 20 Accumulation Index) rising solidly over the quarter, the Australian ex Top 20 model portfolio struggled to keep up and underperformed by -1.4%. Since inception, however, the portfolio is still delivering strong outperformance of 4.1%pa. The major contributors to the quarterly underperformance were the portfolio’s overweight positions to:- Nearmap (-31.7%), Webjet (-19.9%) and a2 Milk (-12.2%). Nearmap (NEA) fell despite delivering FY19 revenue above expectations, but its loss was also above analyst forecasts as the company increases its brand awareness in the US by spending more on sales and marketing. The business provides high-resolution 2D and 3D imaging of buildings and infrastructure and its camera system is considered by analysts to be best-in-class. We believe the sales and marketing investment will help to drive CFSGAM Ex-20 Australian SMA Model Portfolio stronger growth in North America and maintain our overweight in the company. Despite achieving significant growth across key financial metrics in FY19, Webjet (WEB) struggled as continued newsflow of struggling British travel group Thomas Cook (TC) weighed on the travel industry. Management explained that, because of TC and its recent collapse, it would need to revise earnings expectations lower – particularly in its WebBeds business. While the news is disappointing, we feel the recent price action is unwarranted given WEB’s limited exposure to TC and the robust earnings and market share growth WEB’s core business continues to experience. A2 Milk (A2M) also fell as investors were disappointed with its FY19 result despite achieving impressive revenue (41%) and profit (48%) growth. The market instead chose to focus on management’s forward earnings guidance that suggested FY20 earnings margins would be similar to the second half of FY19 given a step-up in marketing costs. This came as a surprise to the market as investors downgraded their forward earnings expectations. We remain attracted to the company’s robust growth outlook, with improving market share in key geographies. Our view is that the near-term marketing spend will help establish A2M as a global market leader over the medium-term. Somewhat offsetting those detractors were the portfolio’s overweight positions in three stocks that outperformed over the September quarter:- James Hardie (+32.9%), Megaport (+39.2%) and Afterpay Touch (+43.1%). Investors reacted positively to James Hardie’s first quarter FY20 earnings result as operational efficiencies and above market volume growth meant earnings were above consensus expectations. Forward guidance provided by management closely matched market expectations and provided comfort that a credible execution plan is in place to help grow the business.
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