Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

BIG SUGAR BUSH LAKE Reviewing Weather

and Lake Impact Special Report Big Sugar Bush Lake Association Becker County, Minnesota by Jimmy Olsen Spring 2016

INTRODUCTION

“The impact of climate Addressing water issues at Big Sugar Bush Lake is a core must be included in all responsibility of the Big Sugar Bush Lake Association. This evaluations of water article focuses on a review of historical weather patterns and availability in lake level elevations over the recent past and available period Minnesota. Human of records. activity aside, surface The Weather. The diverse nature of the air masses and groundwater impacting Minnesota's climate leads to a high degree of quantity is driven by variability across space (spatial variation) and time (temporal variation. the balance between atmospheric input Spatial variations affect the weather around Big Sugar Bush from precipitation, and due to its location in the continent. The impact from various continental air masses is quite varied. Winter weather is losses due to primarily driven by cold, dry continental polar air, but evapotranspiration. sometimes replaced by somewhat milder maritime polar air. Very few of the During the summer, hot and dry continental tropical air watersheds in masses from the desert southwest share predominance with Minnesota extend warm and moist maritime tropical air that originates over the beyond the borders of Gulf of Mexico. Spring and fall seasons are the result of transitions between these sources. the State. Therefore, knowledge of Temporal variations (changes over time) are addressed Minnesota's climate during the current period of record using data from the nearby Tamarac National Wildlife Refuge weather station. patterns provides The period of record utilized is 1977 through 2015. important insight into water availability Lake Levels. Water level elevation data was taken from Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) records. issues.” For Big Sugar Bush, the current published period of record is Retrieved from: May 12, 1993 through May 7, 2015. Historical changes in Minnesota DNR lake surface area are evaluated from aerial photographs. Impacts. The relationship between recorded variations in precipitation, temperature and lake levels is addressed in this report. Also analyzed are relationships between lake ice-out WHAT’S INSIDE dates and recorded variations in temperature.

3 7 18 EARLY YEARS CURRENT YEARS THE WEATHER OF 2015

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THE EARLY YEARS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

THE EARLY YEARS

“Drought What in the world was going on in those 1930’s anyway? The 1930s changed the The aerial photo below provided by Steve Odegaard shows Big Sugar Bush wasn’t always its current size. As face of many area lakes, a matter of fact, at one time, it was essentially two lakes: shrinking them into Big Sugar Bush (the bigger lake) and Lake McGee (the ponds almost little lake). unrecognizable by The following statement from the Minnesota DNR lakeshore owners who provides a premise to understanding what happened settled Big Sugar Bush during this time to so dramatically reduce the lake size: beginning mostly in the “surface and groundwater quantity is driven by the late 1960s. In Big Sugar balance between atmospheric input from precipitation, Bush, the channel of and losses due to evapotranspiration. Based on this, it water between the big should be helpful to analyze both precipitation and temperature data for relevant periods to look for patterns island and shoreline of and likely causes. the Second Subdivision, roughly the southeast Since weather data is not recorded for Tamarac NWR station prior to 1977, the weather data from the Detroit end of the lake, did not Lakes weather station was analyzed for these early years. exist. Loggers sometimes crossed this

dry channel to harvest Figure 1. Big Sugar Bush Lake – likely sometime during the 1920’s or 1930’s. Photo provided by Steve Odegaard. wood on the area now Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers archives. known as the island. This separated Big Sugar Bush into two parts, the smaller, where the Public Access now lies, forming a separate lake. Local residents called this little lake McGee Lake, named after owner of a log cabin by the shore.”

Retrieved from: Sugar bush area history, www.bigsugarbush.net

THE EARLY YEARS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

The 1930’s – Not entirely to blame. While it is stated that the 1930s changed the face of area lakes, a review of temperature and precipitation data for Detroit Lakes, shows the primary impact declined after 1936. 1929-1936: Hot and Dry. Beginning in 1929 and continuing through 1936 there were some exceptionally hot days. Also, during this same period the annual precipitation declined significantly overall. This two punch trend of hot and dry weather appears to have been the major factors in significantly reducing the size of Big Sugar Bush and surrounding lakes.

Chart 1. 1925-1936 Annual Precipitation & Hottest Day of the Year - Detroit Lakes, MN The chart shows the general trend toward dryer years from 1925 to the 1936 low of 12.35 inches of annual precipitation. More dramatic still is the trend of exceptionally hot days over topping 100°F during this period. It is also clear from the chart that 1936 was an extreme weather year.

