DOCSLIB.ORG

An Interdisciplinary Approach to Sea Level Rise

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
An Interdisciplinary Approach to Sea Level Rise Planning for Uncertainty in Bremen and Gothenburg: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Sea Level Rise Osäkerhetsplanering i Bremen och Göteborg: En interdisciplinär studie av stigande havsnivåer Degree project in strategies for sustainable development, Second Cycle AL250X, 30 credits Author: Per Björklund Supervisor: Jacob von Oelreich Examiner: Måns Nilsson Division of Environmental Strategies Research (fms) Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engine- ering School of Architecture and the Built Environment KTH Royal Institute of Technology TRITA TRITA-INFRA-FMS-EX-2016: 16 Table of Contents Abstract / Sammanfattning 3 Introduction 3 Methodology 4 Quotes, figures and text boxes 5 Relationship between theory and case study 5 Methodological limitations 6 Chapter 1: The psychology and practice of risk assessment 8 Risk as a variable in urban planning 8 General principles of risk assessment 9 Psychological heuristics 10 Heuristics relevant to the perception of risk 11 Conservatism, culture and incentives 13 The risk professional 13 The natural scientist 14 The practitioner/decision maker 15 Reducing bias in decision making 16 Chapter 2: The science of climate change and sea level rise 18 Understanding the drivers of climate change 20 How much will the climate system warm? 21 The Paris agreement and the 1.5 degree goal 23 Global sea level rise over the long term according to current scientific understanding 24 Global sea level rise in the 21st century according to current scientific understanding 27 Localizing global average sea level rise 28 Currently unknown science 29 The West Antarctic 30 Arctic Sea Ice, Greenland and the Gulf Stream 33 “The Cold Spot” and changing weather patterns 35 Chapter 3: Overview and comparison of Bremen and Gothenburg 37 Bremen, Bremerhaven and the North Sea Coast 37 The organization of coastal defense 40 Sea level rise along the German North Sea Coast 41 Future plans 42 Possible future alternatives 43 Gothenburg 45 The organization of sea level rise adaptation 46 Sea level rise along the Swedish West Coast 47 Future plans 48 Country guidelines and city plans 49 Comparative analysis 51 Conclusion 53 References 55 Interview references 65 2 Abstract This thesis examines the readiness and perception in the regions of Gothenburg and Bremen towards future sea level rise. It does so through the theoretical lens of risk psychology / policy research and of climate science research. Results are built on some of the most recent research of these fields, as well as interviews with 14 people on the local, regional and national level in Germany and Sweden. Key findings of this thesis are that both contexts struggle to deal with the great uncertainties inherent in sea level rise. On the German North Sea coast, there is long experience with sea level variation and extensive civil institutions created to deal with storm surges, dikes and sea level rise which may partially compensate for inherent vulnerability to future sea level rise in this region. The novelty of sea level rise in Gothenburg and Sweden means that it is in the process of creating similar institutions and national-regional divisions of responsibility from scratch. The great uncertainty around the pace and extent of future sea level rise is however an obstacle which may have to be overcome before a more coherent response may be developed. Keywords: Gothenburg, Bremen, Sea Level Rise, Uncertainty, Heuristics, Risk Assessment, Climate Change Adaptation, Climate Science, Earth System Science Sammanfattning Denna uppsats undersöker beredskap och uppfattningar kring framtida havsnivåhöjningar i Göteborg och Bremen. Detta görs med de teoretiska ansatserna riskpsykologi / beslutspsykologi och grundläggande klimatvetenskap. Uppsatsens resultat bygger på de senaste resultaten inom dessa fält, samt intervjuer med 14 personer på lokal, regional och nationell nivå i Tyskland och Sverige. Efter genomförd studie kan konstateras att bägge kontext har svårigheter att hantera de stora osäkerheter som havsnivåhöjningen medför. Tyska Nordsjökusten har mycket lång erfarenhet och kapabla offentliga institutioner vilka skapats för att hantera skyddsvallar, sjunkande landnivåer och stormfloder, vilket balanserar det prekära läge som området annars står inför. I Göteborg och i Sverige är havsnivåhöjning något fundamentalt nytt, vilket innebär att man nu försöker skapa liknande institutioner och ansvarsfördelning mellan nationellt och regionalt som de Bremen och Tyskland redan har. Ett hinder för detta är de stora osäkerheter som råder kring hastighet och absolut nivå på framtida havsnivåhöjningar. Dessa osäkerheter kan komma behöva reduceras innan problemet börjar hanteras på ett mer samordnat sätt. Nyckelord: Göteborg, Bremen, Havsnivåhöjning, Osäkerhet, Heuristik, Riskbedömning, Klimatanpassning, Klimatvetenskap. Introduction “When we look at any of the major impacts of climate change, they one way or another come through water… So it will be no exaggeration to claim that climate change is really in fact about hydrological change.” Richard Damania, lead author of the World Bank report “High and dry, Climate Change, Water and the Economy” (Mooney 2016). 