February 2018 The Security Times 25

SECURITY CHALLENGES PUTIN FOREVER? ’s perennial leader is bent on completing his country’s return to superpower status and recasting the global order in its favor

BY KATJA GLOGER the new Russia; it is the fourth In this sense, Putin's Russia Targeted weakening of Europe’s ing itself as a new global player, Russia could well have a strate- anniversary of the “homecoming” is a revisionist power. Neither already troubled democracies is above all in the Middle East. gic interest in breaking out of the of the Crimea, the peninsula’s treaties nor laboriously negoti- also safeguarding Russia’s hege- With two military bases in INF Treaty, for example to better n February 1990, a young reintegration into the Russian ated compromises are what really mony in the post-Soviet space. Syria, Russian presence in the shield itself in the east against the KGB officer departed from Federation following an illegal matter, but rather the right of the views the EU as noth- Mediterranean seems secured for unstoppable rise of China. At the Ihis first – and last – foreign annexation from Ukraine. strongest. It is no coincidence ing but an appendage of the US. a long time to come. Deployment same time, Moscow can use the posting and returned to a coun- Unassailable and unsanction- that in his speech to the UN Instead of negotiating energy of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile INF crisis to test NATO’s unity. try that was still called the Soviet able, can be voted three years ago, Vladimir Putin deals with Brussels, Russia is system effectively grants Moscow Whereas one NATO member Union. Vladimir Putin had spent for as an “independent” candi- explicitly referred to the “order seeking to clinch bilateral agree- sovereignty over the country. state – Poland – is debating the five years in East Germany and date, a ruler seemingly with his of Yalta,” the division of Europe ments with the EU’s conservative, The potential reconstruction of possible stationing of US nuclear bought a used car (a “Volga”) own, unique, czar-like power who into spheres of influence. pro-Moscow and often populist the war-ravaged country with weapons, another member – Ger- with his savings. His return lug- is now cementing his place in his- Russia's decoupling from the “illiberal democracies.” In this the help of international funds many – wants to avoid all discus- gage also included a used wash- tory. With apparent tirelessness, West has been going on for a way, Russia is working to estab- promises lucrative business for sion of an arms buildup. ing machine – a gift from his the “nationalny lider,” as he is good ten years. Clear warning lish itself as a kind of veto power Russian companies. And with US The Russian leadership denies it neighbors. known in Russia, is working to signs were ignored. Putin’s fiery at Europe’s periphery. After all, Middle East policy in disarray, is breaching the treaty. According In Dresden, Vladimir Putin had fulfill his mission to complete Munich speech against US hege- in the past 25 years, as Russia Moscow – as during the Soviet to Putin, Russia can defend itself experienced the fall of the Berlin Russia's resurrection and shape mony in 2007 was just the begin- sees it, all its attempts to find a era – is proving itself a major with ship-based medium-range Wall and learned to view civil a new world order as the ruler of ning. One year later, then-Russian legitimate place in Europe have diplomatic power in the region missiles, like those used in Syria, rights activists as a threat. A simi- a sovereign superpower. (interim) President Dmitry Med- been thwarted – and this point of as it defines common security for example. The Kremlin points lar implosion of state institutions Russian Foreign Minister Sergei vedev was already talking about view is not without merits. interests with Israel, Turkey, to NATO’s conventional superior- took place in the . Lavrov postulated a “post-West- a zone of Russian “privileged Second, Moscow sees a historic Saudi Arabia and Iran. Putin ity and the US anti-missile shield, Like many Russians, Putin did ern era” almost nonchalantly interests,” which basi- opportunity to end the era maintains good relations with currently based in Romania, whose not regard Mikhail Gorbachev's at the Munich Security Confer- cally includes of US hege- Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah launchers are similar to the ship- perestroika as a new beginning, ence last year. Indeed, it can be all post- mony, el-Sisi, and not only regarding based Aegis Ashore anti-aircraft but as a collapse, a humiliation assumed that a globally con- arms exports. system. Aegis, Russia suspects, can and a dangerous sell-out to the frontational foreign policy will It has been an astonishing suc- also launch medium-range missiles. West: a “paralysis of power,” as mask the essential social and cess. Russia, once a declining Each side accuses the other of he would later say. He regarded economic structural reforms regional power, is establish- seeking pretexts for breaking out the