1936 - A Year of Nationwide Extremes. The climatological summer (June-August) of 1936 was the warmest nationwide on record (since 1895) with an average temperature of 74.6°. and July of 1936 was the single warmest month ever measured with an average of 77.4°. Ironically, February of 1936 was the coldest such on record with an average nationwide temperature of 26.0°. Detroit Lakes recorded its record high of 107° F on July 7, 1936. And, true to the extremes that year, it recorded a low temperature on February 16 and 17 of -46° F.

THE EARLY YEARS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

The Great Heat Wave

June 1936. June of 1936 saw unusual heat build initially “By July [1936] the in two nodes, one centered over the Southeast and another dome of heat locked in over the Rocky Mountains and western Plains. place over the central July 1936. By July the dome of heat locked in place over and northern Great the central and northern Great Plains and remained there Plains and remained for the entire month. there for the entire Around July 8-10 the ridge briefly extended all the way to month.” the East Coast when virtually every absolute maximum temperature record was broken from Virginia to New “The Great Heat Wave of 1936; York. This held true for most sites in the Ohio Valley, Hottest Summer in U.S. on Record” By: Christopher C. Burt , July 21, Upper Midwest, and Great Plains as well. 2011, Weather Underground. A Long Hot Week in July 1936. Here are the high temps for Detroit Lakes, MN from July 7th through July 14th: 107, 101, 101, 101, 107, 104, 105, 103

Figure 2. Heat Wave of July 1936 (From: “Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book”, by Christopher C. Burt)

THE EARLY YEARS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

“In 1941, George* remembered, it 1937–1949: The Recovery. started to rain, and rain, Rain. George Rousu was basically right – it did throughout the 40s, and McGee start to rain in the 1940’s; but actually it started lake joined Big Sugar Bush to to rain significantly again beginning in 1937 with reach the familiar shape we know a good rebound of 27.71 inches that year. The it today. Because the lake downpours continued year after year through the apparently has no inlet or outlet, 40’s with 1944 setting a record at for the period of 33.57 inches followed by 1946 with 32.81 it is thought to be spring fed, and inches. This did wonders for the lake recovery, finds its level primarily based on and Lake McGee and Big Sugar Bush joined to rainfall and evaporation. In produce the lake shoreline we know today. summer 1995 it stood at its Cooler. Just as significant, the temperature fever highest level in at least 20 years.” broke, with only one year registering a 100 *George Rousu, a lifelong area resident. degree day during the 1937 through 1949 period. Retrieved from: Sugar bush area history, Also, 1942 was the lowest, high temperature www.bigsugarbush.net recorded during this period at 91° F.

Chart 2. 1937-1949 Annual Precipitation & Hottest Day of the Year - Detroit Lakes, MN

CURRENT YEARS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH

Becker County, MN

Big Sugar Bush is a 472- THE CURRENT YEARS acre, scenic lake with many A number of lake association members have been on bays and peninsulas, Big Sugar Bush since the mid to late 1970’s. These residents have been eye witnesses to most of the located in north-central weather events and lake impacts since then. The Becker County within the published period of record for nearby Tamarac National White Earth Reservation. Wildlife Refuge weather station data begins in 1977 and is fairly consistent – while there are significant gaps in Water clarity remains high recorded data for Detroit Lakes. Therefore, because of with an average secchi disk this, and Tamarac’s closer proximity to the lake, its weather data is used for this report during the “current reading of 18.4 feet and years” time frame from 1977 to present (2015). many lakeshore property Changes during this time on the land surrounding the owners have retained lake have been significant with a number of cabins and cottages constructed, additional docks, road work, etc. natural shoreline However, overall - thanks to good lot and shoreline characteristics that practices overall - the visual impact to Big Sugar Bush preserve aesthetic and lake has been limited. Also, during this period, the lake has maintained its water qualities. recovered state from the drought years of the late 20’s Minnesota DNR website and mid-30’s. Still, the current period has produced significant weather events and lake level changes.

Figure 3. Big Sugar Bush Lake in its current state.

