Special Edition of The German Times for the 56th Munich Security Conference

February 2020 Publisher: Detlef Prinz | Executive Editor: Theo Sommer Munich, Germany

36 pages covering who calls the shots and who gets benched on the world stage

TRUMP AND XI: SHUTTERSTOCK/JIRAWAT1, ADDITIONAL ARTWORK: TIMES MEDIA/JOHANNA TRAPP

A global order in flux Western abdication We must re-address arms control Europe and the US have failed in Syria

ations of balance-of-power, fostering alliances Syria’s pseudo-socialist, neo-capitalist LETTER FROM BY THEO SOMMER and creating networks. America’s segue from BY KRISTIN HELBERG economic system has engendered a sym- THE PUBLISHER over-reach to retrenchment, from perennial biosis of entrepreneurs and regime rep- hen the history of these times is interventions to retreat began before Trump, fter almost nine years of civil war, resentatives. More specifically, the liber- As long-time publisher of written, it may well be that the but his unilateralist braggadocio has turned the crisis in and around Syria has alization driven by Assad paired with the The Security Times, I’m Wheadlines of the day – Iraq and an overdue adaptation into an instrument of Anot been resolved. Nonetheless, war economy of the past few years has honored to welcome you the controversies it has aroused – will pale in disruption. it is clear who the winners and losers created a merger of wealth and political- back to Munich for the comparison to other international upheavals At the end of a bruising decade, the rest of in the conflict are. Among the winners power structures. Crony capitalists loyal MSC. This year’s issue is of our period. The center of gravity of world the West must contend not only with a fickle are the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran and to the regime benefit from the privatization perhaps our most vital yet. affairs is moving to the Pacific, and almost all US president but also with a rising China, a even Turkey, to a certain extent. These of public property, from smuggling and major actors on the international stage are resurgent Russia, ongoing cross-border terror- countries have always known what they from monopolies in the service sector. In Wolfgang Ischinger, CEO defining new roles for themselves.” ism, instability and chaos in the Middle East. wanted, have proven ready to do any- other words, power and money are bound of the MSC, and Ger- You may not believe it. This is not a current Despite Trump’s skepticism, the unwavering thing to get what they want, and have to each other in modern Syria. This fact many’s Foreign Minister assessment, but a quote from a Washington Post support of America’s military establishment been able to adapt their strategies to the should be borne in mind when it comes to Heiko Maas kick off our article Henry Kissinger wrote back in 2004. If has empowered NATO to continue function- dynamics of the war. Among the losers handing out humanitarian aid and support- commentary on pages 2 you add Iran to Iraq, it could have been written ing smoothly, yet without a political strategy, are the United States and Europe, who ing reconstruction efforts there. and 3 with their analyses yesterday. Kissinger mentioned all the prob- let alone vision. French President Emmanuel championed the desires of Syrians citi- While entire regions of Syria remain in of the upcoming foreign lems that bedevil us nowadays: the structural Macron’s shocking statement that the Alliance zens for a life of freedom and dignity but ruin, the Syrian pound continues to lose policy season. estrangement of America from Europe; Euro- was suffering “brain-death” has caused NATO did so in a half-hearted manner and with- value and UN figures show more than 80 pean doubts about the reliability of the United Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg to begin out any tangible plan. percent of Syrians living in poverty, the On pages 4 and 5, States as a strategic partner; Russia’s post- a thorough review process. It is supposed to As this gap between its words and deeds Assad regime continues to focus exclu- Harvard scholars Graham imperial trauma; China’s emergence as a great devise an up-to-date grand strategy for NATO grew, the West gambled away its credibil- sively on its followers and supporters in Allison and Joseph Nye power; and the break-up of the international to confront the new realities of the 21st century. ity. With its system of international agree- an effort to further secure its power. In the square off on the West’s game plan vis-à-vis China: system. The title of Kissinger’s op-ed piece was One central question is whether the danger ments, moral principles and democrati- case of Aleppo, UN funds are not directed Shore up the defensive “A World in Flux,” and of armed conflict is cally legitimized toward the most line or focus more on soft its central argument: again on the rise. The institutions, the devastated residen- power? “The global scene is Europe must realist’s answer is: It West proved capa- The current state tial areas in the east more fluid than it has will remain a threat, ble neither of help- of the city, which Is Russia a formidable been for centuries.” “learn to speak but an unlikely one. ing the Syrians nor of affairs in Syria used to be adminis- foe or should the US and In fact, we are wit- All powers will wish of ending the war. tered by opposition Europe give-and-go with nessing the third dra- the language of to avoid all-out war. The reality we must is as it always was, forces; instead, the Moscow and tackle the matic geopolitical, They don’t want to now face in the money is flowing to world’s toughest prob- geostrategic and geo- power” fight. Instead they case of the Syrian only worse areas populated by lems as one team? The economic upheaval will pursue disruptive conflict is that lib- those loyal to the international line-up of Ian in the past five hundred years. The first was strategies: hacking, meddling in each other’s eral democracy has failed, and autocracy regime. In the south of Damascus, in an Bremmer, Dmitri Trenin the rise of Europe around the year 1500; the internal affairs and orchestrating disinforma- has triumphed. This outcome is destined area marked by the ruins of bombed-out and Sylvie Kauffmann second, beginning around 1900, turned the tion campaigns. The danger, though, is that to have far-reaching consequences – for middle-class and working-class neighbor- takes the floor on pages United States into the global superpower miscalculation and the logic of escalation will Syrians, the Middle East, Europe and the hoods, the city administration is building 12 and 13. of the 20th century; the third is the shift of turn minor clashes into regional conflagra- world. luxury resorts rather than social housing. power and wealth to Asia, with China push- tions. And transnational issues, especially Syrian president Bashar al-Assad remains Former residents are being expropriated Is peace possible? The ing assertively, even aggressively forward and climate change, mass migration and nuclear in power and is set to regain control of the and/or compensated at ridiculously low Security Times special striving to put its stamp on a world undergo- proliferation, may create quite novel security entire country in the coming months. In costs by the government. teams examine the state ing profound change. problems. Idlib, he will do so by force of arms, and in This kind of activity is immune to outside of play in Ukraine, the The relentless ascent of China has grave Looking at the international landscape, one the northeast, he will do so by means of a influence because the behavior itself guar- Middle East, Libya, Yemen political, economic and military ramifications. cannot fail to notice a number of conundrums. gradual takeover of Kurdish self-govern- antees the survival of Syria’s rulers. After and Afghanistan on pages 17 to 21. Equally disquieting, however, is the ideological Conundrum number one: Trump has ment. In other words, the current state decades of being under the regime’s thumb, aspect. Beijing offers all authoritarians in the boosted US defense expenditures to unprec- of affairs in Syria is as it always was, only society, state institutions and the private And finally, some crunch- world an alternative model to the democratic edented heights – $738 billion in 2020. He worse. sector form a close-knit network of inter- time heroics by Ivan capitalism of the West – autocratic capital- increased the number of troops in Europe Assad’s reign hinges on loyalty to the dependencies. Any real concessions – such Krastev on the big league ism. The American-led multilateral system as well as in the Middle East. But basically regime, which he secures through a system as depriving the secret services of power prospects of Europe (p. 29) that stabilized global relations since 1945 is he does not want to fight wars any more; of clientelism and enforces by means of and ushering in freedom of expression, and Jessica T. Mathews gradually being replaced by “one world, two he wants to bring the GIs home. His way of fear. This results in his two strongest pillars freedom of the press and an independent on the US defense budget systems” – one set of rules and norms for the fighting is with economic leverage. He has of support coming from wealthy business- judiciary – would result in a system fail- (p. 31). liberal West, another for authoritarian China weaponized the two dominant phenomena men and a far-reaching intelligence appa- ure that would threaten the survival of the and its global devotees. of our times – globalization and digitaliza- ratus. Simply put, those who support the rulers in Damascus. By its very nature, the I hope you enjoy our It is a sad story that US President Donald tion. He has exploited economic interde- regime are rewarded, and those who reject Syrian regime itself is incapable of institut- paper, and may reading Trump has been actively undercutting the “lib- pendence in his rivalry with China and in it are punished. ing effective reforms. it enrich your debates on eral international order” the US called into the confrontation with Iran, but also in his The country’s secret services are more This is an important insight for foreign the pressing issues of our being after the end of World War II. He is a relationship with European and Asian allies. powerful than ever. Local militias are actors seeking an effective approach to time. sharp-elbowed nationalist and an unabashed Simultaneously, he has pressed ahead with involved in a variety of illicit activities, negotiations with Damascus. Since 2012, protectionist. His foreign policy – anti-EU, the securitization of microchips, semicon- which include bribery, blackmail, theft and the US and Europe have tried to achieve a Sincerely, skeptical of collective defense and centered ductors and software. The campaign against threatening or kidnapping citizens. In the “credible political transition” in Syria that not on the pursuit of broader interests but Huawei, also focusing on foes and friends years before the war, Syrians were subject includes a transfer of power, a transitional Detlef Prinz rather on “America First” – is erratic, to say alike, is the most egregious case in point. to the despotism of the state alone; today, government, a new constitution and demo- Publisher the least. Trade deficits and a narrow focus on they are at the mercy of non-state and for- freeriding are his benchmarks, not consider- continued on page 10 eign actors as well. continued on page 8 2 The Security Times – Strategy February 2020

parties involved are unlikely to sign BY WOLFGANG ISCHINGER on to a political process and aban- don the goal of military and political hat are Europeans willing victory. and able to do in order In Bosnia and Kosovo, the US Wto secure their wider stepped in and convinced Slobodan neighborhood? This question is by Europe is ready Milošević to engage in peace talks. no means new. But with instability This time, it’s Europe’s turn. growing and the US footprint shrink- For Germany and other EU coun- ing in Europe’s southern periphery, tries, these are very difficult ques- the question regularly returns – and for its close-up tions. On the one hand, military each time with greater force. measures or enforcement measures Encouragingly, it looks as if Europe- In Libya, the EU must demonstrate its willingness mandated by the UN, as rightly con- ans are no longer evading the security sidered by the EU’s chief diplomat, question. Moreover, by hosting peace to become a true geopolitical actor will likely have to be part of the talks in Berlin, the German govern- mix – although when asked about ment – in a concerted effort with the possible need to deploy their other capitals – made a courageous military, German politicians quickly attempt to end one of the most worri- stepped on the brakes. On the other some military escalations at Europe’s hand, Europeans must not be naïve: periphery: the war in Libya. Whatever the contours of their The German government, together engagement in Libya, Europe must with other European countries, suc- ans demonstrated that they finally a geopolitical actor will face its first that affect them – this realization prepare for the long haul. Almost 20 ceeded in hosting Libya’s chief conflict understand that if they don’t try to significant test, while Germany can comes at the worst possible time. It years in Afghanistan and even more parties as well as their many foreign bring peace and stability to Libya, no finally demonstrate how it seeks to comes at a time when the EU is sub- in Kosovo have hammered this point backers. The summit secured, at least one else will. If they want to see an implement its oft-heard pledge to ject to unprecedented centrifugal home. on paper, all relevant actors’ commit- end to a conflict with massive effects take on a greater international role. forces. Ironically, these same forces Either way, Europeans cannot ment to respect the international arms on European security interests, they In many respects, Libya epito- have been stifled – and continue to avoid taking action. Whether in embargo, work toward a permanent themselves must bring it about. mizes the fundamental challenges be stifled – by conflicts like the one the form of migration, terrorism or cease-fire, and revive the UN-spon- Forging the Berlin agreement was currently confronting Europeans: in Libya. After all, it is hard to disen- transnational organized crime, insta- sored political process. the easiest part. What comes next First, what has worked well for tangle the Libyan civil war from the bility at Europe’s doorstep is sure to This is no small achievement. By will be much more challenging. In a considerable amount of time, migration crisis that hit Europe in wreak havoc at home. pushing for this outcome, Europe- Libya, Europe’s resolve to become namely outsourcing to the US the 2015 and provoked a significant rise European attempts to contain task of stabilizing Europe’s neigh- in populist anti-EU sentiment. these troubles and hold conflicts at borhood, is no longer a viable This leads straight to the question bay have regularly produced con- option. Washington is tired of of what Europe can do to secure siderable human suffering – the engaging in far-away conflicts that its surroundings. What can it do to Libyan detention camps are dread- may strongly affect its European help stabilize Libya? The agreement ful proof of this fact. At the con- It is hard to disentangle the partners yet have few – if any – reached in Berlin will not suffice. It ference in Berlin, Germany and its ripple effects on US citizens. must also be enforced. A potential European partners signaled that they Libyan civil war from the Second, where the West fails to cease-fire must be monitored while have awoken to the changing tides. engage, other powers are increas- violations to the arms embargo must The next few weeks – including the migration crisis that hit Europe ingly willing and eager to jump in. be sanctioned. debates at the Munich Security Con- The goals they pursue, however, are And most importantly: How can ference – will give a first indication in 2015 and provoked a often at odds with European inter- the warring parties be motivated to of whether Europeans are able to ests. In fact, ceding leverage to other agree to a verifiable cease-fire? translate this realization into action. significant rise in populist powers rarely gives rise to the kind This is where it behooves German Tough decisions lie ahead. anti-EU sentiment of environment that Europe desires, and EU diplomacy to remember one based on peace, prosperity and the hard lessons learned in Bosnia stability. in 1995: A meaningful cease-fire And third, while Europeans may or peace arrangement can only be WOLFGANG ISCHINGER have come around to recognizing achieved if and when all parties to is chair of the Munich Security the need for a considerably more a military conflict understand that Conference and professor for international security and active European foreign and secu- the road to military victory is defini- diplomatic practice at the Hertie rity policy – a policy of jointly tively closed. Absent the threat of School of Governance in Berlin. engaging in the conflicts and crises military enforcement measures, the

BY PETER H. KOEPF AND Africa has adopted from the Euro- LUTZ LICHTENBERGER peans; he strives for autonomy and toward an “Afrotopia.” here was a time when it The West and the search In addition to our liberal soci- appeared that history was ety, the trans-Atlantic defense Tcoming to an end and alliance is once again up for dis- the future was set to begin. The cussion, but for reasons that differ democratic and capitalist West from those in 1990. Even a German had brought communism and the for its future historian has questioned whether command economies of the East we still really need NATO and the to their knees, not least by dint NATO and the EU loom over the debates at this year’s Munich Security Conference EU. Gregor Schöllgen would like to of an arms race the Soviet Union dissolve these two “anachronistic ultimately couldn’t keep up with. monsters”; as far as he’s concerned, The battle of the two systems they are mere “reminders of a had a clear winner and the era of world seemed ready to become Conference (MSC) in 2007, when again, NATO faces an enemy on cal theorist Ivan Krastev wrote in closed chapter in world politics.” the Cold War seemed finally to One World. Putin fulminated over America’s its eastern flank. somber tones of the “twilight of As Schöllgen lays out in essays pub- have come to an end. At the time, Anything was possible: Confron- concept of a “unipolar world” and This frightens the Eastern Euro- Europe” (see Krastev’s piece on lished in the Frankfurter Allgemeine even the question was occasion- tation would give way to coopera- the “uncontained hyper-use of peans. Having just escaped com- page 29). Zeitung and The German Times, we ally broached as to whether the tion, democracy and peace. military force” by NATO, which munism, they embraced the West, Africa’s Krastev, the Senegalese need a new beginning. North Atlantic Treaty Organiza- That was then. This is now. For had “overstepped its national only to soon realize that unques- scholar and writer Felwine Sarr, But why? Because the EU and tion (NATO) was still necessary the United States, the Russian borders in every way.” NATO and tioning emulation did not yield all has his own doubts about Western NATO no longer function as they now that the USSR and the East- Federation has once again become the EU, he argued, imposed their the expected results. Resistance to hegemony. He does not wish to once did. They are failing to find ern bloc had dissolved. what the Soviet Union had been: will upon other countries while the zeitgeist of globalization grew, further “universalize” the Western common solutions to the problems Other options would have been the enemy. After the dissolution of advancing their military infra- and more and more Eastern Euro- values system African elites have of our time. On the issue of asylum for the Atlantic alliance to inte- the USSR, Moscow was no longer structure “to our borders.” Putin peans increasingly felt that the fallen for. He “refuses to legitimize for refugees, most EU countries grate Russia militarily and work considered to be on equal footing, would no longer tolerate being capitalist system failed to deliver the rat race” and wants to liberate have shown a frightening degree of toward a giant common free so NATO, led by the US, used the patronized and pushed around as them their fair share. the black continent “from all that egotism, while climate change fuels trade area and a “harmonious opportunity to expand its sphere a mere “regional power,” as Presi- In other words, the beacon of degrades the people and extin- fierce debates. The Brits are leaving economic community stretch- of influence eastward. For its part, dent Barack Obama called Russia the future – Western democracy guishes their power and creativ- the EU, while the US president has ing from Lisbon to Vladivostok,” the EU, too, took what fell into its in March 2014. The Russian presi- and modernization – lost its cred- ity.” He seeks to “deliver them fully pronounced NATO “obsolete.” as imagined by Russia’s Vladimir lap. dent ultimately annexed Crimea ibility. In the book he co-authored from the monstrous structures Ever since this verdict, a certain Putin, as well as the creation of a Moscow’s pent-up anger was and supported the separatists with Stephan Holmes, The Light of a relentless global economic specter has haunted the security “unified continental market.” The vented at the Munich Security in Eastern Ukraine. Today, once that Failed, the Bulgarian politi- order.” He wants to shed what policy debate. Could the US actu- February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 3

play, we need a critical mass of will help advance the reform of has guaranteed security and pros- tive’s peace plan, BY HEIKO MAAS countries willing to stand up for key multilateral institutions when perity in Europe for 70 years; it to help get the the norms and rules that have it is necessary to keep them effec- has been our lifeline. Our goal conflict parties his year’s Munich Secu- served us so well. As the world is tive and to adapt them to chang- remains a strong European pillar to the negotiating rity Report diagnoses turning into an ever more inter- ing realities. And we will take the on which our trans-Atlantic alli- table and to restore Tthe world with a condi- connected set of chessboards, initiative to devise multilateral ance rests. Just recently, I sug- compliance with the PICTURE ALLIANCE/DPA tion it calls “Westlessness,” with we cannot flip a coin to deter- solutions for policy areas where gested that NATO embark on a Security Council’s symptoms that include signs of mine our next move. We must new challenges require collec- process of reflection on the politi- arms embargo. Western paralysis amid a loss of uphold the rules of the game and tive action. The recent adoption cal dimension of the Alliance, This Berlin Pro- global significance. Many political strengthen the organizations, of guiding principles on lethal which was endorsed at the NATO cess has only just observers share similar concerns. institutions and alliances that autonomous weapons systems summit. This is a case in point for begun – indeed, While our countries and societies enforce them. This must include by the 125 signatories of the UN NATO’s problem-solving capaci- all sides have increasingly question their own the willingness to reform institu- Convention on Certain Conven- ties – and for democracies and thus far contin- norms and values, the argument tions when they lack effective- tional Weapons is one such area networks of democratic states ued to supply goes, we are losing the power and ness and amend the international where the Alliance has started to more broadly. weapons and will to shape the global order for order where new challenges deliver. International crises right on personnel to the the better. require new norms and rules. The European Union remains Europe’s borders remind us conflict parties Indeed, Western power and heft Prosperity, security and, ulti- the cornerstone not only of Ger- not only of a need for collec- in spite of in the world, both economically mately, peace will otherwise be many’s perspective on multilater- tive action by the West, but and politically, may no longer at stake. alism, but also of our approach to also of our neighbors’ need appear as dominant as they once Last year at the 55th Munich engaging with the world. Brexit for a united Europe. were. But we should not forget Security Conference, my French has just demonstrated that the In Ukraine, we are that this current state of affairs is counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian merits of EU membership are not continuing to work a result of Western success, not and I introduced the idea of an self-evident. The EU was created together with France to a sign of failure. The very system Alliance for Multilateralism. As an as a project for peace and pros- help resolve a conflict at built, led and defended over individual state no longer has full perity; in today’s world of new decades by liberal democracies control over its destiny, we will great-power competition, Euro- around the world – including their need flexible, strong and maneu- peans are becoming increasingly support for open markets – gave verable multilateral formats and aware that it is also their only rise to an international order that forums in order to tackle issues hope of controlling their own was stable and balanced enough to from climate change and secu- fate. Don’t disengage, allow other countries to rise, thrive rity to arms control, global trade During Germany’s EU Presi- and prosper. This should not be a and migration. At a time when dency in the second half of 2020, cause for anxiety or self-doubt, but key principles of the rules-based we will focus on Europe’s posi- rather a source of additional moti- international order and well- tion on the global stage. How shape the change vation to preserve and strengthen established instruments of inter- can we become more resilient in the rules-based system that we national cooperation are being an interconnected world? How helped create in order to get there. challenged, the Alliance for Mul- can we achieve and maintain Germany is convinced that a steady hand The speed, force and ubiquity tilateralism aims to bring together digital sovereignty, and at what of change may no longer surprise those that believe in strong and cost? We will have to continue can make a difference in an unsteady world us, yet it continues to challenge effective multilateral coopera- to improve the competitiveness our capacity to adapt. Globaliza- tion. An international network of of our national economies while tion and digital transformation are states willing and able to mobilize preserving and strengthening our accelerating the global reshuffle partners and leverage our politi- common social standards. Conse- the heart of Europe (the OSCE’s their commitments not to. How- None of this is easy, and success of power and wealth – within and cal influence can solve critical quently, we will need to expand crucial role along every step of ever, this new cycle of escalation is far from guaranteed. But we are between countries. Germany, in issues incrementally, one by one. and deepen existing networks. the way is another testimony to has only solidified the military convinced that a steady hand can concert with other liberal democ- In September 2019, over 60 for- With the EU-China leaders’ effective multilateralism). While stalemate, at increasing cost to make a difference in an unsteady racies, supports the legitimate eign ministers from all continents meeting and the summit between progress is far from satisfactory, both sides. The Berlin Process world. Our untiring efforts will claim of billions of people to met in New York to show their the EU and the African Union, we the past year has seen renewed offers the parties an off-ramp ensure that the future will not be have their say on the global stage. political commitment to the Alli- will emphasize Europe’s global and earnest efforts to improve the from this destructive cycle. We a “Westless” one. There is no reversing the shifts, ance for Multilateralism. Since aspirations and perspectives. humanitarian situation and chart believe it is in their interest (not nor should there be. We should then, the idea and the informal In the field of security and a path toward a peaceful solution. to mention the interest of the be ready to brace ourselves for network have spread. We will defense, close trans-Atlantic On Libya, we have taken the Libyan people) to take this off- change. jointly work to protect and pre- cooperation with the United initiative to corral international ramp sooner rather than later. At HEIKO MAAS In order to peacefully manage serve international norms where States and other European part- actors in support of the United our meeting in Munich, we will is foreign minister of Germany. this change and to penalize foul they come under pressure. We ners will remain crucial. NATO Nations’ Special Representa- work to keep this option open.

MSC

ally leave the Alliance and take NATO’s greatest troubles appear the pieces in Iran and Ukraine? And “weltpolitikfähig,” that is, able to trol agreement known as New Big gestures, big talk (from left all its weapons with it, including to be homemade. Turkish Presi- who will help the Kurds, who may influence global politics, as Jean- START with the Russians. In 2011, to right): In 2019, MSC CEO their nuclear missiles? One year dent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has soon again end up in the torture Claude Juncker argued at the its ratification documents were Wolfgang Ischinger showed up in ago, Congress put to rest any such ordered missile defense systems chambers of Assad? MSC 2018? How can it gain more exchanged in the hotel. Munich his cult-classic EU hoodie. Vitali Klitschko confronted Ukrainian considerations with its NATO Sup- from Moscow, asserted Turkey’s The crises of NATO and the EU influence over global policy and is where politicians from Trans- Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara port Act, which passed the House right to possess atomic weapons are simmering as the more than 500 learn the “language of power,” as nistria and Moldova held secret with photographs of severely of Representatives 357 to 22 and and invaded Syria in violation of experts from the worlds of politics, President of the European Com- meetings, and where Israel’s wounded Maidan demonstrators cleared the Senate by a margin international law. And Europe is science and the military convene in mission Ursula von der Leyen put Deputy Foreign Minister Danny in 2014. On the MSC podium in of 97 to 2. Also, at the top of this sorely lacking a reliable partner in mid-February at the Hotel Bayer- it? These and other issues will be Ayalon and the former Saudi 2012, Senator John McCain held year’s agenda is Defender Europe the White House. ischer Hof in Munich for the 56th discussed at the MSC 2020. Director of Intelligence Prince up the cover of The Security Times. In 2011, Hillary Clinton and 20, the largest exercise contin- When the US makes a decision, Munich Security Conference. Chi- According to Oliver Rolofs, Turki al-Faisal famously shook Sergey Lavrov exchanged the gent of American soldiers to leave the Europeans – often gritting na’s ambitious expansion will also MSC spokesman from 2009 to hands. In the conference hall, ratification documents of the New the US for Europe since the mid- their teeth – have no choice but to be a topic, and Russia even more so. 2016, the big show – that is, the Vitali Klitschko confronted Ukrai- START arms control agreement. In 1990s. comply. Former Assistant US Sec- Should the Western world show events on stage and all the foot- nian Foreign Minister Leonid 2009, Joe Biden (here with Henry But what if the US were to leave retary of State Victoria Nuland gave Putin the carrot or the stick? age broadcast on television and Kozhara with photographs of Kissinger) used the back rooms of Europe? expression to this state of affairs The MSC will also address the the internet – “is the least impor- severely wounded Maidan dem- the Bayerischer Hof to negotiate Could Europe defend itself? in a leaked telephone conversation issue of terrorism; indeed, French tant.” Much more significant for onstrators in 2014. And year after the New START treaty with the Russians. Angela Merkel and Even if Russia’s defense spend- with a colleague in 2014: “Fuck the President Macron is seeking rein- the resolution of global conflicts year, the MSC was a venue where Vladimir Putin were all smiles in ing is equal only to that of France, EU.” Obama’s successor pulled out forcements for the fight against is the shuttle diplomacy between Iranians and Americans could 2007 – until after his speech. Moscow’s mid-range missiles are of the INF Treaty, which prohibited Islamist insurgents in Mali. hotel suites at the Bayerischer actually converse without inter- capable of reaching the heart of the stationing of mid-range nuclear Germany’s defense budget will Hof. Behind the scenes, politicians mediaries. Europe. Would all European missiles in Europe, while the last certainly be a topic. A “country from enemy states can engage in Perhaps this year will bring NATO members honor the mutual remaining disarmament treaty from of our size and our economic and informal negotiations on neutral more Munich Moments – the defense clause to, say, protect the the 20th century, New START, is technological might” can defend its turf. “At the Bayerischer Hof, world could surely use them. Baltic states from Russian aggres- now in peril. Trump terminated the own “global interests,” instead of quarters are so crowded that you sion? nuclear deal with Iran and, with- “simply spectating from the side- simply can’t avoid encountering Such considerations in the Bal- out any consultation with allies, lines,” says a convinced Annegret others, friend or foe,” says Rolofs. PETER H. KOEPF is tics and even in Poland would announced a retreat from Syria, Kramp-Karrenbauer, chairwoman This regularly produces what we editor-in-chief and LUTZ cause teeth-chattering. While which gave Erdoğan the green light of the Christian Democratic Union call “Munich Moments.” LICHTENBERGER Senior majorities in these regions are criti- to launch his offensive from the (CDU) and Germany’s Minister of In 2009, after years of trans- Editor of the The Security Times and The German Times, both cal of the EU, the idea of spurning north. Defense. Atlantic bickering, Joe Biden used published by Times Media in NATO or doubting the value of its Who will cover the costs of the But what does it mean when the back rooms of the Bayerischer Berlin. existence is viewed as nonsense. new arms race? Who will pick up experts say Europe must become Hof to negotiate the arms con- 4 The Security Times – Strategy February 2020

The Thucydides Trap Beyond trade: the confrontation between the US and China

“real motive” is, every action is seventh today. (Although GDP is itself to settle for something less nedy proposed a major revision of ing global financial crises to avoid BY GRAHAM T. ALLISON JR. interpreted in ways that confirm not everything, it does form the than being “Number 1,” Americans America’s strategy in the Cold War. great depressions – and their polit- that bias. substructure of power in relations will increasingly find China’s rise To avoid future confrontations ical consequences. Thus, while ould China and the US Under such conditions, the among nations.) In 1991, China discombobulating and push back. that risked nuclear annihilation, intense rivalry is inescapable, if be stumbling down the competitors become hostage barely appeared on any interna- This is not just another case of the US and the Soviet Union would the brute fact is that neither can Cpath Germany and the to third-party provocations tional league table. But in the past what Washington now calls “great- have to accept serious constraints kill the other without simultane- United Kingdom took at the and even accidents. An event as generation, its GDP has soared: power competition,” but a classic on their competition, and even ously committing suicide, intense beginning of the last century? bizarre and otherwise inconse- from 20 percent of the US level in Thucydidean rivalry in which each compromise. They would have to competition becomes a strategic The possibility will strike many quential as the assassination of an 1991 to 120 percent today (as mea- sees the other as a threat to its find a way to live and let live in a necessity. readers as inconceivable. But we archduke forces one or the other sured by purchasing power parity, identity. world of diverse political systems And as this great drama is should remember that when we principal protagonist to respond. the metric both the CIA and the European hopes that this is just despite diametrically opposed unfolding, where is Europe? say something is “inconceivable,” Doing so triggers a vicious spiral International Monetary Fund use a passing Trumpian detour are values and ideologies. In a bit of Missing in action. Collectively, this is a claim not about what is of actions and reactions that drag to compare national economies). an illusion. Across the Ameri- rhetorical jiu-jitsu, Kennedy stood the European nations have the possible in the world, but rather both toward an outcome neither Although China faces many inter- can political spectrum, attitudes Woodrow Wilson’s long-standing heft and sense to play a signifi- about what our limited minds wanted. nal challenges, there are more rea- toward China have hardened. A call for a “world safe for democ- cant, constructive role. But the can imagine. If Thucydides were watching sons to expect this basic economic nation that Presidents Obama, racy” on its head and insisted that prospect that Europe will punch My answer to the question of today, he would say that China and trend to continue than to bet that Bush and Clinton called its “stra- the priority in the Cold War going anywhere near its weight seems whether we are sleepwalking the US are right on script, com- it will stop soon. With four times tegic partner” is now seen by all forward would have to be to build dimmer today than at this time toward war is “yes.” The last year. As Wolfgang following is a summary Münchau of the Finan- of my argument in four cial Times wrote recently, tweets: First, the risks of Seesaw of power Europe increasingly seems war in the decade ahead resigned to becoming a are eerily similar to those “playground of conflicting faced by Germany and the interests.” UK a century ago. Second, The 5G race provides a the primary driver in what telling example. While the became World War I and performance by the US in what could become World this race has been pathetic War III was clearly identi- – it has no major supplier fied by Thucydides 2,500 of 5G systems – Europe years ago in his analysis has two entries: Nokia of the great war between and Ericsson. While they Athens and Sparta. Third, technically pose, or at least preventing war in this could pose, a serious chal- case will require strategic 2004 2014 2024 lenge to Huawei and Sam- imagination far beyond sung, the US is focused anything seen in Wash- on putting sticks in the ington or Beijing to date. spokes of Huawei wheels And fourth, the potentially GDP (PPP) in billions of dollars and European regulators most helpful but missing appear more concerned actor in this picture is 2004 2014 2024 est. with maintaining what Europe. China 5,760 18,228 35,596 they regard as appropri- At the beginning of the ate competition between 20th century, few could U.S. 12,275 17,393 25,093 Nokia and Ericsson than imagine what the future Source: IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit with finding ways to assist held. In January 1914, them in the global race. All the world’s richest man, the while, China’s cham- Andrew Carnegie, sent pion, Huawei, is plowing New Year's greetings to leaders peting to show which can best as many citizens as the United as a “strategic adversary.” Instruc- a “world safe for diversity.” In that ahead. around the world, announcing exemplify the role of the rising and States, if Chinese workers become tively, Democratic candidates for future, the two rivals could com- If an evil genius intended to jolt a new era of permanent peace. ruling power, accelerating toward as productive as Portuguese work- president are scrambling to find a pete vigorously – yet peacefully – Europeans from their slumber in “International Peace” would, he what could be the grandest colli- ers today (that is, half as productive way to get to the right of Trump to demonstrate whose values and order to motivate a serious effort proclaimed, “prevail through sion of all time. as Americans), China’s GDP will on China. system of governance could best to get its act together, it is hard the Great Powers agreeing to One plausible candidate for the double that of the US. Does this mean that war – real meet the needs of its citizens. to imagine how he could improve settle their disputes by Interna- spark to war is Taiwan. As Taiwan- The impact of this tectonic shift bloody war – is inevitable? No, A millennium earlier, the Song on what could be referred to as tional Law, the pen thus proving ese watch carefully what has been is felt in every dimension of every most certainly not. Four of the emperor, having found his troops the “Trump treatment.” None- mightier than the sword.” One happening in Hong Kong, they relationship – not just between the sixteen cases in the Thucydides unable to defeat a northern Mon- theless, Europeans seem resigned of the most influential books of have grown less and less interested US and China, but between each Trap case file ended without war. golian tribe, the Liao, negotiated to accepting observer status as the decade, The Great Illusion, in living in China’s party-driven of them and other nations. In Asia, Nonetheless, if American and Chi- the Treaty of Chanyuan that rule takers, not rule makers. In published in 1910, sold over two autocracy. The idea of one nation the economic balance of power nese leaders settle for statecraft as established a “rivalry partner- that future, Europe will find million copies. In it, Norman under two systems as a mantle for ship.” The two parties agreed to itself further squeezed between Angell explained that war was a sustaining its autonomy is now compete ruthlessly in some arenas the two giants: to its east, a “sys- cruel “illusion,” as the cost of war dead. If, in riding the surge created and cooperate intensely in others. temic rival promoting alternative would exceed any benefits the by the overwhelming vote against China will most likely In an unusual version of Chinese models of governance,” as the victor could hope to achieve. the mainland earlier this year, the tributary relations, the treaty European Commission recently How then could the assassina- Taiwanese government were to continue challenging required the Song to pay tribute described China, and to its tion of an archduke in Sarajevo make a sharp move toward greater to the Liao, who in turn agreed to west, what some Europeans are spark a conflagration so all- independence, most China watch- America’s accustomed invest that payment in economic, coming to regard as an abusive encompassing that it required ers agree Beijing would have to scientific and technical develop- spouse. historians to create an entirely respond violently. No government position at the top of ment in Song China. In last year’s issue of The Secu- new category of conflict called in Beijing could survive the “loss” Could American and Chinese rity Times, Theo Sommer noted: “world war”? The short answer of Taiwan. If the Chinese response every pecking order statesmen construct a new strate- “The geopolitical rivalry between is: the Thucydides Trap. When included a 21st-century version of gic rationale for a “rivalry partner- the US and the People’s Republic a rising power threatens to dis- the missile tests they conducted in ship” in which they would simul- of China is not going to end. It place a ruling power, alarm bells 1996 that threatened to choke Tai- has tilted especially dramatically in usual, we should expect history as taneously compete and cooper- will be the dominant element of should sound: extreme danger wan’s lifeline of ships delivering oil, China’s favor. As the world’s larg- usual. The goal in recognizing how ate? The two nations will inevi- international politics in the 21st ahead. Thucydides explained this food and other essential supplies, est exporter and second-largest devastating that war would be, and tably be fierce rivals in economic century.” The question this year dangerous dynamic in the case how would the US respond? importer, China is the top trading understanding how such rivalries production and trade, advanced is whether Europe must remain, of Athens’ rise to rival Sparta Most observers have failed to partner of every other major Asian have so often ended in catastro- technology, military capabilities, in Sommer’s words, “a helpless in classical Greece. In the cen- grasp the significance of the tec- country, including US allies. And phe, is to motivate strategists and forming alliances and alignments and clueless bystander.” As we turies since then, this storyline tonic shift in the relative power as an aggressive practitioner of statesmen to rise above history. and demonstrating how govern- watch the US and China stumble has been repeated over and over. of the US and China in the three economic statecraft, Beijing does Since the publication of Destined ments can best meet the needs toward a dangerous collision, The last 500 years saw 16 cases in decades since the end of the Cold not hesitate to use the leverage for War: Can America and China of their citizens. But at the same anyone who cares about inter- which a rising power threatened War. Never before in history has this provides, squeezing countries Escape Thucydides’s Trap? three time, there are other arenas in national peace and security must to displace a major ruling power. a rising power ascended so far, such as the Philippines and South years ago, I’ve been searching for which neither can ensure its most fervently hope not. Twelve ended in war. so fast and in so many different Korea when they resist Chinese what I call “avenues of escape.” I vital national interest of survival As Thucydides explained, the dimensions. To paraphrase former demands. A similar story is emerg- am now most actively exploring without serious cooperation from objective reality of a rising pow- Czech President Václav Havel, ing in Europe. a possibility that would com- the other. These include not only er’s impact on a ruling power is things have happened so fast that China will most likely continue bine President John F. Kennedy’s avoiding war, especially nuclear GRAHAM T. ALLISON JR. bad enough. But in the real world, we have not yet had time to be challenging America’s accustomed insight about a “world safe for war, but also tackling climate is a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of these objective facts are per- astonished. position at the top of every peck- diversity” and a Chinese concept change to sustain a biosphere in Government at Harvard. In ceived subjectively – magnifying The US share of global GDP ing order. If Xi succeeds, China of “rivalry partners.” which human beings can live, pre- 2017, he published Destined misperceptions and multiplying has fallen from almost one-half will displace the US as the pre- After having survived the Cuban venting the spread of the means for War: Can America and miscalculations. When one com- in 1950, to one-quarter at the end dominant power in East Asia in his Missile Crisis, and just five months and motives for mega-terrorism, China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? petitor “knows” what the other’s of the Cold War in 1991, to one- lifetime. Unless the US redefines before he was assassinated, Ken- containing pandemics and manag- February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 5

