Social Preferences and Competition
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A Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions∗
A Quantitative Theory of Political Transitions∗ Lukas Buchheimy Robert Ulbrichtz August 28, 2019 Abstract We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the beliefs of disenfranchised citizens play a key role in determining revolutionary pressure, which in interaction with preemptive reforms determine regime dynamics. We study the quantitative implications of the model by fitting it to data on the universe of political regimes existing between 1946 and 2010. The estimated model generates a process of political transitions that looks remarkably close to the data, replicating the empirical shape of transition hazards, the frequency of revolts relative to reforms, the distribution of newly established regime types after revolts and reforms, and the unconditional distribution over regime types. Keywords: Democratic reforms, quantitative political economy, regime dynamics, revolts, transition hazards. JEL Classification: D74, D78, P16. ∗This paper supersedes an earlier working paper titled \Dynamics of Political Systems." We would like to thank the managing editor, Mich`eleTertilt, four anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Toke Aidt, Matthias Doepke, Christian Hellwig, Johannes Maier, Uwe Sunde, and various seminar and conference participants for valuable comments and suggestions. yLMU Munich, Schackstr 4/IV, 80539 Munich, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]. zBoston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467. E-mail: [email protected]. 1 Introduction This paper develops a quantitative theory of political transitions based on the evolution of beliefs regarding the regime's strength. Traditionally, the literature has focused on explaining specific patterns of regime changes, focusing on isolated transition episodes.1 In this paper, we shift the focus to a macro perspective, aiming to account for a number of stylized facts in a unified framework. -
Prof. Dr. Armin Falk Biographical Sketch 1998 Phd, University Of
Prof. Dr. Armin Falk Biographical Sketch 1998 PhD, University of Zurich 1998 - 2003 Assistant professor, University of Zurich 2003 - 2005 Lecturer, Central European University (Budapest) 2003 - today Research Director, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) 2003 - today Professor of Economics, University of Bonn Affiliations with CESifo, CEPR Research Interests Labor Economics, Behavioral and experimental economics Selected Journal Publications “Fairness Perceptions and Reservation Wages - The Behavioral Effects of Minimum Wage Laws” (with Ernst Fehr and Christian Zehnder), Quarterly Journal of Economic, forthcoming. “Distrust - The Hidden Cost of Control” (with Michael Kosfeld), American Economic Review, forthcoming. “Clean Evidence on Peer Effects” (with Andrea Ichino), Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming. “A Theory of Reciprocity” (with Urs Fischbacher), Games and Economic Behavior 54 (2), 2006, 293-315. “Driving Forces Behind Informal Sanctions” (with Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher), Econometrica 73 (6), 2005, 2017-2030. “The Success of Job Applications: A New Approach to Program Evaluation” (with Rafael Lalive and Josef Zweimüller), Labour Economics 12 (6), 2005, 739-748. “Choosing the Joneses: Endogenous Goals and Reference Standards” (with Markus Knell), Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106 (3), 2004, 417-435. “Relational Contracts and the Nature of Market Interactions” (with Martin Brown and Ernst Fehr), Econometrica 72, 2004, 747-780. “On the Nature of Fair Behavior” (with Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher), Economic Inquiry 41(1), 2003, 20-26. “Reasons for Conflict - Lessons From Bargaining Experiments” (with Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher), Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics 159 (1), 2003, 171-187. “Why Labour Market Experiments?” (with Ernst Fehr), Labour Economics 10, 2003, 399-406. -
Armin Falk IZA and University of Bonn April 2004
I. Introduction Armin Falk IZA and University of Bonn April 2004 Falk: Behavioral Labor Economics: Psychology of Incentives 1/18 This course • Study behavioral effects for labor related outcomes • Empirical studies •Overview – Introduction – Psychology of incentives • Reciprocity and contract enforcement • Dysfunctional effects of explicit incentives • Peer effects • Loss aversion, collusion and sabotage in the presence of tournament incentives – Labor supply – Market behavior • Monopsony and minimum wages • Fairness, efficiency wages and wage rigidities • Incomplete contracts, fairness and the functioning of markets Falk: Behavioral Labor Economics: Psychology of Incentives 2/18 Requirements 1. Take part in the lecture 2. Write a short paper • Either about a summary and discussion of 3 papers • List of topics and papers will be provided • Papers, which are not discussed in this course • Or about a labor economics experiment, which you design, conduct and analyze • Motivation, design, results, discussion • Few observations sufficient • Can also be a field experiment, a theoretical model or the analysis of an existing data set • You can see me and David Huffman to discuss your suggestions Falk: Behavioral Labor Economics: Psychology of Incentives 3/18 Information • Slides can be downloaded – www.iza.org/home/falk • Readers available at IZA Falk: Behavioral Labor Economics: Psychology of Incentives 4/18 Behavioral Economics: From the Nobel Prize laudation “Traditionally, economic theory has relied on the assumption of a "homo œconomicus", whose behavior is governed by self-interest and who is capable of rational decision-making. Economics has also been regarded as a non-experimental science, where researchers – as in astronomy or meteorology – have had to rely exclusively on field data, that is, direct observations of the real world. -