Photo from Minnesota DNR Landview

PRECIPITATION Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

PRECIPITATION

Average Annual Precipitation Down. A review of the NOAA published record at Tamarac NWR weather station shows there are 39 years of published record from 1977 through 2015. This yielded an average annual precipitation of 20.4 inches per year for the 1977-2015 period. This is significant because it is comparable to the average recorded at Detroit Lakes (DL) during the drought years from 1925-1936 with an average annual precipitation of 20.6 inches. Further supporting the outcome that the current period of average annual precipitation is significantly below normal is a 1984 annual narrative report from Tamarac NWR that disclosed precipitation data had been maintained at Tamarac since 1950. Detailed data was not provided in Figure 4. MN Precipitation that report; however, it did state the average annual Ranking, 1993. Becker precipitation for the 1950–1984 period was 24.57 inches County hit the jackpot in 1993 (about 4.1 inches more than the 1977–2015 current period). – ranking in the top of the state This compares favorably with the Detroit Lakes (DL) in precipitation. weather station average of 24.75 inches for the extended 1895-2012 period of record. (See Appendix, Table A-2.) Greatest (and Least) Precipitation. The wettest year of the Tamarac current period record was 1993 with 34.62 The present-day inches of precipitation. The greatest single rainfall event at relative abundance of 5.71 inches also occurred in 1993. The driest year of the water is uncommon, Tamarac current period record was 2012 with only 8.37 inches of precipitation. but spells of wet weather are not Current Extremes Comparable with the Early Years. These Tamarac current period precipitation events are without precedence. significant and are comparable to DL extreme events in the Nor is it without early years. precedent for the Event Year Amount climate state to Wettest Year in Early Years: 1944 33.57 inches change rapidly between wet and dry Wettest Year in Current Years: 1993 34.62 inches regimes. Driest Year in Early Years: 1936 12.35 inches Driest Year in Current Years: 2012 8.37 inches (August 1999 report) However, while the extremes in precipitation between the Minnesota DNR website early and current periods are comparable, the patterns of precipitation during these periods were quite different.

PRECIPITATION Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

Charting the Precipitation. There are a few gaps in the Tamarac NWR record for annual precipitation data because of incomplete records of monthly data during 1977,1980 and 1985- 1987. Still, the record does show precipitation has varied significantly from year to year during the current period. Also, as mentioned, this period also shows a lower average annual precipitation influenced significantly by dry years in 1997, 2003, 2011 and 2012. These dry years were able to overshadow an extreme wet year in 1993 or 34.62 inches. The 2012 average annual precipitation of 8.37 inches is particularly low – and establishes a record that is less than the least precipitation recorded during the end of the drought years in 1936 of 12.35 inches. A Little Rebound. Rainfall has rebounded somewhat in the last few years from the 2012 low precipitation, with annual amounts of 14.41, 13.99, and 21.84 inches from 2013 through 2015.

Chart 3. Total Annual Precipitation and Greatest Observed Precipitation 1977-2015. Tamarac NWR weather station.

TEMPERATURE Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

TEMPERATURE

Mean Annual Temperatures – Up and Down. The mean (average) temperature has been ° ° up and down without a pattern or overall trend. Within a range of -36.2 F in 1979 to 43.5 F in 2012, the average mean annual temperature was an even 40°F for the 1977 to 2015 period. Highest Annual Temperatures – Steady. The highest annual temperature was recorded in 1980 and again in 1988 at 98°F. Unlike the early years, there have been no 100+ temperature days during the current years of 1977 through 2015. Lowest Annual Temperatures – Rising Some. There is a slight upward trend in the lowest annual temperatures. The lowest annual temperature recorded during the current years was -52°F during that cold winter in 1993. The warmest low annual temperature was in 2001 at -18°F. Charting the Temperature. The same gaps in the Tamarac NWR record for annual precipitation data also exist for temperature data. Chart 5 displays the temperature extremes.

Chart 4. Mean Annual Temperatures, 1977 – 2015.

TEMPERATURE Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

Chart 5. Highest Maximum and Lowest Minimum Temperatures, 1977-2015.

Interested in localized temperature The coldest temperature recorded and current conditions reporting? in Minnesota Check out the new weather since 1891 occurred on the recording station at Maplelag morning of Feb. 2, 1996. Throngs of reporters and TV Resort on Little Sugar Bush at: cameras surrounded Kathleen http://www.wunderground.com/personal- Hoppa’s thermometer in rural weather- Tower: The temperature had station/dashboard?ID=KMNCALLA2#history dropped to a bone-chilling 60 degrees below zero Maplelag Resort “Hey, How’s the Weather” by Pete Boulay. Minnesota Conservation Volunteer, July–August 2003 KMNCALLA2

SNOW Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

SNOW

The heartiest of the residents of Big Sugar Bush get to experience the wonders of winter and the joys of snow. Snow Extremes. The recent year of 2013 recorded 71.5 inches of snow – which is the “current years” record. The winters of 1979-80 and 2008- 2009 both produced over 100 inches of snow – recording 102.9 inches and 100.3 inches respectively.

