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The Comparison among the Schools of Science of Complexity1

Xuefeng Song John N. Warfield School of Business Administration The School of Public Policy China University of Mining & Technology George Mason University Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 221008, P. R. China Fairfax, VA22032, USA

ABSTRACT These questions have the same answer: So many complex phenomena have emerged from “Nobody knows”. Some of them don’t even seem economic and social that traditional like scientific issues at all. Yet, when you look at and management science can do nothing little a closer, they actually have quite a lot in about them. For resolving the problems under the common. For instance, every one of these questions environment of complexity, scientists have been refers to a involving complexity. Many trying to search the routine of coping with complex independent agents are interacting with each other problems since the 1970s. As the result of their in a great many ways. Moreover these systems are efforts, five schools of science of complexity can be self-organizing and adaptive. They actively try to identified. So in this paper, the five schools are turn whatever happens to their advantage. Every compared systematically. The thoughts and theories one of these complex, self-organizing, adaptive of the schools are analyzed respectively. Finally, the systems possesses a kind of dynamism that makes developed and applied foregrounds of the schools them qualitatively different from static objects such of complexity are prospected. as computer chips or snowflakes, which are merely Keywords: Science of Complexity, Chaos, complicated. Complex systems are more Adaptive Systems, spontaneous, more disorderly, more alive than that. Moreover every is structurally 1. Introduction nonlinear rather than linear. Wide ranges of complex phenomena have The Complexity of Organization Behavior emerged from the life of organizations time after implies that “without changing our pattern of time and all over the world. Many people may thought, we will not be able to solve the problems remember the following issues. The Queen’s we created with our current patterns of thought banker, Barings was brought down by Nick Lesson (Einstein)” in a very short time; The New York stock market The origin of physical science of crashed more than 500 points on a single Monday complexity can be dated back to the 19th century. in October, 1987; The Soviet Union came apart The physicist Sadi Carnot and other researchers quickly in 1991; In most East Asia countries, realized it was both tedious and impractical to financial systems emerged into crisis one by one describe every interaction taking place in physical during 1997 to 1998. systems. Why did these organizations fall down so fast? Based on Newtonian concepts, system Why could none forecast these phenomena’s predictions became the law of thermodynamics. coming? What are the mechanisms of these Their existence could explain the increase in organizations’ evolution? temperature and pressure when gas molecules are heated in a container. But at the same time,

1 Supported by NSFC (No. 79970115) 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

thermodynamics did not provide a complete 2.2 description of the most complex interactions as, for It was a meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who example, in the case of gas molecules strongly first perceived chaos as such, back in 1960, while attracted to one another. working on the problem of weather predication. He Subsequently, Henri Poincare (1854-1912) intended to model the weather’s behavior using a realized that if a system consisted of a few parts set of twelve equations in a computer set up. This that interacted strongly, it could exhibit led him to identify what came to be known as the unpredictable behavior. This concept is at the origin butterfly effect, which later became the emblem of of chaos theory. chaos theory. Lorenz started to work on a simpler There have been many attempts to solve system that had sensitive dependence on initial nonlinear dynamics problems so far. And as the conditions. Initially he took twelve equations for results of the evolution of Science of Complexity in convection. the 19th and 20th century, five schools of thought One of pioneers in the field was a biologist, about complexity shown in table 1-1 have Robert May, who became concerned with a developed. problem which occurs with the prediction of biological populations. He found the line broke in Table 1-1. Schools of the Science of Complexity two as soon as the growth rate passed 3, meaning Name of School Inventors that instead of settling down to a single population,

1. System Dynamics Jay Forrester it would jump between two different ones from a year to another. Raising the value of the growth rate

2. Chaos Theory Groups in many a little more caused it to jump between four Locations different values. And as the parameter rose further

3. Adaptive Systems Santa Fe Institute the line bifurcated or doubled again. Bifurcation Theory came faster and faster until chaos appeared

