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The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones
Current Climate Change Reports https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4 MID-LATITUDE PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE (I SIMPSON, SECTION EDITOR) The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones Jennifer L. Catto1 & Duncan Ackerley2 & James F. Booth3 & Adrian J. Champion1 & Brian A. Colle4 & Stephan Pfahl5 & Joaquim G. Pinto6 & Julian F. Quinting6 & Christian Seiler7 # The Author(s) 2019 Abstract Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones . Climate change . Windstorms . Idealized model . CMIP models Introduction These features are a vital part of the global circulation and bring a large proportion of precipitation to the midlatitudes, The way in which most people will experience climate change including very heavy precipitation events [1–5], which can is via changes to the weather where they live. -
Return Periods of Losses Associated with European Windstorm Series in a Changing Climate
Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate J.G. Pinto (a,b) M.K. Karremann (b) M. Reyers (b) M. Klawa (c) (a) Univ. Reading, UK (b) Univ. Cologne, Germany (c) Deutsche Rück, Germany Contact: [email protected] 1 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Motivation - European Storm Climatology, Top 15 Events Storm Storm Economic Damage Storm Name Fatalities rank Year Actual (USD) 1 1999 Lothar 137 11,350,000,000 2 2007 Kyrill 47 10,000,000,000 1990 season 3 1990 Daria 97 7,000,000,000 1999 season 4 2010 Xynthia 64 6,100,000,000 5 1999 Martin 90 6,000,000,000 6 2009 Klaus 28 6,000,000,000 7 2005 Erwin 18 5,505,000,000 8 1976 Capella 0 5,000,000,000 9 1987 Great Storm of 1987 23 4,000,000,000 10 1990 Vivian 50 3,500,000,000 11 1999 Anatol 27 3,000,000,000 12 2002 Jeanett 38 2,531,000,000 13 1995 Thalia 28 2,310,000,000 Multiple occurrences per year may be critical 14 1990 Wiebke 67 2,260,000,000 for contractual reasons 15 1990 Herta 30 1,960,000,000 Source: Perils 2 Joaquim G. Pinto Bern 01 Sept. 2015 Serial clustering of cyclones over North Atlantic / Europe Physical processes: a) Steering by large-scale patterns b) Secondary cyclogenesis (cyclone families) Jet stream, NAO++ Dispersion Dispersion statistics Ψ <0: serial regularity All P95 Ψ =0: serial randomness Ψ >0: serial clustering Sources: Pinto et al., 2009, Clim. -
I Don't Think I Need to Remind Anyone Here What a Catastrophic Event The
I don’t think I need to remind anyone here what a catastrophic event The Great Storm of 1987 was. In the build-up to its 30th anniversary last month we were treated to almost round the clock coverage in the media – on its meteorological back story - its violent trajectory across the southern half of the country - and everything from well-publicised and embarrassing forecasting failures - to the exponential loss of trees. I have a very personal reason for writing this book and this evening, I’d like to tell you how I came to write it, and where it all began; what I learned about storms and what this one, in particular, taught us and also how the themes of the title, Landscape, Legacy and Loss - came to define my own unique perspective - in the reframing and retelling of this powerful, collective national memory - 30 years on. 1 But let’s start with the weather… As our lifestyles change - as fewer of us work outdoors or have our livelihoods influenced by the weather – we’re much less affected by it than we used to be. This gradual disconnection from the outside world, means that weather events need to be truly exceptional before they stick in our minds - and that we quickly forget all but the most extreme, the most outrageous. If you were to ask a cross section of the population to give you their most vivid weather memories - each generation would be able to tell you about their own exceptionally hot or wet summer or their coldest, most severe winter. -
Zoological Society of London Prince Philip Zoological Library & Archives