Figure 5. Ken and Fran Mattson family enjoy the snow - 2015. Photo provided by Fran Mattson

Charting Snow. Chart 6 below graphs the annual snowfalls and snow depth during the current years at Tamarac NWR. The trend line is slightly upward – meaning over the period snowfall has been increasing year to year. The maximum snow depth recorded was 33 inches in 1979 (although this has not been consistently recorded).

Chart 6. Total Snowfall and Maximum Snow Depth, 1977-2015.

SNOW Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

The Importance of Snow to the Area. Not only is snow a major contributor to ground and surface water in the Sugar Bush watershed – it is also important economically. Snow is the pavement for snowmobiling and cross country skiing. These are two popular winter sports in the area. No one watches the snow forecast more closely than the proprietors and guests at Maplelag Resort on Little Sugar Bush Lake. As a premier destination cross country ski resort, Maplelag attracts recreational, and serious skiers from a wide constituency. The cross country ski trails (and summer mountain bike trails) traverse the north and western side of Little Sugar Bush and the southern side of Big Sugar Bush. One major event is the Section 8 ski race at Maplelag. The 2016 winter event had perfect weather in February as 13 girls and 14 boys teams Figure 6. Contestants ready for from northwest and central Minnesota competed for the 2016 Section 8 Nordic Ski the chance to go to the state meet. Championships.

Figure 7. Maplelag Resort Ski Trail Map Figure 8. Snow Depth 8 inches-Feb. 8, 2016

ICE Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

Table 1. Ice Out Dates ICE

There are two parameters of dates typically tracked concerning Year Ice Out Date ice and the lake. One is the date the ice cover leaves the lake, or 1993 18-Apr-1993 “ice out”, and the other is the date the ice covers over the lake, or 1994 17-Apr-1994 “ice in”. 1995 23-Apr-1995 Ice out. The Big Sugar Bush Lake Association has a good 1996 7-May-1996 record of “ice out” dates starting in 1993. As you can see from 1997 28-Apr-1997 the chart ice out dates vary considerably from year to year. The 1998 8-Apr-1998 earliest recorded ice out date was March 23, 2012; and the latest 1999 13-Apr-1999 recorded ice out date was May 10, 2013. The mean ice out date 2000 4-Apr-2000 is April 19th. 2001 27-Apr-2001 2002 14-Apr-2002 Temperature, along with wind and sun exposure to a lesser 2003 13-Apr-2003 degree, are primary drivers affecting ice out. So, for the period 2004 17-Apr-2004 of record (1993 through 2015) comparisons between ice out dates 2005 11-Apr-2005 and mean monthly temperatures for the months of March and 2006 13-Apr-2006 April were developed and graphed. The chart shows the 2007 21-Apr-2007 predictable outcomes of an inverse relationship between monthly mean temperatures and ice out dates. So it follows that the 2008 4-May-2008 earliest ice out date of 23 March 2012 corresponds to the highest 2009 23-Apr-2009 March mean temperature of 37.4° F; and the latest ice out date of 2010 2-Apr-2010 10 May 2013 corresponds to the lowest April mean temperature 2011 23-Apr-2011 of 27.4° F. See Chart 7. 2012 23-Mar-2012 2013 10-May-2013 Ice in. While “ice in” typically occurs in late November, there is 2014 27-Apr-2014 only a short published record of ice in dates for Big Sugar Bush 2015 13-Apr-2015 (however someone may be keeping an unofficial record). This past year, 2015, was a somewhat typical “ice in” on November th 27 ; however, once the lake surface did freeze over, the ice conditions were not optimal for recreational activities because of Table 2. Ice In Dates a warm December. Here is an excerpt from the Detroit Lakes newspaper in December: Year Ice In Date “Weird ice. Experts say it’s been a strange start to the ice- 1989 2-Dec-1989 making season. 1990 28-Nov-1990 “Yeah, we’ve kind of been all over the place,” said Nathan 1991 19-Nov-1991 Olson, conservation officer with the Minnesota Department of 2013 23-Nov-2013 Natural Resources, who says area lakes started out with a good 2015 27-Nov-2015 skim coat when they first froze over. Things looked great for local ice fishermen, until that base was compromised first with snow, then with rain and warm conditions. Olson says the rain melted the snow, which caused crunchy top ice, which wasn’t made any better by the wind that kicked up.”

