Did COVID-19 cost Trump the election? James Lake∗ and Jun Niey Southern Methodist University This draft: January 18, 2021 First draft: December 1, 2020 Abstract A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not nd supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we nd sub- stantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Aordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this eect, our estimates imply Trump would been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wis- consin by a few thousand votes. Finally, while US trade war taris boosted Trump's support, foreign trade war taris and US agricultural subsidies had little eect. JEL: D72, F13, F14, I18 Keywords: 2020 US Presidential election, COVID-19, Aordable Care Act, health insurance coverage, trade war, political economy, trade policy ∗Corresponding author e-mail:
[email protected]. We would like to thank Dan Millimet and Klaus Desmet for helpful discussion and comments. yAuthor e-mail:
[email protected] 1 Introduction The 2020 US Presidential election is one of the most controversial in modern history. A sizable minority of US voters questioned the widely acknowledged results amid suspicions over widespread voter fraud, resulting in pro-Trump supporters storming the Capitol during congressional certication of Joe Biden's victory. Additionally, many far-reaching policies and actions of the Trump administration were plausibly salient in voters' minds. Thus, understanding voting behavior in this election is fundamentally important.