The historical record shows that faith & life matters decline is a negative phenomenon. It stifles `...the greatest economic and social challenge facing cultural creativity arid causes the rate of increase in demand for goods and services Australia is the continuing fall in our fertility rate... to fall and thus it reduces economic Due to our ageing population and lack of young opportunity. Demographic decline places a heavy burden on the young who have to people entering the workforce, government support an ever-growing proportion of spending, especially for health and pharmaceuticals, dependent elderly. With the increased pressure it places on pension funds, would reach un-sustainable levels.' demographic decline in developed countries will threaten nation-wide and tax- financed pay-as-you-go pension programs. Towards a Solution: The In affirming marriage and the value of Up to now, the working assumption in Rediscovery of Fundamental Values children as gifts, we must simultaneously Western nations was that superannuation Many factors have contributed to our reject contraceptive practices as morally funds built up by the baby-boomers during demographic problems in Western evil. their working lives would finance their countries. Amongst these is a loss of living costs during retirement. However, as fundamental values relating to the One final point. In much of the public Japan and other Western countries are meaning and purpose of marriage. This debate regarding problems associated now experiencing, the safety and aspect of the problem is borne out in with Australia's fertility decline, there tends sufficiency of these funds is far from comments made by the Australian to be a heavy focus on the need to raise guaranteed. Statistician in 1997, when in reference fertility levels in order to provide the to fertility levels and changing attitudes economy with more producers and In Australia, the Retirement Income to marriage, he said: consumers. While this is not without Modelling Taskforce (RIM) within the significance, it frequently seems to be Australian Treasury has estimated that "Increasing levels of control over fertility based, however, on a reductionist view of about 75 per cent of those who over the with the introduction of the birth control the dignity and value of the human person. next 20 years or so enter the retirement pill in 1961 helped to provide young people As this debate intensifies, let us never lose age group will still be eligible for either a with more lifestyle choices...Couples were sight of the most fundamental truth that full or part pension. Coupled with this, a reappraising the importance and relevance should inspire our reflection upon it, i.e. treasury report released with the Federal of marriage during the 1970s. This resulted that the human person is "the only creature Budget in May 2002 warned that the from the reduced influence of religion on on earth that God has willed for its own greatest economic and social challenge young Australians, rising divorce rates that sake."15 facing Australia is the continuing fall in undermined the idealism of marriage, and our fertility rate. Entitled 'Inter- the sexual revolution of the 1960s and ' The London Tines, 5September 1989. generational Report 2002-03', this report 1970s that helped to separate sexuality ' Cf, The Economist, May 4, 2002. estimated that due to our ageing from marriage. In more recent years, the IIRPD, Executive Summary, p. 2.. population and lack of young people number of couples who chose to postpone `Amartya yen, Development As Freedom, Anchor Books, entering the workforce, government or reject the tradition of marriage in favour NewYork, 2000, p.165 spending, especially for health and of a de facto relationship has risen. By 1992, IIRPD, p.3 pharmaceuticals, would reach un- more than half (56%) of all couples who ' Theodore Panayotou, 11RPD Report, Background Paper sustainable levels. married in that year had cohabited before No. 7, and the Environment, p. 40. their current marriage, compared to 16% 'Julian Simon, The State of Humanity, Blackwell Publishers, In the United States, the stock market in 1975." Massachusetts, 1995, p.7 losses in mid-2002 combined with 'Julian Simon, : Revised Edition, structural problems in the U.S. pension To reverse the present trends in fertility 1996, Princeton University Press. system are creating a retirement crisis. decline, it will be necessary to adopt 9 Professor , The of Life, McGraw- Reporting on this, the front page economic and social policies that are family Hill, New York, 1997, p. 288. headline of the July 29, 2002 edition of friendly in that they support married 1° Press Release by UN Population Division (Dev/2234 Pop/ Time magazine read; "Will you ever be couples who choose to have a relatively 735, 17 March 20001 able to retire? With stocks plummeting large number of children and who " Chris Richardson, Population Policy or Perish, Australian and corporations in disarray, boomers' recognise that fulltime motherhood is a Business Review Weekly, February 7-13, 