West’s de facto victory in the the Russian elite is unpre- ing itself as an “indispens- of the INF treaty. The looming Cold War as a kind of "Russian pared for. able” nation. security dilemma could lead to Versailles." Unlike Russia, In dealing with this a new nuclear arms race, and of Fortunately for him, the old China, for example, new Russia, West- course that would be big business networks – contacts mostly cul- has taken advan- ern capitals have for arms companies on both sides. tivated by intelligence agents and tage of global- been counting The US Congress approved initial (former) party members – sur- ization, staking – rather help- funds for the development of new vived the upheaval. This old and its claim to lessly – on dual medium-range missiles. new elite enabled his ascent to the global leader- strategies from Vladimir Putin is claiming his inner circles of power. He was ship through the Cold War, place in history as architect of “steadfast in a military way,” as gigantic eco- as was spelled Russia’s survival against the Russia’s president at the time, nomic proj- out long ago West and subsequent resurgence. Boris Yeltsin, described his suc- ects such as in 1967 by Monuments built to commemo- cessor in late 1999. the “New Belgian For- rate his rule are only a matter One of the most notable politi- Silk Road.” eign Min- of time. The remainder of his cal careers in recent history had Russia, ister Pierre tenure will feature about as much begun. Now in power for 18 meanwhile, Harmel: The democracy as it will profound years – longer than Angela Merkel remains a West should economic or political moderniza- – Vladimir Putin is one of the structurally advocate deter- tion; an increase in any of these world’s longest serving leaders. weak coun- rence and con- would mean the beginning of the He is the overwhelming favorite try. Putin’s new tainment while end of the Putin system. Yet, as his to win the Russian presidential strength and the signaling desire for oligarchs plunder the country in “election” for the fourth time legitimacy of his de-escalation. The an unprecedented manner, it must when it is held in March of this power are mani- implication here is an also be noted that under Putin, year. There is no alternative. fested in his willingness emphasis on dialogue, many everyday Russian lives Opposing candidates? Several to opportunistically use strategic patience and have improved for the first time were permitted to register, all Russia’s resurgent military “principled pragmatism,” in decades, at least temporarily. belonging to the official oppo- strength, if necessary in hybrid as it was called – all the while While the center of power increas- sition and therefore bit players form. The reality that the West, seeking to maintain strategic sta- ingly resembles a czar’s court, who know their roles in a staged and especially Germany, must bility. But this approach too is political stagnation at home is democracy. Putin’s only serious face is one of confrontation over Soviet which under threat. hailed as stability. rival in the long term, Alexei cooperation, mistrust over trust, states except FOTOLIA it regards as a This is because the nuclear card Perhaps he is grooming a suc- Navalny, is barred from running. as well as conspiracy theories and the Baltic NATO members. “unipolar” aberration. The is back on the table, in both cessor from the group of new- The Kremlin's political strategists deadlocked narratives on both Developments in the post-Soviet US is on the retreat strategically the East and West. Critics even comers who have arisen amid are reported to be aiming for sides. And there is no end in world could influence power struc- as it suffers under its inner con- fear the complete collapse of his extensive staffing reshuffling a “70/70” outcome: 70 percent sight. “Our biggest mistake was tures in Russia itself. Frozen con- tradictions. Although Moscow nuclear arms control. The INF of recent years – quiet, efficient, turnout, 70 percent for Putin. to trust you too much,” Putin said flicts in places such as Georgia, had initially placed its hopes on Treaty, which was concluded in smooth technocrats such as chief The turnout, however, is a in response to a question from a Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh real political deals with Trump, late 1987 between Soviet Gen- of staff Anton Vaino or the new source of concern. Not voting German participant at the 2017 are intended to safeguard Mos- he appeared to be the far better eral Secretary Gorbachev and US Minister for Economic Develop- could be seen as a sign of protest. Valdai Discussion Club, “and cow’s escalation dominance. alternative to the despised Hill- President Reagan and allowed ment Maxim Oreshkin. They are Faced with growing repression your mistake was to interpret In Ukraine, the situation is much ary Clinton. the destruction of some 3,000 all loyal followers who, like the and condemned to political pas- and abuse this trust as weakness.” more complicated and dangerous. But this optimism quickly nuclear missiles stationed on