SHUTTERSTOCK/SERG_DIBROVA

BY JOSEPH S. NYE JR.

ith the end of the Cold War, many believed Wthe West had pre- vailed. In his 1992 book The End of History and the Last Man, Fran- cis Fukuyama wrote that human- ity had reached “the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of West- ern liberal democracy as the final form of human government.” A few years later, Samuel Hunting- ton issued a gloomier prognosis in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order that “the rise of China and the increasing assertiveness of this ‘biggest player in the history of man’ will place tremendous stress on international stability in the early 21st century.” Western civilization did not exist in full flower until 1500, and before 1800, Asia was home to more than half the world’s population and world economy. By 1900, however, while Asia still represented more than half the world’s population The mild West it constituted only 20 percent of the world economy. The industrial revolution in Europe and North The US and Europe hold a hand America and domination of the seas had made Europe the center that's too good to fold of the global balance of power until it tore itself apart in World War I. After the United States tipped the outcome of the war, it was clear that the country featured not only the world’s largest economy but was also crucial to the global bal- ance of power. However, the US failed to act in its new role, and instead continued to behave as a free rider in the provision of global public goods, a role that Britain could no longer afford. Lacking a global government, and gender identity that had polar- seemed hopelessly dependent on The US has been at the forefront ent kind of disruption. Rather than China has little interest in liberal- the world depends on the larg- ized the American electorate. imported energy. Now the shale in the development of key tech- acting like a revolutionary power ism or Western domination. We est country to provide order and Trump successfully linked white revolution has transformed it from nologies (bio, nano, information) in the international order, China will need to think in terms of an global public goods; in the nine- resentment over the increasing vis- an energy importer to exporter. At that are central to this century’s may decide to be a free rider like “open and rules-based” world teenth century, the Pax Britannica ibility and influence of racial and the same time, China is becom- economic growth, and Western the US in the 1930s. China may order to manage economic and contributed security, economic ethnic minorities to foreign policy ing more dependent on energy research universities dominate act too weakly rather than too ecological interdependencies like stability and protection of global by blaming economic problems imports, while much of the oil it higher education. In a 2017 ranking strongly and refuse to contribute climate change. commons such as freedom of the on bad trade deals and on immi- imports is transported through by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, to an international order it did not Ideological differences will per- seas. Instead, the US “returned to grants competing for jobs. In Janu- the Indian Ocean and the South none of the top 20 global universi- create. sist over values like human rights, normalcy” and there was no liberal ary 2017, Martin Wolf wrote in The China Sea, where the US and its ties were Chinese. On the other hand, China knows but this should not prevent nego- Western order in the 1930s. The Financial Times: “We are at the end allies maintain a significant naval China is investing heavily in it profited from the post-1945 tiations and institutions from result was a disastrous decade of of both an economic period – that presence. research and development. The Western international order. China managing interdependencies. Even global economic depression, geno- of Western-led globalization – and The US also has demographic country also now competes well is one of the five countries with as he worried about conflicts of cide and eventually World War II. a geopolitical one, the post-cold strengths. Seven of the world’s in some fields – including artificial veto power in the UN Security civilizations two decades ago, Hun- Leaders like Franklin Roosevelt war ‘unipolar moment’ of a US-led 15 largest economies will face a intelligence – and its technological Council. China is now the second- tington proposed a “commonali- saw the mistakes of US isola- global order.” progress is no longer based solely largest funder of UN peacekeeping ties rule: peoples in all civilizations tionism and created the Bretton What comes next? Realists argue on imitation. However, a success- forces and participated in UN pro- should search for an attempt to Woods institutions in 1944 and the that world order rests on the global ful Western response will depend grams related to Ebola and climate expand the values, institutions and United Nations in 1945. A turning balance of power and that a rising upon steps taken at home. change. practices they have in common point was Harry Truman’s postwar China is not interested in a liberal China is not In short, the US and the West China has benefited greatly from with peoples of other civilizations.” decisions that led to permanent or Western order. Some go further hold high cards in this poker game, economic institutions, but it has More recently, in 2017, Bill alliances and a continual military and predict a “Thucydides Trap” in interested in but we must resist hysteria if we are started its own Asian Infrastruc- Emmott wrote in The Fate of the presence abroad. The US invested which war between a rising power to play our hand skillfully. Discard- ture Investment Bank and its Belt West: “Yes, the barbarians are heavily in the Marshall Plan in and an established power tears the kicking over ing our high cards of alliances and and Road Initiative of interna- at the West’s gates. Certainly, 1948, created NATO in 1949, led a world apart, much as Europe suf- international institutions would be tional infrastructure projects that China’s pressure to dominate its UN coalition that fought in Korea fered in 1914. the card table a serious mistake. If the US main- some see as an economic offen- neighborhood and be treated as in 1950, and in 1960, signed a new But these gloomy projections tains its alliance with Japan, China sive. China has not practiced full an equal partner to the US is hard security treaty with Japan. rest on exaggerations of China’s but in tilting cannot push the US beyond the reciprocity as a market economy, to deal with.” But in his view, “the These actions were part of a real- power and Western weakness. first island chain, because Japan is a and its rejection of a 2016 Hague response begins with allies, friend- ist strategy designed to contain China’s economy is about two- the table to major part of that chain. tribunal ruling regarding the South ships and legitimacy: … the greatest Soviet power, but containment was thirds that of the US, and an even Another possible mistake would China Sea raised many concerns. assets the West has.” interpreted in various ways. Ameri- smaller fraction if Europe, Japan, pocket more be to try to cut off all immigration. Thus far, China has tried not to And as I argue in Do Morals cans had bitter debates over inter- Australia and other Western allies When asked why he did not think overthrow but rather increase its Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy vention in developing countries are included. winnings China would pass the US in total influence over the Western world from FDR to Trump, the future of like Vietnam and, more recently, China is a country of great power any time soon, former Prime order from which it benefits, but the West is put at risk more by the Iraq. strength but also important weak- Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan this could change as Chinese rise of nativist populism at home But while interventions were nesses. The US has some long- Yew cited the US ability to draw power grows. than by the rise of China abroad. highly contentious, the liberal term power advantages that will shrinking workforce over the diverse and creative talents from The Trump administration The answer will depend on our institutional order enjoyed broad persist. One is geography. The next decade and a half, but the around the world and recombine labeled China a revisionist power, choices. support until the 2016 election US is surrounded by oceans and US workforce is likely to increase them in a way that was not possible but so far – unlike Hitler’s Ger- when Donald Trump became the neighbors that are likely to remain by 5 percent while China’s will for China’s ethnic Han nationalism. many or Stalin’s USSR – it reflects first candidate of a major party to friendly. China has borders with decline by 9 percent. China will If Trump’s populism leads the US that of a moderate revisionist. JOSEPH S. NYE JR. attack it. His populist appeal rested 14 countries and has territorial soon lose its superlative popula- to discard its high cards of external China is not interested in kicking is a professor at Harvard on the economic dislocations of disputes with India, Japan and tion rank to India, while its work- alliances and domestic openness, over the card table but in tilting University and author of globalization that were accentu- Vietnam that set limits on its soft ing-age population already peaked Lee could be proved wrong. the table to pocket more winnings. Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR ated by the Great Recession in power. in 2015. Many Chinese say they As China’s power grows, some As Chinese power grows, the to Trump (Oxford University 2008 along with cultural changes Energy is another American worry about “growing old before worry we are destined for war, but West’s “liberal international Press, 2020). related to race, the role of women advantage. A decade ago, the US growing rich.” few consider an altogether differ- order” will have to change. 6 The Security Times – Strategy February 2020

BY VOLKER PERTHES

he rivalry between the United States and China Thas become a guiding paradigm of international rela- tions, shaping strategic debates, but also real political, military and economic dynamics. This is not to say that competition between Washington and Beijing – or even great-power rivalries in general – determines all other international problems and con- flicts. However, Sino-American competition increasingly pro- vides the framework through which various actors view signifi- cant events and developments. At least for the US, the strategic rivalry with China has replaced the “war on terrorism” paradigm that had prevailed since 2001. In 2017, the US government began calling China a “long- term strategic competitor” in its national security strategy. NATO, in its London Declaration of December 2019, spoke for the first time of the challenges – but also the opportunities – arising from China’s weight and inter- national policy. China’s political LINCHEVSKA SHUTTERSTOCK/MARINA elite is convinced – and probably rightly so – that the US intends to contain the expansion of Chinese influence. Disputes over trade policy or trade balances are indeed at the forefront of public statements by US President Donald Trump and The new global paradigm have a direct impact on the world economy. Nevertheless, trade dis- America, the People’s Republic and the complexity of their rivalry putes are only one aspect of the rivalry, and by no means the most important one. Only by under- standing the multidimensionality of the US-Chinese conflict con- a threat to its own military bases petition is primarily about the the development and export of indirectly affected by the Sino- Europe has begun to develop its stellation can we find appropriate and to its alliance system in the distribution of real and relative technologies that enable new American rivalry. Europe’s view own instruments for achieving a policy responses and develop the Indo-Pacific region. economic gains, it is also relevant forms of social control might be of China has also become more confident, prudent policy towards necessary instruments. Economic competition and to security policy and linked to used by authoritarian regimes in critical, not least in view of China’s China, such as a European invest- The global balance of power conflicts over trade and eco- geopolitical as well as political their own realm as well as to help more aggressive regional posture, ment-screening scheme supple- and the status of the two powers nomic policy form a real and dis- and ideological aspects, which is promote the spread of illiberal the authoritarian hardening at mented by national legislation. in the international system is tinct dimension of the rivalry. US evident in the debate on the use models of government to other home, the spread of “alternative” Europe should not only consider one key issue. Trump seems to criticism of unfair competition of Chinese components in the parts of the world. (i.e. authoritarian) ideas of govern- its own resilience vis-à-vis China; regard superiority, especially or breaches of rules by China is development of 5G networks and This concern over ideological ment in other parts of the world, it should address its international military dominance, as an end widely shared in Europe. The other future-oriented and critical influences is not limited to one and Beijing’s attempts to censor engagement. in itself, not primarily as a means trade conflict is closely linked to infrastructure. side. Decision makers in Western the international debate on China Many states and societies in to advance certain interests and global governance issues, which Concerns are not only related democracies sometimes underes- and its policies. Asia and Africa appreciate Chi- values. are of vital importance, especially to the risk of espionage or sabo- timate how threatened Chinese In a strategy paper published in na’s economic commitment as For his part, President Xi Jin- from a European perspective. tage. More important, perhaps, leadership still feels by liberal spring 2019, the EU defined China well as its Belt and Road Initiative ping is apparently driven by a This applies, for example, to the is the fact that technology is not values and worldviews. Human as a “systemic rival,” as well as an but fear dependence on China. vision of an order “with Chinese future of binding, multilateral value neutral. The sooner tech- rights, the rule of law and lib- economic competitor and a coop- The goal here is to offer alterna- characteristics” in which superi- trade rules and institutions. nological developments touch eral democracy continue to have eration partner for Europe “with tives without forcing or trying to ority is both a means and an end. strong appeal in relevant parts of whom the EU has closely aligned pressure these states into aban- But the competition between the Chinese society. objectives” – not least in tackling doning their relations with China, rising and the established super- This explains the Chinese state climate change and other global which they must see as advanta- power also has its own economic, leadership’s nervousness when challenges. “Decoupling” – that is, geous. technological, ideological and looking at events in Hong Kong, cutting technological, scientific or The EU’s connectivity strat- security-related dimensions. Per- Decision makers in as well as their seemingly exag- economic ties with China, as advo- egy towards Asia as well as the sonalities of the figures involved gerated fear of color revolutions cated by various segments of the infrastructure funds provided play a role as well. Western democracies and their massive effort to find US political spectrum – is simply by the European Investment Influence on other states, technocratic solutions designed to not an option for the EU. Bank for sustainable infrastruc- regions and societies is yet sometimes underestimate secure the rule of the Communist Democracies will have to meet ture projects in Africa are useful another factor at stake. From a Party and, ideally, a “harmonious the challenge of China’s growing approaches. In general, European Chinese perspective, the US will how threatened Chinese society.” influence in the world and Bei- states should strengthen their never voluntarily grant China leadership still feels by The Sino-American rivalry jing’s attempts to international- practical commitments to the greater international influence. extends beyond the bilateral rela- ize its own authoritarian model, UN and other multilateral orga- In the US, China is regarded as liberal values and tionship. It also has global impact while taking care not to under- nizations. They will also have to a revisionist power striving for on, among other things, the work mine economic and technical fill the vacuums left by Washing- global supremacy in the long worldviews of international organizations and cooperation, interdependence or ton’s withdrawal or lack of inter- term. More balanced positions regional development, even within the foundations of multilateral est. And all the while, Europe can exist in both countries, but their Europe. While the Trump admin- order. Under the paradigm of the demonstrate in a practical sense influence on the public discourse istration undermines or withdraws strategic rivalry with China, US how its understanding of multi- is marginal. from existing multilateral institu- and US-influenced debates tend lateralism and the international At the same time, perceptions In contrast to the past 30 years, on fundamental questions of tions, China is building new inter- to overemphasize the vulnerabili- rule-of-law differ fundamentally of military threat are increas- bilateral trade between the US political order – be it in data national fora and organizations ties that come with interdepen- from China’s Sino-centric multi- ing in China and in the US with and China is no longer a stabi- acquisition and use, artificial that correspond to Beijing’s own dencies. The stabilizing effects bilateralism. regard to the respective other. A lizer with the ability to balance intelligence or biotechnology – ideas of order. of such relations, especially the classic security dilemma is gradu- out political conflicts. Instead, the more strongly technological China also increasingly con- interest of antagonistic powers ally developing, where efforts by the rivalry between the two competition becomes linked to tributes to and participates in the in maintaining mutually beneficial VOLKER PERTHES one state to strengthen its secu- powers will continue to have a the politico-ideological dimen- activities of the United Nations relations, are too often forgotten. is CEO and director of the rity reinforce the feeling of inse- decisive impact on international sion of strategic rivalry, that is, and its sub-organizations. While For Europe, but even more so Stiftung Wissenschaft und curity in the other. politics, even if Washington and the competition between liberal- the US, as but one example, has for countries in the Asia-Pacific Politik (SWP), the German This is particularly true in the Beijing conclude a comprehen- democratic and authoritarian left the UN Human Rights Coun- region, such as India, Japan, the Institute for International and Security Affairs. SWP explored maritime sector. China is expand- sive trade agreement before this concepts of society. cil, China is actively using this ASEAN community and Austra- the multidimensionality of the ing its fleet to secure supply fall’s US presidential elections. In the US, both the rise of forum to relativize the importance lia, abandoning interdependent US-China rivalry in a recent routes, extend its influence and The technological dimension China and the idea of being over- of individual human rights. relations with China is not an research paper titled Der amerikanisch-chinesische prevent containment by US bases of this rivalry would also survive taken by the competitor are rais- And Europe? option. Yet all these states can Weltkonflikt (The American- and allies; the US sees China’s a settlement of the trade dis- ing fears. In Europe, the focus The European Union and its do better in avoiding unilateral Chinese world conflict). growing military capabilities as pute. While technological com- is more on how and whether member states are directly and dependencies. February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 7

Divorce settlement Brexit is a challenge shared by the UK, the EU and the US

PICTURE ALLIANCE/AA

BY NICHOLAS BURNS

lobal leaders congregat- ing at the annual Munich GSecurity Conference this year must wrestle with a multi- tude of crises. The coronavirus pandemic is imperiling people in every region of the world and may threaten global economic growth and stability. The Middle East has been upended by an uneasy US-Iran truce after the attack on Qassim Soleimani. US President Donald Trump’s ill-advised Middle East Peace Plan has exacerbated tensions, and fierce fighting in Libya, Syria and Yemen continues. Europe is wrestling with divisions over 5G, how to handle Russian troublemaking and the fact that China is suddenly at its doorstep seeking expanded influence on the continent. Add Brexit to the list of Munich challenges that have made the first six weeks of 2020 unusually destabilizing and worrisome. While some see Brexit as yesterday’s story after the United Kingdom’s formal exit from the European Union on Jan. 31, its reverberations will be felt for months and years to come in an unsteady Atlantic Alliance. Brexit’s most troubling impact Brexit, stage left: Staff members permanently remove the Union Jack from the Council of the European Union in Brussels on Jan. 31, 2020. will of course be felt by the people of the UK. While Prime Minister of Union – the United Kingdom at a time when demographics also ing for stiff sanctions against a backroom role in translating dis- global leader of its vast and often Boris Johnson can take credit for of Great Britain and Northern favor the Catholic population recalcitrant and avaricious Putin. tant and often difficult-to-read underestimated Commonwealth. engineering a surprisingly swift Ireland. No country has played there, the previously powerful The UK will be missed in Brussels, Americans to European lead- A revived UK will be critical in resolution to Britain’s tortuous a more vital, continuous and, at Protestants may slowly melt into especially at a time when France ers on the continent and then helping the democratic West to three-and-a-half-year debate, there times, dominant role across the the embrace of the more prosper- and Germany are divided strategi- translating French Gaullists and meet its greatest test in the coming are rocky waters ahead. world during the last three cen- ous south over the next decade cally on pivotal issues concerning German Social Democrats back decades – to sustain and promote The UK has just 11 months to turies. It now faces a possible frac- or two. Europe’s future. to Washington. democracy, the rule of law and an negotiate the formal terms of its turing and even dissolution over Beyond the UK, not enough American leaders in both the The UK’s voice and weight will open internet in the trans-Atlan- divorce from Europe in 2020. the next decade or two. The Scot- has been made of the damaging Trump and Obama administra- also be missed in Brussels at a tic world and beyond. That is the These negotiations will test the tish National Party is actively con- impact Brexit will have on the tions have watched the Brexit time when Europe is experienc- challenge China and Russia, as well ingenuity, patience and energy of templating the advantages and dis- European Union itself. Think of it debate play out in the UK with a ing a moment of self-doubt, as as lesser authoritarians in Turkey, both London and Brussels. advantages of seceding from the this way: On Jan. 31, the EU lost its degree of detachment. They are Putin and Xi seek greater influ- Hungary and countries at Europe’s After nearly a half century as a UK to join a European Union, a second largest economy, its stron- in for a rude awakening. ence in the East Mediterranean populist fringe, pose to what made member of the EU, Johnson must popular notion among Scotland’s gest and most deployable military In many ways, the UK is still and Balkans and anti-democratic the UK, the US and Europe forces now disentangle the EU’s regula- five million inhabitants. and its most globally oriented and America’s most trusted friend populists across the continent for good during the last half cen- tory tentacles from the British And could Brexit ultimately lead sophisticated member state. Over and ally. One underreported challenge the status quo and the tury. market, initiate formal trade agree- to the unification of Ireland with the past five decades, successive aspect of our alliance has been ideals of the EU itself. Brexit has opened up a Pando- ments with the EU, the US and its capital in Catholic Dublin? British governments have acted to the decades-long middleman role Looking ahead, perhaps the ra’s box of challenges for the UK, dozens of other countries, rethink Who would have dared predict temper French statism, align at key played by British governments as most we can hope for is a period Europe and the US. They must the country’s entire global net- such an outcome even five years moments with German chancel- an interpreter of sorts between of national rest, recuperation recognize what’s at stake and act work of political and commercial ago? Very few of us in the sprawl- lors from Willy Brandt to Angela Washington and Brussels. When and reflection for the exhausted together to defend the principles partnerships and decide how close ing Irish diaspora in North Amer- Merkel and speak for many EU I was Under Secretary of State, British. They might then be in a and policies at the heart of our to stay to the EU on issues rang- ica and Australia ever dreamed countries – such as the Nether- more than once I asked my Brit- better position to recover from democracies. ing from the faltering Iran nuclear that the land of our ancestors (in lands, Denmark and Poland – to ish counterparts in the Foreign the economic, political and social deal to climate change. He will also my case paternal grandparents) ensure the EU maintained close Office, whom I trusted com- dislocation that is likely to follow NICHOLAS BURNS need to construct a renewed special would ever see Britain’s 700-year ties with the US across the Atlan- pletely, to pass messages to and their divorce from Europe. is the former US Ambassador relationship with a US led by the domination of the Catholic popu- tic. intercede with my counterparts With steady leadership in to NATO. He is currently erratic and unpredictable President lation abated. But such is the seis- Since the Cold War’s end, the in Paris and Berlin during the Downing Street, the UK could Professor of the Practice of Trump. mic impact of Brexit and its long UK has been a dependable bridge occasional tempests we experi- refashion itself as a close friend Diplomacy and International Politics at Harvard's John Brexit’s most profound impact reach across the Irish Sea. Given to new EU and NATO members enced across the Atlantic. and trading partner of the EU, F. Kennedy School of will be on the former global super- the fact that Northern Ireland will in Eastern Europe. It has been a Since the 1970s, British Prime a strengthened and reconfirmed Government. power assembled in the 1707 Act remain in the EU Customs Union strong and steady voice in argu- Ministers have played a unique NATO ally, and a committed

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and its ability to deliver them), BY HERFRIED MÜNKLER the European Union (yet only on the condition that it develop a ill the American greater ability to negotiate as a century indeed give collective) and presumably India. Wway to the Chinese There will also be a second tier of century? While this may be the powers – and then all other states case in terms of industrial pro- that are objects and not subjects duction, it will be some time of this international order. The before China can dominate the US and the EU will perhaps international order and become cooperate more closely with one the actor dominating the globe. another than with others, but the At the moment, the US com- old West will be a thing of the mands the economic potency past. and the military might to pursue International systems without its global interests. China, on the custodians function most reliably other hand, will not possess such if each member of the system is resources for at least another A world without a keeper prone to forming coalitions with decade, and perhaps for even all other members; thus, each longer. America’s retreat is giving rise to a new world order that player must carefully consider Chinese leadership is, in fact, which opposing coalitions it will not targeting global domination, lacks legal foundations and ethical norms provoke through its negotiations. but rather large-scale zones of This new world order lacks legal influence. In its crosshairs are foundations and ethical norms and Southeast and Central Asia as SHUTTERSTOCK/CURRAHEESHUTTER rests solely on unilateral calcula- well as parts of Africa, not world- tions and self-interest. In terms wide supremacy, as such grand ing current developments in the Thus, it is soft power rather that lar system of alliances – could par- whelm their custodians. Paul of normativity, this is a great leap ambitions would overtax China’s Middle East as well as the neigh- best characterizes the duties of a ticipate, and entrance to the club Kennedy has spoken of “imperial backward. resources and capabilities. boring Black Sea region. These custodian. But when necessary, was contingent on a proportional overstretch.” It says a lot that the decade The foreseeable transformation areas are rife with hegemonic the guardian must also muster contribution to the provision of In other words, a custodian can ahead of us is already marked by of the international order, there- conflict like that between Saudi hard power to secure that order these goods. This prevented free- only persist if the common goods the emergence of such a system. fore, does not entail the emer- Arabia and Iran, which functions prevails. loaders and minimized the general for which he is responsible are The further this development gence of a new “world’s police- as a magnet dividing the region By no means do these custo- burden of the custodian. transformed into club goods. For progresses, the more meaningless man,” but rather a fundamental into friend or foe while drawing dial systems need to have global At the beginning of the 1990s, all this reason, contrary to expecta- and ineffectual becomes any policy reconfiguration of this order. The in neighboring powers, as is cur- dimensions; they can be limited this changed, as it was expected tions prevalent in Germany, the that attempts to adhere to the old existing world order relies on the rently the case with Turkey. to specific regions. In the second that the West would undergo a United Nations will never be able model of order and that focuses presence of a custodian, but there The range of tasks facing a cus- half of the 20th century, “the global expansion. Club goods to assume a global custodial role, on moral suasion, international is no country willing to step up todian of transnational order is West” – Western Europe and the then reverted to common goods, however desirable such a scenario standards and other elements that and assume this responsibility. as complicated as it is demand- US – was one such system, as was to which all had access, even may be under normative condi- would call for a custodian the likes The US no longer wants it; China ing – the oft-used term “world’s the Eastern Bloc. In the West, the those who did nothing to con- tions. of which no longer exists. is unwilling and unable to pick up policeman” falls far short of cap- US was the custodian, in the East, tribute to their availability. As a But what does this mean for the This goes particularly for Ger- the mantle; and the same is true turing all the facets of the role. the USSR; their roles were similar, result, the burden on the custo- current transformation of our many’s foreign policy, which for the Europeans. At the dawning “Investor in common goods” while the means of executing their dian grew, whether or not it was international order? It says a lot already often seems stale and of our new decade, we are thus comes considerably closer to the roles varied significantly. prepared or even able to shoul- that the reconfiguration is leading rather helpless. It has the propen- equipped with an international mark. Such common goods can This bipolar system was not der it. Under President Barack to a system without custodians. sity to warn against developments order that ought to have a guard- be an international currency that truly global, as it was mainly lim- Obama, the US slowly retreated The result will be an international that have long since become fixed ian to enforce normative rules and connects national economies with ited to the Northern Hemisphere, from its global commitments, and order with fewer regulations realities. Yet, the more one adapts regulations, but such a guardian one another, or a binding interna- but it had considerable radiance under President Donald Trump it and a reduction of its normative to the new constellations, the no longer exists. tional law of commerce, or even from the north into the global demonstrably turned its back on framework. In short, the proj- more effectively Berlin can con- This is a politically perilous situ- the organization of transnational south. It was a system with tiered them. “America First” became the ect of adjudicating international tribute to making Europeans the ation. There is a growing risk that goals like limiting climate change ambitions and expectations. catchphrase for this retreat, and policy is over. subjects – not objects – of the new misunderstandings and political and preserving biodiversity. But Spatial limitation and the grada- it applied not only to the interna- In its wake, a series of major world order. power vacancies will lead to con- the role can also include security tion of obligations were beneficial tional order, but increasingly to players will determine the global frontations and ultimately to wars policy tasks like mitigating arms to the responsibilities of the cus- the former West as well. order, and they will only forge that no one wants. races by issuing security guaran- todian, as goods that were once If China does not assume the agreements among one another What happens when large tees, for example in the form of common became club goods. As responsibility temporarily shoul- that are in line with their own HERFRIED MÜNKLER is a professor of political swaths of political geography are nuclear protection umbrellas to a consequence, at the blessing of dered by the US, it’s because it interests. These major players science at Humboldt lacking a sorely needed custodian stem the proliferation of atomic the custodian, only those who has recognized that global sys- will include the US, China, Russia University in Berlin. can be ascertained by examin- weapons. belonged to a club – i.e. a particu- tems always ultimately over- (above all for its nuclear weapons

Continued from page 1 Western abdication cratic elections under UN supervi- date the very regime structures instead, they see it as the pursuit within the state in order to secure sion – none of which have come that led to the uprising nine years of a strategy of pure self-interest. its own military, political, eco- to pass. ago. Of course, these leaders have nomic and social influence. The The mantra repeated by heads What unsuspecting politi- no problem with Assad's authori- recently murdered General Qassim of state and foreign ministers in cians, journalists and bloggers tarianism, and this means that the Soleimani was in the process of the West – that is, their insistence perceive as stability in Syria is Syrian regime can do whatever it setting up Syrian paramilitary that resolving the conflict requires actually nothing more than what wants on the domestic front. Not groups modeled after the Iranian a political rather than military solu- we would call Friedhofsruhe in even the Kremlin can influence Revolutionary Guards and fight- tion – has become an embarrassing German, namely that deathly Assad's secret services. As a result, ing for Assad under local leader- phrase. It exposes the West's lack calm felt in cemeteries. Assad there can be no security guaran- ship. Iran’s goal there is to repeat of strategic vision and sheer inabil- needs the money to reward his tees from the Russian side for any in Syria what it achieved with ity to act. cronies, to pacify the militias, to Syrians wishing to return to their Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hashd