70% of our planet is covered by water, and an entire continent (Antarctica) is covered by 30 million cubic kilometers of ice. Were all the great glaciers on earth to melt, it would equal 70 meters of average global sea level rise (NSIDC 2015a). But how much, and how quickly, may it melt? When studying adaptation, it is unavoidable to encounter the concepts of risk and uncertainty. If anything can be said with certainty, it is that climate change mitigation will not be completely successful or unsuccessful. Rather, it will be somewhere in between. Furthermore, whatever success we achieve will have different impact in 3 different regions, which may or may not be ready to deal with them. While all climate change is in some ways directly or indirectly about water, the study of sea level rise is obviously so. This thesis is about how two regions (the sedimentary and sinking German North Sea coast and the rocky and rising Swedish West Coast) deals with the uncertainty that surrounds it, and what differences and parallels there are between the port cities of Bremen and Gothenburg. On first glance, this comparison may seem curious, as there are quite a few obvious differences. But there are many similarities as well. They are of similar size, are economically dependent on trade and shipping, and both are notable for their vulnerability to sea level rise within their countries. This combination of similarity and difference seemed to promise a dynamic final result. The goal of this thesis is to uncover what sort of assumptions about the future that exist in these two contexts, compare them, and assess them in light of risk psychology, policy research and climate science research. This interdisciplinary approach was decided upon as a way of making this thesis applicable not only in the context of Bremen and Gothenburg, but also as more general examples of the world-wide challenge of sea level rise and universal psychological tendencies when it comes to how humans tries to deal with risk and uncertainty. Methodology When it comes to thinking about how the world will respond to projected changes in the climate…it is important to guard against a failure of imagination… Failure to think about how climate change might impact globally interrelated systems could be stovepipe thinking. (King et al 2015: 23) This thesis has an interdisciplinary approach1, blending insights from areas such as urban planning, history, geology, intelligence studies, risk psychology, social anthropology and earth system science / climate science in order to study adaptation to sea level rise in a holistic manner. Social anthropology and closely related fields such as Intelligence Studies and Development Studies has been especially important2. There it is not uncommon to shape the approach after what is being studied and both put a heavy emphasis on contextual information. In the case of this thesis, it was deemed that the critical context was (1) The regions of Bremen and Gothenburg, (2) The planners, scientists and risk-analysts set to improve and protect them, and (3) The science of predicting future sea level rise. While taking an interdisciplinary approach always risks spreading attention too thinly over too many subjects, this concern must be balanced against the nest of complexity-upon-complexity that is future human-climate interaction. A very important inspiration has been the approach taken by the report “Climate Change: A Risk Assessment” (King et al 2015). The principles behind that report can be found on page 9, and helped guide how to write chapter 1 and 2. Wilhelm Agrell’s book Konsten att gissa rätt, underättelsevetenskapens grunder (The art of guessing right: The foundations of Intelligence Studies) (Agrell 1998) has been very useful for helping provide some of the tools necessary for investigating the relationship between producers and consumers of uncertain information (such as climate science and risk assessments). This thesis takes the point of view that the sort of methodical thinking practiced by risk professionals is 1 ”Interdiciplinary” being defined as: integrating knowledge and methods from different disciplines, using a real synthesis of approaches (Stember 1991). 2 Works of particular importance include ”Europe and the People Without History” (Wolf 1982), ”City: Urbanism and its End” (Rae 2005), ”Seeing Like
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Oceans' Circulation Hasn't Been This Sluggish in 1,000 Years. That's
