Water Resource Planning Dr Peter Spillett

Head of Environment, Quality and Sustainability

Thames Water Water Resource Situation in the UK in 2000 n North & West Reservoirs in the north and west of the country emptied more rapidly in the hot summer of 1995. However, the west of the country is generally wetter

o South East Drier than the north and west, and has the greatest demand and the fastest rate of increase in demand 11 p South West Occasional problems in summer due to tourists

! Water Resources Stressed Areas 22 !! Parts of the Thames and Trent basins, East Anglian and southern England are resource 33 sensitive Thames Water Utilities Ltd - Operational Area

Grimsbury

Banbury

River Cherwell Stevenage

River Lee Luton Bishop's Stortford

Farmoor River Colne Cirencester Oxford Deephams River Thames Three Valleys Waltham Cross Water Coppermills Maple Lodge Medmenham Swindon Slough LONDON Beckton Gatehampton Dartford Mogden Crossness Axford Reading North Water Only Companies Surrey Newbury Kempton Long Reach River Kennet Water Hampton Sewerage Region Boundary Walton South East Water Water Region Boundary Sutton and Sevenoaks East Surrey Principal Water Treatment Works BasingstokeShalfor Water Principal Sewage Treatment Works d Guildford

Groundwater Sources River Wey Crawley Reservoirs Haslemere London and River Thames from Space Existing Water Supply Infrastructure

„ 8.1 million customers

„ 98 water treatment works

„ Hampton WTW is the largest

„ 2869 M/l of water is put into supply each day (ave 2003/04)

„ 31,454km of water mains

„ London Ring Main 80km in length (longer than the channel tunnel)

„ 23 surface reservoirs Background „ Thames Water supply area is divided up into 6 discreet Water Resource Zones (WRZ):

– London

– SWOX (Swindon and Oxfordshire)

– Kennet Valley

– Guildford

– Henley

– Slough / Wycombe / Aylesbury

„ Water abstracted from either surface or groundwater sources

„ London heavily reliant on surface water (90% of abstraction)

„ Provinces more reliant on groundwater (70% of abstraction)

„ Thames Water currently supplies in the region of 2869 Ml/d WATER RESOURCE ZONES

Banbury NORTH OXFORDSHIRE

SWINDON SLOUGH / WYCOMBE / AYLESBURY Stevenage

R. Cherwell Bishop’s Stortford Luton R. Lee

Cirencester Oxford R. Colne R. Thames THAMES VALLEY SOUTH LEE VALLEY Swindon OXFORDSHIRE London

HENLEY R. Thames R. Kennet Reading Newbury

KENNET VALLEY Basingstoke

R. Wey SOUTH EAST GUILDFORD Average Rainfall Fig.1 (Source: www.worldclimate.com)

2500

2000

1500 mm / year 1000

500

0 Adelaide, Dallas, Istanbul, Jakarta, London, Los Paris, Rome, Kuala Australia USA Turkey Indonesia UK Angeles, France Italy Lumpur USA Hydrological Background - Thames Basin

„ Rainfall 740 mm/yr

„ Evaporation 510 mm/yr

„ Effective Rainfall 230 mm/yr

„ Equivalent to 8200 Ml/d

„ Total abstraction 4500 Ml/d

i.e. 55% of average effective rainfall is already abstracted. The Thames Basin is one of the most heavily used water resources systems in the world. A Twin Track Approach - Balancing Supply/Demand

„ Resource Development „ Demand Management

– Groundwater development – Leakage control

– Artificial recharge – Metering

– Surface water resources – Water efficiency

Supply Demand What’s involved?

„ Demand forecast data - Population Projections - Climate Change data „ Average and Peak demand - Leakage predictions forecasts - Metering activity - Household demand - Non Household demand - Water Efficiency „ Assumptions built into demand forecast to take account of the efficiencies derived from increased metering and use of water efficient goods in the future

- Current abstractions „ Supply Forecast data - Future schemes - Transfers - Sustainability Reductions Components of demand

In-house Non-household

WC Flushing, Personal Washing, Agriculture/fishing/forestry

Clothes Washing, House Cleaning, Mining/utilities/construction

Dish Washing, Waste Disposal Unit, Food/drink/tobacco

Cooking Water, Drinking Water Chemical industry

Out-of-house Engineering

Car washing, Lawn watering, Manufacturing

Plant watering, Paddling/Swimming Business Services

Pool, Other Public Services, Other Increase in Housing Demand

„ Economic growth in UK and in SE England in particular

– Forecast increase of 14% in service industry employment in Thames Water area

– Increase in population in London Plan of c. 800,000 by 2016 (equivalent to extra 130 Ml/d demand)

„ Changes in society

– Smaller household units; occupancy forecast to reduce over next 30 years

– Ageing population

– Greater mobility leading to increase in migration in and around London Household Types and Size (England)

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0 1971 1996 2021

Married Couple Cohabiting Couple Lone Parent Other Multi-Person One Person Consumption by Household Size (l/h/d) TW unweighted unmeasured hhld PCC by occupancy Apr 03 - Mar 04

201

183

154

134

130

124 Climate Change

„ Scientific opinion (from UKCIP98 scenarios) is that climate change will result in a 0.5 – 1.5oC rise in temperatures in the South East by 2020.