This mantra disregards one of AND DIVE SHUTTERSTOCK/FLY draw supporters closer to him home country. al-Shaabi in Iraq. This would com- the most basic rules of diplomacy: Aleppo in ruins, 2019. through better living conditions The efforts made by the three plete the Shi'ite “axis of resistance” that a negotiated solution is only Europeans with no plan at all; a Damascus to be shown “normal and to maintain the secret service interventionist powers in the extending from Tehran via Bagh- possible when all parties to the blocked UN Security Council; and, everyday life” and the “stable secu- apparatus. He has no interest in Syrian civil war have paid off. dad, Damascus and Beirut all the conflict no longer see the point finally, the ignorance of the world rity situation” by regime represen- the return of Syrian refugees from Although Ankara moved away way to the Mediterranean and to in continued fighting. The situa- community. tatives, will automatically become abroad; indeed, he deliberately from its original goal of regime the borders of Israel. However, this tion in Syria would have to reach Attempts by the Americans and an unwitting propagandist for drove most of them out of the change in Damascus, it is still able would be quite difficult in Syria, a stage where none of the stake- Europeans to put pressure on Assad. And an effective supporter country in the first place as a way to use some of the Syrian insur- which has a Shi'ite population of holders see any benefit to military Damascus were limited to a com- of Vladimir Putin’s strategy. of ridding himself of his enemies. gents as Islamist mercenaries to only 2 percent. escalation; only then would we see plex regime of sanctions (painful In contrast to the US and At the moment, Assad is assert its own interests east of The US and Europe have lost the genuine willingness to compro- for the Syrian leadership, but tol- Europe, the Russian president has delighted. After all, the UN has the Euphrates against the Kurds conflict in Syria. In the short term, mise, thereby providing the diplo- erable thanks to the help of allied a functioning plan in Syria. It com- been working for years with gov- and now also in Libya. With its they should stand firm against the matic leeway needed to negotiate trading partners), half-hearted prises three stages: rescue, recap- ernment-related organizations, offensive in northeastern Syria in Syrian regime and against Russia’s an agreement. arms deliveries to alternating ture and rehabilitate. Today, we companies and individuals who October 2019, Turkey drove the attempts at “peacemaking.” They The conflict in Syria never rebel groups (too few arms to win, are moving through the transition continue to distribute aid money Democratic Union Party (PYD) should put pressure on the UN to reached such a point. For Assad, but too many to lose) as well as to phase three, the aim of which in a manner that suits his wishes. into the arms of Assad and Putin, ensure that any humanitarian aid it’s always been worthwhile to two symbolic and inconsequential is to make the Syrian regime an Some of these partners are even thereby preventing the creation of is given to the neediest people and fight for survival, and his regime attacks on military bases – both in accepted member of the interna- on US and European lists of sanc- an autonomous Kurdish state in not to Assad’s network of cronies. had everything it needed to win violation of international law – as tional community once again. tioned organizations; this is a true the medium term. In the long term, Europeans can the war in military terms: weap- a way of punishing Syria for the The logic behind this strategy scandal, given that Washington A rapprochement between place their hopes on the desire of ons of mass destruction and the use of chemical weapons. None seems plausible: Assad has won and Berlin are the largest bilat- Ankara and Damascus is possible; the Syrian people for change, sup- readiness to use them against its of these actions led to any change and remains in power, so it makes eral donors of humanitarian aid their secret service chiefs met in porting their quest for freedom, own citizens; a supporting world in the Syrian regime’s behavior or sense to acknowledge this reality, to Syria. Moscow in January. Russia main- justice and reconciliation wherever power – in this case Russia – that any increased willingness to com- to work constructively toward While Europeans and Americans tains three military bases in Syria they can. wanted to keep its last ally in the promise. rebuilding the war-torn country, continue to provide humanitarian and will therefore remain a pres- Middle East in power and was Against this backdrop, the idea to improve conditions for its poor aid to Syrians, thereby relieving ence in the East Mediterranean therefore willing to use its air force that Europe could influence the and to allow Syrian refugees to Assad of that burden and freeing for decades. In addition, Russian KRISTIN HELBERG to destroy or expel all opponents balance of power in Syria and the return. him up to pursue his Idlib cam- companies succeeded in signing is a journalist and an expert on the conflict in Syria. She of the regime; a regional power – realities on the ground by leverag- The only problem is that anyone paign, Russia, Iran and Turkey are largely one-sided contracts for the works for ARD, ORF and in this case Iran – experienced in ing financial incentives for rebuild- who wants to actually help the working to safeguard their long- extraction of oil, gas and phospho- other broadcasters. Her book asymmetrical warfare and capable ing the country is utterly naive. people of Syria would be wise term presence and commitment rus there. Der Syrien-Krieg: Lösung of organizing Shi'ite militias on the Any European parliamentarian – not to support the Syrian regime. in Syria. The autocratic leaders Moscow is eager to strengthen eines Weltkonflikts (The war in Syria: Solving a world ground; a war-weary world power whether they represent a left-wing Indeed, every dollar and euro sent of each of these countries simply state structures and contain mili- conflict) was published by – in this case the US – that was anti-imperialist or a right-wing to Damascus with good intentions don’t see foreign policy as a diplo- tias in Syria – in contrast to Tehran, Herder in 2018. cautious and in retreat; divided nationalist party – who travels to will only serve to further consoli- matic negotiation of compromises; which is working to create a state February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 9

Modern architecture IMAGES/XINHUA IMAGO Europe must deliver on the issues people care about

None of this means that von der This mix of sticks and carrots European Council that will define BY MARK LEONARD Leyen was wrong to target this has yet to be developed as a the core European approach to goal, but it does mean that she response to US secondary sanc- key global issues, including climate he more European lead- needs to be willing to help Euro- tions. And it is also not common change, cybersecurity and human ers talk about developing peans act differently if she wants in our relations with our neigh- rights. It should also describe how Ta “geopolitical commis- her slogan to be anything more bors. In the Balkans, Ukraine and the EU should relate to other great sion,” the further they are from than the butt of jokes in the White Libya, Europeans spend much powers like China, Russia and the getting there. In the months since House and the Kremlin. more effort and resources than US, as well as in key areas such as Ursula von der Leyen stated this First, Europeans must be will- Russia, Turkey or the United Ukraine, the Balkans and Africa. as her goal, actors within each of ing to play hardball rather than States. But since Europeans are A European Security Council the EU pillars of decision-making lead by example. In today’s world, not willing to take any of the could be a powerful tool for having seem to have taken a step back- it is the rogue actors who have benefits away, Russia can easily a strategic discussion, engaging the ward. the most influence. On climate, acquire a clout with a minimalist UK and allowing the willing and The Iran nuclear deal, which it is the big emitters who set the approach. able to make progress. Another was already in intensive care, is pace for diplomacy and convert We need to rewire Brussels to way to facilitate the reconcilia- now taking its last breaths. While their bad behavior into subsidies. develop a habit of thinking stra- tion of different positions would Europeans have tried to uphold In the Middle East, it is the escala- tegically and to build strategic be to then appoint core groups of it through extraordinary efforts, tory policies pursued by Russia in sovereignty by placing trade, eco- member states to work through they are struggling in the face of Syria and by Turkey in Libya that nomic and competition policy in divisive issues in an attempt to US President Donald Trump’s are rewarded. And in the Balkans the service of geopolitical goals. develop options and joint positions sanctions and diplomacy. In and Eastern Europe, Russia is an This includes fostering a greater above the lowest common denomi- Libya, freewheeling players like important player because it is will- international role for the euro nator. Turkey and Russia are having more ing to offer benefits and to take and pushing back against second- The EU has the largest market impact than France and Germany. them away. ary sanctions. It could involve in the world, the second-highest European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen And even when it comes to cli- The EU wants to move toward establishing a European invest- defense spending (after the US), mate issues, in spite of the Green a rules-based world where people ment screening system and a new ment Bank and the European Sta- venia, for example, have blocked 55,000 diplomats and the world’s New Deal that has been touted as behave constructively. But some- European competition policy as bility Mechanism, to engage out- or diluted resolutions challenging largest development-assistance Europe’s key priority, Europeans times you need to be tough in well as stricter control of state aid side the EU beyond their current China on the issues of the South budget. There is an enormous will struggle to shape the global order to disincentivize bad behav- granted to foreign competitors. mandates. China Sea and human rights. opportunity to make the EU more agenda at the climate change ior. For example, the EU is will- It will mean fortifying the Euro- But the problem is not just that The long-term challenge is to fit for purpose in a geopolitical summit in Edinburgh – that is, if ing to introduce tariffs on Harley pean pillar in NATO with con- the EU’s institutions are set up build a form of de facto solidarity world and to demonstrate that the they manage to come to agree- Davidsons and bourbon as part crete critical capabilities so that in a way that fragments power by showing that the EU is the first EU can deliver on the issues that its ment even among themselves. In of an effort to stop the US from the EU can be a better partner to between different levels and line of defense for many countries’ member states and its population the Balkans and parts of Eastern introducing tariffs on European the US as well as developing a pan- makes it impossible to combine core interests. The President of truly care about. Europe, although Europeans offer steel. That is not because Euro- European capacity to respond to economic instruments and geo- the European Council Charles the biggest market, visas and aid, peans want protectionism but cyber-attacks. Finally, the EU must political strategy. A number of Michel and the new High Repre- they are increasingly taken for because they realize that opening hedge against blockage of inter- member states have recently taken sentative of the Union for Foreign MARK LEONARD is founder and director of the granted – as we saw in Volodymyr up other people’s markets means national institutions such as the to blocking EU decision-making as Affairs and Security Policy Josep European Council on Foreign Zelensky’s leaked conversations a willingness to deter bad behav- WTO and allow Europe’s institu- a way of courting favor with third Borrell should seek to broker a Relations. with the White House. ior. tions, such as the European Invest- powers. Hungary, Greece and Slo- new grand bargain within the

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which the EU remains margin- BY KATJA GLOGER alized and ineffectual as the last bastion of democratic values and et’s face it: Germany and Macht freedoms. Europe may one day be Europe urgently needs strategic Lthankful for Donald Trump. autonomy, and so does Germany. After all, his destructive and cyni- This includes the capability not cal unpredictability is finally forc- only to formulate, but also to ing them to sufficiently appreciate + implement foreign and security their responsibility for foreign and policy goals. Economic might security policy in an ever more and the power of innovation are fragile world. critical, but so is hardware: Europe Six years ago, German President must become stronger militarily, Joachim Gauck attempted to give combining national sovereignties direction to his country’s security at the military level and inter- policy. The Federal Republic must meshing with NATO. Europe will “be ready to do more to guaran- have to organize its own defense tee the security that others have more independently while Ger- provided it with for decades,” he many must pay more for defense warned. When it comes to deploy- on a permanent basis. ing Bundeswehr troops, “Germany PUISSANCE European sovereignty – and with should not say ‘no’ on principle. it the recognition of a truly equal Nor should it say ‘yes’ unthink- ≠ partnership with the US – could ingly.” Yet Gauck called for more flourish by way of the European intervention, “earlier, more deci- Intervention Initiative proclaimed sive and more substantial.” three years ago by Macron. By now, A new global order is emerg- 14 European countries have signed ing, a perilous process that can on to the project that also includes be compared to tectonic shifts in non-EU-member European states. the Earth’s crust. This includes Yet it does not constitute an inter- the retreat of the US from its vention force; it is rather a sort of role as the world’s chief super coalition of the willing-to-project- power. Weary from all its wars, POWER power. It is hoped that coopera- America is no longer prepared to tion will give rise to a strategic bear the burden of acting alone as culture of joint action that could, the “world’s policeman.” Trump’s in the distant future, facilitate joint “America First” is not the cause, European military operations, but rather the expression of this perhaps to address humanitarian development. crises. It deserves to be given a In the days of crisis following chance, above all by the hesitant the targeted US drone strike that Europe’s navel-gazing means missed opportunities to gain Germans. killed Iranian General Qassim relevance in the new world order of great-power politics And what will become of NATO, Soleimani, Trump’s message to which has been so successful over Europe was clear: The problem its 70 years? “To preserve NATO,” of the Middle East would hence- posits former German Foreign forth fall largely into the hands of Minister Joschka Fischer, “the the Europeans. NATO must take EU must act as if the Alliance more responsibility in the region. were already gone.” While nei- As a country enjoying newfound ther “obsolete” nor “brain-dead,” energy independence, America hardly be greater and the chal- Russia’s 2014 annexation of Security policy proposals like Stream 2 gas pipeline. As spelled NATO is in deep crisis. Europe’s will no longer rely on oil from lenges hardly more daunting, Crimea pulled Germany out of its that of German Defense Minister out in the EU’s Energy Union, security remains dependent on the Middle East. “These historic German and European foreign comfort zone. Russian President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, “solidarity and trust” were to be the nuclear umbrella held aloft accomplishments changed our and security policy seems almost Vladimir Putin’s eventual renun- who argues for engagement in the critical ingredients for achiev- by the US. Berlin’s clear obliga- strategic priorities,” the US presi- dispirited. ciation of the European security northern Syria, could provide a ing EU climate protection goals tion to rapidly meet the 2-percent dent announced in early January. Maintaining the status quo, architecture formulated in the piece of the puzzle. But proposals as well as for minimizing the EU’s goal would promote unity within And because the country’s new however, is no longer an option. 1990 Paris Charter was a shock thrown into the wind like confetti dependence on Russia through a NATO more than would perhaps priorities include contending with An alliance of multilateralists to the West – a reaction that had – with no recognizable strategy diversification of its energy supply. any “expert group,” such as the its Far East strategic rival, China, must be based on more than just been underestimated by Moscow. and without consultation – are Berlin is happy enough to act as one proposed by German Foreign Europe is losing its importance consolation and reassurance. The All the while, China’s global ambi- counterproductive. Europe’s overlord, say its critics, Minister Heiko Maas. to the US. Germans must at last engage in tions solidified the Middle King- German foreign and security but if its own economic inter- NATO is in need of a hard real- Meanwhile, other “sovereign an earnest debate on security and dom in its position as the world’s policy is always European policy; ests were at stake, then Germany ity check. Just next door is the powers,” notably China and defense. For decades, the com- second largest economic power. it considers the interests of other would pursue realpolitik under Middle East, ablaze with conflict; Russia, are filling the geopolitical mercially prosperous Federal And then came Trump, who European countries to be as the banner of “Germany First.” further east lies the strategic chal- void caused by the end of the Pax Republic profited tremendously simply scoffs at the liberal world important as its own. Grounded And in the US, it’s not just lenge of China; and then there are Americana. They are marching in from the rules-based – if never order, if he even knows what it is. in its inextinguishable guilt and Trump who disparages the Ger- the authoritarian developments as the authoritarian avantgarde perfect – liberal world order Germany is obligated to formu- responsibility for the greatest trag- mans as freeloaders who shirk within the NATO member states of a “conservative international- guaranteed by the US. Espe- late answers – as sober as they are edy in twentieth-century Europe, their commitments to the 2-per- of Hungary, Poland and Turkey. A ism,” as it’s referred to in Moscow. cially in Europe, this system fos- bold – to fundamental questions the two fundamental principles cent goal while brokering deals fruitful debate over potential sanc- In the new global order defined tered democracy, the rule of law concerning its role and respon- of German foreign policy remain with Putin worth billions of euros; tions is urgent; after all, an alliance by them alone, rival great powers and the proliferation of human sibility in a new world order. unchanged: “Never again” and recent sanctions on companies based on shared values can toler- strengthen their military power rights. Comfortable and show- “Europe needs to carve out its “Never alone.” However, Germa- working on Nord Stream 2 were ate only so much realpolitik and and weaponize their influence ing a penchant for moral supe- own geopolitical role” reasoned ny’s self-evaluation as Europe’s passed by a large bipartisan major- cynicism. and their veto in the UN Security riority in its strategic position of Angela Merkel in the Financial model citizens sometimes ity in Congress. Council. They broker fragile alli- self-restraint, Germany savored Times, while the EU’s new High approaches a denial of reality. French President Emmanuel ances based on the law of might, its post-reunification peace divi- Representative for Foreign Affairs Many countries in Europe Macron is impatiently urging KATJA GLOGER with little regard for democratic dends, including a free ticket to and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, regard the country more as an “European sovereignty”; the is a journalist and writer principles, the rule of law or further prosperity through its has expressed that Europe must egotistical profiteer prone to addressee of his demands is specializing in Russian history human rights. role as an export nation ne plus learn the “language of power.” double moral standards than as Berlin. Macron believes the EU and politics. Her latest book, Europe and particularly Ger- ultra. In this scenario, the coun- Taking on greater responsibility Europeans in solidarity with their needs more engagement – in Mali, Fremde Freunde (Estranged friends), covers the long many are in danger of becoming try’s values-based foreign policy is not tantamount to conceding to neighbors. This conflict in per- perhaps – and less cheap and timid history of German-Russian a plaything in this development. very rarely stood in the way of its Trump. Put another way, it’s sen- ception was most recently on dis- self-restraint. Macron paints a relations. Although the upheaval could economic interests. sible to be prepared for conflict. play in the debate over the Nord picture of a multipolar world in

Continued from page 1 LEGAL NOTICE A global order in flux

Publisher: Detlef Prinz Conundrum number two: Last 6,000 tanks, 4,000 aircraft and two engagement of the Europeans in the rarely do military interventions and hence strategy, on the larger Executive Editor: Theo Sommer year, Russia conducted one of the million troops. Drones and cyber Middle East, while some left-of-cen- have the intended outcome; usu- issue of world order. Or whether, in Editor-in-Chief: Peter H. Koepf largest military exercises in the Far warfare have drastically changed the ter gurus think the military should ally they create new unforeseen the course of adjusting to changing [email protected] East. This spring, NATO is going realities of war. Defender 2020 and be employed to enforce human and more complex problems (see circumstances and redefining roles, Senior Editor: Lutz Lichtenberger to stage Defender 2020, the largest Zapad are primarily psychological rights in authoritarian countries. Kosovo or, more recently, Libya). they pursue above all their national English Language Editor: Jonathan Lutes US military training maneuver since demonstrations, not simulations of But let’s face the facts. Realism It taxes conventional wisdom to or regional interests.” Art Director: Paul M. Kern the 1990s. About 37,000 GIs are warfare in times ahead. would strongly advise us not to mili- assume that Europe’s much weaker Sixteen years ago, in his 2004 Layout: Johanna Trapp, Gordon Martin scheduled to take part, including an The third conundrum relates to tarize Europe’s foreign policy. For forces could succeed where Amer- Washington Post op-ed, the grand- Senior Advisor: Oliver Rolofs entire division of 20,000 soldiers Europe. Many feel that it must step one thing, the EU simply does not ica’s military behemoth has failed. master of realpolitik formulated a specially deployed to Europe. For forward as America steps back. have the military capabilities to take It is a deep and sincere wish that truism that is a valid and relevant Publishing House Times Media GmbH months, they will rumble through Trump has been making noises on huge missions in its near abroad. the Trump administration might today as it was then: “American Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 Germany to the border of Russia in to this effect. German politicians Moreover, the US record is rather moderate its transactional “Amer- power is a fact of life, but the art 10963 Berlin +49 30 21505-400 Poland and the Baltic republics. The vow to take on greater interna- discouraging. It teaches us that wars ica First” approach and once again of diplomacy is to translate power point is to prove that rapid deploy- tional responsibility. Ursula von are costly – on Operation Iraqi Free- strengthen the traditional pillars of into consensus.” US Secretary of Printed by Hurriyet A.S., An der Brücke 20-22 ment can enhance deterrence. der Leyen, the new president of dom alone, the US spent $730 bil- US policy – standing by its allies, State Mike Pompeo should have this 65456 Mörfelden Walldorf, Germany Without a doubt, the Russians the European Commission, and lion between 2003 and 2010. The supporting free trade and uphold- adage printed, framed and placed

The German Times is a registered will respond with another massive Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Rep- wars last far longer than advertised; ing rules-based global institutions. on his desk. trademark of Times Media GmbH. Zapad exercise along their western resentative for Foreign Affairs and the war in Afghanistan – the longest It could do worse than heed Henry border. Both, however, must know Security Policy, argue that Europe in American history – has dragged Kissinger’s recent statement: “The www.the-security-times.com THEO SOMMER ISSN 2191-6462 that tank battles are obsolete. No must “learn to speak the language on for nearly twenty years. Pretty most urgent question is whether the is executive editor of Press deadline: Feb. 7, 2020 future war will see engagements like of power.” Several conservative soon, the US will have been tied Atlantic nations will operate with The Security Times the Battle of Kursk, which involved pundits hint at increased military down in Iraq for just as long. And some sense of common purpose, February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 11

Zone defense NATO and the EU are muscling up

joint high-readiness force of some decoupling Europe’s security from is vital to Europe’s own econo- alliance and its European pillar as BY HEINRICH BRAUSS 40,000 troops. that of the US with its extended mies. In addition, the disruptive well as Europe’s capacity to act on HEINRICH BRAUSS, nuclear deterrence. technologies of the digital age will its own. former NATO Assistant urope and the US face P European Allies alternate in The EU, in turn, has built sig- profoundly change the nature of North America and Europe Secretary General for Defense Policy and Planning, unprecedented challenges leading its spearhead force of nificant momentum in improving conflict and defense in the future. must stand together against the is currently senior associate and threats. To the east, some 5,000 troops – ready to its capacity for civilian and mili- The Alliance as a whole must multitude of challenges that con- fellow at the German Council E on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Russia’s aggressive actions aim to move its initial elements within a tary crisis response missions as invest in innovation programs to cern both continents. The US destabilize and intimidate neigh- few days. part of its Common Security and maintain its technological edge must remain a European power to bors and undermine NATO and the Defence Policy. While the collec- and interoperability. counterbalance Russia’s military EU. To the south, continuing crises P The multinational battle- tive defense of Europe remains The totality of all these chal- potential. But it also needs Europe and violence across North Africa groups in the Baltic states and NATO’s sole responsibility, the lenges posed to the trans-Atlantic to remain the global superpower and the Middle East (MENA) have Poland with 20 contributing allies, European Defence Agency con- partners makes equitable bur- it is today. Europe, in turn, must fueled terrorism and mass migra- led by United Kingdom, Canada, tributes to projecting stability den-sharing between the US and take on far greater international tion that are affecting Europe’s sta- Germany and the US, demonstrate beyond Europe and thus to trans- Europe a strategic necessity. Euro- responsibility, and act as a unified, bility. Russia’s operations in Syria, that even in case of a limited incur- Atlantic security. Its two flagship pean nations must make vigorous self-determined and capable part- growing tensions between the US sion, Russia would immediately projects, the Permanent Struc- efforts to restore, strengthen and ner of the US. and Iran and conflicts between be countered with allied forces, tured Cooperation (PESCO) transform their armed forces. regional powers have aggravated including from NATO’s three and the European Defence Fund They need to increase defense the risks posed to Europe’s security. nuclear powers. (EDF), help member states expenditure considerably to invest At the same time, China’s global engage in multinational coopera- in high-end capabilities. And there Combat ready? A KSK soldier of ambitions, its growing economic, P In the Black Sea region, tion to develop more capabilities, is progress: By the end of 2020, the Bundeswehr’s technological and military poten- NATO’s presence is being reduce duplication, converge European allies and Canada special forces tial and an emerging entente enhanced through multinational capability development plans and together will have spent some between China and Russia pose exercises and additional air and consolidate the European defense $130 billion more than they did a double strategic challenge to the maritime activities. Prompted by industry. in 2016. democratic West. For the United the 2018 NATO Readiness Initia- To date, EU nations have The multiple strategic chal- States, China has become the key tive, European Allies are provid- launched 47 cooperative projects. lenges, however, also require strategic competitor – with impli- ing 30 maneuver battalions, 30 Enhancing their capabilities also the EU to further enhance its cations for NATO’s cohesion and kinetic air squadrons and 30 war- benefits the Alliance and rein- contributions to Europe’s secu- effectiveness. ships at a maximum of 30 days’ forces its European pillar, as 21 rity. PESCO and EDF should Europe is struggling to position notice to employ in the theater. NATO allies are also EU mem- be used to support the develop- itself within this new and emerg- They will develop into a number bers. NATO and EU staffs work ment of those capabilities that ing global power structure. Its of larger formations – combat bri- together to ensure that capabil- are essential to the entire mis- unity and ability to act as a valu- gades, maritime task groups and ity development within the two sion spectrum – crisis response able partner to the US and as a enhanced air wings at very high organizations is complementary and high-end defense alike recognized geopolitical actor on readiness. and that respective priorities and – and help develop tech- its own are at stake. outputs are coherent. nologically advanced NATO is currently addressing P NATO has enhanced cyber Since 2014, NATO and the EU capabilities required the implications of global devel- defense and set up a Cyber have enhanced their collabora- to protect Europe, opments on Euro-Atlantic secu- Operations Center. Two new tion to an unprecedented level. such as missile rity while focusing on immedi- commands, one in the US, one in They are now cooperating on defense and long- ate challenges. These include Germany, are in charge of moving 74 projects in a range of areas range precision strengthening its deterrence and forces across the Atlantic and that include countering hybrid weapons. Fur- defense posture while maintain- across Europe. threats and expanding cyber thermore, Euro- ing a dialogue with Moscow, and defense, capability develop- pean nations helping project stability by assist- P EU and NATO work together ment, military mobility, defense should assume SHUTTERSTOCK/JOERG HUETTENHOELSCHER ing partners in providing for their to create the legal, logistical and capacity-building for part- a challeng- own security. As NATO has to be infrastructure conditions for ners and maritime security. It ing level of able to respond to threats from military mobility; the European is essential to ensure complete responsibil- various regions across its area Commission will co-finance the transparency and the fullest ity and ambi- – at short notice and simultane- improvement of infrastructure in possible involvement of non-EU tion for their ously – it must retain maximum Eastern Europe: roads, bridges, NATO members, especially the fair share awareness, flexibility and agility to tunnels, harbors, airfields. UK after Brexit, since they pro- of NATO’s ensure it has the right forces in the vide substantial contributions to entire set right place at the right time. This P The Alliance has reinvigo- Europe’s security. of capabil- requires rapid decision-making, rated its nuclear deterrence. Its As the US shifts its strategic ity require- forces stationed at high readiness response to the deployment of focus to the Asian-Pacific region, ments – in and the ability to move them rap- new land-based, intermediate- however, European nations will quantitative idly over great distances to rein- range nuclear-capable missiles by need to take far greater responsi- and qualitative force threatened allies. Russia will be defensive and bal- bility for the security of Europe, terms – and its Since 2014, NATO has taken a anced, focusing on conventional for NATO’s deterrence and demand for high- range of measures: capabilities. It must preserve Alli- defense and for crisis manage- readiness forma- ance unity and the credibility of ment in the MENA region, as well tions. These efforts P The NATO Response Force NATO’s posture as a whole while as supporting the US in uphold- would strengthen has been augmented to become a denying Moscow any option of ing freedom of navigation, which the trans-Atlantic

security in Europe. According BY DIRK WIESE AND to Lajčák, the decisive move REINHARD KRUMM Eastern promises would be a shift away from a zero-sum game “toward dialog he future looked that can actually lead us to com- brighter 30 years ago. In For an active EU policy towards Eastern Europe promise.” The prerequisites for T1990, the Conference this shift would include publi- for Security and Cooperation cally naming differences without in Europe gave its brand-new Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine satisfied with the international The EU’s policy toward East- case scenario, be carried out over reservation, exploring interests Charter of Paris the title “For a have signed Association Agree- standing of their respective ern Europe is unclear and based their heads. and designating potential areas New Europe.” The 30-page doc- ments with the EU; Armenia, countries, in spite of their mem- on three separate concepts: the It is of the utmost importance of cooperation. It would behoove ument began with the words: “A which is part of the Eurasian bership in the EU and NATO. Eastern Partnership (EaP), the to take these objections into seri- the EU to initiate such a dialog, new era of Democracy, Peace Economic Union (EAEU), signed Russians and Ukrainians also Russia policy (steered by five ous consideration. Still, it should most importantly out of respect and Unity.” a watered-down version of the express a similar dissatisfaction. principles credited to Federica not prevent us from seeking for the victims of World War II Much progress has been made same. The other states conduct Moreover, the world is now in Mogherini, the former EU High out political solutions together. and the subsequent responsibil- in Europe since then. The Cen- trade with the EU without any an era of increasing competition Representative for Foreign For example, the situation in ity to ensure a peaceful Europe. tral and Eastern European coun- political ambitions toward Brus- between China and the US. For Affairs and Security Policy) and Ukraine is no cause for satisfac- Today, the export-oriented tries of Poland, Slovakia, Czechia sels. its part, Russia has regained mili- the Central Asia strategy. The tion on the part of us EU citi- EU relies on a strategic foreign and Hungary are now equal In the 30 years since 1990, tary strength and is also getting EU’s policy toward Eastern zens. policy. It is in their interest to for- members of the EU and NATO, people living in these countries involved. In other words, the EU Europe will have to tie together Fifty years ago, at a time when mulate a concrete policy toward and their citizens have carried have undergone a major trans- cannot exempt itself from this these strands and come up with the situation was just as mud- Eastern Europe. After all, if the out a remarkable economic and formation process. And yet, field of conflict. a viable strategy going forward. dled as it is today, Egon Bahr – a EU seeks to achieve peace and social transformation. prosperity and stability are still Even before taking office, For example, in the future, EaP key political figure in the era of unity in Europe, it will have to act The results have not always fragile, and people are dissatisfied European Commission President civil society projects carried out Ostpolitik – called for a policy with energy and foresight. been stable, however, as devel- with the results of the transfor- Ursula von der Leyen stated that at the EU level could – depending of small steps. At that point opments in some countries show. mation. she intended to lead “a geopo- on their relevance – include the in time, Germany’s long-term Above all, European unity has This goes for the field of litical commission,” whereby the Russian side. strategic goal was reconciliation DIRK WIESE (SPD) not been achieved. The split in international relations, as well. concrete political formulation European policy toward east- with the countries of Eastern is the German government’s the continent now lies further According to a survey conducted of that goal is still pending. The ern neighbors is burdened by a Europe and, ultimately, German Coordinator for Intersocietal east. last year by the Vienna-based volatility that characterizes inter- tangible historical distrust felt reunification. For the EU today, Cooperation with Russia, On the other side of that Regional Office for Cooperation national relations at the moment by Poles, Estonians, Latvians the long-term strategic goal Central Asia and the Eastern Partnership Countries border lie the states of the East- and Peace in Europe (ROCPE) is likely to increase rather than and Lithuanians as well as Geor- should be a united Europe. ern Partnership (EaP), which affiliated with the Friedrich decrease. In the meantime, the gians and Ukrainians. They fear In 2019, OSCE chairman and REINHARD KRUMM include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ebert Foundation together with US is redefining its interests and a potential agreement between Slovak Foreign Minister Miro- heads up the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s Regional Office Georgia, Belarus, Moldova and the Paris-based global market involvement in Europe while its Russia and EU countries, such as slav Lajčák argued that OSCE for Cooperation and Peace in Ukraine – but also the Russian research company IPSOS, citi- economic sanctions continue to Germany and France; an agree- rules and regulations were Europe (ROCPE) in Vienna. Federation. zens in Latvia and Poland are not impact EU countries. ment that would, in the worst- entirely sufficient to ensure 12 The Security Times – Strategy February 2020 FROM COLD WAR TO HOT PEACE Russia is benefiting from its new confrontation with the West. But murkier times may lie ahead