4. Structure-Based John N. Warfield suddenly. After a certain value of growth rate is Science of passed it becomes impossible to predict the Complexity population, which implies a kind of chaos. 5. Indifference Postmodernists Presently, chaos theory has posed great

challenges to traditional approaches to science, no

wonder it has been extended to be considered the 2. Main Thoughts and Principals of the Schools science of complexity, considering the range of 2.1 System Dynamics scientific disciplines that have found points of System Dynamics (SD) was developed by Jay resemblance and complementarily in these theories. W. Forrester at the end of 1950s. System Dynamics Believers in chaos are looking for the whole, and is a theory based on the theory of , have alternative set of ideas, a fresh way to proceed decision-making analysis, and simulation which has produced valuable in sights in the methodology. From the view of System Dynamics, process of understanding the world. every social and is feedback

system that features is determined by its inner 2.3 Adaptive structure. In fact, SD is a method of simulating Santa Fe Institute (SFI) was known as the complex system by its feedback structure and also research on the adaptive system theory (CAS). called management laboratory. Chen (1988, [13]) The basic thought of CAS is that complexity is researched Monetary Chaos with System Dynamics originated from the adaptive of the active agent in theory. the system, which changes itself and its

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environment by interactive with its environment science called Structure-Based Science of and the other active agents. The revolution of CAS Complexity (SBSC) on the basis of the mentioned was just basis on this kind mechanism. The thought leaders in the history of thought. researchers in SFI developed a new methodology 2.4.2 What is Structured-Based Science of and a kind of software called SWARM basis on the Complexity (SBSC)? thought of adaptive creating complexity. Their goal (1) The Definitions and the Philosophy Thoughts is to set up the theory of dealing with complexity of SBSC by the simulation of computer. On the basis of Definition 1 Complexity is that sensation genetic algorithm, J. Holland developed CAS experienced in the human mind when, in observing model to simulate the behavior of general adaptive or considering a system, frustration arises from lack systems. of comprehension of what is being explored. 2.4 Structure-Based Science of Complexity Those who think that complexity is a 2.4.1 The Emergency of the Structure-Based property of what is being observed have to face up Science of Complexity to the challenge of trying to find, in a multitude of As one of the five schools of science of observable systems, an attribute that is shared complexity, the thought of SBSC has evolved very across all the many different types of observable slowly from thoughts of the following thought systems. Even if that could be done, the question leaders. would remain about how they could do this for • Aristotle (384-322 BC, Greece): He presented those systems that are merely being thought about, the concepts of category and the syllogism. such as systems to be designed, which do not even Both of them are important for SBSC. have any observable character. And then they • Abélard (1079-1142, France): He articulated would also have to explain why some observable the generic form of the syllogism in a single systems seem to be understood by some people, but prose proposition. not by others. Finally, it is worth noting that when • Leibniz (1646-1716, Germany): He people propose some measurement of complexity, documented the use of graphical symbols to inevitably it will involve something that people assist in the analysis and portrayal of logical have thought about or perceived with no relationships. intervening machinery, as opposed to measuring • Boole and De Morgan (1815-1864 & something like the color blue, for example, which 1806-1871): They invented a calculus of can be subjected to physical instrumentation. propositions, a language of logic, and the Definition 2 The Structured-Based Science theory of relations, the fundamental formal of Complexity consists of the following language. components: • C. S. Peirce (1839-1914, USA): He expanded Chronologies which add historical and interpreted the theory of relations, and he perspective to the context; conceived and justified the philosophy of Definitions which serve essentially as the science. suppositions or axioms upon which the science is • Harary (1921-, USA): He united several founded; branches of mathematics to produce the Laws of Complexity which advise on analytical theory of structural models. expectations to be held under normal circumstances, In order to make decisions under complex which identify hurdles that methodology must situation, John N. Warfield (1974-, USA) provided overcome in order to avoid useless labor, and which the enabling method to convert Harary's theory into point the way to enhancement of productivity; practical applications. And then he set up the Metrics which permit numerical values to be 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

