GAME CAPSULE WEEK 16 CHRISTMAS MATCHUP by Matt Wilson Fantasysharks.Com Senior Writer MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-8) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4)
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GAME CAPSULE WEEK 16 CHRISTMAS MATCHUP By Matt Wilson FantasySharks.com Senior Writer MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-8) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (10-4) FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25 TH 4 :30 P.M. ET MERCEDES–BENZ SUPERDOME NEW ORLEANS, LA LINE: N.O . – 7 .0 OVER/UNDER: 51.0 MINNESOTA VIKINGS INJURIES TO MONITOR: Kyle Rudolph (foot), Alexander Mattison (concussion) BYE: Week 8 Consecutive losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears have left the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread. The Vikings need to win two straight on the road and get a ton of help in order to make the postseason, which includes the unlikely scenario of the Bears and Arizona Cardinals both losing their final two regular-season games. Minnesota’s defense has improved following a terrible start but still isn’t as good as it was last season, which will be the difference in this game. QUARTERBACK MATCHUP In six road contests played this season, Kirk Cousins has tossed just seven touchdown strikes and eclipsed 260 passing yards in only one outing. The New Orleans Saints defense has permitted the eighth-fewest passing yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position. Cousins’ fantasy ceiling in this matchup doesn’t look very high. RUNNING BACK MATCHUP The must-start Dalvin Cook remains red hot as he comes off his fourth 100-yard game in the last five weeks. During the last two months, Cook racked up six 100-yard outings (including a 200- yard effort) and scored nine times in eight contests played. For the season, New Orleans’ defense has yielded the fifth-fewest rushing yards and the second-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. The Saints also have allowed just one 100-yard rusher in their last 57 games. However, New Orleans coughed up a combined 267 rushing yards and the three running back touchdowns to the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs during the last two weeks, which is why Cook will have a nice game. WIDE RECEIVER MATCHUP Even though rookie Justin Jefferson didn’t play much during the first two weeks of the season, he leads the Vikings with 103 targets, 73 receptions and 1,182 receiving yards. Jefferson also has logged seven touchdown catches. Adam Thielen tops Minnesota with 13 scoring grabs, but he has amassed just 94 targets, 62 catches and 771 receiving yards. The Saints defense has yielded the fourth-fewest wideout fantasy points during the last month. Jefferson is expected to spend most of the afternoon battling No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans hasn’t allowed a top-12 wideout performance since Week 8, and Jefferson hasn’t scored in a road game. Thielen will square off mainly against Janoris Jenkins, who has enjoyed a strong season. However, keep in mind that Thielen has compiled receiving lines of 7-129-0, 7-103-1 and 6-74-0, respectively, versus the Saints in the last two seasons. TIGHT END MATCHUP Kyle Rudolph (foot) will miss his third straight game, which is a shame. A guy with the name Rudolph should play on Christmas Day. Get it? During the last two weeks, Irv Smith has compiled receiving lines of 4-63-1 (four targets) and 3-37-0 (four targets), respectively, but more was expected. Unfortunately, Tyler Conklin cut into Smith’s workload, compiling receiving lines of 5-40-0 (five targets) and 3-57-1 (four targets), respectively as Rudolph’s replacement. The New Orleans defense has tightened up against the tight end position during the last month, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points and one score to the position. WEEK 16 PLAYER PROJECTIONS PASS PASS RUSH RUSH REC REC PLAYER REC YDS TD YDS TD YDS TD QB Kirk Cousins 260 1 12 0 RB Dalvin Cook 95 1 5 38 0 RB Alexander Mattison -- -- -- -- -- -- -- RB Mike Boone 10 0 0 0 0 WR Adam Thielen 7 83 1 WR Justin Jefferson 5 55 0 WR Chad Beebe 2 10 0 WR Olabisi Johnson 0 0 0 TE Kyle Rudolph -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TE Irv Smith 3 34 0 TE Tyler Conklin 4 40 0 FGM FGA XPM XPA PTS PK Dan Bailey 2 3 2 2 8 P/A SK INT FUM TD DT Vikings 27 4 1 1 0 PREVIOUS MATCHUP: 2019-2020 Playoffs – Wild Card Round Minnesota defeated New Orleans 26-20 (OT) at Mercedes–Benz Superdome. Kirk Cousins passed for 242-1-0 and rushed for 2-(-1)-0. Dalvin Cook compiled a 28-94-2 rushing line and a 3-36-0 receiving line (5 