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Wojciech Ostrowski Phd Thesis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egime maintenance in post-Soviet Kazakhstan: the case of the regime and oil industry relationship (1991-2005) Wojciech Ostrowski Submitted to the School of International Relations and the Graduate School of the University of St Andrews in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy June 2007 I, Wojciech Ostrowski, hereby certify that this thesis, which is approximately 100,000 words in length, has been written by me, that it is the record of work carried out by me and that it has not been submitted in any previous application for a higher degree. Date ………… Signature of Candidate ……………………………. I was admitted as a research student in September 2003 and as a candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in September 2003; the higher study for which this is a record was carried out in the University of St Andrews between 2003 and 2007. Date ………… Signature of Candidate ……………………………. I hereby certify that the candidate has fulfilled the conditions of the Resolution and Regulations appropriate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of St Andrews and that the candidate is qualified to submit this thesis in application for that degree. Date ………… Signature of Supervisor …………………………… II In submitting this thesis to the University of St Andrews I understand that I am giving permission for it to be made available for use in accordance with the regulations of the University Library for the time being in force, subject to any copyright vested in the work not being affected thereby. I also understand that the title and abstract will be published, and that a copy of the work may be made and supplied to any bona fide library or research worker, that my thesis will be electronically accessible for personal or research use, and that the library has the right to migrate my thesis into new electronic forms as required to ensure continued access to the thesis. I have obtained any third-party copyright permissions that may be required in order to allow such access and migration. Date ………… Signature of Candidate ……………………………. III ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation is the result of many years of my work and has only been possible due to the support of so many people over that time. To begin with, I would like to thank Dr Sally N. Cummings, my supervisor, who believed in this project and supported me along the way. The conversations I had with her were not only crucial to seeing through this PhD, but also enhanced my understanding of political science. Especially, she challenged me to think differently about the processes of transition in post-communist countries – a subject which I feel strongly about. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Committee for Central and Inner Asia at the Faculty of Oriental Studies in Cambridge towards the costs of the fieldwork in Kazakhstan. In the country itself I would like to thank Władysław Zakrzewski, my companion, whose help with every aspect of the fieldwork has been invaluable. Michał Greczyło’s help was essential in arranging accommodation in Atyrau and Astana. During the time in Kazakhstan I received moral support via Skype from Marcin Pawłowski, Tomasz Arciszewski and Maciek Adamek. I owe my debt to my parents, Irena and Jan Ostrowscy who awakened my primary interest in politics and who unconditionally supported me throughout my entire studies. Without my sister, Dorota Ostrowska I would never have come to Britain in the first place and pursued what interested me. Most of all I would not have committed this leap of faith and begun a PhD without her encouragement. My fiancée Tessa Hauswedell accompanied me on every step of researching and writing this thesis. She not only gave me much needed support on a day to day basis but also patiently proofread this thesis at different stages and discussed them with me. Completion of this thesis would not have been possible without her. I acknowledge the work of Ranjan Chaudhuri for the final proofreading of this thesis. I would also like to thank my friend Denis Maeder for all the conversations over the years which continuously broaden my understanding of politics and history. Finally, I thank and salute the New Globe crowd, and they know who they are. IV Dla Mamy i Taty (For Mum and Dad) V ABSTRACT The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the ways in which the authoritarian regime in post-Soviet Kazakhstan maintained itself in power from 1991 until 2005. This study endeavours to uncover the palette of the regime’s methods by analysing the ways in which it went about controlling the oil industry – an industry