Report on Smoking Prevalence in Canada, 1985 to 1999
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Report on Smoking Prevalence in Canada, 1985 to 1999 by Jason Gilmore Also available on the Internet Analyst, Health Statistics Division under product number 82F0077XIE Statistics Canada Data in many forms Statistics Canada disseminates data in a variety of forms. In addition to publications, both standard and special tabulations are offered. Data are available on the Internet, compact disc, diskette, computer printouts, microfiche and microfilm, and magnetic tape. Maps and other geographic reference materials are available for some types of data. Direct online access to aggregated information is possible through CANSIM, Statistics Canada’s machine-readable database and retrieval system. 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To this end, the Agency has developed standards of service that its employees observe in serving clients. To obtain a copy of these service standards, please contact your nearest Statistics Canada Regional Reference Centre. Statistics Canada Health Statistics Division Report on Smoking Prevalence in Canada, 1985 to 1999 by Jason Gilmore Analyst, Health Statistics Division Statistics Canada Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2000 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without prior written permission from Licence Services, Marketing Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0T6. January 2000 Catalogue no. 82F0077XIE Ottawa Note of Appreciation The author would like to thank his colleagues in the Health Statistics Division for their feedback and comments during the course of writing the report. Special thanks go out to the methodologists in the Household Surveys Methodology Division for their work and guidance. How to obtain information: Inquiries about this report should be directed to Jason Gilmore, Marketing, Planning and Product Services Section, Health Statistics Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6; telephone (613) 951-7118; Email: [email protected] Citation recommendation: Gilmore, J. Report on Smoking Prevalence in Canada, 1985 to 1999 (Statistics Canada, Catalogue 82F0077XIE) 2000. Aussi disponible en français 3 Table of Contents Highlights.................................................... 4 Transition data: 1994/95 to 1996/97 ........ 25 Transitions in smoking status, adults (aged 20+) .................. 25 Overview ..................................................... 5 Transitions in smoking status, by sex.................................... 25 Transitions in smoking status, youth (aged 15 to 19) ............ 25 Survey Comparability: Methodology and Questions Asked ................................... 6 Overall conclusions ................................. 27 Surveys conducted by Statistics Canada from 1985 APPENDIX A: Quick Reference of Survey to 1999 that contained questions about smoking 6 (1985 to 1999) Comparability .............. 29 General Social Survey, 1985.................................... 6 National Alcohol and Drugs Survey, 1989 ................ 7 APPENDIX B: Recommended core to- Health Promotion Survey, 1990................................ 7 bacco use questions ........................... 30 General Social Survey, 1991.................................... 7 The Canadian Alcohol and Drugs Survey, 1994....... 8 APPENDIX C: Interpretation of Results.. 31 The Survey on Smoking in Canada, 1994/95........... 8 Interpretation of results (determining statistically General Social Survey, 1995.................................... 8 significant differences) ...................................... 31 General Social Survey, 1996.................................... 9 Proxy reporting in surveys on smoking .................. 32 National Population Health Survey, 1994/95 and Inclusion of "not stated" category in calculations ... 32 1996/97 ............................................................... 9 Multiple comparisons ............................................. 33 Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey, 1999 .. 10 Survey Estimates ..................................... 11 Some statistical definitions ..................................... 11 Results: Current smokers, 1985 to 1999 ................ 12 Overall changes in current smoking prevalence ................... 12 Changes in current smoking prevalence, by sex ................... 13 Changes in current smoking prevalence, by age group ........ 15 Changes in current smoking prevalence of youths aged 15 to 19, by province/region ....................................................... 15 Results: Daily smokers, 1985 to 1999 .................... 17 Overall changes in daily smoking prevalence ....................... 17 Changes in daily smoking prevalence, by sex ...................... 17 Changes in daily smoking prevalence, by age group ............ 18 Changes in daily smoking prevalence of youths aged 15 to 19, by province/region ............................................................. 21 Results: Non-daily (occasional) smokers, 1985 to 1999 .................................................................. 21 Overall changes in non-daily (occasional) smoking prevalence .. 21 Changes in non-daily (occasional) smoking prevalence, by sex.. 21 Changes in non-daily (occasional) smoking prevalence, by age group .................................................................................2 2 Changes in non-daily (occasional) smoking prevalence for youth aged 15 to 19, by province and region ..................... 24 Report on Smoking Prevalence in Canada, 1985 to 1999 Statistics Canada, Catalogue 82F0077 4 Highlights This report examines the trends in smoking prevalence in Canada from 1985 to 1999 by determining the statistical significance of data from comparable surveys on smoking conducted by Statistics Canada over this time period. This report, the first in a series, analyzes both the end-points and the intervening time periods to assess the statistical significance and magnitude of any changes in smoking prevalence. For example: • Current smoking prevalence among Canadians aged 15 and older significantly declined by 10.3 percentage points from 1985 to 1999. However, the statistical error associated with this decline indicates the decrease likely fell between 7.9 and 12.6 percentage points, where the value '10.3' is just the midpoint in this error range. About two-fifths of this overall decline occurred between 1985 and 1991, and the remainder occurred after 1994. Although some analytical highlights follow, details of statistical significance and error ranges are found in the main body of this paper. • Although current smoking prevalence among men aged 15 and older experienced a larger overall decrease than that of women between 1985 and 1999, current smoking prevalence remains higher for men (26.8% for men versus 22.9% for women in 1999). Similar results held when comparing daily smoking prevalence of men and women over the same time period. • There was a significant and large increase (6.5 percentage points) in current smoking prevalence for 15- to 19-year-olds between 1991 and January 1, 1994. Since 1994, there has been no significant change in current smoking prevalence of youth. • Over the 15 year period, current smoking prevalence of Canadians aged 45 to 64 dropped by 14.7 percentage points (35.5% to 20.8%). About two-fifths of the decline happened between 1985 and 1991 and another two-fifths of the decline occurred between 1996/97 and the first half of 1999. • About 10% of adults who smoked daily in 1994/95 quit by 1996/97. A full 6% of the people classified as former smokers in 1994/95 resumed smoking in 1996/97 (3% occasionally and 3% daily), and 2% of adults who did not smoke in 1994/95 started smoking in 1996/97. • While almost 800,000 adults who were daily smokers in 1994/95 were no longer classified as such in 1996/97, almost 600,000 adults who were occasional, former or never-smokers in 1994/95 became daily smokers by 1996/97. • Adults who smoke occasionally (about one million Canadians in 1994/95) were one of the most volatile of all smoking status groups. By 1996/97, 28% had become daily smokers, 32% remained occasional smokers and 38% became non-smokers. • Switching status was concentrated among youth. Of the 244,000 young people who smoked daily in 1994/95 and were between the ages of 15 and 19 in 1996/97, 79% remained daily smokers. Of the 166,000 young people who smoked occasionally in 1994/95, 59% were smoking every day by 1996/97, compared with the corresponding adult rate of 28%.