    The oceans’ circulation hasn’t been this sluggish in 1,000 years. That’s bad news. - The Washington Post 4/12/18, 10:45 AM The oceans’ circulation hasn’t been this sluggish in 1,000 years. That’s bad news. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/…-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?utm_term=.21f99d101bf8 Page 1 of 10 The oceans’ circulation hasn’t been this sluggish in 1,000 years. That’s bad news. - The Washington Post 4/12/18, 10:45 AM (Levke Caesar/Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/…-sluggish-in-1000-years-thats-bad-news/?utm_term=.21f99d101bf8 Page 2 of 10 The oceans’ circulation hasn’t been this sluggish in 1,000 years. That’s bad news. - The Washington Post 4/12/18, 10:45 AM The Atlantic Ocean circulation that carries warmth into the Northern Hemisphere’s high latitudes is slowing down because of climate change, a team of scientists asserted Wednesday, suggesting one of the most feared consequences is already coming to pass. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has declined in strength by 15 percent since the mid-20th century to a “new record low,” the scientists conclude in a peer-reviewed study published in the journal Nature. That’s a decrease of 3 million cubic meters of water per second, the equivalent of nearly 15 Amazon rivers. The AMOC brings warm water from the equator up toward the Atlantic’s northern reaches and cold water back down through the deep ocean.
    [Show full text]
  • Can Animal Data Translate to Innovations Necessary for a New
    Green BMC Medical Ethics (2015) 16:53 DOI 10.1186/s12910-015-0043-7 DEBATE Open Access Can animal data translate to innovations necessary for a new era of patient-centred and individualised healthcare? Bias in preclinical animal research Susan Bridgwood Green Abstract Background: The public and healthcare workers have a high expectation of animal research which they perceive as necessary to predict the safety and efficacy of drugs before testing in clinical trials. However, the expectation is not always realised and there is evidence that the research often fails to stand up to scientific scrutiny and its 'predictive value' is either weak or absent. Discussion: Problems with the use of animals as models of humans arise from a variety of biases and systemic failures including: 1) bias and poor practice in research methodology and data analysis; 2) lack of transparency in scientific assessment and regulation of the research; 3) long-term denial of weaknesses in cross-species translation; 4) profit-driven motives overriding patient interests; 5) lack of accountability of expenditure on animal research; 6) reductionist-materialism in science which tends to dictate scientific inquiry and control the direction of funding in biomedical research. Summary: Bias in animal research needs to be addressed before medical research and healthcare decision-making can be more evidence-based. Research funding may be misdirected on studying 'disease mechanisms' in animals that cannot be replicated outside tightly controlled laboratory conditions, and without sufficient critical evaluation animal research may divert attention away from avenues of research that hold promise for human health. The potential for harm to patients and trial volunteers from reliance on biased animal data1 requires measures to improve its conduct, regulation and analysis.
    [Show full text]
  • Curriculum Reform at Tertiary Level As Key to Graduate Employability and Entrepreneurship in Lesotho
    Journal of US-China Public Administration, June 2017, Vol. 14, No. 6, 339-347 doi: 10.17265/1548-6591/2017.06.005 D DAVID PUBLISHING Curriculum Reform at Tertiary Level as Key to Graduate Employability and Entrepreneurship in Lesotho T. Mukurunge, N. Tlali Limkokwing University of Creative Technology, Maseru, Lesotho The curriculum in Lesotho at tertiary level does not adequately prepare graduates for the employment world, nor for self-made business people. The main emphasis is theoretical and academic excellence rather than for production in industry or for empowerment with entrepreneurial skills. This is a problem because Lesotho does not have an industrial power base for the economy to employ a big number of tertiary graduates. The industries that offer employment to citizens are mainly the Chinese-owned textile industries and taxi/transport industry, or the South African mines and farms which require cheap labour and not tertiary graduates. Lesotho therefore requires an education that produces graduates who can create employment for other primarily or highly skilled technocrats who will be able to be employed above the level of mere labourers in the sophisticated economy of South Africa. This study therefore sought to establish what the Ministry of Education and tertiary institutions are doing about this scenario, whether they have plans for curriculum review that will be aligned towards producing entrepreneurs and technocrats for the economic development of Lesotho. This research will benefit the authorities responsible for development through small businesses, the employment sector, as well as tertiary institutions in curriculum review. Keywords: curriculum, curriculum review, entrepreneurship, tertiary institutions, technocrats Curriculum is a planned and guided learning experiences carried out in the institution for the purpose of living a useful and productive life in our contemporary society today (Ogwu, Omeje, & Nwokenna, 2014, p.
