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A Society Divided A SOCIETY DIVIDED HOW UNEQUAL EDUCATION QUALITY LIMITS SOCIAL MOBILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA Synthesis report for the Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development (PSPPD) Eldridge Moses, Servaas van der Berg and Kate Rich UNIVERSITEIT STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY A SOCIETY DIVIDED HOW UNEQUAL EDUCATION QUALITY LIMITS SOCIAL MOBILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA Synthesis report for the Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development (PSPPD) February 2017 Eldridge Moses, Servaas van der Berg and Kate Rich UNIVERSITEIT STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch This report is available online at resep.sun.ac.za Acknowledgements This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the Programme to Support Pro-Poor Policy Development (PSPPD), a partnership programme of the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (DPME) and the European Union. The contents of this report can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation and the European Union. The authors wish to acknowledge valuable inputs into this process by Cobus Burger, Rulof Burger, Chanda Chiseni, Junior Tariro Chiweza, Jeanne Cilliers, Carol Nuga Deliwe, Johan Fourie, Heleen Hofmeyr, Janeli Kotzé, Wawa Nkosi, Nompumelelo Mohohlwane, Marlies Rothkegel, Silke Rothkegel van Velden, Debra Shepherd, Nicholas Spaull, Hendrik van Broekhuizen, Chris van Wyk, Dieter von Fintel, Marisa von Fintel, Gabrielle Wills & Asmus Zoch. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................... 1 4 UNEQUAL CHANCES: LABOUR MARKET Background and context ������������������������������ 1 INEQUALITY ................................................ 41 Methodology ������������������������������������������������� 2 4�1 Labour market returns to educational attainment in South Africa ����������������� 41 Main findings ������������������������������������������������ 3 BOX 4: Unfulfilled expectations: 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................ 5 The gap between objective and subjective social mobility ������������������ 46 2 EDUCATION AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN 4�2 The role of education quality in SOUTH AFRICA ............................................. 7 labour market outcomes �������������������� 48 2�1 Inequality in South Africa: recent trends ���������������������������������������������������� 7 BOX 5: Convexity or Heterogeneity? Estimates of the shape of the BOX 1: Migration and social mobility earnings profile ���������������������������������� 48 in South Africa ������������������������������������ 10 4�3 Conclusion ������������������������������������������ 50 2�2 Education and Social Mobility �����������11 2�2�1 Public education and social 5 CONCLUSION ............................................ 51 mobility ������������������������������������� 12 6 REFERENCES ............................................. 53 2�2�2 The intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status and education in South Africa ����������������������������������������� 13 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES 2�3 Education quality as a tool for social Figure E1: South Africa’s dualistic school mobility in South Africa: a conceptual system and labour market ������������� 1 framework ������������������������������������������� 17 Figure 2�1: Poverty headcount by BOX 2: Intergenerational mobility municipality (2011) ������������������������� 7 during South Africa’s mineral Figure 2�2: Conditional probability of revolution �������������������������������������������� 18 employment, 2007 ������������������������� 9 Figure 2�3: Poverty gap (depth of poverty) 3 UNEQUAL CHANCES: THE EDUCATION by municipality, 2011 �������������������� 10 SYSTEM ....................................................... 20 Figure 2�4: Net inter-municipal migration 3�1 Spectacular growth in educational rates, 2011 ������������������������������������� 10 attainment over time �������������������������� 22 Figure 2�5: Earnings functions for 3�2 Inequality in education quality: provincial migrants and non- recent evidence ���������������������������������� 25 migrants, 2011 ��������������������������������11 3�3 Inequality from the outset: The case Figure 2�6: Access to basic services by for early intervention ������������������������� 30 migration status, 2011 �������������������11 3�4 Access to and performance at Figure 2�7: Probability of black person being university ������������������������������������������� 35 in enrolled in education by age, BOX 3: The Importance of matric 2008 to 2014 ���������������������������������� 14 performance for University Figure 2�8: Pass rates by race and Grade outcomes �������������������������������������������� 38 (2008 to 