Venezuela. These have increased even if the current momentum to focus more on domestic issues, Putin is playing the short-term BY IAN BREMMER Russia’s clout on the interna- is aimed at normalizing relations including an economy that is pro- game capably, he’s not playing the tional stage – not to the level of with Moscow. ducing growth of only 1 to 2 per- long-term game nearly as well. n the nearly three decades the United States or China, but cent a year. In general, there is The Russian government does since the collapse of the to a notable degree nonetheless. 3. Trump really does want to limited domestic support for for- not have an answer for how to ISoviet Union, Russia’s rela- This feat is made more impressive work with Putin, though the US eign adventures. Signs from the fully address the China relation- tionship with the West has by the fact that while the US and Congress will continue to stymie Kremlin suggest it has become ship over the long term. Russia’s undergone a dramatic transfor- China are the two largest econo- such efforts on most counts. more cautious regarding foreign hopes for China are especially mation – from establishing eco- mies in the world, Russia ranks Trump’s presidency has not engagements, both in terms of high at the moment – with West- nomic ties the 1990s to being 11th, behind countries like Brazil produced the direct benefits Rus- committing formal troops and ern economic links frayed, China partners in the wake of 9/11 to and Canada. Russia will continue sian leaders had obviously hoped getting involved in tit-for-tats that is of growing importance as an once again being adversaries looking for such low-risk, high- for, though Moscow has still man- do further damage to the invest- export market for energy and as in the post-Bush era. There’s reward opportunities for inter- aged to capitalize on Trump’s for- ment climate as the US ads more an investor in a range of Russian plenty of blame to go around, vention. Putin is also primed to eign policy – cementing its role sanctions. sectors, particularly oil and gas. not least the absence of even take advantage of the contin- as intermediary in Syria being Still, there are limits to the But the power dynamic is even considering true reconstruc- ued souring of US–EU relations the most obvious example. Also impact of domestic pressures starker since the days when Putin tion of the former Soviet states during the Trump era. Which noteworthy is the fact that US- on Russian foreign policy. First, first steered Russia toward a revi- after collapse. But many of these brings us to… China tensions have pushed growth is sluggish, but there is sionist foreign policy. The imbal- shifts have to do with the politi- Moscow and Beijing closer macroeconomic stability – the ance will grow even stronger as cal trajectory of one Vladimir 2. Europe increasingly desires together. Deep-rooted antipathy budget has been running sur- China continues its geopolitical Putin, who has gone from rela- a return to some sense of nor- toward the Russian government pluses, currency reserves have ascent. Russia’s approach at pres- tive unknown to the longest- malcy. That will be difficult given remains bipartisan in Congress, been replenished in recent years ent is to accommodate China’s serving leader of Russia since just how much division there cur- and US lawmakers have built up and stand at over $550 billion, growing influence in Central Joseph Stalin. And with Putin’s rently is within the EU, Germa- ways to constrain Trump’s ability inflation has been under control, Asia and even in countries like announcement earlier this year ny’s weakening leadership of the to unilaterally change US policy and the currency has been fairly Ukraine and Belarus. China, for of forthcoming constitutional EU and, of course, Trump. All of toward Russia, as demonstrated stable. In other words, the gov- its part, is happy to avoid step- changes, he has signaled that he ernment does not face an eco- ping on Russia’s toes, even as it has no intention of relinquish- nomic emergency, and it is in a becomes more influential in what ing power when his term ends in better position than in the past Russia views as its historic sphere 2024, even if he does give up the Deep-rooted antipathy to deal with an external shock. of influence. Over time, that Chi- presidency. Longer term, there are legitimate nese presence will create tensions With all that in mind, here are toward the Russian concerns about stagnant growth, with Moscow, and there’s only so five key trends likely to shape the low foreign direct investment much Russia will be able to do “hot peace” between Russia and government remains and demographic challenges. But about that. the West in the coming years. the short-term state of affairs is bipartisan in Congress stable enough that Putin feels he In short, Russia will remain an 1. Russia will continue to seek can avoid undertaking any major opportunist on the international tactical wins it can score inter- reforms. stage despite the risks of blow- nationally, enabled by a US pull- which plays into Russia’s hands. by the 2017 Countering America’s Second, public opinion is not back from citizens at home and back from global leadership and Since 2014, Europe has been Adversaries Through Sanctions the key driver of foreign policy the West more generally. But a inevitable foreign policy missteps rigorously debating the proper legislation. Trump can talk about decisions. Putin has prioritized European continent looking to taken by the West more generally. response to Russian actions in improving the relationship all he geopolitics over economics, at stabilize itself and its greater Putin has been quick to take Ukraine and other malign activi- wants, but it is hard for him to least when it comes to what he surroundings will offer Moscow advantage of the US pullback ties in Europe (election interfer- actually translate that into policy. identifies as core interests, and he an opportunity to improve rela- from areas where it once played ence, targeted or attempted kill- Take NATO as another example. is not going to change course in tions with a significant part of the a dominant role. It has also ings of émigrés). There are many Both Putin and Trump have res- response to polls. There are also West, even as relations between taken advantage of those cases states (Hungary, Italy and, most ervations about the organization some foreign policy priorities that the US and Russia remain chilly. in which Western powers have recently, France) that want to – albeit for much different rea- will remain important enough for And while the current standoff not fully committed themselves forge closer ties with Moscow, sons – but Congress has already Putin to risk Western punishment, between the US and China has (e.g., Syria and Libya). This also while Poland, the Baltic States made attempts through legisla- such as maintaining Russian influ- pushed Moscow and Beijing includes Ukraine, though there and the UK have been far more tion to limit what Trump can do ence in Ukraine and Belarus. closer together, Russia should be the cost to Russia has been higher hostile toward a rapprochement. to undermine the security alli- Going forward, the key ques- concerned about the long-term in lives lost, budget outlays and in Germany has shown signs of both ance even further. tion will be how Putin transitions trajectory of that relationship terms of sanctions (more on this arguments – German Chancel- Both Trump and Putin have his power post-2024. He is estab- – if Russia isn’t careful, its big- below). lor Angela Merkel was instru- learned the hard way that having lishing a system in which he can gest challenger in this era of “hot More generally, Putin has mental in maintaining sanctions strong leader-to-leader relations remain highly influential even after peace” will be coming from the sought opportunities to improve against Russia after its land grab is far from enough when at least he (presumably) leaves the presi- East rather than the West in just Russia’s position in key regions, in Ukraine, but Germany has also one of those leaders hails from dency that year. How and indeed if a few short years. at limited financial or military been the lead advocate for the a robust and still-functioning he disperses power remains unan- costs. In so doing, he has suc- Nord Stream 2 pipeline. democracy. swered by the recent changes. But ceeded in raising Russia’s profile Ultimately, European unity will foreign policy and security ques- in the Middle East as a diplomatic stick to sanctions, largely because 4. Russia is struggling with tions may be among the very last IAN BREMMER broker, and as an intermediary of they are tied so closely to the spe- growing challenges at home, but things he is willing to surrender. is president and founder of the war in Syria. Similar moves cific goal of ending the war in Putin’s foreign policy victories Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. In 2018, he published are being made in parts of sub- Eastern Ukraine. Thawing ten- are not helping. 5. Russia must increasingly Us Vs. Them: The Failure of Saharan Africa, and with Russian sions between the EU and Russia Polling in 2019 has shown that worry about being dominated by Globalism. support for Nicolás Maduro in will necessarily be a slow process, the Russian public wants Putin China – a reminder that while

leaders would be patting each other BY SYLVIE KAUFFMANN on the back while ignoring the real issues,” said one French official. here he goes again. In his Yet for all the noise, what most speech on nuclear deter- allies considered really offensive Je ne sais quoi Trence delivered on Feb. was not the “brain dead” accusa- 7, French President Emmanuel tion but the skepticism the French Can the French president convince his EU Macron followed the traditional leader voiced in the same interview line of his country’s nuclear doc- about NATO’s Article 5. “That was partners to pursue a new political purpose? trine. But this time he gave it a a big shock,” said a senior British certain European twist, with official. “It was sending a terrible hopes of opening a strategic dialog message to our enemies.” The fact among his EU partners: “France’s that Macron had unilaterally, in late vital interests have now taken on August, tried to launch a new dialog a European dimension,” he said. on European security with Vladi- “Our nuclear forces reinforce, by mir Putin did not help. their very existence, the security Having launched his hand gre- of Europe and therefore have a nade, Macron then used the NATO genuinely European dimension.” summit and Secretary-General Jens Macron is a man on a mission; Stoltenberg’s visit in Paris a few he’s out to convince his fellow days earlier to repeatedly reassure European leaders that the EU can, his allies on France’s commitment and must, defend its own interests. to NATO and its confidence in This mission has proven costly Article 5. Russia, he conceded, was more than once in the past. Last definitely “a threat” to its neigh- November, less than four weeks bors. French officials pointed out before the London summit due to their president’s frustration over mark NATO’s 70th anniversary, Syria to explain his outburst: the the French president’s calculated withdrawal of US forces, abruptly assertion, in an interview with The announced in October by US Presi- Economist, that “we are experienc- dent Donald Trump, had opened ing the brain death of NATO” set the doors to a Turkish offensive in off diplomatic shockwaves. And northern Syria. These decisions by that was exactly the intended two major NATO allies were taken consequence: “The last thing we without consultation with other

PICTURE ALLIANCE/ JOHANNA GERON wanted was another summit where members of the Alliance who, like February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 13 SHUTTERSTOCK/ALEXEY LYSENKO SHUTTERSTOCK/ALEXEY

Looking ahead, Russian-Western BY DMITRI TRENIN relations are unlikely to improve in the next few years. If history is any S-Russian relations con- guide, US sanctions, enshrined in tinue to deteriorate. law, will outlive most of today’s UExpectations on both politicians. There are limits to sides are extremely low. Arms the daylight that can be allowed control is unraveling fast, with to emerge between US and EU the Trump administration seem- policies on Russia. As for Moscow, ingly more likely to let the New while the cost of adversity is con- START treaty expire within siderable, Russia’s resources are a year than to extend it. Opens not exhausted. Putin’s position Skies may be another agreement remains more or less solid, so stra- that US President Donald Trump tegic concessions are out of the would like to discard. The coming question. The past six years have US presidential election might proven that the Kremlin’s foreign well result in new accusations of policy will not change under West- Russian meddling, which would ern pressure. lead to new sanctions against Even as the Russian president Russia. has now launched a long pro- But whatever the outcome, more cess of political transition, it has sanctions are a near certainty. As become clear that while Russians has been the case for the past six will vote for a different head of years, the most one can realisti- state in 2024, the new governance cally achieve in the foreseeable structure and the personalities fill- future is to prevent an inadvertent ing it will be Putin’s choices. It is direct military collision between widely accepted that Putin himself Russia and the United States. In will likely act as the country’s top the absence of meaningful US- authority for years after 2024. Russian dialogue, communication The bad news is that the Mos- channels between the two coun- cow-Washington confrontation tries’ top defense and security offi- will continue; the good news is cers remain the only instruments that there will be some guardrails of keeping the peace between the built around it. Russia’s relations two adversaries. with European countries will vary Russia’s relations with Europe from the pragmatic, such as with continue to disappoint. Expecta- France, Germany and Italy, to the tions of a breakthrough or at least highly toxic, such as with several significant progress on Donbass, Eastern European neighbors. The which were raised as a result of conflict in Donbass is unlikely to the Ukrainian presidential and rekindle or escalate, but nor will parliamentary elections of 2019, Vodka on the rocks it be solved anytime soon. Crimea have had to be significantly rolled will stay Russian, but will not be back. It is possible that the line Russia’s relations with the West are not about to get any better internationally recognized as of contact in Ukraine’s east may such. There will be no hostilities see a prolonged lull in shelling in the Baltic Sea area, but hostil- and shooting, with more civilians ity on both sides of the NATO- freely crossing the line to go about sition of sanctions on companies ing Russia to re-join the group to stir European governments into tions. Moscow angrily rejects the Russian divide will become more their daily business and prisoners involved in laying the Nord Stream from which it was expelled in 2014. action to prevent an additional notion, contained in the European deeply entrenched. The Arctic will still kept by both sides returning 2 pipeline across the Baltic Sea. In a subsequent interview with confrontation. Indeed, European Parliament’s resolution, of the joint become busier commercially, but to their families. What also seems The German government called The Economist, which caused quite calm has only confirmed the fact responsibility of the two totalitar- more militarized as well. The Bal- probable, however, is a long-term the US action unacceptable, but a stir, Macron, while pronounc- that Europe’s security on the ian regimes, Hitler’s Nazism and kans, while no longer an East-West freeze of the political status quo the construction has stopped and ing NATO “brain-dead,” talked of Western side is fully managed by Stalin’s Soviet Bolshevism, for the battleground, will be a sandbox in Donbass. the completion of the project will the need to open a dialogue on NATO. French leaders can make outbreak of World War II. Victory for small-time geopolitical games. The Minsk agreement, whose be delayed. European security with Moscow. statements, but little more, par- in the Great Patriotic War of 1941- The Eastern Mediterranean, how- implementation is a sine qua non Even with the sanctions in place, Some in France and Germany ticularly when their views are not 1945 is key to both the official and ever, is emerging as an area where for the lifting of EU sanctions it appeared at one point that the voiced concern that isolating even supported by France’s closest popular Russian historical narra- Russia, again, is competing with against Russia, will remain unful- leading EU member states were Russia would only serve to push partner, Germany, which remains tive as well as the country’s very the West. filled. Moscow’s insistence on a poised to initiate a rapprochement it even closer to China, with nega- steadfast in its Atlanticism. Chan- self-image; any attempt to under- special constitutional status for with Moscow. French President tive implications for Europe. cellor Angela Merkel recently mine it is widely regarded as a Donetsk and Luhansk remains Emmanuel Macron invited Rus- These arguments have been less made a rare visit to Moscow, but vicious case of Russophobia. anathema to Kyiv. The late- sian President Vladimir Putin to than compelling. The formal can- only to discuss Libya’s security, Against this background, Mos- DMITRI TRENIN December Russian-Ukrainian his summer residence for a wide- celation in 2019 of the INF Treaty not Europe’s, with Putin. cow’s relations with – and public is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and author, gas transit agreement, under ranging private discussion of the raises the possibility of a new The coming 75th anniversary of attitudes toward – a number of most recently, of Russia which Moscow agreed to honor relationship. Coming on the eve US-Russian missile stand-off in the victory over Nazi Germany in Eastern European countries, (Polity Press, Cambridge, a court decision in favor of Kyiv, of the G7 meeting, this sparked a Europe. Yet, to Moscow’s surprise, World War II has opened a new from Poland to the Baltic States to 2019). has failed to avert the US impo- brief debate on the merits of invit- this worrisome prospect has failed front in European-Russian rela- Ukraine, have reached new lows.

France, were involved in the fight has returned, presenting Europe All the tools of soft, smart and the creation of a new Directorate- edly dispatched to mend fences and on Ukraine. The Russian presi- against Islamic State (IS) in the area with a drastic choice: prey or hard power should be used. As the General for Defence Industry and brief wary partners on the Elysée’s dent’s attention will now likely be and were exposed to the fallout of power. The changing trans-Atlantic US multiplies its threats of tariffs, Space, which, under the control of Putin strategy. Sending him before focused on the transition process Trump’s decision. relationship was identified early on trade becomes a major instrument European Commissioner for Inter- the announcement of Macron’s in the Kremlin. This episode was typical of as a long-term, fundamental chal- of foreign policy. Trying to save nal Market and Services Thierry plan might have helped. The same One parameter has been constant Macron: take advantage of a major lenge: “For the first time,” Macron the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Breton, will manage the European goes for the controversy over the in Macron’s foreign and security disruption to add another layer of says, ”we have an American presi- Action nuclear deal with Iran was Defence Fund. EU’s enlargement process. France policy: the priority given to the disruption in order to “shift the dent who does not share the idea seen as a European effort. Building Early on, though, the French produced merely a non-paper in fight against terrorism. Hit by mass parameters,” as one of his advisers of the European project.” And up European defense is an obvious president’s crusade for a stronger Brussels, with proposals to reform terrorism in 2015 and still under puts it. In this case, most NATO Europe was met with inevitable the EU enlargement process, after active threat, the French generally allies admitted that, despite its suspicion. Call it “Gallic preju- refusing to open accession talks support maintaining 5,100 French strength and activity as a military dice” or the “Gaullist edge” – what with North Macedonia and Alba- troops in the Sahel, as they have for organization, the Alliance itself, as he wants, it is feared, is a French nia. seven years now, to combat jihad, a political umbrella, was in trouble. The only way for Europe to Europe serving France’s interests. The paradox is that with Russia, even at the expense of casualties “Macron has opened a strategic Macron’s style and method feed Macron is probably genuinely and even with an increasing feeling conversation at a political level, survive is to think of itself this suspicion. His unabashed ten- convinced that he was acting in that, like Afghanistan, it is a war and this is important,” a NATO dency to act unilaterally in order Europe’s interests. Facing the end that may never be won. This is also official acknowledged. But there as a global power to strengthen a multilateral orga- of the nuclear arms control agree- a crucial element in the complex was collateral damage. Questioning nization irritates his European ments, he sees a security vacuum relationship Paris has with Wash- NATO’s relevance increased sus- partners – not least the closest of on the horizon and wants Euro- ington. European support for this picions surrounding his push for them, Germany. “This is what lead- pean interests to be taken into combat force will not compen- European defense among France’s ership means,” says one source at account, including those of the sate for the assistance provided partners. Yet the French are now now the European project itself priority – and in Macron’s think- the Elysée. “Either you are a leader countries closest to Russia that are by US intelligence and logistics. convinced that they are making is at a crossroads. Having lost its ing, European defense includes a or you are not. He is.” But others not covered by the INF treaty and The French and US militaries have inroads. As long as they avoid the main external enemy with the col- post-Brexit United Kingdom. Euro- argue, notably in Brussels, that its range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. learned to work well together, but words “strategic autonomy,” they lapse of communism, the EU has pean defense also includes indus- leadership also means building up His proposal of a new “architecture every threat of withdrawal tweeted feel that the concept itself is gaining lost its sense of history; it needs a try. Paris never misses an opportu- support behind you. His Russian of trust and security” remains elu- by Trump resonates deeply in Paris traction as their European partners new political purpose. The rise of nity to point out that US pressure initiative is a case in point. By delib- sive. Forget about “architecture”; – probably more than do his threats finally take stock of Trump’s con- China is another factor of fragility for increased defense budgets in erately omitting Berlin – where it the key words are “trust” and “secu- of tariffs on French wine. tempt for global rules and of his for Europe, with a risk of bipolar- Europe goes hand-in-hand with would have encountered little rity.” Macron’s hope – that there chances for re-election. ization – a US-China “G2” that, in pressure to buy American equip- opposition – he fed accusations of is room for discussion between What does Macron want – apart Macron’s view, would deprive the ment. “NATO solidarity is Article selling out to Russia from angry reluctant European partners and from disruption? His long speeches, EU of the ability to pursue its own 5, not Article F-35,” French Minister Northern and Central European Moscow’s divisive efforts – seems SYLVIE KAUFFMANN is editorial director and a press conferences and interviews course. The only way for Europe of Defense Florence Parly snapped member states. Ambassador Pierre to be hitting a wall, as Putin shows columnist for the French all point to a clear vision of a world to survive, therefore, is to think of last year in Washington. Within Vimont, a smooth operator well no signs of movement despite a few daily Le Monde. where great-power competition itself as a global power. the EU, Macron has pushed for liked in European circles, was belat- positive steps in the Minsk process 14 The Security Times – Strategy February 2020 IMAGO IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS IMAGES/ZUMA IMAGO

Fire and fury: Supporters of the Iran regime burn the US flag during a protest against the US following a Friday prayer led by Supreme eaderL of Iran Ali Khamenei in January.

At a minimum, this would buy time, avert a UN showdown and BY ROBERT MALLEY perhaps press the pause button until the US presidential elections he United States and The other quid pro quo in November. Although Solei- Iran have been on a pre- mani’s killing has significantly Tdictable collision course The conundrum of the Washington-Tehran stalemate soured the atmosphere, Iran and since the Trump administra- the US might also seek to build on tion withdrew from the Joint the successful exchange of detain- Comprehensive Plan of Action ees last December and pursue (JCPOA) in May 2018. The driv- additional discussion on releas- ers of this heightened tension erable financial strain, in particular specifically, and international soldiers at the Ain al-Assad base. mechanism (DRM) that could see ing US and other foreign nation- are two fundamentally clashing by precipitating a substantial drop engagement more broadly, were While the guns have since gone the case eventually referred to als held by Iran on highly dubious and self-reinforcing approaches: in Iran’s vital oil exports. strategic mistakes foretold and silent, that salvo is unlikely to the UN Security Council. Should charges. Washington is convinced that a But the sanctions have otherwise now seemingly fulfilled. But just as be the end of Iran’s or its allies’ that transpire, and the pre-JCPOA Now that the E3 (France, Ger- policy of “maximum pressure” failed. They have so far produced Washington’s approach has failed response, and the possibility of international sanctions return to many and the UK) have triggered will prompt Iran to succumb to neither the greater regional sta- to yield Iranian concessions, Iran’s further direct or indirect retalia- force, it would herald the agree- the DRM, they will likely be pres- its demands – and should such bility Washington seeks nor the brinkmanship failed to deliver a tion against US or allied targets ment’s collapse. The consequence sured by the US to take the case pressure fail, the US response more stringent nuclear constraints favorable breakthrough. remains significant. would be rolling the clock back a to the Security Council as quickly should apply even greater pres- it has targeted. Instead, they have At the regional level, tensions Meanwhile, Iran has been decade and reviving discussions as possible, not least with the end sure. Conversely, Tehran believes resulted in heightened tension have risen steadily over the past steadily and methodically breach- on whether military action by the of a UN arms embargo looming that the most effective reaction to and an Iranian nuclear program year. Attacks against oil tankers ing its JCPOA commitments: US and/or Israel is necessary to in October, unless UN sanctions pressure is counter-pressure – a increasingly unshackled from the in the Gulf in May and June pre- breaking the 300kg cap on its contain a nuclear program the are re-imposed. That makes it all policy of calibrated escalations on JCPOA’s key restraints. Moreover, ceded the brazen attack against stockpiles of enriched uranium, JCPOA had successfully kept in the more imperative for the E3 to the nuclear and regional fronts and despite episodic and at times Aramco’s Abqaiq-Khurais facilities upping enrichment rates beyond check. use the coming period to engage to demonstrate it will not fold serious unrest, the Islamic Repub- in Saudi Arabia in September. Iran the deal’s 3.67-percent limit, With the region on a knife-edge, Tehran, seek to the greatest extent under duress, but instead raise lic remains in full control at home. has denied involvement but is sus- activating advanced centrifuges, the nuclear deal increasingly at possible to provide sanctions relief the stakes. For the first year of the US “max- pected in each of these incidents. reviving enrichment activities risk and the prospects for direct or economic reprieve, get Iran to The dangers of this standoff imum pressure” campaign, Iran’s diplomacy between Tehran and resume full compliance and, pos- were fully evident in late Decem- approach was to wait it out and Washington looking increasingly sibly, to agree to the initiation of ber 2019 and early January 2020, hope that the JCPOA’s remain- The burden is now on dim, third-party intervention may broader negotiations. Consider- when the two sides came to the ing parties – France, Germany, well be the only way to break the ing how close the region came brink of war after the US killed the UK, Russia and China – could Europe and others to seek impasse between the two sides. to a conflagration, Iran and its Major General Qassim Soleimani, muster the economic dividends at Efforts by French President Gulf rivals – Saudi Arabia and the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolution- the core of the agreement’s quid a tactical détente between Emmanuel Macron to fashion a United Arab Emirates in particu- ary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. pro quo. That strategy began to US-Iran détente at the UN Gen- lar – ought to build on initial steps A more costly confrontation was shift in May 2019, as the burden the two rivals eral Assembly in September 2019 in parallel and develop diplomatic avoided this time, but the underly- of US sanctions weighed more stumbled at the last minute, but engagement of their own. ing dynamics that led to the preci- heavily, and Europe failed to October saw the beginning of at its bunkered Fordow site and they revealed the contours of a Finally, Tehran should recognize pice remain unchanged. fashion a financial lifeline. Facing an uptick in rocket attacks against running more centrifuges than potential arrangement: economic that the combination of quashing The burden is now on European what it considered an intolerable Iraqi military bases hosting US the deal allows. However, in key reprieve for Iran in exchange for dissent, avoiding major reforms and other third-party mediators to status quo, the Iranians adopted and other international troops, respects there may be less to these Tehran’s compliance with the and playing a perilous nuclear and seek a tactical détente between the their own version of “maximum one of which, on Dec. 27, resulted breaches than meets the eye. For JCPOA and regional de-escala- regional game of chicken is unlikely two rivals that reduces regional pressure”: provocations on the in the death of a US contractor in example, uranium enrichment tion. to prove sustainable. Sanctions tensions and averts a renewed regional and nuclear fronts to Kirkuk. Events then quickly took a levels are still well short of the Soleimani’s killing likely pre- have exacerbated many of Iran’s crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. underscore the fact that Washing- turn for the worse. The US struck pre-JCPOA 20-percent level, and cludes the already unlikely presi- political and economic problems, Since pulling out of the nuclear ton’s siege will not be met with- bases of the Iran-backed Iraqi rigorous inspections by the Inter- dential summit the White House but they did not create them. Tack- agreement, the Trump administra- out a cost, and to prompt greater paramilitary group, Kataib Hez- national Atomic Energy Agency was keen to showcase and thus ling the endemic ills of corruption tion has articulated a sweeping set urgency toward stabilizing the bollah, claiming it was responsible continue apace. In other words, reduces the scope of what could and mismanagement, refraining of demands for what should take JCPOA by means of an economic for the Kirkuk operation. This led Iran has been staggering its non- be agreed upon. But a more from adding fuel to regional fires its place. The list is long, ambitious reprieve. to a mob attack against the US compliance with the likely intent modest arrangement remains and avoiding brash moves that and wholly unrealistic. It includes, From Tehran’s perspective, the embassy compound in Baghdad. of jolting greater efforts to salvage plausible. In particular, more vig- could see it increasingly isolated inter alia, an end to all uranium nuclear and regional escalations Just a few days later, the US killed the agreement, rather than aban- orous European steps to opera- financially and diplomatically may enrichment, ballistic missile pro- are thus two sides of the same Major General Qassim Soleimani doning the deal outright in pursuit tionalize the Instrument for Sup- be a tall order. But the alternative liferation and Iranian support for coin. They are gambits aimed at – one of the Islamic Republic’s of weapons capabilities. port of Trade Exchanges with could be considerably worse. its various local allies and partners breaking the financial strangle- senior military officials and mas- Nevertheless, the JCPOA’s Iran could buoy trade, be supple- across the region. Unilateral US hold placed by sanctions, which termind of its network of proxies three Western European signa- mented through credit lines for sanctions have served as the pri- have in turn fueled economic and and allies across the Middle East. tories concluded they could no Iranian humanitarian goods and ROBERT MALLEY mary tool for securing these con- political discontent within Iran On Jan. 7, Iran responded with a longer act as if the deal were still go hand-in-hand with a resump- is president and CEO of the cessions and succeeded in subject- and strengthened the hand of barrage of missile strikes against respected by Iran and, on Jan. 14, tion of Iranian adherence to the International Crisis Group. ing the Islamic Republic to consid- hardliners for whom the JCPOA Iraqi military bases, injuring 64 US launched the dispute resolution deal. February 2020 The Security Times – Strategy 15

This works quite well in locali- ties that are ungoverned or, at BY YASSIN MUSHARBASH best, poorly governed. Analyst Shadi Hamid recently drove home lmost a year has passed this point in a Brookings Institu- since the Battle of Baghuz Hurry up and wait tion paper when he explained AFawqani in eastern Syria, why “it matters that many people where in March of 2019 fighters The end of the caliphate does not mean the fight against Islamic State is over prefer cruel governance to no gov- of the Islamic State (IS) terror- ernance.” ist organization took their last This is not to say that the set- stance against the Kurdish-led backs are not real. They are very Syrian Democratic Forces and the holding out. The men, women and sible. And it certainly doesn’t help the most part even renewed their In order to understand this fact, real indeed. IS leaders are under- US-led Global Coalition against children live in tunnels and natu- that the future terms under which pledges. In other words, the end we have to accept that IS adher- ground and most likely unable to Daesh. It was there and then that ral caves. the Global Coalition will be able of the caliphate does not mean ents and sympathizers see the communicate to the extent they the IS “caliphate” came to an end. The fighters hide during the to operate in and out of Iraq have their fight is over. organization very differently from would like. They can no longer per- Nothing remains of the pseudo- day, but at night they enter sur- become a lot less clear in the wake In fact, some of these affiliates the way Western analysts do. form their original function as an state the jihadists had set up in rounding villages and extort food, of the killing of Iranian General have grown to become menaces While it may sound counterin- international headquarters for the 2014. But at its zenith, the caliph- money and what they call taxes. Qassim Soleimani and subsequent in their own right. Jihadists in tuitive to us, the IS and its adher- movement. Moreover, the influx of ate comprised an area the size of They also plant mines that regu- Iraqi calls to end the presence of West Africa, many of them asso- ents see the caliphate project as volunteers from abroad that the IS Austria across large parts of Syria larly kill civilians. Western military forces in the ciated with IS, are considered a an almost unconditional success. previously enjoyed is a trickle of and Iraq, with an estimated 8 mil- The Kurdish Peshmerga Forces country. regional threat by intelligence They focus on the fact that their what it once was. lion people as its – mostly – forced make sure not to penetrate these The state of affairs is all the analysts. In Afghanistan, at least “state” managed to exist for four Their propaganda machinery has citizens. areas. The Global Coalition con- more concerning since IS – and its 2,000 fighters act in the name years and that it took a coalition been significantly reduced. Their It took another half year to track ducts sporadic air strikes against predecessors – know how to pre- of IS. In Libya, that number is of 81 global partners four years to capacity to strike the West – tra- down and eliminate the group’s them. But the Iraqi army is hardly vail in situations like this. Before believed to be 800, with experts defeat it. They also interpret the ditionally a recipe to gain recruits notorious leader Abu Bakr al- ever to be seen. their ascent in 2013/14, the group fearing that each of these caliphate as a first – and by far not as well as burnish their reputation Baghdadi. He had overseen the Peshmerga officers claim that had almost been reduced to insig- branches could already have the last – attempt at accomplish- – has suffered substantially. And merciless rule his group imposed dozens of Western and Asian IS nificance. The total number of acquired the ability to plot terror ing a vision. lastly, funding has largely dried up on anyone under IS control and fighters joined this jihadist com- fighters was in the low hundreds. attacks in the West. The Philip- They know that the experi- – although it should be noted that organized a string of brutal terror munity only after the battle of ment in all likelihood cannot be the group may still have access to attacks against targets as far away Baghouz. That means that some repeated any time soon. But their tens and perhaps hundreds of mil- as Paris and Brussels as well as of the estimated 40,000 foreign ideology isn’t based on the idea lions of dollars. genocidal campaigns against Yezi- fighters who had joined ISIS in its that success must be achieved Our current world is generally a dis, Shiites, Christians and other heyday survived that battle and now or soon or even in their life- safer place with respect to jihad- groups in the region. The self- have now taken refuge in the Qara times. ist terror attacks. For the moment, styled caliph, or ruler, over all true Chokh mountains. Several such IS The conditions that What they see instead is that that is. After all, jihadist ideology believers died on Oct. 26, 2019, in pockets continue to exist across the global jihadist movement dictates that one of the most highly his hide-out in Syria’s Idlib prov- northern and eastern Iraq. helped the IS rise still has learned valuable lessons that prized virtues is patience. Jihadists ince when, to avoid capture by In Syria, the Washington Post will help them to get it right the tend to think in historical terms. US special forces, he activated an recently reported, former IS exist or can return next time around. Veterans of the Analysts in the West, on the explosive belt. members have been re-recruited caliphate will thus be influential other hand, tend to envision sce- It is understandable that leaders as recently as in June of 2019. An people for years to come, as they narios that encompass only the across the globe hailed both the unknown number of underground are the bearers of this knowledge. next few years. For the interna- end of the jihadist wannabe-state IS cells dot the east of the country, One of the main lessons already tional community, there is a certain and the demise of al-Baghdadi as conducting attacks, bombings and IS knows how to expand when pines is home to likely as many being implemented is that the risk to underestimating jihadists’ victories of historic proportion. assassinations on a regular basis. circumstances allow it. And under as 750 IS fighters, while Egypt’s best prospects for jihadist suc- stamina and ability to plan long- US President Donald Trump While it is true that tens of thou- adverse conditions, they know Sinai Peninsula is expected to cess exist in places where older term. boasted that the caliphate had sands of IS fighters have been how to lay low, wait and survive. have an equivalent amount. conflicts can be exploited and Smashing the dangerous IS been defeated “100 percent.” But killed and arrested in past years, as This picture becomes even In Egypt alone, the terror- re-framed as part of the global state-building enterprise should – unfortunately – this is true only many as 14,000 IS fighters might gloomier when global develop- ist group claimed 180 attacks in jihadist struggle. This is particu- not be confused with a permanent in the narrowest sense. still be living underground in Syria ments are taken into account. 2018. On Easter Sunday 2019, larly evident in West Africa and defeat of the group. The condi- To understand that the specter and Iraq alone. Even though al-Baghdadi has been jihadists killed over 250 people the Sahel, where jihadists of all tions that helped IS rise still exist of IS isn’t quite over, one need Although they may be mostly replaced by a successor about in multiple suicide bombings stripes, including IS, are brand- or can return – and in more than simply travel to northern Iraq. busy with survival rather than whom virtually nothing is known across Sri Lanka. The perpetra- ing themselves as representatives one place. At the base of the Qara Chokh with planning global terror apart from his nom de guerre, Abu tors belonged to a non-affiliated of disenfranchised and oppressed mountains at the border between attacks, they remain battle-hard- Ibrahim al-Qurashi, not one of local militant Islamist group, but groups. They offer a merit-based the areas under control of the ened, die-hard jihadists waiting the terrorist groups in the Middle they chose to let IS take credit for system of power distribution, as Kurdish Regional Authority and for their next opportunity to con- East, Africa or Asia that pledged their attacks — at a time when well as a degree of accountability YASSIN MUSHARBASH is an investigative reporter and those controlled by Iraq’s cen- tribute to the cause. allegiance to IS in the past has the caliphate was already history. and order often unknown in these terrorism analyst for the German tral government, a community Eliminating them is not an easy terminated their affiliation. They Why is it that the IS label is regions. In some areas, they even newsweekly Die Zeit. of roughly 400 IS fighters is still task; it may indeed prove impos- all remain in the fold and have for apparently still seen as an asset? offer people a livelihood. in government processes and cross-sector industrial applications. industrial cross-sector and processes government in connected more and intelligent more become increasingly will systems and Devices progress. global fundamental drive and together people more bring we can safe, and open, affordable, universal, digital making By inclusion. economic basic drives and convenience beyond goes connected Being internet. the to access without remains population global of the half almost connected, grows evermore world the Although technology. new the from most the benefiting services financial and professional and utilities, manufacturing, as such sectors with years, 15 next the over economy global the to dollars US trillion 2.2 contribute will 5G by 2025. billion to 25 triple will IoT connections of global number The by 2025. billion 1.4 reach will connections of5G number the 2019, Barcelona in released GSMA the from to According data growth. accelerated this in role a major playing is 5G GDP. global ofthe (24.3%) aquarter almost represent will economy digital the by 2025, words: other In by 2025. potential economic new in dollars US trillion 23 produce will economy digital The years. 15 past the over GDP global than faster times 2.5 grown has economy digital world’s economy. 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ADVERTORIAL February 2020 The Security Times 17 CHALLENGES

SHUTTERSTOCK/ LALS STOCK In the thick of it: The Motherland Monument in Kyiv, Ukraine

UKRAINE IS PEACE UKRAINE IS PEACE possible? possible?

