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Nber Working Paper Series Financial Markets and The
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE REAL ECONOMY John H. Cochrane Working Paper 11193 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11193 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2005 This review will introduce a volume by the same title in the Edward Elgar series “The International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics” edited by Richard Roll. I encourage comments. Please write promptly so I can include your comments in the final version. I gratefully acknowledge research support from the NSF in a grant administered by the NBER and from the CRSP. I thank Monika Piazzesi and Motohiro Yogo for comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2005 by John H. Cochrane. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Financial Markets and the Real Economy John H. Cochrane NBER Working Paper No. 11193 March 2005, Revised September 2006 JEL No. G1, E3 ABSTRACT I survey work on the intersection between macroeconomics and finance. The challenge is to find the right measure of "bad times," rises in the marginal value of wealth, so that we can understand high average returns or low prices as compensation for assets' tendency to pay off poorly in "bad times." I survey the literature, covering the time-series and cross-sectional facts, the equity premium, consumption-based models, general equilibrium models, and labor income/idiosyncratic risk approaches. -
Nominal Rigidity and Some New Evidence on the New Keynesian Theory of the Output-Inflation Tradeoff Rongrong Sun1
Munich Personal RePEc Archive Nominal Rigidity and Some New Evidence on the New Keynesian Theory of the Output-Inflation Tradeoff Sun, Rongrong University of Wuppertal 2012 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45021/ MPRA Paper No. 45021, posted 15 Mar 2013 06:19 UTC Nominal Rigidity and Some New Evidence on the New Keynesian Theory of the Output-Inflation Tradeoff Rongrong Sun1 Abstract: This paper develops a series of tests to check whether the New Keynesian nominal rigidity hypothesis on the output-inflation tradeoff withstands new evidence. In so doing, I summarize and evaluate different estimation methods that have been applied in the literature to address this hypothesis. Both cross-country and over-time variations in the output-inflation tradeoff are checked with the tests that differentiate the effects on the tradeoff that are attributable to nominal rigidity (the New Keynesian argument) from those ascribable to variance in nominal growth (the alternative new classical explanation). I find that in line with the New Keynesian hypothesis, nominal rigidity is an important determinant of the tradeoff. Given less rigid prices in high-inflation environments, changes in nominal demand are transmitted to quicker and larger movements in prices and lead to smaller fluctuations in the real economy. The tradeoff between output and inflation is hence smaller. Key words: the output-inflation tradeoff, nominal rigidity, trend inflation, aggregate variability JEL-Classification: E31, E32, E61 1 Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, University of Wuppertal, [email protected]. I would like to thank Katrin Heinrichs, Jan Klingelhöfer, Ronald Schettkat and the seminar (conference) participants at the Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, the DIW Macroeconometric Workshop 2009, the 2011 meeting of the Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) and the 26th Annual Congress of European Economic Association (EEA), 2011 Oslo for their helpful comments. -
Modern Monetary Theory: a Marxist Critique
Class, Race and Corporate Power Volume 7 Issue 1 Article 1 2019 Modern Monetary Theory: A Marxist Critique Michael Roberts [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/classracecorporatepower Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Roberts, Michael (2019) "Modern Monetary Theory: A Marxist Critique," Class, Race and Corporate Power: Vol. 7 : Iss. 1 , Article 1. DOI: 10.25148/CRCP.7.1.008316 Available at: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/classracecorporatepower/vol7/iss1/1 This work is brought to you for free and open access by the College of Arts, Sciences & Education at FIU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Class, Race and Corporate Power by an authorized administrator of FIU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Modern Monetary Theory: A Marxist Critique Abstract Compiled from a series of blog posts which can be found at "The Next Recession." Modern monetary theory (MMT) has become flavor of the time among many leftist economic views in recent years. MMT has some traction in the left as it appears to offer theoretical support for policies of fiscal spending funded yb central bank money and running up budget deficits and public debt without earf of crises – and thus backing policies of government spending on infrastructure projects, job creation and industry in direct contrast to neoliberal mainstream policies of austerity and minimal government intervention. Here I will offer my view on the worth of MMT and its policy implications for the labor movement. First, I’ll try and give broad outline to bring out the similarities and difference with Marx’s monetary theory. -
