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Absent Voting, the Help America Vote Act of 2002, and the American Overseas Voter: an Analysis of Policy Effectiveness and Political Participation

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Absent Voting, the Help America Vote Act of 2002, and the American Overseas Voter: an Analysis of Policy Effectiveness and Political Participation Absent Voting, the Help America Vote Act of 2002, and the American Overseas Voter: An Analysis of Policy Effectiveness and Political Participation. Submitted by: Judith Murray Department of Politics School of Geography, Politics and Sociology Newcastle University For the Qualification of: Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) November 2012 i Abstract The 2000 Presidential Election demonstrated that the rules that dictate the conduct of elections are fundamental in legitimating electoral processes and outcomes. For the United States, these election rules extend beyond borders, impacting millions of Americans resident overseas. Following the 2000 Election, a number of policy initiatives directed at improving the voting process for American overseas voters were undertaken. However the effectiveness of those policies was not clear. This thesis represents the first scholarly study assessing the effectiveness of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) and the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act of 2009 (MOVE). This assessment will show that neither HAVA nor the MOVE Act have improved the electoral participation of American overseas voters. Through a comprehensive review of the historical development of absent voting legislation in the United States, it will be shown that the events of the 2000 Election should not have been surprising to anyone. This historical review will demonstrate that problems associated with ensuring the franchise for absent voters have been recurring and highly political. In this partisan atmosphere, effective solutions to ensure the franchise of American overseas voters have not emerged. The 2000 Presidential Election also highlighted the potential impact of the political activity of Americans resident overseas on political outcomes in the continental United States. Previous research has not collected or analysed data regarding the demographics, associational involvement or the political attitudes and ideological self-identification of this group. Using data collected on a survey of American voters overseas, the thesis attempts to fill this research gap by analysing how this group relate to the United States political system from abroad and their propensity to participate. ii For Dad, who showed me that politics could be honourable. iii Acknowledgements I would like to thank Newcastle University and the staff of the Politics Department for their cumulative support throughout this process that helped to ensure the completion of this thesis. Particularly, I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr. William Maloney and Dr. Nick Randall. I would also like to thank Dr. Claire Smith of the Overseas Vote Foundation for her friendship, as well as guidance on many issues in this thesis concerning the UOCAVA community, Scott Wiedmann of the Federal Voting Assistance Program for sharing an historical interest in the Soldier Vote of the American Civil War, Dr. Sheila Croucher of Miami of Ohio University for her willingness to read draft chapters and offer guidance on issues concerning the transnational activities of migrants of privilege, Dr. Emily Clough of Newcastle University for offering guidance on statistical methods, Dr. Joe Green of Democrats Abroad for agreeing to participate in an interview in Toronto, and for his overall enthusiasm of this project, Margo Miller, Gary Suwannarat and Lindsay Reynolds of Democrats Abroad for assisting in the administration of the survey for this thesis, and Jodi Ekelchik of Democrats Abroad for intervening on my behalf to the executive committee of Democrats Abroad. I would also like to thank my mom and dad for their support during this process, and Maggie, Alex, Nick and Jeff for being the raison d’être for this endeavour. Finally, I must thank Simon. Without his support and encouragement, none of this would be possible. Tha gràdh agam dhut. iv Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………..……………...………ii Dedication………………………………………………………..……………………..iii Acknowledgements……………………………………………..………………………iv Table of Contents…………………………………………..………………………...v-vii List of Tables and Figures ………………………………..……………...………...viii-ix List of Acronyms…………………………………………...…………………………x-xi Chapter 1: Introduction………….………………………….…..………………………..1 1.1 Overview….…… …………………………………..……………….………1 1.2 Opening Discussion………............................................................................2 1.3 Research Aims................................................................................................8 1.4 Theoretical Approaches..................................................................................9 1.5 Survey Methodology…………….................................................................13 1.5.1 Survey Design…………………………........................................14 1.5.2 Sample Selection…………………………………………………19 1.5.3 Survey Administration…………………....