„ Impacts:

– More extreme events with increased variability of rainfall, temperature, and evaporation affecting the hydrological cycle.

– Generally, summers will be hotter and drier, with increased evaporation and lower river flows.

– Clear link between temperature increases and peak water demand.

– Overall, the average annual amount of rainfall may increase slightly, but the increased demand for water will occur when the environment is most stressed. Future Extremes – Warm and Wet

Anomaly 2020s 2050s 2080s

Mean Temperature

A hot ‘1995-type’ year 3.4°C 1% 20% 63% warmer A warm’1999-type’ year 1.2°C 28% 73% 100% warmer Precipitation

A dry ‘1995-type’ summer 37% drier 10% 29% 50%

A wet ‘1994/95-type’ winter 66% wetter 1% 3% 7%

Percentage of years experiencing various extreme seasonal anomalies across central England & Wales for the UKCIP02 Medium High Scenario relative to the 1961-1990 climate. Changing Rainfall Patterns

Wetter winters

„ Winter precipitation will increase for all periods under all scenarios by between 10% and 35% by the 2080s

„ Wetter winters like the 1994/95 winter become more common

Drier summers

„ Very dry summers like 1995 may occur 30% of the time by 2050 under the Medium-High scenario

Source: UKCIP02 Scientific Report Thames Catchment - Agreed Low Flows

Grimsbury Banbury

Stevenage R.Dikler R.

Ch Luton Bishop's

e r Stortford w R R . L e e . R.Windrush e C ll

h

u

r n Ampney R.Bulbourne Brook Oxford Farmoor Cirencester es R. Tham R.Wye Lee Valley Blewbury e Swindon London Beckton R. Coln R.Lambourne es R.Pang R. Tham Crossness net Mogden R. Ken Reading Newbury t n e r Thames Valley a

D

.

R

Basingstoke Guildford y R. We Law Brook AMP3 Low Flow Investigations - eight investigations with reporting times

„ Sulham and Tidmarsh Meadows SSSI, Berks (’03)

„ Kennet and Lambourn Floodplain cSAC, Berks (’03)

„ River Windrush, Oxon (‘03)

„ Blewbury Ponds, Oxon (’03)

„ Amwell-Magna Loop, Lee Valley, Herts (’04)

„ Law Brook, Surrey (’05)

„ River Dikler, Gloucs (’05)

„ River Kennet SSSI, Wilts (’05) Future Sustainability Reductions

„ Habitats Directive – potentially large impacts on licensed volumes up to and beyond 2010.

„ Growing numbers of nationally and internationally designated sites of environmental interest.

– UK has 991 internationally designated sites (Ramsar, cSAC, SPA),

– A further 30 sites are currently being proposed.

„ Environment Agency indicates many areas are either at the limit of abstraction or over abstracted for both surface and groundwater. Leakage History 1996 – Present Performance and Investment

£90M 1300

) Expenditure Leakage £80M 1200 e, CSL l

sib £70M i 1100 e, V v )

cti £60M A

( 1000 d e (Ml/d £50M l Spen eakag

ro 900 t L n y l

£40M h t Co n e g

800 Mo

eaka £30M l L a u

n 700 n £20M A

£10M 600

£0M 500 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Leakage and Mains Replacement

„ Leakage is key challenge for Thames Water and is currently at about 948Ml/d (2003/04 average)

„ Made worse in London due to London clay and climatic shock

„ £80 million spent on finding and fixing leaks involving 500 staff (2002/03) and increasing

„ Use of sophisticated technology to detect leaks more effectively

„ More than half Thames water mains are over 100 years old. Around a third are over 150 years old

„ Initiated accelerated mains replacement programme to tackle issue which will replace 1830km of mains by 2010 Metering - Historic

„ All new properties metered since 1989 using mechanical meters standard in the UK

„ All sprinkler users and swimming pool owners to be metered

„ Free meter option

„ Target high non-essential users

„ All commercial properties metered TWUL - Current Position

„ 21% Domestic customers metered

„ 20,000 Commercially assessed properties

„ 8,000 meter optants / pa

„ 23,000 new connections / pa

„ Domestic meter growth currently 31,000 / pa

„ Service costs high due to low installation volume across the estate

„ Average revenue loss £40 / meter after tariff basket adjustment

„ 91% external installation

„ Reactive meter exchange Water Efficiency Promotion (1990 – 2003)