attached to problematic situations for comparison z Lack of self-recognition of with other problematic situations; physiologically-based mental limitations Empirical Evidence, which helps establish when pressing personal beliefs on others; the validity of the other components of SBSC. z Excessive emphasis upon products of In other words, SBSC is the science that physical science when working with human embodies the fundamental properties of complex systems; organizational behavior, the laws of complexity, the z Self-generated action frameworks that may practical methodologies to make design decisions incorporate combinations of the foregoing. under the complex environment, and guidance to Each member of a group that is intended to resolve the situations involved in complexity. strive to resolve complexity brings to the group that (2) The Philosophy of Thought of SBSC framework already developed, incorporating a The philosophy of thought of SBSC was variety of Killer Assumptions and each individual's derived from the integrated understanding of the own behavioral pathologies. As a result, new thoughts about behavioral pathologies: individual, pathologies may be encountered that arise from the group and organization. The behavioral pathologies group. Again the discoveries of thought leaders are are as follows. invoked to describe group behavioral pathologies. (a). The Individual behavioral pathologies They can be summarized and integrated as follows: were pointed out by six thought leaders, Robert F. (b). Group pathologies include Groupthink Bales (1951), Kenneth Boulding (1910-1994), (Janis, 1982), Clanthink (Warfield and Teigen, Michel Foucault (1969-1993), George Miller 1993), Spreadthink (Warfield, 1995), and (1956), Herbert A. Simon (1974), and Sir Geoffry Underconceptualization. To the cumulative effect of Vickers (1894-1982). Their opinions can be those, one now escalates the difficulties in group summarized and integrated as follows: work. The group is susceptible both to groupthink z A limitation on the amount of information and to clanthink, either or both threatening the that can be managed in short term memory; quality of the group product. Add to that the z The choice of inappropriate categories, common practice of failing to understand the inadequate to reflect the membership in those importance of the working infrastructure when categories; struggling with complexity, and there is already a z Inability to take part in group activity without tower of reasons to suppose that the group product disrupting it by exercise of emotional cannot help resolve complexity. Recognizing negatives; further that the language which is needed to portray z Mindless acceptance of received doctrine complexity in any particular situation cannot be ad which biases an inquiry at its outset; hoc but must carefully evolve from belief about that z Inherent inability to allocate importance situation as the group proceeds, and that must across members of a large set in the light of portray structural non-linearity; the work of relative saliency; ordinary groups, no matter how prominent and no z Downgrading of the language of science to matter how frequently occurring, can hardly be suit individual preferences; taken seriously by anyone who is seeking a z Inadequate use of external learning adjuncts modicum of understanding. to compensate for mental limitations; (c). Organizational behavior pathologies z Disinterest in the origins and trajectories of were discovered by the following thought leaders: bodies of belief; Argyris (1982), Anthony Downs (1966, 1994), z Uncritical propagation of dysfunctional Harold Dwight Lasswell (1960, 1963, 1971), and received doctrine; Herbert A. Simon (1955). 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

The resolution of complexity relies on an make possible the design (or redesign) that is integrated understanding of these pathologies. A required in order to resolve the complexity careful design of a system for resolving complexity associated with the problematic situation. is required to be responsive to the collective Resolution incorporates recognition of need for pathologies, and to find ways to circumvent their resources for the purpose of implementing the mutually reinforcing efforts. The SBSC is just set design, and that such resources normally are found up on that. only in organizations, because of the size and scope of complexity. 2.3 The Methodology of SBSC The allocation of behavior is carried out The SBSC is the basis for a program using according to which behavioral component has the the science to work with complexity. Whatever best qualifications to carry out the relevant work programs are offered would necessarily incorporate component of the Work Program of Complexity. processes for constructing and interpreting models. Typically, the allocation of behavior is as follows: These processes would necessarily reflect careful Description: best done by groups (8 to 15), consideration of behavioral pathologies, and would because each member has distinctive knowledge rely heavily upon the understanding of language that can be aggregated with the help of Interactive requirements for representing complexity. Management. In SBSC these ideas have been incorporated Diagnosis: best done by an individual who is into what is called "The Work Program of experienced in using the diagnostic aids developed Complexity (WPOC)". The WPOC is the scientific for interpreting the structures produced in interface between (a) the arena in which Interactive Management Workshops, especially in problematic situations arise that involve complexity interpreting the Problematique; provided the and (b) the learning actions that take place enroute individual then shares the diagnosis in an to resolving the problematic situation. A system of Interpretation Session with the group that produced management that matches the requirements of the the results, both to check out the interpretation, and WPOC is called "Interactive Management (IM)" to make any needed amendments. (Warfield and Cárdenas, 1994). It has been heavily Design: best done by groups (8 to 15), tested and revised for about two decades, and has because each member has distinctive knowledge been found to be highly effective. that can be aggregated, with the help of Interactive Discovery reflects the idea that no one Management. understands the complexity. A period of time Implementation: best done by one devoted to Discovery is required for two reasons: organization (whatever components that are first, to describe the situation and second, to required), following the Interpretation Session with diagnose the situation. While the Description and the group that produced the results, both to check Diagnosis are two tangible products of the out the interpretation, and to make any needed Discovery component, the processes of arriving at amendments. these products are designed to resolve many of the It is particularly vital, in most applications, issues related to behavioral pathologies; and also to that the host organization create an infrastructure assist in developing an appropriate object language that is appropriate as learning means for persons in with which to analyze, describe, and (re)design the organization who were not present during the whatever situation is under observation or IM work, but who need to understand what was consideration. done by the participants in order to make their own Resolution can be started, once the Discovery contributions to implementation. It is also work has produced sufficient understanding to important to keep the material up to date, and to 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

