LOCAL Economic Assessment South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment |
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South Gloucestershire LOCAL EcoNOMIC AssessMENT South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South 2011 South Gloucestershire Economy and Skills Strategic Partnership | 1 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Contents 1. Introduction 6 1.1. About This Document 6 1.2. Report Structure 6 1.3. Strengths 7 1.4. Challenges 8 1.5. Opportunities 8 2. Looking Forward 10 2.1. The Comprehensive Spending Review 2010 10 2.2. The Economic Recession 10 2.3. Local Enterprise Partnerships 12 2.4. Census 2011 13 2.5. West of England Local Economic Assessment 13 3. Context: Setting The Scene 14 3.1. The South Gloucestershire area 14 3.2. The West of England 15 3.3. The Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) 15 4. People: Workforce And Skills 18 4.1. Strengths 18 4.2. Challenges 18 4.3. Opportunities 18 4.4. Demographics 19 4.5. Employment and Unemployment 21 4.6. Welfare and Worklessness 23 4.7. Economic Exclusion 25 4.8. Priority Neighbourhoods 26 4.9. Education and Skills 30 5. Business: Enterprise And Innovation 34 5.1. Strengths 34 5.2. Challenges 34 5.3. Opportunities 34 5.4. Structure of the Economy 35 5.5. Strategic Employment Areas 36 Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South 5.6. Major Employers 38 5.7. The Public Sector 38 5.8. Key Value Sectors 39 5.9. Creative and Media 39 5.10. Advanced Engineering, Aerospace and Defence 40 5.11. Microelectronics and Silicon Design 42 5.12. Environmental Technologies 42 5.13. Nuclear Energy 43 5.14. Tourism and Leisure 43 5.15. Key Volume Sectors 44 5.16. Business Start Ups 44 5.17. Economic Competitiveness 47 5.18. Gross Value Added (GVA) 47 | 1 1 Contents 6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability 51 6.1. Strengths 51 6.2. Challenges 51 6.3. Opportunities 52 6.4. Housing 52 6.5. Broadband 58 6.6 Transport 60 6.7. Waste and Recycling 64 6.8. Climate Change: Transition to a Low Carbon Economy 65 6.9. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Activity 65 6.10. Growing the Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS) Sector 67 6.11. Climate Change Adaptation 67 6.12. Flooding 70 6.13. Rural Economy and Local Environmental Quality 71 7. Glossary 76 8. Bibliography 79 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South | 2 1 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local List of Acronyms ABI Annual Business Inquiry IMD Indices of Multiple Deprivation ALC Agricultural Land Classification IPC Infrastructure Planning Committee APS Annual Population Survey JSA Jobseeker’s Allowance ASHE Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings LAU Local Administrative Units BANES/ LEA Local Economic Assessment BaNES Bath and North East Somerset LEP Local Enterprise Partnership BID Business Improvement District LIP Local Infrastructure Plan BIS UK Department for Business, Innovation LPW Learning Partnership West and Skills LSC Learning and Skills Council BRES Business Register and Employment Survey MAA Multi-Area Agreement CLG Communities and Local Government NCC National Composite Centre DECC Department for Environment and NESS National Employers Skills Survey Climate Change NOMIS Formally ‘National Online Manpower DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Information System’ Rural Affairs NVQ National Vocational Qualification DIIP Delivery and Infrastructure Investment NUTS Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Plan Statistics DWP Department for Work and Pensions ONS Office for National Statistics ERDF European Regional Development Fund RIF Revolving Infrastructure Fund ESA Employment Support Allowance RGF Regional Growth Fund EZ Enterprise Zone SGC South Gloucestershire Council FEMA Functional Economic Market Area SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment FSB Federation of Small Business SME Small and Medium sized Enterprises GDHI Gross Disposable Household Income SW South West GDP Gross Domestic Product Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South SWC South West Council GIS Geographical Information Systems SWO South West Observatory GVA Gross Value Added SWRDA South West Regional Development HE Higher Education Agency HECSU Higher Education Career Service Unit TTWA Travel to Work Area IB Incapacity Benefit WoE West of England IDBR Inter Departmental Business Register iNet Innovation Network ILO International Labour Organisation | 3 List of Figures Figure 1: Estimates of Public Sector Employment 2008 11 Figure 2: Map of South Gloucestershire 14 Figure 3: West of England Sub-Region 15 Figure 4: South Gloucestershire Travel Commuter Flows 16 Figure 5: Population by Area 19 Figure 6: Resident Population Estimates by Broad Age Band 19 Figure 7: 2008-based Population Projections 20 Figure 8: 2008-based Population Projections by Broad Age Group 20 Figure 9: Oxford Economics- Population Forecast (2010) 20 Figure 10: Socio-Economic Classification (%) 21 Figure 11: Summary of Employment 21 Figure 12: Employment Rate Change 2009/2010 21 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Figure 13: Unemployed as a