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HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) CMP: | 1521 Target: | 1800 (18%) Target Period: 12 months BUY July 19, 2021 Pandemic hits quarter; geared to push recovery ahead About the stock: HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. The bank has maintained superior return ratios compared to its peers resulting in premium valuations. Particulars Largest private sector bank with loan book of over | 11 lakh crore Particulars Amount Consistent performance with +4% NIM and +15% RoE in past many years Market Capitalisation | 841000 crore GNPA (Q1FY22) | 17098 crore NNPA (Q1FY22) | 5485 crore Update Result NIM % (Q1FY22) 4.1 52 week H/L 1650/994 Q1FY22 Results: HDFC Bank’s performance was below expectations considering Networth | 203721 crore the tough environment. Face value | 1 DII holding (%) 21.5 Loans were up 14.4% YoY at | 11.4 lakh crore with deposits up 13.2% YoY FII holding (%) 39.4 NII up 8.6% YoY, NIM down 10 bps QoQ at 4.1%, C/I down QoQ to 35% Shareholding pattern GNPA accretion higher at 15 bps QoQ to 1.47%, r/s book at 80 bps (in %) Jun-20 Sept-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 GNPA doubled in HDB at 7.75%; further trend remains in focus Promoter 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 FII 37.0 37.4 39.4 39.8 39.4 DII 21.9 22.7 21.5 21.0 21.5 Others 15.0 13.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 What should investors do? HDFC Bank’s share price has grown by ~2.5x over the past five years. Price Chart 2000 20000 We remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock 1500 15000 1000 10000 Target Price and Valuation: We value HDFC Bank at ~3.7x FY23E ABV and | 50 500 5000 0 0 for subsidiaries to arrive at a revised target price of | 1800. Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 HDFC Bank Nifty Index Key triggers for future price performance: Recent Event & Key risks Research Equity Retail Strategy to expand segments, geography & digital focus to aid future growth – Total provisions at 146% of reported Stressed accretion elevated; higher specific provision and contingency GNPA levels. buffer of 70 bps provides comfort Key Risk: Delay in lifting of credit card Encouraging demand resolution & superior franchise to aid earnings revival ban; continued elevated accretion of stress, especially in HDB Research Analyst Securities ICICI Alternate Stock Idea: Apart from HDFC Bank, we also like Axis Bank. Kajal Gandhi Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision [email protected] buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory BUY with target price of | 900 Vishal Narnolia [email protected] Sameer Sawant Key Financial Summary [email protected] 3 year CAGR 2 year CAGR | Crore FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (FY18-21) (FY21-23E) NII 40,095 48,243 56,186 64,880 17% 73,652 84,797 14% PPP 32,625 39,750 48,750 57,362 21% 63,811 73,437 13% PAT 17,487 21,078 26,257 31,117 21% 36,095 42,782 17% ABV (|) 199.8 268.0 305.4 361.3 412.1 475.0 P/E 45.1 39.3 31.8 26.9 23.2 19.6 P/ABV 7.6 5.7 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.2 RoA 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 RoE 17.9 16.5 16.4 16.6 16.5 17.1 ss Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | HDFC Bank ICICI Direct Research Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights Q1FY22 Results: Decent overall performance Marred by lockdown, loan growth sequentially saw moderation at 1.3% QoQ and 14.4% YoY. Growth was primarily driven by wholesale loans (up 18.1% YoY) while retail loans showed uptick of 10.2% YoY NIM was negatively impacted due to lower yield product mix, lower revolver share in credit cards, interest reversals due to NPA. NII growth would have been higher by 6% YoY, if NIM was not negatively impacted Provisions stayed elevated at | 4830 crore, including | 600 crore as contingent provisions. This led to moderation in earnings at 16.1% YoY to | 7729 crore GNPA ratio was up 15 bps sequentially to 1.47%, mainly due to higher slippages at 2.54% vs. 1.66% QoQ. Recoveries came in at 14 bps of gross loans vs. 26 bps QoQ. Of total slippages at ~| 1700 crore, agri slippages were at | 900 crore. Write-offs for Q1FY22 were at | 3100 crore Q1FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights Business growth is seeing uptick since June. Wholesale credit book is largely coming from PSUs. Commercial banking lending has picked up in June Disbursements have been near pre-Covid levels in July. Retail demand in June- July has revived to 80% of January-March levels. SME customers have utilised only 70-75% of limits, which leaves scope for pick up in credit offtake The bank has gained market share in tractor segment to over 5% Total 80% of corporate book is rated AAA and AA Deposit franchisee is further gaining granularity as 88% of CASA is retail Bounce rates have recovered in June and July compared to April and May. Collections have also seen improvement and