Zoological Society of London Prince Philip Zoological Library & Archives Newly Acquired Books January 2018 Library opening hours: 9.30am–5.30pm, Monday-Friday (excluding bank holidays) Library catalogue http://library.zsl.org Library email [email protected] | Library direct line 020 7449 6293 Follow us on Twitter: @ZSLLibrary See our Artefact of the Month “Women and the blue planet – contributions of some women to our knowledge of marine zoology” http://www.zsl.org/blogs/artefact-of-the-month Zoological Gardens AJ/JP Pairi Daiza : le guide officiel du Jardin des Mondes. - Brugelette : Paira Daiza, 2017 Presented by Anthony Sheridan, November 2017. AJT/U Regional Animal Species Collection Plan : designed and developed by the Australasian Regional Association of Zoological Parks and Aquaria. - Mosman, N.S.W. : ARAZPA, 1996 27AJ/LN Throughout the Belgrade Zoo. - Belgrade : Belgrade Zoo, 2011 Presented by Anthony Sheridan, November 2017. 27AJ/LZ Let's visit Warsaw Zoo. - Warsaw : Warsaw Zoo, [20--?] Presented by Anthony Sheridan, November 2017. 28AJ/EP The Halifax Zoo and Amusement Park / by Harry Armitage. - rev. ed. - [S.l.] : Alan Ashby, 2016 28AJ/IQ Giardino Zoologico di Pistoia : pigmenti. - Pistoia : Giardino zoologico di Pistoia, [20--?] Presented by Anthony Sheridan, November 2017. Conservation AP,AF Current trends in wildlife research / Rafael Mateo, Beatriz Arroyo, Jesus T. Garcia, editors. - Switzerland : Springer, 2016 AP,GA Ecological challenges and conservation conundrums : essays and reflections for a changing world / John A. Wiens. - Chichester : Wiley, 2016 A green future [electronic resource] : our 25 year plan to improve the environment / HM Government. - London : Defra, 2018 Freely available online via the Gov.uk website http://bit.ly/2EABNcB Nature's way [electronic resource] : the environment for success : practical proposals for the government's 25 year environment plan / WWT. -
Pension News Dec 14.Pdf
Pearl Group Staff Pension Scheme December 2014 PENSION news INSIDE: • Club updates pages 4-6 • Lunch at High Holborn page 7 2 Pension news It is our sad duty to tell you that Lynne Coniff, who edited Pension News for the last 13 years, passed Hello… and welcome to away on 22 November 2014. As Lynne had already prepared this the December 2014 issue of Pension News. latest edition we thought it was It seems like no time at all since I The Editor, Pearl Pension News, fitting that it should be published as introduced you to the Summer issue! First Actuarial LLP, First House, Lynne had intended. Lynne will be I’m glad to report that you’re still Minerva Business Park, Lynch Wood, missed by everyone who had the enjoying stirring up old memories Peterborough PE2 6FT. privilege of working with her and of your time with the Pearl – we’ve our thoughts are with Mike, Lynne’s Wishing you a wonderful Christmas had a couple of replies to the ‘mighty husband, and the rest of her family and a happy New Year. oaks’ article in the last issue, which at this difficult time. Lynne Coniff celebrated the 150th birthday of Pearl, Editor and the 65th birthday of the Pearl 2015 pension pay dates Pension Scheme. We also have two more ‘add the name’ challenges – one The pension pay dates for 2015 in the form of a sketch, which should are as follows: prove interesting! 23 Jan 22 May 25 Sept 25 Feb 25 June 23 Oct As always, please keep your 25 March 24 July 25 Nov contributions coming: 24 April 25 Aug 22 Dec Pension news 3 Stirring up memories Mr Alan F Lankshear Allan G Cook from Halstead, Essex wrote: “I recognised several Following the article ‘From little acorns, mighty names but one in particular prompted memories of my early oaks grow’ in the last issue, we received two days at Pearl and that is of Mr Alan F Lankshear. -
WILDFIRE Editingанаjames Taggartаа Achievements