Percentage of the Economically Active 22 Figure 14: Unemployment Rate 22 Figure 15: Job Density Graph 22 Figure 16: Total Employment Jobs 22 Figure 17: Employment by Industry in South Gloucestershire (Jul 09- Jun 10) 23 Figure 18: JSA Claimant Count in the West of England 23 Figure 19: JSA Claimants claiming for over 12 months 24 Figure 20: JSA Claimants claiming for over 6 months 24 Figure 21: JSA Claimants aged 24 and under 24 Figure 22: JSA Claimants aged 25 and over 24 Figure 23: JSA Claimants aged 50+ 24 Figure 24: Jobcentre Plus vacancies 25 Figure 25: Benefit Claimants 25 Figure 26: IMD indicators 26 Figure 27: NVQ Level Attainment 30 Figure 28: Not in Education, Employment or Training 32 Figure 29: Characteristics of HE Institutions in the SW 32 Figure 30: Top 10 Major Employers 38 Figure 31: Creative Industries in South Gloucestershire 40 Figure 32: Definition of SMEs 45 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South | 4 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local List of Figures Figure 33: Number of local units in VAT and/or PAYE based enterprises in 2010 45 Figure 34: Business Registration and Closure Rate 45 Figure 35: Business Registration and Closure Rate graph 45 Figure 36: Business Start Up by Sector 46 Figure 37: Legal Status of Business Start Ups 47 Figure 38: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire (Central Forecast) 48 Figure 39: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire (Strong Forecast) 48 Figure 40: Total GVA in the WoE 48 Figure 41: Total GVA at NUTS 3 in 2010 49 Figure 42: Total GVA at NUTS 3 forecasted for 2030 49 Figure 43: GVA by Sector 50 Figure 44: Employment by Sector 50 Figure 45: GVA (per head) Core City Comparison 50 Figure 46: Annual average completions and households in need of affordable housing 53 Figure 47: 2006-based Household Estimates and Projections 54 Figure 48: Housing Need by Tenure (Annual average 2009-2021) 55 Figure 49: Required Unit Mix of new housing for Social Rent 55 Figure 50: Required Unit Mix of Intermediate Housing 55 Figure 51: Property Sales Volume in South Gloucestershire (2007/08/09) 56 Figure 52: Gross Annual Pay (median) of full-time workers 57 Figure 53: Gross Disposable Household Income per head 58 Figure 54: Existing Traffic Issues 62 Figure 55: Cycling City 63 Figure 56: CO2 emissions 66 Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire South Figure 57: Areas of Flood Risk 68 Figure 58: Summary of Issues and Risks/Opportunities of Climate Change 69 Figure 59: Agricultural Land Classification in South Gloucestershire 71 Figure 60: Air Quality Management Areas 74 | 5 1 1. Introduction 1.1. About this document – Environmental Technologies/Marine Renewables, 1.1.1. This document is an assessment of – Tourism the economic conditions of South and to sustain the conditions for Gloucestershire as required by the Local innovation and the development of Democracy, Economic Development and new technologies, products and Construction Act 2009.1 services as well as to encourage high levels of business start-up and 1.1.2. The aim of the South Gloucestershire Local growth of small businesses. Economic Assessment (LEA) is to establish a comprehensive understanding of the • Place will emphasise the need for local economy, and the opportunities and improved transport, environmental challenges it faces. The LEA is a narrative and broadband infrastructure, access about the story of place, supported by to a range of employment land and evidence (quantitative and qualitative) premises, new housing and community in a broadly consistent approach to the infrastructure. other authorities in the West of England (WoE).2 The assessment aims to inform 1.2.2. Each chapter is headed with key findings Local Economic Assessment Economic Local policy for future strategic development and divided into categories; Strengths, is not a strategy in itself. The assessment Challenges and Opportunities. makes comparisons locally and nationally to illustrate strengths, challenges and 1.2.3. A survey of businesses in South opportunities. Gloucestershire has been undertaken in conjunction with the production of the Local 1.1.3. South Gloucestershire Council has Economic Assessment. E-mails containing produced this document in collaboration a link to an online survey were distributed with the South Gloucestershire Economy to a mailing list of local businesses. The and Skills Partnership and its partners survey was also promoted via the council’s within the wider West of England website and Business Link South West. In Partnership area. total 102 responses were received by the closing date. 1.2. Report Structure 1.2.4. The results of this survey are not statistically representative of the views of businesses 1.2.1. The structure of this report follows the broad in South Gloucestershire due to the nature themes of People, Business, and Place. of the consultation methodology used and the number of responses. However, the • The focus on people is aimed at information gathered and views obtained facilitating the supply of a readily are a useful indicator of wider opinion and available workforce with the skills that any important issues that will need to be businesses need.