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Older Workers: Trends and Prospects

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Older Workers: Trends and Prospects The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Vol. 27 No. 4 (October 2002) 512–533 Older Workers: Trends and Prospects by Philip Taylor, Sol Encel and Masato Okaà 1. Introduction This article focuses on policy developments towards older workers and on age and employment in Australia, Japan and the United Kingdom. Each country is in the process of developing a range of policies in this area, although approaches differ somewhat. The article examines these approaches and identifies the lessons that can be learned for policy-makers elsewhere. 2. Population aging in the case countries As a result of declining or stable fertility rates and an increase in life expectancy the populations of the case countries are set to age markedly over the next 50 years. Table 1 shows fertility rates and life expectancy at birth in the case countries between 1980 and 2000. Fertility rates fell between 1980 and 2000, and markedly so in Japan. Among the countries Japan also has the longest life expectancy at birth. Table 2 reports the proportion of the population of the case countries between 1980 and 2050 aged over 60 and 65. This shows that each country is set to age markedly over the next 50 years. Japan will have the most aged population, with over one-third of its population aged over 60 or over 65 by 2050. Table 1: Fertility rates and life expectancy Life expectancy Fertility rates Men Women 1980–1985 1995–2000 1980–1985 1995–2000 1980–1985 1995–2000 Australia 1.9 1.8 71.9 75.5 78.7 81.1 Japan 1.8 1.4 74.2 76.8 79.7 82.9 U.K. 1.8 1.7 71.0 74.5 77.2 79.8 Source: World Labour Report 2000, ILO. à Philip Taylor, University of Cambridge; Sol Encel, University of New South Wales; and Masato Oka, Yokohama City University. # 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK. OLDER WORKERS: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Table 2: Population aged over 60 and 65 Population over 60 (% total pop.) Population over 65 (% total pop.) # 1980 2000 2010 2030 2050 1980 2000 2010 2030 2050 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. Australia 13.7 16.2 19.2 26.1 28.4 9.6 12.1 13.4 20.0 22.6 Japan 12.9 23.1 29.3 34.2 37.6 9.0 17.1 21.5 27.3 31.8 U.K. 20.1 21.0 23.5 30.0 31.3 15.1 16.0 17.1 23.1 24.9 Source: World Labour Report 2000, ILO. 513 514 TAYLOR, ENCEL AND OKA 3. The labour market and older workers This section of the article discusses trends in labour force participation, employment and unemployment rates among the case countries. Table 3 shows trends in labour force participation rates among men and women between 1979 and 2000. This shows that since 1979, in Australia and the U.K., there has been a marked decline in labour force participation rates among older men. In Japan there has been a slight decline, but from a high level. There is evidence that this decline in participation has reversed slightly in Australia and the U.K. This is not the case for Japan. Table 3 also shows that labour force participation among older women is increasing. However, as with men, it shows that participation rates in Australia and the U.K. are some way behind that of Japan, although catching up. It should be noted that early exit has been both a male and a female phenomenon. For example, between 1960 and 1995 the average retirement age of men and women in Australia fell by approximately four and five years respectively, approximately one year in Japan for both men and women and four years for men and three for women in the U.K. (Auer and Fortuny, 2000). The decline in labour force participation among those aged 55 and over has been attributed to a number of economic, political and social factors. Older people have tended to be over-represented in declining industries and under-represented in industries experiencing growth and thus to be affected by a reduced demand for unskilled workers (Jacobs, Kohli and Rein, 1991; Trinder, 1990). During periods of economic expansion and contraction, when labour demands have grown and receded respectively, the labour force participation of older people has fluctuated accordingly. There is evidence that the age structure of the employed work force changes during a recession. As employers cut back on recruitment it is younger workers who are predominantly affected (Lindley, Wilson and Villagomez, 1991), but if an employer has to shed staff it is older workers who are affected disproportionately (Leppel and Heller Clain, 1995). 