are near March 2021 levels Restructured book is at ~70 bps. We expect some restructuring approval to follow in Q2FY22. Slippage from ECLGS book remains immaterial No restructuring was done in HDB Financial during the quarter. As on March 2021, the restructured book was at | 3650 crore Contribution of card business at 25-33% of fee based income The bank is awaiting communication from RBI regarding its IT audit and release of ban but is geared up to boost growth once restrictions on digital initiatives are lifted Peer comparison Exhibit 1: Peer Comparison CMP M Cap EPS (|) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company (|) TP(|) Rating (| Bn) FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E Axis Bank (AXIBAN) 771 900 Buy 2364 25.2 47.7 58.7 30.6 16.2 13.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.4 8.1 13.8 15.2 City Union (CITUNI) 162 200 Buy 120 8.4 10.0 12.0 19.4 16.1 13.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 11.2 11.9 12.6 DCB Bank (DCB) 108 110 Buy 34 10.8 12.3 15.6 10.0 8.8 6.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 10.2 10.5 11.8 Federal Bank (FEDBAN) 88 95 Buy 175 8.0 11.2 13.7 11.0 7.9 6.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.1 10.4 13.2 14.7 HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 1,521 1,800 Buy 8410 56.4 66.4 77.8 26.9 22.9 19.6 4.2 3.8 3.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 16.6 17.0 17.9 IndusInd Bank (INDBA) 1,045 1,100 Buy 808 36.7 63.6 76.3 28.5 16.4 13.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 7.3 10.6 11.3 Kotak Bank (KOTMAH) 1,750 2,040 Buy 3470 35.1 43.2 51.4 49.8 40.6 34.0 5.7 5.0 4.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 12.4 12.0 13.1 IDFC First (IDFBAN) 54 65 Buy 335 0.8 1.6 2.9 67.8 34.2 18.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.7 4.6 7.1 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research We believe HDFC Bank trades at a premium to its peers owing to superior return ratios and consistency over long time frame, which is expected to continue ahead. ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | HDFC Bank ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Variance Analysis Q1FY22 Q1FY22E Q1FY21 YoY (%) Q4FY21 QoQ (%) Comments NII 17,009.0 17,191.0 15,665.4 8.6 17,120.2 -0.6 Impacted by moderate business growth and fall in Decline due to increased CRR requirement, low NIM (%) 4.1 4.1 4.3 -20 bps 4.2 10 bps yielding asset mix and interest reversals due to Other Income 6,288.5 7,062.7 4,075.3 54.3 7,593.9 -17.2 Boosted by forex income Net Total Income 23,297.5 24,253.7 19,740.7 18.0 24,714.1 -5.7 Staff cost 2,765.6 2,739.6 2,513.4 10.0 2,678.9 3.2 Other Operating Expenses 5,394.9 6,157.2 4,398.0 22.7 6,502.4 -17.0 Decline due to lower on ground business activiity PPP 15,137.0 15,356.8 12,829.3 18.0 15,532.8 -2.5 Elevated due to higher slippages and creation of Provision 4,830.8 3,901.5 3,891.5 24.1 4,693.7 2.9 contingency provisions PBT 10,306.2 11,455.3 8,937.8 15.3 10,839.1 -4.9 Tax 2,576.6 2,944.0 2,279.1 13.0 2,652.6 -2.9 PAT 7,729.6 8,511.3 6,658.6 16.1 8,186.5 -5.6 Impacted by higher credit cost Key Metrics GNPA 17,099 15,586 13,773 24.1 15,086 13.3 Sequential rise led by slippage from agri segment NNPA 5,486 4,805 3,280 67.3 4,555 20.4 Loan growth moderated especially in retail segment Advances 1,147,652 1,147,500 1,003,291 14.4 1,132,837 1.3 due to lockdowns Deposits 1,345,829 1,346,000 1,189,387 13.2 1,335,060 0.8 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Change in estimates FY22E FY23E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Interest Income 74,383.1 73,652.1 -1.0 85,620.4 84,797.0 -1.0 Pre Provision Profit 64,265.4 63,811.5 -0.7 17,320.1 16,010.7 -7.6 NIM calculated (%) 4.2 4.1 -16 bps 4.3 4.1 -16 bps PAT 36,583.7 36,095.1 -1.3 42,885.8 42,782.3 -0.2 ABV (|) 402.1 412.1 2.5 442.2 475.0 7.4 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 4: Assumption Current Earlier FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY21 FY22E FY23E Credit growth (%) 24.5 21.3 14.0 16.9 17.3 14.0 17.1 17.4 Deposit Growth (%) 17.0 24.3 16.3 18.4 17.6 16.3 16.9 17.3 CASA ratio (%) 42.4 42.2 45.4 44.3 43.2 44.6 44.2 43.0 NIM Calculated (%) 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 Cost to income ratio (%) 39.7 38.6 36.3 37.2 36.7 36.3 37.0 36.4 GNPA (| crore) 11,224 12,650 19,060 22,169 23,993 15,086.0 20,127.5 24,486.8 NNPA (| crore) 3,215 3,542 6,157 6,380 6,977 4,554.8 4,839.2 7,610.1 Slippage ratio (%) 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 Credit cost (%) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | HDFC Bank ICICI Direct Research Financial summary Exhibit 5: Profit and loss statement | crore Exhibit 6: Key Ratios (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E (Year-end March) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E Interest Earned 114813 120858 140911 164316 Valuation Interest Expended 58626 55979 67259 79519 No.
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