Divided Government, Deadlock and the Survival of Presidents and Presidential Regimes José Antonio Cheibub University of Pennsylvania
[email protected] Presented at the conference “Constitutional Design 2000,” December 9-11, 1999, Center for Continuing Education, University of Notre Dame Introduction1 Of the 133 transitions to and from democracy that occurred in the world between 1946 and 1996, 59 took place in Latin America.2 Early theorizing on the causes of political instability in the region has tended to focus on structural variables -- the degree of dependency, the level of inequality, poverty, and so on -- which supposedly created conditions that were conducive to the demise of democratic regimes. Recent research has moved away from this focus on economic and social conditions and has concentrated instead on the impact of institutional features on the survival and operation of democracy in Latin America. Stimulated by the formulations first advanced by Juan Linz (1994),3 the breakdown of democratic regimes and the alleged “crisis of governability” of new democracies have been attributed to presidentialism, which, in combination with permissive electoral systems and weakly institutionalized political parties produce divided governments, deadlocks, institutional paralysis and, ultimately, the breakdown of democratic institutions. Yet, Latin American democracies, all of which are presidential, survive in many countries, even as governments implement policies aimed at radically restructuring their economies. This fact suggests that we need to take another look at arguments that attribute to presidentialism a causal impact on regime instability in Latin America. Or at least that we need to reconsider the causal mechanisms that are allegedly responsible for presidentialism's relatively poor performance.