WILDFIRE EDITING James Taggart 07966197009 [email protected] I am a passionate, fun to work with and fast editor with a natural sense for story and rhythm. I love to develop ideas within a motivated and creative team. In 2004 I gained a nomination for Best Editing for my first film at Wildscreen. Since then I have developed my skills as an Editor and have worked on Natural History, Drama and Sports. In 2015 I won at Jackson Hole wildlife festival for my editing on Wild Yellowstone for Nat Geo Wild. My technical background in edit support is vital with today’s complicated Post Production workflows and Media Management. I’m fluent on Avid, Final Cut Pro and Premier Pro systems. Both 2D and 3D projects. I have an USA iVisa valid until 2019. Achievements Wild Yellowstone Natgeo/Brainfarm Best Editing JHWFF 2015 Winner Cinematography JHWFF 2015 Winner Tiny Giants 3D Best 3D Nature TV show International 3D summit 2015 winner Best Immersive JHWFF 2015 Winner Natural World, Savannah Queen Rosca Awards: Best Writing, Winner RTS West: Best Editing, Nomination RTS West: Best Cinematography, Nomination Africa Kalahari Jackson Hole 2013, Best Editing, runner up(joint nomination) ‘Ella’, UK Film Council Killer Film Fest 2012 (USA) Nomination Editing Killer Film Fest 2012 (USA) winner BEST SHORT CINEMATOGRAPHY & ACTOR 2012 Limelight Film Awards 2012 (UK) winner BEST HORROR 2012 Cabbagetown Short Film Festival 2012 (CANADA) winner BEST SUSPENSE 2012 Wildlife on One Dragonflies, Beauty or Beast? Best Editing Wildscreen 2004, -
The Great Storm of 1987: 20-Year Retrospective
THE GREAT STORM OF 1987: 20-YEAR RETROSPECTIVE RMS Special Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Great Storm of October 15–16, 1987 hit northern France and southern England with unexpected ferocity. Poorly forecast, unusually strong, and occurring early in the winter windstorm season, this storm — known in the insurance industry as “87J” — has been ascribed negative consequences beyond its direct effects, including severe loss amplification, and according to one theory, the precipitation of a major global stock market downturn. Together with other catastrophic events of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the storm brought some companies to financial ruin, while at the same time creating new business opportunities for others. The global reinsurance industry in particular was forced to adapt to survive. In this climate, the way was clear for new capital to enter the market, and for the development of innovative ways to assess and transfer the financial risk from natural hazards and other perils. Twenty years following the 1987 event, this report chronicles the unique features of the storm and the potential impact of the event should it occur in 2007, in the context of RMS’ current understanding of the windstorm risk throughout Europe. The possible consequences of a storm with similar properties taking a subtly different path are also considered. In 1987, losses from the storm totalled £1.4 billion (US$2.3 billion) in the U.K. alone. RMS estimates that if the Great Storm of 1987 were to recur in 2007, it would cause between £4 billion and £7 billion (between US$8 billion and US$14.5 billion) in insured loss Europe-wide. -
The Human Element in Forecasting - a Personal Viewpoint Martin V Young (Guidance Unit, UK Met Office, Exeter)
The Human Element in Forecasting - a Personal Viewpoint Martin V Young (Guidance Unit, UK Met Office, Exeter) Introduction experienced Lead Forecasters recognise these all- important psychological aspects without necessarily “It should have been obvious all along that the fog realising it. Examples are addressed in turn in this wouldn’t clear…” paper. “Why didn’t the previous shift issue the thunderstorm warnings sooner?” Whilst a thorough underpinning meteorological “Why have we been lumbered with those snow warn- knowledge should be a pre-requisite, this paper aims ings that were clearly overdone?” to provide an insight and awareness into the all- important human factors that can influence the deci- How often have we asked such questions of sion-making process. Whilst other authors (e.g. colleagues, or even ourselves, on a forecasting shift? Doswell 2004) have addressed decision-making in And what lessons can we, as forecasters, learn, not so weather forecasting