South Gloucestershire LOCAL Economic Assessment South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment |

2011

South Gloucestershire Economy and Skills Strategic Partnership

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Local Economic Assessment Contents

1. Introduction 6 1.1. About This Document 6 1.2. Report Structure 6 1.3. Strengths 7 1.4. Challenges 8 1.5. Opportunities 8

2. Looking Forward 10 2.1. The Comprehensive Spending Review 2010 10 2.2. The Economic Recession 10 2.3. Local Enterprise Partnerships 12 2.4. Census 2011 13 2.5. West of England Local Economic Assessment 13

3. Context: Setting The Scene 14 3.1. The South Gloucestershire area 14 3.2. The West of England 15 3.3. The Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) 15

4. People: Workforce And Skills 18 4.1. Strengths 18 4.2. Challenges 18 4.3. Opportunities 18 4.4. Demographics 19 4.5. Employment and Unemployment 21 4.6. Welfare and Worklessness 23 4.7. Economic Exclusion 25 4.8. Priority Neighbourhoods 26 4.9. Education and Skills 30

5. Business: Enterprise And Innovation 34 5.1. Strengths 34 5.2. Challenges 34 5.3. Opportunities 34 5.4. Structure of the Economy 35 5.5. Strategic Employment Areas 36 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | 5.6. Major Employers 38 5.7. The Public Sector 38 5.8. Key Value Sectors 39 5.9. Creative and Media 39 5.10. Advanced Engineering, Aerospace and Defence 40 5.11. Microelectronics and Silicon Design 42 5.12. Environmental Technologies 42 5.13. Nuclear Energy 43 5.14. Tourism and Leisure 43 5.15. Key Volume Sectors 44 5.16. Business Start Ups 44 5.17. Economic Competitiveness 47 5.18. Gross Value Added (GVA) 47

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Contents

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability 51 6.1. Strengths 51 6.2. Challenges 51 6.3. Opportunities 52 6.4. Housing 52 6.5. Broadband 58 6.6 Transport 60 6.7. Waste and Recycling 64 6.8. Climate Change: Transition to a Low Carbon Economy 65 6.9. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Activity 65 6.10. Growing the Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS) Sector 67 6.11. Climate Change Adaptation 67 6.12. Flooding 70 6.13. Rural Economy and Local Environmental Quality 71

7. Glossary 76

8. Bibliography 79 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 2 1 Local Economic Assessment List of Acronyms

ABI Annual Business Inquiry IMD Indices of Multiple Deprivation ALC Agricultural Land Classification IPC Infrastructure Planning Committee APS Annual Population Survey JSA Jobseeker’s Allowance ASHE Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings LAU Local Administrative Units BANES/ LEA Local Economic Assessment BaNES Bath and North East Somerset LEP Local Enterprise Partnership BID Business Improvement District LIP Local Infrastructure Plan BIS UK Department for Business, Innovation LPW Learning Partnership West and Skills LSC Learning and Skills Council BRES Business Register and Employment Survey MAA Multi-Area Agreement CLG Communities and Local Government NCC National Composite Centre DECC Department for Environment and NESS National Employers Skills Survey Climate Change NOMIS Formally ‘National Online Manpower DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Information System’ Rural Affairs NVQ National Vocational Qualification DIIP Delivery and Infrastructure Investment NUTS Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Plan Statistics DWP Department for Work and Pensions ONS Office for National Statistics ERDF European Regional Development Fund RIF Revolving Infrastructure Fund ESA Employment Support Allowance RGF Regional Growth Fund EZ Enterprise Zone SGC South Gloucestershire Council FEMA Functional Economic Market Area SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment FSB Federation of Small Business SME Small and Medium sized Enterprises GDHI Gross Disposable Household Income SW South West

GDP Gross Domestic Product South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | SWC South West Council GIS Geographical Information Systems SWO South West Observatory GVA Gross Value Added SWRDA South West Regional Development HE Higher Education Agency HECSU Higher Education Career Service Unit TTWA Travel to Work Area IB Incapacity Benefit WoE West of England IDBR Inter Departmental Business Register iNet Innovation Network ILO International Labour Organisation

3 List of Figures

Figure 1: Estimates of Public Sector Employment 2008 11 Figure 2: Map of South Gloucestershire 14 Figure 3: West of England Sub-Region 15 Figure 4: South Gloucestershire Travel Commuter Flows 16 Figure 5: Population by Area 19 Figure 6: Resident Population Estimates by Broad Age Band 19 Figure 7: 2008-based Population Projections 20 Figure 8: 2008-based Population Projections by Broad Age Group 20 Figure 9: Oxford Economics- Population Forecast (2010) 20 Figure 10: Socio-Economic Classification (%) 21 Figure 11: Summary of Employment 21 Figure 12: Employment Rate Change 2009/2010 21

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Figure 13: Unemployed as a Percentage of the Economically Active 22 Figure 14: Unemployment Rate 22 Figure 15: Job Density Graph 22 Figure 16: Total Employment Jobs 22 Figure 17: Employment by Industry in South Gloucestershire (Jul 09- Jun 10) 23 Figure 18: JSA Claimant Count in the West of England 23 Figure 19: JSA Claimants claiming for over 12 months 24 Figure 20: JSA Claimants claiming for over 6 months 24 Figure 21: JSA Claimants aged 24 and under 24 Figure 22: JSA Claimants aged 25 and over 24 Figure 23: JSA Claimants aged 50+ 24 Figure 24: Jobcentre Plus vacancies 25 Figure 25: Benefit Claimants 25 Figure 26: IMD indicators 26 Figure 27: NVQ Level Attainment 30 Figure 28: Not in Education, Employment or Training 32 Figure 29: Characteristics of HE Institutions in the SW 32 Figure 30: Top 10 Major Employers 38 Figure 31: Creative Industries in South Gloucestershire 40 Figure 32: Definition of SMEs 45 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 4 Local Economic Assessment List of Figures

Figure 33: Number of local units in VAT and/or PAYE based enterprises in 2010 45 Figure 34: Business Registration and Closure Rate 45 Figure 35: Business Registration and Closure Rate graph 45 Figure 36: Business Start Up by Sector 46 Figure 37: Legal Status of Business Start Ups 47 Figure 38: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire (Central Forecast) 48 Figure 39: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire (Strong Forecast) 48 Figure 40: Total GVA in the WoE 48 Figure 41: Total GVA at NUTS 3 in 2010 49 Figure 42: Total GVA at NUTS 3 forecasted for 2030 49 Figure 43: GVA by Sector 50 Figure 44: Employment by Sector 50 Figure 45: GVA (per head) Core City Comparison 50 Figure 46: Annual average completions and households in need of affordable housing 53 Figure 47: 2006-based Household Estimates and Projections 54 Figure 48: Housing Need by Tenure (Annual average 2009-2021) 55 Figure 49: Required Unit Mix of new housing for Social Rent 55 Figure 50: Required Unit Mix of Intermediate Housing 55 Figure 51: Property Sales Volume in South Gloucestershire (2007/08/09) 56 Figure 52: Gross Annual Pay (median) of full-time workers 57 Figure 53: Gross Disposable Household Income per head 58 Figure 54: Existing Traffic Issues 62 Figure 55: Cycling City 63

Figure 56: CO2 emissions 66 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Figure 57: Areas of Flood Risk 68 Figure 58: Summary of Issues and Risks/Opportunities of Climate Change 69 Figure 59: Agricultural Land Classification in South Gloucestershire 71 Figure 60: Air Quality Management Areas 74

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1. Introduction

1.1. About this document – Environmental Technologies/Marine Renewables, 1.1.1. This document is an assessment of – Tourism the economic conditions of South and to sustain the conditions for Gloucestershire as required by the Local innovation and the development of Democracy, Economic Development and new technologies, products and Construction Act 2009.1 services as well as to encourage high levels of business start-up and 1.1.2. The aim of the South Gloucestershire Local growth of small businesses. Economic Assessment (LEA) is to establish a comprehensive understanding of the • Place will emphasise the need for local economy, and the opportunities and improved transport, environmental challenges it faces. The LEA is a narrative and broadband infrastructure, access about the story of place, supported by to a range of employment land and evidence (quantitative and qualitative) premises, new housing and community in a broadly consistent approach to the infrastructure. other authorities in the West of England (WoE).2 The assessment aims to inform 1.2.2. Each chapter is headed with key findings Local Economic Assessment Economic Local policy for future strategic development and divided into categories; Strengths, is not a strategy in itself. The assessment Challenges and Opportunities. makes comparisons locally and nationally to illustrate strengths, challenges and 1.2.3. A survey of businesses in South opportunities. Gloucestershire has been undertaken in conjunction with the production of the Local 1.1.3. South Gloucestershire Council has Economic Assessment. E-mails containing produced this document in collaboration a link to an online survey were distributed with the South Gloucestershire Economy to a mailing list of local businesses. The and Skills Partnership and its partners survey was also promoted via the council’s within the wider West of England website and Business Link South West. In Partnership area. total 102 responses were received by the closing date.

1.2. Report Structure 1.2.4. The results of this survey are not statistically representative of the views of businesses 1.2.1. The structure of this report follows the broad in South Gloucestershire due to the nature themes of People, Business, and Place. of the consultation methodology used and the number of responses. However, the • The focus on people is aimed at information gathered and views obtained facilitating the supply of a readily are a useful indicator of wider opinion and available workforce with the skills that any important issues that will need to be businesses need. considered. This assessment will use the results of the business survey, where • The approach for business is to target appropriate, to expand, and help qualify the and support the West of England’s five existing evidence base. key emerging sectors; – Creative and Media, – Advanced Engineering, Aerospace and Defence, – Micro-electronics and Silicon Design,

1 http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2009/20/contents South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 2 http://www.westofengland.org/ 6 1 Local Economic Assessment

1.3. Strengths 1.3.3. High Employment5: The employment rate which can be defined as the percentage of 1.3.1. Diverse Economy: The economy of South the economically active population (those Gloucestershire is driven by a diversity of people aged 16-64) in work for South well–represented sectors3 which includes a Gloucestershire (July 2009-June 2010) is mixture of key value sectors (those sectors 79.7%. This is higher than the average for that contribute significantly to employment/ the South West (73.4%) and the UK (70.4%). economic output) and key volume sectors The business service sector is the largest (those sectors that contribute significantly to contributor to employment (33,000/21.7% of employment. total employment in South Gloucestershire).

1.3.2. Buoyant Economy4: South 1.3.4. Low Unemployment6: 5.1% (7,300) of Gloucestershire has a buoyant economy. South Gloucestershire’s economically active population are unemployed. This is lower • Total Gross Value Added (GVA): The than both the average in the South West total GVA for South Gloucestershire in (6.0%) and the UK (7.0%). 2010 is expected to be £6,090,000. This is expected to rise to £10,542,000 by • Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA): 1.8% 2030. (3,120) of people claim Job Seeker’s Allowance in South Gloucestershire • GVA by Sector: The business service (December 2010). This compares to sector is the largest contributor of GVA an average of 6.3% of the economically to South Gloucestershire’s economy active population unemployed in the (£1,267,000/20.8% of total GVA in South WoE sub–region and 7% nationally. Gloucestershire). • Incapacity Benefit (IB): 4.0% (6,840) • At a West of England (WoE) Level: people claim incapacity benefit. This is South Gloucestershire is the second lower than the average in the South West largest contributor of GVA in the WoE (5.9%) and England (6.3%). sub–region after Bristol (in 2010 expected to be £10,609,000). • Disability Living Allowance (DLA): 0.9% (1,450) people claim disability living • At a Nomenclature of Units for allowance in South Gloucestershire. Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 3 Level: This is broadly consistent with the South Bath and North East Somerset, North West and England which both have a Somerset and South Gloucestershire are DLA rate of 1.0%. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | the highest contributors of GVA in the South West region. 1.3.5. High Number of Jobs7: South Gloucestershire has more jobs (153,000) than economically active population (139,200). This attracts a highly skilled workforce from across the WoE Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) and further afield. The number of jobs in South Gloucestershire is predicted to grow from 153,000 jobs in 2010 to 181,800 jobs in 2030.

3  http://www.westofengland.org/skills--competitiveness/skills/sector-skills--competitiveness-statements 4  http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ 5 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 7 6 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 7  http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ 1

1. Introduction

1.3.6. Greater Gross Disposable Household 1.4.3. Lower than Average Attainment of Income (GDHI)8: At a NUTS 3 level, South NVQ Level 4+10: 27.1% (44,800) of the Gloucestershire, Bath and North East population of South Gloucestershire have Somerset (BANES), and North Somerset achieved qualifications of NVQ4+ this is have a higher than average GDHI per head lower than all three other authorities in the (£15,322), compared with Bristol (£13,525), West of England. Bristol (35.1%), BANES, the South West (£14,680) and the UK (35.3%) and North Somerset (30.2%). This (£14,334). is also lower than the average in the South West (29.1%) and Great Britain (29.9%). 1.3.7. Good Transport Connections to Other Parts of the UK: South Gloucestershire 1.4.4. High Public Sector Employment: There offers relatively good road and rail is expected to be up to 330,00011 public connections to other parts of the UK and sector job losses in the public sector in relative proximity to London. There is also the UK over the next four years. This will good access to port and airport facilities. adversely affect the economy of South Gloucestershire which has 27,10012 public sector jobs. The extent of job losses in 1.4. Challenges South Gloucestershire is currently unclear Local Economic Assessment Economic Local and the LEA should be updated when the 1.4.1. Higher than Average House Prices9: exact number and distribution of job losses Average house prices in South becomes clear. Gloucestershire (£182,357) are higher than the national average which was £165,505 in October 2010. In contrast, the average 1.5. Opportunities income in South Gloucestershire (2009) for residents (£25,522) is slightly lower than 1.5.1. Investment in the Low Carbon Economy: the national picture (£26,148). The effect There are significant commercial of higher average house prices coupled opportunities associated with the transition with lower median incomes for residents to a low carbon economy. Relevant sectors of South Gloucestershire is likely to reduce include renewable and sustainable energy the amount of individual disposable income and related infrastructure (e.g. smart grids available. and district heating networks), and low carbon vehicles and transport infrastructure. 1.4.2. High Car Dependency: The high level of In addition, low carbon building design growth in South Gloucestershire throughout and construction is likely to benefit from the past half century has led to high rates the major development proposed in South of traffic growth, increasing congestion, Gloucestershire. Such sectors could play unsustainable commuting patterns and a key role in economic recovery in South longer journey times. Infrastructure, Gloucestershire and increase the resilience, and particularly the transport network, is competitive advantage and marketability struggling to cope with the high level of of the economy, whilst also reducing development that has taken place over greenhouse gas emissions. recent years. This growth has also not been matched by the appropriate level of supporting services and infrastructure, a situation which has been exacerbated by the impact of the economic recession.

8 http://www.swo.org.uk/resources/reports-briefing/gdhi/ South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 9 http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/ 8 10 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 11 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11860585 12 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/special-economy-module-publications/ 1 Local Economic Assessment

1.5.2. Improvement in Transport Infrastructure13: Delivery of the proposed packages to improved public transportation in the area could help reduce car dependency levels which in turn will relieve congestion and enhance the productivity of the regions businesses and reduce CO2 emissions.

1.5.3. Generating Private Sector Jobs: The WoE Local Enterprise Partnership will work with the private sector to facilitate growth and job creation in the private sector in turn this will absorb some of the effects of job losses in the public sector.

1.5.4. Investment in Higher Education Institutions: Working in partnership with business and further/higher educations institutes to encourage growth in the skills and expertise required by employers in the key value sectors of South Gloucestershire.

1.5.5. House Growth: 18,900 dwellings as identified in the Core Strategy14 are expected to be delivered at a rate of 1,112 dwellings each year, between 2009 and 2026. The impact of increased house building is likely to increase the affordability of housing and reduce the likelihood of further increases to the average house price in South Gloucestershire. House building will also stimulate the economy through increased employment. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment |

13 http://travelplus.org.uk/ 14 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/exeres/99affbab-2714-4578-9d10-886983548a6c 9 2

2. Looking Forward

While this assessment is aimed at • Residents of South Gloucestershire establishing a picture of the current are also likely to experience increased economic climate in South Gloucestershire, rail and bus fares. The CSR prioritises it is also important to recognise that there capital spending on transport projects are a number of factors which may contribute which can offer high economic returns to the relative success or failure of South when compared to investment projects Gloucestershire’s economy in the coming in other sectors. By focusing on projects years. According to the business survey 50% that deliver greater benefits in return for of respondents described the outlook for their costs, the positive impact of capital their business over the next year as mixed, spending on the wider economy can be while a third were optimistic. maximised.

• The electrification of the west coast 2.1. t he Comprehensive Spending Review mainline is a major investment into the 2010 railway infrastructure which will benefit South Gloucestershire by quicker, 2.1.1. The Comprehensive Spending Review cleaner and more reliable train services (CSR)15 was published on the 20th October passing through Bristol Parkway railway Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 2010. The Treasury produced the review station. If the process of electrification in order to allocate funds to all government is given approval and procures sufficient departments for the next several years. The funding it will be a step closer to review outlined the coalition government’s enabling high speed rail. deficit reduction plan. There is a need to reduce the structural deficit of the UK • Several key road projects including in order to maintain its credit worthiness; improvements between junction 19 and however, such fiscal retrenchment 20 of the M4 and junction 15–17 of the will undoubtedly have far reaching M5 in South Gloucestershire will alleviate consequences for the economy of South congestion in the area as well as reduce Gloucestershire. average journey times for commuters. The full details of the plans are yet to be 2.1.2. Key expected issues for South unveiled. Gloucestershire as a result of the CSR:

• The potential impact of public sector 2.2. the Economic Recession redundancies is likely to increase the 2.2.1. It is important to recognise the effects of the amount of worklessness and number recent economic recession, this is because of individuals claiming Job Seeker’s its consequences are far reaching and Allowance. to a large extent speculative. The effects of the economic downturn are changing • State pension age for men and constantly; therefore, it is important to women will reach 66 by 2018. This recognise the potential implications for the is an important step to plugging the economy of South Gloucestershire in the affordability gap of pensions in the UK. coming years. Nearly half of respondents This will however mean that people are to the South Gloucestershire business expected to work longer. Moreover, survey stated that weak customer demand this may also contribute to graduate was the key issue restricting the growth of unemployment as the number of job their business. The implications of fiscal vacancies are likely to decrease. retrenchment and the current governments

15 http://cdn.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sr2010_completereport.pdf South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 10 2 Local Economic Assessment

desire to cut the structural deficit makes 2.2.3. South Gloucestershire has a high South Gloucestershire more vulnerable to proportion of administration jobs in the cut backs in the public sector due to a high public sector. According to the South West rise in the amount of people employed in Observatory17 19.8% of total employees the public sector in recent years. have jobs in the public sector. This is marginally lower than the percentage of Public Sector Job Losses total employment identified in the South West region and England. Although the 2.2.2. According to the South West Observatory percentage of public sector jobs in South (SWO)16 the public sector headcount for Gloucestershire is slightly lower than the South West was 528,000 in the first other areas, the net effect of public sector quarter of 2010. 21.2% of SW employees redundancies is likely to be greater. This worked in the public sector in 2010 Q1, is because there is a lot of cross boundary compared to 20.1% for England. The region movement between local authority areas in saw the largest change in public sector the WoE. employment across the United Kingdom over the last decade, with an increase of Adjusted Public Sector Estimate more than 100,000 jobs between 2000 and 2010 and therefore is vulnerable to Employment % of total any planned cuts. Although large urban (000s) employment centres will see greatest numerical losses, England 4,619.7 20 small centres and peripheral areas, where private sector activity is weaker, South West 474.6 21.2 may feel the effects most. 19.8% of total BANES 19.7 25.1 employment in South Gloucestershire is in the public sector. This is particularly Bristol 48.7 21.1 relevant to the defence sector which is N.Somerset 13.3 17.8 highly prevalent in the South West and South Gloucestershire. The South West has South 27.1 19.8 high levels of defence-related employment Gloucestershire and any cuts in defence spending could have significant impact across the region. Figure 1: Estimates of Public Sector Employment 200817 37% of England’s civil service defence Source: South West Observatory (SWO) employment (23,000 employees) is based in the South West, along with 29% of regular 2.2.4. According to the business survey results armed force personnel (42,000). Many of three quarters of respondents told us that South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | the region’s localities are vulnerable to any sales to the public sector accounted for job cuts that may be recommended by the less than 25% of their current sales. When Strategic Defence Review. Any cuts are asked what action they were taking to expected to be compounded by the effects reduce their businesses exposure to cuts on the defence supply chain as many key in public sector budgets, respondents companies are also located in the South told us they were exploring new markets, West. expanding their customer base and seeking customers from the private sector. Many felt that no action was necessary as the public sector only accounted for a small proportion (if any) of their business.

