Korea Tyre Sector
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x Consumer Discretionary / Korea 26 November 2012 Initiation: setting the wheels in Korea Tyre Sector motion Positive (initiation) Heightened earnings visibility for 2013E on stronger demand and Neutral stabilising raw-material prices could drive up share prices Negative Companies look poised for long-term earnings growth on price competitiveness and product mix improvements Recent share-price corrections provide a good entry point How do we justify our view? Korean tyre makers‟ price Buy (1) rating and six-month target competitiveness (versus global price of KRW57,000 (31% upside major brands) should continue to potential). help their earnings growth and market-share expansion going We initiate coverage of Nexen Tire Jun Yong Bang forward. We are equally optimistic (Nexen) with an Outperform (2) (82) 2 787 9168 about a further improvement in rating and six-month target price of [email protected] their product mix, with the revenue KRW19,000 (15% upside potential). proportion of ultra-high- We are more positive on Nexen‟s Sung Yop Chung performance tyres (UHPT) longer-term earnings-growth (82) 2 787 9157 [email protected] increasing through the companies‟ outlook, underpinned by its capacity rising market presence globally. expansion plan in China and Korea. ■ Investment case Despite market concerns about the However, we favour Hankook Tire We believe the recent correction in recent removal of US tariffs on over Nexen, due to: 1) Hankook Tire‟s the Korean tyre makers‟ share prices Chinese tyre exports and KRW more appealing valuation, and 2) its provides a good investment appreciation against the USD, we more defensive business profile opportunity over the next six believe the different pricing points versus Nexen‟s, which is more months, as we envisage heightened for Chinese and Korean tyre makers vulnerable to possible headwinds, earnings visibility for the tyre and the fact that Korean tyre makers such as more competition from makers in 2013 on stronger demand are largely naturally hedged for the Chinese tyre makers. and stabilising raw-material prices. USD suggest that the impact may Over the long term, we think their not be as severe as some in the ■ Risks value proposition and a further market anticipate. Key risks include weaker-than- improvement in their product mix expected shipment volume in 2013 could move the Korean tyre makers ■ Valuation and more intense competition from up the value ladder within the global Due to the abovementioned Chinese imported tyres after the tyre industry context. concerns, the Korea Tyre Sector has lifting of tariffs in the US. underperformed the KOSPI by 11% ■ Catalysts over the past two months. However, Despite market concerns about we believe the recent correction, potential softness in unit shipments which has led to the sector now and rising competition in the tyre trading at its past-7-year trough PER industry, we expect solid tyre of 7.4x for 2013E, provides a good Key stock calls demand overall, backed by a recovery entry point ahead of the more New Prev. in US tyre shipments, to lead to solid favourable earnings outlook we see Hankook Tire (161390 KS) earnings growth for the Korean tyre for 2013 on stronger demand and Rating Buy stabilising raw-material prices. Target 57,000 makers in 2013. In our view, US Upside 31.3% replacement tyre demand is near an Hankook Tire is our top pick, for Nexen Tire (002350 KS) inflection point, where pent-up Rating Outperform demand, accumulated during the what we regard as its solid earnings Target 19,000 outlook and high value proposition. Upside 15.2% economic slowdown, should lead a recovery in global tyre demand. Applying a target 2013E PBR of Source: Daiwa forecasts. 1.85x, we initiate coverage with a See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 40 Korea Tyre Sector 26 November 2012 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Positive (initiation) Earnings revisions Neutral Negative US replacement equipment (RE) shipments vs. monthly vehicle Growth outlook miles of travel Contrary to some concerns in the market about a 20% 1.5% potentially softening demand outlook in the near term, 1.0% 10% we believe Korean tyre makers‟ shipments in 2013 will 0.5% be supported by demand for replacement equipment in 0% 0.0% the US, which seems to have neared an inflection point. -0.5% -10% -1.0% -1.5% Backed by a recovery in demand, Korean tyre makers -20% should generate a steady operating-profit CAGR of 16% -2.0% -30% -2.5% 08 09 10 11 12 08 09 10 11 12 08 09 10 11 for 2012-14, based on our forecasts. 