„ Water audits

„ Waterwise pack

„ Waterwise web site

„ Practical measures

– Sensible Use of Water Appliances

– Good housekeeping

„ Metering

„ Leakage Reduction

„ Millennium Dome Water Efficiency Water Efficiency

„ European water use relatively low Measured Per Capita Consumption „ Options include fixtures and fittings in new properties plus retrofit devices in existing properties. NL – Cistern displacement devices Australia – Low flow showers and taps America – Some devices becoming more efficient with time London (new)

– On the other hand, increasing London ownership of power showers, 0 100 200 300 400 500 jacuzzis… l/person/day Water Efficiency

„ Sustainable Buildings Taskforce - Government should enshrine in regulation a 25% saving on per capita consumption under Part G of the Building Regulations for new and refurbished building stock

„ EcoHomes a voluntary assessment rating which includes water efficiency as one of seven criteria for new, converted and renovated home http://products.bre.co.uk/breeam/ecohomes.html

„ Need to work in partnership with developers

„ Reduced VAT on water efficient appliances to promote uptake

„ Variable differential tariffs combined with extended metering penetration

„ Government could consider Stamp Duty rebates on approved water efficient investments Introduction to WRP Process Best Practicable Environmental Programme (BPEP)

„ Adopted for previous Water Resource Plan, 1999, to assess water resource and demand management options

„ Provides methodology for assessing schemes in terms of environmental and social impact as well as cost

„ In line with Ofwat requirements monetises the environmental and social impacts of water resource and demand management schemes

„ Uses ‘best practice’ techniques Economic Approach

„ Adopt the method for Water Resource Planning prescribed by Ofwat and the Environment Agency

„ Method designed to minimise NPV (Net Present Value) of a Water Resource Programme

„ Calculate AISC (Average Incremental Social Costs) for water resource options

„ Costs: Capital & Operating costs plus temporary and permanent Environmental and Social Costs (where these can be monetised) all discounted

„ Thames Water’s SBP independently audited and certified by Atkins, acting on behalf of Ofwat Long Term Strategy - BPEP Options, Long List Includes:

„ National Water Grid „ Universal Metering, Retrofit etc.

„ Canal / River Transfer „ Low usage industrial technology

„ Grey water/black water „ Imports by sea

„ Thames barrage „ Icebergs

„ Royal Docks „ Rain cloud seeding

„ Stored Water Reservoir „ Groundwater development

„ Desalination „ Mains Replacement

„ Artificial Storage and Recharge Supply/Demand Balance - London WRP 1999

Total London Supply / Demand Balance 2600.00

2400.00

2200.00

2000.00

1800.00

1600.00

1400.00

1200.00

1000.00 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 2014/ 2015/ 2016/ 2017/ 2018/ 2019/ 2020/ 2021/ 2022/ 2023/ 2024/ 1997/ 1998/ 1999/ 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ 2010/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/

WAFU - SBP/WRP Dry Year Average Demand (SBP/WRP)

Dry Year Demand + Target Headroom (SBP/WRP) Final Programme – London 2004

London Average Final and Baseline

2,900

2,800

2,700

2,600

2,500 d) l/ M

( 2,400 s t i

Un 2,300

2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900 9 1 2 4 5 7 8 0 3 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 0 3 6 9 4 7 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 8 9 1 2 5 8 3 6 9 2 5 6 1 20 2 23 24 26 27 29 02 04 05 0 07 08 10 11 1 13 14 1 17 1 2 2 2 0 0 1 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year

WAFU (inc. NonCommitted Schemes) WAFU (Committed schemes) Final Planning Demand Forecast Baseline Demand Forecast Proposed Metering and Water Efficiency Activities (AMP4)

„ Metering of all new households

„ Metering of all sprinkler users and swimming pool owners

„ Free Meter option available on request

„ Two metering on change of occupancy trial areas (Chigwell and Swindon)

„ Promote Education and Awareness

„ Distribute Cistern Displacement Devices and Self Audits

„ Conduct Commercial and Domestic Audits

„ Trial Free Retrofit Dual Flush Devices London - Ongoing / Future Leakage Control

„ Thames Water have agreed Action Plan with regulators comprising patch repairs and mains replacement

„ Leaks recur after patch repairs due to age of network; mains replacement more effective in long term

„ Aim to replace 1850km in the period to March 2010 @ 370km/yr = 20% of mains in Metropolitan London (utilities typically lay 125km/yr) but dependent on provision of funding within Final Determination

„ With leakage control, predicted to give savings of approximately 240Ml/d by 2009/10 Location of mains replacement proposals for District Metering Areas (DMA) Why Desalination?