    [Show full text]
  • Estudios Públicos 141, Revista De Políticas Públicas
    DEBATE LA DIVERSIDAD POLÍTICA VA A MEJORAR LA CIENCIA DE LA PSICOLOGÍA SOCIAL* José L. Duarte Jarret T. Crawford Universidad Estatal de Arizona The College of New Jersey [email protected] [email protected] Charlotta Stern Jonathan Haidt U niversidad de Estocolmo Universidad de Nueva York [email protected] [email protected] Lee Jussim Philip E. Tetlock U niversidad de Rutgers U niversidad de Pensilvania [email protected] [email protected]. wwww.cepchile.cl RESUMEN: Los psicólogos han demostrado el valor de la diversidad —en especial, la diversidad de puntos de vista— para potenciar la creatividad, la capacidad de descubrimiento y la solución de proble- mas. Pero un tipo clave de diversidad sigue ausente en la psicología académica, en general, y en la psicología social, en particular: la diversidad política. Este artículo revisa la evidencia disponible y halla elementos que respaldan cuatro afirmaciones: 1) La psicología * Publicado originalmente en Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38 (2015). Traduci- mos aquí, con la debida autorización, el artículo original y una selección de los nu- merosos comentarios críticos que acompañaron su publicación en dicha revista. La traducción fue realizada por Cristóbal Santa Cruz para Estudios Públicos. Todos los autores contribuyeron de manera sustancial y son nombrados en orden inverso según su antigüedad académica. Ellos agradecen a Bill von Hippel, Michael Huemer, Jon Krosnick, Greg Mitchell, Richard Nisbett y Bobbie Spellman por sus comentarios a versiones preliminares de este artículo, si bien ello no implica nece- sariamente que suscriban las opiniones expresadas en este artículo. Estudios Públicos, 141 (verano 2016), 173-248 ISSN: 0716-1115 (impresa), 0718-3089 (en línea) 174 ESTUDIOS PÚBLICOS, 141 (verano 2016), 173-248 académica solía tener una considerable diversidad política, pero la ha perdido casi por completo en los últimos 50 años.
    [Show full text]
  • STATS 305 Notes1
    STATS 305 Notes1 Art Owen2 Autumn 2013 1The class notes were beautifully scribed by Eric Min. He has kindly allowed his notes to be placed online for stat 305 students. Reading these at leasure, you will spot a few errors and omissions due to the hurried nature of scribing and probably my handwriting too. Reading them ahead of class will help you understand the material as the class proceeds. 2Department of Statistics, Stanford University. 0.0: Chapter 0: 2 Contents 1 Overview 9 1.1 The Math of Applied Statistics . .9 1.2 The Linear Model . .9 1.2.1 Other Extensions . 10 1.3 Linearity . 10 1.4 Beyond Simple Linearity . 11 1.4.1 Polynomial Regression . 12 1.4.2 Two Groups . 12 1.4.3 k Groups . 13 1.4.4 Different Slopes . 13 1.4.5 Two-Phase Regression . 14 1.4.6 Periodic Functions . 14 1.4.7 Haar Wavelets . 15 1.4.8 Multiphase Regression . 15 1.5 Concluding Remarks . 16 2 Setting Up the Linear Model 17 2.1 Linear Model Notation . 17 2.2 Two Potential Models . 18 2.2.1 Regression Model . 18 2.2.2 Correlation Model . 18 2.3 TheLinear Model . 18 2.4 Math Review . 19 2.4.1 Quadratic Forms . 20 3 The Normal Distribution 23 3.1 Friends of N (0; 1)...................................... 23 3.1.1 χ2 .......................................... 23 3.1.2 t-distribution . 23 3.1.3 F -distribution . 24 3.2 The Multivariate Normal . 24 3.2.1 Linear Transformations . 25 3.2.2 Normal Quadratic Forms .