16 http://www.swo.org.uk/search/?q=impact+of+public+sector+spending+cuts 17 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/special-economy-module-publications/ 11 2

2. Looking Forward

Reduced Capital Spending Welfare Reform

2.2.5. Reduced capital spending is likely to 2.2.8. Cuts to the welfare system will affect affect major planned transport schemes benefit claimants in the area, however, and public works projects which will delay the extent of any such cuts are currently any economic benefits expected through speculative. [Refer to section 4.6 welfare such plans. For example any financial cut and worklessness for more information]. backs to the planned bus improvements will inevitably delay improvements to congestion and air quality in the area. 2.3. Local Enterprise Partnerships Moreover, any reduction in house building is 2.3.1. In summer 2010 the government likely to affect the affordability of dwellings. announced the opportunity for areas to The government has reduced the capital develop Local Enterprise Partnerships grant for affordable housing from £8.4 (LEPs). These are partnerships between billion, between April 2008 and March 2011, local authorities and businesses that will to £4.5 billion between April 2011 and March play a key role in promoting local economic 2015. development. They will take on some of

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local the roles of the recently abolished Regional Reduced Procurement and Spending Development Agencies (RDAs). LEPs will drive economic growth across an economic 2.2.6. Any direct job losses from the public area. They provide a means for local sector, will lead to a reduction in contracts authorities to work together with business in for private sector business that has the order to quicken the economic recovery. public sector as a client, potentially leading to private sector redundancies in some 2.3.2 Some of the region’s leading business sectors and reduced wages (through job people are helping to drive forward the losses but also through a public sector newly formed West of England Local pay freeze) this may lead to further private Enterprise Partnership (LEP) which will sector job losses; and there will be a play a key role in delivering 95,000 jobs reduction to public service provision. At the in the West of England area by 2030 and same time, there is likely to be a range of attracting at least £1 billion of private sector offsetting factors – opportunities will arise investment over the next five years. for the private sector, which is hoped will supply the shortfall in jobs as a result of 2.3.3 The Local Enterprise Partnership will work public sector cuts. closely with the Government on the West of England’s economic priorities and is Reduction in Public Service Provision likely to have enhanced powers, such as innovative ways of raising revenue. It will 2.2.7. A reduction in public service provision promote and support the key high growth is likely to have greater implications for sectors of aerospace; creative industries; poorer people in society. A reduction in environmental industries, silicon and subsidies for bus routes for example may microelectronics; and tourism that are make it more expensive for people to travel vital to the West of England’s economy, by bus. It may also put at risk some rural as well as encouraging high levels of new bus services which rely on government business start-ups and the growth of small subsidies. Furthermore, this is likely to have businesses.’ a significant impact on rural economies. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 12 2

2. Looking Forward Local Economic Assessment

2.4. Census 2011

2.4.1. In March 2011 there will be a national census18 which will provide up to date information on the population in South Gloucestershire. The census will help inform policy on how best to plan, fund and deliver everyday services like housing, education, healthcare and transport. The census will include up to date information on demographics, employment and worklessness trends in South Gloucestershire. The data from this census will be available from 2012.

2.5. West of England Local Economic Assessment

2.5.1. In 2008 the West of England partnership published a sub-regional economic assessment. This assessment offered a coherent economic analysis of the sub-regional economy and the factors determining its performance. Since then economic evidence has been gathered to support the Multi-Area Agreement (MAA),19 West of England Delivery and Infrastructure Plan (DIIP)20 and Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP).21 The South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment will inform an updated version of the West of England sub-regional Local Economic Assessment. This should better inform the wider policy issues and strategy for the West of England partnership and the South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | new WoE LEP.

18 http://2011.census.gov.uk/ 19 http://www.westofengland.org/media/161027/maa2%20agrt%20themesl%20v8%20140809.pdf 20 http://www.westofengland.org/media/179564/wofe%20diip%20220410.pdf 13 21 http://www.westofengland.org/local-enterprise-partnership 3

3. Context: Setting the Scene Figure 2: Map of South Gloucestershire22 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local

© Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011.

3.1 The South Gloucestershire Area 3.1.2. The West of England has a total population of 1,056,36523 (5,231,200 in the South West) 3.1.1. South Gloucestershire is an area of strongly and 262,200 (261,800 according to Oxford contrasting landscapes, from the internationally Economics central forecast) of these people important habitats of the Severn Estuary in the live in South Gloucestershire. Moreover, west to the Cotswolds Area of Outstanding Natural South Gloucestershire has the second Beauty in the east. The built areas comprise the largest population in the West of England northern and eastern fringes of Greater Bristol and sub–region after the City of Bristol (430,100 the many settlements scattered throughout the according to Oxford Economics/ 433,100 extensive rural area. according to ONS).

22 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/exeres/55497410-111B-4AAC-8E7C-041FD6874DF4 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 23 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/Default.asp *Sum of total population for BaNES, Bristol, Northeast Somerset and South Gloucestershire 14 3 Local Economic Assessment

3.1.3. The South West is the most rural English 3.2.1. South Gloucestershire Council is part region. However, over the past 10 years of the West of England LEP which was it has had the greatest increase in both formed in response to the opportunities housing stock and traffic on major roads. and challenges facing the four unitary authorities: Bath and North East Somerset, 3.1.4. The total economically active population Bristol, North Somerset and South of South Gloucestershire is 139,200 with Gloucestershire; and a range of social, a total of 131,500 of these people in economic and environmental partners. employment.25 3.2.2. The LEP was set up in order to respond to 3.1.5. 60% of the authority’s total population live a number of cross boundary challenges in the built up areas immediately adjoining within the rapidly growing city region Bristol, namely Filton, Patchway, Bradley and to maximise opportunities through Stoke, Kingswood, Downend, Staple Hill establishing and developing effective and Hanham. Around 19% live in the towns partnership working arrangements to tackle of Yate, Chipping Sodbury and Thornbury strategic issues such as the economy, and the remaining 20% live in the more rural waste disposal, housing, cultural facilities areas of South Gloucestershire. This is an and transport. interesting dynamic given that 80% of the geographic area is rural and only 20% is urban.26 3.3. t he Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) 3.1.6. The North Fringe of Bristol is one of the most economically important locations 3.3.1. FEMAs29 offer collaboration at a spatial in the South West and includes the key level with neighbouring areas where sectors of aerospace engineering, defence strong economic links exist. There is no procurement and equipment support, universal approach to defining these areas financial services, retail and education. and these localities are largely based on The area supports in the order of 70,000 local economic markets. FEMAs should jobs, which is twice as many jobs as however be defined on the basis of several resident workers.27 catchment areas which best reflect the drivers of the local economy. The functional economic market area of the West of 3.2. the West of England England includes South Gloucestershire, Bristol, North Somerset, and Bath and

Figure 3: West of England South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Northeast Somerset. Sub–Region28 Source: WoE Multi Area 3.3.2. One approach to defining FEMAs, and the Agreement (MAA) most widely used approach, is to identify FEMAs by Travel to Work Areas (TTWA). A TTWA is where of the resident economically active population at least 75% work in the area; and of all those working in the area at least 75 per cent also live in the area.30 The following map shows the TTWA of South Gloucestershire.

24 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 27 http://www.ourareaourfuture.org.uk/NR/rdonlyres/5C331ED5-BAF2-4A1A-9656- 25 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx BEEE6CB6150D/0/PTE100058.pdf 26  http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/95886670-6B12-4A06-A737-676CBE03F078/0/ 28 http://www.westofengland.org/media/161027/maa2%20agrt%20themesl%20v8%20140809.pdf 15 Equalitiesstandardfull.pdf 29 http://www.swo.org.uk/local-economic-assessments/fema/ 30 http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/localgovernment/pdf/1469713.pdf 3

3. Context: Setting the Scene

Wales

Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local

Bristol Wiltshire

North Somerset

B&NES Bath

© Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011.

Number of people travelling to work <1,000 3-5,000 6-8,500 25-30,000 35-40,000

Figure 4: South Gloucestershire Travel Commuter Flows Source: Census 2001 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 16 3 Local Economic Assessment

3.3.3. The detailed travel to work patterns The implication of this for South confirms that it is the dominance of the Gloucestershire residents and businesses major employment areas particularly within is that a lot of people who live in South the wider Bristol area which binds the area Gloucestershire will work and carry out daily together, particularly the jobs in the Bristol activities in Bristol and visa versa. Central area and in the North Fringe of Bristol. These are major attractors for the 3.3.7. Relationships between South workforces of such towns as Weston Super Gloucestershire and other surrounding Mare, Clevedon, Yatton, Yate and Chipping areas which are not part of the WoE LEP Sodbury, and Thornbury in the former such as Gloucestershire and Wiltshire are Avon area. Whilst this influence noticeably not so strong, but the proximity of South weakens to the east of Keynsham towards Gloucestershire to the M4 and M5 corridors Bath, where the latter begins to dominate, means that there are opportunities for the North Fringe of Bristol and Bristol linking to other larger economic areas such Central area remain significant workplace as the cities of Gloucester and Swindon. destinations.

3.3.4. A Housing Market Area is a geographical area which is relatively self–contained in terms of reflecting people’s choice of location for a new home. The significance of these two employment centres also extends beyond the Strategic Housing Market Area (SHMA) itself reflecting the existence of good motorway and rail links to these centres. So there are significant flows of residents from such areas as North Wiltshire in the east, Stroud in the north, and Monmouthshire, Newport and Cardiff in the west, and Sedgemoor District in the south, where these rail/motorway links are relatively easily accessible.

3.3.5. Service markets can be used to map the spatial area from which users of goods and services are drawn. Although mobility rates South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | have increased considerably, the principle that people access services at their nearest location still largely holds.

3.3.6. Local transport policy is best considered at the scale of FEMAs, for example, due to the close proximity of South Gloucestershire to the large urban area of Bristol there is a lot of movement and interconnectivity between the two council areas. Therefore it is recognised that there is substantial movement between the two localities.

17 4

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4.1. Strengths 4.1.4. Education: South Gloucestershire has a prestigious higher and further education 4.1.1. High Number of Jobs31: South sector including the University of the West Gloucestershire has more jobs (153,000) of England and Filton College. than economically active population (139,200). This attracts a highly skilled workforce from across the WoE Functional 4.2. Challenges Economic Market Area (FEMA) and further 4.2.1. Lower than Average Attainment of afield. The number of jobs in South NVQ Level 4+33: 27.1% (44,800) of the Gloucestershire is predicted to grow from population of South Gloucestershire have 153,000 jobs in 2010 to 181,800 jobs in achieved qualifications of NVQ4+ this is 2030. lower than all three other authorities in the West of England. Bristol (35.1%), BANES, 4.1.2. High Employment32: The employment rate (35.3%) and North Somerset (30.2%). for South Gloucestershire is 77.4%. This is higher than the average for the South West 4.2.2. High Public Sector Employment: There (73.7%) and the UK (70.3%). The business is expected to be up to 500,000 job losses service sector is the largest contributor

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local in the public sector in the UK over the next to employment (33,000/21.7% of total four years. This will adversely affect the employment in South Gloucestershire). economy of South Gloucestershire which has 27,100 public sector jobs. The extent 4.1.3. Low Unemployment: 5.6% (7,800) of of job losses in South Gloucestershire South Gloucestershire’s economically active is currently unclear and the LEA should population are unemployed. This is lower be updated when the exact number and than both the average in the South West distribution of job losses become clear. (6.3%) and England (7.9%). 4.2.3. Ageing Population: South Gloucestershire • Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA): 1.8% has an ageing population, with people (3,120) people claim Job Seeker’s aged over 85 being the fastest growing age Allowance. This compares to an group. This, coupled with the substantial average of 6.3% of the economically growth in new housing, means there will active population unemployed in the be increased demand on both health and WoE sub–region and 7% nationally. social care services. • Incapacity Benefit (IB): 4.0% (6,840) 4.2.4. Priority Neighbourhoods: These are people claim incapacity benefit. This is 6 neighbourhoods of relatively greater lower than the average in the South West disadvantage that will need continued (5.9%) and England (6.3%). assistance to raise their standard of living to the levels experienced by less • Disability Living Allowance (DLA): disadvantaged neighbourhoods. 0.9% (1,450) people claim disability living allowance in South Gloucestershire. This is broadly consistent with the South 4.3. Opportunities West and England which both have a DLA rate of 1.0%. 4.3.1. Generating Private Sector Jobs: The Local Enterprise Partnership should facilitate growth in the private sector and absorb some of the effects of redundancies made in the public sector.

31 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 32 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 18 33 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 4 Local Economic Assessment

4.3.2. Investment in Further and Higher Population Area sq. Persons Education: Working in partnership with (000s) mile per sq. mile higher educations institutes will encourage 309 328 growth in the skills and expertise required S. Glos 262.2 (497km) (528km) by employers in the key value sectors of South Gloucestershire. 14,812 136 S. West 5,231.2 (23,837km) (219km) 4.4. Demographics 80,953 247 England 51,809.7 (130,281km) (398km) 4.4.1. The total population of South Gloucestershire is 262,200 (261,800). This Figure 5: Population by Area makes it the 2nd largest population in the Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates 2009 / ONS Census 2001 South West region after Bristol. According to Urban Area data ONS mid year estimates the population of the district has increased by 16,300 (6.6%) Population by Age since 2001.34 4.4.6. The mean age in South Gloucestershire 4.4.2. In common with the rest of the UK, South (38.1) is below the mean age for the South Gloucestershire has an ageing population, West (40.6) and England (38.6).37 Moreover, with people aged over 85 being the fastest South Gloucestershire has the 3rd highest growing age group. This, coupled with percentage of children among the 16 SW the substantial growth in new housing, unitary and county authorities. It has the means there will be increased demand 6th highest percentage of working age on both health and social care services. people and the 4th lowest percentage of Demographic trends showing an ageing older people. population, increases the demand for smaller size housing, a significant 4.4.7. The age profile of South Gloucestershire proportion of which will need to be shows that 65.1% (170,700 people) of accessible. people are aged between 16–64. Whereas, the national average is 65% and 63% in the Population by Area South West. 38

4.4.3. The population of South Gloucestershire South Gloucestershire Population Pyramd (2009) Unitary Authority accounts for about 5% of 65+ (Males) 60+ (Females)

the total population of the South West. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | 50-64(Males) 50-59 (Females) 4.4.4. South Gloucestershire has the 4th highest 25-49 population by area of the 37 South West 16-24

unitary and district authorities. 0-15

100,000 50,000 0 50,000 4.4.5. Over two thirds of South Gloucestershire’s Number of People population about 164,000 live in urban Figure 6: Resident Population Estimates by Broad Age Band areas that are part of the ‘Bristol Urban Source: ONS Mid–2009 Forecast Area’. 36

34 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 35 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ 36 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/census2001.asp 19 37 http://www.gosw.gov.uk/497666/docs/220636/309014/sglosstatbrf 38 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 4

4. People: Workforce and Skills

Population Forecast 4.4.9. Oxford Economics (2010) however, has predicted a lower population forecast at 4.4.8. The population of South Gloucestershire 293,300 (weaker growth forecast), 304,600 is anticipated to increase significantly up (central growth forecast), and 315,400 to 2033. There are a number of reasons (stronger growth forecast).40 All of the for this including an ageing population Oxford Economic predictions are lower and in-migration. The Office for National than those anticipated by the ONS but both Statistics (ONS) has published 2008 based predict a substantial population growth. sub-national population projections for local authorities in England, which give an Year 2010 2020 2030 indication of future trends in population Total population (000) for the 25 year period from 2008 to 261.8 278.3 293.3 2033. By 2033 the population of South (weaker forecast) Total population (000) Gloucestershire is projected to increase 261.8 283.3 304.6 to 333,800, a percentage change of (central forecast) 28.2% from the base in 2008. For South Total population (000) 261.8 288.3 315.4 Gloucestershire the age group with the (stronger forecast) greatest projected percentage change in Local Economic Assessment Economic Local population is Pension Age (62.9%).39 Figure 9: Oxford Economics – Population Forecast (2010) Source: Oxford Economics Population projections (2008–based), 2008–2033 4.4.10. Over the next twenty years the proportion 400.0 All ages 350.0 of the total population that is economically 300.0 250.0 active is likely to remain fairly constant with 200.0 150.0 a predicted 1% rise in the proportion of 100.0 50.0 people whom are deemed of economically People (thousands) 0.0 active age in South Gloucestershire. The 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 population that is economically active in Year 2010 (164,900) is likely to increase to about Figure 7: 2008–based Population Projections 187,500 people in 2030. The population is Source: Subnational Population Projections, Office for also likely to increase from 262,000 (2010) National Statistics to 304,600 in 2030.41

Socio–Economic Classification 2018 2028 2033 S. Glos All Persons 289 319.7 333.8 4.4.11. Socio–economic classification provides 0–15 Years 52 58.6 60.2 an indication of socio–economic position, based on occupation. The majority of Working age 176.3 187.1 193.2 workers in South Gloucestershire are categorised as lower managerial and Pension Age 60.7 74 80.3 professional occupations.42 S. West All Persons 5647.3 6113.6 6321.5 England All Persons 55252 59051 60715

Figure 8: 2008–based Population Projections by Broad Age Group Source: Sub national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

39 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=997 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 40  http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ 20 41 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 42 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 4 Local Economic Assessment

Social–economic classification (ONS 2001) Employment Rate

4.01 Large employers and higher 15.44 5.89 managerial occupations 4.5.2. In January 2009 to December 2009, the Higher professional occupations employment rate for the resident population Lower managerial and (16–64) in South Gloucestershire was 5.08 professional occupations 0.39 Intermediate occupations 79.7% which was greater than that for the 20.95 1.09 Small employers and own account workers South West region (74.2%) and greater 8.21 Lower supervisory and technical occupations than England’s average rate (70.9%). In Semi-routine occupations Routine occupations April 2009 to March 2010, the employment Never worked rate for the resident population in South 11.94 12.54 Long-term unemployed Full-time students Gloucestershire had decreased from the Not classifiable for other 7.61 6.85 reasons previous year to 77.4%. The employment rate for South Gloucestershire decreased Figure 10: Socio-Economic Classification (%) also in the South West (73.7%) and Great Source: ONS 2008 Britain (70.3%).43

4.5.3. However, the percentage change between 4.5. Employment and Unemployment 2009 and 2010 for South Gloucestershire was greater with a drop of 2.3% in the rate 4.5.1. The following table is a summary of of employment. This compared to a drop of employment for South Gloucestershire, 0.5% in the South West region and 0.6% in South West and Great Britain. England.44

S. Great S. Glos West Britain 2009 2010 % change (Number) (%) (%) (%) S. Glos 79.7 77.4 –2.3 Economically S. West 74.2 73.7 –0.5 † 140,400 82.8 78.4 76.4 active England 70.9 70.3 –0.6 In employment† 135,100 79.7 73.4 70.4 Figure 12: Employment Rate Change 2009/2010 Employees† 121,500 72.2 62.7 60.9 Source: 2009 figures derived from ONS local profiles and † Self employed 13,100 7.2 10.3 9 2010 figure derived from NOMISweb. Unemployed 7,30 0 5.1 6.0 7.0 (model–based)§ Unemployment Rate South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Figure 11: Summary of Employment 4.5.4. Two fifths of respondents to the South Source: ONS Annual population survey (July 2009-June Gloucestershire business survey plan to 2010) recruit new staff in the next 2 years and two † numbers are for those aged 16 and over, % are for those fifths do not. aged 16–64 § numbers and % are for those aged 16 and over. % is a proportion of economically active

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4. People: Workforce and Skills

4.5.5. Unemployment as stated by the 2009 2010 % change International Labour Organisation (ILO)45 can be defined as people who are not S. Glos 5.4 5.6 0.2 in employment, want a job, have actively S. West 6.2 6.3 0.1 sought work in the previous four weeks and England 7.7 7.9 0.2 are available to start work within the next fortnight, or, out of work and have accepted Figure 14: Unemployment Rate a job which they are waiting to start in Source: 2009 figures derived from the ONS local profiles and the next fortnight. In the UK this includes 2010 figures derived from NOMISweb. people aged 16 years and above. Job Density S. N. Bristol BANES WoE Glos Somerset 4.5.8. In 2008 there were 153,000 jobs in South Number Gloucestershire. The ratio between total of 7,30 0 18,400 5,500 6,300 36,100 numbers of jobs to population aged 16–64 people in South Gloucestershire is 0.90 compared % 5.1% 7.9% 5.6% 5.7% 6.3% to 0.82 in the South West and 0.79 in Great