Borderland: Ukraine is not at full-blown war – The people of Ukraine remain highly skeptical but it's not at peace either of all negotiations with Moscow

debts, as creditors have no hope People’ Republics of Donetsk and military skirmishes, the ravages The Ukrainian people are aware BY VIKTOR LOSHAK of finding you on the other side. Luhansk, not after them. Russia BY DMITRI STRATIEVSKI of war and an overall lack of pros- that an end to the war and the Those seeking peace must not is adamant that it is impossible pects. It should come as little reintegration of the – in official he war in Donbass has only balance the interests of the to amend the agreement. Putin krainians are weary of surprise that the overwhelm- jargon – “various districts in the already lasted longer than warring parties and find compro- refuses to transfer control over war. Seventy percent ing majority of Ukrainians place regions of Donetsk and Luhansk TRussia’s involvement in mises, they must also overcome the border to Ukraine ahead Uof them chose peace as urgent priority on finding a swift with special autonomy” requires World War II. Seventy-five years human ambitions, traumas and of schedule. Giving the Ukrai- their top wish for the new year, end to the military conflict. How- compromise. But the willing- ago, the grandfathers of most of faith in the bullet as the only jus- nian side control of the border despite several other crises facing ever, it is not prepared to pay for ness to broker one is limited. those who are still killing each tice possible. between Russia and Donbass, he the country, like poverty and cor- peace at any price. Renouncing a possible future other in Eastern Ukraine today, Now there is a lull in Donbass. argues, could unleash a new Sre- ruption. Such were the results What will peace cost? membership in the EU and toiled in trenches nearby. As in In three hot spots, Zolotoy, brenica – there could be mass kill- of the most recent survey of its Any cession of territory to NATO, recognizing Russian as every war, the logic of revenge Pervomaysky and the town of ings of the local population by the kind at the end of 2019. Much the benefit of another coun- a second official language, ter- and forgiveness has long since Luhansk, opposing troops are National Guard of Ukraine. This like it was during his successful try or long-term territorial loss minating the association agree- ripped itself away from politics. separated by 50 kilometers. At fear is not altogether groundless. campaign for president, peace in such as the establishment of a ment with Brussels and granting We all remember how, a few another three hotspots, the sepa- “Strangle the hydra of separat- Ukraine was the centerpiece of quasi “independent” entity not amnesty to all separatists – are months ago, the Ukrainian presi- ration has been scheduled, but for ism” is a widely accepted phrase Volodymyr Zelensky’s new year’s controlled by Kyiv would be all nonstarters. More than half dent flew to the front to persuade various reasons is not underway. in Ukrainian political discourse. address to his fellow citizens. unacceptable to the majority of of those surveyed refuse to work volunteer groups to comply with As usual, the warring factions Germany and France, the other But what would constitute Ukrainians. A survey from Octo- toward this goal while the vio- the decision of the authorities blame each other. Pensioners are two partners in the Normandy peace in Ukraine? ber 2019 revealed that almost lence continues. and leave the front as the with- Format, can moderate meetings Although the Minsk II agree- three-quarters of those ques- Is peace possible? drawal of troops began. They did between the presidents of Russia ment signed in February 2015 put tioned will not even entertain Seventy-two percent of respon- not believe him, and one of the Putin insists and Ukraine, but they cannot, an end to the bloodiest battles in the idea of ceding the territory of dents consider the conflict in most popular volunteers, Masha and don’t even want to, insist on Donbass and only seldom are siz- the self-proclaimed “republics.” Donbass to be nothing short Zveroboy, spoke about the presi- that giving changing the so-called “Stein- able tank units and heavy artillery That “Donbass will remain Ukrai- of war with Russia. After all, dent and his visit in such a way meier formula.” This proposal deployed in the area, the war is nian” also enjoys political con- Moscow is backing the autonomy that she is now under heated criti- Kyiv control envisions Ukraine regaining con- decidedly not over and continues sensus. Even the Russia-friendly of renegade Ukrainian regions cism in Kyiv for her statements. trol of its border with Russia pro- to claim an immense human and parliamentary group Opposition and will not relinquish its hold A Moscow newspaper has pub- of the border vided that free and fair local elec- financial toll. Platform advocates for Ukrainian on this strategic lever of power lished revelations of a heroine tions be held in Russian-occupied Since 2014, more than 13,000 unity. without a fight. But the majority from the other side of the front between Donbass under Ukrainian legisla- people have died in the crisis Furthermore, the Ukrainian of Ukrainians fears the expansion – a female sniper from Donetsk. tion, which, in turn, would allow region, including almost 4,000 population remains steadfast in of Russia’s sphere of influence. She has deliberately killed enemy Russia and the region to receive its self-gov- Ukrainian soldiers, most of its criticism of the idea of issuing It wants to reintegrate Donbass combatants and would like to kill erning status. As a result, hopes whom were young recruits and a special status within the coun- without changing the political more. She is about 30 years old, Donbass for peace in Eastern Ukraine are volunteers. In 2019 alone, almost try for several regions of East- status quo across the entire coun- has a husband, two children and again giving way to distrust and 100 members of the Ukrainian ern Ukraine. Fifty-six percent of try; Ukraine’s policymakers share a house full of beloved pets. She could unleash confusion. Army were slain in battle, while those surveyed see Donetsk and this desire. says that she has never shot at sol- This is due primarily to over- survivors have returned home Luhansk as part of a unified state France and Germany, the other diers in Ukraine’s armed forces, a new blown expectations of the Paris with new cases of physical and under conditions similar to those two parties of the Normandy but only at volunteers. One sol- meeting held at the end of last psychological trauma. before 2014. Only 13 percent Format, are evidently not prepared dier she wounded deliriously Srebrenica year. Clearly, there is sympathy Furthermore, the monetary could accept greater autonomy to ramp up their efforts – a stance shouted “Mummy!” She emptied for the young Ukrainian presi- burden has been enormous. In rights for Donbass. that was made patently clear at a whole cartridge of her sniper taking advantage of the lull; on dent, even among Russians, many 2018, Petro Poroshenko revealed For the broad spectrum of the group’s most recent meeting rifle into him and does not regret days when Ukrainian pensions of whom are aware of Zelensky’s toLa Repubblica that Ukraine’s the political, financial and cul- in Paris. In other words, the guns it. War. She will never forget how are issued, thousands of elderly efforts to maintain his election military commitments in the east tural elite, a special status for have little chance of falling silent her husband was shot and seri- people cross the border – that is, promise and achieve peace in of the country cost the govern- the unsettled region would be for any significant period of time ously injured near the city of Hor- the front – in order to queue for Donbass. This includes his tele- ment $5 million each day. The a nightmare, as it could mean in the foreseeable future. Even livka. hours at ATMs. phone conversations with Putin war zone comprises about one- noticeable political influence on partial successes such as the latest Over the past five years, thou- It seems that their lives will not – during the last year-and-a-half third of Ukraine’s peacetime the balance of powers and on prisoner swap do little to change sands of people on both sides of become more peaceful just yet. of Poroshenko’s reign, the Rus- industrial output. Major facto- blocking further ties to the West. this grim truth. the conflict have become pro- Ukraine would like to change the sian president had refused to talk ries and coal facilities are now A federal ordinance to affix a spe- fessionals in war, which allows Minsk Protocol, both in terms of to Ukraine’s president. It also in ruins; unemployment in the cial status to the region, which a them to write everything off. For content and scheduling. Thus, includes the return of Ukrainian region has reached 60 percent. few years ago was still a subject DMITRI STRATIEVSKI example, it’s noticeable that some Kyiv would like to take control of ships held in the Kerch Strait. More than one million inter- of public debate, is now consid- is vice chairman of the of the volunteers fighting on both the border between Donbass and nally displaced persons have had ered to be on equal terms with continued on page 18 Osteuropa-Zentrum in Berlin. sides have fled to escape their Russia before the elections in the to abandon their homes due to separatism. 18 The Security Times – Challenges February 2020

MIDDLE EAST IS PEACE possible?

A reconciliation process cannot get underway without the continued from page 17 participation of the two parties directly involved

And there were two exchanges no longer categorize West Bank settle- the security and future of the entire And now, just in time for Israel’s third of prisoners, including key fig- BY GISELA DACHS ments “per se” as illegal. Since then, Middle East.” In Gantz’s opinion, how- election within one year, Washington ures such as the Luhansk mili- particularly in radical circles in Israel, ever, the fate of the settlements should has re-entered the game with its long- tia officer Volodymyr Tsemakh hen Federica Mogherini demands for the immediate annexa- be decided by agreements that “meet awaited Middle East Peace Plan. As and the Ukrainian filmmaker became the European tion of large areas of land are being security requirements and can advance expected, the plan is more strongly in Oleg Sentsov, who had been sen- WUnion’s High Represen- expressed in increasingly loud tones. peace.” In other words, if Gantz hap- line with the views of the Israeli right tenced to life in a Russian prison. tative for Foreign Affairs and Security However, in each of these cases – with pens to become the next Israeli prime than all previous US drafts. The plan Sentsov expresses little faith in Policy in November 2014, she was opti- the exception of some rather adventur- minister, it could mean a change of also displays Trump’s desire to help a possible Donbass settlement: mistic about the future of the Israeli- ous transfer plans – these radical voices course in the Israeli-Palestinian rela- his friend Netanyahu politically while “Putin doesn’t regard us as a state. Palestinian relationship. At the time, she have yet to provide an answer to the tionship. Indeed, if he succeeds in form- simultaneously mobilizing American For him, we are little more than suggested that it might even be possible question of the status of the Palestin- ing a more centrist government and evangelicals for his own re-election in a rebellious province that the to reach a two-state solution within ian populations residing in these areas. relegating right-wing forces such as the the fall. empire should call to order.” her five-year term. Today, Mogherini’s Rabin’s basic premise that the Israeli Palestinian-American commentator Beyond this, however, it remains Before nationalists staged mass successor, Josep Borrell, has taken over state cannot be simultaneously Jewish, Daoud Kuttab to the sidelines after a highly questionable whether this move protests, Zelensky had expressed the reins at the EU foreign office, and democratic and all-embracing continues decade in power, it wouldn’t necessarily by Trump can actually achieve a break- his faith in achieving a break- there has been no progress whatsoever to apply to this day. This premise is also deliver an overnight breakthrough, but through. As expected, the Palestinian through toward peace at the on the Israeli-Palestinian front. It is also ultimately accepted by Israelis who see it might mark the beginning of a brand- leadership immediately rejected the Paris talks. Not long beforehand, highly doubtful that President Trump's it as their historical birthright to settle new peace process. plan. At the same time, they also had to Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s top adviser, spoke of Kyiv’s readiness for constitutional reform and the provision of special powers for Donetsk and Luhansk. The prob- lem with this approach, however, PRESS IMAGES/ZUMA IMAGO is that it would turn the sepa- ratist-controlled territories into a state within a state. It’s easy to see how other ethnic enclaves – such as Hungarians in Trans- carpathia – would react to this. The fact remains that the Minsk Protocol had the support of Kyiv. But creating a territory within the country that is beyond Kyiv’s con- trol would have catastrophic con- sequences for Zelensky’s career. Speaking the night after the talks in Paris, the president expressed views on key political issues that were almost in line with his rival and predecessor Poroshenko: Ukraine will not accept constitu- tional changes that will lead to a violation of the country's unity, and the government will never negotiate directly with the leaders of the DPR and LPR. What will happen to Donbass if Russia rigidly supports the “Steinmeier formula,” Ukraine insists on changes to the agree- ment and Europe continues to pressure Moscow with sanc- tions? The answer to this ques- tion remains elusive in the Rus- sian capital because everyone suspects Donbass will gradually become another Transnistria. Just Deal of the century? Palestinian demonstrators during a protest against the Trump administration’s proposed Middle East Peace Plan in Gaza City. as in Moldova, Eastern Ukrainian authorities will not be able to find recently published Middle East Peace on biblical soil. In other words, in order If this were to occur, the next ques- acknowledge a loss of standing. Since a common political denominator. Plan will bring the parties any closer to to safeguard the Zionist project, they tion would be who exactly the Israelis the onset of the Arab uprisings in 2011, But economically and in terms of resolving the conflict. see it as necessary to separate from the would meet at the negotiating table. The many have viewed the Israeli-Palestin- everyday life, people will learn to In fact, the word “peace” is seldom Palestinians. Palestinians are still deeply divided into ian conflict as just one of several con- live together. heard these days in the public debates Among those who adhere to this two political camps. Hamas, an Islamist flicts in the region. The authors of the There are reports that the on both sides. For domestic political school of thought is Benny Gantz, party, has ruled in the Gaza Strip since US plan are relying on the plan being Ukrainian government is now reasons alone, neither Israeli Prime Netanyahu’s challenger from the 2006, while President Abbas’ Fatah party accepted by those Arab states whose considering resuming railway Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who Blue and White party. Gantz vaguely remains in power in the West Bank. New interests coincide with US and Israeli links with the districts of Donetsk remains in office even after being embraced the “important statement” elections have been promised and, this positions regarding Tehran. To date, and Luhansk, regions not con- indicted and is seeking re-election on from the US government, noting that time, all sides have stated at least their such voices have been very restrained, trolled by Kyiv. Given its coal- March 2, nor the 85-year-old Palestin- it demonstrated America’s firm stance theoretical desire to participate. How- if heard at all. Although the number of oriented CHP power plans and ian President Mahmud Abbas, who last alongside Israel and its “commitment to ever, both camps are struggling for legiti- optimists has declined over the years, industry, it’s proving difficult received direct legitimization from Pal- macy in the eyes of their own popula- such hopeful voices argue that the plan for Ukraine to live without coal estinians in the West Bank 15 years ago, tions, and many Palestinians would like has at least brought the issue back onto from Donbass. Yet, despite the are in any major way interested in a to see new forces come to power. the table and that it could lead to the ban, there are all sorts of ways to process of reconciliation. In order to counter growing criti- resumption of a peace process. But that acquire coal. From today’s perspective, the Oslo cism of the Hamas regime, its leaders will also depend on the results of the For example, one Belarusian Accord signed by Israeli Prime Minister Just in time for will have to do a lot more for the two elections in Israel and the US. At this oligarch has received a large Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chief Yasser million people in their charge. It is no point, it would be wise for the Pales- quota for the sale of Russian coal Arafat on the lawn of the White House Israel’s third longer enough to rally these people tinians to take time to reflect on and to Ukraine. Whether the coal in 1993, belongs to a bygone era. At – most of whom are barely eking out perhaps even question their past politi- is from Russia or Donbass is an that time, the hawks in Rabin’s camp election within a living in the Gaza Strip – in hatred cal strategy of categorically rejecting open question. And finally, the were convinced they had reached a of the Zionists. This is the reason proposals – some of which were better question of the transit of Russian point where Israel was strong enough one year, why Hamas held back during the last than what lies before them today. gas through Ukraine has been to deter its Arab neighbors from plans exchange of blows between Israel and Ultimately, a renewed peace process settled and takes into account the to wipe it off the map. According to this Washington Islamic Jihad in Gaza, thereby prov- cannot get underway without the par- interests of the territories occu- logic, the historical compromise with ing that it is capable of creating and ticipation of the two parties directly pied by the separatists. the Palestinians would ultimately bring has re-entered maintaining an atmosphere of calm. involved. These days, it looks like nei- Geopolitics has played a cruel Israel more security and more “nor- A long-term cease-fire between Israel ther the time nor the region is ripe for joke on everyone: on those who malcy.” A lot of water has passed under the game with and Hamas under the aegis of Egypt that step. were in a hurry to become part of the proverbial bridge since then. Today, and with the help of UN Special Rep- the liberal world; on those who many Israelis have adopted a narrative its long-awaited resentative Nikolay Mladenov has been did not want to; and on those that is not entirely unjustified, namely under negotiation ever since. If this who, like in Putin’s Russia, tried that whenever their army withdraws Middle East succeeds, it could mean at least a few to prevent it by all means pos- from territories – for example, from years of rest for Israelis living on the sible. It seems that the new politi- Lebanon in 2000 and the Gaza Strip Peace Plan edge of the Gaza Strip – that is, no cal generation will have to start in 2005 – the tendency is for Islamists siren alarms and rocket fire. In return, from a point even more distant to then take control in those areas the population in Gaza would have and incomprehensible than the and maneuver into a better position the opportunity to recover economi- Belovezha accords that regulated to attack Israel. In this case, however, cally and take advantage of increased GISELA DACHS the end of the USSR. security concerns also overlap with freedom of movement. This would by is a long-time Israel-based correspondent for the German ideological claims. no means be the equivalent of peace, weekly Die Zeit. She is now a senior This is why the remarks made in if only because Hamas would not be lecturer at the European Forum November by US Secretary of State obliged to recognize Israel. At the same and the DAAD Center for German VIKTOR LOSHAK is strategy director for the Pompeo came at just the right moment time, however, an agreement such as Studies at Hebrew University in Moscow daily Kommersant. for Israelis in the right-wing camp. this would enhance Hamas’ standing Jerusalem. Pompeo announced that the US would both domestically and internationally. February 2020 The Security Times – Challenges 19

IS PEACE possible? LIBYA

Libya is prey to the machinations of a host of external actors

The forceful attempt by the the arms embargo, the cessation BY TAREK MEGERISI UAE, along with Egypt and of financing military capabilities France, to push the would-be and of recruiting mercenaries; he complexity of the con- strongman Khalifa Haftar into a respect for international humani- flict raging in Libya has position of de facto power has tarian law and human rights. A Tlong been well known. defined Libya’s past five years 5+5 Military Committee – five Yet the underpinnings of a ten- – even as several other Euro- representatives each for Prime able process that could stabi- pean states attempted to create Minister Fayez Sarraj and Marshal lize if not reverse the country’s power-sharing deals and a unity Khalifa Haftar – was installed for downward spiral since 2011 are government. Yet Haftar himself substantial and serious talks. also well known – among the got mired in an increasingly inter- Unfortunately, neither the arms country’s small pool of experts, necine war with little hope of a embargo nor the cease-fire have diplomacy professionals and by clean victory. been upheld since the Berlin the UN Special Representative Libya’s immediate neighbors conference. The two Libyan par- Ghassan Salamé. could be destabilized if the coun- ties started their negotiations The general framework of such try continues to burn. Europe, in Geneva, but a lasting truce is a process is apparent in Salamé’s too, has found itself increasingly not yet in the offing, let alone a consistent proposals, beginning vulnerable to Libya’s destabiliza- durable peace. with his first action plan in 2017. tion. The migration crisis is only Yet peace in Libya is possible, The oft-cited tale of how each of temporarily contained. Moreover, provided that outside powers these proposals was sabotaged the lawless and hostile environ- pursuing their own national inter-

– by states who claim to sup- ment of war continues to be an PICTURE ALLIANCE/ZULUPRESS.DE ests agree to stop interfering. The port his work – before they could incubator for jihadism while Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (back row, 2nd from right) later complained about his position in the likelihood of that happening is even be implemented explains Libyan counter-terror forces photograph at the Libya conference in Berlin on Jan. 19. “This was a mistake by German protocol officials. now directly tied to Europe’s will- why peace is unlikely to return remain distracted with their bat- This is not where the Italian prime minister belongs.” ingness to establish order in its to Libya anytime soon. tles against one another. southern neighborhood. Libya’s geostrategic location More recently, the prolonged energy interests. Turkey’s grab- ing to get embroiled in a new needs to proceed with policies at the heart of both the Medi- state of civil war has drawn bing of the East Mediterranean Middle East adventure where its that prioritize Libya’s stability. terranean and the Arab world, Turkey and Russia into the region gas fields has made headlines, allies are fighting one another At the Libya conference held its hydrocarbon wealth and in a way that uniquely threatens but the possibility that Russia through proxies. If Europe wants by the German government in immense economic potential Europe. adds the Greenstream pipeline to make peace more likely, it Berlin in January, 16 states and have lured many opportunists While Turkey responded to an – exporting Libyan gas to Italy – will have to take action before international organizations to meddle in its politics. The official request for security assis- to its growing collection of gas it is entirely frozen out by rival attempted to unify international craven nature of Libya’s politi- tance by the embattled govern- channels into Europe should powers. support for a political solution cal class and its sustained search ment in Tripoli, President Putin perhaps be the cause of greater As Salamé himself has said, the of the Libyan crisis. “There can for foreign support opened decided to back Haftar. Russia has concern. international nature of the con- be no military solution in Libya,” the doors to foreign influence become an increasingly crucial All the while, the United States flict demands an international they declared. “Only a Libyan-led TAREK MEGERISI is a policy fellow with the North from Qatar and the United Arab part of the general’s war effort. has been noticeable for its solution. This means having a Libyan-owned political process Africa and Middle East program Emirates as early as 2011. That The formation of zones of Rus- absence. Having long held the state, or coalition of states, will- can end the conflict and bring at the European Council on is when the proxy war in Libya sian and Turkish influence in position that Libya is Europe’s ing to play the role of referee lasting peace.” They called for a Foreign Relations. began. Libya poses threats to European responsibility, the US is unwill- and provide the UN the space it sustained cease-fire; for observing 20 The Security Times – Challenges February 2020

YEMEN

BY SAID ALDAILAMI

ince March 2015, a horrific war has raged in Yemen Sunder the direction of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. All rules and norms relating to international law and laws of armed conflict are being trampled underfoot. The result is the worst humanitarian crisis of the 21st century. Even after five years of fighting, a peace deal appears unlikely in the medium term. Too many parties and small groups now profit from the war and the war economy. Moreover, the two chief protago- nists, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have yet to achieve their geostra- tegic objectives. The only hope is that a UN-sponsored ceasefire deal in 2020 could clear the way for a political resolution to the conflict in the coming years. Yemen today is more fragmented than ever, territorially, socially, ethnically and religiously. The country’s infrastructure has been destroyed. The education and health care systems have ceased functioning and the country is facing total economic collapse. Any future agreement designed to settle the conflict in Yemen would automatically imply a redefinition of the country’s state- hood. The unified state authority,

citizenship and contiguous terri- PICTURE ALLIANCE / AA tory would probably give way to Suffer the children: A malnourished infant at Sabeen hospital in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, Oct. 7, 2019. a mosaic of states, the pieces of which would be beholden to the tion to at least 130,000 mortalities cementing alliances with the area’s battle-hardened Shi’ite Yemen to islands that can be exploited both attracted huge public attention various regional powers. This sce- indirectly caused by the fighting. influential tribes, which have since the south. militarily and for tourism. and put the Saudi leadership on nario would no doubt create fertile Add to this 3.65 million refugees declared their allegiance to the As crown prince, MBS is seeking For some time now, the UAE the defensive. Khashoggi’s abhor- ground for additional wars in the and internally displaced persons, new leader of the Houthi move- to hone his profile for when the has proudly claimed the nickname rent killing inside a Saudi consulate near future. 20 million who live in poverty ment, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi. Rela- time comes to succeed his father, “Little Sparta” and, in the medium revealed the true face of the state By March 2020, the war in – including 14.3 million acutely tions between the Shi’ite Houthis who is now 84 years old. Only as a term, wants to replace Israel as the driving the war in Yemen. For the Yemen will have lasted a full five threatened by famine – and some and Iran – once only marginal – bold and successful commander- premier US ally in the Middle East. Saudis, an immediate cessation of years. Back in the spring of 2015, two million children who cannot are steadily expanding as the war in-chief and putative victor over Over the past decade, the Emirates the fighting in and around Hodeida Saudi Arabia and the UAE decided go to school. progresses. They now constitute a Iran can he gain the support of the has broadened its influence in the was the logical choice to prevent to start bombarding Yemen with Yet the military alliance has stable axis that will remain in place Saudi people, who have been ruled Middle East both economically even more unwanted public scru- the help of a military alliance of failed to expel the Houthis from after the war has ended. by a gerontocracy since the found- and militarily. Huge investments tiny and hostility. ing of their state and are unaccus- in port facilities along the Red Sea In 2020, two big events will have tomed to young political figures. and Gulf of Aden are planned or the potential to halt the war in At the foreign policy level, Saudi already going ahead. Yemen, at least temporarily, and Arabia under MBS is seeking to Additional ground and maritime enable a ceasefire. IS PEACE create the image of a regional bases would aid the UAE in secur- Saudi Arabia took over the G20 power that is open to the world ing its vital oil transport routes presidency at the end of 2019 and yet sets the rules in the Arab realm while helping curtail Iranian is planning to hold this year’s G20 possible? and beyond. This is the motiva- expansion. In addition to Assab summit in Riyadh. The UAE has tion behind the country’s top- in Eritrea and Berbera in Somalil- long been advertising its Expo down liberalization, its willingness and, these projects include Port 2020, due to begin in October. to strike deals with Israel and its Sudan, Mukalla in Yemen and If these two Gulf states want to No peace in sight in Yemen, just slender hopes for a cease-fire medium-term objective of ensur- Bosaso in Somalia. ensure big turnouts for these two ing its own security without the The Saudis, meanwhile, are focus- key events, they will first have to need for US help. ing on controlling important gov- burnish their images. For this, the Saudis need a sea- ernorates in Yemen’s interior. The The Emiratis moved first, with- Arab and African states and to Sana’a, the capital, and return the It was the David and Goliath soned military capable of respond- aim is to secure broad stretches of drawing nearly all their troops use mercenaries on the ground ousted government to the country. war that drove the Houthis firmly ing to and coping with the region’s the country as quasi-protectorates from Yemen, yet without pro- to force the country to capitu- Hadi and his cabinet continue to into the Iranian camp. Their fight- breakneck pace of change. As the under complete Saudi control once viding their allied groups in late. Although it violated interna- conduct their government work ing tactics, internal structure and training ground for his previously the fighting ends. Saudi forces are Yemen with necessary financing tional law, the US and many other mostly from exile. national and international agendas weak and inexperienced army, especially present in the eastern and equipment. And for several Western states supported this Support for this government- have since come to mirror those of the PlayStation aficionado chose governorate of Al Mahrah, which months now, Saudi Arabia has war under the pretext of seeking in-exile among the Yemeni popu- their alleged role model, the Hez- Yemen, where he could convert his stretches along the entire Yemeni- been conducting direct talks with to reinstate the legitimate gov- lation has largely withered. Still, bollah militia in Lebanon. world of war games from virtual to Omani border. the Houthis. The tangible results ernment of President Abdrab- the Saudis are sticking with Hadi What went wrong with Opera- real. As an aspiring regional power, The Saudis are also building a of these talks will become clear in buh Mansur Hadi, who had been because he provides justification tion Decisive Storm? Why did the Saudi Arabia is taking its first steps pipeline through the governorate the coming months. driven from the capital Sana’a by for their military intervention. alliance fail to continue its string of at the expense of the defenseless of Hadhramaut. Occupation of Al Regardless of all the speculation Ansar Allah’s Houthis. While he was still the country’s early successes? How can it be that Yemeni population while testing Mahrah would allow them to ship over a truce in Yemen, the coun- The Saudi military’s initial head of state, Hadi reportedly this military alliance under Saudi its most modern weaponry. There their oil from the southernmost try’s fate seems already sealed. four-week blitzkrieg – Operation requested the intervention to leadership, equipped with the most has been much ridicule of Saudi parts of the Arabian Peninsula, The most likely result of this war Decisive Storm – has long since expel the Houthis from Sana’a. modern arms and Western know- Arabia’s waste of expensive mili- conveniently bypassing the Per- is a partitioned country, divided become a ruinous war of attri- Early on, the Saudi-Emirati plan how, has yet to recapture Sana’a? tary equipment in Yemen; West- sian Gulf and freeing the Saudis into at least two autonomously tion and annihilation that has seemed to be working. Within The answers are multi-tiered and ern arms makers can barely keep from having to navigate the Strait ruled areas in which the Yemeni so far cost tens of thousands of weeks, Houthi fighters that had focus on the alliance’s two main up with the Gulf state’s appetite of Hormuz, which their archen- people are not their own masters lives. Seemingly random airstrikes advanced as far as the port city protagonists: Mohammad bin for more military machinery. emy Iran can threaten at will. and most inhabitants remain vul- against military, civilian and cul- of Aden at the start of 2015 were Salman (MBS), Defense Minister Similar dreams of regional Moreover, a Saudi occupation of nerable to famine, drought and tural targets have only added to driven from virtually all their con- and Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, power have also long been occu- Al Mahrah would deprive Yemen intermittent conflict. the suffering. quered territory in the country’s and Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), pying the mind of MBZ. His prag- of its border with Oman, leav- The humanitarian situation in south. The alliance’s superior- brother of the sidelined president matic alliance with MBS is meant ing Saudi Arabia as Yemen’s sole Yemen deteriorates with each ity in the air and on sea swiftly of the UAE and de facto leader of to help realize the Emiratis’ own neighbor. Oman disapproves of additional day of fighting. Hos- shut down supply routes for the the Emirates. dreams of hegemony. One of their this expansion, regarding it – as it pitals, schools, markets, civilian Houthis, who then pulled back On a personal and psychologi- key aims is to bring as many ports does the Yemeni governorate on factories, warehouses, reservoirs, within the territory of former cal level, MBS displays signs of as possible on both sides of the its southwest border – as a buffer and farmland as well as even pris- North Yemen. Despite the uneven paranoia and an urge to stand Red Sea under their control. Most region and its own sphere of influ- ons, orphanages, festival halls and fight, however, the alliance’s pub- out from others. His paranoia already are. Control of the port of ence in Yemen. community centers are all targets licly declared objectives continue focuses mostly on a possible alli- Aden and the key offshore islands In 2018, when the alliance nearly SAID ALDAILAMI of the Saudi air campaign. to be elusive. ance between Iran and a Houthi- in the Arabian Sea constitute an retook the strategically important is a political scientist and a The toll of this war is appalling. Sana’a remains firmly in the controlled Yemen. In that event, incalculable strategic advantage. port town of Hodeida from the retired Bundeswehr officer. As of December 2019, more than hands of the Houthis. They con- Saudi Arabia would find itself in a This is why the Emiratis’ attention Houthis, they were forced to relent He is the Hanns Seidel Foundation’s regional director 100,000 people had been killed tinue to control most of former “Shi’ite vise” between a powerful is directed mainly at Yemeni towns at the last minute. The case of mur- for Tunisia, Algeria and Libya. in direct conflict action, in addi- North Yemen and are consistently Iran to the north and a weaker but on the Red Sea coast and the many dered journalist Jamal Khashoggi February 2020 The Security Times – Challenges 21

IS PEACE possible? AFGHANISTAN

Afghan v. Afghan – Civilian casualties caused by pro-government forces increased in 2019

just the propaganda they’re trapped amounts to an average of 20 strikes BY EMRAN FEROZ in. We have to consider the fact a day, according to the Pentagon. that everyone in Baghlan grew up “Airstrikes happen in Baghlan he situation here is not with violence. They don’t know PICTURE ALLIANCE / AA too, but there are considerably good. Actually, this place anything else,” says Sattar. more in neighboring Kunduz,” Tis never considered safe,” While the US re-initiated peace said Mohammad Sultan, who grew said Mir Suleiman, a teacher from talks with the Taliban at the end of up in the region. Large parts of the northern Afghan province of 2019 in Qatar, people in Baghlan Kunduz province are controlled by Baghlan. He grew up in an area do not think that even a peace deal the Taliban. In 2015, its provincial called “the factory,” which is would bring any immediate change capital fell into the hands of the named after a sugar works built to their lives. The US-Taliban talks insurgents for a few days. The tem- in the 1940s near Puli Khumri, the are focused on the withdrawal of porary fall of Kunduz was a shock provincial capital. American troops from Afghani- for both President Ashraf Ghani The area, once an economic hub stan. It’s not about ending the and his international backers. It that attracted laborers and mer- war in which Afghans are fighting was the first large city captured by chants from all around the coun- Afghans. Most battles are taking the Taliban since 2001. try, is now haunted by violence. place between the Taliban and the The city was later liberated, but Several parts of Baghlan are con- Afghan security forces. “it’s wrong to believe that the Tali- trolled or contested by the Tali- “Any peace deal would be good, ban are gone,” said another local ban. Fighting between insurgents but we need to stop killing our- resident. “They don’t control the and security forces occurs on a selves. A deal with the Americans city, but they are everywhere else. daily basis. “The other side of the would not guarantee enduring Their fighters regularly come river belongs to the Taliban. You peace in Baghlan and many other to Baghlan. This is happening can see and hear their motorcy- parts of Afghanistan,” said Moham- because we have a weak and cor- cles,” said Farzad Sattar, a local mad Sultan, a local. He points homes in remote villages, forced band all irregular forces,” Patricia and or accountability to interna- rupt government.” engineer. out that government forces have disappearances, torture and sum- Gossman, HRW’s Associate Asia tional law. The militias are active While some youngsters are busy become extremely violent as well, mary executions. Director and the report’s author, all over the country, most recently fishing nearby, Sattar describes and often target civilians. “They “CIA-backed Afghan forces in told The Security Times after speak- in the provinces of Khost, Paktia, how the war continues to tear apart don’t care if you’re an insurgent case after case have disregarded ing to three dozen witnesses of Paktika, Nangarhar and Wardak. families and friends in the province. or not. They just attack you and protections to which civilians and such operations. According to the UN, Afghan and “We all know each other here. But question later.” detainees are entitled, and have In the 50-page report released international military forces were you will find people fighting on dif- Recent reports emphasize that committed war crimes. In case last October, the New York-based responsible for at least 484 civilian ferent sides, even within families. civilian casualties caused by pro- after case, these forces have simply rights group documents 14 cases deaths and 777 civilian injuries in There’s one brother who joins the government forces increased in shot people in their custody and across nine provinces over the last 2019. At least 468 of those civilian EMRAN FEROZ Taliban, and there’s another one 2019. For example, a new report consigned entire communities to two years. According to HRW, deaths were attributed to foreign is a freelance journalist who goes to the Afghan National by Human Rights Watch (HRW) the terror of abusive night raids the cases clearly illustrate that the military forces. Most of these casu- focusing on the Middle East Army.” Young men can be easily documents the violence caused and indiscriminate airstrikes. Afghan forces trained and funded alties are the result of airstrikes. and Central Asia. He regularly reports from recruited by the Taliban and then by CIA-backed Afghan militias The US and Afghan governments by the US intelligence agency have US forces conducted at least 7,423 and on Afghanistan. leave their families. “I think it’s not known for night-time raids at should end this pathology and dis- shown little concern for civilian life air strikes in 2019, a new high that

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QW_AZ_GermanTimes_2019_290x254-D-RZ.indd 1 01.02.19 11:34 1. COLOMBIA 5. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (CAR) 9. EGYPT: SINAI 13. IRAQ BEGINNING 1964 BEGINNING 2006 BEGINNING 2014 BEGINNING 2003 KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, ELN, FARC dissidents, EPL, paramilitary groups KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, former Séléka rebel group, Anti-Balaka, other militias KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (ABM), various armed groups KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Peshmerga forces, Shia militias, Sunni militias, ISIL Violence between various paramilitary groups, criminal gangs and government forces contin- EXTERNAL ACTORS France (Operation Sangaris), MINUSCA, EUFOR, Russian Private Jihadist groups based in Sinai have increased their activities since the ouster of authoritarian EXTERNAL ACTORS Iran, Turkey, PKK, Anti-IS coalition led by the US ues despite a 2016 peace treaty with the main guerilla group FARC. The conflict dates back Security Company Wagner Group President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, with the military being the target of operations, especially Iraq is still suffering from the fall-out of the 2003 invasion by the US-led international coalition, to 1964 when left-wing rebel groups tried to seize power and were repelled by government since the coup d’état against the Islamist government of Mohamed Morsi in 2013. In the wake The majority-Muslim Séléka coalition from the north toppled authoritarian president François with the main factors being violence among sectarian militias and armed opposition against forces. By the 1980s, right-wing paramilitary groups, drug lords and organized crime were of the overthrow and after serving as deputy prime minister for just over eight months, Abdel Bozizé in 2013. The Séléka subsequently committed gross human rights violations in the international forces in the country. Public protests against rising political influence by Iran in colluding to defend the status quo through a campaign of terror. While FARC and its allies Fattah el-Sisi, one of the leaders of the successful coup, was elected to be the sixth president Christian and animist south, leading to the emergence of Christian militias (Anti-balaka) and 2019 were met with brutal force by the government. The unlawful killing of Iranian General declare they are fighting for the rights of Colombia’s poor, and the government claims to of Egypt. ABM’s pledge of allegiance to IS in late 2014 escalated the situation further, with civil war. Despite several peace agreements and an AU and UN presence, a climate of chaos Qassim Soleimani by the US army on Iraqi soil has further escalated the situation, while the be for order and stability, all sides have been accused of human rights violations and are attacks taking place beyond the peninsula. The number of deaths is thought to have been 500 and widespread impunity prevails. Attacks against civilians and humanitarian organizations return of IS to Iraq following destabilization continues to be a concrete threat. According to involved in drug-trafficking and terrorism. The situation is deteriorating, with more than 100 in 2018, but massive military operations largely prohibit media and observers from entering are frequent; more than 640,000 persons are internally displaced. The situation is set to UN data, IS had between 20,000 and 30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq in 2018. human rights activists killed in 2019, mainly in former FARC strongholds. More than 260,000 Sinai, so more precise estimates are difficult to obtain. The neglected Bedouin population of deteriorate after the recent return of Bozizé and former Séléka-leader Michel Djotodia. have died overall while more than 7 million have been displaced. Sinai is negatively affected on both fronts. INTENSITY High/deteriorating INTENSITY High/deteriorating INTENSITY Low/deteriorating INTENSITY Medium/deteriorating