………………………21 1.5.4 Survey Limitations……………………………..……...…………23 1.6 Organisation of Thesis………………………………………………...……25 Chapter 2: The Case of the 2000 Presidential Election…………...……………………28 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………...……………28 2.2 Understanding the 2000 Presidential Election…………………...…………30 2.3 Absentee Ballots and Overseas Absentee Ballots…..…………………...…37 2.4 The Aftermath of Election 2000 and the Help America Vote Act (2002)…...........................................................44 2.5 The Problems with HAVA…………………………………………………52 2.6 Conclusion………………………………………...…………..……………57 v Chapter 3: Overseas Absent Voting in the United States: History Repeating Itself…...60 3.1 Introduction……………………………….…………..……………………60 3.2 What is Absent Voting?……..……………………..……………………....61 3.3 The Elections Clause………………………………………………..……...62 3.4 The 1864 Presidential Election…………………………………...…...……65 3.5 World Wars to the Cold War…………………….…………………...…….67 3.6 The Vietnam Era…………………………………………………..….…….71 3.7 The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act……...………74 3.8 HAVA, The MOVE Act and the Uniform Law Commission…………..….76 3.9 Discussion......................................................................................................79 3.10 Conclusion…………………………..…………..…...……………………83 Chapter 4: The Effect of HAVA and the MOVE Act on Overseas Voter Participation.........................................................................85 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………..…………………….85 4.2 Defining the Problems Faced by Overseas Voters……...………………….86 4.3 The Relationship between Electoral Administration and Electoral Participation, and the Impact of Mobilisation……...…………….90 4.4 Constructing Population Models for the UOCAVA Community..……...…96 4.5 Constructing Voter Turnout for the UOCAVA Population..…………..…106 4.6 Has HAVA and the MOVE Act Improved Overseas Turnout..………......112 4.7 Conclusion............................................................................................…...118 Chapter 5: Political and Social Involvement of the UOCAVA Community……….…120 5.1 Introduction..........................................................................................…...120 5.2 Variables Affecting Political Participation…………………...…………...123 5.3 Survey Methodology............................................................................…...128 5.4 Survey Results and Discussion……………………...…………………….131 vi 5.4.1 What are the demographic characteristics of the UOCAVA community and do they differ from Americans living in the continental United States?..................................................133 5.4.2 What are the political attitudes of the UOCAVA community and how do these differ from Americans living in the continental United States?.................................................139 5.4.3 What is the extent of individual integration into the receiving country as measured by associational involvements and levels of attachment?.............................................................148 5.4.4 What is the nature and extent of continuing contact with the United States as measured by traditional transnational activities and information acquisition?.........................................154 5.5 Conclusion…………………………..…………………………………….163 Chapter 6: Conclusion……………………………..………………………………….166 6.1 Introduction…………………….……..…………………………………..166 6.2 Recent Developments…………………………...……..………………….167 6.3 A Synthesis and Analysis of the Key Findings....................................…...171 6.4 Recommendations and Suggestions for Future Research…..…………….184 6.5 Final Thoughts……………..……………………………….....………….190 Appendix A: Final National Vote Count for the 2000 Presidential Election: George W. Bush and Albert Gore, Jr. Only………...……..………191-192 Appendix B: Final Vote Count for the 2000 Presidential Election: The State of Florida by County…………………………..………..193-194 Appendix C: Survey Instrument………………………….…………...………….195-218 Appendix D: Survey Frequencies…………………………………..……………219-252 Bibliography…………………………………………………...…………………253-280 vii List of Tables and Figures Table 2.1 Typology of Election Reform by State, 2001-2003……..……………..55 Table 2.2 Election Reform Legislation in the States, 2001-2007…………………56 Figure 3.1 Overseas Absent Voting Framework…………….…………..……...….80 Table 4.1 American Political Contributions from Outside the United States, 2000-2008 ………………………………………...……………………95 Table 4.2 Voting Eligible Overseas Population Estimates by State, 2004-2010……………………………………..……………….…103-105 Table 4.3 Rejection Rate of Ballots Submitted For Counting, 2008 and 2010.…111 Table 4.4 Overseas Voter Turnout Estimates, 2004-2010…….…….…...…113-115 Table 4.5 Overseas Voter Turnout Based on the Most Compliant
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