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Britain as a whole. However, there were Figure 13: Unemployed as a Percentage of the Economically 141,600 economically active.48 Active Source: ONS Annual Population Survey July 2009- June 2010 Job density (2004–2008)

4.5.6. In South Gloucestershire, the 0.95 unemployment rate for January 2009 0.9 to December 2009 was 5.4% of the S. Glos 0.85 population aged 16–64. For the same S.West 0.8 year, the unemployment rate for South England 0.75 Gloucestershire was not significantly 0.7 different from the rate for the South West population aged 16-64) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Density (ratio of total jobs to region (6.2%). The unemployment rate for Year South Gloucestershire for January 2009 to Figure 15: Job Density Graph Source: ONS December 2009 was less than the average rate in England (7.7%).46 4.5.9. South Gloucestershire has a high density of jobs and consequently there is a large 4.5.7. From April 2009 to March 2010 commuting workforce that lives outside of unemployment had risen from the previous South Gloucestershire and commute into year by 0.2% to 5.6% (7,800). For the same the area for work. This could be attributed year, the unemployment rate for South to education attainment in the area being Gloucestershire was again not significantly lower than average. different from the rate for the South West region. The unemployment rate for South 2010 2020 2030 Gloucestershire in March 2010 remained less than the average in England (7.9%). Weaker (000) 152.3 168.1 174.9 Over the 2009/2010 period, unemployment Central (000) 152.1 170.6 181.8 had risen slightly in South Gloucestershire, Stronger (000) 153.5 178.0 193.0 largely in line with the picture in the South West and England. 47 Figure 16: Total Employment Jobs Source: Oxford Economics (2010)

45 http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm#2 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 46 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 22 47 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx 4 Local Economic Assessment

Employment by Industry Employment Support Allowance (ESA) are to be replaced by a “universal credit”.50 This 4.5.10. By breaking down employee jobs credit will roll all existing allowances into one by industry it is evident that Public simplified allowance. The new system will administration, education and health is the also mean that claimants moving into work biggest employer in South Gloucestershire will keep more of their income than now, followed by Banking, finance and insurance. but face losing their benefits for up to three months if a job offer is refused. Employee jobs by industry

600, 0.5% JSA Claimant Count 5,600, 4% 1,900, 1% 15,800, 12% 4.6.3. Jobseeker’s allowance is a form of Agriculture and fishing unemployment benefit that is paid by the 38,600, 29% 11,600, 9% Energy and water Manufacturing government to people who are unemployed Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants and seeking work. South Gloucestershire Transport and communications has a below average number of people out Banking, finance and insurance 24,500, 18% Public admin. education and health of work and on benefits. In October 2010 Other services 3,120 (1.8%) of South Gloucestershire’s 22,300, 17% 13,900, 10% population claim Job Seekers Allowance. This compares to 2.4% in the South West Figure 17: Employment by industry in South Gloucestershire region and 3.6% nationally.48 (Jul 09- Jun 10) Source: NOMIS Annual Population Survey S. N. Bristol BANES WoE Glos Somerset 4.6. Welfare and Worklessness Number of JSA 3,120 10,420 2,129 2,626 18, 295 4.6.1. Worklessness is used to describe those claimants who are economically inactive. The economically inactive are people of working % of JSA claimants 1.8% 3.4% 1.8% 2.0% 2.25% age who are not working, not in full–time as a % of education or training and are not actively population seeking work. The UK has one of the highest rates of households without any Figure 18: JSA Claimant Count in the West of England adults in employment out of the six largest Source: NOMIS (October 2010) European economies. Almost one in eight households in the UK is workless, putting 4.6.4. South Gloucestershire has a relatively South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | the country ahead of Spain, France, Italy, low level of resident population claiming Germany and Holland in the worklessness JSA. The latest figures available show that rankings. JSA claimants amounted to 1.8% of South Gloucestershire’s working age population. 4.6.2. The welfare system is currently undergoing This is equal to that of Bath and North East a huge period of reform. The outcome Somerset and lower than Bristol (3.4%) of changes to the welfare system is yet and North Somerset (2.0%). The national to be realised but is likely to go through average is 3.5%. substantial change over the coming years. Consequently, it is important that this LEA is updated as proposals are implemented and when the outcome is made apparent. The current allowances including JSA and

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JSA and Duration51 JSA and Age52

Percentage of job seekers allowance claimants claiming Number of job seekers allowance claimants aged 24 for over 12 months and under in South Gloucestershire

20 1,600 18 16.9 1,400 16 1,190 1,160 1,120 14 13.1 1,200 1,075 965 995 965 12 12.6 1,000 875 905 910 900 10 8 800 6 Claimant rate (%) 600 4

JS A 400 2 Claimants aged under 24 0 200 JS A 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 March 2009 August 2009 March 2010 August 2010 January 2009February 2009 October 2009 January 2010February 2010 October 2010 2008 2009 2010 December 2008 September 2009 November 2009December 2009 September 2010 November 2010

Great Britain South Glos West of England Figure 21: Figure 21: JSA claimants aged 24 and under Figure 19: JSA claimants claiming for over 12 Months Source: ONS Source: ONS (2010)

Number of job seekers allowance claimants aged 25 4.6.5. Figure 19 shows the number of people and over in South Gloucestershire on JSA for over 12 months. Between

2,500

October 2007 and March 2009 South 1,885 1,895 1,810 1,840 1,800 2,000 1,700 1,625 1,605 1,615 1,630 1,625 Gloucestershire experienced a steady 1,500 1,000 reduction in the number of people claiming 500 0 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local January February March April May June July August September October November December

JSA. This mirrored the sub-regional and 2008 2009 2010 national picture. The number of people Figure 22: JSA claimants aged 25 and over claiming JSA for over 12 months remained Source: ONS comparatively low for the first half of 2009 before rising steadily up to and including 4.6.7. Figure 21 depicts the number of JSA October 2010. claimants aged 24 and under and figure 22 shows the number of JSA claimants aged 25 Percentage of job seekers allowance claimants claiming and over. By making a comparison between for over 6 months the two graphs it is evident that the majority

45 40 of JSA claimants are aged 24 under. 35 33.1 30 29.4 25 27.7 20 15 Claimant rate (%) 10

JS A 5 Number of job seekers allowance claimants aged 50 0 and over claiming for over 6 months April 2008May 2008June 2008July 2008 April 2009May 2009June 2009July 2009 April 2010May 2010June 2010July 2010 March 2008 August 2008 March 2009 August 2009 March 2010 August 2010 JanuaryFebruary 2008 2008 October 2008 JanuaryFebruary 2009 2009 October 2009 JanuaryFebruary 2010 2010 October 2010 December 2007 September 2008November December 2008 2008 September 2009November December 2009 2009 September 2010November 2010

Great Britain South Glos West of England 800 700 640 615 590 610 580 600 520 515 500 505 505 490 Figure 20: JSA claimants claiming for over 6 months 500 400 300 200

Source: ONS (2010) Claimants aged over 50 100

JS A 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December

2008 2009 2010 4.6.6. In August, 31.6% of claimants in South Figure 23: JSA claimants aged 50+ Gloucestershire were claiming for over 6 Source: ONS months, and 13.3% claiming for over 12 months. The residual claimant count does 4.6.8. Figure 23 shows the number of JSA however continue to shift towards longer– claimants aged 50 and over. In August term unemployment. This situation is the 2010 there were 195 JSA claimants aged 50 same across the South West region. In and over and claiming for over 6 months. South Gloucestershire, 29.9% of claimants This was lower than the same month in are aged 18–24 years, 53.2% are 25–49 the previous year (210). However 2009 years and 16.6% are over 50 years. This and 2010 have seen a significant rise in pattern is consistent with the South West claimants compared with 2007 and 2008. and National picture.

51 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.aspx South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 52 https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/reports/lmp/la/2038431896/report.asp 24 4 Local Economic Assessment

Job Centre Plus Incapacity Other Disability Benefits Income Living 4.6.9. The number of unfilled Jobcentre Plus Related Allowance vacancies in South Gloucestershire in Benefits October 2010 was 1,755. This was up from South (4.0%) (0.3%) 430 (0.9%) 1,591 in August 2010. January 2009 saw Gloucestershire 6,840 1,450 very low numbers of unfilled Jobcentre Plus South West (5.9%) (0.4%) (1.0%) vacancies at 864. Since January 2009 194,380 14,640 31,970 the number of vacancies has experienced England (6.3%) (0.5%) (1.0%) periods of peak and troughs but overall 2,132,880 164,720 321,360 there have been steady increases in the number of vacancies up to October 2010. Figure 25: Benefit Claimants Source: Working Age Client Group, Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) through Nomis South South Great Glos West Britain Unfilled Jobcentre Plus 1,755 28,185 321,987 4.7. Economic Exclusion vacancies (numbers) JSA claimants per 1.8 2.7 4.2 4.7.1. The following section will look at issues of unfilled Unfilled economic exclusion including profiles on Jobcentre Plus vacancy the designated priority neighbourhoods.

Figure 24: Unfilled Jobcentre Plus Vacancies 4.7.2. South Gloucestershire, as a whole, Source: NOMIS (October 2010) is economically prosperous with low unemployment and a high employment Other Benefits growth rate. This tends to disguise the fact that there are areas in South 4.5.20. South Gloucestershire has a smaller Gloucestershire and groups of people who proportion of people claiming benefits are not sharing the benefits of economic than the South West and England. In development. In addition this has led to May 2010 there were 15,260 people (8.9% the need for migrant workers in specific of the working age population in South employment sectors which bring both Gloucestershire) on benefits. This is lower benefits and social implications. than the picture in the South West (12.1%) and in Great Britain (14.7%). The largest 4.7.3. Staple Hill and King Chase wards have

proportion of benefits claimants are those the highest unemployment rates in South South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | on incapacity benefit. 4% of the working Gloucestershire. Over the last five years the age population claim incapacity benefits Kingswood area has been particularly hard as opposed to 5.9% in the South West and hit with some 1,000 job losses resulting 6.3% nationally.53 from the closure and downscaling of a number of major manufacturing companies including UK Safety, Intier Automotive, Hibernia Brands and Kleeneze. Throughout Kingswood and Staple Hill local jobs are also being lost as older industrial sites are developed for housing; this trend is likely to continue.

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4.8. Priority Neighbourhoods South Gloucestershire has one neighbourhood in the most deprived 20% 4.8.1. South Gloucestershire has 6 across all indicators in the Multiple Indices neighbourhoods of relative disadvantage of Deprivation. in Cadbury Heath, Filton, Kingswood, Patchway, Staple Hill and Yate & Dodington. 4.8.3. Cadbury Heath is a relatively small area These neighbourhoods have areas that made up of predominantly post war social are in the most deprived 20% nationally for housing located in Park Wall Ward. It is measures across all indicators (Indices of flanked on sides by neighbourhoods made Multiple Deprivation, 2007). up primarily of owner –occupiers.

Kingswood 54 Dodington Staple Hill Community Profile : Patchway Cadbury Cadbury Yate & & Yate Heath Filton • It has a population of approximately Criteria 3000 and a mix of ethnicity and age groups consistent with the rest of South IMD 1 Gloucestershire apart from a below Income 1 1 average number of 45 – 64 year olds Local Economic Assessment Economic Local (19.7% compared to 24.6% across South Employment 1 Gloucestershire). Education, Skills & 1 3 3 1 2 • 66% of the total population of Cadbury Training Heath are of working age and 64% of the Crime 3 4 1 1 working age population are economically active. Health & 1 Disability • For the 16–24 age group Jobseekers Living 1 Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort in the Environment Cadbury Heath area is 43%, accounting for Barriers to two fifths of all claims; Parkwall ward and Housing South Gloucestershire levels are 36% and Income & 33% respectively. 1 1 1 Children • In 2001 the percentage of adults with no Income & Older 1 1 qualifications in Cadbury Heath itself was People significantly high (41.5%) compared to the South Gloucestershire average (23.7%) Figure 26: The number of neighbourhoods in the bottom 20% nationally for deprivation indicators • Cadbury Heath includes 1 neighbourhood Source: South Gloucestershire Council (IMD, 2007) in the most deprived 20% nationally for education, skills and training 4.8.2. In South Gloucestershire 7 neighbourhoods rank in the 20% most deprived areas 4.8.4. Filton is an area of terraced and semi nationally for income deprivation. South detached housing dating mainly from Gloucestershire has 9 neighbourhoods the1930s–50s built around the important that rank in the most deprived 20% areas in aerospace industries associated with terms of education, skills and training. Filton Airfield.

South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 26 4 Local Economic Assessment

Community Profile55: Originally part of the Kingswood Forest, the area prospered on the strength of • The population of approximately 10,000 coal mining and related manufacturing (2001 Census: 9861) has a mix of ethnicity industries. Housing is predominantly and age groups consistent with the rest 19th Century terraces and 20th Century of South Gloucestershire apart from an suburban houses. More recently there above average number of 16–24 year has been a growth in accommodation olds (12.6% compared to 9.6% across consisting of flats in and around the town South Gloucestershire) and those aged centre. 75 + (10.1% compared to the South Gloucestershire Average of 6.3%). Community Profile56:

• Filton is also home to major industries and • The population of approximately 31,000 employers such as Airbus and Rolls Royce (2001 Census).

• Although the new Filton Northfield site • 73% of the total population are of working is mostly in Patchway, the development age in both Kings Chase ward and South will have an effect on the town. The site Gloucestershire comprises approximately 81.25 hectares of brownfield land and it will be a significant • 69% of the working age population are mixed–use development in the area. economically active in Kings Chase ward The proposed scheme would include compared to 73% for South Gloucestershire approximately 2,200 new homes with a full as a whole range of supporting community and leisure facilities, together with some 14 hectares of • The 16–24 age group Jobseekers mixed employment development. Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort in the Kings Chase ward and South • 72% of the total population are of working Gloucestershire levels are 39% and 33% age in the ward compared with 73% in respectively (2009) South Gloucestershire • In 2001 the percentage of residents in the • 70% of the working age population ward of Kings Chase with no qualifications are economically active in Filton Ward (35.6%) was significantly high compared to compared with South Gloucestershire as a the South Gloucestershire Average (23.7%). whole (73%). • Kingswood includes 3 neighbourhoods South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | • The 16–24 age group Jobseekers in the most deprived 20% nationally for Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort in the ward education, skills and training and 2 for and South Gloucestershire levels are 29% income. and 33% respectively • In 2001 figures for qualification levels in Filton ward and South Gloucestershire are similar.

4.8.5. Kingswood is located to the east of the urban area of Bristol. It comprises three wards: Kings Chase and Rodway, north of the A420, and Woodstock to the south.

54 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/_Resources/Publications/COS/09/0400/COS-09-0324 55 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/_Resources/Publications/COS/09/0400/COS-09-0325 27 4

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4.8.6. Patchway is an area of predominantly post 4.8.7. Staple Hill developed around the mining war housing to the north of Filton Airfield industry and is predominantly 19th and and to the west of the A38 with Stoke Lodge early to mid 20th century terraced housing. to the east. The regional shopping centre The main retail area is along Staple Hill High and retail parks at The Mall are adjacent to Street and is classed as a town centre. the area to the north. Community Profile58: Community Profile57: • Staple Hill has a population of • The population of approximately 9000 approximately 7,000 (2001 Census: 6,823) (2001 Census: 8804) but an above and has an above average number of average number of 16–24 year olds elderly people over 75 (10.5% compared to (11.2% compared to 9.6% across South 6.3% across South Gloucestershire). Gloucestershire). • 69% of the total population are of working • 74% of the total population are of working age in the ward compared with 73% in age in the ward compared to in South South Gloucestershire as a whole. Gloucestershire (73%). Local Economic Assessment Economic Local • 61% of the working age population are • 71% of the working age population are economically active compared to South economically active compared to South Gloucestershire levels (73%) Gloucestershire (73%) levels • There are 11,143 registered businesses in • In 2001 the percentage of residents in the region of South Gloucestershire and Patchway ward with no qualifications 668 (6%) are registered to the Staple Hill was high (30.7%) compared to the South ward Gloucestershire average (23.7%) • The 16–24 age group Jobseekers • The 16–24 age group Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort in the ward Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort in the ward and South Gloucestershire levels are 37% and South Gloucestershire levels are 30% and 33% respectively (2009) and 33% respectively. • In 2001 the percentage in Staple Hill for • Includes 3 neighbourhoods in the 20% most adults with no qualifications was 31.8% deprived nationally for education, skills and compared with the South Gloucestershire training and 1 for income. figure of 23.7%. There is a lower percentage of residents with higher qualifications.

• Includes 1 neighbourhood that appears in the majority of Indices of Multiple Deprivation indicators which therefore makes it the most deprived area in South Gloucestershire.

56 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/_Resources/Publications/COS/09/0400/COS-09-0327 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 57 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/_Resources/Publications/COS/09/0400/COS-09-0328 28 4 Local Economic Assessment

4.8.8. Yate and Dodington. Yate with Dodington is a bustling, lively and developing town that has undergone several transformations over the centuries. The population of Yate itself more than quadrupled between 1965 and 2000 from five to over twenty thousand people. The extensive shopping centre is a draw not only for local residents but also for people from other parts of South Gloucestershire. It stands alongside the historical centre of the town, St Mary’s Church, the Heritage Centre and older developments along Station Road.

Community Profile59:

• 72% of the total population are of working age, the same level as for South Gloucestershire as a whole

• 73% of the working age population are economically active, the same level as for South Gloucestershire as a whole

• There are 11,143 registered businesses in the region of South Gloucestershire and 660 are registered as being in Yate.

• The 16–24 age group Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimant cohort for the ward is 35%, slightly higher than the South Gloucestershire figure of 33%.

• Yate has 2 neighbourhoods in the 20% most deprived for education, skills and training. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment |

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4. People: Workforce and Skills

4.9. Educational and Skills Base 4.9.2. It is important to raise the level of skills in South Gloucestershire and meet the NVQ 4+ 3+ 2+ 1+ present and future skill needs of employers. Over a fifth of the economically active S.Glos (000) 44.8 81.7 113.8 140.1 population of South Gloucestershire have (%) 27.1 49.4 68.8 84.6 no qualifications or a qualification at NVQ level 1 which is significantly higher than the Bristol (000) 103.9 157.3 199.5 242.6 West of England.59 (%) 35.1 53.1 67.4 82.0 BANES (000) 42.5 67.0 86.8 102.0 4.9.3. Higher Education Institutes are major employers in many areas across the South (%) 35.3 55.6 72.0 84.7 West and they are inextricably linked to N.Somerset (000) 38.8 68.3 90.7 110.5 the public sector and therefore vulnerable (%) 30.2 53.2 70.6 86.0 to cuts to the public sector purse. South Gloucestershire is home to the University WoE (000) 230.0 374.3 490.8 595.2 of the West of England. Although specific (%) 31.9 52.8 69.7 84.3 details of cuts are not yet known, concern has been expressed in the media about

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Figure 27: NVQ Level Attainment the reduction in student numbers, the Source: NOMIS (December 2009) size of cuts that might be made, and the effect that this will have on staff numbers, 4.9.1. There are a number of implications for financial viability and the international skills and training for 16-19 year olds. It competitiveness of the UK’s HE sector. is becoming increasingly important that the level of qualification attainment is 4.9.4. The adult population in South increased. The knowledge economy Gloucestershire has a lower than average requires a more highly skilled workforce attainment of NVQ level 4 and above and there is pressure for the UK population qualifications, 27.1% achieved an NVQ4 to become more highly skilled in order to level and above compared to 29.9% compete against emerging countries from nationally. abroad. This is of particular importance in a global economy, whereby, a better The National Employers Skills Survey 2009 skilled workforce is more adaptable and productive, and to enable better response 4.9.5. The National Employers Skills Survey63 to the global challenges faced such as provides a detailed analysis of the extent increased competition and advancements and nature of employers’ recruitment in technology. Investment in skills and problems, skills gaps and training activity. training is particularly important at the Headlines: current time with the effects of the recent economic recession. Investment can • In the past year, 29% of employers in South be beneficial to both the employee and Gloucestershire have taken on leavers the employer. The employee is likely to direct from school, college or university. benefit from enhanced career opportunities This figure is well above the regional while employers benefit from improved and national averages (24% and 23% productivity. respectively).

