In This Issue: Barry Meadow on Key Races – Page 1 Judging Discussion – Pages 2, 3, and 5 Mastering Money Management – Page 6 When Gambling Goes Bad – Page 8 The 411 on Exotic Wagers – Page 9 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge Q & A – Page 11 Breeders’ Cup Reflections – Page 12 Breeders Crown Pull-Out – Pages 17-26 Back Page/Stats from TimeformUS – Page 28 The Horseplayer Monthly November Issue 1) or even before (Case 2)--without doing further work. Handicapping is time-consuming enough without adding to the burden. By Barry Meadow Let's say, for instance, that the Beyer par for maidens (the class most likely to provide a key race, for a number of When somebody makes some assertion, my first instinct reasons) at Nowhere Downs is 49. In a certain maiden race, the winner turns in a 59, the runner-up a 58, the third-place is to say, “Really? What’s your evidence?” This often makes me less than pleasant to be around. If you don't finisher a 56, and the fourth-place finisher a 54. It doesn't take much circling to note that these guys are going to be believe me, just ask my wife. very tough the next time they enter a maiden race at I always approached handicapping the same way. Just Nowhere Downs, particularly if they don't have to face each because somebody said something on television or wrote it in a popular book, that didn’t necessarily make it so. I other. Anyone who checks the Beyer par for that class will liked to investigate it for myself. And often, that oh-so- immediately see that these guys exceeded it. No wading logical idea turned out to be oh-so-unprofitable. through old charts or paying for key-race reports is Take the key race, for instance. necessary. The key race theory is simple. Some races are stronger Or take a situation in which the BRIS Prime Power Rating than others. Handicappers who consider key races par for a particular class is 108. The entrants for today’s significant prefer horses coming out of stronger races. If third race include one guy at 114, two at 113, and another one or more horses has already come back to win from a at 111. They can't all win today, but when they return next certain race, that indicates that the race might have been time against a group which usually runs to that 108 number, strong: a key race. Some subscriber-based websites track they're going to be major factors--thus making today's race a likely key race even before it is run. key races, although most handicappers who try to identify key races do the work themselves. If we can predict that a certain race will become a key race because several of the entrants recorded fast pace and final Is this a valuable handicapping exercise, a complete waste of time, or something in between? numbers, or because the field was classy to begin with, why do we need to spend our time tracking every entrant in As usual, we have to start with a definition. What those fields? exactly is a key race? One in which more than one horse comes out of it to win its next start? More than two? Let's return to that maiden race and look at the rest of the More than three? field. The also-rans turned in Beyers of 31, 23, 19, and 16. Already we have a problem. Exactly how many winners Are we supposed to follow the slow guys just because they does it take to call a race "key"? How about if nobody ran on the same track at the same time as the four speedy from that race wins, but four of them run second? Does maidens? What is likely to happen if we do? that count? Or what if three of them run terrific races but Now consider this: it is possible that everybody who finish unplaced (duel gamely till deep stretch, stumble and exceeded par will win next time out--and it is also possible make up a lot of ground, run a big race against a bias, that they will all lose. Maybe 59 will be entered in a starter etc.)? If we're circling only the winners out of that key allowance against weak recent maiden winners and romp, race, are we missing something significant? or perhaps he'll be thrown into a stakes race and finish Now how about if the three winners out of a race all won eighth. Maybe 58 will win as expected next time, or it could on massive class drops, say from $40,000 to $10,000? be he'll regress by twenty points for no discernible reason. Was there something about that $40,000 race that made it Perhaps 56 draws into a weaker maiden race and scores, or special, or did all three trainers give up on their horses and sadly he gets into a speed duel and runs fifth. Will 54 find the horses won strictly due to the severe drops? an empty field and avoid his fast friends and win, or will he The race most likely to become a key race has one of two get beaten by two first-time starters? Is the race key, or things going for it--either several entrants have exceeded anti-key? the pace/final-time pars for that class, or the field going And what of the also-rans who did nothing exceptional but into the race was very strong. A decent handicapper can simply appeared on the same track at the identify these either just after the race has been run (Case (continued on next page) THE HORSEPLAYER MONTHLY, BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE HORSEPLAYERS ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA same time as the four speedy maidens? They also could win. Or not. What if 31 gets dropped into a maiden claimer where he improves and gets the money, 23 ran a blazing first half without Lasix and gets the juice next out, We all saw and heard about the Breeders’ Cup Classic 19 stretches out and loves a route, and 16 ships to Delta non-DQ of Bayern. We are not here to argue the call was Downs where his 16 towers above the field? Conversely, bad, or good. There's enough opinion out there on that; in what if they are also-rans again next time? Key race, or dull the Horseplayer Monthly, or on social media, the DRF or race? Paulick Report, and a dozen other avenues. Many things can happen between races--one horse might It's not the point what the call was or wasn’t. The issue is go to a much better trainer, another might get injured, a much bigger. third may get sick and miss valuable training time, a fourth Bettors have been arguing for years that the system for might get shipped to a track across the country. Then inquiries, judging and its consistency have been a pox on consider the next race--one horse might draw a terrible racing's house. Whether it's been suspect and completely post, another might get squeezed at the start to be inconsistent calls on herding, to lack of transparency, to eliminated, a third might save every inch of ground and luck the Kentucky Breeders’ Cup stewards apparently watching into a win at 40-1. Context and luck count. A lot. a football game on one of their monitors, to the Breeders’ What happens, the key-race aficionados might argue, if a Cup Classic, this problem is a real problem. race that looks at first glance to be slow turns out to be a Although the industry sometimes likes to say it’s just key race? How would you know it unless you kept records? noise from a bunch of complainers who lost a bet, that Agreed, you wouldn't. But often these turn out to be no would be wrong. People who are complaining have a right more than coincidences. Sometimes post 3 wins four races to complain, because they are betting real money they in a row for no apparent reason, or six straight favorites work hard for, and just like money in a slot machine, on a score. These aberrant events generally mean nothing. poker table or invested in the stock market, they deserve a Should a horse get credit based on an accomplishment, or fair shake. What’s most maddening to so many, is that a simply on proximity to horses who are running good races? lot of what should’ve been done to make the sport better, Imagine a three-person, one-day invitational golf should’ve been done decades ago. tournament featuring Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, and me. The way some inquiries are handled is insulting; to Rory shoots a 68, Tiger a 69, and Barry a 136. Should I get everyone, from participants to horse owners, to bettors. extra credit from a golf handicapper in my next tournament It’s insular, it’s not transparent and it breeds something simply because I finished third behind two terrific golfers? racing cannot afford to encourage more of: Badwill. That’s what key-race handicappers sometimes do. Although it's folly to compare everything by saying "look My advice: Judge each horse on its merits and how it fits at Hong Kong" because it's one jurisdiction with only a into today’s contest. couple of tracks and few race days, well in this case, look at Hong Kong.