TRANSPARENCY IN NUCLEAR WARHEADS AND MATERIALS THE POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL DIMENSIONS EDITED BY NICHOLAS ZARIMPAS At a time when arms control is being deconstructed by some and a blueprint for its reconstitution is being sought by others, the enhancement of transparency in nuclear warheads and materials as a means to achieve deeper and irreversible nuclear reductions deserves urgent atten- tion. The contributions in this volume map out the progress made and identify and discuss the reasons why countries pos- sessing nuclear weapons are impeding transparency. The main focus is on the technical means and procedures that have been used, are under development or have been proposed for building, strengthening and institutionalizing transparency. The authors analyse the arrangements for the establishment of stockpile declarations, the verification of nuclear warhead status and dismantlement, the storage and disposal of fissile materials, as well as the monitoring of production facilities. This volume brings together a unique and wide body of information and in-depth analysis by an informed group of arms control experts and is expected to stimulate international debate on the subject of nuclear transparency. Dr Nicholas Zarimpas (Greece) was Leader of the SIPRI Project on Military Technology and International Security in 1999–2002. He previously worked for the European Commission and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, where he specialized in the nuclear fuel cycle and the manage- ment of plutonium. During the past 10 years he has acted as scientific secretary to several international technological and policy committees. Other contributors to this volume Dr Gunnar Arbman (Sweden) Dr Oleg Bukharin (United States) Professor Steve Fetter (United States) Dr Richard L. Garwin (United States) Mr Camille Grand (France) Professor David Hafemeister (United States) Dr Li Bin (China) Dr Alexander Pikayev (Russia) Dr Annette Schaper (Germany) Dr Thomas E. Shea (United States) Professor William Walker (United Kingdom) Recent and forthcoming SIPRI books from Oxford University Press SIPRI Yearbook 2003: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Executive Policing: Enforcing The Law In Peace Operations SIPRI Research Report no. 16 Edited by Renata Dwan paperback and hardback The Regulation of Arms and Dual-Use Exports: Germany, Sweden and the UK Ian Davis The Security of the Caspian Sea Region Edited by Gennady Chufrin A Future Arms Control Agenda: Proceedings of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 Edited by Ian Anthony and Adam Daniel Rotfeld The Evolution of Biological Disarmament SIPRI Chemical & Biological Warfare Studies no. 19 Nicholas A. Sims paperback Military Expenditure of African States: A Survey Wuyi Omitoogun SIPRI Research Report no. 17 paperback and hardback Managing Technology Transfers in a Proliferation Environment: Implementing Article X of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention SIPRI Chemical & Biological Warfare Studies no. 20 Jean Pascal Zanders and Dorothy B. Preslar Paperback ISBN 0-19-925242-4 1 9 780199 252428 Transparency in Nuclear Warheads and Materials The Political and Technical Dimensions Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Catherine Kelleher, Vice-Chairman (United States) Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Professor Dr Helga Haftendorn (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) The Director Director Alyson J. K. Bailes (United Kingdom) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.org Transparency in Nuclear Warheads and Materials The Political and Technical Dimensions Edited by Nicholas Zarimpas OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2003 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kolkata Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi São Paulo Shanghai Taipei Tokyo Toronto Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2003 First published 2003 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-925242-4 Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd., Guildford and King’s Lynn Contents Preface x Acknowledgements xi Acronyms and abbreviations xii 1. Introduction 1 Nicholas Zarimpas I. Towards nuclear disarmament? 1 II. Nuclear warheads and fissile materials 5 III. Transparency: definitions and characteristics 7 IV. Is transparency in nuclear warheads and materials needed? 8 V. Scope and objectives 11 VI. The structure of this volume 11 Part I. The political dimension 2. Reflections on transparency and international security 15 William Walker I. Introduction 15 II. Internal and external transparency 15 III. Competition and secrecy, cooperation and transparency 16 IV. Transparency as an instrument of non-proliferation 18 V. The post-cold war intensification of transparency measures 19 VI. The deterioration of arms control 23 VII. Conclusions 29 3. Nuclear weapon states and the transparency dilemma 32 Camille Grand I. Introduction 32 II. The context of the Non-Proliferation Treaty 33 III. Transparency, democracy and strategic/administrative culture 36 IV. Nuclear transparency and security 37 V. A typology of the transparency efforts of the NWS 39 VI. Conclusions 48 Appendix 3A. China and nuclear transparency 50 Li Bin I. Introduction 50 II. Chinese attitudes towards nuclear transparency 51 III. Reasons for transparency 53 IV. Concerns over transparency 55 vi TRANSPARENCY IN NUCLEAR WARHEADS AND MATERIALS V. Changing factors in the shaping of China’s transparency policy 55 VI. Conclusions 57 4. Transparency and security in Russian–US nuclear relations 58 Alexander Pikayev I. A historical overview 58 II. Post-cold war developments 60 III. Three scenarios for developing nuclear transparency 72 IV. Security concerns and prospects for transparency in warheads 75 V. Conclusions 78 5. US nuclear security cooperation with Russia and transparency 80 David Hafemeister I. Introduction 80 II. Early efforts to control warheads and fissile materials 80 III. Major post-cold war initiatives 85 IV. The 1990s: initiatives to limit warheads and fissile materials 93 V. Conclusions 108 Figure 5.1. Diagram of the Russian nuclear weapon cycle and 86 Russian–US monitoring requirements Figure 5.2. A model of the Mayak Fissile Material Storage Facility under 102 construction at Ozersk, Russia Figure 5.3. A crane at the Mayak Fissile Material Storage Facility 103 lowering fissile material into a ‘nest’ 6. Nuclear transparency from the perspective of non-nuclear weapon 112 states Gunnar Arbman I. Introduction 112 II. Transparency related to the Non-Proliferation Treaty 114 III. Transparency measures relevant to the NNWS 115 IV. Central transparency issues to be addressed by the NNWS 122 V. Options for the NNWS to exert influence towards greater 123 transparency VI. Can the Revolution in Military Affairs help to promote 124 nuclear transparency? VII. Conclusions 125 Part II. The technical dimension 7. Stockpile declarations 129 Steve Fetter I. Introduction 129 II. Progress towards stockpile declarations 131 III. Definitions 132 IV. Declarations: a phased approach 136 V. Verification 145 C ONTENTS vii VI. Conclusions 149 Table 7.1. Levels of information that could be included in declarations 138 of nuclear warhead and fissile material inventories Table 7.2. The number of warheads and military stocks of plutonium 139 and HEU, 2000 Table 7.3. The US warhead inventory, by type, 2000 140 Table 7.4. The US military plutonium inventory, by grade and form, 142 2000 8. Technologies and procedures for verifying warhead status and 151 dismantlement Richard L. Garwin I. Introduction 151 II. Outside the regime: covert warheads