59 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/_Resources/Publications/COS/10/0200/COS-10-0103 South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 63 http://www.ukces.org.uk/tags/report/national-employer-skills-survey-for-england-2009-key-findings-report 30 4 Local Economic Assessment

• As elsewhere, employers’ strongest • Most of those who were likely to offer preference is for young people who have Apprenticeships to younger people remained in education after the age of 16. (under 25) but not to people over 25 and Whereas 8% of employers have taken on 16 were unable to give any reason for their year olds, this rises to 12% for 17–18 year preference. olds and 13% for graduates. • The recession has had a significant effect • Employers in the public sector are most on the numbers of employers who have likely to recruit people aged under 24 from taken on Apprentices and trainees, with education and manufacturing the least. 8% more employers having decreased recruitment than have increased it. This • Those who had taken on recruits direct decrease is twice that of the region, but in from education were asked to assess the line with the data for England. work readiness of those recruits. Most were positive, with 65% of employers considering • The effect on recruitment of young people that their 16 year old school leavers were under 24 to their first job has been less very well or well prepared rising to 74% for significant, and there has been a 2% net 17/18 year olds and 85% among employers decrease in employers recruiting young of graduates. people to their first job.

• The minorities who were dissatisfied were 4.9.6. In addition to the results of the National most likely to be concerned that their Employers Skill Survey 2009 the recruits lacked work experience and had a results of South Gloucestershire’s poor attitude and/or motivation. business survey found that nearly three quarters of businesses do not offer • 94% of employers were aware of apprenticeships. apprenticeships and 7% either offered or had current Apprenticeships, a little below the level of involvement in the South West and nationally. • Overall, the survey estimates that employers in South Gloucestershire had or offered 809 apprenticeships in 2009.

• Asked as to whether it was likely that they would offer apprenticeships over South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | the coming year, employers in South Gloucestershire were more negative than employers elsewhere. 6% thought it very or quite likely that they would offer a 16–18 year old Apprenticeship compared 11% in England; 8% considered it likely that they would offer Apprenticeships to 19–24 year olds, almost half the national average (14%); and 6% were likely to offer adult Apprenticeships to the over 25s, again, well below the national average of 12%.

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4. People: Workforce and Skills

4.10. n ot in Education, Employment or most notably to the rest of the South West, but also to neighbouring regions of Wales Training (NEET) and the South East. 4.10.1. The percentage of young people aged 4.11.3. Higher Education Careers Service Unit’s 16–18 years not in education, employment Graduate Study, key findings: or training in South Gloucestershire has fallen since last year and is lower than the • The largest group of graduates employed in England average. the region six months after graduating were those with no prior direct connection to the South Gloucestershire 3.5% region North Somerset 3.9% • The incoming graduates were concentrated BANES 3.3% in roles in medicine, engineering and Bristol 7.4% business and finance South West 4.9% • Those graduates who did stay within the England 5.9% region after finishing their degree were Local Economic Assessment Economic Local often employed in the public sector, and Figure 28: Population Not in Education, Employment, or particularly in nursing and to a lesser extent, Training social work. This does mean this group Source: Connexions (December 2010) may be vulnerable to expected forthcoming cuts in public sector employment 4.10.2. The number and percentage of young people aged 16–18 years not in education, • The public sector was one of the few employment or training in South employers that continued to recruit new Gloucestershire has fallen since last year graduates, but this could be set to change and is lower than the England average. as the Government’s spending cuts come There were 346 young people who were in to force. NEET in South Gloucestershire in July which is 5.2% of the cohort (this compares to 5.8% last year and 7.2% in England).64 University of the West of England % grad–uates working or 90 4.11. Graduate Retention and Migration further study % students from state 4.11.1. The WoE is home to four leading 89 universities; University of Bristol, University schools & colleges % Young people from target of the West of England, Bath University 28 and Bath Spa University. These higher socio–economic groups education institutions play an important % Non–UK domiciled 8 role in supplying employers with a highly students skilled workforce. It is therefore important % Under–graduates 80 to understand the level of graduate retention All Higher Educat–ion and migration in the sub–region. 31,700 students 4.11.2. According to the Higher Education Career Figure 29: Characteristics of HE Institutes in the SW Service Unit the WoE is an effective exporter Source: South West Observatory (2008) of graduates to other regional economies,

64 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/BEAC96DA-9AC9-48F5-9D66-1D1446EE79CD/0/COS100188.pdf South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 32 4 Local Economic Assessment

University of the West of England Graduate Survey

4.11.4. 6157 graduates of the University of the West of England were surveyed 6 months after graduation. The university received an 85.1% response rate.

Key Findings:

• The survey showed that the average salary for males graduating from a first degree in 2009 was £19,135 and £18,604 for women. Males graduating from a postgraduate degree on average had a salary of £22,939 and females on average earned £21,119. The average salary figures are based on a smaller proportion of respondents as not all respondents give details of their salary and the data is restricted to those working in the UK in full time work.

• Out of the people surveyed the number of leavers employed in South Gloucestershire amounted to 551 persons (10%). This is a relatively small percentage of graduate retention. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment |

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5. Business: Enterprise and Innovation

5.1. Strengths 5.5.2. Rural and Town Centre Enterprise: Town centres such as Chipping Sodbury and 5.1.1. Diverse Economy: The economy of South Thornbury often lose out on investment and Gloucestershire is driven by a diversity of development to large areas of employment well–represented sectors which includes a land such as Severnside and the North mixture of key value sectors and key volume Bristol fringe. sectors.

5.1.2. Buoyant Economy65: South 5.3. Opportunities Gloucestershire has a buoyant economy. 5.3.1. Investment in the Low Carbon Economy: There are significant commercial • Total Gross Value Added (GVA): The opportunities associated with the transition total GVA for South Gloucestershire in to a low carbon economy. Relevant sectors 2010 is expected to be £6,090,000. This is include renewable and sustainable energy expected to rise to £10,542,000 by 2030. and related infrastructure (e.g, smart grids and district heating networks), and low • GVA by Sector: The business service carbon vehicles and transport infrastructure. sector is the largest contributor of GVA

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local In addition, low carbon building design to South Gloucestershire’s economy and construction is likely to benefit from (£1,267,000/20.8% of total GVA in South the major development proposed in South Gloucestershire). Gloucestershire. Such sectors could play a key role in economic recovery in South • At a West of England (WoE) Level: South Gloucestershire and increase the resilience, Gloucestershire is the second largest competitive advantage and marketability contributor of GVA in the WoE sub–region of the economy, whilst also reducing after Bristol (in 2010 expected to be greenhouse gas emissions. £10,609,000). 5.3.2. Improvement in Transport Infrastructure: • At a Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Deliverance of the proposed packages to Statistics (NUTS) 3 Level: Bath and North improved public transportation in the area East Somerset, North Somerset and South could help reduce car dependency levels Gloucestershire are the highest contributors which in turn will relieve congestion and of GVA in the South West region. enhance the productivity of the regions businesses and reduce CO emissions. 4.7.3. World Class Industries: South 2 Gloucestershire is home to a cluster of 5.3.3. Key Sector Growth: South Gloucestershire world class industries including aerospace, has the potential to facilitate growth in the defence, I.T and financial services. These key sectors and add a higher contribution to industries are expected to experience high UK plc. growth over the coming decade. 5.3.4. SPark Science Park and National 5.2. Challenges Composite Centre (NCC): This development in South Gloucestershire will 5.2.1. Climate Change: The implication of attract a number of innovative businesses climate change necessitates major changes and encourage investment. to company behaviour and attitudes, travel patterns, and building techniques.

65 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 34 5 Local Economic Assessment

5.3.5. Local Enterprise Partnership: The South Gloucestershire WoE LEP gives South Gloucestershire 5.4.5. The South Gloucestershire economy has the opportunity to work with its partners expanded rapidly over the last fifteen years, to achieve shared aims across a wider accounting for a high proportion of sub– economic area. regional growth as a result of attracting investment from outside the sub–region and from elsewhere within the West of England, 5.4. Structure of the Economy notably from Central Bristol. There are now an estimated 153,00066 jobs in South United Kingdom Gloucestershire compared with 91,000 in 5.4.1. The UK economy expanded by 0.3% during 1991. the final quarter of 2009, ending a period of 6 quarters of continuous contraction – the 5.4.6. Much of the job growth over the last fifteen longest and deepest of the post–war era. years has occurred in the North Fringe The latest data available shows that the UK area with the co-location of Ministry of economy expanded by 0.8% between July Defence procurement and equipment and September 2010. support activities at Abbey Wood, the development of the major shopping centre 5.4.2. Although the UK recession has technically at Cribbs Causeway, the relocation of ended, most commentators expect major employers from Bristol and large only weak growth during 2010, so that scale business park development. New employment may continue to decline jobs continue to be generated on business and unemployment to increase. There is parks in the North Fringe and, increasingly, also a significant risk that the marginal at Emersons Green where a 25 hectare growth recorded during 2009 Q4 could Science Park is currently being built. falter and the economy could fall back into recession again – a ‘double dip’ or 5.4.7. The buoyancy and well–being of the local W shaped recession. Consumer and economy depends on these key sectors business confidence remains fragile and and on the development of new businesses concerns over continuing weak credit in response to market demands and market conditions and, particularly, over the opportunities. There are 10,060 enterprises future course of fiscal policy could easily tip in South Gloucestershire.67 the balance leading to a renewed spell of contraction. 5.4.8. It is important that this trend continues in order to sustain economic vibrancy and the

5.4.3. Very low interest rates have allowed some South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | provision of local jobs. We also recognise UK households to save more without the growth of home working and networking massively reducing consumer expenditure. which will enable our rural communities A move towards higher rates, whilst not to make a valuable contribution to the a major short–term threat, could prompt economy. This needs to be encouraged a sustained period of weak consumer and built upon. demand, limiting growth potential. 5.4.9. South Gloucestershire’s business 5.4.4. On the other hand, most of the UK’s major survey found that ninety percent of export markets appear to be building businesses were planning to stay in South more robust and sustainable recoveries, Gloucestershire in the next 2 years. improving the prospect that export growth, supported by lower exchange rates, could contribute to a UK recovery.

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5. Business: Enterprise and Innovation

5.5. Strategic Employment Areas 5.5.6. The Filton Northfield site, owned by Bovis Homes and BAE Systems, covers 74 5.5.1. Business and employment opportunities are hectares of which 14 hectares is allocated provided in a range of sites and locations. for mixed employment use. The remainder The Council’s Core Strategy seeks to of the site is being developed as a 2,200 safeguard approximately 1350 hectares of home housing development. land identified for employment purposes. A further 130 hectares are safeguarded 5.5.7. Covering 68 hectares, Aztec West is located pending further policy reviews. There are at the junction of the M5 motorway and also a number of rural employment sites the A38. The business park was laid out in and small sites within the urban areas which the early 1980s and is now home to over provide employment opportunities. In 120 companies and provides more than addition an increasing number of jobs are 7500 jobs. Occupiers include The Royal found outside of traditional ‘employment Bank of Scotland, ST Microelectronics, areas’ for example in retail, education and The Environment Agency, Cornhill Direct other parts of the service sector. and G E Capital Equipment Finance. One significant area remains to be developed - 5.5.2. Historically the aerospace sector at Filton/ the western sector of 5.6 hectares in area Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Patchway has been a major employer. In which has planning permission for 28,500 recent years the economy has diversified to square metres of office floor space. provide a very wide range of manufacturing, warehousing, office and service sector jobs. 5.5.8. Bristol Business Park is strategically located The jobs provided employ people from at the very heart of the region's most within and outside the district and residents prominent business community, just 5 miles also have access to opportunities within north of the city centre, connections to the Bristol and the wider sub region. national motorway, train and bus networks are all situated close by. Organisations such 5.5.3. The strategic areas are probably best as Rolls-Royce Marine, Dupont, Thales, described as: Bristol North Fringe; Bristol UWE, QinetiQ and Motability Finance have East Fringe (including Emersons Green); all chosen Bristol Business Park for the Yate; Severnside; Thornbury; and the Rural unique features it offers. Areas. 5.5.9. The University of the West of England have 5.5.4. The Bristol North Fringe Strategic unveiled a £300 million master plan which Employment Area contains a number of sets out proposals for a new central plaza modern large strategic sites with a broad and performing arts centre, an energy spectrum of typologies and includes; centre, a research and enterprise park, expansion of the student village and an 5.5.5. The development of the regional shopping enhancement of sports facilities. The centre at Cribbs Causeway, the relocation of growth of the educational establishment major companies from Bristol like AXA and is likely to continue over the next 10 years Royal Mail and large scale business park contributing to continued prosperity of development have established Bristol North South Gloucestershire. The Universities’ Fringe as one of the largest employment expansion will bring jobs to the area and a areas in the South West. The relocation of growth in student numbers is likely to help the Defence Procurement Agency to Abbey plug the skills gap in the area. Wood in the late 1990s brought over 6,000 jobs to the North Fringe. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 36 5 Local Economic Assessment

5.5.10. The Bristol East Fringe Strategic 5.5.16. Within Yate, Strategic Employment Employment area includes; areas include five industrial estates occupied by almost 200 companies. 5.5.11. Kingswood which is dominated by general These are Great Western Business Park, industrial/business sites and in strategic Stover Trading Estate, Beeches Trading terms appears to have a low level of vacant Estate, Badminton Road Trading Estate land, despite the tired nature of some sites. and Westerleigh Business Park. Major employers in Yate and Chipping Sodbury 5.5.12. Prominent companies in the area of include Indesit, Smurfit Kappa, Jordan Kingswood, Warmley and Hanham include Engineering, Mead Westvaco, Sharp Knorr-Bremse and Alcan Packaging. Interpack and Hanson Quarry Products.

5.5.13. Emersons Green which is dominated by 5.5.17. The Severnside Strategic Employment vacant strategic sites identified for future area is located next to the River employment development in the South Severn to the west of the M49 and the Gloucestershire Local Plan; urban area of Bristol. Due to planning permissions granted in 1957/58 covering 5.5.14. The 54 acre SPark (Science Park) - adjacent approximately 650 hectares, the area to the Avon Ring Road at Emersons has been recognised for some years as Green, will provide 77,000 square metres a potential major employment location. of accommodation in a variety of building Regional and local planning policy sizes and specifications. The £300 million continues to support its development, science park will be comparable in size and while recognising the significant scope to the best in the UK including both constraints that affect the area by way the Warwick and the Cambridge science of flood risk, highway infrastructure, and technology parks. The universities of ecology and archaeology. The Bath, Bristol and the West of England are economic potential of Severnside will, key partners supporting this exciting new in future, be realised as a strategic project. Most of the site was acquired by location for a range of employment uses, the South West Regional Development subject to the resolution of flood risk, Agency (SWRDA) in 2004. In April 2006 environmental and infrastructure issues. SWRDA appointed Quantum Property AstraZeneca, GKN, Tesco Distribution Partnership as the private sector developer and Warburton’s are major employers in and funding partner. The Science Park has the Severnside area. avoided government spending cuts and construction work has started on the site. 5.5.18. The 87 hectare Western Approach South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Distribution Park was granted planning 5.5.15. Emerald Park, adjacent to the Avon Ring approval in 1995. Gazeley, the Road to the northeast of Bristol covers development arm of Asda Walmart, some 30 hectares. Sainsbury's occupies acquired Western Approach in June a 30,000 square metres distribution depot 2005. Occupiers include Royal on an 11 hectares site and a number Mail, Next and DSG International. of speculative industrial unit and office 'G Park Bristol' as it is now called schemes have been completed in recent has approximately 1.25 million sq ft years. Companies at Emerald Park include of warehousing occupied or under Knorr Bremse, The Mitie Group, Inbis construction. Two new distribution Engineering Consultants and the National warehouses have recently been Health Service. completed.

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5. Business: Enterprise and Innovation

5.5.19. Within Thornbury, strategic employment Name of Company Location Estimated areas include the established industrial number of estate Thornbury Industrial Estate which employees is home to over 50 companies. South Various (Main site on 9,500 Gloucestershire Badminton, Yate) 5.5.20. The rural market area is dominated Council by small traditional employment sites Ministry of Defence Stoke Gifford 8,000 meeting local needs with a bias towards Airbus UK Filton 6,500 general industrial sites, but also has the highest proportion of ‘sites for specific Rolls Royce Patchway 3,500 occupiers’. North Bristol NHS Frenchay 3,000 trust 5.5.21. With a number of very large high profile AXA Stoke Gifford 2,500 employers attention is often drawn away from the major economic contribution University of the West Frenchay 2,500 made by the 8,230 or so small and of England medium sized businesses in South Orange PCS Bradley Stoke 2,400 Gloucestershire. Small businesses are Royal Mail West of Patchway 1,200 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local particularly prominent in a number of England Mail Centre business sectors including retailing, Asda Wal–Mart Cribbs Causeway 1,000 construction and business support services. The latter sector, which Figure 30: Top 10 Major Employers by Number of Employees includes financial services, legal Source: South Gloucestershire Council 2009 services and IT services, has accounted Company information correct at time of collection and subject for much of the 100 businesses per to fluctuation annum average growth in the small business sector in recent years. 5.7. the Public Sector

5.6. major Employers National Picture: UK 5.6.1. Less than 1% of businesses in South 5.7.1. The effects of the new coalition government Gloucestershire employ more than and the proposed Decentralisation and 200 employees. However, this small Localism Bill will see a high percentage of number of employees account for over public sector job losses which in turn will 40% of employment. The top ten major increase worklessness in the area. employers (by employee numbers) in South Gloucestershire are as follows; 5.7.2. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that around 330,000 jobs will be lost in Britain’s public sector over the next four years. This is around 160,000 less than the reduction of 490,000 outlined by the June budget forecast.72 In addition to the geographical impact of public sector cuts, the demography of public sector job cuts is also important. According to ONS analysis of national public sector employment, in 2009:

72 http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/d/econ_fiscal_outlook_291110.pdf South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 38 5 Local Economic Assessment

• 65.5% of public sector workers were Local Picture: South Gloucestershire female (41.1 % of private sector workers were female) 5.7.5. As a large rural region, the South West is likely to be more badly affected by public • 32.7% of employed women worked sector cuts. However, in comparison in the public sector workers (15.1% of to other council areas, especially those employed men) located in the North of England, South Gloucestershire is likely to be more resilient • 42.5% of public sector workers were over to public sector job losses. 45 years old (36.1% of private sector workers were this age) 5.7.6. South Gloucestershire has a high proportion of administration jobs in the • 14.6% of public sector workers were long public sector. According to the South term disabled (12.8% of private sector West Observatory 19.8% (27,100) of total workers) employees have jobs in the public sector. This is marginally lower than the percentage • 29.5% of public sector workers were part of total employment identified in the South time (25.8% of private sector workers) West region (21.2%/474,600) and England (20%/ 4,619,700). • As such, large scale cuts in public sector employment will disproportionately affect women, disabled, and older workers. 5.8. Key Value Sectors 5.8.1. Key value sectors play an important role Regional Picture: South West in the economy of South Gloucestershire. Many of the jobs in these sectors require 5.7.3. The region saw the largest change in skilled professions which generally are public sector employment across the awarded higher pay thus contributing more United Kingdom over the last decade, with to the overall wealth and prosperity of South an increase of more than 100,000 jobs Gloucestershire. between 2000 and 2010 and therefore is vulnerable to any planned cuts. Although large urban centres will see greatest 5.9. Creative and Media numerical losses, small centres and peripheral areas, where private sector 5.9.1. The South West was recently identified activity is weaker, may feel the effects most. by the UK government as an exemplar region for creative industries. The report South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | 5.7.4. Public spending cuts are likely to act as “Creative Britain – New Talents for the New a significant barrier to rural economic Economy” designated the South West as recovery. According to the South West a Beacon Region of creative excellence. Observatory public sector employment Almost 90,000 people work directly in has been an important factor in protecting the creative industries sector in the South rural areas from the impacts of recession, West, with a further 55,000 people in so far. Predominantly rural areas have a related occupations, so the health of the higher proportion of public sector jobs than creative industries is crucial to the regional other areas – 33% compared to 27%.73 High economy. proportions of public sector workers are compounded by low wage rates, dependence upon benefits, and small overall workforces.

