Israel's Next Northern War: Operational and Legal Challenges
Israel’s Next Northern War: Operational and Legal Challenges JINSA’s Gemunder Center Hybrid Warfare Task Force October 2018 DISCLAIMER The findings and recommendations contained in this publication are solely those of the authors. Task Force and Staff Members General Gilmary M. Hostage, USAF (ret.) Former Commander, Air Combat Command Lieutenant General Richard Natonski, USMC (ret.) Former Commander, U.S. Marine Corps Forces Command Lieutenant General Michael S. Tucker, USA (ret.) Former Commanding General, First United States Army Colonel Marc Warren, USA (ret.) Former Senior Staff Judge Advocate for Coalition Forces in Iraq Lieutenant Colonel Geoffrey Corn, USA (ret.) Presidential Research Professor of Law, South Texas College of Law, Houston Gemunder Center Staff Michael Makovsky, PhD President & CEO Jonathan Ruhe Associate Director Ari Cicurel Policy Analyst Harry Hoshovsky Policy Analyst Table of Contents I. Executive Summary 7 II. Introduction 15 III. Reality and Perception: LOAC and IDF Doctrine 18 A. How Does International Law Regulate War? 1. Jus ad Bellum 2. Jus in Bello B. IDF LOAC Protections C. Israel’s Strategic Communications Challenges IV. Losing the Battle, Winning the War: Israel's Adversaries Weaponize the Law 28 A. Weaponizing the Law B. Second Lebanon War C. 2014 Gaza Conflict D. Implications: Turning Defeat into Delegitimization V. Hezbollah's Ascendance 36 A. Strategic Context and Flashpoints 1. Hezbollah: Iran’s Primary Terrorist Proxy 2. Failures of UNSCR 1701 3. Hezbollah’s Growing Power in Lebanon 4. Iran Transforms Hezbollah into Unprecedented Threat 5. Escalating Tensions in Syria and Beyond B. Hezbollah’s Capabilities and Strategy 1. Increasingly Large, Accurate and Lethal Missile Arsenal 2.
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