ICE Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

Chart 7. Ice Out Dates vs. Mean Ave Temperatures for months of March and April.

November 27, 2015: “Big Sugar Bush is frozen over as of today” Bruce Nornes Facebook post

Figure 9. Kent Anderson on “Thin Ice” on Big Sugar Bush - December 2015.

LAKE LEVELS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

LAKE LEVELS “Lakeshore properties are often adversely Big Sugar Bush Lake residents are fortunate that lake affected by lake level levels do not fluctuate as widely as some area lakes. This fluctuations such as offers some stability to lake shore residents and users of flooding damage, the lake – as well as fish and wildlife. Being near the drought-related access upper reaches of the watershed, Big Sugar Bush lake problems, and levels are not as affected by stream inflows or outflows as aesthetics. Knowing some other area lakes. The official inlet is north of Bullart and understanding the Bay, and the outlet is at the juncture with Mill Pond at the history of lake levels south end of the lake. The lake levels of Big Sugar Bush can help shore land have largely been allowed to flow unimpeded by human owners and others who action – except for a few instances of beaver dam use the lake to accept clearing. Given this, much of the lake level fluctuations and cope with the on the lake can be attributed to localized precipitation. natural fluctuations of a The published period of record for lake surface elevations lake. The levels of all is from 1993 to 2015. An official gage is maintained by lakes fluctuate, the Minnesota DNR and is located near the Zitzow primarily in response to residence in the northeast part of the lake. Dr. Zitzow changes in precipitation routinely reads and reports lake level gage information to (rain and snow). the Minnesota DNR. Although lake level As we know from previous articles in Big Sugar Bush fluctuations in Notes, from the short history on the web site, and from Minnesota recollections of eye witnesses, that Big Sugar Bush Lake are typically 1 foot to 2 water levels have been much lower in the distant, and not feet per year, historical so distant, past. In fact, the earliest published lake fluctuations exceeding elevation is the lowest recent lake elevation at: 1489.07 ft. 10 vertical feet have above mean sea level (msl). That is about 2.8 feet lower been recorded. than the ordinary high water (OHW) mark of 1491.8 ft. Fluctuations can also above msl. The highest water level elevation was result from human recorded on July 6, 1998 at 1493.83 ft. above msl. That is activities such as the 2 feet above the OHW mark. So even in our relatively construction or short recent record from 1993 to 2015, and on a lake with operation of a dam or relatively few contributors to lake level variations, there from acts of nature has been a variance of 4.8 feet between high and low lake such as beaver levels. activity.” As mentioned earlier, it is assumed that most of the lake level fluctuations on Big Sugar Bush are attributable to Retrieved from: Minnesota DNR Website changes in precipitation. Therefore, to see, if there is in fact a correlation, an analysis was made to compare and chart yearly lake level elevations vs. precipitation for the period of record (see Chart 8 below).

LAKE LEVELS Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

Chart 8. Lake Levels vs. Yearly Precipitation.

1993 – 2002: High Lake Levels. As highlighted in the chart, overall there is a direct correlation between yearly precipitation and lake levels. The biggest impact to lake level elevations occurred in 1993 – the wettest year of our documented record at 34.62 inches. From that year the lake level rose dramatically up to its highest recorded lake elevation in 1998. The impact of that year, helped to maintain higher than normal lake elevations through 2002 – even with some years of lesser precipitation.

2003 -2004: Dip in Lake Levels. Below normal yearly precipitation of only 13.2 inches resulted in a significant lower of lake levels during these two years.

2005 – 2010 Normalized Lake Elevations. From 2005 through 2010, lake levels remained within a relatively consistent 1.5 foot band between 1490 and 1491.5 ft. above msl. This was also a period of consistent yearly precipitation averaging about 23 inches per year with a range from 20.8 to 25.5 inches of yearly precipitation.

2011 – 2015 Lower Lake Levels. The four years from 2011 through 2014 was a period of below average precipitation and included the driest year of record at 8.37 inches. This impacted lake elevations significantly. The normal precipitation of 2015 did produce some rebound in the lake level.

2015 WEATHER Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

“If the 2015 Summer seemed unusually pleasant, that’s because it was!

Meteorological summer (June through August) ended with no major heat waves, little in the way of consistently unbearable humidity, and precipitation that was well-timed and well-proportioned. Indeed, it was a relatively comfortable, inoffensive summer.”

