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A Global Order in Flux Western Abdication We Must Re-Address Arms Control Europe and the US Have Failed in Syria

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A Global Order in Flux Western Abdication We Must Re-Address Arms Control Europe and the US Have Failed in Syria Special Edition of The German Times for the 56th Munich Security Conference February 2020 Publisher: Detlef Prinz | Executive Editor: Theo Sommer Munich, Germany 36 pages covering who calls the shots and who gets benched on the world stage TRUMP AND XI: SHUTTERSTOCK/JIRAWAT1, ADDITIONAL ARTWORK: TIMES MEDIA/JOHANNA TRAPP A global order in flux Western abdication We must re-address arms control Europe and the US have failed in Syria ations of balance-of-power, fostering alliances Syria’s pseudo-socialist, neo-capitalist LETTER FROM BY THEO SOMMER and creating networks. America’s segue from BY KRISTIN HELBERG economic system has engendered a sym- THE PUBLISHER over-reach to retrenchment, from perennial biosis of entrepreneurs and regime rep- hen the history of these times is interventions to retreat began before Trump, fter almost nine years of civil war, resentatives. More specifically, the liber- As long-time publisher of written, it may well be that the but his unilateralist braggadocio has turned the crisis in and around Syria has alization driven by Assad paired with the The Security Times, I’m Wheadlines of the day – Iraq and an overdue adaptation into an instrument of Anot been resolved. Nonetheless, war economy of the past few years has honored to welcome you the controversies it has aroused – will pale in disruption. it is clear who the winners and losers created a merger of wealth and political- back to Munich for the comparison to other international upheavals At the end of a bruising decade, the rest of in the conflict are. Among the winners power structures. Crony capitalists loyal MSC. This year’s issue is of our period. The center of gravity of world the West must contend not only with a fickle are the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran and to the regime benefit from the privatization perhaps our most vital yet. affairs is moving to the Pacific, and almost all US president but also with a rising China, a even Turkey, to a certain extent. These of public property, from smuggling and major actors on the international stage are resurgent Russia, ongoing cross-border terror- countries have always known what they from monopolies in the service sector. In Wolfgang Ischinger, CEO defining new roles for themselves.” ism, instability and chaos in the Middle East. wanted, have proven ready to do any- other words, power and money are bound of the MSC, and Ger- You may not believe it. This is not a current Despite Trump’s skepticism, the unwavering thing to get what they want, and have to each other in modern Syria. This fact many’s Foreign Minister assessment, but a quote from a Washington Post support of America’s military establishment been able to adapt their strategies to the should be borne in mind when it comes to Heiko Maas kick off our article Henry Kissinger wrote back in 2004. If has empowered NATO to continue function- dynamics of the war. Among the losers handing out humanitarian aid and support- commentary on pages 2 you add Iran to Iraq, it could have been written ing smoothly, yet without a political strategy, are the United States and Europe, who ing reconstruction efforts there. and 3 with their analyses yesterday. Kissinger mentioned all the prob- let alone vision. French President Emmanuel championed the desires of Syrians citi- While entire regions of Syria remain in of the upcoming foreign lems that bedevil us nowadays: the structural Macron’s shocking statement that the Alliance zens for a life of freedom and dignity but ruin, the Syrian pound continues to lose policy season. estrangement of America from Europe; Euro- was suffering “brain-death” has caused NATO did so in a half-hearted manner and with- value and UN figures show more than 80 pean doubts about the reliability of the United Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to begin out any tangible plan. percent of Syrians living in poverty, the On pages 4 and 5, States as a strategic partner; Russia’s post- a thorough review process. It is supposed to As this gap between its words and deeds Assad regime continues to focus exclu- Harvard scholars Graham imperial trauma; China’s emergence as a great devise an up-to-date grand strategy for NATO grew, the West gambled away its credibil- sively on its followers and supporters in Allison and Joseph Nye power; and the break-up of the international to confront the new realities of the 21st century. ity. With its system of international agree- an effort to further secure its power. In the square off on the West’s game plan vis-à-vis China: system. The title of Kissinger’s op-ed piece was One central question is whether the danger ments, moral