younger Putin, seem “steadfast sivity, younger people in particu- In this respect, Vladimir Putin The Minsk Agreement is being vanished, and not just because land, is being undermined. in a military way.” lar are turning their backs on the agrees with the majority of Rus- undermined by Kiev as well as of “Russiagate.” The apparent The first real ban on a category In 2024, at the end of his next cynical farce of Russian politics. sia’s population, which follows Moscow. In rebel-held Eastern incompetence of the US presi- of weapons was both a military term, Vladimir Putin would be Although participants numbered a centuries-old reflex comprising Ukraine, the ongoing war, the dent, his unpredictability and and political turning point in 72 – not exceedingly old. But the only in the low tens of thousands, a fateful mix of feelings of infe- people’s disastrous living condi- his rhetorical readiness to esca- Europe; the Intermediate-Range country is hostage to Putin – just nationwide youth protests of the riority and self-deception; they tions and infighting among local late, such as in the conflicts with Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) as he is a prisoner of the system he past year were certainly a warn- believe that Russia is respected warlords over money, weapons, North Korea and Iran, make ended Western Europe’s direct created. “As long as there is Putin, ing to the elites, as “Generation only when Russia is feared. “We coalmines and steel works are also Moscow uneasy, not to mention nuclear threat from Soviet SS-20 there is Russia,” his deputy chief Putin” took to the streets against are morally right,” said Sergei causing problems for Moscow. the almost hysterical proclivity in missiles while the withdrawal of staff once said of him. “With- Russia’s bleak authoritarianism. Karaganov, one of the Krem- The announced delivery of armor- the US Congress for anti-Russian of American Pershing 2 missiles out Putin – no Russia.” Young people protested against lin’s better-known foreign policy piercing weapons by the US to sanctions. Moscow’s relationship from Western Europe enhanced Putin forever? People initially the false values of an alleged new advisers, and “we are smarter, Ukraine has increased the risk of with the US has never been so bad the security of the Soviet Union. laughed at the thought. No one “Russian world” that is strictly stronger and more determined.” further military escalation. But since the end of the Cold War. The INF Treaty heralded the is laughing anymore. anti-Western and demands patri- In any case, in Moscow’s view, Russia's most important foreign But the foreign policy vacuum beginning of the end of the Cold otic obedience – a world in which the US-dominated “liberal order” policy goal in the post-Soviet left by the US is being filled War. Russia resembles a besieged for- is coming to an end – a view space seems to have been reached: wherever the opportunity arises. For years, the US has been KATJA GLOGER tress. Thousands of demonstra- Donald Trump seems to confirm halting the eastward enlargement Putin is a risk-taking tactician suspecting Russia of violating writes for the German tors were arrested and harsh day after day. The “post-Cold of NATO and the EU. who views politics as a zero- the treaty. Beyond (permit- weekly Stern and is a sentences imposed – authorities War order” and its democratic Ukraine will not become a sum game. Every day in Syria, ted) development and testing, longtime correspondent would not permit a repeat of the declarations such as the 1990 member of NATO even in the Russian bombers and helicopters it is believed that new SS-C-8 in Moscow. In 2017 2012 mass demonstrations that Charter of Paris for a New Europe long term, and full membership in defied Angela Merkel’s mantra (9M729) medium-range missiles she published Fremde Freunde. Deutsche und the Kremlin says were instigated have had their day. Now, the new the EU is likewise a distant goal. that there could be “no military have actually been deployed in at Russen – Die Geschichte by the West. multipolar, post-Western world Moscow wants to play for time in solution.” Putin wagered that least two battalions of the Rus- einer schicksalhaften In Putin’s brand of “sovereign is returning to the principles of Ukraine and work towards a new, neither the US nor Europe would sian armed forces. The NATO Beziehung (Foreign democracy,” nothing can be left classical power politics – a bal- perhaps more pro-Moscow govern- intervene. His bet paid off. The partners were informed of these friends. Germans and to chance. Accordingly, election ance, however unstable, among ment in Kiev. In doing so, Russia is Islamic State suffered defeat and movements last November by the Russians – The history of day – March 18 – has its own the major powers of Russia, the also betting that European leaders Bashar al-Assad won the war. US, although hard evidence was a fateful relationship). significance as a historic date for US and China. will grow tired of backing Ukraine. This is how Russia is establish- apparently not submitted.