GUEST COLUMN ‘July Surprise’ Moves Make Huge Impact on Politics

Many elections throughout American history have been characterized by an “October surprise,” a last-minute development that changes the dynamics of the campaign, resulting in an unexpected outcome.

These events can be as unanticipated as a natural Pence could not run simultaneously for federal and state disaster or carefully strategized; miraculous in yielding a offices. While Trump debated and Pence waited, sudden victory or disastrous in bringing defeat; small speculation captivated the Hoosier state. and otherwise undetectable or massive in scope and The possible change excited Republican leadership, size. When the change occurs a full four months early, who saw the vacancy as an opportunity. To be however, it is truly a surprise. considered, interested persons already running for other Dr. Laura Merrifield One week in July, nearly every race in Indiana offices in November had to meet the same Friday noon Albright politics changed. The timing was auspicious enough, deadline to remove their names from the ballot. The occurring just before the deadline for candidate changes congenial music in the game of political musical chairs for the November races. Such changes, if any, are often suddenly sped up to a more threatening tempo. small and unremarkable. It is a period when campaigns Trump’s initial announcement slated for 11 a.m. are experiencing a lull between the primaries and Friday troubled observers, who noted the seemingly conventions and the water cooler talk revolves around coincidental timing left only a single hour dividing barbeques, not ballots. Pence’s probable withdrawal from any other interested But in the span of five days, from July 11 to July candidate’s declaration of his or her intentions. When a 15, an unprecedented game of political musical chairs tragic terrorist attack occurred in France and the changed the spread of multiple races, resulting in new announcement was changed to Saturday, the timing matchups, old rivalries and a renewed sense of made clear what the candidates would not: a decision competition that was anything but boring. would be made (by noon Friday) before an announcement. On Monday, July 11, Baron Hill abruptly announced Topping off a whirlwind week, Pence filed to he was ending his bid for the Senate. The one-time remove his name from the ballot late Friday morning, congressman was unopposed in the Democratic primary and almost immediately, Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (the and set to compete against Republican favorite Todd eventual selection of the Republican central committee Young. Within the span of a few hours, , as its gubernatorial candidate) and U.S. Reps. Todd former senator and governor, raised the stakes by Rokita and followed suit. Within the span declaring his bid for the Senate, bringing with him a $9 of five days, the Senate race, the gubernatorial race and million plus war chest and substantial name recognition. others changed dramatically. The following day, Republican presidential candidate The week’s events changed three races directly but Donald Trump traveled to Westfield. The rally was far influenced the entire Indiana ballot as well. With the from routine – in a twist borrowed from “The Celebrity new political matchups yielding more competition and Apprentice,” Trump was in the final stages of selecting generating a reinvigorated interest, Indiana politics once his running mate. Originally a dark horse in the race, again transcended the usual afterthought status typically Gov. outshined other VP hopefuls with a ascribed to it. The May primaries in the state ended the rousing speech that energized the crowd and a long and contentious Republican presidential race with conservative record that attracted the party faithful. Trump’s victory and the suspension of the Ted Cruz A plane issue forced Trump to remain in the state and John Kasich campaigns. At the same time, Bernie another day and fly his finalists into Indianapolis – Sanders’ victory reaffirmed the viability of his movement quickly eclipsing the Tuesday night audition. By Thursday and forced the Democrats to consider concessions to morning, rumors were swirling that Trump had told create unity. Pence, “You’re hired!” Many assumed the focus on Indiana would be The state was restless with anticipation, and not short-lived, but if May was unusual, July proved to be simply because of Pence. His loyal supporters swooned downright unbelievable. Attracting attention for the at the idea of him joining the presidential ticket, while major races can help the down-ballot ones, as voters are his enflamed opposition cheered his presumed absence more interested and more likely to participate with from the gubernatorial ticket and the possibilities that such excitement. Democracy necessitates participation, vacancy would allow. Trump needed to make a decision and if the first half of this year is any indication, Indiana quickly, but Pence needed an offer even faster. may see a surge of recognition and participation in the Indiana’s deadline to change names on the general second half, both of which the Hoosier state is truly election ballot loomed at noon Friday, July 15, and deserving.

AUTHOR: Dr. Laura Merrifield Albright is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis. Learn more at www.uindy.edu/cas/history-political-science/faculty

September/October 2016 – BizVoice/Indiana Chamber 21