Sustainable Development in a Complex World PhD Thesis Alex Robert Trisoglio University College London 1996 B1gL. LONDILuwy. Abstract The thesis examines the development of theoretical models and practical tools for understanding and making decisions regarding sustainable development (SD) in a complex world. It seeks to answer three questions: What is the meaning of SD in a complex world? What are the implications for our policies and institutions? • What tools can we use to assist decision-making for SD in a complex world? The thesis examines these issues by bringing together thinking and research within complex systems theory, cultural theory and management theory. It also draws on the environmental and SD literatures, which are in turn associated with several disciplines including geography, economics and environmental science. The thesis is in four parts: The first part explores the diversity of SD definitions and the two main policy models for SD. It identifies the need for a theoretical explanation of the plurality of perspectives in the SD debate, and also for an integration of insights from complexity theory into SD definitions and policy models. The second part introduces complexity theory and cultural theory, and examines how they can support development of an improved understanding of sustainability. The third part applies complexity theory and cultural theory to analyse SD policies. It argues that these theories yield significant new insights about sustainability, including highlighting the importance of plurality and resilience in policy making for sustainability. The final part explores how the theories and tools developed by management science can be applied to sustainability, especially in increasing the plurality and resilience of SD decision making. It demonstrates that scenarios can promote the organisational learning and institutional resilience needed for sustainability, and that cultural theory provides an appropriate theoretical basis for scenario-building. The thesis concludes by developing a set of SD scenarios and analysing the results from their application. 2 Table of Contents Abstract .2 List of Tables and Figures . 8 Chapter1: Introduction..................................................................................................10 1.1. Sustainable Development in a Complex World: An Overview..................10 1.2. Introduction to the Thesis............................................................................12 Chapter2: Methodology ................................................................................................16 2.1. Introduction.................................................................................................16 2.2. The Three Theoretical Roots of the Thesis.................................................16 2.3. Thesis Structure...........................................................................................19 Chapter 3: Typologies of Sustainable Development Definitions - A Review...............22 3.1. Introduction.................................................................................................22 3.2. Frameworks for Understanding Sustainability............................................23 3.2.1. Two-Fold Distinctions within Sustainability...............................24 3.2.2. Multipolar Distinctions within Sustainability..............................29 3.2.3. Systems Approaches for Understanding Sustainability...............33 3.2.4. Economic Approaches for Understanding Sustainability............35 3.3. Summary and Ways Forward......................................................................38 Chapter 4: Two Policy Models for Sustainable Development.......................................40 4.1. Introduction.................................................................................................40 4.2. The Comprehensive/Rational Policy Model...............................................40 4.3. The Complex/Adaptive Policy Model ........................................................45 4.4. Science and Policy......................................................................................50 4.5. The Role of Modelling................................................................................51 4.6. The Comprehensive/Rational Policy Model in the Climate Change Debate.....................................................................................................53 3 4.7. Conclusions .57 Chapter 5: Complexity...................................................................................................59 5.1. Introduction................................................................................................. 59 5.1.1. The Scope of Complexity Theory................................................ 59 5.2. The Newtonian Revolution.........................................................................61 5.3. Reductionism in Modelling, Thought and Language..................................64 5.4. The Behaviour of Non-linear Systems........................................................69 5.4.1. The Economy as a Non-linear System.........................................74 5.5. Surprise, Creativity and Evolutionary Change............................................76 5.5.1. Models of Evolutionary Change ..................................................77 5.6. Complexity..................................................................................................85 5.7. Conclusions.................................................................................................88 Chapter 6: Examples of Complexity in the Sustainable Development Debate..............90 6.1. Introduction.................................................................................................90 6.2. The Prevalence of Uncertainty....................................................................90 6.3. The Presence of Complexity at All Levels .................................................91 6.4. Conclusions.................................................................................................93 Chapter7: Cultural Theory ............................................................................................ 95 7.1. Introduction.................................................................................................95 7.2. An Overview of Cultural Theory................................................................96 7.2.1. Myths of Nature .........................................................................102 7.3. Applications of Cultural Theory to Environmental Policy.......................104 7.4. Resilience and Plural Institutions..............................................................110 7.5. Conclusions...............................................................................................112 Chapter8: Sustainable Development - An Analysis....................................................113 8.1. Introduction...............................................................................................113 8.2. Definitions of SD ......................................................................................113 8.2.1. Establishing Three Benchmark Policy Perspectives..................114 8.2.2. A Cultural Analysis of Perspectives on Sustainability ..............118 4 8.2.3. A Note on Individualism and Sustainability . 124 8.3. Conclusions...............................................................................................126 Chapter9: Cultural Theory and Complexity................................................................128 9.1. Introduction...............................................................................................128 9.2. Classification and Cultural Theory ...........................................................128 9.2.1. Cultural Theory: Continuous or Discrete9.................................129 9.2.2. Rhetoric Stealing, Alliances and Plural Myths..........................131 9.2.3. A Cultural Explanation of Change and Surprise........................133 9.2.4. Origins and Evolution in Cultural Theory .................................134 9.3. Cultural Theory and Complexity ..............................................................136 9.3.1. The Ecologists' Myths of Nature: Holling and Timmerman.....137 9.3.2. Myths of Nature in Cultural Theory: A Resolution...................140 9.3.3. Cultural Theory and Complexity ...............................................142 9.4. Conclusions...............................................................................................144 Chapter10: Resilience, Learning and Sustainability...................................................146 10.1. Introduction.............................................................................................146 10.2. Cultural Theory and Complexity: Areas of Agreement..........................146 10.3. Cultural Theory and Complexity: Areas of Difference...........................149 10.4. Learning and Resilience..........................................................................151 10.5. Resilience and Diversity .........................................................................156 10.6. Conclusions.............................................................................................160 Chapter 11: Sustainable Development in a Complex World.......................................162 11.1. Introduction.............................................................................................162