2002. finances are in peril." One article went vocation, the nobility of which is second to 12 Australian Social Trends 1997, Australian Bureau of on to state that with eroding pension none. Coupled with this, we need to Statistics, 1997, Cat. No. 4102.0, p. 28 benefits and the ageing population, reaffirm the truth that the family based on 13 Vatican ii, Gaudium et Spes n. 24; Catechism of the "most Americans will have to work well marriage as an indissoluble bond between Catholic Church, rt. 356. into their 70s." a man and a woman is the basis of society. Eamonn Keane is married with five children. He is a high school teacher in CATHOLIC Sydney and President of the Population ADULT EDUCATION CENTRE SYDNEY INfORM and Environment Research Institute of faith&life matters Australia. He has authored several Published five times a year, INFORM is available from: books including: Population and Catholic Adult Education Centre, Sydney Locked Bag 888 Silverwater DC NSW 1811 Development (1994), Humanae Vitae: Tel: (02) 9643 3660 Fax: (02) 9643 3669 Email: [email protected] Wisdom For All Ages (1998), The Brave New World of Therapeutic Cloning Published with ecclesiastical approval. ©2003, Catholic Adult Education Centre, Sydney. (2001), and A Generation Betrayed Most people think the world faces a mounting problem of over- EDITOR: Fr John Flader LAYOUT & DESIGN: Annette Loughlin-Smith (2002). population, which will lead inevitably to a shortage of food and resources as well as to environmental disaster. Eamonn Keane Alternatives -- Fclucotion INFORM GClg per copy {minimum order; 10 copiesY. Single subscription is only avai Newsletter of the Catholic fIBRUARY 2003 COntre: $27 pm War, 5 issues. Single heck issue of INFORM in print; $40 per se °Copying Prohibited. explains in this article that the real problem is quite different.

he January 1, 2000 Millennium most fire; but later, the critics were reference to population growth and food social change or trend, point in the positive Edition of the New York Times listed accepting his estimates as the basis for supply, the Executive Summary of the direction, as long as we view the matter "The enormous expansion in the global T "over-population" as "one of the rational discussion."' IIRPD said: "Experts are cautiously over a reasonably long period of time."' myths of the twentieth century." optimistic that it will be possible to feed 9- He pointed out that the key factor in world Another pioneer of the revisionist position 12 billion people adequately on a is the human capacity production of goods and services... has Population and Development was Lord Peter Bauer of the London School sustainable basis."3 In this regard, it is for the creation of new ideas and the allowed the world to sustain both much larger The myth of 'overpopulation' has a long of Economics. In 2002 he was awarded the worth noting that Amartya Sen, winner of expansion of knowledge. He argued that history, stretching back to ancient Greece. Prize "for the the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1998, has the more people who live on the planet and vastly higher standards of In its modern form, it can be traced to an advancement of " but he died argued convincingly that famines in the and who can be trained to help solve essay entitled The Principle of Population suddenly at the age of 85 before he could Third World are not caused by actual food economic and environmental problems, living than ever before in history..." written by Anglican clergyman Thomas receive it. He believed that worries about shortages but by institutional failure. For the faster we can grow economically and Malthus in 1798. Unaware of the population growth reflected a patronising example, he has demonstrated that the the greater will be the economic agricultural and technological revolution view that poor people were incapable of Bangladesh famine of 1974 "occurred in a inheritance we will pass on to succeeding increase having occurred since 1950. Rapid The final reference above to apparently then taking place, Malthus contended that making responsible choices about their year of greater food availability per head generations .8 growth was triggered by dramatic ever-expanding planetary per capita Britain with its then population of 10 million family size. He stated that the so-called than in any other year between 1971 and reductions in mortality, especially in less resource supply, while it may seem was dangerously overpopulated. Predicting "population explosion" of the twentieth 1976." Another scholar who has drawn attention developed regions. The average life incredible to some, is in fact old knowledge. that food supply could not keep up with century "should be seen as a blessing to "human capital" as a most important expectancy at birth in those regions For example, in his great social justice population growth, Malthus argued that rather than a disaster, because it stems As for the relationship between population factor in the process of economic increased by over 20 years during the encyclical Mater et