2. WEST SAHEL (BURKINA FASO, MALI, NIGER) 6. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO (DRC) 10. SUDAN 14. PAKISTAN BEGINNING 2018 BEGINNING 1998 (East), 2014 (Northeast), 2017 (Kasaï) BEGINNING 2003 (Darfur), 2011 (South Kordofan, Blue Nile) BEGINNING 2001 (Balochistan: 2005) KEY STAKEHOLDERS Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, former rebel groups, FDLR factions, ADF, Mai-Mai KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, pro-government militias, various rebel groups KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Taliban, various armed forces, various nationalist mili- Group to Support Islam and Muslims (GSIM/Al-Qaeda) and other Islamist groups militias, various ethnic militias and factions tias (Balochistan) EXTERNAL ACTORS G5 Sahel Forces (including Mauritania, Chad), MINUSMA, France EXTERNAL ACTORS Uganda, Rwanda, MONUSCO EXTERNAL ACTORS UNAMID (Darfur), South Sudan (South Kordofan, Blue Nile) EXTERNAL ACTORS US, Iran (Operation Barkhane) Eastern DRC has been in turmoil since dictator Mobutu Sese Seko was toppled by Laurent- Protest of local armed groups SLA and JEM led to civil war in 2003 when the government of Taliban fleeing the US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 eventually created the Pakistani In January 2020, the UN called terrorist violence in the West Sahel region unprecedented, Désiré Kabila in 1996, and several African states became involved in the conflict. Factions of then-President Omar al-Bashir armed Arab militias (Janjaweed) to fight alongside government Taliban Movement (TTP), which has been waging war against the state and civilians ever since. with the number of casualties in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger having risen to more than 4,000 non-demobilized groups are fighting for control of land and resources in Kivu, including former troops. 300,000 people died in the conflict; a hybrid AU-UN mission – UNAMID, established The TTP relies on the tribal belt – a region along the Afghan-Pakistani border – for its recruits in 2019. Islamist groups taking over the north of Mali in early 2012 have reorganized, built Rwandan génocidaires of the FDLR and soldiers of the former M23. In the northeast, groups in 2007 and scheduled to leave the region soon – has been unable to protect civilians. and looks to Al Qaeda for ideological inspiration. Many militants have been killed by military alliances and spread further south. Attacks on military camps like Inatès and Chinagodrar, like the Ugandan ADF and countless splinter groups are fighting the army, which is frequently Opposition groups have long fragmented and, despite toppling al-Bashir in 2019, conflict operations carried out by the Pakistan Armed Forces. The insurgency is mainly located in the which saw hundreds of Islamist militants fighting as a coordinated force, killed dozens of accused of human rights violations. Attacks on humanitarian workers trying to fight an Ebola continues. 100,000 new internally displaced persons were counted last year. The conflict in northeast of the country and in the so-called tribal areas that are partly beyond government soldiers while showcasing their new military capabilities. Attacks on civilian targets including epidemic are frequent. An unrelated conflict for power in the Kasaï regions escalated in 2016 South Kordofan and Blue Nile, regions bordering South Sudan, seems to be improving thanks control. Major anti-terror operations in recent years have seen the number of attacks falling churches and mosques, are a near-daily occurence. Protest against the French army – despite and led to intercommunal violence and the large-scale recruitment of children. Despite a to the willingness of the new government to negotiate with southern rebel forces. Humanitar- for the first time. In Balochistan, nationalist groups on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan-border its assistance in the states’ fight against Islamists – is rising. massive UN presence, the situation remains volatile, especially in the east. ian groups were granted access for the first time in 10 years. are demanding greater control of the poor province’s rich natural resources. INTENSITY High/deteriorating INTENSITY East and northeast high/deteriorating; Kasaï: medium/unchanging INTENSITY South Kordofan, Blue Nile – low/improving; Darfur – medium/unchanging INTENSITY Taliban – medium/improving; Balochistan – low/unchanging

Armed conflicts have become a constant fea- 15. INDIA ture of political reality in the world today: For BY MARC ENGELHARDT years, the number has remained between 30 13 BEGINNING 1967 and 35 (33 at the end of 2018, according to the KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, CPI-M (Naxalites) 14 annual Alert! report compiled by the Autono- 9 The armed Marxist group CPI-M, called Naxalites after the town of Naxalbari, the site of a mous University of Barcelona), with almost 15 peasant revolt in 1967, has been waging a low-level insurgency since its inception that same 16 year. The conflicts ultimately date back to the Indian government’s failure to enact the fifth and half of the conflicts taking place in Africa. They 10 sixth schedules of the constitution of India, which had stipulated certain tribal rights for the have been raging for years if not decades, autonomous exploitation of local natural resources. Related violence has ebbed and flowed 2 17 and analysis shows that most of them have over the 50 years of the conflict. According to the South Asian Terrorist Portal (SATP), more 3 18 than 300 people were killed in 2019 in several Indian states, mostly in the east and northeast little chance of being resolved any time soon. of India. Violence had been escalating after peace negotiations failed in 2004. It decreased 11 12 The causes of the conflicts vary, but can be 5 again in 2011, but never stopped. 4 broadly sorted into four categories: oppo- 1 INTENSITY Low/unchanging sition to domestic or international policies 6 of respective governments; opposition to the political, economic, social or ideological 7 system of a state; disputes over identity- 16. MYANMAR related demands and self-government; and BEGINNING 1948 struggles over the control of resources and 8 territory. In most cases, government forces KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, various armed groups face non-state actors, with a variety of exter- Since independence in 1948, dozens of armed ethnic militias have fought the government of Myanmar, demanding recognition of their ethnic and cultural rights and – some – independence. nal parties involved either directly or indi- Under military dictatorship since 1962, violence escalated and the situation has improved only rectly through proxy forces. We feature here since 2011, when a nominally civilian government was installed and cease-fire agreements 19 of the conflicts that are rarely reported, were agreed to by most groups. The Rohingya crisis of 2017 has led to another escalation. FORGOTTEN AND While the situation inside Myanmar is now calm after 750,000 Rohingya fled government-led hidden from view and at risk of being for- pogroms to neighboring Bangladesh, a return could well lead to new fighting, including with gotten. They nonetheless contribute to the the armed group ARSA currently based there. fear, displacement, deprivation and, in many HIDDEN CONFLICTS INTENSITY Low/unchanging cases, deaths of millions all across the globe.

3. CHAD BASIN (PARTS OF CAMEROON, NIGER AND NIGERIA) 7. BURUNDI 11. ETHIOPIA 17. THAILAND (SOUTH) BEGINNING 2011 BEGINNING 2015 BEGINNING 2019 BEGINNING 2004 KEY STAKEHOLDERS Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Chad, Islamic State West Africa Province KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, factions of armed groups KEY STAKEHOLDERS Separatist militias (Oromo, Amhara, Tigray) KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, armed separatist groups (ISWAP), Boko Haram (Shekau faction) EXTERNAL ACTORS Rwanda, DRC Ethiopia has opened up politically since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018. A The conflict in southern Thailand dates back to more than 100 years ago when the Sultan- EXTERNAL ACTORS MNJTF regional forces (including Benin), US promoter of peace and reconciliation, Abiy speaks fluent Afaan Oromo, Amharic and Tigrinya ate of Pattani was divided between today’s Thailand and the colonial power of the United The fraudulent election of autocratic president and former warlord Pierre Nkurunziza and – as well as English. While Abiy formally ended the war with Eritrea, freed political prisoners Kingdom, which is now Malaysia. The fight for cultural identity continued throughout the 20th In 2016, the Islamic sect Boko Haram, nurtured by politicians in the first decade of this century a failed coup d’état led by Major General Godefroid Niyombare in 2015 exacerbated latent and allowed former separatist groups back into the country – earning him the Nobel Peace century and escalated in 2004 after a brutal counterinsurgency strategy by the government. and occupying large swaths of northern Nigeria over the last 10 years, split into two major fac- political violence and fostered the emergence of new armed groups. Following the attempted Prize in 2019 – tensions between ethnic majority and minority populations have escalated in In 2005, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra claimed a broad range of emergency powers to tions allying with the Islamic State and Al Qaeda respectively. Raids, kidnappings and suicide overthrow, Nkurunziza purged his government and arrested several figures, yet protests various parts of the multi-ethnic country. Some have blamed ethnic violence on Abiy’s lifting quell the violence in the south, but his controversial efforts were in vain, as the insurgency attacks in the north of Nigeria have continued since, with more than 1,600 victims in 2018 continued. 1,200 people died and over 430,000 left the country. The situation has somewhat of bans on groups like the Oromo Liberation Front. Oromo, Amhara and Tigray nationalists, only escalated. According to Deep South Watch, more than 7,000 people have since died alone. Boko Haram fighters are also terrorizing southern Niger, northern Cameroon and parts stabilized but is set to worsen with elections scheduled for 2020. Violence by armed groups among others, have attacked members of other ethnic groups, especially in the border regions in southern Thailand, one of only four Muslim majority provinces in predominantly Buddhist of Chad. At the end of 2019, the Islamic State faction of the former Boko Haram killed some remaining from the civil war is a frequent occurrence in regions bordering the DRC and Rwanda. of their territories, and displaced 1.4 million Ethiopians in 2018 alone. Thailand. The violence has recently receded, but is still present, while the movement is said 50 members of island communities on Lake Chad where a caliphate has been established. to demonstrate high levels of coordination throughout its attacks. INTENSITY Low/unchanging INTENSITY Medium/unchanging INTENSITY High/deteriorating INTENSITY Low/improving

4. CAMEROON (ANGLOPHONE/FRANCOPHONE REGION) 8. MOZAMBIQUE 12. SOMALIA 18. PHILIPPINES BEGINNING 2018 BEGINNING 2017 BEGINNING 2004 (following conflict since 1991) BEGINNING 1991 KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, self-proclaimed Government of Ambazonia, armed KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Ansar Al-Sunna, Islamic State (IS) KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Al-Shabaab, clan militias, various Islamist militias KEY STAKEHOLDERS Government, Abu Sayyaf, BIFF, Islamic State of Lanao, groups and militias various Islamist militias EXTERNAL ACTORS Russian Private Security Company Wagner Group EXTERNAL ACTORS AMISOM, US, Turkey, EU NAVFOR What started as protests among minority English-speaking Cameroonians against margin- Militias on the majority-Muslim archipelago of Mindanao have been fighting Manila for the Islamist groups are fighting for control and the establishment of a caliphate in Cabo Delgado Islamist militia Al-Shabaab, active since 2004, continues to control large parts of the coun- alization by the Francophone government in 2016 escalated when security forces attacked independence of the Moro people since 1991. BIFF has been the most active group in the Province in the north of Mozambique. Natural gas discoveries off the coast have contributed try. Government forces are unable to prevent frequent bombings like the one in December demonstrators and arrested a main opposition figure. This led to rising support for a seces- struggle, suffering hundreds of casualties. Abu Sayyaf, an Islamist group, has also been to the recent escalation. The traditionally neglected region has been hard hit by cyclones 2019 that took 85 lives. Direct elections due in 2020 are again in jeopardy. Islamist terror is sionist movement seeking independence for Ambazonia and then a full-fledged civil war fighting for a caliphate and laid siege to the city of Marawi in 2017, with 1,100 dead and over such as Kenneth in early 2019, which further worsened living conditions for the population. exacerbated by shifting alliances of warlords and clan militias that have been fighting since that claimed an estimated 1,500 lives. The situation has calmed recently but tensions remain. 600,000 displaced. IS-affiliated militias have launched attacks as well. A counterinsurgency Fatalities since fighting began in 2017 are estimated to be in the hundreds. the toppling of Siad Barre in 1991. At least 300,000 people have since died. The Major National Dialogue that was carried out from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, 2019, produced a by the Duterte government has been criticized for its disregard of human rights. number of resolutions yet excluded the opposition. High/deteriorating High/deteriorating INTENSITY INTENSITY INTENSITY Medium/deteriorating INTENSITY Medium/unchanging 24 The Security Times – Challenges February 2020

strategists fail to consider when BY BARTHOLOMÄUS GRILL discussing potential military inter- ventions. And this is also where the n a map distributed by the real dilemma lies.

UN information service PICTURE ALLIANCE/ZUMA PRESS The military response in the Oto humanitarian workers Sahel is not only part of the solu- in the Nigerian state of Borno, each tion to the crisis, “it is part of the major traffic route is highlighted in problem,” noted the Norwegian a specific color. For example, green Refugee Council, making reference means workers can travel freely to the 80,000 internally displaced and yellow means they should persons forced to flee due to mili- travel only with an armed escort. tary operations. Aid organizations Most of the streets are marked in lament the fact that, in 2019, the red, however, which means that number of people suffering from if workers were to travel these food shortages in the central Sahel routes, they should expect fatal was three times that of the previ- attacks at any time. ous year. Borno is a particularly stark One might expect the challenge example of the miserable security of combating terrorism to be one situation in a region of Africa that of the most urgent tasks assumed has been haunted by Islamist ter- by the African Union (AU). Yet rorist militias for years. The entire this continental union of nations Sahel – a semi-arid land belt that contributes the least of all to such stretches across the continent efforts. In Addis Ababa, where the from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red organization is headquartered, Sea – is now affected. It is home to there has been a great deal of talk one of the poorest and most dan- for years about an African security gerous zones on the planet. French architecture and a rapid reaction political scientist Serge Michailof force; unfortunately, there is also recently coined the term “Africani- Emmanuel Macron presides over the tribute to the 13 soldiers who died for France in Mali, at the Hotel National des Invalides in Paris on Dec. 2, 2019. a considerable lack of institutional stan” to describe the area, warn- capacity, financial resources and ing that militant Islamism has the often political will. potential to spread and destabilize Moreover, when the AU actually large parts of West Africa. makes a tangible attempt to avert a And it’s not just the Sahel that’s serious conflict by means of clever suffering from excessive violence. Slouching toward proposals, it is often skipped over Today, neighboring countries, and ignored. For example, in 2011, such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, when the AU sought to prevent an are also affected. In the Horn of escalation of the civil war in Libya Africa, the Somali al-Shabaab mili- Africanistan through diplomatic means, it was tias are exporting terror to Ethio- ultimately forced to stand by and pia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. watch as NATO countries – under Jihadists recently started carrying The EU’s preoccupation with its own security interests in the Sahel the leadership of France and the out their nefarious activities in is driving the local population into the arms of IS US – proceeded to bomb the coun- northern Mozambique as well. try without further ado. Major terrorist organizations like These developments brought Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb collapse under the weight of exces- However, the question as to Militant Islamism is gaining arms and drug-trafficking and about the subsequent crisis in are networked across the conti- sive violence. In 2013, a French whether the problem can even be ground, particularly in neglected demanding ransoms for kidnap- Mali, as thousands of heavily nent; some are even cooperating intervention force was able to solved by military means is being regions where the state and its pings. There is yet another key armed Touareg mercenaries who with the Islamic State (IS). Should drive out a large number of the utterly neglected. Instead of ana- institutions have clearly failed on source of income for these holy had previously served the dicta- these organizations expand their jihadists and insurgents operating lyzing the structural causes of the a massive, nationwide scale. Those warriors: their smuggling services tor Muammar Gaddafi fled back “crusades,” the consequences in the northern half of the coun- misery more thoroughly, stake- countries that find themselves in for migrants and refugees. Many into their homeland, conquered would be devastating, and include try. Since then, roughly 15,000 UN holders are contenting themselves a state of persistent crisis, such as young and unemployed men join the north of the country together even larger numbers of innocent peacekeepers have been trying to with finely worded commonplaces, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger these militias voluntarily, as they with Islamist militias and founded victims, further anarchy and hard- secure the fragile peace. Operation such as “there is no development and Somalia, have few prospects offer not only an income and food, the Islamic Republic of Azawad. ship, and more refugees, who MINUSMA is considered the UN’s without security and there is no for development, their populations but also power, an alternative During its short existence, this would increase migration pres- most dangerous mission underway. security without development.” are poor and their battles over world view and concrete potential republic was a strategic retreat for sure on Europe. In short, growing Germany is currently helping While there are some accompany- scarce resources are exacerbated for action. terrorist militias from the region, terrorism in Africa has long since build a powerful Malian army in ing initiatives in the civilian sector by ethnic strife, enormous popu- The fight against these terrorist including Boko Haram. become a geopolitical challenge of the context of an EU training mis- as well as some projects designed lation growth and the effects of groups is made even more difficult The West has only itself to blame top priority. sion there. Five Sahel states have to strengthen education, health climate change. by the fact that they operate in a for this debacle. And, unfortu- The relentless rise of Boko come together to form the “G5 system of extensive networks that nately, it has not yet learned any Haram – a gang of murderers that Sahel” military alliance, designed benefits criminal gangs, corrupt tangible lessons from it. In this emerged in 2009 from an Islamist to stem the further rise of Islamists politicians, religious leaders and case, too, South Africa’s Institute sect in Nigeria – shows just how in the region. The US expanded The West has only itself local tyrants. In addition, rich for- for Security Studies issued a devas- serious the situation is. Within its bases in West Africa after 9/11, eign Salafists provide clandestine tating balance sheet with regard to only a few years, a group of around and the US Africa Command has to blame for this debacle. financial aid, and there has been Washington’s military operations: 20,000 fighters conquered a ter- coordinated operations there since no shortage of weapons in West “Without fail, US interventions in ritory the size of Portugal in the 2008. “Find, fix and finish terror- And, unfortunately, it has Africa since Libya’s collapse. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and northeast region of the country. ists” is the unofficial marching In general, these holy warriors Somalia have exacerbated local sit- Once there, they founded a caliph- order of the mission. not yet learned any tangible are despised by the population uations and facilitated the spread ate and expanded their area of The region south of the Sahara for a number of reasons: they kill of violent Islamist extremism.” operations to the border regions has become a virtual playground lessons from it innocent people, kidnap and rape When French soldiers defeated of the neighboring countries of for intervention forces. Unfortu- women and obliterate entire vil- the jihadists in northern Mali, they Cameroon, Chad and Niger. nately, however, their efforts have care and state institutions, armed These factors form an ideal lages and cities in order to estab- were celebrated as liberators by the The South Africa-based Insti- had little impact to date. Military intervention in the region is first breeding ground for terrorist lish their theocratic reign of terror. local population. Today, for many tute for Security Studies has iden- experts like Hans-Georg Ehrhart and foremost serving the security movements. In this context, Islam Today, however, there are also of Mali’s citizens, these soldiers are tified Boko Haram as one of the have gone so far as to speak of a interests of the intervening coun- is merely instrumentalized as a areas where they are respected. For an occupying force. Even though “deadliest terrorist groups in the “chimera.” Only one thing is cer- tries. And only after those interests “liberation theology” that blames example, in the northern districts several battles have been won, the world.” The UN also made a truly tain at this point: the murderous have been served is there time to Western influences – including of Borno, a splinter group of Boko mood has shifted, mostly because devastating assessment after the attacks have not abated and, in focus on the well-being of Africa. democracy, free elections, the rule Haram called Islamic State West the war on terror has continued. group’s 10 years of jihad, noting some areas, are even increasing. For example, the EU’s priority is of law, co-ed schools and vaccina- Africa Province has assumed some And it’s now true that if European that it was responsible for nearly As recently as last fall, more than not merely to fight terrorism and tion campaigns – for all evils. Still, of the functions of a state. It con- and African allies fail to find alter- 20,000 deaths, including roughly 100 Malian soldiers were killed in organized crime; it also wants to these same religious fanatics are trols traffic routes, levies customs native strategies, the Sahel could, 1.8 million internally displaced the region. reduce illegal migration. The EU quick to make use of technology and taxes, regulates the trade of in the upcoming years, become an persons, 1,400 destroyed schools, France, too, has lost a total of 38 is engaging in a type of advanced made in the West, including off- fish and agricultural products, sup- “Africanistan.” 2,295 murdered teachers as well as soldiers as part of its Operation border-security system and thereby road vehicles, rapid-fire weapons, ports the construction of farms, famines, epidemics, misery and an Barkhane. Paris is now calling on financing – by means of its migra- rockets, drones, GPS, the internet drills wells and builds clinics and ever-present fear. its European partners to assist tion partnerships – questionable and mobile phones. public toilets. BARTHOLOMÄUS GRILL The second major theater of by sending more special troops allies such as Chad, where the dic- At the same time, the jihad- In other words, these militants was an Africa correspondent terror is Mali, where a corrupt to the Sahel, with Berlin already tatorial regime does more to aggra- ists have established a lucrative are pursuing a type of development for Die Zeit and Der Spiegel power elite “governs” a weak state announcing its intention to pro- vate problems than to overcome war economy, thereby making a policy designed to win people over. until 2019. that is constantly threatening to vide support. them. living from looting, robbing banks, This is precisely what military

More importantly, the recently BY MEHMET YEGIN elected mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and very time I check my news Talking Turkey Mansur Yavaş, both of whom are feed alerts set for “Turkey members of the opposition, are Eand NATO,” I see analyses emerging as possible presidential concluding that efforts to improve The story of Ankara’s relationship with NATO is full of misconceptions hopefuls. the relationship are a lost cause. Yet the argument that Turkey is Some observers claim that moving away from the West, even if Turkey will withdraw from Erdoğan leaves office, is overblown. NATO and enter an alliance Many analysts view Turkey’s dependence on Russia. Its “fren- terranean have not evolved into to rally the Turkish public and In Turkey, public opinion largely with Russia. Others argue that coordination with Russia and emy” relationship with Iran military confrontation between minimize criticism of a failing follows the opinions of political the country’s authoritarian Iran in Syria as a dangerous move sometimes involves moves that Turkey and Greece, since NATO economy. leaders, whoever they are. It is turn will continue, with Recep in the Mediterranean. Many put it at odds with NATO allies. prevents an intra-alliance military But this strategy may have highly likely that any successor will Tayyip Erdoğan possibly staying also view Turkish involvement Nevertheless, NATO member- confrontation. run its course, as Erdoğan can seek normalization in Turkey’s for- in power for the next decade or in Libya as taking a step closer ship is the core component of Rather than a withdrawal from no longer rely on the ballot box. eign policy and set its sights once even longer. Still others under- toward separating from NATO. Ankara’s balanced relationships NATO, the most likely scenario is Especially since his party lost the again toward the West. score the fact that Turkish public Yet these analysts forget that with Moscow and Tehran. Being a the intensification of intra-Alli- local elections in Istanbul. Forc- opinion about its trans-Atlantic the ability to make such strate- member of the trans-Atlantic alli- ance negotiations, in which allies ing a recount only delivered a MEHMET YEGIN allies is alarmingly negative. gic moves is only possible with ance is what differentiates Turkey should avoid the transactional humiliating second defeat. is a visiting fellow in the Taken together, the claims made a security architecture based on from other countries being bul- approach that gives a free pass to The failure of Erdoğan’s hand- Americas Division at by these experts seem convincing. NATO membership. lied by Russia. Its NATO mem- authoritarianism. selected candidates in three the German Institute for Nonetheless, close scrutiny indi- It is true that the purchase of bership encourages Tehran to Whether it’s the purchase of major cities to win local elections International and Security Affairs (SWP) and an assistant cates that the first is superficial, the S-400s from Russia and the forg- avoid confrontation and escala- Russian missiles, military incur- has fueled the opposition and professor at Istinye University, second highly fragile and the third ing of long-term energy deals tion in the Middle East. More- sions in Syria or engagement in helped establish two new politi- Istanbul. overrated. indicate an increase in Turkey’s over, Ankara’s moves in the Medi- Libya – each move is intended cal parties. February 2020 No man’s land Kurdish dreams and nightmares amid the long night of great-power games

Without a doubt, the Kurd- promised not to participate in BY ANDREA BÖHM ish Autonomous Region (KAR) any attacks by the opposition remains the most stable area against al-Assad’s army. EVERY SECOND fter a stunning series in Iraq. Its civil society and Syrian Kurds now live under of events...” – this is the administration can muster great the tight control of the Kurdish Atypical opening line these efforts in times of acute crisis, Democratic Union Party (PYD), COUNTS. days for an analysis of develop- such as during the war against an offshoot of the leftist Turkish ments in the Middle East. Kurd- the Islamic State (IS). But the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK). ish affairs are no exception. Only KAR still struggles with estab- Ideologically, both are despised EFFECTIVELY a short while ago, the Kurds lishing an operational framework by most of the political establish- were considered the big winners for development. The economy ment in Iraqi Kurdistan. During of a decade of upheaval in the is at a standstill, youth unem- the war against IS, they became region, having achieved de facto ployment is soaring and public distrustful allies. But it was the COUNTERING autonomy in northern Syria and employees often work without People’s Protection Units (YPG) inched closer to independence pay for months or even years. – the PYD’s military wing – who in northern Iraq. But as of 2020, This is partly due to a conflict proved the most effective ground DRONES. the military force and geopoliti- with the central government in force against the jihadist move- cal machinations of much larger Baghdad about oil revenues and ment, not the somewhat rusty powers have shattered both of budget allocation, but the prob- Peshmerga fighters in Iraqi Commercial drones present a potential danger to air traffic, these gains. lem is also rooted in the endemic Kurdistan. critical infrastructures, political gatherings and sporting For most Kurds, history just corruption, nepotism and antag- When in 2014 the US chose events. R&S®ARDRONIS provides full spectrum awareness seems to repeat itself. Their onism that plague the two domi- the YPG as a partner for military and alerts security personnel early on, even before drones dreams and several short-lived nant political parties. operations against the IS in Syria, take off. It georeferences the drone pilot and can terminate attempts to carve out a territory Both the Kurdistan Democratic YPG leaders mistook this for a the pilot’s control of the drone. R&S®ARDRONIS stops of their own have been dashed Party (KDP) and the Patriotic long-term guarantee of US pro- drone threats, either as a standalone unit or integrated in time after time – by the infamous Union of Kurdistan (PUK) are tection for their own territorial Sykes-Picot Line drawn in 1916 run like fiefdoms by powerful project: three self-administered larger security concepts. and the treaties following World families. Both use large parts of but geographically separate War I as well as today’s deals the Kurdish armed forces, the cantons in Syria’s north unified between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Peshmerga, as their private mili- under the name “Rojava.” It was Find your optimal solution: and Vladimir Putin and the erratic tias and have repeatedly clashed a tempting but strategically reck- www.rohde-schwarz.com/ad/countering-drones foreign policy of Donald Trump. militarily. less undertaking. So, for the time being, the Kurds The Kurdish Autonomous Over the last few years, Rojava will remain the world’s largest Region has justified complaints has been a relatively safe haven ethnic group without a coun- about the way it is being treated within war-torn Syria. It is also a try, comprising about 35 million by Baghdad. But the referendum cause célèbre among parts of the people, the vast majority of whom for independence in Septem- European left, which generously are dispersed over four nation ber 2017 was primarily a power overlooks the PYD’s authori- states – Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. gamble by then-President Mas- tarianism. But to neighboring Turkey, the existence of Kurdish self-administered zones run by a PKK-affiliate along the Syrian- SHUTTERSTOCK Turkish border has been a red rag and a source of fury directed at its NATO partner, the US. So, once the IS was on the run in Syria, Washington began to seek reconciliation with Ankara – the Donald Trump way. In 2018, the White House and Pentagon looked the other way when the Turkish army ended Kurdish self-rule in Afrin, the western-most of Rojava’s three cantons. In October 2019, after Trump’s impulsive announce- ment that US troops would be withdrawn from Syria, the Turk- ish army invaded parts of east- ern Rojava. Erdoğan then went to the one big power that really counts in Syria – Russia – to get the green light for a “safety zone” of 120 kilometers along the Syrian side of the border. It Each of these states has repeat- soud Barzani. The Barzani family is here that he wants to relocate edly initiated brutal waves of rules the KDP and the western Syrians that have fled to Turkey repression. And in each case, part of the autonomous region. – thereby not only lowering Kurds have resorted to armed In his attempt to drown public the number of refugees in his resistance and guerilla warfare. anger about corruption amid a own country, but also creating Given this history, it is remark- wave of independence euphoria, a buffer zone of Sunni Arabs in able that the Kurds have never Barzani completely miscalcu- the Kurdish region. figured prominently in larger lated the international reaction When the PYD begged the visions and strategies to stabilize to the prospects of an indepen- regime in Damascus to help the Middle East. But clearly, there dent Kurdistan – and to a dis- against the Turkish incursion, will be no peace and no stability integrating Iraq. His long-time Assad was only too happy to without a solution for the Kurds. ally in Ankara was as adamantly oblige. His forces are now back There is a problem, however. opposed as were the EU, the in the north. The Kurds are not united as a US and neighboring Iran. The For now, Putin has proven single national identity. Not only Iraqi army and Iraqi Shia militias surprisingly adept at keeping a do the Kurds have a long his- buried Barzani’s dream of inde- lid on this combustible set of tory of suffering at the hands of pendence with a quick incur- different interests, drawing red others, they have also suffered sion. The PUK, never fond of the lines for Erdoğan and Assad from infighting and political referendum, quickly cut its own while feeding the Kurds some ineptitude. Whenever Syrian or deals with Baghdad and Tehran. hope of political survival. Other Iraqi dictators, the Turkish army The KAR’s economy is still a global actors are barely to be or the Iranian regime set out to mess. The political mood in the seen. Trump has performed a suppress a Kurdish struggle for streets of Erbil, Dohuk or Sulay- small turnaround and left sev- independence or autonomy, they maniyah is one of apathy as their eral hundred US soldiers in could always find Kurdish col- inhabitants brace themselves for Syria, although no one knows laborators. And even without an another influx of refugees from for how long. The EU still seems external enemy, Kurdish factions Syria. preoccupied with keeping out have shown a disturbing propen- The KAR is perhaps the latest new refugees, thereby exposing sity to weaken their own cause. case of another dream of Kurd- itself to Turkish blackmailing. Northern Iraq and northern Syria ish self-rule falling apart, but Erdoğan has already threatened are currently two cases in point. likely with much more dramatic to open the route for Syrians in For almost 30 years, the Iraqi consequences. Just like their Turkey into the EU, should the Kurds have had an opportunity Iraqi kin under Saddam Hussein, EU not support his “safe zone” to develop a more diversified the Kurds in Syria have suffered on Syrian territory. economy and modernized state greatly under the Baath regime From a Kurdish perspective, the structures. A no-fly zone estab- in Damascus. However, when in light at the tunnel’s end – if there is lished by Western powers in 1991 2011 the popular uprising began an end – is barely flickering. protected them from Saddam against Bashar al-Assad, they did Hussein’s terror. After Saddam’s not close ranks with the Syrian fall in 2003, they enjoyed close opposition, but instead cut a ties to the United States, growing deal with the regime. Damas- ANDREA BÖHM is a journalist. She is stationed revenue from oil fields and a good cus withdrew its security forces in Beirut where she covers the relationship with neighboring from the Kurdish north. The Middle East for the German Turkey. But they never managed Kurds thus gained control over weekly Die Zeit. to leverage their strength. large parts of the north and

MM-110238_ARDRONIS_SecTimes_143x503_e.indd 1 04.02.2020 12:00:57 26 The Security Times – Challenges February 2020

Return fees may apply How to deal with Western IS fighters returning from Syria and Iraq