Why Social Preferences Matter – the Impact of Non-Selfish Motives on Competition, Cooperation and Incentives Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher
Institute for Empirical Research in Economics University of Zurich Working Paper Series ISSN 1424-0459 forthcoming in: Economic Journal 2002 Working Paper No. 84 Why Social Preferences Matter – The Impact of Non-Selfish Motives on Competition, Cooperation and Incentives Ernst Fehr and Urs Fischbacher January 2002 Why Social Preferences Matter - The Impact of Non-Selfish Motives on Competition, Cooperation and Incentives Ernst Fehra) University of Zurich, CESifo and CEPR Urs Fischbacherb) University of Zürich Frank Hahn Lecture Annual Conference of the Royal Economic Society 2001 Forthcoming in: Economic Journal 2002 Abstract: A substantial number of people exhibit social preferences, which means they are not solely motivated by material self-interest but also care positively or negatively for the material payoffs of relevant reference agents. We show empirically that economists fail to understand fundamental economic questions when they disregard social preferences, in particular, that without taking social preferences into account, it is not possible to understand adequately (i) the effects of competition on market outcomes, (ii) laws governing cooperation and collective action, (iii) effects and the determinants of material incentives, (iv) which contracts and property rights arrangements are optimal, and (v) important forces shaping social norms and market failures. a) Ernst Fehr, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich, Bluemlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland, email: [email protected]. b) Urs Fischbacher, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich, Bluemlisalpstrasse 10, CH-8006 Zurich, Switzerland, email: [email protected]. Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 The Nature of Social Preferences 2 2.1 Positive and Negative Reciprocity: Two Examples …............... -
Social Preferences Or Sacred Values? Theory and Evidence of Deontological Motivations
SOCIAL PREFERENCES OR SACRED VALUES? THEORY AND EVIDENCE OF DEONTOLOGICAL MOTIVATIONS Daniel L. Chen and Martin Schonger∗ Abstract Recent advances in economic theory, largely motivated by ex- perimental findings, have led to the adoption of models of human behavior where decision-makers not only take into consideration their own payoff but also others’ payoffs and any potential consequences of these payoffs. Investi- gations of deontological motivations, where decision-makers make their choice not only based on the consequences of a decision but also the decision per se have been rare. We provide a formal interpretation of major moral philosophies and a revealed preference method to distinguish the presence of deontological motivations from a purely consequentialist decision-maker whose preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance. JEL Codes: D63; D64; D91; K00 Keywords: Consequentialism, deontological motivations, normative com- mitments, social preferences, revealed preference, decision theory, random lot- tery incentive method ∗Daniel L. Chen, [email protected], Toulouse School of Economics, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, University of Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France; Martin Schonger, [email protected], ETH Zurich, Law and Economics. First draft: May 2009. Current draft: January 2020. Latest version available at: http://users.nber.org/∼dlchen/papers/Social_Preferences_or_Sacred_Values.pdf. We thank research assistants and numerous colleagues at several universities and conferences. This project was conducted while Chen received fund- ing from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (Grant No. 2018-11245), European Research Council (Grant No. 614708), Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 100018-152678 and 106014-150820), Ewing Marion Kauffman Foun- dation, Institute for Humane Studies, John M. -
Kranton Duke University
The Devil is in the Details – Implications of Samuel Bowles’ The Moral Economy for economics and policy research October 13 2017 Rachel Kranton Duke University The Moral Economy by Samuel Bowles should be required reading by all graduate students in economics. Indeed, all economists should buy a copy and read it. The book is a stunning, critical discussion of the interplay between economic incentives and preferences. It challenges basic premises of economic theory and questions policy recommendations based on these theories. The book proposes the path forward: designing policy that combines incentives and moral appeals. And, therefore, like such as book should, The Moral Economy leaves us with much work to do. The Moral Economy concerns individual choices and economic policy, particularly microeconomic policies with goals to enhance the collective good. The book takes aim at laws, policies, and business practices that are based on the classic Homo economicus model of individual choice. The book first argues in great detail that policies that follow from the Homo economicus paradigm can backfire. While most economists would now recognize that people are not purely selfish and self-interested, The Moral Economy goes one step further. Incentives can amplify the selfishness of individuals. People might act in more self-interested ways in a system based on incentives and rewards than they would in the absence of such inducements. The Moral Economy warns economists to be especially wary of incentives because social norms, like norms of trust and honesty, are critical to economic activity. The danger is not only of incentives backfiring in a single instance; monetary incentives can generally erode ethical and moral codes and social motivations people can have towards each other. -
