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Design and Investigation of a Decision Support System for Public Policy Formulation

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Design and Investigation of a Decision Support System for Public Policy Formulation Design and Investigation of a Decision Support System for Public Policy Formulation Osama Ibrahim Academic dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Computer and Systems Sciences at Stockholm University to be publicly defended on Friday 12 October 2018 at 13.00 in Lilla hörsalen, NOD-huset, Borgarfjordsgatan 12. Abstract The ultimate aim of support for public policy decision making is to develop ways of facilitating policymaking that can create policies that are consistent with the preferences of policymakers and stakeholders (such as an increase in economic growth, the reduction of social inequalities, and improvements to the environment), and that are at the same time based on the available knowledge and evidential information. Using the design science research methodology, an iterative design process was followed to build and evaluate a research artefact in the form of an analytical method that is also operationalised as a decision support system (DSS) – in order to facilitate the problem analysis, the impact assessment and the decision evaluation activities carried out at the policy formulation stage of the policymaking process. The DSS provides a web-based, user-friendly interface for two main software modules: (i) a tool for modelling and simulation of policy scenarios; and (ii) a tool for multi-criteria evaluation of policy decisions. The target end-users of the DSS tools are policymakers, the support staff of politicians, policy analysts and researchers within governmental departments and parliaments at the various institutional levels of the European Union. The proposed model-based decision support approach integrates systems thinking, problem structuring methods and multi-criteria decision analysis, in what can be described as a ‘sense-making’ approach. A new policy-oriented quantitative problem structuring method is introduced in this research, the ‘labelled causal mapping’ method, which aims to reduce the cognitive overload involved in representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling in order to facilitate knowledge representation and system analysis. One contribution of this work is an object-oriented implementation of a prototype tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy decision situations based on the labelled causal mapping method. The method provides a basis for further computational decision analysis. We proposed criteria models and data formats for common (generic) policy appraisal, and a preference elicitation method for in-depth decision evaluation based on the results of scenario simulation and the preferences of decision makers and stakeholder groups. The artefact evaluation clarifies how well the proposed approach and the DSS tool prototype support a solution to the problem and the extent to which the outcomes in two policy analysis use cases are useful in terms of output analysis and knowledge synthesis. The contributions of this research to theory and practice were articulated based on the design knowledge obtained through an iterative design process, notably the emergence of the concepts of transparency and intelligibility in policymodelling, (i.e., the need for explicit and interpretable models that can provide justification of a specific decision). Keywords: Systems Thinking, Prescriptive Policy Analysis, Policy modelling and Simulation, ICT for governane, Sense4us, Policy Impact Assessment, Scenario Planning, Knowledge synthesis. Stockholm 2018 http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-159437 ISBN 978-91-7797-426-0 ISBN 978-91-7797-427-7 ISSN 1101-8526 Department of Computer and Systems Sciences Stockholm University, 164 07 Kista DESIGN AND INVESTIGATION OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR PUBLIC POLICY FORMULATION Osama Ibrahim Design and Investigation of a Decision Support System for Public Policy Formulation Osama Ibrahim ©Osama Ibrahim, Stockholm University 2018 ISBN print 978-91-7797-426-0 ISBN PDF 978-91-7797-427-7 ISSN 1101-8526 Printed in Sweden by Universitetsservice US-AB, Stockholm 2018 This work is dedicated to my parents for their love and endless support. Abstract The ultimate aim of support for public policy decision making is to develop ways of facilitating policymaking that can create policies that are consistent with the preferences of policymakers and stakeholders (such as an increase in economic growth, the reduction of social inequalities, and improvements to the environment), and that are at the same time based on the available knowledge and evidential information. Using the design science research methodology, an iterative design process was followed to build and evaluate a