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Mobility 2025 and Beyond

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Mobility 2025 and Beyond eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook 1. Fachtagung "e-mobil in niederösterreich" S. Pölten, March 4, 2015 Contents A. Drivers for Powertrain Electrification 3 B. Status eMobility (eMobility Index Q3/14) 9 C. Trends 2020..2025 19 This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document. © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 2 A. Drivers for powertrain electrification Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 3 A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification eMobility is driven by customer "Pull" and regulatory "Push" Importance of xEVs 2020 and 2025 high Driven by Customer pull Need for xEVs Regulatory push low ~2020 ~2025 Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 4 5 A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification Europe will drive the global powertrain electrification – Long term cost competitiveness of xEVs generates additional market pull Regional powertrain trends (illustrative) 2015 2020 2025 Importance 75 g/km (73 94 g/km (58 PHEV platforms mpg) mpg) Flexible powertrain Next gen. Li-Ion Cost architectures 48V batteries competitive next xEV Importance 17 km/l (40 20 km/l (48 mpg) mpg) 2025 standards Cost innovation xEV not yet defined xEV city driving Cost competitive xEV Importance 41 mpg 54 mpg Cost competitive xEV Importance 13 th 5-Year-Plan High efficient ICE xEV Customer pull Technology innovation Milestones framework Page 5 Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 5 A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification Regulatory requirements push improvements in most regions – In Europe, NA and Japan, there is also a strong customer pull Assessment CO2 emission/fuel consumption regulation and customer pull 2) 4) . Corporate CO2 emission target . Fuel efficiency targets [km/l] . CAFE [mpg or g/mi] . Potential corporate CO2 emission [g/km] . Additional ZEV regulation CARB targets [g/km] ≙ 15.1 ≙ 20.3 ≙ 286 ≙ 213 ≙ 163 . Additional potential fleet xEV target km/l km/l g/mi g/mi g/mi share -26% 178 169 154 -43% -44% 127 -41% 132 114 116 941) 101 95 755) t.d.b. 2013 >2021 2025 2013 2020 2025 2013 2020 2025 2013 2020 2025 Customer pull Customer will only buy cars with most efficient/lowest Customer do not consider CO2 emissions/consumption CO2 emission technology (medium term) in purchase decision (medium term) 1) Average weight depended CO2 emission target 2) EPA & NHTSA estimates of g/mi for passenger cars and light trucks combined, driving cycle compensated 3) End customer pull for low CO2 emission/low fuel consumption powertrain and/or alternative powertrains 4) No decision made yet 5) 68-78 g/km under discussion Source: FAW; EPA, EU; Inovar; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 6 A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification We expect costs of typical PHEV cells to be in a range of 130..150 USD/kWh in 2020 Impact of material improvements on cell prices1) – Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell [USD/cell] ~250 130..150 USD/kWh USD/kWh • Gen 2a: NCM111 …523, -18% -22% Anode 100% Graphite 23.3 • GEN 2b: Ni NCM622 … 811, Anode 100%Graphite/HC • GEN 3a: Ni NCM622 .. 811 Anode Graphite + 5..10% Silicon • GEN 3b: HE-NCM, high voltage spinel silicon anode GEN 2A New materials, GEN 2B Increased GEN 3a cell cost scale effects energy density 2015 1) Cost for Auto. customers 2) Based on a high-density 50-50 mixture of NCM 111 and LiNiO2 Source: Roland Berger LiB Market Model Q1/14 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 7 A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification Costs of TESLA's 18650 cell manufactured in the announced "Giga- factory" could be already at 120$/kWh, but higher integration costs TESLA Gigafactory process flow (until cell) and estimated costs per kWh [$] Other materials (Al, Cu, steel, ..): Depreciation & interest 25-32$ (5 bn$, 7yrs, 10-15%): 35-42$ Raw Steel/ Aluminum Cathode Manufacturing Cathode Can & Cap Precursor: Electrode 35 GWh 12-15$ Aluminum Foil per year (cells) Separator Separator Winding Cell Manufacturing Costs to Polymers Ass- etc.: 5-7$ emby OEM: Raw Materials Raw Anode 120$..130$ Manufacturing Anode Electrode Electrolyte Precursor: Copper Foil Manufacturing 3-5$ Employees (total: ~6500, there-of Energy: LiPF6 etc.: EBT of operators assumed for pack: 500, 70-90k$ p.a.): 120..140 kWh 8-10$ (8-10%): 12-15$ (0,03$): ~4$ 10$ Source: TESLA, Roland Berger LiB market modell Q1/2014; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 8 B. Status