2014) ������������������������������� 15 3�5 Conclusion ������������������������������������������ 40 Figure 2�9: South Africa’s dualistic school system and labour market ����������� 17 Figure 2�10: Absolute intergenerational Figure 3�15: University access and success for mobility: proportion of sons the 2008 matric cohort (i�e� the experiencing occupational 2004 Grade 8 cohort) ������������������� 35 mobility, by father’s occupational Figure 3�16: Social spending by spending group, over time ��������������������������� 19 category, 2006 ������������������������������ 36 Figure 2�11: Relative intergenerational mobility: Figure 3�17: Racial composition of degree proportion of sons experiencing holders, by race (1960 – 2011) ������ 37 occupational mobility, by father’s Figure 3�18: University access rates by school occupational group, over time� ��� 19 quintile – all candidates versus Figure 3�1: Literacy scores for 2007 Grade 3 Bachelor candidates �������������������� 38 cohort, 2007 to 2009��������������������� 21 Figure 3�19: Cumulative matric average Figure 3�2: Educational attainment growth achievement distribution for the for black South Africans, by birth 2008 matric cohort, by race ��������� 39 cohort �������������������������������������������� 22 Figure 4�1: Log of hourly wage rate, by Figure 3�3: Number of individuals with matric completed years of education 1960 to 2011 (by race) ������������������� 23 (2007) ��������������������������������������������� 43 Figure 3�4: Educational attainment for Figure 4�2: Narrow unemployment rates 2000 individuals aged 25 years and to 2015, by educational attainment older, by race (1993) ��������������������� 23 category ���������������������������������������� 44 Figure 3�5: Comprehension and computation Figure 4�3: Returns to education by birth year test scores (out of 14) for black cohort ������������������������������������������� 45 individuals in 1993, by completed Figure 3�4: Average education attainment years of education ������������������������ 24 advantage of black individuals, by Figure 3�6: PrePIRLS Grade 4 reading scores, birth year compared to those born by quintile ( 2011) ������������������������� 25 in 1945) ������������������������������������������ 46 Figure 3�7: South African TIMMS Mathematics Figure 4�5: Educational attainment differences and Science scores (1995 to 2015) between children and best- ������������������������������������������������������� 26 educated parent���������������������������� 47 Figure 3�8: South African TIMMS Mathematics Figure 4�6: Schooling-earnings profile for scores (2015) ��������������������������������� 27 black males, 15 to 30 (1995 to 2012) Figure 3�9: Trends in mathematics marks ������������������������������������������������������� 49 trends for full-time Grade 12 Figure 4�7: CF estimates of school-earnings learners, unadjusted for changes profiles, for various individual in difficulty levels ������������������������� 28 schooling error terms* ����������������� 50 Figure 3�10: Mathematics marks for 32 stable schools, 2008 to 2015 (by select Table 2�1: Intra-group income / expenditure quantile) ���������������������������������������� 29 inequality: Gini coefficients 1970 Figure 3�11: Mathematics mark trends for full- to 2011 ��������������������������������������������� 8 time Grade 12 learners (adjusted) Table 3�1: Regression: Undergraduate access, ������������������������������������������������������� 29 completion, conversion and Figure 3�12: Number of students on track dropout rates – no controls ��������� 39 by Grade and school quintile Table 3�2: Undergraduate access, completion, (ANA, 2012) ����������������������������������� 32 conversion and dropout rates – Figure 3�13: Proportion of entering cohort on controlling for matric performance track in various Grades ANA 2012 ������������������������������������������������������� 40 (to Grade 9) and Bachelor passes, Table 4�1: Effect of change in educational by national school quintile ���������� 33 distribution on wage inequality ��� 45 Figure 3�14: South African Learning Trajectories by School Quintiles ���������������������� 34 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive summary Background and context The central focus of this research project is the investigation of the role of education in promoting social mobility for the poor in the highly unequal South African economic landscape� The investigation is of particular relevance in a country where the rapid expansion of educational attainment since the 1970s has not produced the desired labour market outcomes for many South Africans, for the most part perpetuating patterns of poverty and inequality along the apartheid dimensions of race and geography� Given the deep structural nature of inequality in South Africa, this report employs a conceptual framework (shown in Figure E1) to illustrate
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