Research Paper Series No 2016/23
University of Edinburgh School of Law Research Paper Series No 2016/23 Constitution-making and Political Settlements in Times of Transition Christine Bell Professor of Constitutional Law - University of Edinburgh, School of Law [email protected] Charmaine Rodrigues PhD candidate at the University of Melbourne Law School. Silvia Suteu Lecturer in Public Law - University College London Faculty of Laws - [email protected] Tom Gerald Daly Edinburgh Centre for Constitutional Law Jenna Sapiano University of St Andrews - [email protected] To appear in: Global Constitutionalism, special section, forthcoming 2017. This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the name(s) of the author(s), the title, the number, and the working paper series © 2016 Christine Bell, Charmaine Rodrigues, Silvia Suteu, Tom Gerald Daly and Jenna Sapiano Edinburgh School of Law Research Paper Series University of Edinburgh Abstract This special section is an output of the Political Settlement Research Programme – PSRP (www.politicalsettlements.org). The PSRP examines how to use peace processes to create inclusive and open political settlements. This special issue addresses in particular constitution-making and political settlements in times of transition. We consider how constitutional design and adjudication must be understood to have a specific political role in constructing and enabling a political settlement, as in the shared understandings as to how power is to be held and exercised, that forms the political constitution which the constitution attempts to institutionalised. -
Nber Working Paper Series David Laidler On
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES DAVID LAIDLER ON MONETARISM Michael Bordo Anna J. Schwartz Working Paper 12593 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12593 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2006 This paper has been prepared for the Festschrift in Honor of David Laidler, University of Western Ontario, August 18-20, 2006. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2006 by Michael Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. David Laidler on Monetarism Michael Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz NBER Working Paper No. 12593 October 2006 JEL No. E00,E50 ABSTRACT David Laidler has been a major player in the development of the monetarist tradition. As the monetarist approach lost influence on policy makers he kept defending the importance of many of its principles. In this paper we survey and assess the impact on monetary economics of Laidler's work on the demand for money and the quantity theory of money; the transmission mechanism on the link between money and nominal income; the Phillips Curve; the monetary approach to the balance of payments; and monetary policy. Michael Bordo Faculty of Economics Cambridge University Austin Robinson Building Siegwick Avenue Cambridge ENGLAND CD3, 9DD and NBER [email protected] Anna J. Schwartz NBER 365 Fifth Ave, 5th Floor New York, NY 10016-4309 and NBER [email protected] 1. -
Neo-Classical Economics: a Trail of Economic Destruction Since the 1970S Erik S
real-world economics review, issue no. 60 Neo-classical economics: A trail of economic destruction since the 1970s Erik S. Reinert [The Other Canon Foundation, Norway] Copyright: Erik S. Reinert, 2012 You may post comments on this paper at http://rwer.wordpress.com/2012/06/20/rwer-issue-60/ ‘...soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil’. John Maynard Keynes, closing words of The General Theory (1936). Abstract This paper argues that the international financial crisis is just the last in a series of economic calamities produced by a type of theory that converted the economics profession from a study of real world phenomena into what in the end became mathematized ideology. While the crises themselves started by halving real wages in many countries in the economic periphery, in Latin America in the late 1970s, their origins are found in economic theory in the 1950s when empirical reality became academically unfashionable. About half way in the destructive path of this theoretical tsunami – from its origins in the world periphery in the 1970s until today’s financial meltdowns – we find the destruction of the productive capacity of the Second World, the former Soviet Union. Now the chickens are coming home to roost: wealth and welfare destruction is increasingly hitting the First World itself: Europe and the United States. This paper argues that it is necessary to see these developments as one continuous process over more than three decades of applying neoclassical economics and neo-liberal economic policies that destroyed, rather than created, real wages and wealth. -
“Modern” Economics: Engineering and Ideology