A more realistic suggestion BY PETER R. NEUMANN would likely be to try returnees in local courts. And indeed, on hen US President the Iraqi side, dozens of foreign- Donald Trump ers from countries like Germany, Wdeclared the defeat of France and Turkey have been con- Islamic State (IS), he specifically victed for supporting IS. However, referred to the group’s territory in many of them have been given Syria and Iraq – nearly all of which harsh sentences, including – in had been taken back by December some cases – the death penalty. 2018. What he did not mention This has created dilemmas for were the thousands of IS support- European governments that ers from all over the world who have been accused of allowing had been captured in the process. their own nationals to be treated Yet, for many governments, espe- according to standards incompat- cially in Western Europe, these ible with human rights and the individuals are the group’s most rule of law. challenging legacy. Resolving this Even more problematic is the issue will have major impact on situation in Syria. Kurdish author- the terrorist threat for years to ities are not a recognized state come. and have no interest in holding on Between 2013 and 2016, more to foreign jihadists. Trying them than 40,000 jihadists traveled in Syrian courts, on the other to Syria and Iraq, thereby mark- hand, is even less acceptable from

ing the greatest mobilization of BBC a human rights perspective. This foreign jihadists ever. These indi- Travel ban: Shamima Begum left London in 2015 to join the Islamic State in Syria. The UK stripped her of her citizenship. is why many Western govern- viduals came from nearly 100 ments have concluded that local countries. The largest contin- quickly fell apart. By the time of While the differences between In reality, however, thousands of fighter who had appeared in many IS trials are not practical for deal- gent – about 60 percent of the the Caliphate’s official defeat, the studies are striking, they show them – including large numbers of videos, it effectively sought to shift ing with the majority of potential total number – originated from nearly a third of the jihadist that the vast majority of returnees women and children – survived, the problem to Fiji, where Prakash’s returnees. the Middle East and North Africa, “travelers” had already returned do not become terrorists. Yet there and are now stuck in Iraqi prisons father came from but Prakash him- The only realistic – and respon- especially Saudi Arabia and Tuni- to their home countries, while remains a substantial risk, and the or camps in the Kurdish-controlled self had never lived. At the time, sible – solution, therefore, is the sia. Around 20 percent were from another third was dead. Of the reason is not just the exception- areas of Syria. What should be many commentators described Aus- controlled repatriation of for- countries of the former Soviet remaining third, some managed to ally large number of people who done with them? tralia’s efforts as irresponsible. eign nationals to the countries Union, above all Russia, Uzbeki- flee to Turkey, but the vast major- went to Syria and Iraq in recent The seemingly easiest way of Another solution would be to from which they came. Many stan and Kazakhstan. More than ity ended up in Kurdish camps years, but also how the conflicts resolving the problem is to strip create an international tribunal European governments have 5,000 individuals – around 12 and Iraqi prisons. Only a few hun- have changed them. individuals of their citizenship. in the spirit of The Hague. This long tried to avoid this reality. percent – came from Western dred are still believed to be free The experience of war, Hegg- Many Western governments have idea has been put forward by the Unlike the United States and Europe, including not just France, and fighting for IS. hammer points out, has given them resorted to this measure, even in government of Belgium, which Kazakhstan, for example, which Germany and the UK, but also For many governments, the key military know-how, desensitized cases where potential returnees believes that smaller countries do have repatriated most of their smaller countries such as Austria, question has been how danger- them emotionally and granted had no other citizenship, and thus not have the capacity to deal with nationals, they have failed to Belgium, Denmark and Sweden. ous those returnees and potential them access to new and interna- doing so made them stateless. In – or even understand – the IS phe- adapt their laws to make convic- A further 500 people were from returnees are. Two studies have tional networks, which enables the case of Shamima Begum, for nomenon in its totality. They have tions of IS supporters easier, to other Western countries, such as examined the phenomenon from them to mount larger and more example, a 20-year-old British also argued that the crimes com- beef up prison capacity and to Australia, Canada and the United a historical perspective. sophisticated attacks. He shows woman who traveled to Syria when mitted by IS were of such signifi- invest in prevention and reha- States. The Norwegian researcher that terror plans made with the she was 15, the government’s deci- cance that they should be regarded bilitation programs, especially for In contrast to previous waves Thomas Hegghammer looked at help of returnees are statistically sion to strip her of her citizenship as crimes against humanity and be women and children. The extent of foreign fighters, the Caliph- nearly 1,000 Western jihadists one-and-a-half times more likely was justified by citing that she was tried by an international court. to which they are able to catch ate also attracted sizable num- who had fought in the conflicts to be carried out than plans made entitled to a Bangladeshi passport, Many countries have supported up will determine how much of a bers of women and entire fami- in Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan and without them and twice as likely to although she had never asked for the logic behind this idea, but little threat the returnees will pose in lies. According to various esti- Pakistan in the 1990s and 2000s lead to fatalities. Simply put, those one, and had never – in fact – been action has been taken to put it into years to come. mates, more than 20 percent and found that only one in nine returnees who decide to become to the country. practice. It remains unclear where of the total number consisted were charged or sentenced for terrorists are better – that is, more The more fundamental issue is the tribunal would be located, of women and girls who “emi- terrorist crimes after returning to deadly – terrorists. that stripping citizenships merely what its mandate would be and grated” to the Caliphate in order their countries. It is precisely for this reason passes the problem on to other where the people convicted under PETER R. NEUMANN is professor of security studies to become teachers, nurses, doc- Jytte Klausen of Brandeis Uni- that the debate over returnees has countries – typically ones with its jurisdiction would be impris- and founding director of the tors, propagandists or to give versity conducted a similar study become so contentious. Although which the returnee has less of a oned. Given the pressing nature International Centre for the birth to the next generation of that yielded a significantly higher the problem has been on authorities’ relationship and which are less of the situation in the Kurdish Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), fighters. result. Of the nearly 900 foreign radars for years, many governments well-equipped to deal with terror- camps, most experts believe that King’s College London. His most recent book is Bluster: Yet, the “jihadist international” fighters in her sample, approxi- have hoped that the returnees would ists. When Australia attempted there would not be enough time Donald Trump's War on Terror that had formed in Syria and Iraq mately one in four engaged in ter- be killed or seek martyrdom in the to remove the citizenship of Neil to get an international tribunal up (Oxford University Press, 2020). during the middle of the decade rorism after going back. final battle for the Caliphate. Prakash, a well-known foreign and running. IS Anonymous A Berlin-based initiative is proving that former IS members can be reintegrated into society

piness in Germany. Only a couple After coming home, some of the would be very skeptical if a former usually able to generate an inner very seriously. This is exactly why BY FRANK BACHNER of years earlier, however, these men were simply released, as there extremist said that he regretted distance to their past very quickly. things tend ultimately to work out. same men – each of whom has a was no warrant for their arrest. everything he did after just three “A lot of them regret having taken “Schools are willing to get involved homas Mücke received German passport – were wearing Many of those who had returned in days of talking,” says Mücke. It part in something so terrible,” says in cases such as these because they the photos via WhatsApp. black uniforms with black scarves the previous months landed almost usually takes three or four months Mücke. “Many say they simply know we monitor and take care TThere’s one of a groom over their faces. immediately in pre-trial detention. “until we see a development.” In turned a blind eye for a long time.” of each ex-IS member with great standing next to his bride, beam- Today, the men are back in Ger- The minimum charge they faced that period of time, Mücke has According to Mücke, several of attention,” says Mücke. In addition, ing with joy and laughter. Another many, and Mücke and his col- was “membership in a terrorist noticed, the person’s thoughts these men set off to join IS after if there are any problems, students, is of a young man so unabashedly leagues are there to ensure their organization.” become increasingly preoccupied experiencing a brief social or per- parents and teachers can contact proud of the work uniform he’s re-integration into society. Mücke In the five years since 2015, with questions of right and wrong. sonal crisis, not because they were VPN at any time. wearing that he looks as if he’s is managing director of Violence Mücke’s team has provided guid- “It’s essential that the person con- fanatical Muslims. In the case of older returnees, the being featured in an ad poster Prevention Network (VPN), an ance to 40 former IS members cerned recognizes that it’s up to Still, regret alone is not enough. goal is to have them pursue voca- for his employer. Mücke, a social organization that works with imprisoned in Germany. Each him to take responsibility for his When these men are released from tional training or get an actual job. worker with a degree in education, former members of extremist offender is interviewed and sub- actions,” says Mücke. custody, they remain under the VPN representatives accompany is always delighted to look at these groups. In fact, VPN is at the core jected to a threat analysis. In other Mücke and his colleagues also ask constant watch of the police force, the men to the job center and help and other photos. They show a of a network tackling a key ques- words, representatives of the for help from the families of the the Verfassungsschutz, probation with job applications. The extrem- great deal of harmony and joie de tion and challenge: How can we police force, the Verfassungsschutz returnees. Indeed, fathers, moth- officers and VPN. “We all follow ist past of these new employees vivre. And, above all, they are proof prevent German citizens who were (Federal Office for the Protection ers and siblings can influence the very closely how each individual is always remains a secret. The boss is that his work has been successful. once active as holy warriors for of the Constitution), the justice men and encourage them to talk developing,” says Mücke. told nothing about it. This is one of But Mücke doesn’t provide any IS – and who have now returned system and VPN meet together to VPN. This is the next phase in moni- the only ways for reintegration into details on the individuals in the to Germany – from returning to a and assess the threat posed by each Things have worked well so far. toring and caring for these former society to succeed as best it can. photos – no names, anyway. He life of radical thought and action? former IS member. And Mücke has also been lucky. IS fighters. It is essential that the And Mücke has several success won’t even reveal exactly what The German government has an As soon as any former IS warrior The worst criminals – the mur- men are not allowed to drift back stories to tell. He knows many kind of work uniform the young obligation under international law returns to Germany and is locked derers and the torturers, that is into the extremist scene. What people who now live solid, middle- man is wearing. Mücke doesn’t to take back its citizens. However, in prison, it won’t be long before – are not yet in German custody. they need most at this point is a class lives. “Nobody would guess want any information about the the government naturally does not they find a VPN employee stand- They have not yet been brought social and personal network as well they used to be members of IS.” men to be known, at least not want to face a permanent threat ing at their cell door. “We offer an back from Syria and Iraq. In Janu- as a support system. As many left These are the men who call VPN publicly. One thing is for certain, from these citizens at home. opportunity to talk,” says Mücke. ary, official statistics showed that school early, this is the perfect time staff to chat and send pictures of though; the young man is definitely Many former IS fighters came “The earlier the better.” And his there were still 124 individuals to go back and complete a degree. their weddings and vacations. The not wearing a police uniform. How back willingly. The first group approach has been successful. “Out with a German passport living in But what kind of educational contact never really ends. do we know? Because the police started returning to Germany in of all of the people we’ve visited in IS camps – sometimes under cata- institution would accept former force in Germany doesn’t accept 2014, disillusioned by their expe- prison, not one of them refused strophic conditions. extremists as students? “We work anyone who was previously a riences with the militant group. our help.” Those former IS members cur- very hard to get teachers, students FRANK BACHNER member of the Islamic State (IS). Others were retrieved from the This first meeting marks the rently in prison in Germany are and parents on board,” says Mücke, is a metro editor at the Berlin The photos sent to Mücke show camps where they’d been held and beginning of a process that not considered to be brutal or whose many years of experience daily Der Tagesspiegel. men celebrating moments of hap- brought back to Germany. involves a great deal of patience. “I ideological hardliners. They’re prompt him to take all concerns February 2020 The Security Times – Challenges 27 True north It’s not the melting of the sea ice, but rather Russia’s strategy that’s driving the new military focus on the Arctic

SHUTTERSTOCK/JANE RIX

idea of conflict persists, and how it Moreover, China has now The Arctic states have shown BY ANDREAS ØSTHAGEN AND SVEIN VIGELAND does not run counter to the ideas emerged as an Arctic actor. With their clear preference for a stable ROTTEM of regional cooperation and sta- Beijing continuing to assert a political environment that allows bility. Separating the international greater influence on the global them to maintain dominance ew places have been the level from the regional level can stage, the Arctic is one of many in the region. The importance source of as much specula- help clarify misconceptions about regions where China’s presence accorded to the Law of the Sea SHUTTERSTOCK/PETER HERMES FURIAN SHUTTERSTOCK/PETER Ftion, hype and broad state- the Arctic and the interests of the is a component of its great-power and issue-specific agreements ments as the Arctic at the start of actors involved. politics. China has labeled itself signed under the auspices of the the 21st century. Propelled onto During the Cold War, the Arctic a “near-Arctic state.” Despite the Arctic Council ensure that Arctic the agenda by flag-plantings and held a prominent spot in the inaccuracies of US Secretary of countries in particular as well as resource appraisals, the Arctic has political and military standoffs State Mike Pompeo’s warning in ensure that Arctic issues are gener- continued to lure researchers and between the two superpowers, the 2019 that Beijing’s Arctic activities ally dealt with by the Arctic states journalists to venture northward US and the USSR. It was impor- risk creating a “new South China themselves. to the next great game. tant not because of interactions Sea,” such statements highlight On the international level, the Fortunately, with more attention in the Arctic itself, but because of how the US views the Arctic as yet Arctic has again risen to the fore- comes more knowledge as well. its strategic role in the systemic another arena where the emerging front of strategic concerns among Reputable scholars have now competition between the US and systemic competition between the great powers (the US, Russia, debunked the notion of “resource the USSR. And now, after a drop two powers is becoming sharper. China). This has little to do with wars” taking place in the north; in geopolitical and geostrategic The US can and will engage in events actually in the Arctic (ice- after all, the UN Convention on relevance in the 1990s – which the Arctic, which is an important melt, economic ventures, etc.) and the Law of the Sea has already enabled various regional coopera- location for missile defense capa- everything to do with the strategic granted the Arctic states owner- tive schemes to be established in bilities, surveillance infrastructure importance of the Arctic for these ship over most of these areas. The the Arctic – the polar region’s stra- and a limited number of strategic actors. The Arctic states have no Arctic is not suffering a state of tegic importance has grown again. forces. rationale for engaging in outright anarchy; states cannot claim rights The renewed strategic impor- It is futile, however, to general- conflict over resources or territory to resources merely by planting tance of the Arctic has evolved ize about security interests and – although local rivalries have per- flags at the bottom of the sea. The primarily because Russia is intent challenges across the whole north- sisted, like that between Norway rights and duties of states con- on re-establishing its military ern circumpolar region. It is more and Russia. Yet the Arctic will not cerning the Arctic Ocean are well power – and sees the Arctic as one sensible to discuss security in become any less important on the documented by international law. domain where it can do just that. specific parts of the Arctic, not in Norway, Russia and the US – ments. The deterioration since strategic level. The rise of the Arctic Nevertheless, prognostications Its Northern Fleet is based on the the Arctic as a whole. Of these met in Ilulissat, Greenland, and 2014 in Russia’s relations with the on the agenda is no passing trend. of Arctic conflict and great-power Kola Peninsula, which houses stra- different segments, the European declared the Arctic “a region of other Arctic states has done little Geopolitics has re-entered the rivalry over the North Pole keep tegic submarines essential to the Arctic is undoubtedly the most cooperation.” They affirmed their to change the situation. Arctic and is there to stay. dominating headlines. Why is this state’s status as a nuclear power challenging. But there is not only intention to work within estab- The emergence of the Arctic so, if all is well up north? on the world stage. It is not the confrontation in the region. lished international arrangements, Council in 1996 as the primary It is useful to distinguish between melting of the sea ice that has In fact, intra-regional coopera- particularly the Law of the Sea forum for regional affairs in the international – systemic – level, spurred this military emphasis on tion on several issues has flour- regime. Since the Ilulissat meeting, the Arctic is worth noting. An SVEIN VIGELAND ROTTEM and ANDREAS ØSTHAGEN and the regional – Arctic – level. the Arctic – it is the importance ished. In 2008, in response to all Arctic states have repeated the increasing number of actors are senior research fellows Using such an approach, we can of the Arctic for Moscow’s more concerns about the lack of gover- mantra of cooperation and articu- have applied to the Council for at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute tease out the dynamics present general and global strategic plans nance in the Arctic, the five Arctic lated it in relatively streamlined observer status, including China, in Norway. in the Arctic and find out why the and ambitions. coastal states – Canada, Denmark, Arctic policy and strategy docu- India and the EU.

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THE WORLD AHEAD OF US

WE’RE CLEANING UP OUR 100% FREE FROM ACT. HEAVY FUEL OIL

Worldwide from July 2020, our ships will exclusively use marine gas oil with a maximum sulphur content of only 0.1 %. We are thus going above and beyond the statutory provisions and – thanks to forgoing heavy fuel oil – are reducing the sulphur emissions of our fleet by 80 %. In this way, we are setting standards for the cruise industry and protecting that which fascinates both us and our guests.

Catalytic converter technology, cold ironing and forgoing heavy fuel oil. More about this and other environ- mental protection measures at www.hl-cruises.com. February 2020 The Security Times 29 POLICY BRIEFS

which illiberal great powers have wea- BY IVAN KRASTEV ponized “Western hypocrisy”? How should the EU act and talk in such a situ- n Dec. 10, 1948, shattered by ation, keeping in mind that it as a post- the horrors of World War II, national political project depends on Othe international community the existence of the international liberal adopted the Universal Declaration of order and that liberal internationalism Human Rights. Of the United Nations’ and multilateralism is the EU’s mother 58 member states, 48 voted in favor of tongue? And how should the EU react to the declaration, eight abstained (the the escalating accusations of hypocrisy Soviet Union and its Eastern Euro- any time someone dares to speak about pean allies plus Saudi Arabia) and two values? did not vote. The world was far less The strategy most popular with Euro- liberal in 1948 than it is today, and the pean leaders today is to ignore the illib- concept of human rights wasn’t popu- eral turn, to treat it as an aberration and lar with the global public. Nevertheless, wait for America to make a U-turn back it would hardly raise an eyebrow were to its liberal self once Trump is out of one to speculate that if the 1948 Univer- office, and to bet on the exhaustion of sal Declaration came up for a vote in the the attractiveness of the illiberal actors. UN tomorrow, the chances of it being This strategy is a risky one. We have approved would be very slim. many reasons to believe that even after In 1948, the liberal order was a norma- Trump leaves office, the US will not tive horizon; today it is a contested hege- embrace its former role as the leader mony. The assumptions on which the lib- of the liberal world and the guarantor eral order rests are being challenged intel- of the liberal system. And even more lectually and politically by states within importantly, the US would face many and outside the West. constraints in playing this role. Illiberal states like China and Russia As indicated in a recent survey com- contest the West’s domination, but do so missioned by the European Council on by violating the rules of the liberal order Foreign Relations (ECFR), the US is per- rather than by offering a well-articulated ceived as a security threat rather than as normative alternative. What is more, an ally by a sizable segment of European when it is in their interests, illiberal states societies. It is also questionable how lib- position themselves as defenders of inter- eral the post-populist governments in the national institutions and global goods different parts of the world will be. The instead of offering alternatives to them. failure of populism does not automati- The support of China and Russia for the cally mean victory for liberalism. Paris Climate Agreement, for the World The only way for the EU to survive as Trade Organization and for the Global a liberal actor in an increasingly illiberal Compact for Migration in the face of US environment is by transforming itself opposition are cases in point. from a missionary who wants to shape At the same time, liberal norms are being the world in his own image into a mon- challenged within Western societies by astery focused on protecting the very rising populist parties and especially by exceptional nature of its political project. the Trump administration, which has When the EU raises human rights defined America’s commitment to the issues in its conversations with China, liberal order as the country’s major vul- it should make its expectations clear: nerability in the modern world. Once the it is not trying to change China’s atti- liberal hegemon, the US has decided to tudes, but instead preserve the EU’s preserve its power by overthrowing the own exceptional nature. In this sense, liberal norms on which its hegemony was China’s behavior in the first post-com- founded. munist decades could be an interesting Through the increasing passion and model to follow. China accommodated frequency of their attacks on the West itself to many of the global trends that for unbearable hypocrisy, illiberal politi- shaped the post-Cold War world, but it cal leaders in Russia and elsewhere have defended the role of Marxist language been sending a clear signal to their popu- and the Communist Party as the way lations about the revolutionary change to preserve its state identity. In the they represent. post-communist decades, China acted What are the sources of this all-powerful with the full awareness that some of the hypersensitivity about hypocrisy? Is the assumptions in which it had believed problem power asymmetries that make had turned out to be wrong, but at the relatively less powerful states and societ- same time it made Chinese communism ies particularly sensitive to the big boys the defining characteristic of its excep- breaking the rules? Is it the tendency of tionalism. The EU should do the same the US and the EU, more so than any regarding liberalism. other global powers, to regularly invoke In other words, if until now the EU universal principles to justify their con- was very much colored by the idea of the duct of foreign policy? universality of its values and institutions, Finding answers to these “hypocrisy in the future it should sharply stress its questions” is critical, because the accu- exceptionalism. If before it was proud of sation of hypocrisy is the most effective the undefined nature of its borders, now strategy for de-legitimizing the current it will have to fix its borders. The distinc- liberal order –bearing in mind that there tive nature of a monastery is that while it is no other set of normative ideas able to hopes to influence the world beyond its challenge it at the moment. door, it is aware that it lives in a different The hypocrisy of Western leaders – normative space than the outside world. lecturing the world about high-minded It is insulated from the world, and there

values while actually being motivated by SHUTTERSTOCK/BILEY-16 is a clear border between being inside selfish geopolitical interests – has become the monastery and being outside of it. one of Russia’s gnawing obsessions. The To focus on the exceptional nature of so-called “liberal international order,” in the EU is the only strategy that would Moscow’s view, was nothing nobler than sustain the internal cohesion of the a projection of America’s will to domi- union while at the same time acting as nate the world. Western universalism was From missionary an alternative to growing illiberal trends. just a false front for Western particular- Brussels’ new climate agenda is also an ism. America, in particular, disguised the opportunity for the EU to re-invent its enlargement of its sphere of influence as soft power and to stress its belief in mul- an expansion of the frontiers of freedom. tilateralism. What the West celebrated as popular to monastery The EU should define itself as a monas- democratic revolutions were simply West- tery within the world of sin, a monastery sponsored coups d’état. How Europe should counter the rise of illiberal democracies that is economically and even militarily In her remarkable book Ordinary Vices, powerful enough to preserve its autono- the American philosopher Judith Shklar mous role and way of life, but one that insists that we should not be so harshly tries to transform others only through critical of hypokrisis, for it is a necessary Alternative explanations for the West’s seems to do, makes it impossible to arrive By relying on the exposure of an the example of its very existence. And it element in any liberal society, in any soci- failures to live up to its own ideals – such as at any sensible policy directed at reduc- enemy’s hypocrisy to justify one’s own should refrain from succumbing to des- ety that talks values. In her view, it is also poor planning, muddling through, naïveté, ing tensions and re-building trust between aggressive acts, one can attack the exist- peration, for every monastery is a mis- an unattractive but unavoidable feature self-deception and lack of coordination Russia and the West. We recently heard ing world order without offering any sionary in waiting. of international relations. At the same on the Western side – are strategically similar fixations on Western hypocrisy positive alternative. But this is not a for- time, criticizing hypocrisy is also tricky, downplayed in order to underscore Amer- coming from Turkey, China and Brazil. mula for a sober foreign policy based on because in politics it is almost impossible ica’s principled bad proper understand- IVAN KRASTEV to criticize hypocrisy without falling into faith. Unmasking ing of the actions is a fellow at the Institute for Human the trap of playing the part one is also hypocrisy implic- and motivations Sciences in Vienna and the Richard criticizing. While anti-hypocrisy rhetoric itly attributes mali- of the other side. von Weizsäcker fellow at the Robert has its legitimate arguments, it is one of cious intentions to Once the liberal hegemon, Instead, it increases Bosch Foundation in Berlin. He our major findings that the weaponiza- the adversary. Dis- the risks of danger- is a founding board member of the US has decided to preserve the European Council on Foreign tion of anti-hypocrisy rhetoric is partially tinguishing public ous accidents. Relations, a member of the board of responsible for the current miserable state justifications from What should be trustees of the International Crisis of international affairs. hidden motivations its power by overthrowing the the policy of any Group and a contributing opinion By focusing on the West’s hypoc- is only common state actor that writer for The New York Times. risy, Russia has fatally eroded the trust sense. But focusing liberal norms on which its wants to preserve His piece is based on the research project on hypocrisy that Krastev between Russia and the West. In the dogmatically and hegemony was founded the normative initiated and led at the Robert Bosch Kremlin’s view, hypocrisy is the skeleton obsessively on this power of the liberal Academy. key for unlocking Western foreign policy. distinction, as Russia values in a world in 30 The Security Times – Policy Briefs February 2020

Aiding and abetting Will European arms manufacturers come before the International Criminal Court in The Hague?

stopped issuing permits for arms being committed with the weap- The ICC took up its duties in Airbus spokesman in December, try. So far, however, weapons BY MARKUS BICKEL deliveries to Saudi Arabia more ons delivered. It lists 26 air strikes 2002 and is responsible for the thereby placing the responsibil- manufacturers have been cau- than a year ago, mainly because on markets, schools, hospitals and prosecution of wars of aggres- ity squarely on the shoulders of tious with regard to the damage he allegations are noth- of the murder of journalist Jamal other civilian targets in Yemen, sion, war crimes, crimes against political decision makers. claims looming on the horizon. ing new. Human rights Khashoggi in the Saudi consul- all of which would not have been humanity and genocide. How- And yet, it is exactly these poli- Last year, the Baden-Württem- Torganizations have been ate in Istanbul in October 2018, possible without the supply of ever, the court is not authorized ticians who for years have raised berg-based group Würth alone accusing European arms manu- but also because of the war in armaments and spare parts from to investigate the government of concerns among the arms lobby, filed an objection to a decision facturers of aiding and abetting Yemen. In 2019, however, deliv- Europe as well as training and Saudi Arabia or its military allies, especially because the Grand made by Germany’s Minister of war crimes in Yemen since 2015. eries to European arms projects Coalition in Berlin has signaled Economic Affairs, Peter Altmaier, That was the year Saudi Arabia’s were permitted in some cases. its intention to push through an which prohibits the delivery of air force began bombing military After submitting their criminal increasingly restrictive export switches for armored police vehi- and civilian targets in the coun- complaint to the International The 350-page complaint policy. Therefore it is rather cles to a French company that try sometimes referred to as “the Criminal Court (ICC) in The surprising that in 2019 German would then export the vehicles to poorhouse of the Arab world.” As Hague in December, German and argues that no party can say arms sales amounted to a record Saudi Arabia. a result of the bombings, the judi- Yemeni human rights activists of €8 billion. A statement issued Today, support for the Arab ciary in Italy launched an inves- are now seeking to put a stop to that they were unaware of the by the leading lobbying group military alliance in Yemen from tigation into RWM Italia, a sub- these deliveries. In December, the known as the German Security German corporations and gov- sidiary of the German arms giant Berlin-based European Center atrocities being committed and Defense Industry Associa- ernment members is not the only Rheinmetall Defence, which pro- for Constitutional and Human tion argued that “if Germany thorn in the side of human rights duces precision guided bombs on Rights, the Yemeni human rights with the weapons delivered wants to claim a special role for organizations and opponents of the island of Sardinia. In July 2019, group known as Mwatana and itself – one that is incompat- war. It looks like arms deliver- the parliament in Rome revoked four other organizations filed a technical assistance from the Arab such as the United Arab Emirates ible with its closest European ies to Turkey, including leopard the company’s export license for lawsuit against Airbus, the Euro- military coalition. or Egypt, because those countries partners – in the realm of arms main battle tanks manufactured the sale of MK 80 aircraft bombs pean joint venture that also hap- The complaint focuses on com- have not joined the ICC. Ger- exports, it will isolate itself in by Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maf- to Saudi Arabia and the United pens to deliver combat aircraft to panies and political actors in Ger- many and other EU countries, on Europe and no longer be seen as fei Wegmann, might also be the Arab Emirates. the warring parties in Abu Dhabi many, France, the United King- the other hand, are signatories a partner for arms cooperation subject of litigation in the near Those two Gulf monarchies and Riyadh. Moreover, the com- dom, Italy and Spain. In addition bound by its decisions. agreements and joint projects.” future. head up an Arab military alliance plaint named the largest German to Airbus Defence and Space and For now, the companies con- This argument has been heard that wants to drive the Houthi defense company, Rheinmetall Rheinmetall Defence, the other cerned are continuing to show a before under the catchphrase rebels out of Yemen’s capital, Defence in Düsseldorf, whose companies named are Dassault measured reaction to the charges, “German-free,” which is used Sanáa, and other parts of the Italian subsidiary RMW Italia has Aviation in France, Leonardo in though that could change as at trade fairs so as not to deter MARKUS BICKEL is editor-in-chief of country. The UN High Com- manufactured bombs dropped on Italy and the UK’s BAE Systems, investigations continue. “The potential buyers. Amnesty Journal, missioner holds this alliance residential areas in Yemen. the latter of which signed a con- final decision on the export The suspension of arms a magazine published by responsible for one-third of all The 350-page complaint argues tract with Saudi Arabia in 2007 of arms is made solely on the exports to Saudi Arabia after the the German chapter of civilian casualties in the war. For that no party can say that they for the purchase of a total of 72 basis of a release issued by the Khashoggi murder has already Amnesty International. its part, the German government were unaware of the atrocities Eurofighter Typhoon jets. federal government,” noted an caused turmoil in the arms indus-

Who’s buying, who’s selling

Top ten arms-producing and military services companies in the world, excluding China, in 2018

RANK ARMS SALES Arms Change Total sales as a 2017 to sales % of total 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2018 sales 2018 1 1 Lockheed Martin US $47.3 $44.9 5.2% $53.8 88% 2 2 Boeing US $29.2 $27.6 5.7% $101.1 29% 3 3 Northrop Grumman US $26.2 $22.9 14% $30.1 87% 4 4 Raytheon US $23.4 $22.6 3.9% $27.1 87% 5 4 General Dynamics US $22.0 $19.9 10% $36.2 61% 6 5 BAE Systems UK $21.2 $22.4 -5.2% $22.4 95% 7 7 Airbus Group Europe $11.7 $10.7 9.0% $75.2 15% 8 9 Leonardo Italy $9.8 $9.4 4.4% $14.4 68% 9 10 Almaz-Antey Russia $9.6 $8.2 18% $9.9 98% 10 8 Thales France $9.5 $9.6 -14% $18.8 50%

All $ figures in billions

Japan $46.6 -0.1 5.1 South TOP 10 MILITARY Korea SPENDERS IN 2018 $43.1

Countries with the highest military expenditure 5.0 in USD billion China Percentage change 2017–18 $250

4.6 3.1 US $649 India $66.5

Russia $61.4 1.0 -3.5 UK $50 Saudi Arabia $67.6 France 1.8 $63.8 Germany -6.5 -1.4 $49.5

Source: SIPRI and Myriad Editions February 2020 The Security Times – Policy Briefs 31