    [Show full text]
  • Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic As Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test
    Working Memory, Cognitive Miserliness and Logic as Predictors of Performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test Edward J. N. Stupple ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Maggie Gale ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Christopher R. Richmond ([email protected]) Centre for Psychological Research, University of Derby Kedleston Road, Derby. DE22 1GB Abstract Most participants respond that the answer is 10 cents; however, a slower and more analytic approach to the The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) was devised to measure problem reveals the correct answer to be 5 cents. the inhibition of heuristic responses to favour analytic ones. The CRT has been a spectacular success, attracting more Toplak, West and Stanovich (2011) demonstrated that the than 100 citations in 2012 alone (Scopus). This may be in CRT was a powerful predictor of heuristics and biases task part due to the ease of administration; with only three items performance - proposing it as a metric of the cognitive miserliness central to dual process theories of thinking. This and no requirement for expensive equipment, the practical thesis was examined using reasoning response-times, advantages are considerable. There have, moreover, been normative responses from two reasoning tasks and working numerous correlates of the CRT demonstrated, from a wide memory capacity (WMC) to predict individual differences in range of tasks in the heuristics and biases literature (Toplak performance on the CRT. These data offered limited support et al., 2011) to risk aversion and SAT scores (Frederick, for the view of miserliness as the primary factor in the CRT.
    [Show full text]
  • Academic Success Factors Influencing Linguistically Diverse and Native English Speaking Associate Degree Nursing Students Josie Lynn Veal Marquette University
    Marquette University e-Publications@Marquette Dissertations (2009 -) Dissertations, Theses, and Professional Projects Academic Success Factors Influencing Linguistically Diverse and Native English Speaking Associate Degree Nursing Students Josie Lynn Veal Marquette University Recommended Citation Veal, Josie Lynn, "Academic Success Factors Influencing Linguistically Diverse and Native English Speaking Associate Degree Nursing Students" (2012). Dissertations (2009 -). Paper 242. http://epublications.marquette.edu/dissertations_mu/242 ACADEMIC SUCCESS FACTORS INFLUENCING LINGUISTICALLY DIVERSE AND NATIVE ENGLISH SPEAKING ASSOCIATE DEGREE NURSING STUDENTS by Josie Veal, MSN, RN, FNP-BC A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School, Marquette University, in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Milwaukee, Wisconsin December 2012 ABSTRACT ACADEMIC SUCCESS FACTORS INFLUENCING LINGUISTICALLY DIVERSE AND NATIVE ENGLISH SPEAKING ASSOCIATE DEGREE NURSING STUDENTS Josie Veal, MSN, RN, FNP-BC Marquette University, 2012 To address the healthcare needs of vulnerable populations, nursing educators should evaluate educational preparedness and identify which factors influence a successive academic trajectory in nursing school. A prospective design was used to determine the relationships and differences among the anatomy and physiology course grade, self-efficacy, linguistic diversity, language acculturation, and components of the National League for Nursing pre-admission exam for registered nurses and first semester nursing course grades of linguistically diverse and native English speaking associate degree nursing students. A relationship exists between the PAX-RN composite score, anatomy mean grade, language diversity, and general self-efficacy score, the Nursing Pharmacology and Nursing Fundamentals course grades for associate degree nursing students. The PAX-RN composite score and the AP mean grade were related to all first semester courses for associate degree students.