Magistra (1961), Blessed plague, war, and famine would act as from a fall in mortality, a prima facie growth and the environment, the IIRPD development is Professor Gary Becker who second half of the century..." p.10) Pope John XXIII said: "Truth to tell, the checks on population growth to bring it improvement in people's welfare." In Executive Summary said: "The effects of won the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. In interrelationships on a global scale back into harmony with the so-called arguing that there is no correlation between population growth on the environment are his 1997 book The Economics of Life, • "The enormous expansion in the global between the number of births and available 'carrying capacity' of the planet. population growth and poverty, Bauer cited not unequivocally positive or negative".5 Professor Becker pointed out that in production of goods and services driven resources are such that we can infer grave the example of the Western world where, After stating that that population growth developing countries nutrition has greatly by technological and social and economic difficulties in this matter do not arise at Whilst Malthusian ideas became well since the mid-181" century, population has and rising density "need not lead to improved in recent decades and that on a changes has allowed the world to sustain present, nor will in the immediate future" ingrained in Western culture during the more than quadrupled but real income per resource depletion and environmental global scale "food is cheaper and more both much larger populations and vastly (n. 188). Blessed Pope John added that God twentieth century, nevertheless from the head has increased by an even greater degradation," Theodore Panayotou of abundant despite fewer acres in the world higher standards of living than ever before "in His goodness and wisdom" has 1960s onwards, economic opinion began amount.2 Harvard Institute for International devoted to farming." He related this to in history..." (p.12) "provided nature with almost to shift gradually to a position where Development, who wrote Inquiry "rapid technological progress in agriculture inexhaustible productive capacity," and that population growth was seen as having a A most exhaustive study of the relationship Background Paper No. 7 of the IIRPD, went and in the extraction of energy resources." • "In recent years, development efforts he "has endowed man with such ingenuity long term positive impact on development. between population growth and on to add: He also noted that the reason why have shifted from the traditional focus on that, by using suitable means, he can apply Adherents of this position are known as development was carried out by the developing nations have experienced per capita income to a greater stress on nature's resources to the needs and revisionists. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in the "The relationship between population and relatively high population growth in recent improvements in health, education and requirements of existence" (n. 189). United States in 1986. Its Final Report, environment is neither immutable nor decades is "because children and adults sanitation as characteristics of successful A leading proponent of the revisionist entitled Population Growth and Economic direct. It is mediated by mobility, access to live much longer than they did a few development. For example, even many Fertility Decline view of the population/development Development, represented a shift by the markets, distribution of wealth, institutions decades ago". Having said this, Becker low-income countries have achieved Rather than a problem of over-population, nexus was the Australian economic NAS to a revisionist position on the and government policies. Where these then asked: "How can one lament substantial improvements in the quality and the real demographic crisis at the present demographer Professor Colin Clark, who population/development question. It factors promote rapid and flexible population growth due to dramatically fewer length of life..." (p.12) time is one of plummeting global fertility is credited with being the inventor of the concluded that it is misleading to equate responses, population growth can be deaths from malnutrition and contagious rates and rapidly ageing populations in concept of Gross National Product (GNP). poverty and pollution with population combined with, or even promote, diseases?".9 • "World agricultural production has risen developed countries. United Nations Stressing the positive role of population growth per se. It found that the claim that agricultural intensification, industrialisation faster than population and real of projections indicate that over the next 50 growth in the development process, population growth led to resource and technological change culminating in A Bounteous Creation food have declined...Over the period 1961- years, virtually all European nations as well Clarke used detailed statistical exhaustion was mistaken and it pointed out sustainable development".6 