Proposed Hotel Brighton
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MARKET STUDY THROUGH OCCUPANCY AND AVERAGE RATE Proposed Hotel Brighton BRIGHTON, ONTARIO SUBMITTED TO:PR OPOSED PREPARED BY: Mr. Ben Hagerman MM&R Valuation Services, Inc. Municipality of Brighton DBA: HVS Consulting & Valuation 35 Alice Street 6 Victoria Street Brighton, Ontario, K0K 1H0 Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1L4 +1 (613) 475-0670 ext. 207 +1 (416) 686-2260 July 17, 2020 July 17, 2020 Mr. Ben Hagerman Municipality of Brighton 35 Alice Street Brighton, Ontario, K0K 1H0 HVS TORONTO 6 Victoria Street Re: Proposed Hotel Brighton Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1L4 +1 (416) 686-2260 Brighton, Ontario +1 (416) 686-2264 FAX HVS Reference: 2020160028 www.hvs.com Dear Mr. Hagerman: In response to your request, we herewith submit our market study pertaining to the above-captioned property. We have inspected the subject site located on Elizabeth Street, Brighton, Ontario and analyzed the hotel market conditions in the area of Brighton, Ontario. We have made recommendations for the proposed property and the results of our fieldwork and analysis are presented in this report. Based on our findings, we recommend the proposed subject hotel to have 60 rooms and to be associated with an internationally recognized midscale/upper-midscale brand, such as a Comfort Inn, a Best Western, a Super 8, or a Park Inn. We recommend that the amenities include a breakfast dining area, an indoor swimming pool, a fitness room, business centre, a market pantry, vending areas and a guest laundry area. We recommend the proposed subject hotel to contain the appropriate parking capacity (60 surface stalls) and all the necessary back-of-the-house space. We have developed occupancy and ADR projections for the proposed midscale/upper-midscale limited-service hotel under three site scenarios in Brighton, Ontario. In Scenario 1, we assume that the subject site is located on Elizabeth Street. Scenario 2 assumes that the proposed subject hotel is located in an unspecified highway location, and Scenario 3 assumes an unspecified waterfront location. This report was produced amid significant market disruption related to COVID-19. The potential impact of the pandemic is addressed throughout the report based on market perspectives and information available on or about the effective date of the report. The prevailing market outlook is that the direct impact of the pandemic on the travel industry will be temporary, with demand being affected at varying levels through 2020. However, the situation is unprecedented and, as of the effective date of this report, remains highly uncertain. A recovery in the hospitality industry is expected to begin at some point during this summer. The extent of impact on the regional and national economies is uncertain; however, our market research indicates that there is a general expectation that recovery from any further Superior results through unrivaled economic-related downturn would span 12 to 24 months, assuming that global hospitality intelligence. Everywhere. travel activity resumes. We hereby certify that we have no undisclosed interest in the property and that our employment and compensation are not contingent upon our findings. This study is subject to the comments made throughout this report and to all assumptions and limiting conditions set forth herein. Sincerely, MM&R Valuation Services, Inc. Devisha Khanna – Hadžić, AIC Candidate Member Associate [email protected], +1 (416) 686-2260 ext. 1026 Jingjianxiong 'Charlie' Shi, AACI Director [email protected], +1 (416) 686-2260 ext. 1022 Monique Rosszell, AACI, MRICS, ISHC Senior Managing Partner, Montreal and Toronto [email protected], +1 (416) 686-2260 ext. 1023 Table of Contents SECTION TITLE PAGE 1. Executive Summary 7 Subject of the Market Study 7 Pertinent Dates 7 COVID-19 8 Ownership, Franchise, and Management Assumptions 9 Summary of Hotel Market Trends 9 Competition 11 Summary of Projected Occupancy and ADR – Three Scenarios 13 Scope of Work 18 2. Description of the Site and Neighbourhood 20 Physical Characteristics 20 Access and Visibility 24 Airport Access 24 Rail Access 25 Neighbourhood 25 Flood Zone 27 Zoning 27 Conclusion 28 3. Market Area Analysis 29 Market Area Definition 29 Provincial and National Overview 31 Demographic Review 36 Workforce Characteristics 38 Major Business and Industry 39 Unemployment Statistics 40 Employment 41 Airport Traffic 42 Building Permits 45 Major Projects 46 Travel Market Intentions 47 Tourist Attractions 51 Conclusion 53 4. Supply and Demand Analysis 54 Definition of Subject Hotel Market 54 National and Provincial Trends Overview 54 COVID-19 58 Weekly Occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR Data 58 Historical Supply and Demand Data 60 Seasonality 64 Patterns of Demand 66 Competitive Supply 70 Supply Changes 74 Supply Conclusion 74 Demand Analysis Using Market Segmentation 75 Latent Demand 78 Market-wide Accommodated Demand and Occupancy Forecast 81 5. Description of the Proposed Improvements 86 Project Overview 86 Summary of the Facilities 87 Site Improvements