Working Paper No. 62/01 The formation of “Modern” Economics: Engineering and Ideology Mary Morgan © Mary Morgan Department of Economic History London School of Economics May 2001 Department of Economic History London School of Economics Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE Tel: +44 (0)20 7955 7081 Fax: +44 (0)20 7955 7730 Additional copies of this working paper are available at a cost of £2.50. Cheques should be made payable to ‘Department of Economic History, LSE’ and sent to the Economic History Department Secretary. LSE, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK. 2 The Formation of “Modern” Economics: Engineering and Ideology Mary S. Morgan* Economics has always had two connected faces in its Western tradition. In Adam Smith's eighteenth century, as in John Stuart Mill's nineteenth, these might be described as the science of political economy and the art of economic governance. The former aimed to describe the workings of the economy and reveal its governing laws while the latter was concerned with using that knowledge to fashion economic policy. In the twentieth century these two aspects have more often been contrasted as positive and normative economics. The continuity of these dual interests masks differences in the way that economics has been both constituted and practiced in the twentieth century when these two aspects of economics became integrated in a particular way. Originally a verbally expressed body of scientific law-like doctrines and associated policy arts, in the twentieth century these two wings of economics became conjoined by a set of technologies routinely and widely used within the practice of economics in both its scientific and policy domains. -
Private Debt Booms and the Real Economy: Do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs?
Private Debt Booms and the Real Economy: Do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs? Emil Vernery Prepared for the INET Initiative on Private Debt August 2019 Abstract Probably not. Economic development coincides with rising private debt-to-GDP. This partly reflects the economic benefits of credit deep- ening, which facilitates a better allocation of savings towards productive investment. However, private debt booms, episodes of rapid expansion in private debt-to-GDP, systemically predict growth slowdowns that re- sult in lower real GDP. Debt booms distort the economy by boosting demand instead of productive capacity and by fueling asset price booms. These booms leave in their wake private debt overhang, banking sec- tor distress, and an overvalued real exchange rate. Private debt booms are thus distinct from credit deepening episodes, and the costs of these booms likely outweigh the benefits. yMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; [email protected] thank Holger Mueller, Karsten M¨uller,Moritz Schularick, and Ole Risager for valuable comments and Fanwen Zhu for outstanding research assistance. 1 1 Introduction Private debt booms are episodes of rapid expansion in credit to households and firms. These booms have been playing an increasingly prominent role in economic fluctuations over the past few decades. A rapid expansion in debt can reflect structural improvements in the financial sector's ability to intermediate funds towards productive investment or an acceleration in productivity growth. Thus, private debt booms may part of the road to financial and economic development through the beneficial effects of credit deepening. However, debt booms have also been followed by growth slowdowns and severe financial crises. -
Major Functions of Law in Modern Society Featured
Case Western Reserve Law Review Volume 23 Issue 2 Article 3 1972 Major Functions of Law in Modern Society Featured David A. Funk Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/caselrev Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation David A. Funk, Major Functions of Law in Modern Society Featured, 23 Case W. Rsrv. L. Rev. 257 (1972) Available at: https://scholarlycommons.law.case.edu/caselrev/vol23/iss2/3 This Featured is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Journals at Case Western Reserve University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Case Western Reserve Law Review by an authorized administrator of Case Western Reserve University School of Law Scholarly Commons. 1972] Major Functions of Law in Modern Society* David A. Funk Jurisprudentialwriting has often failed to examine extensively the important question of the purposes or functions of law. The author sug- gests that such an inquiry implies a relationship between law and some "and-in-view." He selects social utility in attaining an ideal modern Western European society in constructing the theoretical framework for his inquiry. He then lists and explicates seven maJor functions of law in¢ this sense and examines their interrelationshipsin preparationfor empiri- cal research. In conclusion he even suggests how existing empirical studies may test the adequacy of this theoretical framework. I. THE METALANGUAGE AND GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS N THE PURSUIT of jurisprudential understanding, legal phi- losophers have more often dealt with what law is and what is good law than the third of the fundamental issues of jurisprudence what law is for.2 This does not mean that the importance of this line of inquiry has been over- looked. -