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5. Business: Enterprise and Innovation

5.9.2. 700 hours of television is produced The creative sector is however not in the South West annually, and there exclusive of these businesses and South are particular strengths around factual Gloucestershire with its proximity to Bristol broadcasting. Bristol, the largest city in the (which is home to the vast majority of region has a critical mass of production creative businesses outlined in the survey) companies including: Oscar and Bafta and the inherent over–lapping within a winning Aardman; Endemol West; Icon functional economic market means the Films; Tigress; Quickfire Media; Testimony creative sector plays a large role in the Films and RDF Television West. The BBC’s economy. Natural History Unit, based in Bristol, has produced many of the most outstanding Creative industries and media in Staff Location and world renowned television programmes South Gloucestershire of the past 50 years. Series such as Life on Earth and The Blue Planet have won RTH Group 45 Yate countless awards and made the South Create marketing 13 Wick West a centre of extraordinarily fertile Seedbrand 2 Almondsbury programme-making. The BBC’s centre of excellence has attracted a number of other Figure 31: Creative Industries in South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Natural History specialist companies and Source: http://www.swtop100.co.uk/surveys/top_100 post production houses to the South West and together they account for 25% of the global production output for this genre. 5.10. Advanced Engineering, Aerospace and Defence 5.9.3. The freeze on non–essential marketing and communications spend across the public 5.10.1. The aerospace industry is a key sector is already having an impact on the economic sector employing as it Creative Industries, a priority sector in the does some 11,000 workers in South South West, concentrated mainly in the Gloucestershire. Major projects include West of England area. This loss of business the design and manufacture of wings for compounds the difficulties felt at the high– Airbus and the design and manufacture value end of the creative sector through of military jet engines. The aerospace the recession since November/December industry has strong links within the South 2008. A large number of businesses are West and South Gloucestershire in affected across the commercial creative particular with large companies such as sector, including Digital Agencies, Media Airbus, Rolls Royce and GKN located in Production, PR, Broadcast and local media the area. and Design Communications. 5.10.2. The latest Airbus Global Market 5.9.4. There are a number of businesses located Forecast projects a demand for some in South Gloucestershire which can be 25,000 new passenger and freighter categorised within the creative industries aircraft between 2009 and 2028, driven and media industries. The SWRDA has by increased airline traffic – which compiled a list of creative industries in is expected to more than double in the South West (available at: http://www. the same time period. The growing swtop100.co.uk/surveys/top_100) There demand for Airbus’s products is likely are four of the top 100 creative businesses to continue for years to come, which located in South Gloucestershire according will have a positive impact on the Filton to the survey which are ranked by turnover. based branch of Airbus and in turn, South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 40 5 Local Economic Assessment

the economy of South Gloucestershire. business base. The deal has secured Moreover, as Airbus continues to additional equipment and facilities to prosper, there will be a positive impact accommodate the expanding workload on smaller suppliers, many of which are and to cater for anticipated volume based in South Gloucestershire and the increases as the demand for Airbus South West region. aircraft continues to grow.

5.10.3. Around 140,000 jobs are generated in 5.10.6. In October 2008, Dynamatic acquired the UK by Airbus wing work, directly Oldland CNC, a high end precision as well as indirectly through supplier engineering Company based in contracts. At Filton, over 4,500 people South Gloucestershire. It states that are employed in the design office and it is engaged in the manufacture of in business support roles such as Aerospace components and tooling. The procurement, finance and customer acquisition has provided Dynamatic with service. Core activities at Filton include a unique state–of–the–art Aeronautical the design, engineering and support for manufacturing facility possessing Airbus wings, fuel systems and landing complex 5 axis machining capabilities, gear integration. Teams also work on which is a certified supplier to Airbus systems, structures, and aerodynamics UK, Boeing, GKN Aerospace, Magellan research, development and test facilities. Aerospace, GE Aviation Systems, Lockheed Martin and Agusta Westland, 5.10.4. More than 2,000 engineers at Filton as well as the strategic locational are involved in a range of areas, advantage required for the forging of including wing integration, flight physics, strong direct relationships with leading structures and systems. Filton also is Aerospace Companies in Europe and responsible for wing assembly and Americas. equipping for the A400M multi–role airlifter, and is home to a Composites 5.10.7. GKN PLC is a global company Structures Development Centre. The employing approximately 38,200 people recent defence review (Oct 2010) in over 30 countries worldwide. With confirms that the A400M will go ahead, a plant in Severnside, GKN produces which will safeguard hundreds of jobs technology and engineering which are at at Airbus. 400 Bristol jobs are believed the heart of vehicles and aircraft from the to depend on the project and another world’s leading automotive, offhighway 1,000 (900 at Airbus and 100 at Rolls– and aerospace manufacturers. Royce) on the A400M military transport South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | plane. 5.10.8. Budget cuts to the Ministry of Defence are likely to have a substantial effect 4.10.5. Magellan Aerospace (UK) Limited on the South West region and South is a global supplier of technologically Gloucestershire in particular as jobs advanced aerospace systems in defence are deemed important to and components. It is an example the South West’s economy. The South of a business located in South West Observatory estimates that just Gloucestershire which is benefiting under 3% of South West employment is from the success of Airbus. It states related to the defence industry. South that it has recently purchased certain Gloucestershire has a large employment assets of Moore’s (Wallisdown) Ltd sector based around defence. More in a move which strengthens its UK than one in ten manufacturing jobs in

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South Gloucestershire and Bristol are 5.10.10.Private sector companies connected to in the defence sector, with 43,000 full the defence industry are a significant part time jobs across the South West as of the South West economy. In aerospace a whole. Moreover, it has also been alone there are 43,000 full time employees suggested that defence jobs tended to and another 100,000 in the supply chain be highly skilled and better paid than (about 50% of this is defence related other industries which is likely to have a activity). Defence accounts for 6.4% of greater impact on the region’s economy. manufacturing employment and about There is also a high dependency on £3.5billion of exports. defence for other smaller businesses. The recent Defence Review (October 2010) highlighted the extent of cuts to 5.11. m icroelectronics and Silicon Design the defence sector. It is still unclear 5.11.1. The South West of England is home to the exactly how many jobs will be affected largest concentration of silicon designers in South Gloucestershire; however, in Europe and is a key centre for wireless around 8,000 staff currently work at the technologies. A heritage as long as the MoD complex at Abbey Wood and the electronics industry itself provides a number is due to increase to between

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local world–beating cluster of semiconductor 9,000 and 10,000 by 2012 as part of a and wireless technology companies. The reorganisation. Bristol Robotics Lab has emerged as one of Europe’s leaders in robotic technology 5.10.9. In the private sector, South through a joint venture between the Gloucestershire is unlikely to be as Universities of Bristol and the West of effected as other major defence England. employment areas because the strategic review summary outlined that a modern strategic and tactical airlift fleet based 5.12. Environmental Technologies on seven C–17, 22 A400M transport aircraft and up to 14 specially converted 5.12.1. South Gloucestershire Council works Airbus A330 future strategic transport closely with Low Carbon South West a and Tanker aircraft would be procured. trade association and sector partnership However, the MOD Civil Service will between businesses, academia, investors, decrease by 25,000 to 60,000 by 2015, local authorities, regional and national as the requirement for civilian support agencies promoting the growth of the decreases in line with the development environmental technologies and services of new force structures, restructuring sector in the South West. Based in the of defence capabilities, rationalisation West of England LCSW support and of the defence estate and realisation promote the development of environmental of other non–front line savings. These technologies and services; Encourages significant reductions will be managed the adoption of these technologies and through natural turnover and a near services by commercial, industrial and freeze on external recruitment; an institutional end-users seeking to reduce early release programme will also their carbon footprint; Promotes Bristol, be required. Detailed proposals to Bath and South West England as a centre deliver the changes, while retaining key of excellence for sustainability to wider UK Defence skills, will be brought forward and international audiences; Facilitates in consultation with the Department’s effective networking, knowledge exchange trades union. and practical business collaborations, South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 42 5 Local Economic Assessment

for mutual advantage; Encourages links 5.13. nuclear Energy between business and academia within the environmental technology sector, including 5.13.1. Oldbury on Severn has been identified knowledge transfer, support of training as a site to produce nuclear energy. course and recruitment opportunities Currently proposals have been made for a new nuclear plant that would create 5.12.2. There is currently a growing emphasis up to 5,000 jobs and inject £2 billion towards producing energy from renewable into the local economy. If designated sources. As this trend continues, there is by the government and granted likely to be growth in businesses offering development consent it is likely that the expertise in the renewable sectors industry. new power station could comprise up South Gloucestershire has a number of to three nuclear reactors, four cooling enterprises working in the renewable energy towers, together with interim high–level sector. waste storage facilities. Associated development would include electricity 5.12.3. Marine Current Turbines claims to be a transmission infrastructure, access road world leader in marine current and tidal and highway improvements, as well as stream energy. Technology is relatively park and ride facilities for construction new in this sector and as the industry workers. Should all material be grows there will be opportunities for the delivered by road, this would have a South Gloucestershire based business to significant effect on minor local roads expand and thus contribute positively to the and communities, and on the nearby economy of the area. motorway network. The promoter for Oldbury estimates that due to the need 5.12.4. There are many opportunities for creating to raise the site, 9.12 million tonnes of more sustainable forms of energy. In South material will need to be delivered to the Gloucestershire, the River Severn offers the site at the start of site preparation, and potential for hydro power energy creation. this will involve 1,500 HGV movements The Government has concluded that it does per day for the first 14 months on site. not see a strategic case to bring forward a tidal energy scheme in the Severn estuary at this time, but wishes to keep the option 5.14. tourism and Leisure open for future consideration. The decision 5.14.1. The contribution of the visitor economy follows a consideration by Ministers of the in South Gloucestershire is often evidence gathered during a 2 year feasibility

overlooked. On average the area gets South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | study to assess whether, and on what 4.6 million day visits and 1.3 million terms, Government could support a tidal overnight stays per year in South energy scheme in the Severn estuary. The Gloucestershire generating around decision has been taken in the context of £320 million in tourism related spend. wider climate and energy goals, including There are an estimated 7,000 employees consideration of the relative costs, benefits working in the tourism industry which is and impacts of a Severn tidal power around 5% of employment in the area. scheme, as compared to other options for generating low carbon electricity. The 5.14.2. The total value of business turnover decision not to rule out a scheme in the arising as a result of tourist spending, longer term recognises the significant UK from the purchase of supplies and resource that the Severn estuary presents. services locally by businesses in receipt of visitor spending and as a result of the

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spending of wages in businesses by 5.15.4. Health & Social Care is prominent across employees whose jobs are directly or the West of England, employing 73,300 indirectly supported by tourism spending people in this sector. The workforce is estimated to be just under £400 million across the Partnership area is expected pounds per annum. to grow to 81,800 by 2020, an increase of 11%. The increasing focus on the personalisation agenda will have a 5.15. Key Volume Sectors significant impact on providers and will bring about a changed social care 5.15.1. In addition to key value sectors, key marketplace. Within social care the most volume sectors play an important role rapid growth is in self-directed care. With in providing jobs and maintaining a well direct payments giving people control balanced economy. over their care there will may be a rise in the need for Personal Assistants 5.15.2. The retail industry is a key economic sector in the West of England. 56,900 5.15.5. Construction is of economic significance people are employed across 4,709 retail in South Gloucestershire. Most jobs are establishments in the Partnership area. in the basic building and civil engineering

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local The workforce is expected to grow by category. There is also however a 13% by 2020, to 65,800 people. particular local cluster of activity in the technical consultancy area. Construction 5.15.3. Over the past 20 years, retail expenditure has been particularly affected during has polarised towards the out–of–town the recession and will therefore require retail parks, Cribbs Causeway and additional skills support. There is a freestanding stores. Consequently, the growing need for the up-skilling of people traditional centres have seen a decline in all parts of the supply change in order in the proportion of shop frontages in to address the construction and operation retail use, with an increase in non–retail of low carbon, energy-efficient buildings. uses such as cafes, takeaways, and building societies etc. The role of the centres has become more focused upon 5.16. Business Start Ups meeting day to day convenience needs with comparison shopping comprising South West more of amenity goods such as 5.16.1. There were 4,104 business start–ups in the chemist items, household hardware etc. South West in October 2010 which was 13% Furthermore, a number of these centres higher than the year preceding.74 do not offer the space for development or find it difficult to attract comparison South Gloucestershire retail investment. There is, therefore, a 5.16.2. Small and medium sized enterprises need to redefine the role and increase (SMEs) play an important role in maintaining the competitiveness of certain centres to economic stability in South Gloucestershire. ensure they continue to meet the needs It is therefore important to ensure that the of the local community and maintain number of SMEs continue to grow. This viability and vitality. This is being is of particular importance to small towns achieved through the establishment of such as Yate and Thornbury as well as more Business Associations and Chambers of rural areas. Commerce.

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5.16.3. Enterprises qualify as micro, small and 5.16.5. In 2008, the rate of start–ups of enterprises medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) if they and local units in South Gloucestershire fulfill the criteria laid down by the European was 49.2 per 10,000 adult residents, greater Commission. In addition to the staff than the rate in South West (49 per 10,000 headcount ceiling, an enterprise qualifies residents) and less than England’s average as an SME if it meets either the turnover (57.2 per 10,000 residents). During the ceiling or the balance sheet ceiling, but not same year, the rate of closures in South necessarily both. Gloucestershire was 38.5 per 10,000 adult residents, less than the rate in South Enterprise Headcount Turnover or Balance West (42.3 per 10,000 residents). There category sheet total was an increase of 10.7 per 10,000 adult residents of enterprises and local units in medium- < 250 ≤ € 50 ≤ € 43 South Gloucestershire during 2008. The sized million million net change in the stock of enterprises and small < 50 ≤ € 10 ≤ € 10 local units per 10,000 residents in South million million Gloucestershire was greater than in South micro < 10 ≤ € 2 million ≤ € 2 million West (6.7 per 10,000 residents), less than in England (11 per 10,000 residents). Figure 32: Definition of SMEs, European Commission 2005 Recommendation 2003/361/EC Proportion of business registrations and closures per 10,000 resident adult population. 5.16.4. There are a number of issues which affect the survival rates of small and medium Business Business Net sized businesses including congestion, registration closure rate change crime, and the availability of good quality rate (%) (calculated) advice and guidance. These issues, South Glos 49.2 38.5 10.7 coupled with reduced consumer spending, South West 49.0 42.3 6.7 exacerbate the situation and increase the likelihood of a reduced number of business England 57.2 46.2 11.0 start ups. In contrast, public sector cuts Figure 34: Business Registrations Rate and Closure Rate may increase the likelihood of business Source: NI 171 from the Department of Business, Enterprise start-ups, as staff leaving these posts may and Regulatory Reform (BERR); Business Closure chose to become self-employed. Rates were calculated using Deaths of Enterprises (2008) from Business Demography and Resident Population Estimates Number of local units in VAT and/or PAYE based

(2008) from Office for National Statistics (ONS). South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | enterprises in 2010. 1000+ 20–49 50–99 Proportion of business registrations and closures per 10–19 500– Total 250– 100– 0–4 5–9 10,000 resident adult population.

70

South Glos Registration rate 60

10,060 Closure rate 6,660 1,495 855 620 235 135 50 35 10 15 40 30 57.2 49.2 49 46.2 20 38.5 42.3 10 Per 10,000 residents 0 Figure 33: Number of local units in VAT and/or PAYE based S. Glos S. West England enterprises in 2010 Figure 35: Business Registration Rate and Closure Rate Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_ Graph commerce/PA1003_2010/ukbusiness2010.pdf Source: BERR and Business Demography 2008, ONS

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5.16.6 UWE Ventures Bristol® is a 68 space new 5.16.8 In partnership with South Gloucestershire business incubation facility located within Council, New Work Trust manages Bush House, on Bristol's Harbourside. workshop and office units at Station Road, The centre was opened in Feb 2008 and Kingswood. These units are ideal for start provides accommodation and support up and small businesses. They are self- for early stage and start-up knowledge- contained, range in size from 100 to 2,500 based businesses. These businesses square feet and are available on a short or may be founded by UWE students or a longer-term basis for an inclusive license graduates or from the wider community. fee. Businesses can move in immediately Clients have access to serviced office and are only obliged to give two months space, along side other early stage and notice to leave. The inclusive licence start up businesses. They can access a fee covers rent and rates, water and range of business support with practical sewerage, building insurance, reception advice and mentoring that suits their services, site security, waste disposal, car needs. As well as physical incubation, parking, building maintenance and fork lift UWE Ventures also offers virtual truck services. incubation. This provides remote business support for businesses that operate 5.16.9. Business Start Ups by Sector Local Economic Assessment Economic Local from other premises. UWE Ventures Agriculture, hunting & forestry presents a public facing offer underlining Fishing Mining & quarrying UWE’s commitment to supporting Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply development of employability, enterprise Construction Wholesale & retail trade Hotels & restaurants and entrepreneurial skills in the student, Transport, storage & communication Real estate, renting, computer & other business graduate and local populations. It also Public administration & defence Education provides role models and a route forward Health & social work Recreational, personal & community service for students and graduates engaging in Financial intermediation (exc. insurance & pension funds) Insurance companies & pension funds the Ideas Factory (drop in, on-campus Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation Individuals & individual trusts support for innovative and enterprising idea development) and theBizIdea (UWE’s Figure 36: Business Start-Up by Sector flagship business plan/new enterprise Source: Generated on 03/09/2010 - © 2010 BankSearch competition). Information Consultancy Ltd.

5.16.7 With just over 600 clients engaging with According to Bank Search the majority of business its Ideas Factory, over 350 registrations of start ups in South Gloucestershire in 2010 were interest in theBizIdea Competition, 40 full categorised into real estate, renting, computer and business plans entering the competition other business. and 55% occupancy at UWE Ventures Bristol® in the last academic year 5.16.10. Legal Status (2009/10), UWE is seeing an increase in graduate start-ups. 11 graduate start-ups In 2010 the majority of new business start ups were recorded in 2008/09 and a further 19 started as sole traders. in 2009/10. Total recorded graduate and staff companies and spinouts were 42 in 2008/09 and 57 in 2009/10. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 46 5 Local Economic Assessment

2000 industry or sector in the United Kingdom. 1800 1600 In the most simple of terms, GVA is a key 1400

s 1200 measurement of the value of goods and t i n 1000 services produced in an economy (output) U 800 600 minus the value of the inputs used in the 400 200 production of that output, and is hence the 0 l t r l y i p p d d f i i o A e e ‘value added’ by the economic process. o t t F i i r s h s h t ade r pan y P r m m o ab ili t i i i T

m It is the favoured measure nationally for

L L ne r ne r N L t t o e r r l C a a o monitoring the total output of the economy, P P

Legal Status S and can also be used to compare levels of Figure 37: Legal Status of Business Start-Ups productivity in the economy. Source: Generated on 03/09/2010 - © 2010 BankSearch Information Consultancy Ltd. 5.18.2. The South West Growth Scenarios Report (June 2010)76 suggests that in the medium 5.17. Economic Competitiveness term the South West will see strong growth as the economy moves out of the recession 5.17.1. The UK Competitiveness Index 201075 states and enjoys high levels of growth as the that to be competitive is for an economy markets correct themselves. It is expected to attract and maintain firms with stable or real GVA growth will average 2.6% a year rising market shares in an activity, while in the South West between 2010 and 2020, maintaining stable or increasing standards close to the 2.7% forecast for the UK. By of living for those who participate in it. 2018, growth in the economy is likely to back on trend growth and between 2020 5.17.2. The Spatial Economics Analysis Unit at and 2030 and it is estimated that the South the Bristol Business School, University West will grow by 2.1% a year compared of the West of England, researched the with 2.0% in the UK. significance of key sectors in the WoE and identified opportunities and constraints for • In 2008 the South West’s GVA was £97.8 enhancing competitiveness. They carried billion. out a business survey which concluded that all sectors were confident to future growth • In terms of GVA per head, the South West is in turnover and employment but foresaw the most productive English Region outside serious barriers to expansion. These the Greater South East and East of England. barriers included availability of skilled staff GVA per head was £18,782 in 2008. and need for training, as well as concern over the access to financial support and • There is considerable variation in South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | lack of good transport infrastructure. productivity within the region – GVA per head in 2007 ranged from 63% of the UK average in Torbay to 151% in Swindon. 5.18. Gross Value Added (GVA)

5.18.1. GVA is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy. One of the most important contributory factors to growth, both in an individual business and the economy as a whole is labour productivity. GVA measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer,

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5. Business: Enterprise and Innovation

Total GVA forecast (Central forecast) Total GVA forecast (Strong forecast)

4.5 5.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 Percentage points (%) Percentage points (%) 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1 1 2010 201 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2010 201 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Year Year Figure 38: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire Figure 39: Total GVA for South Gloucestershire Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010) Source: Oxford Economics Strong Forecast (2010)

Gross Value Added at West of England Level

Rank 2010 % of WoE 2030 % of WoE

West of England 23,529,000 100% 38,889,000 100%

1 Bristol 10,609,000 45% 17,511,000 45% Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 2 S.Glos 6,090,000 26% 10,542,000 27% 3 N.Somerset 3,422,000 15% 5,668,000 15% 4 BANES 3,408,000 14% 5,168,000 13%

Figure 40: Total GVA in the WoE Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010)

5.18.3. According to Oxford Economics South Gloucestershire is expected to contribute £6,090,000 of GVA in 2010. This would amount to 26% of total contribution to the WoE sub–region which is expected to be 23,529,000.77

Gross Value Added at NUTS 3 Level

5.18.4. At a NUTS 3 level, South Gloucestershire, BANES and North Somerset are the highest contributor of GVA to the South West region with 15%. This highest contribution is expected to continue up to 2030 with a predicted GVA of 21,378,000, 15% of the South West’s contribution.78

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Gross Value Added at West of England Level Local Economic Assessment

Rank NUTS 3 2010 % of SW 1 Bath and North East Somerset, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire 12,920,000 15% 2 Devon CC 10,640,000 12% 3 Gloucestershire 10,618,000 12% 4 Bristol, City of 10,609,000 12% 5 Somerset 8,121,000 9% 6 Wiltshire CC 7,110,000 8% 7 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 6,287,000 7% 8 Bournemouth and Poole 5,971,000 7% 9 Dorset CC 5,546,000 6% 10 Swindon 5,098,000 6% 11 Plymouth 3,814,000 4% 12 Torbay 1,576,000 2%

Figure 41: Total GVA at NUTS 3 in 2010 Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010)

Gross Value Added at West of England Level

Rank NUTS 3 2030 % of SW 1 Bath and North East Somerset, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire 21,378,000 15% 2 Bristol, City of 17,511,000 12% 3 Gloucestershire 16,748,000 12% 4 Devon CC 16,625,000 12% 5 Somerset 12,808,000 9% 6 Wiltshire CC 11,265,000 8% 7 Bournemouth and Poole 9,898,000 7% 8 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 9,628,000 7% 9 Dorset CC 8,627,000 6% 10 Swindon 8,529,000 6% 11 Plymouth 5,747,000 4% 12 Torbay 2,288,000 2% South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Figure 42: Total GVA at NUTS 3 forecasted for 2030 Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010)

Gross Value Added by Sector

5.18.5. The business service sector is the highest contributor of GVA in South Gloucestershire in 2010 and is forecast to continue to be the highest contributor of GVA up to 2030.