eMobility (eMobility Index Q3/14) Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 9 B Status eMobility Technology levels are relatively stable and few new models are being launched (except in China) Value for money of market-ready BEVs and PHEVs EV value for money Country > Stable model policy with tried-and-tested Low Good vehicle models China > Very good value for money France > Increased technical revisions of existing Japan models (esp. battery) > High-priced vehicles very important > Continuing trend toward electrification Moderate (PHEVs) in upper segments Korea > Increasing number of expensive vehicle models > Great volatility in model range Avg. sale price [EUR] Avg. > Slight improvement on technological level, esp. due to joint ventures USA Poor Germany > Renault Twizy continues to lose importance High in model mix > Renault Zoe Z.E. is dominant model 0 100 200 300 400 500 > Kia Soul and Kia Ray still the only Korean Avg. technology level [points] EV models Note: Italian OEMs have no mass-produced EV/PHEV models Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 10 B Status eMobility R&D subsidies are declining strongly in most automotive nations State R&D funding for e-mobility [EUR m], [% of GDP] Country [EUR m] [% of GDP]1) 7,684 0.114 47 0.000 1,025 0.041 925 0.046 105 0.012 0 0.000 171 0.004 1) Subsidies expressed as a share of current GDP (2013??) Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 11 B Status eMobility The US leads the way in vehicle production – Almost all markets have seen increased volume numbers Projected production of EVs and PHEVs through 2017 Country Domestic production of EVs/PHEVs ['000 units] Top 3 models in each country 441 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV, Toyota Prius PHEV 545 Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Chevrolet Volt PHEV 292 BMW i3, VW Passat PHEV, Porsche Panamera PHEV 307 BYD Qin, Kandi KD, Chery QQEV 250 Renault ZOE Z.E., smart fortwo ED, Renault Kangoo Z.E. 11 Kia Soul EV, Kia Ray EV, Chevrolet Spark EV Note: No significant EV/PHEV production is expected in Italy Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 12 B Status eMobility in LiB, Japan remains in pole position and China moves into third place – Samsung has made strong gains with European OEMs Cell manufacturers and production, by country, through 2017 Projected global market share, 20171) Domestic cell production, 2013-2017 [MWh] Total: USD 4.4 bn 2) > Leading cell producer 26% 19.200 > Panasonic is the leader in consumer cells > Primarily LG Chem and Samsung 22% 8.900 > SK Innovation counted as part of Korean footprint > Primarily BYD and other "local for local" players 18% 4.700 > Still primarily A123 and Japanese manufacturers 17% 4.600 with local production (AESC) 6% 100 > Primarily LiTec 5% 0 > No significant cell production 1% 0 > No significant cell production 1) 2017 market value in USD calculated as follows: USD 490/kWh for PHEVs and USD 350/kWh for EVs 2) Including Primearth's market share Source: Roland Berger LiB market model as of Q1 2015 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 13 B Status eMobility China has doubled its sales of EVs compared to the last period Sales figures and market share of EVs/PHEVs, Q1 2014 to Q4 2014 Country Sales of EVs/PHEVs [units] EV/PHEV share of total sales [%] 119,710 0.73 33,185 0.71 52,944 0.23 16,207 0.90 13,049 0.43 856 0.05 1,648 0.12 Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 14 C. Trends 2020..2025 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 15 16 C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27 BACKUP Until 2021, OEMs need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 25-30% – major driver for electrification 1) 2) -30% -29% -27% -29% -29% -29% 143 132 138 138 129 133 94 101 98 100 92 95 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 3) -30% -30% -24% -25% -25% -27% 133 131 122 124 121 120 93 92 93 93 91 88 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 1) Incl. Mini, Rolls-Royce 2) Incl. Smart 3) Incl. Alfa Romeo, Lancia Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 16 1 C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27 7 In Europe, xEV will remain niche until 2020 – Stronger electrification will be required to meet 75 g targets in 2025 Summary push/pull factors xEVs and xEV share [%] – EU Today (2013) Mid-term (2020) Long-term (2025) Push 130 g CO2 emission 95 g CO2 emission regulation 75 g CO2 emission factors regulation for entire fleet 2015 in 2021 – requires some regulation2) – requires xEVs for compliance reasons significant xEV share for compliance Pull . TCO disadvantage .
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