4. Older workers’ employment Table 4 shows trends in employment/population ratios between 1979 and 2000 among men and women aged 55–64. Regarding men, Australia experienced sharp increases in employment/population ratios between 1995 and 2000, albeit to levels far below those seen in 1979. Similarly, regarding women, Australia has experienced marked increases in employ- ment/population ratios since 1995. In the U.K. the increases have been more modest and in Japan there was a slight decline from 1995 to 2000 among older men while the picture for women was static. 5. Unemployment and long-term unemployment Table 5 presents unemployment rates among men and women aged 55–64 between 1979 and 2000. It is notable that unemployment rates among older men and women in Japan increased markedly between 1995 and 2000 and exceeded those of the other case countries. Table 6 shows that long-term unemployment in the year 2000 was significantly higher among those aged 55 or over than among other age groups. The incidence of male long-term unemployment was lower in Japan than Australia and the U.K., whereas the U.K. had the lowest rate of female long-term unemployment. # 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. OLDER WORKERS: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Table 3: Labour force participation rates among men and women aged 55–64 between 1979 and 2000 Men Women # 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. Australia 69.5 62.0 63.2 60.8 61.5 20.3 20.5 24.9 28.6 36.3 U.K. – 71.5 68.1 62.4 63.3 – – 38.7 40.8 42.6 Japan 85.2 84.7 83.3 84.8 84.1 45.4 46.1 47.2 48.5 49.7 Source: OECD Employment Outlook (various). 515 # 516 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. Table 4: Employment/population ratios among men and women aged 55–64 between 1979 and 2000 Men Women 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 Australia 67.4 59.6 59.2 55.3 61.5 19.8 19.9 24.2 27.4 35.4 U.K. – 64.3 62.4 56.1 59.8 – – 36.7 39.3 41.4 Japan 81.5 80.5 80.4 80.8 78.4 44.8 45.1 46.5 47.5 47.8 Source: OECD Employment Outlook (various). TAYLOR, ENCEL AND OKA OLDER WORKERS: TRENDS AND PROSPECTS Table 5: Unemployment rates among men and women aged 55–64 between 1979 and 2000 Men Women # 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 1979 1983 1990 1995 2000 2002 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics. Australia 3.1 3.8 6.3 9.0 4.9 2.3 2.9 3.0 4.0 2.4 U.K. – 10.1 8.4 10.1 5.5 – – 5.0 3.7 2.8 Japan 4.4 5.0 3.4 4.7 6.8 1.2 2.1 1.4 2.1 3.6 Source: OECD Employment Outlook (various). 517 518 TAYLOR, ENCEL AND OKA Table 6: Incidence of long-term unemployment in 2000 among men and women in different age groups (per cent) Men Women 15–24 25–54 55 plus 15–24 25–54 55-plus Australia 17.8 36.6 45.5 16.0 28.3 56.0 Japan 26.3 29.4 35.6 14.8 13.8 37.5 U.K. 17.4 40.3 46.1 9.9 22.9 30.5 Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics database. 6. Public policies towards older workers Among the case countries there is an increasing emphasis on extending working life. There have been several drivers of this: demographic change, concerns about the future viability of pension systems, current or predicted skills and labour shortages, labour force trends, a general shift from passive to active employment policies, and a growing recognition of the problem of age discrimination in the labour market. A detailed discussion of trends among the case countries is presented in the following sections. 7. Australia 7.1 Concern with mature-age unemployment Mature-age unemployment represents a significant social cost to the community, particularly because it tends to persist over long periods. Although unemployment rates among young people are higher, their duration is much less and the discrepancy has increased steadily in the past 25 years. By comparison, people who lose their jobs in their 50s may never find employment again. Government policy in Australia has long treated mature-age unemployment as a minor issue. Attention has been focused much more strongly on youth unemployment. In this regard, governments largely reflect public opinion, where the conventional wisdom appears to be that the exit of older people from the workforce will provide opportunities for younger people.
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