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GVA by Sector in South Gloucestershire: £m 2005 5.19.7. GVA per head in the South West region is prices £18,682 compared with £20,442 in England and £19,977 in the UK.79 1. Business services 1267 20.80% 2. Distribution & retail 656 10.77% 3. Transport & communications 572 9.39% 4. Public administration & defence 529 8.69% 5. Construction 393 6.46% Total GVA for top 5 contributors 3418 56.12% Total GVA for all sectors 6090 100%

Figure 43: GVA by Sector Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010)

1. Business services 33,000 21.70% 2. Distribution & retail 23,100 15.19% 3. Health 14,200 9.34% Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 4. Construction 12,100 7.96% 5. Transport and communications 12,100 7.96% Total contributions of top 5 94,500 62.13% employment sectors Total in all sectors 152,100 100%

Figure 44: Employment by Sector (000s) Source: Oxford Economics Central Forecast (2010)

5.18.6. The West of England has the 3rd highest GVA per head (£23,847) in England after London (£35,100) and Nottingham (25,835).

GVA (per head) Core City Comparison

Rank City GVA (per head, £) 1 London 35,100 2 Nottingham 25,835 3 West of England 23,847 4 Leeds 22,904 5 Birmingham 19,801 6 Liverpool 19,647 7 Tyneside 18,919 8 Greater Manchester 18,497 9 Sheffield 17,9 04 Figure 45: GVA (per head) Core City Source: Oxford Economics

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6.1. Strengths number of households, in particular the needs of families. Over the period 2009 6.1.1. Greater Gross Disposable Household to 2021 there is an annual need for 903 Income (GDHI)80: At a NUTS 3 level, new affordable housing units in South South Gloucestershire, Bath and North East Gloucestershire. These headline figures Somerset (BANES), and North Somerset illustrate that to meet housing need 81% has a higher than average GDHI per head of all housing supply should be affordable (£15,322), compared with Bristol (£13,525), housing. the South West (£14,680) and the UK (£14,334). 6.2.4. Housing Capital Budget Cuts: A 60% reduction to the National Affordable 6.1.2. High Level of House Building: Between Housing Programme will mean a limited 2006 and 2026 provision will be made for a amount of public subsidy is available and minimum of 21,500 new dwellings; 2,600 of will create a challenge in finding alternative which have already been completed. This ways to deliver new affordable housing. means providing at least 18,900 dwellings, at an average rate of 1,112 dwellings each 6.2.5. Housing Register: South Gloucestershire year, between 2009 and 2026. has seen a large increase in the number of applicants on the housing register, from 5,832 in July 2008 to 7,667 in July 2009 6.2. Challenges (representing 6% of all households). 6.2.1. Higher than Average House Prices81: 6.2.6. Housing Repossessions: The actual Average house prices in South number of UK repossessions reported by Gloucestershire £181,457 (November Council of Mortgage Lenders for 2009 was 2010) are higher than the national average 46,000. Whilst much lower than the 75,000 (£164,773). In contrast, the average first predicted, this figure is the highest income in South Gloucestershire (2009) for since 1995 and represents a continuation residents (£25,522) is slightly lower than the of the year–on–year increase in UK national picture (£26,148). repossessions seen since 2004. 6.2.2. High Car Dependency: The high level of 6.2.7. Income: Increased demand for housing growth in South Gloucestershire throughout has in part contributed to increased house the past half century has led to high rates prices and this has not been matched of traffic growth, increasing congestion, proportionately by an increase in earnings.

unsustainable commuting patterns and South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | longer journey times. Infrastructure, 6.2.8. Climate Change: Businesses could be and particularly the transport network, is affected by changing climate and weather struggling to cope with the high level of in a variety of ways including risks to development that has taken place over premises, processes, and the health and recent years. This growth has also not safety of employees. been matched by the appropriate level of supporting services and infrastructure, a 6.2.9. Flooding: Similar to many other areas, situation which has been exacerbated by there is a risk of flooding in parts of South the impact of the economic recession. Gloucestershire, for example in some of the areas which lay adjacent to the river 6.2.3. Housing Supply and Affordability82: Severn. Any flooding will create disruption to New housing supply of all tenures is not people and business. Business is likely to keeping pace with the needs of a growing

80 http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth-scenarios/ 81 http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/ 82 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/A0A262EE-F59E-4DA5-AE17-344EB504F7B7/0/CS_FULL.pdf 51 6

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

incur costs for any such clean-up operation area could help reduce car dependency and inevitable lose money for any days levels which in turn will relieve congestion that the business is shut due to flooding. and enhance the productivity of the In addition, damage done to infrastructure regions businesses. Measures to tackle may also have negative effects on business congestion and improve journey times, and its daily operations. There are also provide alternatives to the car, influence insurance implications for businesses in travel behaviour, manage demand through areas at risk of flooding. highway improvement, management and maintenance, ensure access to employment 6.2.10. Cost of Fuel: In terms of transport the cost growth areas, support the delivery of of fuel has greater implications for rural houses and jobs and maintain, manage communities as they are more reliant on and ensure the best use of transport assets. private transport to get around. 6.3.4. Improved Quality of Life: Enhancing the public realm, minimising the impact 6.3. Opportunities of transport on the natural and historic environment, reducing the number of 6.3.1. Investment in the Low Carbon Economy: people exposed to high levels of transport

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Investing in offshore wind generation, noise, promoting better access to leisure marine energy, nuclear energy and activities and the countryside. production of low carbon vehicles could further ensure economic stability in South 6.3.5. Hanham Hall: Is the country’s first large Gloucestershire and play a leading role in scale zero carbon development. Building bringing low carbon technologies to the developments such as this provide an forefront of its strategy to mitigate the effects opportunity for innovation and more of climate change. Growth in environmental sustainable forms of design. technologies and new construction skills may benefit the area which is designated for major development at a time when the need 6.4. Housing for carbon reduction has been recognised. 6.4.1. Housing is integral to the economic 6.3.2. House Growth: 18,900 dwellings as prosperity and wellbeing of communities. identified in the Core Strategy83 are Housing needs to be affordable in order to delivered at a rate of 1,112 dwellings each attract talented and highly skilled people year, between 2009 and 2026. The impact into an area and to ensure there is enough of increased house building is likely to supply to meet existing residents’ needs. increase the affordability of housing and reduce the likelihood of further increases Supply to the average house price in South Gloucestershire. House building will also 6.4.2. ExtraCare housing is designed to help stimulate the economy through increased elderly people live as independent a life employment. Delivery of Infrastructure a possible, whilst providing them with a and Development Plan could be a good degree of support tailored to their individual opportunity for public funding to deliver needs. The demand for ExtraCare housing more affordable and market housing. will increase as the population of South Gloucestershire continues to age. 6.3.3. Improvement in Transport Infrastructure: Deliverance of the proposed packages to improved public transportation in the

83 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/ConstructionandHousing/Planning/PlanningPolicy/LocalDevelopmentFramework/CoreStrategyPage/ South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 52 6 Local Economic Assessment affordable housing affordable households in net need of average Annual (2001–2008) Average completions Annual 2009–2021 (2001–2008) (net) completions* AverageAnnual affordable 2009/10** (net) completions Affordable 6.4.3. Housebuilding in recent years has been affected by the downturn in the economy. This will continue to have an impact on housing delivery for the next year or so, but then it is expected that there will be an upturn in house building.

6.4.4. The Residential Land Availability Survey84 has been completed for the period March 2009 to March 2010. The survey reveals South 903 770 149 281 that, as expected, housing completions Gloucestershire reflect a “slow down” in the housing market during this year both on large sites (10 Figure 46: Annual average completions and annual average dwellings or more) and small sites (less households in need of affordable housing than 10 dwellings). There were a total of 742 * Does not include acquisitions. dwellings completed in 09/10 (both private ** NI155 figure (includes HomeBuy Direct completions) and affordable) compared with total net Source: Residential Land Surveys/Local Authority Monitoring completions of 916 in 08/09 and 1,003 in records, and the SHMA 2009. 07/08. 6.4.8. There are in the region of 11,000 social 6.4.5. Between 2006 and 2026 provision will rented dwellings in South Gloucestershire; be made for a minimum of 21,500 new this includes general needs, supported dwellings; 2,600 of which have already been housing and housing for older people. completed. This means providing at least Lettings arising in the existing social 18,900 dwellings, at an average rate of 1,112 housing sector are an important source dwellings each year, between 2009 and of affordable housing supply. The SHMA 2026. Over half of this housing is accounted identified that areas with very low relets for through planning permissions and are found mainly in suburban and small allocations in the South Gloucestershire town areas and the highest relet rates are, Local Plan. interestingly, in some more rural areas. The SHMA predicts that the relet rate for South 6.4.6. Failure to deliver housing completions, Gloucestershire will fall in future years, this including affordable dwellings, is not means that there will be less turnover in solely linked to land supply; land prices social housing and therefore a reduction and viability of development also play

in supply from existing stock. The extent South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | an important role. The downturn and to which the recent announcements in the continuing uncertainty over the direction CSR will effect this prediction is unknown. of property values is likely to have affected land values. These will take some time 6.4.9. The SHMA found that lower supply levels to recover, and this will have significant in the West of England and nationally impacts in the West of England upon will increase house prices and therefore viability and deliverability of some housing decrease affordability (particularly, the and employment sites. proportion of younger households able to afford to buy or rent in the market). 6.4.7. As reported in the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), affordable housing delivery under current policy continues to be insufficient to meet need; emerging Core Strategies may seek to address this issue.

84 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/BED1D50B-D08F-4D27-B82A-7BA5D2392E14/0/PTE100132.pdf 53 6

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

6.4.10. Housing developments such as Hanham Change Hall provide the hallmark for creating Household 2006 2011 2016 2026 2006 more sustainable communities. Housing Type –2026 built with a greater emphasis on sustainable design principles can provide Married an opportunity to explore low carbon couple 239,000 235,000 236,000 243,000 4,000 technologies and better building techniques household which take greater consideration for the Cohabiting environmental impact of building. couple 60,000 75,000 88,000 106,000 46,000 household Household Projections Lone parent 37,000 41,000 45,000 51,000 14,000 6.4.11. For the economic and social sustainability household of South Gloucestershire, it is important One that the supply of dwellings keeps pace person 157,000 178,000 202,000 252,000 95,000 with projected growth in the number of household households. Other

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local multi– 37,000 41,000 46,000 51,000 14,000 6.4.12. In 2009, Communities and Local person Government released household household projections based upon the Office of Total 543,000 587,000 635,000 726,000 183,000 National Statistics 2006 population projections. The household projections Average show that the majority of growth in the household 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.14 – size West of England area will be amongst one– person households and cohabiting couple Figure 47: 2006–based Household Estimates and households. The SHMA recognised that Projections for the WoE HMA by Household Type demographic projections emphasise the Source: CLG 2006–based household projections. need for smaller properties. 6.4.13. The components of change underpinning the 2006–based household projections show that average household size is falling; the number of newly forming households out of the existing population is therefore likely to rise.

Strategic Housing Market Assessment

5.4.14. The West of England Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)85 was published in June 2009. It covers the six local authority areas of Bath and North East Somerset, Bristol, North Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Mendip and West Wiltshire. The SHMA was carried out according to the Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance Version 2 issued August 2007, as required by Planning Policy S3.

85 http://www.westofengland.org/planning--housing/housing-market-partnership/strategic-housing-market-assessment South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 54 6 Local Economic Assessment

6.4.15. The purpose of an SHMA is to provide 2009–2021 South Glos evidence on housing need and demand 1 bed 23% across a housing market area in terms of affordable and market housing, identify 2 bed flat 7% the housing requirements of specific 2 bed house 38% groups and the appropriate mix of housing 3 bed house 22% required. 4 + bed house 10% 6.4.16. Over the period 2009 to 2021 there is Figure 49: Required Unit Mix of new housing for Social Rent an annual need for 903 new affordable Source: SHMA housing units in South Gloucestershire. These headline figures illustrate that to meet housing need 81% of all housing supply 2009–2021 South Glos should be affordable housing. 1 bed flat 44%

6.4.17. Key factors contributing to the annual 2 bed flat 17% need figure include a large backlog of 2 bed house 19% households currently in need for affordable 3 bed house 19% housing; a projected annual increase of newly forming households continuing 4 bed house 1% to need social rented accommodation; Figure 50: Required Unit Mix of Intermediate Housing and the relatively small existing stock of Source: SHMA affordable housing limiting the ability to meet needs through re–lets. Housing Register 6.4.18. The required tenure split between Social 6.4.20. South Gloucestershire has seen a large Rent and Intermediate housing identified increase in the number of applicants on the through the SHMA is set out below. housing register, from 5,832 in July 2008 to 7,667 in July 2009 (representing 6% of all 2009–2021 South Glos households). Total net need social rent 727 6.4.21. Housing registers do not provide a Total net need intermediate 176 complete measure of need. Households Percentage spilt social rent / 80/20% with a housing need may choose not to Intermediate

register for a variety of reasons, including a South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | Total net housing need 903 perception that chances of rehousing are low, or that properties available do not meet Figure 48: Housing Need by Tenure (Annual average their needs. Conversely, some households 2009–2021) Source: SHMA may choose to register although their problems might be better solved in ways 5.4.19. The tables below show the required unit other than the allocation of a social rented mix of new affordable housing, both for housing unit. Housing registers are however social rented and intermediate. considered a useful proxy for pressure on affordable housing stock.

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6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

Repossessions recovered to £181,437 and the volume of property sales increased; this is likely to 6.4.22. The actual number of UK repossessions indicate the return of buyers who delayed reported by Council of Mortgage Lenders purchasing through the turbulence of 2008 for 2009 was 46,000. Whilst much lower and the increase of money going into the than the 75,000 first predicted, this figure housing market through quantitative easing is the highest since 1995 and represents a (low interest rates and increased mortgage continuation of the year–on–year increase lending rates). in UK repossessions seen since 2004. 2007 6.4.23. The number of properties taken into possession by first–charge mortgage Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 lenders continued to fall in the second 1,285 1,454 1,533 1,145 quarter of 2010. This is largely due to 2008 support mechanisms that have been put in place. However, there is still a risk that the Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 number of repossessions will increase due 698 840 651 712 to numerous factors, including a possible

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 2009 rise in unemployment, higher interest rates, and reduced government support for Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 mortgage payments. 488 806 904 1077

Affordability Figure 51: Property Sale Volumes in South Gloucestershire (2007/08/09) Source: Land Registry 6.4.24. Affordability of housing is affected not only by the level of house prices and rents 6.4.26 During the summer months of 2010 there but by local incomes and the general has been stagnation in the market with availability and cost of borrowing. In the figures in May the same as the previous medium term affordability for first–time month of April, followed by a drop of 0.2% buyers is expected to improve as maximum in June 2010. Recovery has been tentative, loan to value ratios return to 90%, however, with slight rises; however, the latest results in the long–term affordability will be for September 2010 show a 0.2% drop from determined by the level of homes that are the previous month at £182,104. built. If build rates are too low, demand will further outstrip supply thus pushing up 6.4.27. House prices in South Gloucestershire house prices and increasing house–price are higher than the national average. In to income ratios further. September 2010 the Land Registry showed the average for England and Wales as House Prices £166,769. The average house price in Bristol for September 2010 was £175,100, 6.4.25. South Gloucestershire experienced a £228,502 for Bath and Northeast Somerset period of sustained growth between and £180,442 for North Somerset. September 2005 and September 2007. After this period of growth prices fluctuated before dropping to their lowest level of £161,844 in May 2009, according to the Land Registry House Price Index. Between May 2009 and April 2010 prices South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 56 6 Local Economic Assessment

6.4.28. Evidence shows that, on the whole, 6.4.32. Mortgage interest rates vary widely both house prices and the volume of depending on the level of deposit; in property sales have been falling in South August 2010 the average three–year fixed Gloucestershire HMA since 2007. Falling deal had an interest rate of 4.5% compared house prices alone are not sufficient in with 4.9% in January 2010. However, only a restricted lending market to improve 8% of mortgage deals would accept a 10% affordability for first time buyers, and the deposit; whilst 58% of the deals available cost of the cheapest homes remains seven required at a deposit of at least 25%. to eight times that of lower level earnings. At the same time, the fall in the market 6.4.33. The gradual rise in the number of has constrained the development of new mortgages continued in July 2010 with homes. Rising unemployment levels as a 56,000 loans for house purchases, up 6% result of the economic downturn has only on a year earlier. compounded the affordability issue. 6.4.34. As well as the affordability of mortgage 6.4.29. Forecasts for 2011 are uncertain; house repayments, the ability of first–time buyers prices could fall again if interests rates to get onto the housing ladder is affected increase or the recession continues. by two further indicators; the loan to value ratio (which determines deposits) and 6.4.30. Increased demand for housing has in part income multiples applied by mortgage contributed to increased house prices and lenders. The average income multiple for this has not been matched proportionately first–time buyers fell to 3.14 in May 2010 by an increase in earnings. from 3.16 in April 2010 but was up from 3.04 a year earlier. Gross Annual Pay (median) of Full–time Workers in South Gloucestershire 6.4.35. In July 2010, 19,400 loans were made to first–time buyers (accounting for 34% of the 2007 2008 2009 market) and the average first–time buyer Workplace Workplace Workplace Residence Residence Residence deposit remained high at 24%.

Private Rental Market

6.4.36. Private renting is often a crucial option for 24,711 25,590 25,714 26,208 25,522 27,542 young households; historical evidence shows that renting has remained a more

Figure 52: Gross Annual Pay (median) of full–time workers South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | affordable option than home ownership. Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings The Local Housing Allowance is used to calculate Housing Benefit which assists Mortgages households on lower incomes with paying their private rent. Housing benefit plays an 6.4.31. Between August 2008 and March 2009 the important role in meeting housing need in Bank of England interest rate fell from 5.0% the private sector. to 0.5%, the lowest level in the banks 315– year history. The interest rate continues 6.4.37. In September 2010 private rental stock to be held at 0.5% in October 2010 in an levels were 28% below their peak in May attempt to boost the economy. 2009, with asking rents having increased by 1.9% compared with September 2009.