with the help of cognitive much about the meteorological science, but how we psychology, this paper uses examples (largely derived approach decision-making? from the author’s personal experience) to identify some potential pitfalls and barriers to effective deci- Even though meteorology has developed into a rigor- sion-making along with how to overcome them, there- ous science, the inherent uncertainty in many situa- by optimising the role of humans in weather tions means that a variety of different outcomes can forecasting. usually be envisaged especially in a finely-balanced situation. Therefore a judgement call is usually required. In an ideal world that judgement should Stand Back and Take Stock always be balanced and analytical, based on hard evidence as well as intuition. -
Dr. M. Sanjayan − Host
BIG BLUE LIVE Bios Dr. M. Sanjayan − Host Dr. M. Sanjayan is a leading conservation scientist, writer, public speaker and Emmy-nominated news contributor, specializing in how conservation can improve human well-being. He serves on Conservation International’s senior leadership team as executive vice president and senior scientist. Earlier this year, he hosted the PBS series EARTH – A NEW WILD, produced by National Geographic Television in association with Passion Pictures, which revealed how humans are inextricably linked with nature. Dr. Sanjayan’s broad- reaching television experience includes the BBC documentary Planet Earth: The Future, and Discovery Channel’s Expedition Alaska, Mysteries of the Shark Coast and its acclaimed four-part series on energy, Powering the Future. Dr. Sanjayan holds a masters degree from the University of Oregon and a doctorate from the University of California, Santa Cruz. His peer-reviewed scientific work has been published in journals including Science, Nature and Conservation Biology. He is a Clinton Global Initiative Senior Advisor, a Catto Fellow at the Aspen Institute and a member of National Geographic Society’s Explorers Council. Dr. Joy S. Reidenberg − Scientist Dr. Joy S. Reidenberg, Ph.D., is a comparative anatomist who has traveled the world to study a variety of species ranging from insects to whales. Her research is focused on examining unusual anatomical adaptations that evolved from the same basic structures present in other animals, including humans. Dr. Reidenberg’s research and scientific expertise have been featured in many science and educational television documentaries. She was a co-host of PBS’ SEX IN THE WILD, which examined animal reproduction, and INSIDE NATURE’S GIANTS, which explored the anatomy, function and evolution of large animals. -
Resilience and the Threat of Natural Disasters in Europe Denis Binder
Resilience and the Threat of Natural Disasters in Europe Denis Binder, Chapman University, United States The European Conference on Sustainability, Energy & the Environment 2018 Official Conference Proceedings iafor The International Academic Forum www.iafor.org Introduction This paper focuses on the existential threat of natural hazards. History and recent experience tell us that the most constant, and predictable, hazard in Europe is that of widespread flooding with storms, often with hurricane force winds, slamming the coastal area and causing flooding inland as well. The modern world is seemingly plagued with the scourges of the Old Testament: earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanoes, hurricanes and cyclones, wildfires, avalanches and landslides. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, have perished globally in natural hazards, falling victim to extreme forces of nature. None of these perils are new to civilization. Both the Gilgamesh Epic1 and the Old Testament talk of epic floods.2 The Egyptians faced ten plagues. The Minoans, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, and Ottomans experienced earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and pestilence. A cyclone destroyed Kublai Khan’s invasion fleet of Japan on August 15, 1281. A massive earthquake in Shaanxi Province, China on January 23, 1556 is estimated to have killed 830,000 persons. A discussion of extreme hazards often involves a common misconception of 100 year floods, 500 year floods, 200 year returns, and similar periods. A mistaken belief is that a “100 year” flood only occurs once a century. The measurement period is a statistical average over an extended period of time. It is not a means of forecasting. It means that on average a storm of that magnitude will occur once in a hundred years, but these storms could be back to back. -