targets). Alexander Mattison amassed a 5-20-0 rushing line and a 1-10-0 receiving line (2 targets). Adam Thielen caught seven passes for 129 yards (9 targets). Stefon Diggs (Bills) made two grabs for 19 yards (3 targets). Olabisi Johnson hauled in two passes for 17 yards (3 targets). Kyle Rudolph logged four receptions for 31 yards and one touchdown (3 targets). NEW ORLEANS SAINTS INJURIES TO MONITOR: Michael Thomas (ankle – IR), Tre’Quan Smith (ankle – IR), Deonte Harris (neck) BYE: Week 6 The 10-4 New Orleans Saints are coming off their second straight loss, which was a tough 32-29 setback to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Saints need a victory to clinch the NFC South division crown and maintain their hold on the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed. Don’t worry about New Orleans having a letdown after the Kansas City loss. The Saints have rarely been prone to exhale games and clearly have a lot at stake in their Christmas Day matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. QUARTERBACK MATCHUP During the Chiefs game last week, it took Drew Brees a full half to shake off the rust on his way to finishing with 234 passing yards and three touchdowns strikes versus one pick. In Brees’ nine full games played, he tossed multiple touchdown passes in seven of them while averaging 235.6 passing yards per outing. We should see the super-accurate version of Brees going forward, but the absence of Michael Thomas (ankle – injured reserve) will lower his fantasy ceiling and so will a likely run-heavy game plan against a Minnesota Vikings defense with an injury-depleted linebacker corps. The Vikings have allowed the 12th-most passing yards, but heavy-volume throwing by Brees seems unlikely. RUNNING BACK MATCHUP Since Week 13, the must-start Alvin Kamara has averaged 13 touches, 68.3 combo yards and 1.0 touchdown per contest, and he has out-touched backfield wingman Latavius Murray by a count of 49 to 18. During the last month, Minnesota’s defense has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to the running back position. Last week the Vikings gave up a 32-146-2 rushing line to David Montgomery. This week the Vikings won’t have two of their top run stuffers – linebackers Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye. Expect a heavy dose of Kamara, who could set a new season high in rushing yards. Murray, however, remains a touchdown-dependent fantasy RB4 play. WIDE RECEIVER MATCHUP With Michael Thomas (ankle – injured reserve) and Tre’Quan Smith (ankle – injured reserve) both parked on the injury shelf, Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway will operate as the top-two wideouts. Sanders has been boom or bust all season, but he has cleared 70 receiving yards or scored in two straight outings. Back in Week 7, Callaway amassed a season-high eight catches for 75 yards on 10 targets against the Carolina Panthers. While he could surprise, Sanders is the only reliable option for fantasy bowl lineups. He’s a solid fantasy WR3 play versus a Minnesota defense that has coughed up the sixth-most fantasy points to the wideout position. TIGHT END MATCHUP With Thomas and eventually Smith both sidelined in the Chiefs game, Jared Cook caught just two passes for 29 yards on a surprisingly low five targets versus a Kansas City defense that had struggled against the tight end position. During the last three weeks, Cook has scored twice but failed to clear 40 receiving yards in a contest. There have been whispers that the 33-year-old Cook looks half a step slower. The Vikings have permitted the 12th-fewest tight end fantasy points during the last month, and it’s hard to trust Cook since he has cleared three receptions in a game just once in his last 12 outings. WEEK 16 PLAYER PROJECTIONS PASS PASS RUSH RUSH REC REC PLAYER REC YDS TD YDS TD YDS TD QB Drew Brees 272 2 5 0 RB Alvin Kamara 100 1 7 64 1 RB Latavius Murray 40 0 1 5 0 RB Dwayne Washington 10 0 0 0 0 WR Michael Thomas -- -- -- -- -- -- -- WR Emmanuel Sanders 6 94 1 WR Marquez Galloway 5 50 0 WR Tre’Quan Smith -- -- -- -- -- -- -- WR Jordan Humphrey 3 30 0 WR Juwan Johnson 0 0 0 WR Deonte Harris -- -- -- -- -- -- -- TE Jared Cook 4 32 0 TE Adam Trautman 1 7 0 FGM FGA XPM XPA PTS PK Wil Lutz 2 2 3 3 9 P/A SK INT FUM TD DT Saints 20 5 1 1 0 PREVIOUS MATCHUP: 2019-2020 Playoffs – Wild Card Round New Orleans lost to Minnesota 26-20 (OT) at Mercedes–Benz Stadium. Drew Brees threw for 208-1-1 and rushed for 1-5-0. Taysom Hill threw for 50-0-0, rushed for 4-50-0 and caught two passes for 25 yards and one touchdown (2 targets). Alvin Kamara compiled a 7-21-1 rushing line and an 8-34-0 receiving line (9 targets).