recognize that everyone who sees and understands Indian Opportunity, have said that they had tried the IM products becomes parts of the "invisible virtually all the other processes promoted by gurus, hand" , which can act to correct any perceived and found them unsatisfactory but, after trying shortcomings. Interactive Management, they concluded that it had All products of The Work Program of all the features they had been seeking. Complexity are constructed as described in [1]. Several small consulting firms are based in 2.4 The Applications of SBSC the use of SBSC, e.g., CWA Ltd. (see: There have been hundreds of examples of the http://www.cwaltd.com), also a few universities application of SBSC in the past twenty years. provide education in this field. In the United States, Ford Motor Company is Besides, there are software packages one of numerous users of SBSC. It has been a available to apply in structuring complexity. They frequent user, probably doing more IM Workshops include: CogniscopeTM of CWA, Ltd., Synergistic than any large corporation (but perhaps not as SolutionTM of DeSyMa, Ltd., the Tlatocan of frequent as some governmental organizations both ITESM, Campus Monterrey; the GMU ISM for domestic and international). It has been used on a Windows package; and the older DOS-Based GMU variety of , mostly relating to system ISM software. The last one is available for free design. downloading at the web address: http:// In Mexico, the government of the Mexican www.gmu.edu/departments/t-iasis. State of Guanajuato created an organization with over 250 members specifically to take advantage of 3. The Comparison among the Schools the information developed in running more than a There are big differences among the schools hundred IM workshops with various socioeconomic of the science of complexity. and political sectors in that State. In Japan, Koichi Haruna and his colleagues at Table 3-2. Different Thoughts about Complexity Where Hitachi Systems Research Laboratories studied the Underlying Name of School Complexity Formalism SBSC and developed approaches in their internal Lies planning. Developments in Japan and elsewhere 1. System Ordinary In the System were aided by Dr. Kazuhiko Kawamura of Dynamics Differential Vanderbilt University. Dr. Ohuchi of the University Equations

of Hokkaido has offered improved ISM computer 2. Chaos Ordinary In the System algorithms. Theory Nonlinear Differential In Brazil, Dr. Robert House of Vanderbilt Equations University, introduced SBSC to the Brazilian 3. Adaptive Partial In the System Futures Research Group at the University of São Systems Differential Paulo under the leadership of Mr. James T. C. Theory Equations