JACOB PARISH – OFFLINE EDITOR AVID/FCP/PREMIERE PRO 07708965258 Ja [email protected]
JACOB PARISH – OFFLINE EDITOR AVID/FCP/PREMIERE PRO 07708965258 ja [email protected] I’ve cut feature length documentaries for cinema, long and short form T.V programs for major broadcasters, commercials, promos and award-winning shorts. I pride myself on the relaxed atmosphere that I bring to an edit, my fast technical skills and my experience of working on a wide variety of genres. With a strong understanding of music and sound, I have an instinctive ability to create engaging harmonious audio visual scenes that take audiences on emotional, entertaining and thought provoking journeys. 2015 Mikado 'Dummy' Music Video Director – Oliver Zimmermann 2015 BBC - Weird World (8X60') – Lead Editor Doc Series Producer – Aaron Paul 2015 Bellbird Pictures - Sonics from Scratch (1x80') Indie Feature Doc / Premiere at NZ International Film Festival Director Simon Ogston / Orlando Stewart 2015 Porthcawl’s Elvis Festival (1x60’) Indie Ob Doc Producer/Director – David Barnes 2013 BBC NHU – Wild Brazil (3x10') Nominated for best editing RTS Awards 2015 Doc - End of program diaries Producer – Joe Stevens / Ted Giffords 2013 BBC ONE / BBC WORLDWIDE - 24 Hours on Earth (1x60' & 1x50') Doc Producer – Chloe Pearns 2013 Zim Media - The King and the People (1x60') Ob doc Director – Simon Bright 2013 BBC Factual – Wastemen (1x5') Pilot Producer – Rachel Williams 2013 Optima Films - Scratching the Surface (1x30') Ob Doc Director – Nathan Hughes 2013 Optima Film - Hidden Fields Teaser Trailer - RTS Winner 2013 Producer/DOP/Editor 2012 BBC NHU – Africa Intro -
Wächter Der Wüste
Präsentiert WÄCHTER DER WÜSTE - AUCH KLEINE HELDEN KOMMEN GANZ GROSS RAUS Von den Produzenten von „Unsere Erde“ Ein Film von James Honeyborne Erzählt von Rufus Beck Kinostart: 20. November 2008 PRESSEHEFT PRESSEBETREUUNG filmpresse meuser in good company PR GmbH gisela meuser Ariane Kraus (Geschäftsführerin) niddastr. 64 h Deike Stagge 60329 frankfurt Rankestraße 3 10789 Berlin Tel.: 069 / 40 58 04 – 0 Tel: 030 / 880 91 – 550 Fax: 069 / 40 58 04 - 13 Fax: 030 / 880 91 - 703 [email protected] [email protected] Über unsere Homepage www.centralfilm.de haben Sie die Möglichkeit, sich für die Presse- Lounge zu akkreditieren. Dort stehen Ihnen alle Pressematerialien, Fotos und viele weitere Informationen als Download zur Verfügung. 2 INHALTSVERZEICHNIS STAB, TECHNISCHE DATEN KURZINHALT, PRESSENOTIZ PRODUKTIONSNOTIZEN ÜBER ERDMÄNNCHEN DIE BBC NATURAL HISTORY UNIT DER STAB REGISSEUR JAMES HONEYBORNE PRODUZENT JOE OPPENHEIMER PRODUZENT TREVOR INGMAN KAMERAMANN BARRIE BRITTON KAMERAMANN MARK PAYNE GILL CUTTER JUSTIN KRISH TONMEISTER CHRIS WATSON KOMPONISTIN SARAH CLASS ERZÄHLER RUFUS BECK 3 STAB Regie James Honeyborne Produzent Joe Oppenheimer Trevor Ingman Kamera Barrie Britton Mark Payne Gill Ton Chris Watson Schnitt Justin Krish Musik Sarah Class TECHNISCHE DATEN Länge 83 Minuten Bildformat Cinemascope Tonformat Dolby Digital 4 KURZINHALT WÄCHTER DER WÜSTE dokumentiert in atemberaubenden Bildern das aufregende Leben einer Erdmännchen-Familie in der Kalahari-Wüste. Der Film erzählt von der Geburt des kleinen Erdmännchens Kolo, seinem Aufwachsen und den täglichen Herausforderungen in der Wüste. Kolo macht seine ersten Schritte in eine Welt voller Abenteuer und tödlicher Gefahren und lernt vom großen Bruder die entscheidenden Lektionen zum Überleben. Denn um in der Kalahari groß zu werden, muss man wachsam sein, seine Feinde kennen und auch während der Dürre genügend Nahrung finden.