Retrieved from: Minnesota DNR Website

Figure 10. “Golden Canoes” at sunset 2015. Photo provided by Vicki Lindsay

The summer of 2015 was indeed a splendid season – a time when all the human senses could be heighted while enjoying the best of nature and the great outdoors. There was a lot to be thankful for during the summer of 2015.

However, like all things in time, the summer of 2015 was followed by another fall and winter. A season when the residents of Big Sugar Bush experienced the ending season of life for two cherished friends: Dave Gunderson and Donna Voxland. This report is dedicated to them.

2015 WEATHER Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

THE MINNESOTA WEATHER OF 2015

Here are the results of voting for the top five weather events of 2015 from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. #1 2nd Warmest Autumn Statewide Second warmest September-November in Minnesota back to 1895. Average statewide temperature was 49.5 degrees or 6.3 degrees above normal. It fell just short of the autumn of 1963 which was 49.7 degrees or 6.5 degrees above normal. #2 The Glorious Summer of 2015 Sometimes the weather just brings pleasant conditions, which is what happened for a good part of the summer of 2015. There was a dearth of 90 degree temperatures (only four compared to the average of 13). Prolonged dew point episodes were more or less kept in check, and days were pleasant enough to have the summer of 2015 finish the third glorious on record. #3 The Non-Winter of 2015 (Warm December 2015) If December were to end on the 28th, it would be the second warmest December in the Twin Cities at 31.4 degrees. Temperatures have also failed to drop to or below the zero mark in the Twin Cities. As a result there has been a delay in ice freeze-up on lakes #4 Straight Line Winds Wreak Havoc in the Brainerd Lakes Area: July 12, 2015

The most damaging severe storm event of the year came in the form of a line of severe thunderstorms that brought winds from 70 to 95 mph in an area just south of Wadena eastward to the Pillsbury State Forest where winds were in excess of 100mph in places. #5 Smoky Skies: July 6, 2015 One of the more bizarre candidates originated from Canada in the form of smoke. There were smoky skies at various times in the summer of 2015, with the thickest smoke observed on July 6, 2015. Visibilities were reduced to a mile and a quarter in St. Cloud and two-and-a-half miles in the Twin Cities. The scent of smoke was in the air and a pall hung over the metro. All courtesy of a cold front bringing smoke from fires in Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba over 1,000 miles away.

Figure 11. “Rainbow Sunset” -

2015

Photo provided by Vicki Lindsay.

PULLING IT ALL TOGETHER Reviewing Weather and Lake Impact BIG SUGAR BUSH Becker County, MN

THE EARLY YEARS Longtime residents of the Big Sugar Bush Lake area gave witness to a much different lake topography than (1925-1949) exists in the present day with two separate lake areas named Lake McGee and Big Sugar Bush. While this was attributed to the drought of the 1930’s, a closer 1925-1936 examination shows the main impact was the hot and dry spell beginning around 1925 and lasting through 1936. THE HEAT WAVE OF 1936 The hottest and driest year being 1936. Conditions improved dramatically starting in 1937 and lasting 1937-1949 through the 1940’s with cooler temperatures and greater precipitation – replenishing ground and surface water – and Big Sugar Bush reformed to one lake.

With the lot development of Big Sugar Bush in the THE CURRENT YEARS 1970’s Big Sugar Bush Lake added a number of lake (1977-2015) shore residents. Many of these residents have been eye witnesses to weather events and lake impacts since then. Tamarac NWR weather station data captured some PRECIPITATION interesting data, which – when displayed against other parameters gives significant insight to the causes of ice TEMPERATURE out, ice in, and lake level fluctuations on the lake. Also noted are extremes in precipitation and temperature that SNOW are comparable to the extremes in the early years. ICE Snowfall has vacillated over the years with a record snowfall of 71.5 inches in 2013. Ice out dates have been th LAKE LEVELS up and down with an average date of April 19 . Lake level changes during these “current years” show at least four different periods of lake level stages varying from high to normal to low.

2015 WEATHER Given the dramatic changes in weather than have been experienced over the years, it was with some good fortune that 2015 was considered a fine weather year – with the summer of 2015 being “unusually pleasant”. BIG SUGAR BUSH REFLECTIONS Reflecting on the glorious summer of 2015 was especially meaningful, recognizing the loss of two cherished residents of the lake: Dave Gunderson and Donna Voxland.

Still, all was not tame during 2015 throughout the State MINNESOTA WEATHER OF of Minnesota – as some different weather events included smoky skies, straight line winds near Brainerd, 2015 Minnesota and a warm fall and December.