Wright. They applied it to the Brazilian alcohol fuel 4. Structure- Formal Western In the Mind program, and to develop a soybean marketing Based Logic; Including (Much of the Science of Set Theory of Work is concept that empowered farmers to manage their Complexit Relations, represented own affairs. y Digraph Theory, by Lattice Theory, the works of In England, Dr. Ross Janes established the Boolean C.S. Peirce, Interactive Management Unit at the city University Methods, and J. Piaget, M. The Algebra of Polanyi, and of London, which served numerous clients Partitions. G. Vickers) successfully. 5.Indifference None Unspecified Some organizations, e.g., The Americans for First of all, as shown in table 3-2, SBSC 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

assumes the complexity lies in mind, and origins being identified, and the connections meanwhile the other theories suppose the with it being demonstrated. complexity lies in the system observed. In fact SBSC is one of the few (and perhaps Secondly, SBSC is focused on how people the only complexity oriented) systems that meets can work effectively with complex matters. And all of the above requirements. System Dynamics, Chaos Theory and Adaptive As to the systematic feature of SBSC, we can System Theory try to explore the mechanism of get it easily from the system of SBSC presented in chaos systems and then to control them. last section. That is SBSC consists of thought of Thirdly, SBSC is adequate to socio-technical Philosophy, the infrastructure of science, the theory, systems that include organization and management the methodology, the software, and its applications. systems, while Chaos theory is more suited for 3.3 The Importance and Possibility of SBSC for technology systems and physical systems. Managing Complexity and Chaos Finally, SBSC has become one kind of With the processes and product types being Science[3]-[4], and System Dynamics, Chaos Theory well defined and now pragmatically useful, SBSC and Adaptive System Theory belongs to a kind of offers a unique support system for developing an theory level[18]-[19]. understanding of what is thought to be complex; 3.2 The Scientific and Systematic Features of and for arriving at a widely understood plan of SBSC action for resolving the complexity. The Scientific Features of SBSC can be Because of this uniqueness, and because concluded from the following aspects: there is little that is much more basic than thought z Rooting in Scientific Thought. The essence as the entry point for resolving complexity, SBSC of its representations lies in formal logic, that provides a basis for structuring collective belief that being the so-called “Western Logic”, is more basic than products of other systems associated with such scholars as Gottfried intended to support design and decision practices. Leibniz, Augustus De Morgan, George Boole, From the base of knowledge that it provides, and Charles Sanders Peirce (Bochenski, not to mention the opportunity for widespread 1970). review and learning, SBSC offers a sound z Full Disclosure. Its explanation is widely springboard for the application of other, better available in the literature (not described only known, formalisms such as quantitative formulae in terms of metaphors). from physics or other sciences. z Replicability of Process. The explanation is in The Products of group work aimed at significant depth, so that replication is resolving complexity enable data to be accumulated possible, which permits comparisons to that relate to the complexity involved. This means establish credibility. that one does not need to carry out artificial z Specializing in Resolving Complexity. It is experiments just to collect data, but rather can just intended only for resolving complexity in draw on the natural outcomes of productive group organizations (although some find ISM work as the source of data. These data can then be helpful in their individual projects). applied in a variety of ways to enhance the z Sizeable Record of Adding Value in resolution of complexity including, e.g., the Applications. It has been applied in many definitions of the Index of Complexity (Staley, organizations, and has added significant value 1995) to enable computation of the numerical whenever it has been used. values. z Founded in Science. It is founded in science, Since comparable Indexes can be computed the science being thoroughly described, its for different projects, it begins to be possible to see 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