The Spectre of Monetarism
The Spectre of Monetarism Speech given by Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England Roscoe Lecture Liverpool John Moores University 5 December 2016 I am grateful to Ben Nelson and Iain de Weymarn for their assistance in preparing these remarks, and to Phil Bunn, Daniel Durling, Alastair Firrell, Jennifer Nemeth, Alice Owen, James Oxley, Claire Chambers, Alice Pugh, Paul Robinson, Carlos Van Hombeeck, and Chris Yeates for background analysis and research. 1 All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx Real incomes falling for a decade. The legacy of a searing financial crisis weighing on confidence and growth. The very nature of work disrupted by a technological revolution. This was the middle of the 19th century. Liverpool was in the midst of a golden age; its Custom House was the national Exchequer’s biggest source of revenue. And Karl Marx was scribbling in the British Library, warning of a spectre haunting Europe, the spectre of communism. We meet today during the first lost decade since the 1860s. In the wake of a global financial crisis. And in the midst of a technological revolution that is once again changing the nature of work. Substitute Northern Rock for Overend Gurney; Uber and machine learning for the Spinning Jenny and the steam engine; and Twitter for the telegraph; and you have dynamics that echo those of 150 years ago. Then the villains were the capitalists. Should they today be the central bankers? Are their flights of fancy promoting stagnation and inequality? Does the spectre of monetarism haunt our economies?i These are serious charges, based on real anxieties. -
The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12 Volume Author/Editor: Ben S. Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg Volume Publisher: MIT Press Volume ISBN: 0-262-02435-7 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/bern97-1 Publication Date: January 1997 Chapter Title: The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy Chapter Author: Marvin Goodfriend, Robert King Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11040 Chapter pages in book: (p. 231 - 296) Marvin Goodfriendand RobertG. King FEDERAL RESERVEBANK OF RICHMOND AND UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA; AND UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA, NBER, AND FEDERAL RESERVEBANK OF RICHMOND The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy 1. Introduction It is common for macroeconomics to be portrayed as a field in intellectual disarray, with major and persistent disagreements about methodology and substance between competing camps of researchers. One frequently discussed measure of disarray is the distance between the flexible price models of the new classical macroeconomics and real-business-cycle (RBC) analysis, in which monetary policy is essentially unimportant for real activity, and the sticky-price models of the New Keynesian econom- ics, in which monetary policy is viewed as central to the evolution of real activity. For policymakers and the economists that advise them, this perceived intellectual disarray makes it difficult to employ recent and ongoing developments in macroeconomics. The intellectual currents of the last ten years are, however, subject to a very different interpretation: macroeconomics is moving toward a New NeoclassicalSynthesis. In the 1960s, the original synthesis involved a com- mitment to three-sometimes conflicting-principles: a desire to pro- vide practical macroeconomic policy advice, a belief that short-run price stickiness was at the root of economic fluctuations, and a commitment to modeling macroeconomic behavior using the same optimization ap- proach commonly employed in microeconomics. -
Financing the Capital Development of the Economy: a Keynes-Schumpeter-Minsky Synthesis
Working Paper No. 837 Financing the Capital Development of the Economy: A Keynes-Schumpeter-Minsky Synthesis by Mariana Mazzucato* University of Sussex L. Randall Wray† Levy Economics Institute of Bard College May 2015 * [email protected] † [email protected] This paper was prepared for the project “Financing Innovation: An Application of a Keynes-Schumpeter- Minsky Synthesis,” funded in part by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, INET grant no. IN012-00036, administered through the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College; Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) and L. Randall Wray (Levy Institute) are the project’s co-principal investigators. The authors thank INET, SPRU, and the Levy Institute for support of this research. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2015 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X Abstract This paper discusses the role that finance plays in promoting the capital development of the economy, with particular emphasis on the current situation of the United States and the United Kingdom.