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6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

6.4.38. The Government has proposed several Gross Disposable Household Income changes to Housing Benefit and Local Housing Allowance. The main measures 6.4.42. Gross disposable household income that will impact upon affordability are as (GDHI) is the amount of money that follows. LHA rates will be set at the 30th individuals have available after tax, percentile of market rents from October National Insurance, pension contributions 2011 as opposed to the 50th percentile and housing costs. GHDI is calculated or median rate. Effectively, this means based on where individuals live rather than that only 30% of homes in the private where they work. It can also be used to rental market will be affordable and thus provide an indicator of relative wealth in accessible to those in receipt of Housing an area compared to another area as it Benefit instead of 50%. In addition, Local includes people in receipt of benefits as Housing Allowance rates will be capped well as income received from earnings. from April 2011, at reduced amounts to current rates. South Bristol UK Gloucestershire, 6.4.39. These proposed changes are likely to BANES and increase housing need and will intensify North Somerset Local Economic Assessment Economic Local the pressure on social housing. The new Gross budget measures will also make it more Disposable difficult to prevent homelessness. Household £15 322 £13 525 £14,334 Income per Social Housing Grant head

Figure 53: Gross Disposable Household Income per Head 6.4.40. The National Affordable Housing Source: ONS Local profile 2008 (NUTS 3) Programme is funded by the Government through the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA), using Social Housing 6.5. Broadband Grant. In addition to the Housing Benefit and Local Housing Allowance measures 6.5.1. According to the SWO the universal service detailed above the Government has cut commitment on broadband provision has the HCA’s capital budget for affordable been deferred to 2015. This could have a housing by 60% to £1.1 billion per year to disproportionate effect on rural businesses 2015, nationally. Much of this has already in the South West, particularly as the been committed. The funding available for region is already the worst off of all English the new programme is therefore severely Regions in terms of broadband speed limited. provision. 19.9% of premises do not yet have 2 megabits per second (the universal 6.4.41. Social housing is scarce and reductions in service commitment speed). Also, as central government capital spending are Government seeks to reduce costs through likely to reverse the upward trend in new increased e-delivery (for example Business social housing completions achieved in Support provided through a website only), recent years. This means that there will not there may well be issues with access for the be an adequate or growing social housing rural South West. stock which can pick up the strain of people priced out of private rented housing. 6.5.2. The Federation for Small Businesses recently produced a report on the importance of broadband provision for South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 58 6 Local Economic Assessment

small businesses. As the economy in the denied access to potential social and South West’s rural areas is dependent upon economic benefits. For the UK as a whole it small businesses, the findings of this report means that we may not realise our potential are particularly relevant. Key points: in creating and exploiting a knowledge economy. • Rural businesses, especially, did not seem to trade as much online as they could 6.5.4. Digital inclusion work has often focused because of a lack of reliable and fast on the citizen’s access to the Internet as enough for the purpose broadband speed the key to realising the benefits of digital with appropriate IP throughput. technology – be that government services, entertainment, work and job hunting or cost • 24% of respondents are dissatisfied with efficient shopping. their broadband service. Of those small firms that are dissatisfied, 63% said they are 6.5.5. Job seekers need access to the internet to unhappy with the speed and reliability of their find jobs in the first place but also people internet connection supplied by their service have to be computer literate in order to get provider. 30% said the area they live in has an some jobs. unreliable broadband connection and 13% said they would consider moving business 6.5.6. Digital inclusion is fundamental to premises to an area with faster broadband. maximise the potential for economic growth, prosperity and social cohesion. • The survey also showed that a lack of From enhancing Information and broadband speed and acceptable IP Communications Technology (ICT) skills throughput reduces productivity for a third necessary to compete with emerging of small businesses. Other areas of difficulty economies, to encouraging and enabling due to speed restrictions are: the use of innovation, digital technologies and email (49%) information back–up (23%), the the ways in which they are applied are processing of payments (27%) and online becoming increasingly integral to the marketing (20%). Furthermore, 60% of information based economy. members said a lack of broadband speed seriously impacted upon their use of new 6.5.7. There is considerable data which technologies, such as video conferencing demonstrates the varied economic benefits on Skype, webcasts and podcasts. of digital cost savings from technology.

• When asked what Government could Key figures taken from Economic benefits of do now to most effectively help small digital inclusion include: South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | businesses with online access, 60% indicated that they wanted a guaranteed • £200m contribution to the UK economy until universal minimum download speed of 8 2020 by raising ICT skills Mbps for all users. • 1.14 to 1.54 per cent increase in UK Gross Digital inclusion Domestic Product (GDP) 2008–2010 due to public spending on e–government and 6.5.3. Digital inclusion refers to the process of digital literacy programmes bringing the benefit of the Internet and related technology into all segments of • £140m per year potential saving through the population and by doing so reducing fewer missed hospital appointments with the impacts of the digital divide. Digital NHS Choose and Book exclusion for the individual means being

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6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

6.5.8. As rural areas are better connected to the • The adverse impact of traffic congestion on World Wide Web, and served by faster and the local economy, bus service reliability, more reliable broadband, small businesses community severance and people’s health and particularly rural businesses are likely (e.g. poor air quality); to become more competitive. This showed in the Federation of Small Businesses • Limited access to major employment areas survey on broadband by which it became in the North and East Fringe by public apparent that small businesses, especially transport, cycling and walking; rural businesses, did not seem to trade as much online as they could because of • Poor access to facilities and services by a lack of reliable and fast enough for the public transport, cycling and walking; purpose broadband speed with appropriate IP throughput. • Lack of sufficient public transport services linking rural communities with jobs, services 6.5.9. In recent years access to broadband has and facilities, which leads to increased increased in rural areas but rural areas still reliance on the private car. are more likely to suffer from slower, less reliable access. High quality broadband • Increased car ownership Local Economic Assessment Economic Local access should improve education and lifelong learning; business development; • Lack of affordability of public transport social and community cohesion; and equitable access to services. In addition, 6.6.2. All the main roads and junctions in South this access can provide opportunities for Gloucestershire are congested to varying more flexible labour markets. degrees and have no spare capacity to cope with recurrent or exceptional traffic 6.5.10. While broadband use is driven by online conditions in extended AM and PM peak shopping, banking and entertainment. periods. The Bristol North and East Fringe Those not in a position to access are particularly congested; please see broadband, many of whom are already figure 55. socially disadvantaged, are excluded from what, for a large section of the population, 6.6.3. Outside Bristol, the towns of Thornbury, Yate are now basic services, such as applying and Chipping Sodbury and the surrounding for road tax and other Post Office services, rural areas are car–dependent. Although downloading music and social networking. they do have several employment areas, there is net out–commuting traffic to Bristol city centre, the North Fringe and beyond. 6.6. Transport This results in heavy tidal traffic flows towards Bristol in the morning, returning in 6.6.1. South Gloucestershire has seen significant the evening. development, particularly in the Bristol North and East Fringe; however, the 6.6.4. The Highways Agency is responsible for supporting transport infrastructure has not the motorway network; it is concerned kept pace with the demands put on it by about the adverse impact of local traffic this and by an increase in car use in the generation on the motorway network. To population as a whole. Key issues include: mitigate this, several capacity improvement schemes have been implemented in • Traffic congestion, in particular in the North the last decade; however, the scope for and East Fringe and at motorway junctions; further improvement is now limited by South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 60 6 Local Economic Assessment

physical constraints (and consequent cost). 6.6.9. Bus services are adversely affected by the Therefore, the Agency has developed a traffic congestion described above, but this scheme to manage the M4/M5 around will be somewhat mitigated by bus priority Bristol; the Managed Motorway scheme measures currently being implemented would see variable speed controls and through the Greater Bristol Bus Network hard–shoulder running to smooth traffic flow [GBBN] major transport scheme and by and increase throughput. Funding for the other schemes funded by the JLTP and scheme has been confirmed. developer contributions.

6.6.5. Bristol Parkway is the main railway station in 6.6.10. The nearest airports are Bristol and Cardiff, South Gloucestershire; it has been updated both accessible from South Gloucestershire and is well–served by numerous inter–city by the motorway network and by public and local services, giving direct access to a transport. wide range of destinations. Other stations in South Gloucestershire include Filton 6.6.11. The cycle and pedestrian networks Abbey Wood, Patchway, Pilning, Yate and generally follow the highways, but there Severn Beach. As well as the main lines, are also bespoke cyclepaths throughout rail freight is provided via the Hallen branch the area providing traffic–free links. The to Avonmouth from the Great Western cycle routes are being improved by the mainline at Parkway. Cycle City project, a Government–funded scheme with match–funding from Bristol 6.6.6. Bus services in the Bristol North and and South Gloucestershire Councils that East Fringe are predominantly radial totals £22.8m. The aim of the project is to urban services to/from the city centre, double the number of cyclists in Greater supplemented by orbital services and Bristol and it involves not only infrastructure ‘country’ bus services (e.g. to Thornbury); improvements, but also cycle training, there is also a bespoke network of bus promotion and smarter choices. services for UWE students (U–link). There are bus stations at UWE, Bristol Parkway 6.6.12. The smarter choices programme extends and The Mall, Cribbs Causeway. beyond Cycle City to encompass the promotion of all sustainable modes of travel. 6.6.7. The main bus services in the towns are the A key part of smarter choices are travel country services to/from Bristol, which also plans, both for businesses and schools. cater for intra–town trips; there are also a few bespoke town services. There is a Future Plans network of rural bus services, with the best South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | level of service on the radial routes between 6.6.13. The Joint Local Transport Plan [JLTP] sets Bristol and Thornbury, Yate and Chipping out the transport policies for the South Sodbury. Gloucestershire and its neighbouring authorities in the West of England. The draft 6.6.8. Most of the Sunday, evening and rural JLTP3 Vision is for a transport system that services bus services are provided strengthens the local economy, improves with financial support from the Council, access, ensures alternatives to the car are providing vital links for people without a realistic first choice being affordable, safe, access to a car. The Council also provides secure, reliable, simple to use and available financial support for community and to all. There are five goals in the draft voluntary transport. The funding for these JLTP3: will come under pressure through the Comprehensive Spending Review.

61 6 © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011. © Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. Local Economic Assessment Economic Local

Existing Traffic Issues SGC Core Strategy Existing Traffic Issues Source: Figure 54: Figure South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 62 6 Local Economic Assessment © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011. © Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. Cycling City Cycle City 55: Figure

• Supporting economic growth (measures better than the national standards, to tackle congestion and improve journey encouraging and facilitating more physically times, provide alternatives to the car, active travel modes, improving personal influence travel behaviour, manage security on the transport networks). demand through highway improvement, management and maintenance, ensure • Quality of life (enhancing the public access to employment growth areas, realm, minimising the impact of transport support the delivery of houses and jobs and on the natural and historic environment, maintain, manage and ensure the best use reducing the number of people exposed of transport assets); to high levels of transport noise, promoting better access to leisure activities and the • Reducing carbon emissions (reducing countryside). greenhouse gas emissions by focusing on the promotion of lower carbon travel 6.6.14. Funding for transport, especially at the choices, providing alternatives to the car, time of writing, is problematic, but is central South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | influencing travel behaviour and managing to achieving these goals. All funding demand); and bids (for funding) is subject to the Comprehensive Spending Review. • Equality of opportunity (improving accessibility for all residents to health 6.6.15. The JLTP3 includes a major transport services, employment, digital infrastructure scheme programme, which was included and other local services); in the West of England’s submission to the Government for a Local Economic • Safety, health and security (reducing the Partnership. As well as the aforementioned number of road casualties and improving GBBN (being implemented), the road safety, improving air quality and programme includes three major schemes ensuring air quality in other areas remains in South Gloucestershire, namely:

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• The North Fringe to Hengrove Package 6.6.19. Ensuring the timely implementation of [NFHP], a bid for £171m towards a £194m transport infrastructure improvements and scheme comprising Rapid Transit between additions to serve new developments and the North and East Fringe and Bristol via the mitigate their impact is essential, such Stoke Gifford Transport Link [SGTL]; that new residents and businesses have appropriate access facilities when they • A bid for £74m towards the Bristol Temple move–in and existing communities are not Meads to Emersons Green Rapid Transit via overly penalised by increased demand on Fishponds and Mangotsfield; infrastructure and services.

• The Greater Bristol Metro, a bid for £17m 6.6.20. Policy CS7 of the Core Strategy Pre– towards the introduction of a half–hourly Submission Publication Draft (March 2010) rail services over lines from Bristol Temple describes a set of transport improvement Meads to Bristol Parkway and Yate. packages to support development. These packages are considered necessary to 6.6.16. The bids to DfT would not cover the total provide travel choice to the residents of scheme cost; there will be a requirement for the new development and assist reduce funding from come from ‘local’ sources (e.g. congestion in their respective areas. They Local Economic Assessment Economic Local developer contributions). comprise:

6.6.17. Land use planning is guided by the South • The Cribbs/Patchway New Neighbourhoods Gloucestershire Local Plan and, from Package; 2011, the Core Strategy Pre–Publication Submission Draft (March 2010). There • The East of Harry Stoke New is ongoing or committed development in Neighbourhood Package; the North and East Fringe at several sites, which will provide additional transport • The Yate/Chipping Sodbury Package; infrastructure. The developments proposed in the draft Core Strategy provides • The Rural Package; opportunities to meet the JLTP3 challenges, not only within development sites, but also • The Ring Road Package. in their environs. The key to this will be to minimise dependence on the private car, such that car trip generation (from a site) is 6.7. Waste & Recycling substantially less than has been the case in 6.7.1. It is important to recognise that managing past decades. waste efficiently may make cost savings for business. South Gloucestershire has 6.6.18. Integrated, mixed use development is one achieved challenging household waste means of reducing the need to use the targets; 55.4% of municipal waste to landfill car, providing people with the opportunity and recycling and composting 40.6% of to live, work and access services in close household waste (2009/10). Household proximity. Providing public transport, waste accounts for less than 10% of the walking and cycling services and facilities total waste produced in this country. that are an alternative to the private car Commercial waste is however disposed of are essential. Notwithstanding this, new by business themselves. highway will also be required, both on and off site, to cater for residual car trips, as well as bus and emergency service access. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 64 6 Local Economic Assessment

6.8. Climate Change: Transition to a Low shows that about 40% of CO2 emissions in South Gloucestershire in 2008 were from Carbon Economy the Industrial and Commercial sector and a further 25% from road transport emissions 6.8.1. Climate change is one of the key issues (excluding motorways). The following table of global and local concern this century. provides a summary of CO emissions from Urgent action is required to reduce 2 industrial and commercial activity in South greenhouse gas emissions from transport, Gloucestershire from 2005 – 2008 (the industry, commerce, housing and waste, latest available data). and to manage the impacts of climate change in order to adapt to a changing climate.

6.8.2. In considering the transition to a low carbon economy it is important to distinguish between:

• Decarbonisation of existing economic activity in South Gloucestershire to reduce

CO2 emissions and increase competitive advantage and resilience; and

• Growing technologies and services which will benefit from the low carbon transition.

6.9. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Economic Activity

6.9.1. The UK Climate Change Act (2008) sets legally binding national targets to reduce

CO2 emissions by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 on a 1990 baseline. In addition, the European Union has set a number of energy targets which include: South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | • 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources by 2020

• 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency.

6.9.2. Annual data on local authority area–

based CO2 emissions is compiled by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and includes emissions from energy use in industrial and commercial properties and operations. The latest data

65 6

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability B. Industry andB. Industry Commercial A. Industry and Industry Commercial A. Population (‘000s, mid–year mid–year Population (‘000s, Total of Tonnes (Thousands (Thousands of Tonnes of CO (Thousands (Thousands of Tonnes of CO (Thousands (Thousands of Tonnes of CO (Thousands Installations (Thousands of of (Thousands Installations E. Agricultural Combustion Combustion Agricultural E. Gas (Thousands of TonnesGas (Thousands Industry andIndustry Commercial – Commercial (Tonnes CO (Tonnes Commercial Electricity (Thousands of of (Thousands Electricity Per capita – Industry and and – Industry capita Per Commercial Other Fuels Fuels Other Commercial C. Industrial Large F. Diesel Railways D. Industrial and Tonnes CO Tonnes CO estimate) CO CO Year 2 2 ) ) 2 2 ) ) 2 ) 2 2 2 ) ) )

2005 523 144 274 92 15 28 1,076 255.4 4.2

2006 583 137 191 82 14 28 1,034 257.5 4.0 2007 573 121 240 84 14 28 1,059 259.4 4.1 2008 428 117 42 77 14 28 706 260.4 2.7

Figure 56: CO2 emissions Source: DECC

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 6.9.3. The data shows that emissions from • The European Union Emissions Trading industrial and commercial activity in System and the Carbon Reduction South Gloucestershire remained broadly Commitment Energy Efficiency Scheme. consistent from 2005 – 2007, and then These schemes apply (respectively) to large declined significantly during 2008. Detailed and medium sized emitters – and introduce data on where this reduction has come financial and reputational incentives to from is not available, but it is thought that a reduce carbon dioxide emissions substantial portion is accounted for by the closure of Terra Nitrogen’s fertiliser plant – • Business Link advice / support, including formerly located in the Severnside area. Improving Your Resource Efficiency (IYRE), and related grant and loan funds 6.9.4. Businesses which consume significant amounts of energy in their premises, • West of England Carbon Challenge – operations and/or transport fleet are likely provides members with free advice, tools to be vulnerable to energy price rises and and practical support to measure, manage

energy security issues. Decarbonising and reduce their CO2 emissions. existing economic activity in the West of England will help to increase its competitive • The Government has set up a new form advantage and resilience. of financial support – the ‘Feed–In Tariff’ to reward renewable electricity generators 6.9.5. There are various existing national, regional for each unit of renewable electricity they and local initiatives to incentivise and produce based on a tariff–system. A similar support businesses in reducing the amount financial support tariff for renewable heat of energy they need to buy, including: – the ‘Renewable Heat Incentive’ is being introduced during 2011. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 66 6 Local Economic Assessment

6.9.6. There are also a number of barriers 6.10.3. There are a variety of sub–regional and to creating a low carbon economy in regional programmes, initiatives and South Gloucestershire. This includes networks which aim to encourage and South Gloucestershire’s high level of car enable research, development and dependency and lack of efficient and innovation in low carbon technologies and effective public transport. This reliance on services, and to support the continued the car is most applicable to rural areas growth of the sustainable energy and wider where public transport and access to environmental industries. These include: goods and services locally is limited. • SW Environmental Innovation Network (iNet); 6.10. Growing the Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services • Regen SW skills and supply chain development initiatives for deployment of (LCEGS) Sector renewable energy – wind, wave, tidal, solar and biomass; 6.10.1. There are significant commercial opportunities associated with the transition • Low Carbon South West (with main hub of to a low carbon economy, such as: activities in Bristol and Bath) • Renewable and sustainable energy and • West of England Skills and Competitiveness related infrastructure (eg smart grids) Board – environmental technologies and services sector skills strategy; • Low carbon building design and construction (including retrofit) • Avonmouth and Severnside development, including Bristol Port expansion and ADZ • Low carbon mobility (eg electric and hybrid (accelerated development zone) proposal; fuel vehicles) and transport Infrastructure • S–Park – Bristol & Bath Science Park and • Alternative fuels including sustainable National Composites Centre; hydrogen and sustainable bio–fuels

• Smarter / more efficient appliances 6.11. Climate Change Adaptation

• ICT 6.11.1. Even if all our greenhouse gas emissions

were to cease tomorrow, the legacy of past South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | • Finance greenhouse gas emissions will still result in changes in our weather and climate. We • Local and organic food production are expecting progressively warmer, wetter winters, hotter, drier summers, and more • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) extreme weather events.

6.10.2. In addition, consumers are becoming 6.11.2. Businesses could be affected by changing more conscience of the impact a product climate and weather in a variety of ways or service has had on the environment – including risks to premises, processes, and businesses are increasingly aware and the health and safety of employees. of the marketing potential and added Changing weather and climate will value of being able to demonstrate “green also provide some new commercial credentials.” opportunities.

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6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011. © Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Areas of Flood Risk South Gloucestershire Council Gloucestershire South Areas of Flood Risk 57: Figure Source:

6.11.3. South Gloucestershire Council and Partners undertook a ‘comprehensive risk and opportunity assessment’ during 2009 to identify the main anticipated risks and opportunities resulting from a changing climate in South Gloucestershire. The table below provides a summary of the issues, risks, opportunities relevant to business and economic development, and sets out existing activities to increase preparedness. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 68 6 Local Economic Assessment

Stakeholders Summary of Issues, and relevant risks / Existing Adaptation Activities opportunities from the comprehensive assessment (with short & long term risk rating) 86

Business Link SW Summary of Issues Existing business continuity plans maintained by larger businesses in S Glos. Business Link SW GWE Business West Businesses could be affected by changing climate and weather in a variety of ways – are working to encourage smaller businesses to Low Carbon South including risks to premises, processes, and the adopt continuity plans. West health and safety of employees. Environment Agency / Lower Severn Internal Decreasing availability of insurance for UWE Drainage Board monitoring / maintaining flood businesses in areas at risk of flooding in South defences for industries already situated in flood Filton College Gloucestershire could decrease the competitive advantage of the area for attracting and retaining zones, eg Severnside SGC Economic businesses. EA communications with businesses in at–risk Development Changing weather and climate will also provide areas Environment Agency some new commercial opportunities. Business link guidance – ‘Crisis Management and Relevant Risks and Opportunities from Risk Businesses Business Continuity Planning’. Refers to flooding Assessment / storm damage as one crisis potentially affecting Employers • Flood/storm damage to business premises and business continuity 87: transport infrastructure (6, 9) Aspiration to develop a cluster of green business • Disruption to economic activity from over– / technology in the Avonmouth / Severnside heating of business premises (4, 6) area (cross boundary with Bristol CC). Need to • Water shortages impacting on water dependent collaborate to bring about critical mass to facilitate industries and domestic users (4, 6) this.