In 2001, the UN Population Division 98, world per capita food available for direct as Japan will face ageing and declining comparisons within and between that to a great extent environmental produced a report entitled human consumption increased by 24 per populations. In 2000, the Population developing nations to demonstrate a problems could be solved by appropriate Most significantly, the IIRPD stated that Monitoring 2001 which was a study of the cent and there is enough being produced Division of the Department of Economic positive relationship between rate of government policies designed to correct "the most influential person in many relationship between population growth, for everyone on the planet to be and Social Affairs of the UN (DESA) issued population growth and rate of product market failure. dimensions of the population debates in development and the environment. In its adequately nourished" (p.16) a report entitled "Replacement Migration: growth per head. When he died in the post-war period" was Professor Julian introduction, the report acknowledged the Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing September 1989, the London Times paid The IIRPD Report Simon. Professor Simon died suddenly on influence of what it termed "the Julian • "Starting in the 1940s and 1950s, many Populations?". Its major findings were that tribute to Clark's work by saying: "It was The authoritative status of the 1986 NAS February 8, 1998 at the age of 65. The Simon school" in emphasising "the observers feared that non-renewable "the populations of the most developed the fruit of an independent mind Report was acknowledged in the February 21, 1998 edition of the London positive aspects of large and growing mineral and fuel resources would soon be countries are projected to become smaller dedicated to the assembly and Independent Inquiry Report Into Population Economist ran a full page obituary devoted populations" (p.1). Contrary to Malthusian exhausted... During recent decades, new and older as a result of low fertility and presentation of measurable facts... He and Development (IIRPD) commissioned to Simon in which it recalled how Fortune doomsday predictions, this UN Report reserves have been discovered, producing increased longevity," and that "population never accepted the pessimistic view of by the Australian Government in 1994. This magazine had nominated him as one of the stated: the seeming paradox that even though decline in these countries was inevitable in population growth, and at an international Report reaffirmed the revisionist view that "150 great minds of the 1990s." consumption of many minerals has risen, the absence of replacement migration."1° symposium in 1963 with a number of over time it was possible to discern a • "From 1900 to 2000, world population so has the estimated amount of the eminent authorities present, Clark's positive correlation between population Building on the ideas of Clark and Bauer, grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion persons. resource as yet untapped. In addition to Commenting on the economic implications contribution to the subject first attracted growth and sustainable development. In Simon pointed to the extraordinary material However, while world population increased newly discovered reserves, innovations of such trends, Chris Richardson of Access progress of the human race over the last close to 4 times, world real gross domestic in mining and processing technologies Economics, writing in the Australian two centuries despite the unprecedented product (GDP) [actual output of goods and have also served to expand the useable Business Review Weekly said: "One of the 'the so-called "population explosion" of the growth in human population. Regarding services] increased 20 to 40 times, allowing resource base, so that ores and fuel reasons the European Union is unlikely to human welfare indicators such as mortality the world not only to sustain a fourfold deposits that previously had had no ever again seriously challenge the United twentieth century should be seen as a and literacy rates, health, productivity, population increase but also to do so at economic value become valuable States for global economic leadership is poverty, per-capita agricultural output, vastly higher standards of living" (p.1) reserves...ln the 1990s, known reserves that relative population trends strongly blessing rather than a disaster, because it supply and pollution etc, of many natural resources were more favour US over European markets. Professor Simon said: "Almost every • "The twentieth century has witnessed abundant and prices lower than they Similarly, Japan is also demographically stems from a fall in mortality' absolute change, and the absolute an extraordinary growth in world were 20 years previously, despite rising challenged. In 50 years' time, its population component of almost every economic and population...with almost 80 percent of that consumption" (p.34) may be 18% below current levels.""

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