principles and democrati- case of Aleppo, UN funds are not directed Shore up the defensive “A World in Flux,” and of armed conflict is cally legitimized toward the most line or focus more on soft its central argument: again on the rise. The institutions, the devastated residen- power? “The global scene is Europe must realist’s answer is: It West proved capa- The current state tial areas in the east more fluid than it has will remain a threat, ble neither of help- of the city, which Is Russia a formidable been for centuries.” “learn to speak but an unlikely one. ing the Syrians nor of affairs in Syria used to be adminis- foe or should the US and In fact, we are wit- All powers will wish of ending the war. tered by opposition Europe give-and-go with nessing the third dra- the language of to avoid all-out war. The reality we must is as it always was, forces; instead, the Moscow and tackle the matic geopolitical, They don’t want to now face in the money is flowing to world’s toughest prob- geostrategic and geo- power” fight. Instead they case of the Syrian only worse areas populated by lems as one team? The economic upheaval will pursue disruptive conflict is that lib- those loyal to the international line-up of Ian in the past five hundred years. The first was strategies: hacking, meddling in each other’s eral democracy has failed, and autocracy regime. In the south of Damascus, in an Bremmer, Dmitri Trenin the rise of Europe around the year 1500; the internal affairs and orchestrating disinforma- has triumphed. This outcome is destined area marked by the ruins of bombed-out and Sylvie Kauffmann second, beginning around 1900, turned the tion campaigns. The danger, though, is that to have far-reaching consequences – for middle-class and working-class neighbor- takes the floor on pages United States into the global superpower miscalculation and the logic of escalation will Syrians, the Middle East, Europe and the hoods, the city administration is building 12 and 13. of the 20th century; the third is the shift of turn minor clashes into regional conflagra- world. luxury resorts rather than social housing. power and wealth to Asia, with China push- tions. And transnational issues, especially Syrian president Bashar al-Assad remains Former residents are being expropriated Is peace possible? The ing assertively, even aggressively forward and climate change, mass migration and nuclear in power and is set to regain control of the and/or compensated at ridiculously low Security Times special striving to put its stamp on a world undergo- proliferation, may create quite novel security entire country in the coming months. In costs by the government. teams examine the state ing profound change. problems. Idlib, he will do so by force of arms, and in This kind of activity is immune to outside of play in Ukraine, the The relentless ascent of China has grave Looking at the international landscape, one the northeast, he will do so by means of a influence because the behavior itself guar- Middle East, Libya, Yemen political, economic and military ramifications. cannot fail to notice a number of conundrums. gradual takeover of Kurdish self-govern- antees the survival of Syria’s rulers. After and Afghanistan on pages 17 to 21. Equally disquieting, however, is the ideological Conundrum number one: Trump has ment. In other words, the current state decades of being under the regime’s thumb, aspect. Beijing offers all authoritarians in the boosted US defense expenditures to unprec- of affairs in Syria is as it always was, only society, state institutions and the private And finally, some crunch- world an alternative model to the democratic edented heights – $738 billion in 2020. He worse. sector form a close-knit network of inter- time heroics by Ivan capitalism of the West – autocratic capital- increased the number of troops in Europe Assad’s reign hinges on loyalty to the dependencies. Any real concessions – such Krastev on the big league ism. The American-led multilateral system as well as in the Middle East. But basically regime, which he secures through a system as depriving the secret services of power prospects of Europe (p. 29) that stabilized global relations since 1945 is he does not want to fight wars any more; of clientelism and enforces by means of and ushering in freedom of expression, and Jessica T. Mathews gradually being replaced by “one world, two he wants to bring the GIs home. His way of fear. This results in his two strongest pillars freedom of the press and an independent on the US defense budget systems” – one set of rules and norms for the fighting is with economic leverage. He has of support coming from wealthy business- judiciary – would result in a system fail- (p. 31). liberal West, another for authoritarian China weaponized the two dominant phenomena men and a far-reaching intelligence appa- ure that would threaten the survival of the and its global devotees.
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