    [Show full text]
  • Surface Predictor of Overturning Circulation and Heat Content Change In
    1 Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in 2 the subpolar North Atlantic 3 4 Damien. G. Desbruyères*1 ; Herlé Mercier2 ; Guillaume Maze1 ; Nathalie Daniault2 5 6 1. Ifremer, University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et 7 Spatiale, IUEM, Ifremer centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, 29280, France 8 9 2. University of Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et 10 Spatiale, IUEM, Ifremer centre de Bretagne, Plouzané, 29280, France 11 Corresponding author: Damien Desbruyères ([email protected] ) 12 13 Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere 14 temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational data sets to 15 validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC 16 variability at low-frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near- 17 future (2019-2022) North Atlantic state. An easily-observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold 18 transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45°N by 5-6 19 years and to drive its 1993-2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme 20 intensities for the early 2020’s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal 21 warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming 22 conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability 23 and its impact on ocean temperature brings new keys for understanding and predicting climatic conditions 24 in the North Atlantic and beyond.
    [Show full text]
  • Academic Bias in Language Testing: a Construct Validity Critique of the IPT I Oral Grades K-6 Spanish Second Edition (IPT Spanish)
    86 Academic Bias in Language Testing: A Construct Validity Critique of the IPT I Oral Grades K-6 Spanish Second Edition (IPT Spanish) Jeff MacSwan Arizona State University Kate Mahoney State University of New York Abstract Construct validity concerns for the IPT I Oral Grades K-6 Spanish Second (GLWLRQ ,376 DVDPHDVXUHRIQDWLYHRUDOODQJXDJHSUR¿FLHQF\DUHH[DPLQHG 7KHH[DPLQDWLRQLQFOXGHGGHVFULELQJDVXEVHWRILWHPVWKDWFRQWULEXWHVPRVW WRRYHUDOOVFRUHDQGQDWLYHODQJXDJHSUR¿FLHQF\GHVLJQDWLRQ&RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQWKLVVXEVHWRILWHPVDQGWKHRYHUDOOVFRUHDUHFDOFXODWHG(PSLULFDO evidence suggests that if a student cannot or does not answer four questions from the second section in a complete sentence, then the student will either EHODEHOHGDVDQRQVSHDNHURUDOLPLWHGVSHDNHULQWKHQDWLYHODQJXDJH7KH authors argue that the requirement that speakers respond in complete sentences UHÀHFWVDQDwYHYLHZRIODQJXDJHSUR¿FLHQF\LQFRQVLVWHQWZLWKOLQJXLVWLF research, and characterize the requirement as “academic bias,” that is, a prejudice resulting from a confusion of academic content knowledge related to language arts with actual linguistic ability, having the result of arbitrarily IDYRULQJPHPEHUVRIWKHHGXFDWHGFODVVHV7KHDXWKRUVFRQFOXGHWKDWWKH,376 should not be used for Spanish language assessment with Spanish-speaking FKLOGUHQ Introduction A number of teachers, policy makers and educational researchers have accepted, propagated, and even institutionalized the belief that some VFKRRODJHFKLOGUHQKDYHQRODQJXDJH,QWKH/RV$QJHOHV8QL¿HG6FKRRO 87 District, for instance, the Los Angeles Times reported
    [Show full text]
  • The Tale of a Surprisingly Cold Blob in the North Atlantic
    VARIATIONSUS CLIVAR VARIATIONS CUS CLIVAR lim ity a bil te V cta ariability & Predi Spring 2016 • Vol. 14, No. 2 A Tale of Two Blobs The evolution and known atmospheric Editors: forcing mechanisms behind the 2013-2015 Kristan Uhlenbrock & Mike Patterson North Pacific warm anomalies From 2013 to 2015, the scientific 1 2 community and the media were Dillon J. Amaya Nicholas E. Bond , enthralled with two anomalous Arthur J. Miller1, and Michael J. DeFlorio3 sea surface temperature events, both getting the moniker 1Scripps Institution of Oceanography the “Blob,” although one was 2 warm and one was cold. These University of Washington 3 events occurred during a Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology period of record-setting global mean surface temperatures. This edition focuses on the timing and extent, possible mechanisms, and impacts ear-to-year variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices of these unusual ocean heat Ygenerate significant interest throughout the general public and the scientific anomalies, and what we might community due to the sometimes destructive nature of this climate mode. For expect in the future as climate example, so-called “Godzilla” ENSOs can generate billions of dollars in damages changes. from the US agricultural industry alone due to unanticipated flooding or drought The “Warm Blob” feature (Adams et al. 1999). However, in the winter of 2013/2014, North Pacific sea surface appeared in the North Pacific temperature (SST) anomalies exceeded three standard deviations above the mean during winter 2013 and was over a large region, shifting focus away from the tropics and onto the extratropics first identified by Nick Bond, as the associated atmospheric circulation patterns helped exacerbate the most University of Washington.