with which the political and economical future of Kazakhstan is inseparably intertwined. The empirical section of this study investigates the interplay between the regime and the actors located in and around two cores: the National Oil Company and the oil-rich areas. This thesis focuses in particular on instances where players involved with the oil industry, whether directly or indirectly, attempted to challenge the regime’s authority in those two centres either due to greed or grievances. It is argued that these moments of crisis reveal the regime’s maintenance techniques, and can precipitate the deployment of new methods of maintenance in response to them. In order to account for the techniques that the Kazakh ruling regime applied in structuring its relationships with the oil industry, this thesis shifts the emphasis from the prevalent zhuz-horde, tribe, and clan-based approaches to Kazakh politics towards formal (corporatism) and informal (patron-client) mechanisms of control. VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Map of Kazakhstan IX Introduction 1 1. The Kazakh regime 2. The politics of oil 3. Outline of the chapters Chapter 1: The oil industry and techniques of regime maintenance 14 1.The oil industry: battlegrounds and key players 1.1. National Oil Companies (NOCs) 1.2. The oil-rich areas 2. Techniques of regime maintenance: zhuz, tribe, and clan 3. Alternative techniques of regime maintenance 4. Formal techniques: corporatism 4.1. The Soviet Union and corporatism 4.2. Quasi-corporatism 5. Informal techniques: patron-client relationships 5.1. The Soviet Union and patron-clientelism 5.2. Neo-patrimonial regimes 6. Researching the Kazakh oil industry Chapter 2: The Kazakh oil industry in transition: de-formalising formal relations 56 1. The Kazakh oil industry in the Soviet era 2. The Kazakh oil industry after independence: challenges (1991–1994) 2.1. The NOC Kazakhstanmunaigaz 2.2. Peripheries 3. The Kazakh oil industry after independence: privatisation (1994–1997) 3.1. Setting the stage for privatisation 3.2. Privatisation and the NOC KazakhOil 3.3. After privatisation (clients and control) 4. The Kazakh oil industry after independence: the president’s company (1997–2005) 4.1. The young oligarchs’ challenge 4.2. The NOC KazMunaiGas and Nazarbayev’s family Chapter 3: Strengthening the informal ties: the Kazakhization of the oil industry 110 1. Containing mobilisation in the north and Russian–Kazakh relationships 1.1. The northern autonomous movements’ emergence 1.2. Nazarbayev’s response: a mixed political system and a pact with Russia 2. The Kazakh oil-supporting industry 2.1. During and after the Soviet Union 2.2. Nurlan Balgymbayev and Kazakhization 3. The Kazakh NOC 3.1. Kazakhization 3.2. Unintended outcomes 3.3. Paying the price VII Chapter 4: Controlling the oil-rich regions: the genesis of the co-operation 146 between the regime and foreign oil companies 1. The oil-rich regions and foreign oil companies 1.1. Early elections and discontent in the Atyrau region 1.2. The regime’s response: shifting the responsibility 1.3. Imangali Tasmagambetov and pacts with foreign oil companies 2. Continuing playing the blame game: the case of local labour 2.1. Non-western sub-contracting companies 2.2. A new approach? Chapter 5: The balancing act: the case of local content policy 173 1. Local interest groups and their discontents 1.1. Local interest groups in the oil-rich regions: the case of the Atyrau region 1.2. Discontent 2. Nazarbayev’s response: enforcing local content policy and rapprochement 2.1. Enforcing local content policy 2.2. Escalation 2.3. Rapprochement in the times of ‘crises’ 3. Co-operating with foreign oil companies 3.1. Local companies 3.2. Local companies and foreign oil companies Chapter 6: Beyond the 1990s: quasi-formal relationships and consolidation 215 1. Kazakhgate 1.1. Crises and their containment 1.2. The impact of Kazakhgate: the case of small and medium businesses 1.3. Enduring change or mirage? 2. Kazakhstan versus foreign oil companies 2.1. Tengiz 2.2. Kashagan 2.3. PetroKazakhstan and CNPC Conclusion 253 1. The Kazakh regime-oil industry relationship 2. A soft neo-patrimonial regime 3. Oil, regime maintenance and development Appendices 263 Bibliography 281 VIII Map of Kazakhstan IX Introduction Aid practitioners and policy makers looking at politics in a country that has recently moved away from authoritarianism should not start asking, ‘How is its democratic transition going?’ They should instead formulate a more open-ended query, ‘What is happening politically?’ Insisting on the former approach leads to optimistic assumptions that often shunt the analysis down a blind alley.
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