„ Programme risks more readily managed

„ Provides greatest assurance in terms of security of supply for customers

„ Relatively low cost option

„ Only practical option to meet regulatory deadlines within short time frame required

„ Utilises a sustainable raw water source, thus reducing development pressure on more scarce freshwater sources Dry Year Supply Demand Balance - London

2,700

2,600

2,500

2,400

2,300 Ml/d Ml/d Ml/d 2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900

1,800 7 7 7 5 5 5 6 9 6 9 6 9 11 11 11 0 0 0 / / / /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 6 6 6 4/0 4/0 4/0 5/ 7/08 5/ 7/08 5/ 7/08 8 8 8 12/13 13/14 12/13 13/14 12/13 13/14 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011/12 2011/12 2011/12 2010 2010 2010 20 20 20 20 20 20 2009/10 2009/10 2009/10 20 20 20 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 2002/03 2003/04 2002/03 2003/04 2002/03 2003/04 20 20 20 Years

Water available for use (WAFU) from existing and committed schemes

Forecast demand excluding leakage savings WAFU from other potential options

Forecast demand including leakage savings Additional WAFU required Desalination Plant Environmental Effects

TGWTP energy consumption optimised by:

„ Energy recovery technology incorporated at each of the 4 stages of the RO process

„ Abstraction of less salty ‘ebb’ tide water to minimise energy required for treatment process.

„ Plant operation managed according to ‘need’ in dry years, such that average consumption over the plant’s 25 year lifespan is reduced to 5.8 MW.

„ Commitment to a section106 agreement to ensure delivery of a 10% renewable energy contribution. R&D Drives Down Desalination Cost

3

Energy requirement 2 US$/m3 Desalinated 2 water price ex- plant 1 US$/m3 US$/m3 1 0.7 US$/m3 ?

Conventional Water Supplies 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 S : \ W at Total London Reservoir Storage (Ml) er Res o u r c e s \ W R

P l anni ng Gro up\ Dat a \ S i t uat i on Repo rt \ L o n d o n S t orag es 200 3\ L o n d o n 20 03 London ReservoirStorage 2003 S t orage – P

S p i l l e t 4-10 - 2 0 0 4

Percent of usable capacity Teddington TargetFlows 800 Ml/d 300 Ml/d 400 Ml/d 600 Ml/d Drought Orders Level 3– Level 2– Level 1– Level 4– Res t rictions onCustome

H M R S prinkl osepipe Bans& ota Cuts edia Campaign er Bans r

s S : \ W at Total London Reservoir Storage (Ml) er Res o u r c e s \ W R

P l anni ng Gro up\ Dat a \ S i t uat i on Repo rt \ L o n d o n S t orag es 200 3\ L o n d o n 20 03 S t orage P r e d i London ReservoirStorage c t i on2 – P

S p i l l e t 4- 10 -2 00 4 Predicted storage using{

Percent of usable capacity { Teddington TargetFlows 800 Ml/d 300 Ml/d 400 Ml/d 600 Ml/d Level 4– Drought Orders Level 3– Level 2– Level 1– Res 2002/03 Rainfall 1975/76 Rainfall Actual 2004 Rese t rictions onCustome rvoir

H M R S Storage prinkl osepipe Bans& ota Cuts edia Campaign er Bans r

s UpperUpper ThamesThames ReservoirReservoir proposal:proposal: locationlocation ofof sitesite investigationsinvestigations Project description (1)

„ Fully bunded reservoir with inlet and draw-off facilities

„ WTW (Farmoor extension)

„ Proposed combined intake/outfall works at Culham Reach on the River Thames

„ Transfer tunnels, pumping station and ancillary works

„ Associated works (access roads and drainage) Upper Thames Reservoir Draft Schematic Draft Determination Update - Demand Draft Determination “Managing Water Supplies”, EA, July ‘04 Metering Supportive but reduced costs Increase level of activity and report progress in 2005 annual review

Efficiency Enhancement campaign Increase level of activity and refused report progress in 2005 annual review

Leakage Support for mains rehab, but More progress required on significant cut back and leakage reduction with efficiencies applied progress reported in quarterly updates from autumn ‘04 Draft Determination Update - Supply

Desalination

„ Draft Determination: Supportive but reduced funding

„ “Managing Water Supplies” (EA): “ The Company needs to make rapid progress with this plant, as well as increasing demand management…”

Upper Thames Reservoir

„ Draft Determination: Funded preparatory studies but not the Public Inquiry

„ “Managing Water Supplies” (EA):Want preparatory studies to be got underway.