bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.293134; this version posted September 13, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-ND 4.0 International license. 1 Vulnerability of Elevation-Restricted Endemic Birds of the Cordillera de Talamanca 2 (Costa Rica and Panama) to Climate Change 3 4 Zhen Liu1, Luis Sandoval2, Lauren Sherman1, Andrew Wilson1* 5 1 Gettysburg College, 300 North Washington Street, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, USA 6 2 Escuela de Biología, Ciudad Universitaria Rodrígo Facio, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, 7 Costa Rica 8 9 *corresponding author,
[email protected] 10 11 ABSTRACT 12 Animals endemic to tropical mountains are known to be especially vulnerable to climate change. 13 The Cordillera de Talamanca (Costa Rica and Panama) is a geographically isolated mountain 14 chain and global biodiversity hotspot, home to more than 50 endemic bird species. We used 15 eBird community science observations to predict the distributions of a suite of 48 of these 16 endemic birds in 2006-2015, and in 2070, under four climate change scenarios. Species 17 distributions were predicted using program Maxent, incorporating elevation, satellite derived 18 habitat data, and WorldClim climate variables. Model fit, as assessed by Area under the Receiver 19 Operator Curve (AUC) was very high for most species, ranging from 0.877 to 0.992 (mean of 20 0.94). We found that most species are predicted to undergo range contractions by 2070, with a 21 mean of 15% under modest climate change (RCP 2.6) up to a mean of 40% under more severe 22 climate change (RCP 8.5).