just how much complexity is involved, and how far imply SBSC is perfect and need not be improved the Index values depart from the definition of any more. It is expected to complement and polish. “normal situations” to which most common In fact, there are a lot of works needed to be done algorithms apply. It is also possible to make in SBSC, such as finding some new laws of numerical comparisons of relative values among complexity, providing a compact mathematical different situations, which gradually helps people to explanation, improving the ISM software, and so build an intuitive understanding of just how on. dangerous it is to manage projects that involve Since SBSC has broken fresh ground in complexity, applying only the normal commonly Complexity Science, it would be developed fast and understood tools. has a bright future. In short, SBSC makes it possible to manage In a world, the complex world needs to be complexity and chaos, so it is of vital importance. explored by all scientists’ efforts of all schools of science of complexity. It is expected that the 4. Conclusions complex world will be controlled by human being The organizational world is complex, and a finally. complex world needs to be managed by a science of complexity. 5. References It is inherent in science that it requires a [1] Warfield, J. N. and Roxana C á rdenas, A dedicated body of scholars striving constantly to Handbook of Interactive Management, Ames, detect its flaws, while simultaneously working to IA: Iowa State University Press, 1994 enhance its strengths. [2] Warfield, J. N., Societal Systems: Planning, Every idea and view in science of complexity Policy, and Complexity, New York: Wiley should be challenged and put to test. At present Inter-science, 1976. (Reprinted in weaknesses are found in infrastructure at both ends paperback--Salinas, CA: Inter-systems, 1989, of the spectrum of human activity: the Chinese Translation Published in 1993) infrastructure of science, and the infrastructure of [3] Warfield, J. N., A Science of Generic Design: practice. Managing Complexity Through Systems SD is a method of simulating complex system Design, Salinas, CA: Inter-systems, 1990 by its feedback structure and also called (Second Ed., Ames, IA: Iowa State University management laboratory. Press, 1994) The basic thought of CAS is that complexity is [4] Warfield, J. N., A Structure-Based Science of originated from the adaptive of the active agent in Complexity, 1999 (To be published) the system, which changes itself and its [5] Warfield, J. N., "Twenty Laws of Complexity: environment by interactive with its environment Science Applicable in Organizations", Systems and the other active agents. Research and Behavioral Science, 16, 3-40, Structure-Based Science of Complexity 1999 (SBSC) is an effective approach to manage [6] Warfield, J. N., and S. M. Staley: "Structural complexity of organizations. So it should be paid Thinking: Organizing Complexity Through more attention by people all over the world. SBSC Disciplined Activity", Systems Research 13 (1), will be very helpful to cope with situations under March, 1996 the environment of complexity. [7] Warfield, J. N., "Principles of Interactive In essence, SBSC has set up a validly Management", Proc. International Conference framework for resolving situations under the on and Society, New York: IEEE, environment of complexity. However that does not January, pp 746-750, 1983 中国科技论文在线______http://www.paper.edu.cn

[8] Warfield, J. N., "Binary Matrices in Systems Conference on and ", IEEE Transactions on Systems, Engineering, Scientific and Technical Man, and Cybernetics, September, pp 441-449, Documents Publishing House, 1998, 1973 pp113-117 [9] Warfield, J. N., "Developing Subsystem [23] Song, X., "The Definition, Contents, Matrices in Structural Modeling", IEEE Methodologies, and Implications of Chaos Transactions on Systems, Man, and Economics" (in Chinese), Journal of the Cybernetics, January, pp 74-80, 1974 Theory, Methods and Applications of System [10] Warfield, J. N., "The Magical Number Engineering, No. 4，1998 Three--Plus or Minus Zero", Cybernetics and Systems 19, pp 339-358, 1988 [11] Warfield, J. N., "Economics and Systems Science", SCIMA Vol. 19, No.3, pp65-71, 1990 [12] Warfield, J. N., "Spreadthink: explaining ineffective groups", Systems Research 12 (1), pp5-14, 1995 [13] Chen, P, Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Monetary Chaos, System Dynamic Review, 47, 1988，pp88-96 [14] Flood, C., Dealing With Complexity, Plenum Press, New York, 2nd, 1993 [15] Waldrop, M. M., Complexity, Simon & Schuster, 1992 [16] Gharajedaghi, J., Systems Thinking, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1999 [17] Kiel, L. D., Managing Chaos and Complexity in Government, Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1994 [18] Stacey, R. D., Complexity and Creativity in Organization, Berrett-Koehler Publisher, 1996 [19] Puu, T., Nonlinear Economic Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, 4th, 1997 [20] Song, X., The Theory of Chaos Economics and Its Applications （ in Chinese ） , China University of Mining & Technology Press, Xuzhou, 1996 [21] Song, X., Gu, S., "Research on the Chaotic Regular of Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Markets", The Proceedings of The 3rd International Conference on Management Science, Springer-Vager Press, 1998 [22] Song, X., Li, W., Gu, S., "The Methods of the Chaos Degree and Chaos Border Point and Their Application to Shanghai Stock Market", Proceedings of the 3rd International