Public Goods Agreements with Other-Regarding Preferences
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES PUBLIC GOODS AGREEMENTS WITH OTHER-REGARDING PREFERENCES Charles D. Kolstad Working Paper 17017 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17017 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2011 Department of Economics and Bren School, University of California, Santa Barbara; Resources for the Future; and NBER. Comments from Werner Güth, Kaj Thomsson and Philipp Wichardt and discussions with Gary Charness and Michael Finus have been appreciated. Outstanding research assistance from Trevor O’Grady and Adam Wright is gratefully acknowledged. Funding from the University of California Center for Energy and Environmental Economics (UCE3) is also acknowledged and appreciated. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2011 by Charles D. Kolstad. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Public Goods Agreements with Other-Regarding Preferences Charles D. Kolstad NBER Working Paper No. 17017 May 2011, Revised June 2012 JEL No. D03,H4,H41,Q5 ABSTRACT Why cooperation occurs when noncooperation appears to be individually rational has been an issue in economics for at least a half century. In the 1960’s and 1970’s the context was cooperation in the prisoner’s dilemma game; in the 1980’s concern shifted to voluntary provision of public goods; in the 1990’s, the literature on coalition formation for public goods provision emerged, in the context of coalitions to provide transboundary pollution abatement. -
Patience and Comparative Development*
Patience and Comparative Development* Thomas Dohmen Benjamin Enke Armin Falk David Huffman Uwe Sunde May 29, 2018 Abstract This paper studies the role of heterogeneity in patience for comparative devel- opment. The empirical analysis is based on a simple OLG model in which patience drives the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, productivity improve- ments, and hence income. Based on a globally representative dataset on patience in 76 countries, we study the implications of the model through a combination of reduced-form estimations and simulations. In the data, patience is strongly corre- lated with income levels, income growth, and the accumulation of physical capital, human capital, and productivity. These relationships hold across countries, sub- national regions, and individuals. In the reduced-form analyses, the quantitative magnitude of the relationship between patience and income strongly increases in the level of aggregation. A simple parameterized version of the model generates comparable aggregation effects as a result of production complementarities and equilibrium effects, and illustrates that variation in preference endowments can account for a considerable part of the observed variation in per capita income. JEL classification: D03, D90, O10, O30, O40. Keywords: Patience; comparative development; factor accumulation. *Armin Falk acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council through ERC # 209214. Dohmen, Falk: University of Bonn, Department of Economics; [email protected], [email protected]. Enke: Harvard University, Department of Economics; [email protected]. Huffman: University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics; huff[email protected]. Sunde: University of Munich, Department of Economics; [email protected]. 1 Introduction A long stream of research in development accounting has documented that both pro- duction factors and productivity play an important role in explaining cross-country income differences (Hall and Jones, 1999; Caselli, 2005; Hsieh and Klenow, 2010). -
Preferences Under Pressure
Eric Skoog Preferences Under Pressure Conflict, Threat Cues and Willingness to Compromise Dissertation presented at Uppsala University to be publicly examined in Zootissalen, EBC, Villavägen 9, Uppsala, Friday, 13 March 2020 at 10:15 for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. The examination will be conducted in English. Faculty examiner: Associate Professor Thomas Zeitzoff (American University, School of Public Affairs). Abstract Skoog, E. 2020. Preferences Under Pressure. Conflict, Threat Cues and Willingness to Compromise. Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research 121. 66 pp. Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research. ISBN 978-91-506-2805-0. Understanding how preferences are formed is a key question in the social sciences. The ability of agents to interact with each other is a prerequisite for well-functioning societies. Nevertheless, the process whereby the preferences of agents in conflict are formed have often been black boxed, and the literature on the effects of armed conflict on individuals reveals a great variation in terms of outcomes. Sometimes, individuals are willing to cooperate and interact even with former enemies, while sometimes, we see outright refusal to cooperate or interact at all. In this dissertation, I look at the role of threat in driving some of these divergent results. Armed conflict is rife with physical threats to life, limb and property, and there has been much research pointing to the impact of threat on preferences, attitudes and behavior. Research in the field of evolutionary psychology has revealed that threat is not a singular category, but a nuanced phenomenon, where different types of threat may lead to different responses. -
