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TACR: Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact Technical Assistance Consultant’s Final Report Project Number: 43295 December 2011 Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund and the Government of Australia) Prepared by Peter Mackay and Michael Russell Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) Melbourne, Australia For Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), the Ca Mau Peoples Committee and the Kien Giang Peoples Committee This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Ca Mau Peoples Committee Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in The Mekong Delta – Part A Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Final Report Climate Change Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Study for Ca Mau and Kien Giang Kien Giang Peoples Provinces, Vietnam Committee Ca Mau Kien Giang Peoples Peoples Committee Committee Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in The Mekong Delta – Part A Final Report Climate Change Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Study for Ca Mau and Kien Giang Provinces, Vietnam December 2011 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in Mekong Delta – Part A FOREWORD PAGE i Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in Mekong Delta – Part A CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................... VII KEY TERMS ................................................................................................................................................. IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ X 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 THE REGIONAL CONTEXT ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 The Mekong Delta ........................................................................................................................ 3 1.2.2 Socio-Economic Context ............................................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 Sectoral Growth and Diversification ............................................................................................. 4 1.2.4 The Agriculture Sector .................................................................................................................. 6 1.2.5 Industry Sector .............................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.6 Energy Sector ................................................................................................................................ 8 1.2.7 Urban Settlements ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.2.8 Transport ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2. CVRA APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 11 2.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 EVALUATING VULNERABILITIES ............................................................................................................... 13 2.2.1 Key Sectors ................................................................................................................................. 14 2.2.2 Vulnerability Indicators .............................................................................................................. 15 2.2.3 Analysing Adaptive Capacity ...................................................................................................... 18 2.2.4 Control Measures ....................................................................................................................... 19 2.2.5 Vulnerability Profiles .................................................................................................................. 20 2.2.6 Mapping Vulnerability ................................................................................................................ 21 2.2.7 The Adaptation Assessment Process .......................................................................................... 22 2.3 IDENTIFYING AND ANALYSING FUTURE RISK .............................................................................................. 24 3. CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................................................................. 28 3.1 CLIMATE IN THE MEKONG DELTA ............................................................................................................ 28 3.1.1 Observed Changes ...................................................................................................................... 28 3.2 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE .................................................................................................................... 34 3.2.1 Climate Change and Emission Scenarios .................................................................................... 34 3.3 CLIMATE MODELS AND DOWNSCALING .................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1 Modelling used in the Project ..................................................................................................... 36 3.4 FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS (2030 AND 2050) .......................................................................... 40 3.4.1 Temperature ............................................................................................................................... 40 3.4.2 Rainfall ....................................................................................................................................... 41 3.4.3 Sea Level Rise.............................................................................................................................. 43 3.4.4 Wind Speed ................................................................................................................................. 44 3.4.5 Other Climatic Factors ................................................................................................................ 44 3.4.6 Model Discrepancies ................................................................................................................... 45 3.5 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENTS .................................................................................................. 45 3.5.1 Hydrology and water resources .................................................................................................. 45 3.5.2 Coastal impacts .......................................................................................................................... 46 4. CA MAU PROVINCE ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.1 POPULATION AND PEOPLE ..................................................................................................................... 47 4.1.1 Socially Vulnerable Groups ......................................................................................................... 51 4.1.2 Poverty Incidence ....................................................................................................................... 52 4.1.3 Unemployment ........................................................................................................................... 53 4.1.4 Health ......................................................................................................................................... 53 PAGE i Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in Mekong Delta – Part A 4.1.5 Education .................................................................................................................................... 55 4.2 PROVINCIAL DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 56 4.3 LANDUSE ........................................................................................................................................... 57 4.4 AGRICULTURE ..................................................................................................................................... 59 4.4.1 Cropping and Livestock ............................................................................................................... 59 4.4.2 Aquaculture ................................................................................................................................ 60 4.4.3 Fisheries .....................................................................................................................................
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