    [Show full text]
  • Liberal Bias in the Legal Academy: Overstated and Undervalued Michael Vitiello Pacific Cgem Orge School of Law
    University of the Pacific Scholarly Commons McGeorge School of Law Scholarly Articles McGeorge School of Law Faculty Scholarship 2007 Liberal Bias in the Legal Academy: Overstated and Undervalued Michael Vitiello Pacific cGeM orge School of Law Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.pacific.edu/facultyarticles Part of the Legal Education Commons Recommended Citation Michael Vitiello, Liberal Bias in the Legal Academy: Overstated and Undervalued, 77 Miss. L.J. 507 (2007). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the McGeorge School of Law Faculty Scholarship at Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in McGeorge School of Law Scholarly Articles by an authorized administrator of Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. LIBERAL BIAS IN THE LEGAL ACADEMY: OVERSTATED AND UNDERVALUED Michael Vitiello * I. INTRODUCTION By many accounts, universities are hotbeds of left-wing radicalism. 1 Often fueled by overreaching administrators, right- wing bloggers and radio talk show hosts rail against the sup- pression of free speech by the "politically correct" left wing. 2 Over the past twenty years, numerous and mostly conservative commentators have published books decrying radical professors and their efforts to force their own political vision on their stu- dents. 3 Most recently , former Communist turned hard-right • Distinguished Pr ofesso r and Scholar, Pacific McGeorge School of Law; B.A. Swarthmore, 1969; J.D . University of Penn sylvania, 1974. I want to extend special thanks to a wonderful group of research assistants who ran down obscure footnotes and converted oddball citation s into Bluebook form-thanks to Cameron Desmond, Oona Mallett, Alison Terry, Jennifer L.
    [Show full text]
  • Nature-Inspired Metaheuristic Algorithms for Finding Efficient
    Nature-Inspired Metaheuristic Algorithms for Finding Efficient Experimental Designs Weng Kee Wong Department of Biostatistics Fielding School of Public Health October 19, 2012 DAE 2012 Department of Statistics University of Georgia October 17-20th 2012 Weng Kee Wong (Department of Biostatistics [email protected] School of Public Health ) October19,2012 1/50 Two Upcoming Statistics Conferences at UCLA Western Northern American Region (WNAR 2013) June 16-19 2013 http://www.wnar.org Weng Kee Wong (Dept. of Biostatistics [email protected] of Public Health ) October19,2012 2/50 Two Upcoming Statistics Conferences at UCLA Western Northern American Region (WNAR 2013) June 16-19 2013 http://www.wnar.org The 2013 Spring Research Conference (SRC) on Statistics in Industry and Technology June 20-22 2013 http://www.stat.ucla.edu/ hqxu/src2013 Weng Kee Wong (Dept. of Biostatistics [email protected] of Public Health ) October19,2012 2/50 Two Upcoming Statistics Conferences at UCLA Western Northern American Region (WNAR 2013) June 16-19 2013 http://www.wnar.org The 2013 Spring Research Conference (SRC) on Statistics in Industry and Technology June 20-22 2013 http://www.stat.ucla.edu/ hqxu/src2013 Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Bel Air, Westwood, Wilshire Corridor Weng Kee Wong (Dept. of Biostatistics [email protected] of Public Health ) October19,2012 2/50 Two Upcoming Statistics Conferences at UCLA Western Northern American Region (WNAR 2013) June 16-19 2013 http://www.wnar.org The 2013 Spring Research Conference (SRC) on Statistics in Industry and Technology June 20-22 2013 http://www.stat.ucla.edu/ hqxu/src2013 Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Bel Air, Westwood, Wilshire Corridor Close to the Pacific Ocean Weng Kee Wong (Dept.
    [Show full text]