• Decreasing availability or affordability of UWE offer courses on flood defence, new insurance for infrastructure/buildings in flood technologies in water management etc. risk areas (2, 6) IT equipment becoming more efficient, thus • Increased potential for renewable sources of energy (2, 6) reducing heat expelled.

• Increased commercial opportunities in water Reflective coatings on windows to reflect heat management technologies (including flood from the sun. defence and water efficiency) and opportunity for education to encourage activity (4, 4) Air conditioning units increasingly installed (but energy consumption implications).

• Opportunity to encourage people to work from South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | home (3, 3) Business Link guidance ‘Employees working from home’ 88 • Increased tourism opportunities from longer more reliable summers (1, 2)

Figure 58: Climate Change Risks and Opportunities Source: South Gloucestershire Council

86 Short term (now – 2026) and Long term (thereafter) risk rating from 1 (very low risk) to 9 (very high risk), from results of SGC and Partners Climate Change Adaptation Risk Assessment undertaken during July 2009 87 http://www.businesslink.gov.uk/bdotg/action/layer?topicId=1074458463&site=106 69 88 http://www.businesslink.gov.uk/bdotg/action/layer?site=106&=en&topicId=1074446319 6

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

6.12. Flooding Fluvial Flooding

6.12.1. Increased risk of flooding is one of the main 6.12.3. Parts of South Gloucestershire are already risks to business and industry in South vulnerable to fluvial flooding. Flood risk is Gloucestershire associated with a changing anticipated to increase with climate change, climate. Businesses whose premises are with consequent increases in risk of flooded will incur costs for clean–up/repairs flooding affecting public safety, properties, and inevitable loss of money for any days businesses, utilities, ability to insure etc. that business operations are disrupted / suspended. In addition, flooding and flood South Gloucestershire’s Comprehensive damage to infrastructure (such as transport Assessment Plan90 outlines a number of infrastructure) can have negative effects on risk and opportunities: business and its daily operations. There are also issues with increased insurance costs • Damage/disruption to properties (homes, in flood risk areas such as Avonmouth / schools, hospitals, care premises, business Severnside. premises, etc) resulting from flooding and increased storminess. 6.12.2. A Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (2007)89 Local Economic Assessment Economic Local has been undertaken to provide an • Fluvial flood defences unable to cope overview of the flood risk from a variety of with increased flood risk – with associated sources within South Gloucestershire. flooding/disruption of utilities.

Key Findings: • Fluvial flood defences unable to cope with increased flood risk – with • The Avonmouth / Severnside area is associated flooding/disruption of transport susceptible to tidal/surge flooding from infrastructure. overtopping of the tidal defences; • Increased risk to public safety from • The extent of tidal flooding includes much of flooding – immediate health risk/trauma to the low lying land, with the extent of flooding individuals, e.g. drowning. only increasing slightly for more extreme events because of the steep edges of the • Increased risk to public safety from flooding floodplain; – longer term health impacts e.g. anxiety/ • Tidal flooding from overtopping of the isolation, contaminated water. tidal defence is the most serious type of flooding, when compared with flooding that • Large scale new development adding to could occur when the Rhines are full and and/or being susceptible to flood risk. flow over the land (though the hydraulic model was unable to reproduce historic • Transport infrastructure could be fluvial flooding because of the likely ground disrupted by extreme weather including water interaction); flooding, storminess, heat waves, or very cold weather. Disruption to transport • The standard of protection is lowest in infrastructure has implications for between the M4 River Severn crossing and individuals and businesses, and potentially the M48 crossing; and for emergency services seeking to access people or infrastructure and/or health • The likely consequence of defence breach premises. or failure results in high flood hazard along the adjacent land.

89 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/CA512EAA-E2F3-4664-BD49-9A3EBA7CCD16/0/AvonmouthSevernsideSFRA.pdf South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 90 http://www.southglos.gov.uk/NR/rdonlyres/19DA5F93-F954-439D-A4C1-7F9B95E5FD12/0/PTE100100.pdf 70 6 Local Economic Assessment

Surface Water Flooding 6.13. Rural Economy and Local

6.12.4. Surface water flooding is caused when Environmental Quality high levels of rainfall exceed the drainage 6.13.1. South Gloucestershire has a number of rural capacity in an area. Surface water flooding sectors which are not only major sources is likely to cause damage to business of employment but which offer significant premises and cause disruption to transport growth opportunities for the future. networks. It may cause increased land and soil erosion which may have negative 6.13.2. The rural economy is likely to be effected by effects on farming. the transition to a low carbon economy for a number of reasons. 6.12.5. The mitigation of surface water flooding provides commercial opportunities Agricultural Land Classification for business. There are a number of opportunities for mitigating surface water 6.13.3. The Agricultural Land Classification (ALC) flooding including:91 provides a method for assessing the quality of farmland to enable informed choices • Programmes for highway maintenance and to be made about its future use within highway drainage may offer opportunities the planning system. The classification of such as kerb raising or dropping to land is important because it defines the incorporate useful changes to flood flow suitability of land for agricultural production paths. which helps underpin the principles of sustainable development. Factors • programmes to improve water quality (e.g. affecting the grade are climate, site and combined sewer overflow improvements) soil characteristics, and the important or address structural deficiency in drainage interactions between them. Agricultural systems present opportunities to deliver land is split into agricultural grades 1–5. solutions that have multiple benefits; Grade 1 being ‘excellent’ and Grade 5 being ‘very poor’. Agricultural grade 5 • the creation or refurbishment of public accounts for 8.16% of total land in South green space present opportunities to Gloucestershire and the remainder (91.84%) create wetlands that improve amenity and is catergorised into grades 1–4. biodiversity and act as flood storage or above ground conveyance routes, and; Grade Area (Hectares) % South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | • major commercial or housing (re–) 1 3799 1.82% development provides opportunities for new drainage, surface water storage, channel 2 51653 24.69%\ widening and ‘de–culverting’. 3 136169 65.09% 4 516 0.25% • SuDS retro–fit in existing drainage areas, helping to alleviate surface water flooding, 5 17073 8.16% such as from combined sewer overflows. Total 209210 100.00%

Figure 59: Agricultural Land Classification in South Gloucestershire Source: South Gloucestershire Council *Note: This information represents what the land grades are and not what the land is used for.

91 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/flooding/documents/manage/surfacewater/swmp-guidance.pdf 71 6

6. Place: Maintaining Economic Stability

Agriculture and Farming • Skills training and greater community involvement in food production (community 6.13.5. Potential adverse effects on agriculture and gardens, allotments, community supported forestry from changing weather and climate agriculture projects (CSA’s), city/town include potential loss of some traditional farms) will have a beneficial impact, not crops, decreased soil quality; increased only on health and having more resilient soil erosion due to increased run–off, neighbourhoods, but also if people learn need for increased irrigation in summer, to produce their own food, it will reduce the reduced die–off of pests and diseases due risk of food poverty in the most vulnerable to warmer winters, and fewer pollinators. communities. Changes in climate could increase the need for artificial fertilisers and pesticides. • Emissions generated, both in the production, Alongside increasing rainfall and intensity storage and transportation of food. of rainfall this potential increases diffuse pollution from runoff from agricultural land. • Jobs; a more sustainable (and low energy) local food system will create job 6.13.6. South Gloucestershire’s Comprehensive opportunities due to it being a more people Assessment Plan outlines a number intensive system. Local Economic Assessment Economic Local of implications of climate change for agriculture and farming • There is an opportunity to increase the amount of local food grown which will • Risk to agricultural economy. create jobs.

• Effects on pollination – including bees, • Providing skills and training for increased butterflies and moths. productivity for the agricultural sector is needed which will also provide more jobs. • Threats to trees from storms, drought and This will build resilience into the agricultural pests. sector which currently sees the average age of the UK farmer at 60 years. There is also • Reduction in soil quality from impact of a general lack of knowledge of low–carbon water, salinity, drought, wind and use of and sustainable farming systems. fertilisers and pesticides. • As the local authority provides food to Local Food Issues schools, hospitals and care homes, rising global food prices will impact these 6.13.7. There are a number of local food issues budgets. which affect the economy of South Gloucestershire including: • Absenteeism from work due to poor health caused by a diet based on cheap, over– • Increasing local sales of farm produce will processed food products. enhance the profitability of local producers, farmers and growers. Local food • Costs incurred by the NHS on health issues contributes to the local economy as money such as obesity, diabetes etc, often caused spent in farm shops, farmers’ markets and by poor nutrition. local shops remain in the district, benefiting not only the farmer, but the entire local • The development of sustainable local food economy. production will have a positive economic benefit within South Gloucestershire. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 72 6 Local Economic Assessment

Food Security Cost of fuel

• The availability, diversity and price of food 6.13.8. Our current global food system is could be adversely affected by the local dependent on oil not only for the transport and global impacts of climate change on of foods, but also the production and use agriculture. of fertilisers and pesticides. The expected rise in the cost of fuel will make transporting • Cheap food is based on cheap oil and a food more expensive. This will have a dependence on poor wages across the negative effect, particularly on low income world, centralised systems and also the families. Increasing local food production current supermarket ‘just in time’ delivery can have a mitigating effect on such price system. The fuel crisis of 2008 proved our increases current vulnerability in this regard. 6.13.9. Business survey results show that nine • In addition, this could also have an out of ten businesses were concerned increased health impact related to poor about rising energy and fuel prices and nutrition. 60% of businesses monitor their energy

and fuel consumption as well as their CO2 • Availability, distribution and accessibility emissions. of food is central to the debate of food security. 6.13.10. Air Quality

• The effect of resource depletion and 6.13.11. Good air quality is essential for health, the rising cost of fossil fuels will have an quality of life and the environment. While effect as it will make the transport of food UK air quality has generally improved increasingly expensive. over recent decades through regulating industry and progressively tightening • Packaging and refrigeration of food stuffs emissions standards for vehicles, the transported over great distances increases health effects of air pollution are still the use of fossil fuels and in the light of significant. Air pollution has been linked climate change, a low–carbon system is to the worsening of asthma, chronic needed not only to reduce costs, but to bronchitis, heart and circulatory disease preserve existing stocks of fossil fuels. and cancer.

• Food must first be available to persons 6.13.12. Air pollution can arise from a variety of but it must also be accessible in terms of sources, including transport, industry South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | affordability. The effects of climate change and the commercial and domestic and dependency on the current global sectors. The main source of air pollution food system is likely to have an impact on in South Gloucestershire is road traffic. the availability of food, making is vital to This is primarily due to the high level promote a sustainable, local food system. of growth experienced in the area in recent decades, which has led to high rates of traffic growth and increased congestion. There will be continued increasing pressure on the infrastructure, particularly the transport network, from the further development proposed for the area.

92 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/default.asp 95 http://www.oef.com/ 93 http://www.southwestrda.org.uk/ 96  http://economy.swo.org.uk/publications/simulations-projections-and-forecasts/sw-growth- 94 http://www.swcouncils.gov.uk/nqcontent.cfm?a_id=431 scenarios/ 73 6 Map of South Gloucestershire and Air Quality Management Areas SGC Air Quality Management Areas Quality Management Air 60:Figure Source: © Copyright South Gloucestershire Council 2008. All rights reserved. © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. 100023410, 2011. Local Economic Assessment Economic Local 6.13.13. Air quality in South Gloucestershire businesses. The main retail area is along is generally of a good standard when Staple Hill High Street and is classed as compared to national objectives. a town centre. The AQMA in Staple Hill However, local air quality has been is located at the Broad Street (A4175), adversely affected by pollution in certain High Street (B4465), Victoria Street and locations, especially in urban areas with Soundwell Road (A4017) crossroads. high levels of traffic congestion. This crossroads is a busy intersection, which at peak times suffers from Air Quality Management Areas traffic congestion. In addition, where Soundwell Road joins the crossroads, 6.13.14. South Gloucestershire Council has it is narrow and more enclosed by identified three areas where the national buildings. This creates a “street canyon” air quality objectives have not been effect where any build-up of pollutants met. These areas are in Kingswood, may not so easily disperse. Staple Hill and Cribbs Causeway and have been declared as Air Quality Kingswood Management Areas (AQMAs) in relation to the annual mean objective for nitrogen 6.13.16. Kingswood is an urban area on

dioxide (NO2). The figure shows the the eastern edge of Bristol that lies AQMAs are located on the north and directly adjacent to the Bristol / South east fringes of Bristol. Gloucestershire boundary. It consists of a mix of residential and business Staple Hill properties, and includes a busy local shopping centre. The AQMA in 6.13.15. Staple Hill is an urban area located Kingswood is located along Regent to the east of Bristol approximately Street (A420) in the heart of the town 0.5 kilometres from the Bristol / South centre. The A420 (Two Mile Hill Road/ Gloucestershire boundary. It is primarily Regent Street/ High Street) is a major a residential area with retail shops and arterial route in and out of Bristol which South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 74 6 Local Economic Assessment

links with A4174 Ring Road to the east of Kingswood centre. There is a one way traffic system in operation around the centre of Kingswood to help traffic flow. However, the area can suffer from congested traffic, particularly at peak times. A street canyon effect is also created in some sections of Regent Street where the buildings are taller.

Cribbs Causeway

6.13.17. Cribbs Causeway is an area within 2km of the South Gloucestershire boundary to the north of Bristol. The area has undergone continuous development over the last 20 years into a major retail, leisure and business area. The area is served by Junction 17 of the M5 motorway which intersects with the A4018 and the B4055. The AQMA in Cribbs Causeway has been declared in relation to a single property on Blackhorse Hill (B4055) adjacent to the M5 roundabout at Junction 17. improve traffic flow and reduce traffic 6.13.18. The M5 suffers major traffic congestion, related emissions. While health effects particularly at peak times and at are the primary reason for improving air weekends over the summer months quality, the above measures should also with holiday traffic travelling to and from benefit local businesses. the South West. The A4018 is a major arterial route in and out of Bristol for commuting traffic and the road network in the area carries the traffic associated with shopping and leisure activities. Traffic congestion at peak times is also South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | experienced on the B4055 (Blackhorse Hill) which runs roughly northwest through Easter Compton and on to Pilning.

Air Quality Action Plan

6.13.19 The Council is currently developing an Action Plan with measures aimed at improving air quality in the AQMAs. The measures will be mainly traffic related which will aim to ease congestion,

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7. Glossary

Advanced engineering, aerospace and EFFICIENCY SCHEME – The CRC Energy defence (key value sector) – categorised Efficiency Scheme (formerly known as the Carbon by sic 2003: Reduction Commitment) is the UK’s mandatory climate change and energy saving scheme. 2941: Manufacture of portable hand held power tools CENSUS – Is a count of all people and 2942: Manufacture of metalworking machine tools households in the country. It provides population statistics from a national to neighbourhood level 2943: Manufacture of other machine tools not for government, local authorities, business and elsewhere classified communities. 3130: Manufacture of insulated wire and cable COMPREHENSIVE SPENDING REVIEW (2010) 3210: Manufacture of electronic valves and tubes – Is a Treasury–led process to allocate resources and other electronic components across all government departments, according to 3310: Manufacture of medical and surgical the Government’s priorities. equipment and orthopaedic appliances CREATIVE INDUSTRIES – The Department for 3320: Manufacture of instruments and appliances Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) defines the

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local for measuring, checking, testing, navigating creative industries as “those industries which have and other purposes, except industrial their origin in individual creativity, skill and talent process control equipment and which have a potential for wealth and job 3330: Manufacture of industrial process control creation through the generation and exploitation of equipment intellectual property.” 3340: Manufacture of optical instruments and CREATIVE AND MEDIA (KEY VALUE SECTOR) photographic equipment – Categorised by SIC 2003: 3410: Manufacture of motor vehicles 2211: Publishing of books 3420: Manufacture of bodies (coachwork) for 2212: Publishing of newspapers motor vehicles: manufacture of trailers and semi–trailers 2213: Publishing of journals and periodicals 3430: Manufacture of parts and accessories for 2214: Publishing of sound recordings motor vehicles and their engines 2215: Other publishing 3530: Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft 7420: Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy AGRICULTURAL LAND CLASSIFICATION – Agricultural Land Classification provides a method 7440: Advertising for assessing the quality of farmland to enable 7481: Photographic activities informed choices to be made about its future use within the planning system. 9211: Motion picture and video production 9212: Motion picture and video distribution AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AREA – An area, identified by a local authority, which does not meet 9213: Motion picture projection national air quality standards. National air quality 9220: Radio and television activities standards can be found at: http://aqma.defra.gov. uk/objectives.php 9231: Artistic and literary creation and interpretation CARBON REDUCTION COMMITMENT ENERGY South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 76 7 Local Economic Assessment

DECENTRALISATION AND LOCALISM BILL – HOUSING MARKET AREA (HMA) – Is a The Bill would devolve greater powers to councils geographical area which is relatively self– and neighbourhoods and give local communities contained in terms of reflecting people’s choice of control over housing and planning decisions. location for a new home.

DIGITAL INCLUSION – Digital inclusion refers to INCAPACITY BENEFIT – Is a weekly payment the process of bringing the benefit of the Internet for people who become incapable of work while and related technology into all segments of the under State Pension age. population and by doing so reducing the impacts of the digital divide. INDICIES OF DEPRIVATION – Identify areas of multiple deprivation at the small area level. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES AND MARINE RENEWABLE INDUSTRIES (KEY JOB SEEKER’S ALLOWANCE – Is a form VALUE SECTOR) – Categorised by SIC 2003: of unemployment benefit that is paid by the government to people who are unemployed and 3710: Recycling of metal waste and scrap seeking work. 3720: Recycling of non–metal waste and scrap KEY VALUE SECTOR – Are the high value 7430: Technical testing and analysis sectors which contribute significantly to 9001: Collection and treatment of sewage employment and/or economic output in any given area. The sectors are defined by SIC 2003 as 9002: Collection and treatment of other waste identified in the report “Key Business Sectors in 9003: Sanitation, remediation and similar activities the West of England.” 2923: Manufacture of non–domestic cooling and KEY VOLUME SECTOR – Are those sectors ventilation equipment determined to be of significance to the wider 4100: Collection, purification and distribution of economy in terms of high levels of employment. water The sectors are defined by SIC 2003 as identified in the report “Key Business Sectors in the West of 4511: Demolition and wrecking of buildings; earth England.” moving 4524: Construction of water projects NATIONAL EMPLOYERS SKILLS SURVEY – Provides a detailed analysis of the extent and 4532: Insulation work activities nature of employers’ recruitment problems, skills 3120: Manufacture of electricity distribution and gaps and training activity. control apparatus South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment | NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYEMENT OR FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIC MARKET AREA TRAINING (NEET) – A classification of people (FEMA) – Is a spatial area built around a number whom are not studying, employed or training. of identified economic drivers as oppose to rigid authority boundaries. MICROELECTRONICS AND SILICON DESIGN (KEY VALUE SECTOR) – Categorised by SIC GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) – Is a 2003: measure of a country’s overall economic output. 26.1 Manufacture of electronic components and boards GROSS VALUE ADDED – Is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy.

77 7

7. Glossary

PRIORITY NEIGHBOURHOOD – An area which was identified by South Gloucestershire Council as a locality needing additional support in order to improve the quality of life for local residents and make the areas safer and stronger.

SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE CORE STRATEGY – is the key document in our portfolio of Local Development Framework (LDF) planning documents. This document sets out a vision for the area based on evidence, community objectives and the detailed spatial strategy for future development in South Gloucestershire to 2026. It includes policies and programmes for the general location of new development, its type and scale, and the resources to deliver it, as well as protecting what is valued about the area.

Local Economic Assessment Economic Local SOUTH GLOUCESTERSHIRE LOCAL PLAN – Sets out the planning policies for the area up to 2011.

TRAVEL TO WORK AREA (TTWA) – An area in which the majority of the resident population also work.

WORKLESSNESS – Is used to describe those who are economically inactive. The economically inactive are people of working age who are not working, not in full–time education or training and are not actively seeking work. South Gloucestershire Local Economic Assessment Economic Local Gloucestershire | South 78 8 Local Economic Assessment 8. Bibliography

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