Survey Methodology December 2009
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Catalogue no. 12-001-X Survey Methodology December 2009 Statistics Statistique Canada Canada How to obtain more information For information about this product or the wide range of services and data available from Statistics Canada, visit our website at www.statcan.gc.ca, e-mail us at [email protected], or telephone us, Monday to Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., at the following numbers: Statistics Canada’s National Contact Centre Toll-free telephone (Canada and United States): Inquiries line 1-800-263-1136 National telecommunications device for the hearing impaired 1-800-363-7629 Fax line 1-877-287-4369 Local or international calls: Inquiries line 1-613-951-8116 Fax line 1-613-951-0581 Depository Services Program Inquiries line 1-800-635-7943 Fax line 1-800-565-7757 To access and order this product This product, Catalogue no. 12-001-X, is available free in electronic format. 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December 2009 Catalogue no. 12-001-XIE ISSN 1492-0921 Catalogue no. 12-001-XPB ISSN 0714-0045 Frequency: semi-annual Ottawa Cette publication est disponible en français sur demande (no 12-001-X au catalogue). Note of appreciation Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada, the citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other institutions. Accurate and timely statistical information could not be produced without their continued cooperation and goodwill. SURVEY METHODOLOGY A Journal Published by Statistics Canada Survey Methodology is indexed in The ISI Web of knowledge (Web of science), The Survey Statistician, Statistical Theory and Methods Abstracts and SRM Database of Social Research Methodology, Erasmus University and is referenced in the Current Index to Statistics, and Journal Contents in Qualitative Methods. MANAGEMENT BOARD Chairman J. Kovar Members J. Gambino J. Kovar Past Chairmen D. Royce (2006-2009) J. Latimer G.J. Brackstone (1986-2005) H. Mantel R. Platek (1975-1986) S. Fortier (Production Manager) EDITORIAL BOARD Editor J. Kovar, Statistics Canada Past Editor M.P. Singh (1975-2005) Deputy Editor H. Mantel, Statistics Canada Associate Editors J.M. Brick, Westat Inc. T.J. Rao, Indian Statistical Institute P. Cantwell, U.S. Bureau of the Census J. Reiter, Duke University J.L. Eltinge, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics L.-P. Rivest, Université Laval W.A. Fuller, Iowa State University N. Schenker, National Center for Health Statistics J. Gambino, Statistics Canada F.J. Scheuren, National Opinion Research Center M.A. Hidiroglou, Statistics Canada P. do N. Silva, University of Southampton D. Judkins, Westat Inc E. Stasny, Ohio State University D. Kasprzyk, Mathematica Policy Research D. Steel, University of Wollongong P. Kott, National Agricultural Statistics Service L. Stokes, Southern Methodist University P. Lahiri, JPSM, University of Maryland M. Thompson, University of Waterloo P. Lavallée, Statistics Canada Y. Tillé, Université de Neuchâtel G. Nathan, Hebrew University V.J. Verma, Università degli Studi di Siena J. Opsomer, Colorado State University K.M. Wolter, Iowa State University D. Pfeffermann, Hebrew University C. Wu, University of Waterloo N.G.N. Prasad, University of Alberta A. Zaslavsky, Harvard University J.N.K. Rao, Carleton University Assistant Editors J.-F. Beaumont, P. Dick, S. Godbout, D. Haziza, Z. Patak, S. Rubin-Bleuer and W. Yung, Statistics Canada EDITORIAL POLICY Survey Methodology publishes articles dealing with various aspects of statistical development relevant to a statistical agency, such as design issues in the context of practical constraints, use of different data sources and collection techniques, total survey error, survey evaluation, research in survey methodology, time series analysis, seasonal adjustment, demographic studies, data integration, estimation and data analysis methods, and general survey systems development. The emphasis is placed on the development and evaluation of specific methodologies as applied to data collection or the data themselves. All papers will be refereed. However, the authors retain full responsibility for the contents of their papers and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Board or of Statistics Canada. Submission of Manuscripts Survey Methodology is published twice a year. Authors are invited to submit their articles in English or French in electronic form, preferably in Word to the Editor, ([email protected], Statistics Canada, 150 Tunney’s Pasture Driveway, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1A 0T6). For formatting instructions, please see the guidelines provided in the journal and on the web site (www.statcan.gc.ca). Subscription Rates The price of printed versions of Survey Methodology (Catalogue No. 12-001-XPB) is CDN $58 per year. The price excludes Canadian sales taxes. Additional shipping charges apply for delivery outside Canada: United States, CDN $12 ($6 × 2 issues); Other Countries, CDN $20 ($10 × 2 issues). A reduced price is available to members of the American Statistical Association, the International Association of Survey Statisticians, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Statistical Society of Canada and l’Association des statisticiennes et statisticiens du Québec. Electronic versions are available on Statistics Canada’s web site: www.statcan.gc.ca. Survey Methodology A Journal Published by Statistics Canada Volume 35, Number 2, December 2009 Contents In this issue ................................................................................................................................................................................... 121 Waksberg Invited Paper Series Graham Kalton Methods for oversampling rare subpopulations in social surveys ................................................................................ 125 Regular Papers Andreas Quatember A standardization of randomized response strategies.................................................................................................... 143 Xiaojian Xu and Pierre Lavallée Treatments for link nonresponse in indirect sampling................................................................................................... 153 Damião N. da Silva and Jean D. Opsomer Nonparametric propensity weighting for survey nonresponse through local polynomial regression ........................ 165 Jan van den Brakel and Sabine Krieg Estimation of the monthly unemployment rate through structural time series modelling in a rotating panel design ...................................................................................................................................................................... 177 Li-Chun Zhang Estimates for small area compositions subjected to informative missing data ............................................................ 191 Debora F. Souza, Fernando A.S. Moura and Helio S. Migon Small area population prediction via hierarchical models............................................................................................. 203 Jun Shao and Katherine J. Thompson Variance estimation in the presence of nonrespondents