research artefact in the form of an analytical method that is also operationalised as a decision support system (DSS) – in order to facilitate the problem analysis, the impact assessment and the decision evaluation activities carried out at the policy formulation stage of the policymaking process. The DSS provides a web-based, user-friendly interface for two main software modules: (i) a tool for modelling and simulation of policy scenarios; and (ii) a tool for multi-criteria evaluation of policy decisions. The target end-users of the DSS tools are policymakers, the support staff of politicians, policy analysts and researchers within governmental departments and parliaments at the various institutional levels of the European Union. The proposed model-based decision support approach integrates systems thinking, problem structuring methods and multi-criteria decision analysis, in what can be described as a ‘sense-making’ approach. A new policy-oriented quantitative problem structuring method is introduced in this research, the ‘labelled causal mapping’ method, which aims to reduce the cognitive overload involved in representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling in order to facilitate knowledge representation and system analysis. One contribution of this work is an object-oriented implementation of a prototype tool for systems modelling and simulation of policy decision situations based on the labelled causal mapping method. The method provides a basis for further computational decision analysis. We proposed criteria models and data formats for common (generic) policy appraisal, and a preference elicitation method for in-depth decision evaluation based on the results of scenario simulation and the preferences of decision makers and stakeholder groups. The artefact evaluation clarifies how well the proposed approach and the DSS tool prototype support a solution to the problem and the extent to which ii the outcomes in two policy analysis use cases are useful in terms of output analysis and knowledge synthesis. The contributions of this research to theory and practice were articulated based on the design knowledge obtained through an iterative design process, notably the emergence of the concepts of transparency and intelligibility in policy modelling, (i.e., the need for explicit and interpretable models that can provide justification of a specific decision). iii Sammanfattning Det yttersta målet för beslutsstöd i skapandet av policyer i offentlig verksamhet är att utveckla sätt att underlätta skapandet av policyer som överensstämmer med politiska beslutsfattares och intressenters preferenser (till exempel en ökning av ekonomisk tillväxt, minskning av sociala ojämlikheter och förbättringar av miljön), och som samtidigt baseras på tillgänglig kunskap och tillförlitlig information. Med hjälp av designforskningsmetodiken följdes en iterativ designprocess för att bygga och utvärdera en forskningsartefakt i form av en analysmetod som också är operativiserad som ett beslutsstödssystem för att underlätta problemanalys, konsekvensbedömning och beslutsutvärdering som genomförs i formuleringsstadiet i den policyskapande processen. Beslutsstödssystemet tillhandahåller ett webbaserat, användarvänligt gränssnitt med två huvudmoduler: (i) ett verktyg för modellering och simulering av policyscenarier och (ii) ett verktyg för utvärdering av policybeslut med flera kriterier. De tänkta slutanvändarna av beslutsstödsverktygen är policyskapare, politiska tjänstemän, politiska analytiker och forskare inom statliga myndigheter och parlament på de olika institutionella nivåerna i Europeiska unionen. Det föreslagna modellbaserade beslutsstödsättet integrerar systemtänkande, problemstruktureringsmetoder och multikriteriebeslutsanalys, i vad som kan beskrivas som en meningsskapande strategi. En ny policyorienterad kvantitativ problemstruktureringsmetod introduceras i denna forskning,”labelled causal mapping" -metoden, som syftar till att minska den kognitiva överbelastningen som följer av att representera komplexa mentala modeller genom att använda systemdynamisk simuleringsmodellering för att underlätta kunskapsrepresentation och systemanalys. Ett bidrag från detta arbete är en objektorienterad implementering av ett prototypverktyg för systemmodellering och simulering av beslutssituationer på policynivån utifrån ”labelled causal mapping"- metoden. Metoden utgör grunden för vidare datorstödd beslutsanalys. Vi har föreslagit kriteriemodeller och dataformat för gemensam (generisk) policybedömning och en preferenseliciteringsmetod för djupgående beslutsvärdering baserat på resultaten av scenariosimulering och beslutsfattares och intressentgruppers preferenser. iv Artefaktutvärderingen klargör hur väl det föreslagna tillvägagångssättet och beslutsstödsverktygsprototypen stöder en lösning på givna problem och i vilken utsträckning resultaten i två
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