12 08 09 10 11 12 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan US RE shipments (YoY) (LHS) Monthly vehicle-miles of travel (12M Avg, YoY) Source: Various sources including Federal Highway Administration and RMA Korea Tyre Sector valuation: PBR-ROE time series (2005-2012E) Valuation The Korea Tyre Sector is trading currently at a 2013E PBR (x) 2.5 PER of 7.4x, near the low-end of its past-7-year multiple (stripping out the period of the global financial crisis), 2.0 even based on what we consider to be our conservative ASP forecasts. 1.5 Using a PBR-ROE valuation methodology, whose target 1.0 multiples we derive from our Gordon Growth Model, we y = 0.0365x + 1.0514 R² = 0.5144 apply a 2013E PBR of 1.85x for Hankook Tire and 0.5 obtain a six-month target price of KRW57,000 (31% ROE (%) upside potential from its current share price). We assign 0.0 a 2013E PBR of 2.1x for Nexen and obtain a six-month (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 target price of KRW19,000 (15% upside potential). Source: Companies, Bloomberg, compiled by Daiwa Bloomberg consensus EPS revision trend (2013E) Earnings revisions The Korea Tyre Sector has undergone downward 130% earnings-forecast revisions by the Bloomberg consensus 120% in recent months, due we believe to concerns about: 1) 110% the softening demand outlook, 2) the repeal of the US tariffs on Chinese-made tyres, and 3) the appreciation of 100% the KRW against the USD. 90% 80% As we believe the negative earnings impact from the 70% abovementioned headwinds is largely discounted, Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 further substantial cuts to the consensus forecasts look Michelin Goodyear Bridgestone unlikely going forward. Sumitomo Chengshin Cooper Nexen Source: Bloomberg Note: consensus EPS data for Hankook Tire is not available due to its spin-off from its holding company in August 2012 - 2 - Korea Tyre Sector 26 November 2012 Contents Valuation looks attractive ............................................................................................................ 4 US replacement demand nearing the inflection point ................................................................ 7 Well-positioned in the industry ................................................................................................. 10 Raw materials: price stabilisation should continue ................................................................... 12 Shifting to high-end products .................................................................................................... 14 Foreign-exchange impact may not be so great .......................................................................... 17 Company Section Hankook Tire .......................................................................................................................... 19 Nexen Tire .............................................................................................................................. 29 - 3 - Korea Tyre Sector 26 November 2012 Bloomberg EPS consensus revision trend (2013E) 130% 120% 110% 100% Valuation looks 90% attractive 80% 70% Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 After the recent correction, we believe Michelin Goodyear Bridgestone Sumitomo Chengshin Cooper current share prices offer an attractive Nexen entry point. Source: Bloomberg Note: consensus EPS data for Hankook Tire is not available due to its spin-off from its holding company in August 2012 Share-price performance We believe the recent correction is excessive and that the concerns have been overdone, given our view that: Led by investors‟ looming concerns about softening 1) tyre shipments in the developed markets are tyre shipment volume in developed markets, Korean reaching an inflection point, and 2) the earnings tyre makers‟ share prices have fallen by more than 11% impact of some of the aforementioned negatives could since October 2012. We also believe concerns about the be less severe than many have feared. appreciating KRW and removal of US tariffs on Chinese tyre exports have weighed negatively on share Based on our earnings forecasts, which incorporate prices. what we consider as very conservative ASP forecasts (due to Daiwa‟s forecast for the KRW to appreciate Global tyre makers: share price performance (since Oct 2012) further, vs. the USD for end-2012 and 2013), Korean Cooper Tire 26% tyre makers‟ current valuations suggest to us that they Bridgestone 12% offer an attractive entry point with comfortable support Michelin 5% for the downside risks. Based on our EPS forecasts, Sumitomo Rubber 5% Hankook Tire is trading currently at a 2013E PER of Yokohama Rubber 1% 6.9x, 1SD below its past-7-year average PER, while Continenal 1% Nexen is near its low-mid cycle PER. Pirelli -5% CSR -6% Korea Tyre Sector: trading below its historical average PER Goodyear -7% (x) Hankook Tire