Studies COLLEGE OF EUROPE Ever since the first international negotiations on climate change in the early 1990s, the European Union has aspired to play a leading role in global cli- Simon Schunz mate politics. This book engages in a longitudinal analysis of the EU’s participation in and impact on the United Nations climate regime. It provides not only comprehensive insights into the evolution of EU foreign climate policy, but also a thought-provoking audit of the potential and limits European Foreign Union and the Policy Global Climate Regime of the EU’s influence in a major domain of global affairs. European Union Foreign Policy Simon Schunz holds a PhD in Social Sciences from the University of Leuven and the Global Climate Regime (KU Leuven), where he worked as a junior and senior researcher and continues to lecture. He also holds degrees from the College of Europe and the Free University of Berlin. Simon Schunz ISBN 978-2-87574-134-9 P.I.E. Peter Lang Brussels P.I.E. Peter Lang www.peterlang.com Studies COLLEGE OF EUROPE Ever since the first international negotiations on climate change in the early 1990s, the European Union has aspired to play a leading role in global cli- Simon Schunz mate politics. This book engages in a longitudinal analysis of the EU’s participation in and impact on the United Nations climate regime. It provides not only comprehensive insights into the evolution of EU foreign climate policy, but also a thought-provoking audit of the potential and limits European Foreign Union and the Policy Global Climate Regime of the EU’s influence in a major domain of global affairs. European Union Foreign Policy Simon Schunz holds a PhD in Social Sciences from the University of Leuven and the Global Climate Regime (KU Leuven), where he worked as a junior and senior researcher and continues to lecture. He also holds degrees from the College of Europe and the Free University of Berlin. Simon Schunz P.I.E. Peter Lang Brussels P.I.E. Peter Lang European Union Foreign Policy and the Global Climate Regime P.I.E. Peter Lang Bruxelles Bern Berlin Frankfurt am Main New York Oxford Wien Simon SCHUNZ European Union Foreign Policy and the Global Climate Regime “College of Europe Studies” No.18 Bibliographic Information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A CIP catalog record for this book has been applied for at the Library of Congress. An electronic version of this book is freely available, thanks to the support of libraries working with Knowledge Unlatched. KU is a collaborative initiative designed to make high quality books Open Access for the public good. More information about the initiative and links to the Open Access version can be found at www.knowledgeunlatched.org Cover picture: Enviest, © Hélène Le Borgne. D/2014/5678/24 ISSN 1780-9665 • ISBN 978-2-87574-134-9 (Print) E-ISBN 978-3-0352-6409-8 (E-PDF) • DOI 10.3726/978-3-0352-6409-8 Open Access: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial NoDerivatives 4.0 unported license. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This publication has been peer reviewed. © Simon Schunz, 2014 Peter Lang S.A. International Academic Publishers Brussels www.peterlang.com Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations .............................................................. 11 Foreword and Acknowledgements ......................................................15 INTRODUCTION. Rationale of the Study ................................................. 17 The EU, Climate Change and Global Climate Politics .....................21 The Structure of the Study..................................................................23 CHAPTER 1. Analytical Framework: Studying the European Union’s Inf luence on the Global Climate Regime .............................27 Building the Key Concepts: Inf luence Attempts and Inf luence .................................................................................... 27 Setting the Theoretical Scene: Insights from EU Foreign Policy Analysis and Regime Theory ....................................33 Methodological Bases: Analysing and Determining Inf luence ............................................................... 42 CHAPTER 2. Historical Foundations (1980s–1995): EU Inf luence on the Set-up of the Global Climate Regime..............47 The Pre-negotiation Phase: From Scientif ic Circles to F irst Political Negotiations ............................................................47 The EU’s Inf luence on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1991–1992) .......................................................52 The Road to COP 1 (1992–1995) ......................................................64 CHAPTER 3. From the Berlin Mandate to the Kyoto Protocol (1995–1997): EU Inf luence on the F irst Development of the Global Climate Regime ......................................67 The Context: Major Developments in Global Politics and Climate Science ...........................................................................67 Key Actors in the Global Climate Regime and their Positions ..............................................................................68 The Negotiation Process and the EU’s Inf luence Attempts .............................................................................76 The Outcome: the Kyoto Protocol .....................................................95 The EU’s Inf luence Attempts: Extracting Patterns ...........................98 7 Contents The EU’s Inf luence in the Kyoto Protocol Negotiations ................101 Explaining the EU’s Inf luence during the Period 1995 to 1997 ........................................................................................109 CHAPTER 4. From the Buenos Aires Action Plan to the Year 2007 (1998–2007): EU Inf luence on the Consolidation of the Global Climate Regime ............................ 113 COP 4 to COP 7: From the Buenos Aires Action Plan to the Marrakech Accords (1998–2001) ..........................................113 After the Marrakech Accords: Ensuring Ratif ication of the Kyoto Protocol (2002–2004) .................................................127 Towards a Post-2012 Regime: Loose Talks on the Way to Bali (2005–2007) ......................................................134 Determining and Explaining the EU’s Inf luence during the Period 1998 to 2007 .......................................................147 CHAPTER 5. From the Bali Roadmap to the Copenhagen Accord (2007–2009): EU Inf luence on the Post-2012 Global Climate Negotiations ..............................................................151 The Context: Major Developments in Global Politics and Climate Science .........................................................................151 Key Actors in the Global Climate Regime and their Positions ............................................................................154 The Negotiation Process and the EU’s Inf luence Attempts ............170 The Outcome: the Copenhagen Accord ...........................................222 The EU’s Inf luence Attempts: Extracting Patterns .........................225 The EU’s Inf luence in the Post-2012 Climate Negotiations until 2009 ......................................................231 Explaining the EU’s Inf luence during the Period 2007 to 2009 ....................................................................244 CHAPTER 6. Gradually “Back on Track” (2010–2012): EU Inf luence on the Resumed Post-2012 Global Climate Negotiations .......................................................................... 251 The Context: Major Developments in Global Politics and Climate Science .........................................................................251 Key Actors in the Global Climate Regime and their Positions ............................................................................252 The Negotiation Process and the EU’s Inf luence Attempts ...........................................................................257 8 Contents The Outcomes: the Cancun Agreements, the Durban Package and the Doha Gateway ...................................265 Determining and Explaining the EU’s Inf luence during the Period 2010 to 2012 .......................................................269 CHAPTER 7. Explaining EU Inf luence on the Global Climate Regime ...........................................................275 Patterns of EU Inf luence across Time .............................................275 Comparing EU Inf luence Attempts to its Actual Inf luence: the “Goodness of F it” Puzzle ............................ 283 Determinants of EU Inf luence over Time: Propositions on Causal Mechanisms and their Scope Conditions ....................... 287 Conclusion ...............................................................................................301 Major F indings of the Study and their Signif icance .......................301 Research and Normative Implications of the Study ........................303 References ............................................................................................ 311 Annexes ...................................................................................................361 Index.................................................................................................................365