By Farish A. Noor (Der Autor Ist Gegenwärtig Tätig Beim Zentrum Für Moderne Orientstudien in Berlin)
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Malaysia’s 2004 Federal Elections: What went wrong? By Farish A. Noor (Der Autor ist gegenwärtig tätig beim Zentrum für Moderne Orientstudien in Berlin). Malaysia’s eleventh Federal Elections took place on 21 March 2004, and the results were both surprising and not at all. Following the shortest campaign period in Malaysian history – seven and a half days – and due in part of the ruling parties’ near-total monopoly of the mainstream media and governmental apparatus, the results were a landslide victory for the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition led by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party. The biggest shock of all came when it was announced that the Pan-Malaysian Islamic party (PAS) lost control of the state of Trengganu in the north of the Malay Peninsula. Trengganu had been won by PAS at the 1999 elections, when it was widely thought that PAS had successfully exploited the popular anger and frustration of the Malaysian public over the 1997-98 economic and financial crises and the 1998 ‘Anwar Ibrahim affair’ which saw the erstwhile Deputy Prime Minister Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim removed from office and subsequently detained, put on trial and imprisoned over charges of corruption, abuse of power and sexual misconduct. The Anwar saga proved to be the nail in the coffin as it provided the catalyst for street demonstrations and protests in the capital Kuala Lumpur and other major cities, something Malaysians had not witnessed since the late 1960s. It also proved to be the biggest blow to the credibility and reputation of the country’s Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, who was blamed by Anwar himself to be part of the ‘high-level conspiracy’ to overthrow him and to maintain the status quo. As a result of these crises, Malaysian politics experienced a radical shift and the opposition in the country was given an added boost. Contrary to the wildest expectations, PAS came to the fore as the spokesman for Malay anger and disquiet, and at the elections of 1999 PAS scored its most impressive victory in its history: The tenth Federal Elections were held on 29 November 1999. The pre-election campaign was a hotly contested shambles and much of the negotiations within Barisan Alternatif opposition coalition took place behind closed doors. Newly formed Keadilan suffered the most, not being able to get the constituencies it wanted and many of its more popular leaders were given the toughest constituencies to contest. However, voter turnout was quite high by Malaysian standards: an increase of 6.1% was recorded. (The increase would have been even higher — 13.7% — if the 680,000 new voters who registered before 1999 had been included in the electoral roll.) When the results were announced, Malaysia was rocked by the biggest election upset in its history. PAS had swept to power in the northern states of Kelantan and Terengganu, and had also come close to taking control of Kedah. It had also made significant gains in the predominantly Malay-Muslim states of Perlis, Perak and Pahang. All in all, PAS won 27 parliamentary seats and 98 state assembly seats. Its parliamentary gains were significant: 10 in Kelantan, eight in Kedah, seven in Terengganu and two in Perak. The state assembly results were even more impressive: 41 in Kelantan, 28 in Terengganu, 12 in Kedah, six in Pahang, four in Selangor, three in Perak, three in Perlis and one in Penang. Newly formed Keadilan won four state assembly seats, while UMNO won 176. Keadilan also won five parliamentary seats, making a total of 32 Malay opposition seats compared to UMNO’s 61. Among the PAS leaders who won their parliamentary seats were Tuan Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat (Kelantan), Tuan Guru Hadi Awang and Mustafa Ali in Terengganu, Ustaz Fadzil Noor, Ustaz Nashruddin Mat Isa, Mahfuz Omar and Mohamad Sabu in Kedah. PAS’s new members had also made a significant impact: Shahnon Ahmad won his seat in Kedah, Kamaruddin Jaffar won his seat in Terengganu, while Dr. Hassan Ali won his state assembly seat in Selangor and Chinese convert Anuar Tan won the state assembly seat for Kota Bharu in Kelantan. UMNO’s losses were considerable; in nearly all the constituencies where Malays made up more than 90% of the voters, UMNO was defeated. Among the UMNO heavyweights who lost were Dr. Ibrahim Saad (defeated by Keadilan president Dr. Wan Azizah Wan Ismail at Pematang Pauh), Datuk Fuad Hassan (defeated by Keadilan leader Azmin Ali) and Datuk Annuar Musa (defeated by Ustaz Muhammad Mustafa). Worse still were the losses suffered by key UMNO leaders such as Dato’ Mustafa Muhammad, Dato’ Megat Junid and Dato’ Dr. Hamid Othman, the Prime Minister’s advisor on religious affairs. The majorities of UMNO leaders who won had also been significantly reduced. The majority for Dato’ Rafidah Aziz, Trade and Industry Minister, was reduced from 10,649 to 2,774. Dato’ Seri Najib Razak’s majority dropped from 10,793 to a paltry 241, while the Prime Minister’s own majority declined from 17,226 to 10,138. The verdict was clear: UMNO had lost the support of the Malay-Muslims. For the first time, UMNO held fewer than half the BN coalition’s parliamentary seats (72 out of 148). The intervening years however have proven to be fateful ones: Following the 11 September 2001 attacks on America, the resurgence of US power abroad has been accompanied by the systematic demonisation of Islamist parties and movements worldwide. In 2002, during the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, PAS’s religious leaders committed the fateful error of showing their support for the Taliban – which in turn was exploited to the full by their opponents and critics. The mistake was grave in terms of its consequences: PAS was shunned by foreign embassies and the non- Muslims alike, and in time a host of self-proclaimed ‘anti-terror experts’ began making wild (and untrue) associations between PAS and the Taliban, al-Qaeda and other alleged militant groups in Southeast Asia. During this period the Mahathir administration also worked hard to get back in Washington’s good books and Malaysia was soon regarded as a ‘model Muslim’ state in the West, that was a necessary ally in the so-called ‘war on terror’. The upturn in relations between Kuala Lumpur and Washington was signalled by renewed foreign investment and increased investor confidence in Malaysia. By 2003 Malaysia’s economy was again seen as being on the road to recovery and the piecemeal reform measures initiated after the 1997-98 economic crisis were swiftly abandoned. Another major event which determined the course of Malaysian politics was the near- simultaneous announcement of Dr. Mahathir’s resignation and the death of PAS president Fadzil Noor that happened in late 2002. With Dr. Mahathir gone, the bugbear of the opposition and reformists was no longer on the scene. This allowed UMNO to reposition itself under the new leadership of Dato Abdullah Ahmad Badawi – an ex-bureaucrat and descendant of a family of Islamic scholars who was seen as the ‘Mr Clean’ of UMNO. PAS in turn came under the leadership of Ustaz Hadi Awang, whose own image since the 1980s has been that of a fiery orator and confrontational politician. While this may have boosted the morale of many PAS members, it also added to the negative image of PAS in the media. It was under these circumstances that Malaysians once again went to the polls on 21 March 2004. With an economy making a comeback and the Malaysian population (particularly the business community and foreign investors) keen to ensure continuity, the country voted for the same rather than for change. The results of the elections show to the reversal of PAS’s fortunes and the recovery of UMNO’s: Overall the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition won 198 out of 219 Parliamentary seats and 451 out of 505 State Assembly seats. PAS in turn managed to win only 8 Parliamentary and 36 State Assembly seats. In its homebase of Kelantan – where PAS has been in power since 1959 (except for a brief lull in the 1980s) – PAS managed to win only six Parliamentary seats and 24 State Assembly seats, giving it the smallest majority in the state assembly. In neighbouring Trengganu PAS lost every single Parliamentary seat it contested and won only 4 our of 32 State Assembly seats. PAS’s ally Keadilan lost practically all the Parliamentary and State Assembly seats it contested, winning only one Parliamentary seat in Pematang Pauh, Penang. The only winners among the opposition was the predominantly- Chinese leftist DAP party, which managed to win 12 Parliamentary and 15 State Assembly seats in all. To add insult to injury, PAS was so over-confident of victory that a few days before the election its President Ustaz Hadi Awang even proclaimed that PAS was ‘willing to share power’ with UMNO in the case of an overwhelming PAS victory and that UMNO’s days in power were over. The net results of the elections will leave both UMNO and PAS with problems that it will have to deal with forcefully and openly: UMNO has been given a mandate to push ahead with its modernist development-oriented agenda, but the last time it was given such a mandate (in the 1980s) the net result was two decades of corruption, abuse of power and centralisation of power in the hands of the executive. While it cannot be denied that Malaysia has experienced rapid development over the past two decades, this development has also come at the cost of fundamental liberties and public freedoms.