and Hotel Structure 88 Lobby 89 Food and Beverage Facilities 89 Meeting and Banquet Space 90 Recreational Amenities 90 Additional Amenities 90 Guestrooms 90 Environmental 91 Capital Expenditures 91 Conclusion 91 6. Projection of Occupancy and ADR – Scenario 1 92 Scenario 1 Occupancy Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 92 Scenario 1 ADR Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 95 Summary of Projections in Fiscal Years – Scenario 1 97 7. Projection of Occupancy and ADR – Scenario 2 98 Scenario 2 Occupancy Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 98 Scenario 2 ADR Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 100 Summary of Projections in Fiscal Years – Scenario 2 102 8. Projection of Occupancy and ADR – Scenario 3 103 Scenario 3 Occupancy Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 103 Scenario 3 ADR Forecast – Proposed Subject Hotel 106 Summary of Projections in Fiscal Years – Scenario 3 107 9. Statement of Assumptions and Limiting Conditions 108 10. Certification 114 Addenda Qualifications 1. Executive Summary Subject of the We have inspected the subject site located on Elizabeth Street, Brighton, Ontario Market Study and analyzed the hotel market conditions in the area of Brighton, Ontario. The subject of this market study is a 65,250-square-foot (1.50-acre) parcel that is to be improved with a limited-service lodging facility; the proposed subject hotel’s brand affiliation has yet to be determined. We have made recommendations for the proposed property and the results of our fieldwork and analysis are presented in this report. Based on our findings, we recommend the proposed subject hotel to have 60 rooms and to be associated with an internationally recognized midscale/upper-midscale brand, such as a Comfort Inn, a Best Western, a Super 8, or a Park Inn. We recommend that the amenities include a breakfast dining area, an indoor swimming pool, a fitness room, business centre, a market pantry, vending areas and a guest laundry area. We recommend the proposed subject hotel to contain the appropriate parking capacity (60 surface stalls) and all the necessary back-of-the-house space. We have developed occupancy and ADR projections for the proposed midscale/upper-midscale limited-service hotel under three site scenarios in Brighton, Ontario. In Scenario 1, we assume that the subject site is located on Elizabeth Street. Scenario 2 assumes that the proposed subject hotel is located in an unspecified highway location, and Scenario 3 assumes an unspecified waterfront location. The subject site is located on Elizabeth Street in Brighton, Ontario. In addition to this site, we analyzed the potential occupancy and rate performance of the proposed subject hotel for two other potential locations that could be developed with a midscale/upper-midscale limited-service lodging facility. One of these sites is assumed to be located on highway 401, and the other is assumed to be on the waterfront; however, no specific site has been identified aside from the site located on Elizabeth Street. The subject site located on Elizabeth Street is assumed to approximately 1.50 acres (65,250 square feet). This site needs to be severed from a larger ±18.57-acre development site. The other two potential sites are also assumed to be 1.5 acres. Pertinent Dates The effective date of this report is July 17, 2020. Jingjianxiong 'Charlie' Shi, AACI, inspected the subject site on Elizabeth Street on June 30, 2020. Jingjianxiong 'Charlie' Shi, AACI, and Devisha Khanna – Hadžić, AIC Candidate Member, participated in the research for this assignment and assisted in the preparation of July 17, 2020 Executive Summary Proposed Hotel Brighton – Brighton, Ontario 7 the report. Monique Rosszell, AACI, MRICS, ISHC, participated in the analysis and reviewed the findings but did not personally inspect the property. COVID-19 COVID-19 (a strain of coronavirus) was identified in China in December 2019 and has since become a global pandemic. At this point, the impact of the virus is being felt throughout Canada. All forms of travel have been negatively impacted. To limit the spread of the virus, the Government of Canada has closed the border to foreign visitors, including those from the US, and it is actively discouraging all non-essential travel within the country. The responses of provincial governments have varied but generally include the banning of large gatherings and the closure of schools, restaurants and bars, and casinos. Across Canada, the number of reported virus cases is now generally in decline. The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on March 11, 2020, as the disease continued to spread across the world. In response, large conferences and events have been cancelled, and companies across the country have severely restricted travel as a precautionary measure. The impact on the lodging industry has been substantial. At this time, however, we have no insight into how long restrictions on travel and large gatherings of people are likely to remain in place, although some provinces, including Ontario, started the slow process of re-opening earlier this summer.