The complex The indefensible US defense budget

idly growing military, valued inter- sands of people in the Pentagon rather than small numbers of Yet until the Trump administra- building, counter-terrorism, BY JESSICA T. MATHEWS national aims that are otherwise make up the best long-range plan- very high-cost systems like the tion, US foreign policy changed counterinsurgency – alone or in unattainable? If we were forced ning and budgeting capability in new F-35 fighter at more than $90 little from the goals and practices concert with others, has failed to he sheer size of the United to make budgetary tradeoffs the government. Even if they million per plane. The US is not it followed for the previous 70 achieve the desired results. States military establish- could we achieve equal or better wanted to, Congressional com- in the lead in making this politi- years. The past three years have Part of the reason is that during Tment and the American security for much less money? mittees could not attempt a seri- cally disruptive yet vital transi- certainly introduced change, but this period, administrations of habit of equating military spend- There are no widely agreed upon ous analysis of what they produce, tion. With what former Defense nothing remotely like a coherent both political parties have allowed ing with patriotism have made answers because for many years beginning with an evaluation of Secretary Robert Gates termed a approach to new conditions. support for the government’s dip- sound management and serious now, the questions haven’t been the asserted threats, followed by “gargantuan, labyrinthine bureau- Globalization and digital tech- lomatic arm to wither to the point oversight in the area increasingly asked. an independent assessment of cracy” in the Pentagon, manufac- nologies make national security that long-standing weaknesses rare. For a democracy, that puts The so-called undernourished the proposed strategy for meeting turers and subcontractors for within fixed borders harder to have resulted in serious underper- the US on an unusual and risky military against which Repub- them and of the forces and facili- each weapons system carefully achieve and maintain. The world formance. The tools of diplomacy path. Capitol Hill’s annual debate licans railed at the close of the ties needed to execute the strat- distributed across the country’s that lies ahead of us is unequivo- – negotiation, international coop- about military spending no longer Obama administration was actu- egy. Mostly though, they don’t congressional districts and backed cally one in which more and more eration, the creation and nurtur- compares military with domes- ally supported by the highest want to even try, preferring to by aggressive lobbyists, members of the greatest challenges – cyber ing of institutions and the making tic needs or asks where real cuts spending (the direct budget plus protect spending and jobs in their of Congress determined to pro- regulation, arms control, nonpro- of international law – are dispar- could be made – it only asks how the contingency for the wars in districts. The result is duplicative tect constituents’ jobs and mili- liferation, financial stability and aged as too slow and ineffective. much of an increase is needed. Iraq and Afghanistan) in inflation- spending, funding for weapons tary leaders loyal to the weap- trade, climate change, health and Unqualified campaign contributors The momentum that drives this adjusted dollars since the end of systems the armed forces don’t ons systems they trained on and the environment, crime and the are appointed to important dip- growth, disconnected from hard World War II. Under the Trump want, bases and facilities they commanded, it is no surprise that rule of law – can only be dealt lomatic posts. Congress responds thought about America’s respon- administration, the budget has would like to close, and bloated, the defense establishment has with multilaterally. Yet since the to the problems it sees by cutting sibilities in a transformed world, soared by roughly $100 billion inefficient back-office (noncom- become extravagant, wasteful and end of the Cold War, the US has budgets, which creates more prob- could prove unstoppable and more to $738 billion this year. In bat) operations. less agile, innovative and forward- rejected most of the international lems. The lack of resources often have massive consequences. At order to partially pay for these For years, the army has tried to looking than it should be. Trump, agreements the rest of the world means that the military, simply home, defense spending crowds increases, the administration pro- convince Congress to stop buying still defensive about his failure to has approved, including the Law because it has the money and out funds for things needed to new tanks. The military already serve in Vietnam, is making things of the Sea Treaty, the Compre- manpower, is called on to carry ensure a prosperous economy and has more than six thousand – much worse. Last year, he boasted hensive Test Ban Treaty, the Anti- out humanitarian and governance healthy society. Abroad, it has led vastly more than would be needed that with his immense $750 billion personnel Landmine Ban and the tasks for which it is not well-suited. us to become a country reflex- in any conceivable future combat. proposed defense budget “I think International Criminal Court. For many years, the US has ively reliant on the military and New aircraft carriers, at more I make up for that right now.” It has refused to ratify treaties increasingly relied on military one quite different from what we The United than $13 billion each are arguably The United States does not protecting genetic resources, strength to achieve its foreign think ourselves to be or, I believe, more an outdated symbol of 20th- face acute threats, yet it spends restricting trade in conventional policy aims. In doing so, it has wish to be. States does century power than an effective more on defense than the next arms, banning cluster bombs paid too little heed to the issues Defense spending is generally weapons system for a future in eight largest spenders combined and protecting persons with dis- that military power cannot solve, expressed as a percentage of not face acute which they will be increasingly – China, Saudi Arabia, India, abilities. In his few years in office, to the need for diplomatic capa- GDP. At roughly 3-4 percent, that vulnerable to attack by high- France, Russia, Britain, Germany President Trump has rejected the bilities at least as strong as mili- sounds eminently affordable. But threats, yet it speed, maneuverable missiles that and Japan – and four of these Trans-Pacific Partnership trade tary ones and, in particular, to the this measure is close to meaning- can be bought for a miniscule frac- countries are treaty allies. The dis- agreement and withdrawn from necessity of multilateral problem- less. It makes no sense to expect spends more tion of what a carrier costs. proportion has held for decades. the Paris Accord on climate, the solving to address current threats. that external threats will expand In 2018, an incredible 26 years This level of military commitment INF Treaty on intermediate-range We are now allocating too large in parallel with a country’s eco- on defense after Congress required it, the might be said to be justified by missiles, the UN Human Rights a portion of the federal budget to nomic growth. A country whose Pentagon was finally able to pro- our choice of a global leadership Council, UNESCO and the Iran defense as compared to domes- economy has grown by, say, 30 than the next duce an auditable financial state- role that has ensured the secu- nuclear deal and threatens to kill tic needs, tolerating too much percent has no reason to spend ment. It revealed a nonfunctional rity of numerous friends and the last major superpower arms spending that doesn’t buy useful 30 percent more on its military. eight largest accounting system, systemic allies and created and sustained control agreement, the New capability, accumulating too much To the contrary, unless threats weaknesses in cybersecurity and a peaceful world order since the START Treaty. federal debt, and yet not acquiring worsen over time, defense spend- spenders com- such pervasive deficiencies that end of World War II. Whether During these nearly 30 years of a forward-looking, 21st-century ing as a percentage of a growing bined – China, almost no Pentagon agency could that is true is much harder to diplomatic withdrawal, America military built around new cyber economy should decline. The accurately account for its spend- judge. Administrations produce has been engaged in combat and space technologies. We have valid measure of affordability Saudi Arabia, ing. Not surprisingly, one result a National Security Strategy, a for all but a few months. It has become complacent and strategi- is defense spending’s share of is waste in overhead. An interna- National Defense Strategy and a undertaken nine large-scale mili- cally flabby about adapting to a the national budget – in the US India, France, tional comparison by McKinsey National Military Strategy. They tary actions, including three of the profoundly altered world. Major case, of the federal discretionary & Co. rated the US next to last all say that conditions are dan- five major wars it has fought since change will require a quality of budget, which pays for every- Russia, Britain, among the 30 countries it stud- gerous, volatile, disorderly, unpre- 1945. Only one of these – the Gulf leadership we haven’t seen in a thing except for mandatory allot- ied in the number of personnel dictable and generally getting War of 1990–1991 – was a clear long time, leadership from men ments to social entitlements and Germany and needed to support each combat worse. More recently, they cite success. The war of choice in Iraq and women leading the White interest on the national debt. soldier. A study by the Pentagon’s the return of great power threats was a catastrophic mistake and House, Congress and the Penta- Defense spending now accounts Japan – and own Defense Business Board con- from Russia and China. Much the nearly 20-year war in Afghani- gon who are respected for their for 60 percent of that budget: cluded that “We can see a clear of this is true, but a strategy is a stan will almost certainly end in national security experience and everything else the government four of these path to saving over $125 billion in means to reach a goal and what failure. The US has spent more who are willing to pay a steep does – from education, agricul- the next five years” in noncom- none of these documents does – on reconstruction in Afghanistan political price for what must be ture, science, infrastructure and countries are bat operations. Many experts and what the country as a whole in inflation-adjusted dollars than done. Even then, the process will the environment, to law enforce- with firsthand experience believe hasn’t done – is to reset its goals it did on the Marshall Plan with be hard, slow and painful, but it is ment and the regulation of drugs, treaty allies the achievable savings are much for a profoundly altered world. almost nothing to show for it. surely overdue. banks and airplanes – is squeezed greater. Five transformations, each It has become increasingly clear into the remaining two-fifths. By The worst consequence of nearly revolutionary in scope, that the largely intrastate conflicts this measure, defense spending is spending on legacy weapons have been packed in to the short in which the US has embroiled neither affordable nor, on its pro- systems, unneeded facilities and 30 years since the end of the Cold itself – fighting small groups of JESSICA T. MATHEWS is a Distinguished Fellow at jected growth path, sustainable. posed to cut or slash spending for over-staffed, inefficient bureau- War: globalization, the war on shifting, local opponents, rather the Carnegie Endowment for What would finally be too much? 13 of the 16 cabinet agencies – all cracies is what isn’t done with terror, the advent of digital tech- than national armies – have International Peace. Her piece Two-thirds of the total? Seventy but Defense, Veterans Affairs and that money. Militaries of the nology, China’s growth explosion, not been the kind of conven- is an adapted and updated version of her article “America’s percent? Homeland Security. future will use swarms of cheap, as well as the emergence of popu- tional interstate wars for which Indefensible Defense Budget,” Is the US as threatened as such Underlying political dynam- unmanned weapons, targeted and lism and weakening of democ- its weapons and doctrine were New York Review of Books, lopsided spending suggests? Or, ics are what drive the money controlled using networked sat- racy worldwide. Taken together, designed. Every approach the US July 16, 2019. are we achieving, through a rap- machine year after year. Thou- ellites and artificial intelligence, they have reshaped the world. has tried – regime change, nation-

o date, the best thing we of “legal espionage” of military of State Mike Pompeo, of actually Despite these misgivings, can say about the arms facilities between Vancouver and pulling out of the treaty. Berlin’s Brookes also provides a counter- Tcontrol agreement known Vladivostok designed to foster Foreign Ministry stated that the argument, noting that “indeed, Legal as the Open Skies Treaty (OST) is transparency and trust among the OST was “one of the last function- with a number of security chal- that it’s not dead yet. participating countries. More than ing mechanisms for generating trust lenges worldwide, there are limits There have been reports, how- 1,500 such flights have been car- between Europe and Russia.” They on the availability of US military ever, that US President Donald ried out to date. The unique char- also argued that OST was of key satellite coverage.” He goes on Trump raised the prospect of acteristic of the treaty is that pilots importance considering the already to say that a number of US allies espionage withdrawing from the OST in a from both the surveilling and sur- severely compromised security and partners “value US participa- memorandum issued in Octo- veilled countries fly together. architecture in the world today. tion in the OST for other rea- Will the US terminate ber 2019. Of course, that was However, buddy-buddy sorties There are reasons cited why the sons, including maintaining also the year that Trump pulled such as these could soon come to US wants to terminate the OST strong trans-Atlantic ties and as the Open Skies Treaty? out of the Cold War-era deal an end. The US government has treaty. The two aircraft used by a symbol of the US commitment known as the Intermediate Range threatened to pull out of the OST, the US Air Force are “decades old to peace and security in Europe Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), arguing that Russia is restricting and need to be replaced,” Peter during a period of Russian bel- which banned land-based, short observation flights over Kalinin- Brookes, former deputy assistant ligerence and aggression.” and medium-range missiles. The grad and refusing to allow flights secretary of defense and senior The good news is that even nuclear arms reduction treaty on the border with Abkhazia fellow at the Heritage Founda- though Trump has the power to known as New START, which is and South Ossetia. In return, the tion, wrote in The National Inter- withdraw from the treaty without up for renewal next year, is also United States has restricted flights est. Brookes also noted that the Congressional approval, during facing the same fate. over military facilities, for exam- onboard sensor suite needed negotiations on the defense The Open Skies Treaty was ple over missile defense systems upgrading, which would involve budget in December 2019, Con- signed in 1992, entered into force in Alaska and Hawaii, where its costs of around $200 million. gress was able to insist that the in 2002 and now has a total of 34 Pacific fleet is located. Some would argue that that’s a lot Defense Department and State members, including Russia. These According to media reports, the of money to spend on images that Department would first have to states all agreed to have unarmed foreign ministers of France, Ger- could be obtained by other means, prove that leaving the OST was in aerial surveillance flights carried many and the UK have warned such as using state-of-the-art US the interest of the United States. out over their territories – a type their US counterpart, Secretary satellite systems. PHK 32 The Security Times – Policy Briefs February 2020

Crowd strike

The third revolution in arms technology. How drone systems are changing warfare

SHUTTERSTOCK Drone wars: Coming soon to a city near you?

both. Or, in the words of Jane’s held by the Russian defense min- motors. These particular drones each other like swarms in nature.” signatory states of the UN Con- BY NANA BRINK author Andrew White: “The abil- istry, appear to be rather simply – referred to as UAV-X by UN The SCO claims the small drones vention on Certain Conventional ity to conduct unmanned swarm- constructed. The explosives were weapons experts – can fly 155 mph are not “Kamikaze robots,” but Weapons (CCW) have been debat- t first glance, the YouTube ing operations from the air, land fixed to the body of the drones for over 900 miles. Depending serve rather as instuments of ing drone technologies in Geneva. presentation by DARPA and sea continues to gather pace as using adhesive tape. These “killer on wind conditions and general reconnaissance. Like their name- But in August of last year, govern- A looks a lot like an ama- armed forces seek advanced auton- bees” seem to have been cobbled capacity, they can carry up to 40 sakes in nature, the Perdix drones ment experts were only able to teur video. Young men – some in omous technologies to overcome together in a garage from an off- pounds of explosives. And they fly under the radar. agree to extend the ongoing talks camouflage – holding tablets are adversaries.” the-shelf drone kit for a few thou- can also fly en masse. However, it does not require too for another two years. The main flying drones. About the size of a The development of drones has sand dollars. The swarm itself is the actual much creativity to imagine how point of dispute is the regulation, man’s palm, they whirr around like recently made one fact abundantly weapon. But what makes it so the allegedly harmless “surveil- championed by experts on inter- a swarm of birds – changing direc- clear: The deployment of drones effective that great powers with lance partridges” could mutate national law, that a human must tion on a dime, suddenly dispers- is no longer the sole domain of massive defense industries, such into “killer bees” with explosives always have ultimate control of the ing, then reconvening. Cut. The the great powers. Non-state actors as the US, China, Russia, the UK, under their wings. The Future of operation of a weapons system. clip then shows the target area, such as terrorist groups and mili- Although Israel and South Korea, are sink- Life Institute activist Stuart Rus- This is known as the principle of a square. Cut. Hundreds of black tias are now making use of these ing hundreds of millions of dol- sell’s viral 2017 video Slaughter- “meaningful human control.” dots move onto the square. Cut. “Kalashnikovs of the air,” which are several lars into the development of their bots shows what this could look Although several non-aligned The young men look deadly seri- increasingly unleashed in swarms non-aligned LAWS? like. The 8-minute drama depicts states are pleading for a ban, large ous. The dots then dissipate. The of “killer robots.” A glance at the sky can help swarms of mini-drones that, by countries like Russia and China men smile. What transpired on Jan. 6, states are explain. A swarm of birds seems way of AI, become killer machines block any and all attempts at a ban DARPA stands for Defense 2018, at the Russian-operated to rely on instinct to coordinate that use pre-programmed infor- in order to continue the ongoing Advanced Research Projects Khmeimim Air Base in Syria was pleading for its movements – a self-organizing mation to recognize and extermi- development of their LAWS. The Agency, and the project the young not all that different from the con- system indeed. And one with sev- nate political opponents and stu- US is also generally against such a men in the Pentagon research tent of the DARPA video. In the a ban, large eral advantages: All members of dent protesters. UN provision and makes no secret department are showcasing is the early morning hours, a swarm of the swarm – right up to the lead Future of Life, the self-pro- of its intent to continue using AI “next generation in autonomous drones suddenly appeared on Rus- countries like bird – appear equal. They fly with- claimed independent research in weapons technology without warfare,” according to the usu- sian Air Force radars. Two days out impeding any fellow flyers. institute in Boston – which has any restrictions. This stance was ally well-informed journal Jane’s later the Russian defense minister Russia and Even if parts of the swarm fall boasted Stephen Hawking and justified in its Summary of the International Defence Review in its announced that seven drones had away, the remaining mass carries Tesla founder Elon Musk as 2018 Department of Defense Arti- title article from November 2019. been shot down and the remaining China block on its trajectory. Put in military members – is among the most ficial Intelligence Strategy, noting The project – Offensive Swarm- six brought under control. terms: While a single aircraft can prominent opponents of the fur- that America’s strategic com- Enabled Tactics (OFFSET) – is “Islamic extremists” are believed any and all be shot out of the sky, eliminating ther development of LAWS. It petitive advantage was at stake: reportedly one of more than a to have planned the attack on the an entire swarm of aircraft is far is demanding not only a ban on “Other nations, particularly China hundred programs in the civil and air base in the west of the coun- attempts more difficult. autonomous weaponry, but indeed and Russia, are making significant military sectors of the US that are try. Yet they must have had help. But how far are manufacturers the end of collaboration between investments in AI for military working under great time pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin at a ban away from completing the devel- the military and the private sector. purposes. The United States must on the development and refine- has steered suspicions toward the opment of autonomous drone In a 2018 protest note, Google adopt AI to maintain its strategic ment of drone-swarm technol- US, as the technology “could only swarms? Despite the effectiveness employees came out against this position.” ogy. DARPA alone has allocated come from a country that com- But it was not the technology of large drones such as the Ameri- cooperation: “We believe that Although Germany, which along around $2 billion “to develop the mands a high degree of techno- that alarmed military experts; it can MQ-9 Reaper, which can fly Google should not be in the busi- with France advocates a “concilia- next wave of artificial intelligence logical prowess.” was rather the swarming. Never 300 mph and in January 2020 was ness of war.” And in July 2018, the tory solution,” is targeting a LAWS (AI) technologies.” The drones did not reach their before had so many drones been equipped with Hellfire missiles for Future of Life Institute issued a prohibition as part of a coalition This next wave is subject to the target, but Russia’s defense strategy deployed in concert. And the the assassination of Iranian Gen- public appeal, signed by leading sci- agreement, as John Reyels of the highest level of secrecy. The com- overshot its goal as well. Just a few approach used in the attack on eral Qassim Soleimani, the trend entists and businesses in the field foreign ministry’s arms control petition over autonomous weap- days after the attack, resourceful Khmeimim Air Base appears to is toward mini-drones such as the of AI, with an unambiguous mes- division stressed at a confer- ons systems has been underway reporters from The Daily Beast pub- have caught on; Sept. 14, 2019, Perdix (which is also the name of sage: “We call upon governments ence hosted by the Green-Party- for quite some time. Drone experts lished an article speculating on the saw a similar attack on two Saudi a genus of partridges). and government leaders to create affiliated Heinrich Böll Founda- such as Paul Scharre estimate that origin of the drones. Examples of Arabian oil processing facilities in Developed by the Pentagon’s a future with strong international tion, “the optimal case would be it will only be a few years before projectiles almost identical in con- Abqaiq and Khurais. Houthi rebels Strategic Capabilities Office norms, regulations and laws against a ban, but this is not attainable.” autonomous weapons – also struction – they were roughly two from Yemen claimed responsibil- (SCO), the merely 300-gram lethal autonomous weapons.” However, neither Germany nor called LAWS, or Lethal Autono- meters wide, are controlled via GPS ity for that strike; their weapons of 3D-printed Perdix drones proved While UN Secretary-General France is currently urging a ban to mous Weapons Systems – become and can be loaded with explosives choice were dozens of “Kamikaze in 2016 that flying in swarms is António Guterres has deemed achieve what is called a “minimal reality. Critics often use the term – have surfaced on the social media drones” that honed in on their tar- possible. According to their chief autonomous weapons “politically consensus.” What form this will “killer robots” to refer to drones platform known as Telegram. gets and deliberately crashed there of development, William Roper: unacceptable and morally repug- ultimately take remains to be seen. as well as unmanned submarines This messaging app, also capable with precision. “Due to the complex nature of nant” and calls for their ban under All signs point to an intensified and aircraft. of encrypted correspondence, is A UN report by the Panel of combat, Perdix are not pre-pro- international law, the probability arms race, with no end in sight. The advent of AI in weapons popular among IS supporters as Experts on Yemen in January grammed synchronized individu- of a treaty in the near future is dis- Or, as Stephen Hawking wrote in technology about a decade ago well as IS sympathizers and ter- 2019 unambiguously showed als, they are a collective organism, mally low. The issue of arms con- his posthumously published book has completely altered the future rorist groups. The drones, which how drones are manufactured in sharing one distributed brain for trol in our current political climate Brief Answers to the Big Questions: of warfare. The cutting edge of can also be seen in photographs Iran using Chinese and German decision-making and adapting to is a nonstarter. Since 2014, the 125 “Whereas the short-term impact this technology has long surpassed of AI depends on who controls self-propelled robots and flying it, the long-term impact depends objects piloted remotely. The van- A THE HISTORY OF DRONE OPERATIONS on whether it can be controlled guard now focuses on systems that at all.” act fully independently. LAWS • At the beginning of the 1990s, the US deploys the first UAVs US government data, between 2,400 and 2,600 militants were constitute the third generation (unmanned aerial vehicle) for surveillance during Operation killed in these attacks. More precise totals are difficult to establish. in warfare technology: After the Desert Storm and the Yugoslav Wars. • Since 2014, restrictions on LAWS have been under negotiation invention of gun powder and the • After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the armed drone Predator is within the framework of the Convention on Certain Conventional NANA BRINK is a Berlin-based freelance atomic bomb comes the ability for deployed in Afghanistan to pursue Taliban leaders. Weapons (CCW). Talks have thus far been unsuccessful. journalist for various humans to place the decision of • Under US President Barack Obama, targeted assassinations • Since 2015, terrorist groups have been deploying drones (in newspapers and a radio who should live and who should using drones becomes US policy. The CIA carries out drone Syria, Lebanon and Yemen). reporter and moderator die into the hands of autono- strikes in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen using a “kill list.” The • In 2019, drones strike Saudi Arabian oil fields. Houthi rebels (Deutschlandfunk). She mously operated machines. Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) documents 563 drone claim responsibility for the attack. focuses on global politics and security policy. She is a The question is: Are LAWS attacks between 2008 and 2016 in the three countries, none of • On Jan. 3, 2020, the US uses a drone to kill Iranian General member of WIIS.de (Women already available for deployment? which was or is at war with the US. Civilian casualties from the Qassim Soleimani in Iraq. For the first time, a military leader is in International Security Or is the DARPA video still a bit strikes are estimated to be between 384 and 807. According to killed on foreign soil in country that is not his own. Deutschland). of science fiction? The answer is February 2020 The Security Times – Policy Briefs 33

Among the big three, Germany BY ULRIKE FRANKE Artificial turf is the outlier. In its 2018 national AI strategy, the military, security n Europe, 2019 was the year of and geopolitical elements of AI artificial intelligence (AI). Gov- Europe needs a plan for AI in the military realm are notably absent. Defense is Iernments put together expert mentioned only in one sentence, groups, organized public debates which implicitly shifts all respon- and published national strategies sibility for this area to the ministry designed to grapple with the pos- This neglect is not helpful. It of defense. As this ministry tradi- sible implications of AI in areas such means that little information is tionally publishes few doctrinal or as health care, the labor market and available about European thinking strategy documents, it is unlikely transportation. European countries on AI in the military, and that there that a German military AI strategy developed training programs, allo- is scant discussion of how Euro- will see the light of day. cated investment and made plans pean armed forces plan to use AI. More importantly, the German for research cooperation. In 2020, Yet the fact remains that European political realm, spearheaded by the challenge for governments will companies are already developing the foreign ministry, seems to be to show that they can fulfill their AI-enabled military systems. have taken the decision to deal promises by translating ideas into It would be a bad idea for Europe with military AI primarily from effective policies. to try to sit this development out an arms control angle. As a con- But despite attempts to coordinate – or to approach it with an exclu- sequence, the German expert these efforts – most notably that of sively national focus. While no one community focuses mostly on AI the European Commission, which can predict exactly how revolution- arms control and disarmament. called upon member states to maxi- ary it will be, AI is likely to have a Given the extent to which this mize cooperation through the publi- considerable impact on how mili- angle dominates the debate, and cation of AI strategies – there is one taries operate, and on how wars are how different it is from the French

AI-relevant area in which Europe waged. As Europeans discuss plans AIRBUS approach, it poses questions for lacks coherence, and which generally for strategic sovereignty – both in Doing vids. How revolutionary will AI look in the military realm? joint French-German projects receives too little attention. In fact, an the military and in the technology like the new Future Combat Air analysis of official documents from sector – military AI, which is rel- drones. Or it can examine photo- important, especially for cash- are not featured in the list above, System fighter jet, which will rely various European countries suggests evant to both areas, deserves more graphs to single out changes from strapped militaries. But technolo- Europe cannot afford to disregard heavily on AI elements. fundamental differences that may be attention. one picture to the next – a useful gies are truly groundbreaking only these developments. Given the changes expected difficult to bridge. This area is the use One of the problems of the Euro- function to indicate the presence if they provide new capabilities or Of the big three European states to be caused by AI in the mili- of AI in the military realm. pean, particularly German, debate of an explosive device hidden in allow for tactics that go beyond – Germany, France and the UK – tary realm and given the level Despite a marked growth of work on AI-enabled military systems is the time between the photos were what already exists. Artificial intel- France has shown the most inter- of attention paid to the issue in on the economic and societal con- the focus on LAWS. These systems taken. Other intelligence-relevant ligence might be able to provide est in military AI. Defense was other countries – most notably sequences of the increasing use of can carry out the critical functions AI applications include image and this in the areas of swarming and designated as a priority AI sector the US, China and Russia – as AI in various areas of life, the use of of a targeting cycle in a military face recognition, translation, image autonomous vehicles – including, for industrial policy in the French well as European yearnings for AI in the military is largely absent operation, including the selection geolocation and more. but not limited to, LAWS. 2018 national AI strategy. In 2019, strategic sovereignty, Europeans from the public discourse in most and engagement of targets, without AI can also support military Swarming refers to the combi- France became the first European should pay closer attention to European countries. In Germany in human intervention. The potential logistics through predictive main- nation of many systems – such as state to publish a military AI strat- military AI. It is counterproduc- particular, officials seem uncomfort- use of LAWS comes with a range of tenance based on the analysis drones, unmanned boats or tanks egy. The country’s approach to AI tive to let valid concerns about able discussing the subject, unless legal, ethical and political problems of various sensory inputs. AI- – that can act independently but is clearly geopolitical and driven by LAWS marginalize the debate on the focus is on whether and how to that are rightly being discussed in enabled weapons are also likely to in a coordinated manner. Mili- concerns over Europe and France all military AI. ban “killer robots,” or AI-enabled the United Nations. But while con- be deployed in cyberspace where tary swarms could provide new becoming tech colonies of the lethal autonomous weapon systems cern over LAWS, and work toward it allows actors to both find and capabilities, such as flying sensor United States and China. (LAWS). regulating them, is to be praised, patch up cyber vulnerabilities. Due networks, flying minefields or The UK has published neither In other countries – most notably European policymakers should not to cyberspace’s relative lack of coordinated and automated waves an overarching national nor a ULRIKE FRANKE is a policy fellow at the France, but also the UK – there is forget that military AI goes beyond physical limitations, and given that of attacks that deny the enemy a military AI strategy, but a range European Council on Foreign more expert work on the topic, but killer robots. fewer organizational changes are massed formation to fight. of documents, most notably from Relations in London, where this does not translate into a broader AI is, for example, famously good required for it, AI-enabled weapons Given these extensive areas the Defence Science and Technol- she works on emerging societal debate. Similarly, the aca- at working with big data to identify could be introduced comparatively of application and, judging from ogy Laboratory (DSTL), and the technologies in warfare. She co-hosts Sicherheitshalber demic discourse on AI in the mili- and categorize images and texts. In quickly into the cyber realm. past efforts to predict the impact Defence Ministry’s in-house think- (For safety’s sake), a German- tary focuses on developments in the a military context, AI can help sift In many areas, AI can make pro- of technologies, there is a good tank, DCDC. However, these pub- language podcast on security United States and China, and tends through massive amounts of video cesses faster, more efficient and chance the most important lications appear to primarily target and defense. to overlook Europe. footage, such as feeds recorded by cheaper. Such efficiency gains are changes to warfare caused by AI the expert community. 34 The Security Times – Policy Briefs February 2020

As multilateral as apple pie Managing a world of weaponized interdependence

BY AMRITA NARLIKAR

peaking at the Bretton Woods conference in S1944, US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau eloquently declared: “Economic aggression can have no other off- spring than war. It is as dangerous as it is futile.” His speech reflected an understanding shared by many at the time – that peace and pros- perity were indivisible. Many of the multilateral institutions, built in the aftermath of World War II, thus aimed to reduce the risk of economic warfare. The world of today, however, has generated a new set of problems, which our existing multilateral institutions are poorly equipped to deal with: most prominently, the weapon- ization of interdependence. It derives from the increased oppor- tunities available to states to use economic instruments for geo- strategic purposes. Admittedly, the use of economic statecraft goes back to ancient times, and includes sieges and blockades. But in recent years, a new phenomenon has emerged, which Henry Farrell and Abra- ham Newman call “weaponized interdependence.” Farrell and Newman focus on the interactions between network structures, state

power and global supply chains. PICTURE ALLIANCE/EVERETT COLLECTION They demonstrate that at least in The dismantling of the administrative world: The Bretton Woods Conference of 1944 established rules for economic relations and created the International Monetary Fund. certain key areas, network struc- tures have turned out to be highly further arguments, one referring growing skepticism, even from opponents’ system – had simply Monitoring Reports have encoun- most players, but these economic asymmetric, giving some states to the differences in domestic recipient countries; its human not been factored in. tered resistance by members. Yet costs could be balanced by security disproportionate power to lever- political systems, the other to rights record in Xinjiang has many The crudeness of Trump’s a major revamping of the rules is gains. age their unique positions on net- adversarial intent. activists in the West concerned; “America First” rhetoric and his necessary. This will have to include There is a rich discussion cur- work hubs in an attempt to coerce The configurations of some and Huawei’s forceful and success- angry tweets reviling the interna- an updated understanding of rently underway on the reform others. The fact that production is domestic institutions may allow ful 5G campaign in many countries tional system make it all too easy state-owned enterprises, subsidies and rejuvenation of multilateral- integrated through global supply states sitting on network hubs to has awakened Western compa- to overlook the gravity of the dan- as well as special and differential ism. To its credit, Germany, often chains means that some states exploit their positions more easily nies to the security risks that such gers posed by the weaponization treatment for developing coun- working in close cooperation with can use their dominant network than others. This is precisely the investment can pose. of interdependence – especially tries. Moreover, it will require a France, Canada and others, has positions to extract informational complaint that President Donald The postwar multilateral eco- fundamental change in the mindset taken a lead in this debate. Surpris- advantages vis-à-vis adversaries. Trump’s team has voiced most nomic system was built to handle of an organization that has always ingly, however, this debate seems Moreover, they can cut adversar- vociferously to China, but previ- quite a different set of problems. stood for trade liberalization. largely to be premised on old- ies off from network flows. Farrell ous US administrations and other It assumed some amount of like- For example, a reformed WTO school notions of mom, apple pie and Newman focus on the abil- trading partners have levied simi- mindedness and shared purpose The postwar would have to recognize and and economic interdependence. ity of the US to control financial lar objections. Multiple actors have among all members; increasing specify a wide range of conditions If multilateralism is to be made transactions and internet flows. protested against China’s ready economic interdependence and multilateral in which protectionism might be meaningful again, our leaders But we see other actors also rec- use of subsidies, domestic content shared prosperity could then considered legitimate, particularly are not going to be able to avoid ognizing the potential to exercise requirements, intellectual property strengthen and deepen these pre- economic to counter economic measures the question of how they plan control in other sectors, such as rights violations, forced technology existing affinities. The bifurcation that countries may have instituted to manage a much nastier world China’s “Made in China 2025” transfers and other means to secure of the system during the Cold War system was for security purposes. Some areas where interdependence is weap- roadmap on integrated circuits an advantage in trade. And they benefited those countries with a may need to be cordoned off from onized. This will occasionally and and semi-conductors. ascribe blame not only to the Chi- liberal, democratic and mixed- built to trade liberalization entirely – such inevitably draw them into contro- Farrell and Newman’s logic on nese government, but also to the economy orientation. It was this as digital technologies that have versies about the values they stand weaponized interdependence WTO, which has seemingly turned group that shared the gains of handle quite direct security implications. for, and the allies that share these refers to the power that is embed- a blind eye to China’s violations of international cooperation, while At a minimum, such constraints values with them. It will require ded in networked structures the spirit of the law, if not the law the Soviet bloc stood outside the a different set would result in some level of them to take sides. This, in turn, of global production. At least itself. The fact that China’s mete- system. At the end of the Cold decoupling from China and poten- will produce further decoupling, one reason why their argument oric rise has occurred in large mea- War, a combination of liberal of problems tially others. But such decoupling but will likely make for a limited deserves more attention in cur- sure as a result of the opportunities naïveté and liberal hubris led many is already underway as major play- yet more resilient multilateralism rent thinking on multilateralism the multilateral trading system has researchers and practitioners to ers – including the US and China of the like-minded. is as follows: The very economic offered it makes the “unfair” prac- expect an increasing confluence – seek greater self-sufficiency in integration that international tices all the more galling. of interests on the part of the by systemic rivals. The WTO, for critical sectors. Doing this within organizations like the World Trade There is also the issue of poten- newcomers into the system. That example, does not yet have instru- a reformed system of multilateral Organization (WTO) were sup- tial adversarial intent. China’s some actors could use the eco- ments to contend with this phe- rules could help make this process AMRITA NARLIKAR is president of the GIGA posed to promote may turn out to adventurism in South and South- nomic gains the system helps them nomenon. Even minimal attempts less haphazard, less unpredictable German Institute of Global and be a source of greater power asym- east Asia has given many in the accrue for geostrategic ends – and to facilitate greater transparency and less costly. Without a doubt, Area Studies and a professor metry and conflict. This structural region cause for concern. Its Belt that they could cut into systemic on “general economic support decoupling – even if well-managed at Hamburg University. logic can be supplemented by two and Road Initiative is attracting rivals by successfully gaming their measures” in the WTO’s Trade – will generate economic costs for

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No transparency & no dialog NATO must address the looming threat of cyberattacks on nuclear weapons systems

If this is the case, cybersecurity BY JULIA BERGHOFER measures must become more advanced in lockstep. There is oday, the risks associated consensus among NATO mem- with severe cyberattacks bers that the cybersecurity of Ton critical infrastructure nuclear weapons systems must be and military systems in general accorded the highest priority, but are drawing increased attention. the Alliance has nevertheless failed Not only are cyberattacks becom- to deal with the issue in a timely ing more frequent and more manner. This has created two professional, their destructive problems, in particular: the first capabilities are also more widely relates to the insufficient budget available than ever for state and funds allocated to cybersecurity non-state actors alike. The risk of measures at nuclear air bases in cyber interference in critical civil Europe, and the second revolves and government systems poses around the lack of a coherent a threat with incalculable con- understanding of the threat. sequences for the Euro-Atlantic As a nuclear alliance, NATO is community. confronted with an incalculable Because of their complacency, problem that could evolve rapidly most states in the Euro-Atlantic in the face of escalating hostili- region now struggle to keep pace ties. There is no time for patience. with the breathtaking develop- All Alliance members able to take ment of new technologies. Thanks action must make haste to assess also to their failure to grasp the the looming threats and implica- complexity of the situation, these tions of emerging technologies. states have no holistic or viable Simply hoping that US measures counter-strategy to address the will meet the task is not enough.

perils of cyberattacks. Any form CUMING IMAGES/IAN DPA/IKON In countries like Germany, there of misuse such as compromised is an urgent need for meaningful data, false alarms or inadvertent issues tend to evade taking action, systems built around them involv- Germany is an interesting exam- Whether modernization helps strategic discussions and sustained launches can thus have cata- suggesting instead that responsibil- ing personnel, delivery systems, ple. The Federal Republic has not keep weapons systems safe or puts dialog with the community of tech- strophic consequences. ity for the cybersecurity of nuclear early warning protocols and supply only failed to develop cybersecurity them at risk as a result of their nological experts. The lack of transparency and weapons in Europe lies solely with chains. Accordingly, a critical share institutions and effective measures, growing complexity is a matter of dialog between the military, tech the US. of funding and responsibility for it has also launched a number of debate among experts. However, experts, decision makers, security While it is true that all B61 the cybersecurity of nuclear weap- newly established and still-in-devel- military leaders argue that mod- JULIA BERGHOFER is a European Leadership organizations, scholars and pri- bombs in Europe held at six air ons systems in Europe rests on opment cyber organizations with ernization is essential in a world Network (ELN) policy fellow vate companies is a huge obstacle bases across the continent are US the shoulders of the respective poorly defined tasks. To make mat- of increasingly net-centric war- and a Younger Generation to developing a holistic counter- property, these weapons do not member states, while maintenance ters worse, these organizations must fare that requires a rapid response Leaders Network (YGLN) strategy. Indeed, even the authori- exist in a vacuum. There are entire and upgrades remain in Washing- compete with a strong private sector to events as they unfold on the project manager. ties tasked with addressing such physical, technical and institutional ton’s hands. in recruiting experts in the field. ground.

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