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Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on HFC Emissions

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Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on HFC Emissions California Air Resources Board December 15, 2017 Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on California HFC Emissions Estimates and Methodology used to Model Potential Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in California from the Global Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Phase-down Agreement of October 15, 2016, in Kigali, Rwanda (“Kigali Amendment”). Final - December 15, 2017 Written by the Research Division of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on California HFC Emissions 1 of 142 California Air Resources Board Final December 15, 2017 Acknowledgments The California Air Resources Board gratefully acknowledges the following third-party peer reviewers for their thorough review of draft versions of this methodology and their invaluable contributions to improving the methodology. Paul Ashford - Anthesis Consulting Group Pamela Cookson - ICF David Godwin - United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Jeffery Greenblatt - Independent review by individual, Staff Scientist/Engineer at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Lambert Kuijpers - Independent review by individual, Co-chair of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) Refrigeration, Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps Technical Options Committee (RTOC) Mark Wagner - ICF Helen Walter-Terrinoni - Chemours (formerly DuPont) Max Wei - Independent review by individual, Program Manager at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on California HFC Emissions 2 of 142 California Air Resources Board Final December 15, 2017 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 5 1. PURPOSE and CONTEXT ......................................................................................... 9 2. BACKGROUND.......................................................................................................... 9 Kigali Amendment Phase-down Schedule for the United States and other Developed Countries ....................................................................................................................... 11 Sources of HFC Emissions in California ........................................................................ 15 3. DERIVING EMISSION ESTIMATES ........................................................................ 16 Overview of Emission Reduction Scenarios .................................................................. 19 4. ASSUMPTIONS USED IN CARB’S KIGALI HFC PHASE-DOWN EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS MODEL ................................................................................................. 20 5. EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS SCENARIOS ............................................................... 28 SCENARIOS H1 and H2: Historical ODS Reductions Scenarios .................................. 28 Limitations of Historical ODS Data Models............................................................. 32 Scenario H1: Historical CFC Phase-out ....................................................................... 33 Scenario H2: Ongoing HCFC-22 Phase-out .................................................................. 37 Applying CFC and HCFC phase-out and phase-down reduction rates to future HFC reductions ............................................................................................................... 42 SCENARIO BC: Best-Case Reductions Scenario ......................................................... 46 SCENARIO WC: Worst-Case, Slow Transition to Low-GWP Alternatives .................... 51 6. RESULTS - Projected HFC Emissions from the Kigali Amendment Phase-down .... 57 Summary Table: Emissions in MMTCO2E as a result of the Kigali Amendment .... 58 7. CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................... 61 Appendix A: Summary of Methodology to Estimate BAU HFC Emissions in California. 67 F-gas Sectors using Complex Calculation Inputs ................................................... 73 Example of BAU emissions estimates: ................................................................... 74 Appendix B. Timeline of Class I ODS phase-out, Historical and Projected Refrigerant Trends in the U.S.; and CFC “Reductions Curve” applied to the HFC Phase-down Schedule ....................................................................................................................... 87 Historical F-Gas Emissions Reductions, CFCs and other Class I ODS compounds ..... 87 Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on California HFC Emissions 3 of 142 California Air Resources Board Final December 15, 2017 CFC “reductions curve” applied to the HFC phase-down schedule ............................... 89 Appendix C. HFC End-Use Sectors with no Likely Additional Reductions from the Kigali Amendment HFC Phase-down ...................................................................................... 93 Appendix D. Impact on Emissions from Servicing Demand and Retrofits ..................... 95 Impact of changes in refrigerant charge sizes, annual leak rates, and end-of-life refrigerant management ....................................................................................... 101 Appendix E: Example of “Worst Case” Emissions Reductions Scenario ..................... 103 Example using Residential Window AC Units ...................................................... 103 Appendix F: Further Background on the Kigali Baseline ............................................. 107 Appendix G: Additionality of HFC Emissions Reductions in California and Potential Leakage of Emissions to Out of State ......................................................................... 111 HFC Emissions Leakage from California to Out of State ............................................. 114 High leakage forcing ............................................................................................ 114 Low leakage forcing ............................................................................................. 115 Preliminary Conclusions Requiring Additional Analysis ....................................... 117 Appendix H: Supply versus Demand: Initial HFC Supply Cap is Greater than Business- as-Usual (BAU) Demand of HFCs ............................................................................... 119 The Delay between Consumption and Emissions ....................................................... 123 Appendix I: Acronym List and Glossary of Terms ....................................................... 125 Acronym List ............................................................................................................... 125 Glossary of Terms ....................................................................................................... 127 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 131 Potential Impact of the Kigali Amendment on California HFC Emissions 4 of 142 California Air Resources Board Final December 15, 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY To help reduce additional and preventable global warming, a global phase-down in the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) was agreed to by more than 150 nations on October 15, 2016 in Kigali, Rwanda. The intent of the phase-down is to reduce emissions of potent HFC greenhouse gases with a high global warming potential (GWP) and prevent up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by the end of this century. The global HFC phase-down agreement, commonly known as the “Kigali Amendment” or the “Kigali Agreement” became an amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer when it passed the 20-country ratification threshold on November 17, 2017. The phase-down goes into effect on January 1, 2019. Any country that ratifies it going forward will be bound by its HFC phase-down requirements. Countries that do not ratify the amendment will be subject to trade restrictions on HFCs (but not until January 2033). The Kigali Amendment is an historic agreement which will strengthen and support California’s own goals to reduce greenhouse gases, including HFCs. Senate Bill (SB) 1383, Lara 2016, was signed into law in September 2016, and requires the reductions of HFC emissions in California 40 percent below 2013 levels by 2030. Business-as- usual (BAU) HFC emissions in California (without an HFC phase-down) are estimated to increase to 23.1 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2E) annually by 2030; the 40 percent reduction below 2013 levels of 16.5 MMTCO2E requires emissions to be no greater than 9.9 MMTCO2E annually. CARB conducted an analysis, described in this document, to determine if the global HFC phase-down schedule of the Kigali Amendment beginning 2019 was sufficient by itself to allow California to meet its SB 1383 emissions reductions goals, without additional reduction measures nationally or in California. Existing HFC reduction measures nationally and in California were considered as part of business-as-usual and were already included in projected emissions estimates. The production and consumption schedule for developed countries, including the United States is shown below. Table ES-1. HFC Phase-down Schedule for Developed Countries. Year Production/Consumption Reductions in Cap (relative to baseline) Production/Consumption 2017-2018 None None 2019 90% 10% 2024 60% 40% 2029 30% 70% 2034 20% 80% 2036
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