The Appearance of Homo Rivalis: Social Preferences and the Nature of Rent Seeking
Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics Discussion Paper Series ISSN 1749-3293 CeDEx Discussion Paper No. 2008–10 The Appearance of Homo Rivalis: Social Preferences and the Nature of Rent Seeking Benedikt Herrmann and Henrik Orzen August 2008 The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics was founded in 2000, and is based in the School of Economics at the University of Nottingham. The focus for the Centre is research into individual and strategic decision-making using a combination of theoretical and experimental methods. On the theory side, members of the Centre investigate individual choice under uncertainty, cooperative and non-cooperative game theory, as well as theories of psychology, bounded rationality and evolutionary game theory. Members of the Centre have applied experimental methods in the fields of Public Economics, Individual Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, Strategic Interaction, and the performance of auctions, markets and other economic institutions. Much of the Centre's research involves collaborative projects with researchers from other departments in the UK and overseas. Please visit http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/cedex/ for more information about the Centre or contact Karina Whitehead Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD Tel: +44 (0) 115 95 15620 Fax: +44 (0) 115 95 14159 [email protected] The full list of CeDEx Discussion Papers is available at http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/cedex/papers/index.html The appearance of homo rivalis: Social preferences and the nature of rent seeking by Benedikt Herrmann and Henrik Orzen University of Nottingham August 2008 Abstract While numerous experiments demonstrate how pro-sociality can influence economic decision-making, evidence on explicitly anti-social economic behavior has thus far been limited. -
Walrasian Economics in Retrospect
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Bowles, Samuel; Gintis, Herbert Working Paper Walrasian Economics in Retrospect Working Paper, No. 2000-04 Provided in Cooperation with: Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Suggested Citation: Bowles, Samuel; Gintis, Herbert (2000) : Walrasian Economics in Retrospect, Working Paper, No. 2000-04, University of Massachusetts, Department of Economics, Amherst, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105719 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu WALRASIAN ECONOMICS IN RETROSPECT∗ Department of Economics University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts, 01003 Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis February 4, 2000 Abstract Two basic tenets of the Walrasian model, behavior based on self-interested exogenous preferences and complete and costless contracting have recently come under critical scrutiny. -
Estimating Social Preferences Using Stated Satisfaction: Novel Support for Inequity Aversion
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 14347 Estimating Social Preferences Using Stated Satisfaction: Novel Support for Inequity Aversion Lina Diaz Daniel Houser John Ifcher Homa Zarghamee APRIL 2021 DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES IZA DP No. 14347 Estimating Social Preferences Using Stated Satisfaction: Novel Support for Inequity Aversion Lina Diaz John Ifcher George Mason University Santa Clara University and IZA Daniel Houser Homa Zarghamee George Mason University Barnard College APRIL 2021 Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA. Research published in this series may include views on policy, but IZA takes no institutional policy positions. The IZA research network is committed to the IZA Guiding Principles of Research Integrity. The IZA Institute of Labor Economics is an independent economic research institute that conducts research in labor economics and offers evidence-based policy advice on labor market issues. Supported by the Deutsche Post Foundation, IZA runs the world’s largest network of economists, whose research aims to provide answers to the global labor market challenges of our time. Our key objective is to build bridges between academic research, policymakers and society. IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. ISSN: 2365-9793 IZA – Institute of Labor Economics Schaumburg-Lippe-Straße 5–9 Phone: +49-228-3894-0 53113 Bonn, Germany Email: [email protected] www.iza.org IZA DP No. 14347 APRIL 2021 ABSTRACT Estimating Social Preferences Using Stated Satisfaction: Novel Support for Inequity Aversion In this paper, we use stated satisfaction to estimate social preferences: subjects report their satisfaction with payment-profiles that hold their own payment constant while varying another subject’s payment.